Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The Central Arctic Basin  (Read 4223 times)

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 669
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 60
The Central Arctic Basin
« on: July 17, 2016, 05:39:19 PM »
So I've been following the regional figures (mainly on Neven's own regional graphs page https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional) for a while, and it looks like the CAB (Central Arctic Basin) may be melting / opening a little earlier than usual. Do we think this is a genuine effect, if so, what do we think is driving it, and do we think it's going to matter later in the season where the amount of ice left there would be the main statistic making up the total area and extent?

icy voyeur

  • New ice
  • Posts: 63
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2016, 06:05:13 PM »
So I've been following the regional figures ...

Been noticing that too. And, especially in context of other regions that are pretty much guaranteed to melt out anyway. Will CAB ice keep dispersing into regional zones with high melt rates?  I think it's pointing to lower final numbers than many are predicting, certainly approaching the record. I worry it's an unprecedented vulnerability, subject to the next 3 weeks of weather.

Included in that weather concern, how much will dispersed ice permit wave action that will harvest warmth from below? Is just a little bit significant? No clue what the thresholds are for turbulent flow of arctic currents or how much ice re-stabilizes layers. But that's getting far far ahead of things and far outside anything I have even minor competence to address.

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 669
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2016, 06:12:58 PM »
I was having similar thoughts, although I was a tad worried that I was being led to them by confirmation bias. EDIT: Especially considering the small scale of the CAB loss so far.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2016, 07:01:37 PM by Paddy »

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4742
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2016, 08:04:41 PM »
So I've been following the regional figures for a while, and it looks like the CAB (Central Arctic Basin) may be melting / opening a little earlier than usual. Do we think this is a genuine effect?

Likewise!

I think it is genuine, although the situation is not as bad as some are claiming. There is a fair bit of first year ice around, which looks very vulnerable. The acid test will be how well the remaining multi-year ice holds out:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/has-the-ice-clearly-broken-completely-in-two-now/#Jul-16
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3542
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 606
  • Likes Given: 374
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2016, 10:42:40 PM »
The screen shot from the current CAB area graph from the ASI Graphs page [note: click download 'here' (after clicking this link) to see image] suggests CAB has lost about 25% of what 2012 lost or about 40% of what 2015 lost.  I really don't think, however, that we know enough to gauge the impact of this year's early CAB loss.  Like you folks, I am actively wondering!

[Edit: I forgot to include the screen shot, but Nick posted it. (Thanks, Nick!)  By the way, the link works for me. Hmmm.  I corrected the bracketed note above.]
« Last Edit: July 18, 2016, 02:30:38 AM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Nick_Naylor

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2016, 11:00:09 PM »
Tor, I couldn't get your link to work. Is this the graph you are referring to?

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 669
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2016, 08:24:06 PM »
CAB area continues to drop. Looks to be a couple of weeks ahead of the nearest year now...


Seumas

  • New ice
  • Posts: 36
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2016, 10:38:41 AM »
Yes, still ahead.


Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3542
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 606
  • Likes Given: 374
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2016, 02:35:54 PM »
The early CAB ice loss is impressive.  Given the high Arctic temperature drop the DMI graph indicates, I wonder if this ice loss will continue.  Other years lost more ice in the CAB after this date than before it, and if this ratio continues, CAB ice loss will be greater than 2007's.  So for me, there remains a great big question mark!
?
I believe, Seumas, that the image you labeled "cab-2016-07-21" is actually from 2016-7-20 (although I'm sure you copied it today).  (In another ASI Forum thread, there was much todo about taking the time to accurately reference our screen shots.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2016, 03:07:56 PM »
Quote
Yes, still ahead.

Look at the 2nd and 3rd graphics on the link below.  Appears that the "strategy" this year is to DIVIDE AND CONQUER when compared to 2012:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/arctic-antarctic-charts-volume-extent.html

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Seumas

  • New ice
  • Posts: 36
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The Central Arctic Basin
« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2016, 03:33:49 PM »
I believe, Seumas, that the image you labeled "cab-2016-07-21" is actually from 2016-7-20 (although I'm sure you copied it today).
Yes, it probably is. I just grabbed the latest. Perhaps I should have named the file 'latest' and let the time of my post indicate when that was.

For such a graph, I wasn't really concerned about the exact day, more the general shape.