ADS-IJIS 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: July poll

[Juan C. García]

A new month has started!

This ADS Arctic Sea Ice Extent (ADS also known as IJIS, JAXA and NIPR) poll will run for 10 days. Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various ADS-IJIS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.

[AbruptSLR]

I think that we are still on-track to be in the range of the 2012 low.

[jplotinus]

I will wait and observe what the Arctic has to say about the matter over the next 9 days. I have learned that it is better to observe all possible data before making the wrong guess anyway. 😏

[magnamentis]

i stick to the 3.75 > 4.00 like in June, a new low will still not happen without extraordinary events but this time we could get close in a relative straight line. of course with the right storm in late august many things can happen but outliers are exactly that, outliers, hence nothing to count on.

[Jim Pettit]

As 2016 falls farther and farther behind, and we continue to see nothing at this point that would indicate this year's extent minimum will stand out in any spectacular way. Based on that, I went with 4.00-4.25. It will take a three million km2 July plus a two million km2 August to stay within shouting distance of the head of the pack, so if this month shows a bit more promise, I may drop down a notch. But we'll have to see...

[seaicesailor]

I stay at 3.5 to 3.75 but ready to go up, not so much down. Always below 2007.
Surprisingly, Laptev is very much closed, not only ESS. That curiously can change things wrt previous years. Melting momentum requires IMO open water as well as surface melting and no much of either. The albedo amplification time may pass and melting front can fail to propagate.
We will see during these two weeks.

[Sleepy]

I'll stick with the same as last month, 4.00-4.25.

[magnamentis]

As 2016 falls farther and farther behind, and we continue to see nothing at this point that would indicate this year's extent minimum will stand out in any spectacular way. Based on that, I went with 4.00-4.25. It will take a three million km2 July plus a two million km2 August to stay within shouting distance of the head of the pack, so if this month shows a bit more promise, I may drop down a notch. But we'll have to see...

isn't falling behind a bit off? even when 2016 will fall behind a bit after 2-3 weeks of reduced area and extent melt, as we can see from the past, what comes after the stall has usually been an acceleration against other years. things have rarely been linear, depending on weather there have always been wave like lines with pauses and cliffs. the below attached shot shows the situation as per yesterday.

that said 4-4-25 is very reasonable indeed, would be my 2nd choice while i'm not tending to judge things from, or change my opinion from snapshots, more relaying on the overall picture and from that point of view ( it may change of course ) the ice conditions are still poor and since patterns often change, the next change would mean increased melt. of course the possibility remains that the current conditions will prevail. there are seasons like that. i remember that there were years we were waiting an entire season for the usually prevailing winds in else perfect windsurf spots :-)

[Richard Rathbone]

I still think 4.25ish is the place to be. I'm not seeing anything that says the Shroeder melt pond analysis from last month is being overtaken by events, and CT area in June fell down the ranking list which is a sign of poor momentum. Their June analysis is quite a lot more reliable as a predictor than their May one, but in its absence I don't see any reason to change my expectation that we are headed towards a similar minimum to last year.

[Jim Pettit]

isn't falling behind a bit off?

No.

In saying "falling behind", I'm referring to the rate of decrease. June 2016 had the second slowest average daily extent loss for all Junes from 2005 onward. That 2005-2015 average is 68k; last month averaged 50k. IOW, 2016 fell behind all other years by an average of 18k per day. In doing so, it relinquished its once-commanding lead, falling to second (and is now close to falling out of the top three altogether).

That's all I meant.

[Archimid]

I'm waiting for the piomas volume update. Once I see that I'll place my vote.

[Tor Bejnar]

...
things have rarely been linear, depending on weather there have always been wave like lines with pauses and cliffs. .
..

BFTV's weekly graphs in the "2016 sea ice area and extent data" thread show these wave-like "pauses and cliffs": 

June 2016 melting certainly averaged as 'relatively slow', but I don't think this melting 'pause' was so extreme (minimal) as to seriously predict what will happen in July and beyond.  As the 'ultimate' standard for a melting season is minimum sea ice area, extent and/or volume (different foci for different folks, for sure), I'm pretty sure it is still 'weather' that will determine where 2016 will fall in the rankings. 

Some years have particularly significant weather (average weather for the month) in June that sets up an unlikely record melt season.  I don't think this is true for 2016.  I think the late-December through May Arctic conditions will give June a 'pass'.  A slow or average July, though ...

[magnamentis]

...
things have rarely been linear, depending on weather there have always been wave like lines with pauses and cliffs. .
..

BFTV's weekly graphs in the "2016 sea ice area and extent data" thread show these wave-like "pauses and cliffs": 

June 2016 melting certainly averaged as 'relatively slow', but I don't think this melting 'pause' was so extreme (minimal) as to seriously predict what will happen in July and beyond.  As the 'ultimate' standard for a melting season is minimum sea ice area, extent and/or volume (different foci for different folks, for sure), I'm pretty sure it is still 'weather' that will determine where 2016 will fall in the rankings. 

Some years have particularly significant weather (average weather for the month) in June that sets up an unlikely record melt season.  I don't think this is true for 2016.  I think the late-December through May Arctic conditions will give June a 'pass'.  A slow or average July, though ...

yep 

[jdallen]

I think that we are still on-track to be in the range of the 2012 low.

Based on my observation of loss to minimum from this date, melt required to hit 2012 is now more than 2 standard deviations past average.

I'd go with 4.0-4.25, but I have a hunch that the current highly fragmented state of the ice combined with extraordinarily warm marginal ocean temperatures will end up knocking things down a bucket to 3.75-4.0.  I'm fairly confident we'll pass 2007, but reaching or passing 2012 is very unlikely at this point.

[Neven]

I voted 4.0-4.25 for now, may change it before voting closes. Last month I voted 3.5-3.75, so up two bins.

And the NSIDC 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: July poll is up too!

[Juan C. García]

As I had explained before, my forecast method consists in taking IJIS yesterday value and then use the average drop of 2007, 2011 and 2015. I choose these years because they are the worst, taking out 2012. I believe that Arctic sea ice conditions, temperature at seas and Arctic weather have changed in the past decade, so using the second to fourth worst years is a behavior that I expect.

My new forecast is 3.75-4.00 million km2. My last month forecast was 3.5-3.75, so I'm going up one bin.

I thought about going to 4.00-4.25, maybe I will do it next week.

[abbottisgone]

I'm doubling down: 2.75 to 3.00 again    ()

[Michael Hauber]

3.75 to 4.00.  Same as last time.  Not going to go up as the ice has deteriorated a bit further than I expected in the rather cool weather, and there does seem to be a change to a warmer pattern on the way.

[jplotinus]

Because I've voted for an extreme low of 1.75-2.00 in prior months' polling, I think it necessary to take the full advantage of available time to vote in July. So I'm waiting until July 10 data are available before voting. I'm not doubting prior votes and will go 1.75-2.00 again this month unless July 10 data suggest a vote that low isn't warranted.

As of today, there's been a century drop for the first time since the month of May; and, SST's throughout the entire Arctic basin show up as being comparatively warm everywhere, with virtually no exceptions at all. It seems to me that the sst data point is a good one to rely on because it is inclusive of the entire Arctic Ocean, without placing undue emphasis on any particular area, to the exclusion of others. By that comprehensive indicator, all current sea ice, everywhere in the arctic region is being subjected to a amorous warmth:

[jdallen]

Looking again at the quality of the ice, the potential for weather to stir it up, total heat in the system, and average melt over the last decade, I decided to drop my guestimate down one bucket to 3.5-3.75.

[NeilT]

I moved mine down one bin for this poll and left the NSIDC where it is.

The ice is slightly lower than I expected and generally in a total mess.  But I'm in a much less lonely place this month.  There weren't many with me last month, now I'm smack in the middle of the two highest votes.

[Paddy]

Going up two bins to 3.75 - 4.0

[Archimid]

 PIOMASS is in. Time to make my vote. I voted 0 again. I think that the relatively slow June was mostly due to two things.
1. The Sun went very quiet.
2. A strong El niño is no longer active and it is at neutral/almost la niña. Now the La niña seemed to have stabilized. Global weather however has not. The silence of typhoons in the pacific is an eerie sign from an energy conservation point of view. Heatwaves in Russia and Canada are at full swing.  The Atlantic is remarkably warm.  The all the blobs of temperatures anomaly are still there. I think chances for freak weather are very high. I remain at 0, even when the likelihood for such event are down to weather, because the potential for catastrophic weather is there. 

[epiphyte]

Dropping one bin, to 2.75-3.00. Mainly because that's one below my new guess at the NSIDC.

[jplotinus]

Voted 2.75-3.00

That is a dramatic upward move from 1.75-2.00 in June poll. I here offer apologies for abandoning the intrepid group I was in at that prior low-low level.

Reasons for going up are:

First, 2.75-3.00 is still a record low prediction (or wild ass guess).
Second, as of June, the 2016 SIE was still 1milliin+km2 below 2012, thus 1million below 2012 in September was a reasoned guess, after a fashion.
Third, I'm still using 2012 as a frame of reference because 2016 is still below 2012 in the two areas that served to comprise almost all of the 2012 September minimum; namely: CAB and Greenland Sea. Everywhere else virtually melted out in 2012. Thus far this year, only the ESS and Laptev may be said to be lagging. It's possible the September level in those two will have some remaining ice, but it won't likely be very much, if any at all.
At present, the CAB has well more than 50% of the existing Arctic sea ice. The question is whether the September low in the CAB will rival that of 2012--about 2.8million km2? Given all that can be observed on the condition of the CAB and given the temperature forecast calling for at or above normal temperatures and temperature anomalies for the foreseeable forecast period (per climate reanalyzer), 2016 should continue to stay ahead of or match 2012 in the CAB.
As for Greenland Sea, 2016 is well ahead of 2012 and temperatures there look to be on the high side in coming days, aiding further melt in that area.

Here's a depiction using the 2012 minimum and two of Wipneus' charts to illustrate my guess. Come to think on it, the best approach to prediction might simply be to ask Wipneus. 😳

[Juan C. García]

The time has come: 2 ¹/₂ days to give your vote 

[cats]

Just shifted my vote/guess up a bin to 3.75-4.0 from last time - probably still too low, just have to wait and see :-)

[jplotinus]

If the September 2016 SIE minimum turns out to be significantly higher than 2012, then Jim Petite's graph is going to look rather unsymmetrical. Put differently, 2016 has been consistently at or below all other satellite-era years every month this year, per Jim's visually informative graphing system.

Furthermore, since much of the remaining ice is in regions that usually melt out to the level of 0<100k km2, in particular Laptev and ESS, a vote in the 2.75-3.00 bin is no more, or less, arbitrary than are the more popular voting bins that are in the >4.00 range.

[Juan C. García]

Last opportunity to make your vote. In 18 hours this poll will end!
I will stay between 3.75 and 4.0 million km2.

[Tigertown]

I also picked 3.75-4.0 and am starting to feel pretty strong about that range. Also, if you mentally extrapolate Slater's fifty day outlook thinga-mawhingy it appears that it will level off in the same ballpark for mid September.

[slow wing]

I went 2.75-3.00 million square kilometres for this daily minimum. That is one bin below the NSIDC poll for the monthly minimum, and for the reasons given in Replies #13 and #27 on that thread.

If it happens it will be a new record low, beating the 2012 record of 3.18 in those units.



Shown above is the monthly average prediction from that thread. For the daily minimum of this thread I would expect less ice, especially on the Russian side.

[Sleepy]

I'll go up one bin to 4.25-4.5.

[Neven]

I'll go up one bin to 4.25-4.5.

Me too. Given the current forecast, it's going to take a period of exceptional weather that is conducive to extent decrease for this year to end in or near the top 3.

[Tor Bejnar]

My vote remains in the '2nd place for 2016' window, only up a couple of bins.  My incorrect projection that PIOMAS June ice losses would not be seriously reduced by June's poor weather leads me to some hope of a non-crash this year.

[Pi26]

My vote is 1.75-2.00. The atlantik was too early and deep within 80N and prepared thus by pumping heat the later melt of entire eurasian half within the circle above 80N. After 3 dC higher January-March temperatures there that ice was also not the strongest from beginning.