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wanderer

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How to deal with denialists?
« on: March 25, 2013, 04:56:02 PM »
>:(...

Due to the negative NAO winter returned in large parts of Europa & Russia and denialists are spreading some old arcticles about predictions (from around 2000) that said that "there won't be any severe winters any more, snowfalls are a thing of the past"...

In newspaper forums everyone is listening to them and nobody sees the whole picture (Narsarsuaq, Greenland, 9° Celsius)... kind of frustrating!

Dromicosuchus

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2013, 08:11:10 PM »
Be warned, I'm not a terribly social person, and my track record with understanding other folks' feelings hasn't necessarily been all that stellar in the past.  That said, my thoughts on the subject are as follows:

I've noticed that a fair few contrarians--most or all of them, I'd say--ultimately base their objections not on scientific grounds, but on political grounds.  There often seems to be, buried deep down under the rationalizations, unread literature, cherry-picked temperature records or intervals, and mis-cited quotes, a conviction that global warming isn't just a mistake on the part of the scientific community, like (technically) Newtonian physics or (in a few decades' time, perhaps) either String Theory or the Standard Model.  Instead, it's typically viewed as a deliberate deception and an attack.  Naturally, that point of view is going to instantly dredge up all the old "Us vs. Them" instincts, in which it doesn't matter which "tribe" is, logically and factually speaking, right about whether they have a claim to this or that territory.  What matters is that the bad guys get defeated, because they're the bad guys.

So, ultimately, it's an emotional rather than logical battleground.  I've read some articles by climate activists arguing that, therefore, the battle should be fought on emotional grounds.  I don't know if that would work or not; maybe so.  Like I said, social interaction isn't my forté.  Personally, though, regardless of whether it worked or not I can't be comfortable with the idea.  It feels far, far too much like manipulation, and even if it works (which, honestly, strikes me as kind of dubious.  The contrarians have more experience with making emotional arguments, their audience tends to already identify with them politically and ideologically, and even if they could be won over by such means there's no Earthly reason why they couldn't be won back again--because ultimately, nothing has actually been learned) it doesn't produce people who understand the situation any better.  They may happen to hold opinions which are more closely allied with the truth than their previous opinions, but their reasons for holding those views have nothing to do with physical reality and everything to do with their emotional state--and if their emotional state changes, Bizzam, so do their opinions.

So, on an individual scale at least, maybe it might be more productive to give both the emotional approach and the rebuttal approach the miss-in-baulk, and instead try to address the underlying problem, which will vary from person to person but is often a combination of simple ignorance (hardly a character flaw; it'd be very odd if most folks spent hours reading up on the minutiae of climate science, after all), a unfamiliarity with the many, many stumbling blocks that exist between oneself and even a partial understanding of the universe, and particularly a failure to realize their own fallibility, and to recognize that out of all the lies a person is told in their life, the most frequent, harmful, and insidious ones will be the lies they tell themselves.

...Says the not-terribly-social fellow with the admitted difficulty in parsing human behavior.  I'd do well, I think, to heed my own advice about being aware of one's limitations...

SteveMDFP

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2013, 08:39:59 PM »
To Dromicosuchus and the Forum:

I've done a fair amount of arguing with denialists.  Lately, a lot has been online at sites like sodahead.com.

Really, one shouldn't expect to get a publicly-declared denialist to admit to being in the wrong.  I don't think I've ever seen that happen.  Rather, one should engage in public debate with these folks for the benefit of the audience.  From this perspective, one's approach should be relentlessly logical, rational, fact-based, scholarly, and devoid of personal attacks or snarks or sarcasm.

In such debates, strategic use of information graphics is powerful.  The two most persuasive graphics, in my mind, are, first, a graph of CO2 over time and, second, the 30-year comparison of arctic sea ice minimum declines.

After all, there is no credible argument that the CO2 increase is from anything other than human activity, and ice doesn't lie.  Arctic ice never sent ambiguous e-mails or reported thermometer readings that could be skewed by "adjustments" or "urban heat island effects."  Ice doesn't seek to transfer wealth from advanced countries to poor ones, or from consumers to carbon marketeers.  It's hard for a paranoid denialist to paint ice as a villain:

Amaranthus

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2013, 09:10:53 PM »
I got sick of dealing with them a while ago.  Ignore them, they'll get the hint when the planet clubs them hard enough to get their attention.  Until recently I'd been wondering what that wake up call would be, arctic melt or the beginnings of the abandonment of the least liveable cities like Phoenix, Arizona.  Might be both.  There are a lot of small towns in Texas getting into desperate straits after last year.  When the water goes, so will the people.  You can't drink oil.

Personally, I expect heavily armed Texan climate refugees to show up on the Canadian border in the next 10 years or so.  They'll cross illegally (there's an irony for ya) since they won't be able to take their weapons with them otherwise and wind up getting lost then freezing or starving to death in the wilderness before they ever find a town or road.  There's a heck of a lot of empty space in this country.  My Dad's Dutch cousins would come to visit when I was a teenager, I'll never forget the look on Wim's face when it was explained why we couldn't do a day trip to Vancouver from Ottawa.  Not without a jet anyway.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2013, 09:28:26 PM by Amaranthus »

Dromicosuchus

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2013, 09:33:18 PM »
SteveMDFP:  You're right, there's not much point in trying to argue with the Anthony Watts, Steve McIntyres, and Christopher Moncktons of the world.  I suppose I was thinking in terms of more cordial conversations, where both parties have some amount of respect (or at least fondness) for one another, and are willing to seriously think about things that the other person says.  Not hardcore deniers, in other words, but...well, I tend to use the word "contrarian" rather than "denier" precisely because lots of people whose minds aren't nearly as closed as the three fellers I mentioned above still mentally associate themselves with them, and aren't going to see any distinction between Anthony Watts being called a denier and being called deniers themselves.

Amaranthus:  I realize you're joking, but that's basically why I'm applying to Master's programs in Canada NOW, while the going's good.  Hopefully following my Master's I can get a PhD, then find some nice, northerly research lab where I can get a job and citizenship.  If not, of course, it's back south for me, which hopefully won't involve going home to a Dust Bowl and famine.  Hopefully.

Amaranthus

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2013, 09:49:19 PM »
Who said I was joking?   ;D

Inuvik ought to be nice and toasty in another 50 years or so...

anonymous

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2013, 04:19:59 AM »
... Personally, I expect heavily armed Texan climate refugees to show up on the Canadian border in the next 10 years or so.  ...
Nice prospect. Please, post first signs of a 'Go North' campaign here.

Lucas Durand

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2013, 04:42:40 PM »
Ugo Bardi recently posted on this topic at his blog:
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.ca/2013/03/desdemonas-trap-facing-denial-in.html

Nothing really new, but the comparison to Shakespeare's "Othello" was interesting.
Some interesting comments as well - particularily regarding differentiation between "active denial" and "passive denial"...
Human behaviour is certainly complex and interesting.

Lucas Durand

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2013, 04:58:22 PM »
Amaranthus:  I realize you're joking, but that's basically why I'm applying to Master's programs in Canada NOW, while the going's good.  Hopefully following my Master's I can get a PhD, then find some nice, northerly research lab where I can get a job and citizenship.
Dromicosuchus,
I'm not sure what field you're in, but I hope you find the posting you're looking for.
The Harper government has been doing a good job of making life difficult for research projects that don't have apparent applications in propping up the economy (or maybe worse, might reaveal that tar sands development is not a good idea  ::)).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/09/canada-stephen-harper-revolt-scientists

Dromicosuchus

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2013, 06:25:18 PM »
Lucas Durand:  That's a very interesting article from Mr. Bardi.  I can't say I really disagree with any of it, although I can't help but wish that the more conspiracy-minded folks could be pulled up into some semblance of rationality.  The astounding recent collapse of the sea ice, though, is wearing away much of my willingness to try to reason things out with them, and if the ice continues its precipitous drop (and what's going to stop it?), I think I'll probably end up just ignoring whatever the contrarians say as being so obviously wrong to any thinking person that it's not worth paying attention to.  I suppose I should probably have come to that point already, but...well.

Oh, and my interest is in physics, particularly the more abstruse, theoretical aspects.  Not really excellent prospects there, considering the current attitude, but I've hope that Stephen Harper won't remain in office after the next switcheroo of parliament.

dorlomin

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2013, 06:32:41 PM »
I have had my sixth user name banned from The Guardian for my assisting those with incomplete knowledge of geophysics and climate science by pointing to the errors they were making and how to find better sources of information.

 8)

I even got name checked in a post on WUWT when I got permabanned.

Take it for granted you are wrong.
Just try to work out what about and why.

Amaranthus

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2013, 11:25:40 PM »
I have had my sixth user name banned from The Guardian for my assisting those with incomplete knowledge of geophysics and climate science by pointing to the errors they were making and how to find better sources of information.

 8)

I even got name checked in a post on WUWT when I got permabanned.

Well, when the tradition has always been to shoot the messenger carrying bad news eventually the guys in charge stop getting mail.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2013, 11:32:42 PM by Amaranthus »

OldLeatherneck

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2013, 12:35:53 AM »
Personally, I expect heavily armed Texan climate refugees to show up on the Canadian border in the next 10 years or so. 

Being a politically active progressive, living in a very RED county in Texas,  I'd be happy to personally drive 30% of the population of Texas to the border of any country that would take them.  I'd offer to drive them to the Canadian border, but I don't want to gain the enmity of my many Canadian friends, particularly because I may need to move somewhere myself.  Maybe we could start an International Lottery, whereby the losing nation must grant refugee status to the 30% of  educated Texans who are the most "Science Illiterate" when it comes to AGW/CC and Evolution.  My humanitarian instincts would request that they be treated in accordances with the Geneva Convention -  however, I'm flexible on that issue!!

Seriously, the Denialists and their ample funding sources are effectively committing "Crimes Against Humanity" unparalleled in the annals of history!

Several weeks ago, I started a Topic on the subject on the basic psychological needs of individuals and why some of them may not be aware/concerned about AGW/CC and why others follow blindly, without thinking, just to be accepted in a certain social strata:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,68.0.html
« Last Edit: March 27, 2013, 12:53:14 AM by OldLeatherneck »
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TerryM

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2013, 10:47:19 AM »
Lucas Durand:

Oh, and my interest is in physics, particularly the more abstruse, theoretical aspects.  Not really excellent prospects there, considering the current attitude, but I've hope that Stephen Harper won't remain in office after the next switcheroo of parliament.


Try Perimeter Institute - lots of world class physics north of the border.


Harper won't lose with the opposition split unfortunately.


Terry

Amaranthus

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2013, 10:52:41 AM »
The behaviour of denialists does make sense in a way.  When a predator comes stalking out of the bush, some critters in the same species will run around screaming, others hide behind the nearest shrub and still others freeze in place and go completely still, all according to their own personal reflexes.  Fight, flight or freeze.  Statistically speaking one of these reactions is likely to be the right one for survival under any given set of circumstances.

The 'nervous nellies' get out first and get called names by the more placid, less imaginitive personalities.  Anxiety is correlated with intelligence in some animals (horses for example), I doubt humans are any different.  Same with any adaptation or technology, some are early adopters, others still don't own a computer because it takes resources to change and it isn't worth it to them just yet.

Natural variation is what helps a species survive, when the cost benefit analysis gets too direct to ignore more people will think about moving to greener and wetter pastures.  It has to be a dire situation to get people to leave what they see as the safety of their own homes and launch themselves and their kids into the unknown.  Defending the homes they, or their great-grandparents, established with a lot of work and investment is usually the first majority reaction.  Nomadic peoples often hold the philosophy that having too many things makes a person go crazy keeping track of it all.  Stuff weighs us down.

At least half the immigrants and refugees we get are leaving something one heck of a lot worse behind.  Some of the stories I heard from classmates in high school who had been refugees are truly hair raising.  A quarter of my younger brother and sister's classmates were Somali kids running from genocide.  The ones who ran, survived, and every one of them had lost family who didn't run soon enough.  Or fast enough.  People rarely come to Canada for the climate, that may change soon.   (I mean, 6 months of winter, I was born here and I wish I could hibernate.  Still, I wouldn't move to Somalia or Guatemala for any reason.  Even without climate change.)

With this many object lessons around when I was growing up, it made an impression.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2013, 01:04:37 PM by Amaranthus »

dorlomin

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2013, 03:34:35 PM »
Having spent a long time in the field observing the subjects, I personally think that the average denialst is simply getting a buzz of off a sense of being ‘smarter than the egg heads’. They tend to be people who have learnt a few stock phrases and can just about master some basic physics so put this together to feel they are doing real science.

Kinda like a child with a white lab coat mixing coloured water thinking they are doing chemistry.

Science is hard, takes effort, time and work. You never really understand something until you have cracked open the calculator and gone through the maths yourself.

“The climate always changes, always will”
“No warming for x/y/z years”
“climategate proved that is was cosmic rays from venus, reflecting of off thermometers being too close to tarmac.”

Is easy.
Take it for granted you are wrong.
Just try to work out what about and why.

jbg

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2013, 01:54:32 AM »
>:(...

Due to the negative NAO winter returned in large parts of Europa & Russia and denialists are spreading some old arcticles about predictions (from around 2000) that said that "there won't be any severe winters any more, snowfalls are a thing of the past"...

In newspaper forums everyone is listening to them and nobody sees the whole picture (Narsarsuaq, Greenland, 9° Celsius)... kind of frustrating!
Normally negative NAO warms up places such as Baffin Island, Canada.  This year that and Yellowknife were frigid.

What gives?

Stephen

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2013, 07:30:35 AM »
I would first of all like to suggest that everyone get a copy of "Thinking fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman

He won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics for his life-long work on the study of  the  psychology of judgment and decision-making, behavioral economics.  It can be depressing reading, when you realise how irrational we all can be.  I don't think it helps to point the finger at denialists here.  We can all be denialists when the facts don't suit us.

I only have to think of my own efforts at share trading over the last 20 years to realise how stupid I can be, how I can live in denial of my losses.

Kahneman's book is an insight into the true irrational nature of human beings and may help you to understand denialism better.

Also, don't forget the war in Iraq and WMD.  At this point I can hear a collective WTF! What has the war in Iraq got to do with Global Warming and denialism. 

Two things... 

1. The same people who are now denying the evidence for AGW are mostly the same ones who claimed that there was lots of evidence that Iraq had WMD.  Theses people denied the evidence provided by the experts on the ground, namely the UN weapons inspectors, and invented their own evidence.  They have demonstrated incompetence when it comes to judging evidence.

2. Their logic with regard to Weapons of Mass Destruction was, "we aren't 100% sure, but the consequences are so serious that we need to act now."    They have hypocritically reversed that kind of logic when considering Global Warming by saying "The science is not settled, we want 100% proof before we take any action."
« Last Edit: March 30, 2013, 09:21:06 AM by Stephen »
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jbg

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2013, 01:44:50 PM »
Also, don't forget the war in Iraq and WMD.  At this point I can hear a collective WTF! What has the war in Iraq got to do with Global Warming and denialism. 

Two things... 

1. The same people who are now denying the evidence for AGW are mostly the same ones who claimed that there was lots of evidence that Iraq had WMD.  Theses people denied the evidence provided by the experts on the ground, namely the UN weapons inspectors, and invented their own evidence.  They have demonstrated incompetence when it comes to judging evidence.

2. Their logic with regard to Weapons of Mass Destruction was, "we aren't 100% sure, but the consequences are so serious that we need to act now."    They have hypocritically reversed that kind of logic when considering Global Warming by saying "The science is not settled, we want 100% proof before we take any action."
What about the fact that Iraq set fire to Kuwait's oil fields? How much AGW did that cause?

Stephen

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2013, 11:56:32 PM »
Also, don't forget the war in Iraq and WMD.  At this point I can hear a collective WTF! What has the war in Iraq got to do with Global Warming and denialism. 

Two things... 

1. The same people who are now denying the evidence for AGW are mostly the same ones who claimed that there was lots of evidence that Iraq had WMD.  Theses people denied the evidence provided by the experts on the ground, namely the UN weapons inspectors, and invented their own evidence.  They have demonstrated incompetence when it comes to judging evidence.

2. Their logic with regard to Weapons of Mass Destruction was, "we aren't 100% sure, but the consequences are so serious that we need to act now."    They have hypocritically reversed that kind of logic when considering Global Warming by saying "The science is not settled, we want 100% proof before we take any action."
What about the fact that Iraq set fire to Kuwait's oil fields? How much AGW did that cause?

That was Iraq war 1 (or the Gulf war), which started in August 1990 during the reign of Emperor  Bush 1st.  I'm talking about Iraq War 2, started in 2003 by Emperor Bush 2nd.

The difference between the two is stark.  The 1990 war was an internationally recognised and supported, legal response to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The cost was shared by Saudi Arabia and other international states.  It was a success.

The 2003 war was illegal, justified by lies and concocted evidence, supported only by a few other states, and has cost the USA about 2 trillion dollars.  It is an ongoing catastrophic failure.

The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

gfwellman

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2013, 04:39:07 AM »
But to answer the question, one could do some rough estimates - the fires ran for a few months, so a first order approximation would be "the same as burning a few months of Kuwaits normal production".  Apparently not enough to show any noticeable effect in the Mauna Loa record.   There is a slight tweak up there, but it seems to start in 1990, not 1991.

Stephen

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2013, 03:35:06 PM »
I suspect that the soot from the burning of crude oil had a bigger effect than the CO2
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Anne

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2013, 03:49:42 AM »
Long time lurker here. This story in the UK paper Daily Telegraph highlights some genuine social problems. But on climate change, I don't know where to start. The comments are beyond parody.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/elderhealth/9959856/Its-the-cold-not-global-warming-that-we-should-be-worried-about.html
« Last Edit: April 01, 2013, 03:55:11 AM by Anne »

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2013, 11:17:48 AM »
Reading some of the psychological literature on personality types and traits can be really interesting. Particularly the studies that are using Functional MRI scanners to watch which part of the brain is active during different types of mental processes.

One study just recently looked at what parts of the brain were active during 'risk evaluation'. Individuals were asked to make evaluations of various risks, large and small while they were inside an MRI scanner.

2 different parts of the brain were active in different people. One part is related to social activities, inter-relationship type stuff. The other center that fired up in other participants was the centre related to the Fight-or-Flight mechanism.

They saw quite different patterns of brain activity in different individuals when they were all doing the same task

Then...

They looked up the voter registration of all their test participants (it was an American study) and correlated this to the brain scans.

They found they could predict someones political orientation with 80% accuracy, based on which system in their brain fired off.

Denial is something deeper than just political views or ideology. It comes from the underlying psychology that predisposes people towards differing political views.

frankendoodle

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2013, 09:06:39 PM »
As an April Fools prank, Fox News will be reporting factual and accurate stories about climate change, disappearing arctic sea ice and melting permafrost all day :)

frankendoodle

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #25 on: April 06, 2013, 01:35:50 AM »
http://news.yahoo.com/climate-change-may-help-penguin-colony-172148839.html

A better question is how to reach the average person. Look at the comments section on this climate change fluff piece. These people are not the hard core denialists who will never admit to this problem for various esoteric reasons. These are regular people who are bored hearing about it, or find it to complex a problem to wrap their head around so distrust it, or simply don't like the idea so they dismiss it. This is a problem of fighting not ignorance, but apathy. I don't think you can fight apathy data and graphs.

Anne

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #26 on: April 06, 2013, 11:05:54 AM »
A better question is how to reach the average person. Look at the comments section on this climate change fluff piece. These people are not the hard core denialists who will never admit to this problem for various esoteric reasons. These are regular people who are bored hearing about it,
This always puzzles me, but it's a common enough phenomenon. People are bored with a subject, yet they care enough to post on a newspaper comment section. There are some people who seem to make a hobby of it. It's little short of trolling. If anyone has an insight into the mentality, it would help so that we could begin to have a clue how to reach them.

or find it to complex a problem to wrap their head around so distrust it,

It would be great if there were some simple sites to direct them to, if they could be bothered going. Perhaps something like NASA's "Climate Change: How do we know?" (though admittedly it's immediately offputting to the reader who is scared of graphs!) http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
and their page on effects
http://climate.nasa.gov/effects
Perhaps it might be an idea to start collecting useful resources for the non-specialist?

or simply don't like the idea so they dismiss it. This is a problem of fighting not ignorance, but apathy. I don't think you can fight apathy data and graphs.
I don't know how we deal with that. Engaging in debate in newspaper comments is rarely fruitful on the face of it - but for every person bothering to comment, whether thoughtfully or not, there are probably another hundred lurking. It's those people it would be good to reach.

ggelsrinc

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #27 on: April 06, 2013, 12:49:04 PM »
http://news.yahoo.com/climate-change-may-help-penguin-colony-172148839.html

A better question is how to reach the average person. Look at the comments section on this climate change fluff piece. These people are not the hard core denialists who will never admit to this problem for various esoteric reasons. These are regular people who are bored hearing about it, or find it to complex a problem to wrap their head around so distrust it, or simply don't like the idea so they dismiss it. This is a problem of fighting not ignorance, but apathy. I don't think you can fight apathy data and graphs.

For what it's worth, I'll put my two (or many) sense in.

Don't ever talk to a Denialista thinking you will convince them. Go to hell in your dreams and talk to Satan about evil and you'll have the same results. All the logic in the world will never convince a Denialista, so the only hear you are talking to should be someone willing to listen to reasoning given, who is an audience of that conversation. Let me give you an example with WUWT. I'm use to normal language in political sites about global warming, but at WUWT you can't say deny, denier or anything related to it, because it's considered something against the Jews and they are firmly againsts such religious begotry, like their kind didn't intend it. No language has ever been devised to communicate to a fool and a fool can only talk to him/her self.  The fools on Earth have been given the knowledge to throw feces at the best of science and knowledge, so let's give them some credit for that. It's up to a scientist, who is usually a very humble kind of man to speak for the world.

« Last Edit: April 07, 2013, 12:47:06 AM by ggelsrinc »

OldLeatherneck

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #28 on: April 06, 2013, 08:21:28 PM »
When I read comments about climate change on the major social media outlets (Huffington Post, Yahoo, etc.) I am almost as dismayed by the people that believe in AGW/CC as those who post nonsensical "Denialist" rebuttals.  There is an alarming number of people who may be aware of AGW/CC that have such meager knowledge about the subject that when they try to engage a "Denialist" they actually harm our cause of informing the public.  Not only do many of these believers lack accurate knowledge, they seem to be unaware of the imminent near-term dangers.  I'm not referring to any of the "End-of-the-World" scenarios, but the very plausible, if not probable events that will be transpiring in the next 5-20 years.

Another point is that much of the "denial" in the social media is coming from uninformed individuals who are just regurgitating the lies being told them by the professional "Denialist Industry".  These people are the targets for us to reach as they see events that begin to impact their daily lives.  When these people begin to realize that they have been deliberately lied to and manipulated they may begin to retaliate.  Hopefully in a peaceful way.

Several weeks ago I started a topic related to the psychology of denial and why so many people either deliberately lie or are willing to accept the lies told by others:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,68.0.html
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ccgwebmaster

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #29 on: April 06, 2013, 11:13:02 PM »
Unfortunately, information is only the first part of the problem. I think failure to act (as titled on the other thread) is also key.

The number of people who, even upon becoming more informed, conclude that no action is possible and that all options end in failure - used to amaze me.

And I'm not talking about contingency planning for a failed civilisation here, just little stuff like "write to your MP", "talk to your friends", "cut your carbon footprint", etc.

Denial of some flavour permeates far beyond merely possessing an appropriate level of information.

Artful Dodger

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #30 on: April 08, 2013, 07:49:22 AM »
I am almost as dismayed by the people that believe in AGW/CC as those who post nonsensical "Denialist" rebuttals.  There is an alarming number of people who may be aware of AGW/CC that have such meager knowledge about the subject that when they try to engage a "Denialist" they actually harm our cause of informing the public.

Hi OLN,

This is a common denier tactic on websites where you can not track the posts of Commenters. It is equivalent to a corrupt Police Officer banging on your front door "POLICE. OPEN UP!" while his partner is at the back door yelling "COME IN!"

Best to let some shit slide, brother. Be advised that Joe Public doesn't reading those website comment sections. They are crafted to break your will to fight. Don't let it! Pick your battles on favorable ground. ;)
« Last Edit: April 08, 2013, 07:56:03 AM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #31 on: February 18, 2014, 08:41:27 PM »
For those who get into conversations trying to demonstrate that AGW is real and to counter denial tactics I found a great article.  It has lots of animations attached and maps.  Pretty interesting even for the non-denial camp.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-07/data-made-beautiful-weather-climate-and-fracking-water.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #32 on: February 26, 2014, 07:54:00 PM »
This type of thing is what allows me to be optimistic. The more conversations we can get started, the better.


http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/wanted-professionals-willing-speak-about

jbg

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #33 on: March 02, 2014, 07:19:04 PM »
This type of thing is what allows me to be optimistic. The more conversations we can get started, the better.


http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/wanted-professionals-willing-speak-about
Except when you drum people like myself off the threads because I am allegedly a "denialist."  I am strongly pro-environmental. I am just not sold on AGW.

idunno

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #34 on: March 02, 2014, 07:43:29 PM »
jbg,

In what possible way can you object either to SH's post or to the linked article?

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #35 on: March 02, 2014, 10:37:36 PM »
This type of thing is what allows me to be optimistic. The more conversations we can get started, the better.


http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/wanted-professionals-willing-speak-about
Except when you drum people like myself off the threads because I am allegedly a "denialist."  I am strongly pro-environmental. I am just not sold on AGW.

Not sure I'm buying why you are not sold.

I will assume you accept the reality of the greenhouse effect in that the blanket of CO2 in our atmosphere is what allows this planet to be warm enough to support complex forms of life. We owe our very existence to the greenhouse effect because without it this planet would be a frozen icy ball. The science around this is quite simple.

As CO2 levels increase, this greenhouse effect strengthens, warming the planet. Here is a chart of atmospheric CO2 levels for the past 10,000 years. It was not until the advent of the industrial revolution, dependent on the burning of fossil fuels, that we see the level of CO2 explode. Are you actually suggesting that this increase in atmospheric CO2 is natural variation? Or are you arguing that CO2 levels have no influence on a warming earth?
« Last Edit: March 03, 2014, 03:01:20 PM by Shared Humanity »

Neven

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2014, 09:05:18 AM »
I am just not sold on AGW.

Does this mean that you think that there is a zero chance that AGW could have serious consequences? That's what fake skeptics in general maintain, but I think this position is untenable.
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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2014, 12:46:27 PM »
A few more questions from me for anyone who is "Just not sold on AGW":

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/03/some-sceptical-questions/
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Shared Humanity

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2014, 04:20:20 PM »
This type of thing is what allows me to be optimistic. The more conversations we can get started, the better.


http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/wanted-professionals-willing-speak-about
Except when you drum people like myself off the threads because I am allegedly a "denialist."  I am strongly pro-environmental. I am just not sold on AGW.

I posted a couple of questions regarding this comment on 3/2/2014. These questions should not be interpreted as drumming you off the thread. I come to this website because I want to  understand AGW. I absolutely believe that my understanding deepens as I read the debates here that involve people who are far better informed than I am. I am sincerely interested in your reasons for not being sold.

jbg

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #39 on: May 15, 2014, 05:02:29 PM »
I am sincerely interested in your reasons for not being sold.
While I am not a trained scientist or meteorologist I consider myself well read. I read a lot of non-fiction history.

When I read of the Civil War, the U.S. Revolutionary War, WW I and WW II, the War of 1812 and biographies of Washington, Adams (the first John Adams), Abigail Adams, and historical literature such as Alexis de Tocqueville's Democracy in America there is extensive discussion of prevailing weather and climate.  The descriptions of contemporary conditions strike my untrained eye as being very similar to what we experience nowadays. Literature about the Vikings and Ancient Greece is of similar effect, though obviously these are translated and not always contemporary accounts.

I know from the name of this board and from discussions with believers in AGW that the focus is on polar and high altitude regions. These are also regions where very few people with a written history live.  I just don't buy into the reality of major non-cyclical changes.

TeaPotty

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #40 on: May 15, 2014, 05:30:55 PM »
While I am not a trained scientist or meteorologist I consider myself well read. I read a lot of non-fiction history.

I just don't buy into the reality of major non-cyclical changes.

Then maybe u don't "Buy" the science that made your smartphone, home, food, medicine, etc? Your opinion on an entire field of Science that is older than your parents is trivial.

This Science is just a theory based on abstract weather models that u can refute with a few graphs. Weather instruments are already documenting the changes to our biosphere, and Biologists/Chemists are documenting the mass extinction event already in motion. There is no other theory that has proven to explain any of this.

So, to make clear... you cannot deny something already happening.

You don't have an educated opinion, u have a "faith", which is nothing more than self-centered thought reinforced by fear of change. Very human. Ironically, the truth is much scarier.

To be fair, Deniers come in many flavors:
  • Climate Change isn't real
  • Climate Change is real, but natural & beneficial
  • Climate Change is real & anthropogenic, but mitigation isn't necessary, only adaptation
  • Climate Change is real and fatal, so just accept it

What do they have in common? Funding by the fossil fuel industry.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2014, 05:51:13 PM by TeaPotty »

SteveMDFP

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #41 on: May 15, 2014, 05:39:45 PM »

I know from the name of this board and from discussions with believers in AGW that the focus is on polar and high altitude regions. These are also regions where very few people with a written history live.  I just don't buy into the reality of major non-cyclical changes.

Well, your database of human records wouldn't be sensitive enough to discern a clear 1 degree C change.  People write about weather in specific locations.  For climate purposes, nearly useless.

If you want clear evidence of progressive warming, there's no better record than masses of ice.  For your purposes, glaciers, since polar regions are so sparsely populated.  Retreat of glaciers all over the world over the past century are clear, dramatic, and quite consistent.  We have well over a century of photographic proof.  A simple google image search can get you started.

jbg

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #42 on: May 15, 2014, 05:44:15 PM »

I know from the name of this board and from discussions with believers in AGW that the focus is on polar and high altitude regions. These are also regions where very few people with a written history live.  I just don't buy into the reality of major non-cyclical changes.

Well, your database of human records wouldn't be sensitive enough to discern a clear 1 degree C change.  People write about weather in specific locations.  For climate purposes, nearly useless.
But the change over the course of centuries would be far greater than 1C or we are really arguing over nothing.
If you want clear evidence of progressive warming, there's no better record than masses of ice.  For your purposes, glaciers, since polar regions are so sparsely populated.  Retreat of glaciers all over the world over the past century are clear, dramatic, and quite consistent.  We have well over a century of photographic proof.  A simple google image search can get you started.
Is it possible that even if temperatures are steady over time, in a post Ice Age environment you'd get progressive melting?  As far as open Arctic waters I remember reading New York Times articles on this as early as 1969.

Edited to read:

I just found the article I remember. Link to article. I tried to excerpt but it won't "OCR." The article is quite worth the read.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2014, 06:01:36 PM by jbg »

TeaPotty

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #43 on: May 15, 2014, 06:16:25 PM »
As far as open Arctic waters I remember reading New York Times articles on this as early as 1969.

Edited to read:

I just found the article I remember. Link to article. I tried to excerpt but it won't "OCR." The article is quite worth the read.

That NyTimes article is about a report from Bernt Balchen, who is not a scientist: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernt_Balchen

Science never made the prediction, and yet the newspaper published it anyway. Likewise for a mere handful of Scientific Articles published about "Global Cooling" in the 1970s. The media sensationalizes such research like a child seeking attention. Half the "research" you hear about in the media today is corporate-funded garbage meant to mislead the public, and ultimately not accepted by the scientific community due to lack of evidence.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2014, 06:41:42 PM by TeaPotty »

jbg

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #44 on: May 15, 2014, 06:42:26 PM »
That NyTimes article is about a report from Bernt Balchen, who is not a scientist: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernt_Balchen

Science never made the prediction, and yet the newspaper published it anyway. Likewise for a mere handful of Scientific Articles published about "Global Cooling" in the 1970s. The media sensationalizes such research like a child seeking attention. Half the "research" you hear about in the media today is corporate-funded garbage meant to mislead the public, and ultimately not accepted by the scientific community.
Are you saying the historical tracking of ice trends in the article was not accurate?

jai mitchell

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #45 on: May 15, 2014, 06:57:05 PM »

Are you saying the historical tracking of ice trends in the article was not accurate?


Quit pretending that some pathetic newspaper article quoting some pseudoscientist 45 years ago has any relevance on what is happing in the world today.

you call yourself a skeptic.  I call you unread and (very likely) self-deceiving.

Tell you what.

you want to be a real skeptic?

read this: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

then get back to me. 

your fake skepticism is simply willful ignorance

willful ignorance is denialism

even if you don't like the term
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TeaPotty

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #46 on: May 15, 2014, 07:05:58 PM »
Are you saying the historical tracking of ice trends in the article was not accurate?

What historical tracking of ice trends did I say was inaccurate?
This isn't a scientific study. There is no data, and zero evidence to the article's claims.



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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #47 on: May 15, 2014, 07:24:17 PM »
Is there more than this:

Quote
Expert Says Arctic Ocean Will Soon Be an Open Sea; Catastrophic Shifts in Climate Feared if Change Occurs Other Specialists See No Thinning of Polar Ice Cap

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By WALTER SULLIVAN ();
February 20, 1969,
, Section , Page 20, Column , words

[ DISPLAYING ABSTRACT ]

Col. Bernt Balchen, polar explorer and flier, is circulating a paper among polar specialists proposing that the Arctic pack ice is thinning and that the ocean at the North Pole may become an open sea within a decade or two.

Although they pose little evidence wrt to trends and can't possible give the Arctic overview we have now, I absolutely love those anecdotes, so if anyone/jbg can post the whole story somewhere else on the forum (this is about how to deal with denialists), I'd be much obliged.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #48 on: May 15, 2014, 08:34:46 PM »
I am sincerely interested in your reasons for not being sold.
While I am not a trained scientist or meteorologist I consider myself well read. I read a lot of non-fiction history.

When I read of the Civil War, the U.S. Revolutionary War, WW I and WW II, the War of 1812 and biographies of Washington, Adams (the first John Adams), Abigail Adams, and historical literature such as Alexis de Tocqueville's Democracy in America there is extensive discussion of prevailing weather and climate.  The descriptions of contemporary conditions strike my untrained eye as being very similar to what we experience nowadays. Literature about the Vikings and Ancient Greece is of similar effect, though obviously these are translated and not always contemporary accounts.

I know from the name of this board and from discussions with believers in AGW that the focus is on polar and high altitude regions. These are also regions where very few people with a written history live.  I just don't buy into the reality of major non-cyclical changes.

I would like to thank you for responding. It has been a while but I thought I would comment directly about some of the points you have made here.

First it comes with some relief that we agree that....

 "Literature about the Vikings and Ancient Greece are....not always contemporary accounts."

If you had asserted otherwise, I would be forced to ask from which century you are commenting from.

I am also well read and consider Alexis de Tocqueville's seminal work on America to be quite insightful, particularly with regards to the twin problems of slavery and Native Americans. It was, however, his focus on the true nature of participatory democracy in this country that still resonates today. I was unaware of his interest in climate and weather patterns and wish he had included this in the title of his work. Perhaps "Democracy in America, Weather or Not".

Like you, I rarely read fiction and accounts of historical figures of leaders during the Revolutionary War are fascinating, the trials and difficulties that they faced. That George Washington was able to rally the colonial forces during the brutal winter of 1777/1778 at Valley Forge is inspiring. Despite these accounts about the cold, I do not consider this hard evidence in support of my positions on AGW.

Finally, while I am not certain that President Lincoln expressed any opinions regarding AGW, I can assure you I would read intently if he chose to show up on this thread to express one. I would hope that, unlike yourself, he would support these opinions with some data and graphs.

Shared Humanity

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Re: How to deal with denialists?
« Reply #49 on: May 15, 2014, 08:43:13 PM »
Consistent with the subject of this thread, I would like to hold up my above response as an example of how to "deal with denialists" as obtuse as this one.

You treat them to a healthy dose of sarcasm, ridicule and scorn.   ;)

Yer doin' it 'rong!   >:(
« Last Edit: May 15, 2014, 08:50:10 PM by Shared Humanity »