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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2200 on: January 26, 2017, 05:47:09 PM »
I think the following speaks for itself. 2009-2017(to date)
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

CraigsIsland

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2201 on: January 26, 2017, 05:51:42 PM »
I think it's good to "challenge" or question whatever posters are claiming - sometimes it's difficult to understand another posters' claims without knowing what they've studied/know or practice for a living. Don't take offense if someone is questioning your post, maybe it's just a slight misunderstanding of some paper or something weird that's not worth flaming each other.

I'm not at a professional in these multiple disciplinary sciences and will never claim to be a scientist in that regard. Some people like myself come here to learn and observe posts to try to understand the past, current and maybe project into the future a little bit. Do it respectfully and constructively and I think we're all good.

What I can do is observe, learn and apply some concepts in real life, which is the real gain of this forum.

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2202 on: January 26, 2017, 05:53:09 PM »
Then recovery was swift in September, continued through October, November, and December, but then stalled substantially in January.

If Feeltheburn wants any credibility on his "the forum is too fatalistic" assessment, then I beg of him and anyone defending his statements to please show how October, November and December showed any recovery. I'm following the arctic sea ice graphs, jaxa, nullschool, among others. None of them indicate recovery.

As far as I have observed extent was record low through OND, thickness was record low, temperature was record high, cyclonic activity was record high so on and so forth. If some has the audacity to say there is no real danger of a potentially catastrophic event, then please explain why and show data.

What some are  calling a recovery is merely a return to past record year anomalies. Look at the Temperatures north of 80.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 The temperatures have not hit the average since the beginning of the freezing season and they are not they are still much higher than the baseline. I bet a similar graph but with temperatures above 70 would show an even higher departure.

I guess the real question is, what effect will the sudden growth have on ice? I hope good. As far as I'm concerned the more ice there is on the periphery receiving sunlight the more delayed will be the accumulation of melting momentum. But I do worry about thickness. Some say is too late to get a nice thick pack going but the recent cooling makes me hopeful for this season and terrified for the next super el niño on an even warmer planet.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2203 on: January 26, 2017, 06:21:39 PM »
averages that include a 20% increase in total extent made up of brash ice compared to previous years is a false indicator.

at this point only volume is a useful comparison tool.

Fair points. I'm quite interested to see what the January piomas estimate will be.
It's all about FDD's (See Tigertown's post of Tealight's graph in #2197).  That's why I addressed FtB's post in some detail, laying out all of the other mechanisms in play besides SIE, for which we have precious few metrics, but which qualitatively provide support for our conclusions and concerns.

SIE is a 2nd possibly 3rd order derivative metric for what's happening, and is far more an effect than a cause.  It further, because of its greater articulation - namely, more "arms" on the multi-armed pendulum - it is infuriatingly volatile.  We can't safely presume it reflects "recovery" without seeing similar positive changes in a myriad of other measures.  They simply aren't there.  Volume.  Temperature anomalies.  Ice quality.  Water column temperatures.  They all need to shift back the other way and conclusively are NOT doing that.

Contrary-wise, SIE disappearing *does* have great import, as it cannot do so without every other factor also turning bad in very serious ways.

PIOMAS volume will be very revealing.
This space for Rent.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2204 on: January 26, 2017, 06:42:00 PM »
I think that we are getting hung up about the word recovery.  It is a problem because the denialists use it all the time.

So we need two words.  Re-Growth and Recovery. 

Re-Growth is the extending of the ice over the ocean surface, no matter the thickness, thus blocking off a significant proportion of heat transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere and allowing the ice to thicken to whatever level it can.  It also cuts off moisture transfer from the ocean which is a huge game changer.

Recovery is something else.  It is the strengthening of surviving ice into 2yi or myi and the full creation of FYI to the maximum thickness.  Meaning an increase in volume which can then resist the next years melting season.

For me, recovery has nothing to do with the summer low the year before.  It has to do with the comparison between the previous winter max volume and the current max volume (or the comparison for the same day of the year).

As for extent, I would never use extent, but with cryosphere today down this year I’m left with Chartic which allows me to select years and compare them.  I have always used area to make comparisons up to this year and I’ve used CT because I was able to select the years I wanted to compare, not play with a graph of years someone else wanted me to see.

But, even then, to suggest that extent plays no role in the dynamics of the freezing season is disingenuous.  Just because it doesn’t tell you how thick the ice is, or how thick it is becoming, does not mean that it is not having an impact on the energy transfer between ocean and atmosphere nor having an impact on the weather which is causing such havoc.

Yes there are storms tearing the ice up, waves and swell mashing everything together, but every 100kkm^2 covered by ice, that’s another change in the dynamics of the ice/ocean/atmosphere balance.  Ignore that and you won’t be right when you try to see into the coming freezing season, spring or summer melt.

I’ve never claimed that this forum was an echo chamber but I can say that I’ve been pretty frustrated time and time again.  Back last spring I posted a link to a study which showed that extensive opening of the ice to allow the ocean to interact with the atmosphere causes more moisture than expected leading to more storms, but also more clouds.  Nobody commented.  Not a person. Did anyone even read it?  Why was I right about the stall?  Weeks/months before anyone else.  Why was I right about the August rush to melt?  Why was I right in claiming that not only would the ice loss would not go blue ocean, but that it would also not exceed 2012.  Constant and close focus on the numbers in the spring of 2016 could easily have led to the strong belief that we were going to experience a 2012 style event.  However a little broader viewpoint would have revealed that this was unlikely.  Not impossible, just unlikely.

Why was I talking about an extended melt/freeze/melt in September/October back in July?  Same reason.

Now I’m told that because I’m focusing on something else, I’m wrong, that I’m trolling, that I’m denying something.

Really?  Go figure.  I’m saying 2017 is going to be a shocker for melt but it is still unlikely to be blue ocean.  As has been proven time and time again, even with the MYI transport and the ice trashing with storms, there is still too much ice to go blue ocean in one season unless it is truly exceptional.  2007 was truly exceptional but there was just too much ice to melt.

If that’s trolling, then I’m in the wrong place.  If this thread is only for those who want to either obsess on the day by day figures, the storms, the specific temperatures in specific places, whilst ignoring the larger impacts of the greater areas which are slowly covering over with inexorable growth of ice cover.  If this thread is the place where people can make wild and unsubstantiated guesses as to how bad things will be, quite happily tolerated; but someone who says that things are slowly descending into the chaos we are all know is coming is constantly denigrated or told to shut up, then I’m in the wrong place.

If this thread is simply a place for the production of and crunching of, images and numbers, then pleas say so and I’ll come back from time to time to catch up on where you are “today” and ignore all the bits I don’t want to know about.
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Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2205 on: January 26, 2017, 06:50:45 PM »
Has anyone checked the CO2 map @nullschool lately? They must have some glitch in the system, cuz it's currently showing 450+ PPM at the north pole and close to 500 in many parts of Europe and NA. I'm sure it's a fluke but looks scary nevertheless.  :o

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2206 on: January 26, 2017, 07:01:28 PM »
Here's what Mark C. Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, concludes:
Quote
But after studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme.

Some might think that last year's melt season was a blessing because we started the year at a record low extent maximum and a *recovery* took place since we only achieved the second lowest summer extent minimum. Mark continues . . .
Quote
With much less ice than normal at winter’s end, the melt season started out on a bad foot, leading to speculation that the following September would also see a new record low. As it turned out, the seasonal minimum extent, which occurred on Sept. 10, ended up as only the second lowest on record, largely because of the remarkably stormy conditions that occurred during the summer, including a pair of tremendously strong and deep low-pressure systems in August. Strong low-pressure systems have a tendency to chew up the ice cover, but they also tend to spread sea ice out over a larger area and bring cloudy and relatively cool conditions with them that inhibit melting. The summer of 2016 was the stormiest summer over the central Arctic Ocean in my experience.

Yes those summer storms kept us from reaching a record low extent, but they also weakened the ice, mixed up the halocline, etc.  Year round storms in the Arctic are changing the playing field dramatically, and on this new playing field, sea ice extent is increasingly becoming less important, especially up to the point where it goes poof.

Link to Mark's "Crazy times in the Arctic": https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/comment-crazy-times-arctic

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2207 on: January 26, 2017, 07:03:45 PM »
Quote
please say so and I’ll come back from time to time and  ignore all the science bits
Good plan and goodbye. This is the 2016-17 freezing season forum. Period. The devil is in the details. Science is not everyone's cup of tea.

We have 1400+ other forums for big picture speculation, gut feelings, intuitive musings, and most everything else -- some of it very good. Or start your own, see what sort of following it draws.

Quote
PIOMAS volume will be very revealing.
Right. Extent has just proven a distraction and entry point for disinformationists. Why obsess over a single lumped extent when there's a daily SMOS map? That gives both the extent map as well as thin ice. For the Arctic Ocean. Not lakes down in the tullies.

In terms of waiting around for daily Piomas, it seems like daily volume must be implicit in jaxa as well as hycom thicknesses (just sum over pixels * thickness color). They are not releasing the underlying netCDF files from which these maps are made as far as I know. Maybe no one has ever expressed interest in them. The Cryosat page however does have a click that gives the volume integral of surface thickness.

It is feasible to extract volume from online thickness maps, even on these heavily dithered images and broken palettes. It won't be as accurate as going back to the original gridded data. As with Piomas, it's really better to look at successive daily difference because systematic and seasonal error gets subtracted off, reducing overall error. We're mostly interested in change.

The easiest way to go is tile up a time series into a single very wide file. Then force the muddy colors into discrete bins, either by passing briefly to indexed color (say 16) or posterizing (for contour lines). The palette goes along for the ride. Afterwards, in gimp simply click on each bin and copy out the histogram count; ImageJ will provide them as R,G,B values in text columns.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/monitor
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 10:48:18 PM by A-Team »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2208 on: January 26, 2017, 07:41:45 PM »
Has anyone checked the CO2 map @nullschool lately? They must have some glitch in the system, cuz it's currently showing 450+ PPM at the north pole and close to 500 in many parts of Europe and NA. I'm sure it's a fluke but looks scary nevertheless.  :o
I have heard it was a fluke several hours ago, but am starting to wonder. Seems like it would be fixed by now if so. It started to show up late on the 23rd and spread afterward. It looks real because of the way it progressively spread over time. Maybe the atmosphere is not pulling it up anymore because of the moisture content. Super-smog.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 08:01:50 PM by Tigertown »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2209 on: January 26, 2017, 07:44:03 PM »
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 02:15:33 PM by Jim Hunt »
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2210 on: January 26, 2017, 08:07:21 PM »
Personally, I've simply grown tired and bored with those who engage in trollish behavior: showing "concern' for the forum by repeatedly chastising those of us who report the ice situation as we see it, combatively introducing nonsensical WUWT talking points, responding to disagreements with overly-defensive cries of "Well, I guess I'm just stupid and you guys are all so smart!". And so on, the same exact behavior I've witnessed on a hundred other science-based forums over the years. I'm not one for censorship, but I *do* often find myself wistfully wishing people such as that would go play in less sober-minded sandboxes, and leave this one for the serious people.

(Apologies to Neven for the wildly OT rant.)

Not OT at all, Jim. I'm in full agreement. The geometry of the Arctic ocean combined with the lack of sun pretty much assures that the surface will be ice covered until warm Atlantic waters penetrate deep into the Arctic ocean and mix with the relatively fresh water layer in the middle of winter. That's why we have seen the annual winter "recovery" in extent despite the insanely warm weather.

I wish to get back to the science. There is obvious concern trolling going on, but it's just a distraction.

Darvince

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2211 on: January 26, 2017, 09:57:20 PM »
I have heard it was a fluke several hours ago, but am starting to wonder. Seems like it would be fixed by now if so. It started to show up late on the 23rd and spread afterward. It looks real because of the way it progressively spread over time. Maybe the atmosphere is not pulling it up anymore because of the moisture content. Super-smog.
If you read the documentation for nullschool, you will note that the creator pulls the data from the GEOS-5 model, which for some reason output data with a global average of 368ppm. GEOS-5 has been updated, and now produces correct CO2 data, but nullschool still does the adjustment resulting in the global average appearing to be in the upper 430ppms, when in reality it is 405ppm as can be viewed if you visit the CO2 threads elsewhere on the forum.

Also, I don't make many posts about how it's declining or how the ice is in bad shape because I don't have anything to add as everyone else already articulates basically every single angle on how it could be viewed negatively.

Edit:
It wasn't a smooth transition at all:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/24/0130Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-35.74,28.27,463
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/24/0430Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-35.74,28.27,463
« Last Edit: January 26, 2017, 10:09:20 PM by Darvince »

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2212 on: January 26, 2017, 10:26:52 PM »
<snip>


Now I’m told that because I’m focusing on something else, I’m wrong, that I’m trolling, that I’m denying something.

Really?  Go figure.  I’m saying 2017 is going to be a shocker for melt but it is still unlikely to be blue ocean.  As has been proven time and time again, even with the MYI transport and the ice trashing with storms, there is still too much ice to go blue ocean in one season unless it is truly exceptional.  2007 was truly exceptional but there was just too much ice to melt.


<snap>

Realism is unpopular. Unpopular is trolling.  Or good science. 

I'd say what you are saying a bit differently.  I'd say that the top layer of water has to little salt in it to go blue water.  Keep ice production off for several years and that wont be true.  But the run off is what 2/3 of the fresh water input, so that needs to be stirred up to not freeze.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2213 on: January 26, 2017, 10:45:49 PM »
@Darvince
Yes I had actually read that on Earth Nullschool earlier, but the offset is only 32 ppm. If you go back several months into last year say for example 7-28-2016, and pick a  set of co-ordinates, say 43.98 N by 89.66 W and check the surface concentration of CO2, it is 387 ppm. Advancing gradually in time, you can watch it grow. It now reads 462 ppm, which would be 430 ppm adjusted. So if what you are saying about the data being corrected is true, which I don't doubt, then the fluke was simply an advance warning of where we are headed.



No more on this thread for this. If see the need will open new thread.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 12:41:09 AM by Tigertown »
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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2214 on: January 26, 2017, 11:10:31 PM »
Personally, I've simply grown tired and bored with those who engage in trollish behavior: showing "concern' for the forum by repeatedly chastising those of us who report the ice situation as we see it, combatively introducing nonsensical WUWT talking points, responding to disagreements with overly-defensive cries of "Well, I guess I'm just stupid and you guys are all so smart!". And so on, the same exact behavior I've witnessed on a hundred other science-based forums over the years. I'm not one for censorship, but I *do* often find myself wistfully wishing people such as that would go play in less sober-minded sandboxes, and leave this one for the serious people.

(Apologies to Neven for the wildly OT rant.)

Not OT at all, Jim. I'm in full agreement. The geometry of the Arctic ocean combined with the lack of sun pretty much assures that the surface will be ice covered until warm Atlantic waters penetrate deep into the Arctic ocean and mix with the relatively fresh water layer in the middle of winter. That's why we have seen the annual winter "recovery" in extent despite the insanely warm weather.

I wish to get back to the science. There is obvious concern trolling going on, but it's just a distraction.
Have to agree with both of you here about the obvious concern trolling. This has become on-topic by way of the explosion caused by FTB's very unscientific post (Oct-Dec recovery? Jan Stall? One look at any chart uncovers the BS), full of false concern about the terrible behavior on this forum, which managed to derail a very fruitful discussion about a very interesting freezing season. It's not the first time either, otherwise I would keep my mouth shut.
And yes, sometimes this forum does have some bias, and some unpopular statements sometimes get flamed, but a good scientific argument always wins the day regardless of its (un)popularity, and that is the important thing. If you're science-oriented ,you're in the right place. Unpopular statements are not trolling.

Herfried

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2215 on: January 26, 2017, 11:43:26 PM »
Storms... and storms are not the same. I quite can remember, how winter storms in 2012/3 greatly helped refreezing after the badass melting season 2012/3. I know, the real reason for the rebound was the summer, and repeated in 2014. But the winter storms after the big melt helped. The tore the ice apart - true - but Fram export was rather low, ice floes were pushed upon each other, the leads froze back over. All in all, it just increased radiation into space. Also these storms were not that bad in keeping colder air over the arctic ocean, while the whole season was still a bit warmer, than average, there were pretty cold episodes - associated with the storms.

This year the weather is ... new. Likewise the temperature curve is just shifted upwards, so that the coldest periods are still way too warm. Yet, the storms were always pushing warm air and warm water into the system. It changes now, drawing in continental air masses, but STILL the arctic will likely just stay too warm.
Obviously, warm storms are less conductive for freezing, they bring in clouds, moisture, back-radiation from these clouds and insulating snow covers.
But what is striking this year, beside the temperature - is the Fram export. 20, 30, 40 km of ice migration towards the exit a day... for weeks... constantly! And that blow is really hitting the reserves of thick ice.

While, now with export of ice and cold air to seas around the arctic, the overall ice sheet may grow extent-wise. But the volume has hard times. And loads of thin (and very thin, less then half a meter thickness) ice formed n the periphery - that's gone before the spring sun will climb high above the horizon. 2012 really showed this.

Maybe... now the storms are getting a bit more ice friendly, but in a few days the northern hemisphere weather maps start to show again, how the polar cold air mass is ripped apart and how warm air is mixing in - again. The critical question will be the early spring. Can the cold air than been held some time stable, delay the melting likewise 2013, 14 - or will we see an early start? The ice definitely is weaker than ever..

subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2216 on: January 27, 2017, 12:24:43 AM »
Talk of proper seasonal cold returning seems premature to me. The ESS looks to be expecting above freezing conditions in 5 days or so, combined with a massive plume of moisture

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2217 on: January 27, 2017, 02:03:02 AM »

But, here I have to also stand up and make a statement to this trend.  There have been winter predictions, on this thread, anticipating that the extent won’t go over 12m.  Then dire predictions of loss and reversal and just about every other kind of prediction; that the incoming heat from a few storms could overcome the general trend of an Arctic winter with no sun to warm the ocean.

Reality?  The real question is how far over 14m will it go and will it really go over 14.5m or will it say ~400k below 2007, as it started the year, throughout the entire winter, or will it do as 2012 did and have a late pseudo recovery, just in time for the denialists to trumpet it and then a long and sustained fall?

Thought I need to check this. We have a 2017 SIE prediction thread with most of the informed regulars weighing in here....

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1835.50.html

The person who voted for <12.5 got quite a bit of grief.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2218 on: January 27, 2017, 02:36:59 AM »
I'm no expert but this geopotential forecast that goes along with the coming intrusion of heat looks really odd. The warm area is also ringed by a 'bubble' off the jetstream. It's still a few days away, but the last 3 days runs have been pretty consistent about this.

Is the winter troposhere going to turn into a donut around the pole when the Ocean goes blue?

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2219 on: January 27, 2017, 03:00:57 AM »
Personally, I've simply grown tired and bored with those who engage in trollish behavior: showing "concern' for the forum by repeatedly chastising those of us who report the ice situation as we see it, combatively introducing nonsensical WUWT talking points, responding to disagreements with overly-defensive cries of "Well, I guess I'm just stupid and you guys are all so smart!". And so on, the same exact behavior I've witnessed on a hundred other science-based forums over the years. I'm not one for censorship, but I *do* often find myself wistfully wishing people such as that would go play in less sober-minded sandboxes, and leave this one for the serious people.

(Apologies to Neven for the wildly OT rant.)

Not OT at all, Jim. I'm in full agreement. The geometry of the Arctic ocean combined with the lack of sun pretty much assures that the surface will be ice covered until warm Atlantic waters penetrate deep into the Arctic ocean and mix with the relatively fresh water layer in the middle of winter. That's why we have seen the annual winter "recovery" in extent despite the insanely warm weather.

I wish to get back to the science. There is obvious concern trolling going on, but it's just a distraction.

Right. We've just shown how it only takes ~1900 FDDs (or 40% of past seasonal totals) to get ice cover extent over most of the historical range. Granted, there was a pre-existing pack to work off of, but it's probably going to take another 3-4C of arctic warming to cut it down far enough to get into March and not have those ranges covered. By that point, September ice will probably be long gone. Winter ice sticks around until the winter average gets above about -9C. After that, according to Tziperman et. al and a few other papers, the system rapidly bifurcates and disappears almost altogether.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2220 on: January 27, 2017, 03:15:21 AM »
Storms... and storms are not the same. I quite can remember, how winter storms in 2012/3 greatly helped refreezing after the badass melting season 2012/3. ...

The critical question will be the early spring. Can the cold air than been held some time stable, delay the melting likewise 2013, 14 - or will we see an early start? The ice definitely is weaker than ever..

There was a major stratospheric warming in early January 2013 and strong high pressure built over the Arctic ocean in February in response to the strong subsidence over the pole that followed the warming. Radiational cooling and ice volume accumulation around the central Arctic was intensified by the long-lived high.

This January the stratospheric polar vortex has been displaced from the pole by multiple events of strong wave activity and the displacement has favored the advection of warm air towards the pole.

We aren't going to see anything like spring 2013 this year because of the very different stratospheric circulation and Arctic oscillation this winter.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2221 on: January 27, 2017, 03:17:25 AM »

Right. We've just shown how it only takes ~1900 FDDs (or 40% of past seasonal totals) to get ice cover extent over most of the historical range. Granted, there was a pre-existing pack to work off off

That's a very good observation. Extent is perhaps not sensitive to FDD. That would be an interesting graph to plot. FDD versus extent.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2222 on: January 27, 2017, 03:21:42 AM »
Quote
After that, according to Tziperman the system rapidly bifurcates and disappears almost altogether.
Csnav, are you saying here you have access to the first two preprints below?

Wanying Kang and E. Tziperman. Response of sudden stratospheric warming events
to enhanced MJO forcing in a warmer climate. in prep, 2017.

M. Kretschmer, D. Coumou, L. Agel, M. Barlow, E. Tziperman, and J. Cohen. Increased
frequency of boreal winters with a weak stratospheric polar vortex and mid-latitude cold
air outbreaks. submitted, ( ): , 2017.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation SSW coming ~ Feb 6th

The older papers are available for download here:

http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/etcv.pdf

 J. C. Furtado, J. L. Cohen, and E. Tziperman. The combined influence of autumnal
Arctic snow and sea ice covers on the northern hemispheric wintertime circulation.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 43:doi:10.1002/2016GL068108, 2016. download.

D. G. MacMartin, L. Zanna, and E. Tziperman. Suppression of AMOC variability
with increased CO2. J. Climate, 29:4155–4164, doi:10.1175/JCLI–D–15–0533.1, 2016.
download.

J. Cohen, J. Jones, J. C. Furtado, and E. Tziperman. Warm arctic, cold continents:
a common pattern related to arctic sea ice melt, snow advance, and extreme winter
weather. Oceanography, 26(4):150–160, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.70,
2013. download.

A. A. Robel and E. Tziperman. The role of ice stream dynamics in deglaciation. J.
Geophys. Res. Earth Surf, 121:1–15, doi:10.1002/2016JF003937, 2016. download.

C. Horvat, E. Tziperman, and Jean-Michel Campin. Interaction of sea ice floe size, ocean
eddies and sea ice melting. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(doi:10.1002/2016GL069742):80838090,
2016. download.

J. Shaman and E. Tziperman. The superposition of eastward and westward Rossby
waves in response to localized forcing. J. Climate, 29(doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0119.1):7547–
7557, 2016. download.

J. C. Furtado, J. L. Cohen, and E. Tziperman. The combined influence of autumnal
Arctic snow and sea ice covers on the northern hemispheric wintertime circulation.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 43:doi:10.1002/2016GL068108, 2016. download.

T. W. Cronin and E. Tziperman. Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and
amplify high-latitude continental winter warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.,
112(37):11490–11495, 10.1073/pnas.1510937112, 2015. download.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 03:39:00 AM by A-Team »

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2223 on: January 27, 2017, 04:20:07 AM »
Csnav, are you saying here you have access to the first two preprints below?

No, the Tziperman paper I refer to is an older series (right after the Abbot/Tziperman paper about Radiative (Convective) Cloud Feedback), though this wasn't the only paper I recall that had this bifurcation behavior. I had this in a big pile before I lost the data to a hard drive crash -- so I have to dig them up again.

Perhaps the more pertinent paper in our current case (with respect to atmospheric circulation feedback) is Nakamura et. al 2016: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308009569_On_the_atmospheric_response_experiment_to_a_Blue_Arctic_Ocean_Climate_Response_to_Blue_Arctic_Ocean

The results of the modeling experiments are eerily similar to our current situation, and published right before the start of this season's ridiculous warmth.

Note the modeled response at lm50 (ice free fall) as opposed to the AICE case (which is close to our current state). It makes this winter look like peanuts. I'll post some of the supplementary material for all to view momentarily.

The lm30-40 treatments are a bit wonky and probably not applicable directly to a transition to ice-free, but do potentially show how strongly atmospheric circulation can react to decreasing ice.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 04:35:46 AM by Csnavywx »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2224 on: January 27, 2017, 04:29:46 AM »
I'm no expert but this geopotential forecast that goes along with the coming intrusion of heat looks really odd. The warm area is also ringed by a 'bubble' off the jetstream. It's still a few days away, but the last 3 days runs have been pretty consistent about this.

Is the winter troposhere going to turn into a donut around the pole when the Ocean goes blue?

I agree!  The 250 and 500 HPa geopotential height wind maps for both the pacific and the atlantic are striking over the next few days.  I don't know what to call it.  but it is pretty massive.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/29/0300Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=9.62,64.05,355
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2225 on: January 27, 2017, 05:01:42 AM »
Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Jan 26, 2017:
Climatology: 2899.4
2017:            1683.9
Anomaly:     -1215.4



Implied new ice thickness to date:
Per Lebedev:
Climo: 1.688 m
2017:   1.225 m

Per Billelo
Climo:  1.355 m
2017:    0.989 m


Note: Anyone claiming a "recovery" in extent is ignoring new ice thickness this year is 27% less than climatology and 10 to 15% less than the average of the past decade.  The accumulated FDD anomaly is now greater than at *any* time in the DMI N80 dataset with 40% of the freezing season still to go.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2226 on: January 27, 2017, 05:10:58 AM »
Nakamura et al. 2016 (figure 4 from Supplemental Material):

The left shows the AICE run from their paper for January. (Based on 2005-2009 sea ice concentration).

The right shows their lm50 (ice free August-Sept-Oct though an ice free Sept is probably close enough) run for January. By this point, the enormous heat flux causes the troposphere to decouple from the stratosphere.

Note the increasing tendency for ridging on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the pack. That looks familiar....
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 05:34:43 AM by Csnavywx »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2227 on: January 27, 2017, 07:09:37 AM »

But, here I have to also stand up and make a statement to this trend.  There have been winter predictions, on this thread, anticipating that the extent won’t go over 12m.  Then dire predictions of loss and reversal and just about every other kind of prediction; that the incoming heat from a few storms could overcome the general trend of an Arctic winter with no sun to warm the ocean.

Reality?  The real question is how far over 14m will it go and will it really go over 14.5m or will it say ~400k below 2007, as it started the year, throughout the entire winter, or will it do as 2012 did and have a late pseudo recovery, just in time for the denialists to trumpet it and then a long and sustained fall?

Thought I need to check this. We have a 2017 SIE prediction thread with most of the informed regulars weighing in here....

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1835.50.html

The person who voted for <12.5 got quite a bit of grief.
I'm with SH here, NeilT.  Most of us (including me) thought we'd cozy up to 14M KM2 +/- a few.  Don't know where you got the idea (the collective) We thought it wouldn't get past 12...
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2228 on: January 27, 2017, 07:16:49 AM »

Right. We've just shown how it only takes ~1900 FDDs (or 40% of past seasonal totals) to get ice cover extent over most of the historical range. Granted, there was a pre-existing pack to work off off

That's a very good observation. Extent is perhaps not sensitive to FDD. That would be an interesting graph to plot. FDD versus extent.
Interesting, but doubt it would be useful for anything other than an academic exercise. 

It would be noisy for sure, as FDDs I expect are going to be much more indicative of how much the ice thickens, rather than how much surface it covers.  Anecdotally, I remember looking at CT extent graphs from various years where you have open water in places like the Bering and Kara, but still got good thickening of ice in the CAB and elsewhere because temperatures over those areas stayed cold enough to let it.

(Edit)
Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Jan 26, 2017:
Climatology: 2899.4
2017:            1683.9
Anomaly:     -1215.4
Dang, ktonine!  Considering trends, we may not make it to 1.5M implied thickness.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 07:23:44 AM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2229 on: January 27, 2017, 08:56:56 AM »
On a different subtopic, it looks like wind forecasts may be conducive to Fram export:



EDIT: full series here https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/forecasts

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2230 on: January 27, 2017, 12:44:00 PM »
5-day averaged MSL pressure ECMWF, next 5 days. Tendency to build up pressures in the Pacific half.
The Transpolar drift is beating records this year.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2231 on: January 27, 2017, 01:32:51 PM »
I'm with SH here, NeilT.  Most of us (including me) thought we'd cozy up to 14M KM2 +/- a few.  Don't know where you got the idea (the collective) We thought it wouldn't get past 12...

Sorry jdallen, wasn't saying that.  I was talking about tolerance and approach to ideas which were running against the observed trend.

Granted Friv was eventually blocked and faced a lot of criticism because his claims were totally unlikely given the known heat balance and forcings.

I was, more, talking about the general tolerance (if not acceptance), of more extreme predictions in the direction of the (very), short term trend.  Whereas there is quite significant resistance to any prediction which flies in the face of the short term trend.

I'm talking days or, at most one or two weeks.  If you look at the chartic zoom's which I've posted, the short term trend for January is up for ice coverage (extent and, even, area).

It's just an observation which I am talking about, a general trend.  I know this subject is emotive.  I have a niece who is doing her PHD in a climate related field and she's completely bowed out of the whole discussion because it is so emotive.  She just focuses on the science and leaves us to talk about it.

Anyway I don't want to take this any more off topic and I'm happy to drop it.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2232 on: January 27, 2017, 02:18:42 PM »
I think we need a new measure, linked to volume and FDD, looking at full melt out potential?

If we have a figure for the average energy poured into the basin over an average melt season then we could figure just how much energy would be need to melt out certain volumes of ice with certain core temps?

Did I see that someone had ball park figured the FDD threshold for melt out?

Anyhow it would make the freeze season less contentious with all the to-ing and fro-ing  with every rise/fall in extent?

As it is the ease we saw last years pack melt , due to the lack of FDD's over winter, will be surpassed by the coming melt season if FDD's are giving us an 'ease of melt' indices ?

All the ice currently being formed, and so giving rise to the discussions, is across areas that always see enough energy over summer to be completely melted out. The area of the pack that has , historically, seen ice survive summer should be the areas we focus our attentions on if we want a guide as to how melt season will go this year?

The near constant export of ice through Fram is surely damaging the central pack making it less resilient due to the addition of late formed FY ice filling in areas being lost to Fram?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2233 on: January 27, 2017, 02:20:42 PM »
Personally, I've simply grown tired and bored with those who engage in trollish behavior: showing "concern' for the forum by repeatedly chastising those of us who report the ice situation as we see it, combatively introducing nonsensical WUWT talking points, responding to disagreements with overly-defensive cries of "Well, I guess I'm just stupid and you guys are all so smart!". And so on, the same exact behavior I've witnessed on a hundred other science-based forums over the years. I'm not one for censorship, but I *do* often find myself wistfully wishing people such as that would go play in less sober-minded sandboxes, and leave this one for the serious people.

(Apologies to Neven for the wildly OT rant.)

Not OT at all, Jim. I'm in full agreement. The geometry of the Arctic ocean combined with the lack of sun pretty much assures that the surface will be ice covered until warm Atlantic waters penetrate deep into the Arctic ocean and mix with the relatively fresh water layer in the middle of winter. That's why we have seen the annual winter "recovery" in extent despite the insanely warm weather.

I wish to get back to the science. There is obvious concern trolling going on, but it's just a distraction.

Right. We've just shown how it only takes ~1900 FDDs (or 40% of past seasonal totals) to get ice cover extent over most of the historical range. Granted, there was a pre-existing pack to work off of, but it's probably going to take another 3-4C of arctic warming to cut it down far enough to get into March and not have those ranges covered. By that point, September ice will probably be long gone. Winter ice sticks around until the winter average gets above about -9C. After that, according to Tziperman et. al and a few other papers, the system rapidly bifurcates and disappears almost altogether.

this is quite a spot on way to look at things, thanks for putting this basic observation into very good and comprehensive words.

+1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2234 on: January 27, 2017, 02:31:21 PM »
It looks like another step backwards in both NSIDC and JAXA extent. Also, the last storm seems to have made volume stagger a bit, but it didn't do quite the damage of it's predecessor. Still, damage from the smaller storms add up. Plus, these help run the clock out.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2235 on: January 27, 2017, 02:40:34 PM »
It looks like another step backwards in both NSIDC and JAXA extent. Also, the last storm seems to have made volume stagger a bit, but it didn't do quite the damage of it's predecessor. Still, damage from the smaller storms add up. Plus, these help run the clock out.


once again you included the key argument, time is running out, that's the point, each stall and/or drop, in addition to the already poor conditions of the ice in general, takes away a few days from the remaining time to freeze.

i still believe that we are in for some kind of sudden (ice)death next summer, appropriate weather provided.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2236 on: January 27, 2017, 03:37:18 PM »
The ice thickness and FDD pictures look like it's early January or even December. Almost the whole month of freezing missed. The rest of the freezing season could open even more areas of very thin ice

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2237 on: January 27, 2017, 03:55:55 PM »
There are storms all around just outside the Arctic today and rough seas in the Barents and Bering Seas. 9.5 meter waves are just off Hudson Strait and some other what we might call minor disturbances in the CAB. Nothing that will wipe out the ice overnight, but not ideal conditions for recovery either.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2238 on: January 27, 2017, 04:11:22 PM »
Add to the mix robust Fram export, the upcoming melt season could be disastrous.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2239 on: January 27, 2017, 04:37:12 PM »
Hycom shows significant recent ice growth (thickening) in the Beaufort with conditions condusive to increased thickness growth through the near-term forecast period.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2240 on: January 27, 2017, 04:44:30 PM »
Hycom shows significant recent ice growth (thickening) in the Beaufort with conditions condusive to increased thickness growth through the near-term forecast period.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif



what might be significant here i cannot tell with absolute certainty but what one can tell is that temperatures in that area are constantly between 10 and 20C above normal with very few hours when it's not. just let the forecast run using the link below:

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom

question is whether we can still trust 100% us-government owned channels LOL ( half kidding )

what i want to throw in to consider is that even if the ice is indeed growing in thickness:

a) it's totally to be expected for this time of the year, nothing out of the ordinary
b) growth is most probably less than average when putting into account the higher than avg. temps.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 04:59:44 PM by magnamentis »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2241 on: January 27, 2017, 05:04:31 PM »
This late in the Arctic winter, our near real-time monitoring products have mostly faded out (except at the Pacific and Atlantic interfaces), with the last to go being SMOS ice thinness from IUP Bremen (which is now being integrated into multiple other products).

That is, once the ice is thicker than a half meter, there's nothing more to see. The flip side of this however is SMOS will be the first to show melt season onset, as there'll be 0.49 m ice long before open water retrievals will see a peripheral ice edge.

Thus the (somewhat wobbly) arrival of the new Cryosat-2/SMOS hybrid product at U Hamburg's Meereisportal.de fills an important monitoring gap at a time when extent and concentration are uninformative for inter-year comparisons of Arctic Ocean sea ice status..

At http://www.meereisportal.de/de/ navigate to weekly Arctic hybrid, enter date range, enter nein on Kartenvorschau., then hit Anzeigen. The maps are attractive, at a generous scale, and correctly paletted (50 map colors for 50 thickness cuts) but with Greenland off-center by 45º CW.  Cryosat ground swaths being narrow, it takes a week to build up coverage (they have a drift product too).

It is quite interesting how they actually make CryoSmos, though the basic idea is straightforward: the soil moisture satellite is accurate on thin ice where percent freeboard error is too high for Cryosat which however works well on thick rough ice. This is an all-weather, winter season observational product and so differs from Piomas. The 24 Jan 2017 paper is well-written, open source, with some mildly technical sections:

A Weekly Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness Data Record from merged CryoSat-2 and SMOS Satellite Data
R Ricker, S Hendricks, L Kaleschke, X Tian-Kunze, J King, C Haas

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2017-4/tc-2017-4.pdf free full

The menu hints at 7 weeks of 2017 products but these are not yet available (they would have been in old-time Germany). However there is excellent coverage of both sides of the game-changing storm of 28-30 Dec 2015, below. The second time series just illustrates how two ice thickness ranges changed over the eight weeks.

The third looks in more detail at what happened to ice thickness during the storm. Although the projection is not equal area, ice volume can still be estimated, eg 4000 pixels of 2 m thickness makes for 8000 m^3 which could have provided already from gridded data.

The spreadsheet binning shows thickness distribution was redistribution but it doesn't appear that any dramatic conclusions can be drawn about the effects of radiative balance changes brought by the storm.

The fourth animation shows differencing of successive week pairs. Because the temporal resolution is just weekly, a longer range of dates may be needed. The warmth from the storm is reported as lasting over a month but that still might mean thickening ice, just not as much as had there not been this storm.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2242 on: January 27, 2017, 09:50:43 PM »
Quote
#2240: thickening in the Beaufort with conditions condusive to increased thickness growth through the near-term forecast period.
Today being Jan 26th and that animation forecast ending Jan 14th? They don't seem to be updating either the 30 day or the 365 day for the orphaned Beaufort page. The main page updates the whole Arctic to Feb 3rd.

Noteworthy in the forecast: Bering Strait export seems to reverse itself to import, slight thickening trend in Beaufort (note drama in creeping dark color does not correspond to drama in actual thickness); and Transpolar Drift as noted above manifesting itself as strong Fram export, there being inconsequential volume of thick ice left along the CAA and the central ~2m ice slumping badly towards the North Atlantic.

For several weeks now, through Jan 25th, SMOS observational has been in conflict with hycom model in the middle Beaufort. Elsewhere, no palpable thickening is foreseen even by hycom. AMSR2 is in serious conflict over at Franz Josef. Another day or two is needed to confirm the bizarre waves of disintegration of sea ice concentration being imaged. The whole front appears to be eroding poleward.

We may not have dug deep enough into doom-and-gloom scenarios as yet.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 10:07:55 PM by A-Team »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2243 on: January 27, 2017, 10:02:13 PM »
@A-Team
You can see that damage the pointers are marking on here(below) also. I noticed it earlier, but didn't quite know what to make of it.
www.seaice.dk/latest/todays-sentinel1-n-3daymos.jpg

And here.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

P.S.  What's up over by the New Siberian Islands?
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 10:08:20 PM by Tigertown »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2244 on: January 27, 2017, 10:27:02 PM »
Sorry for not intervening earlier, as I was travelling for two days.

I'm done with Feeltheburn's concern trolling and so he is put under moderation (meaning I have to approve his posts before they become visible).

Let me be clear about this: I don't like alarmism, and I sure as hell don't like denialism. But perhaps there is one thing that I dislike even more, and that's when people gloat about some thing they think they were right about, and everybody else was wrong (according to their big brush) and persecuted them for their obviously brilliant theory.

This isn't some game where he whose prediction turns out to be right, has the biggest dick. We all have equally small dicks. The echo here doesn't carry far enough to consider the whole ASIF to be one homogeneous group (except that most people here are worried about AGW).

And viddaloo was banned because he was an asshole, creating conflicts everywhere, not because he had a simplistic statistical extrapolation without any physical basis. So please, don't use him as an example or call him friv. Friv made great contributions with a sense of humour, and had no problems whatsoever with being wrong about something. I hope to see him back again.

No more concern trolling, no more gloating. Thanks.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 10:46:44 PM by Neven »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2245 on: January 27, 2017, 10:41:08 PM »
Can anyone get a good image(from today) of the ESS, please? Would very much appreciate.

Trying to get a better view of this. It seems to be new today, as I can't find any sign of it before today.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 12:21:34 AM by Tigertown »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2246 on: January 27, 2017, 11:04:01 PM »
Friv made great contributions with a sense of humour, and had no problems whatsoever with being wrong about something. I hope to see him back again.

As do I.

A-Team, Tiger

It appears that those fracture points are wind driven events as a result of the stationary low that was situated to the north and west of Severnaya Zemla over the last 4 days or so.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/27/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=27.09,82.08,1874

Perhaps they are giving us a good indication of where the more solid pack is (and isn't).
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 11:12:29 PM by jai mitchell »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2247 on: January 28, 2017, 12:55:52 AM »
Sorry for not intervening earlier, as I was travelling for two days.

....

No more concern trolling, no more gloating. Thanks.

Thanks. I read (and very occasionally post to) this forum because it contains interesting discussion with very little internecine warfare over facts and theories. Moderation helps keep it that way.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2248 on: January 28, 2017, 01:43:47 AM »
Sorry for not intervening earlier, as I was travelling for two days.

I'm done with Feeltheburn's concern trolling and so he is put under moderation (meaning I have to approve his posts before they become visible).

Let me be clear about this: I don't like alarmism, and I sure as hell don't like denialism. But perhaps there is one thing that I dislike even more, and that's when people gloat about some thing they think they were right about, and everybody else was wrong (according to their big brush) and persecuted them for their obviously brilliant theory.

This isn't some game where he whose prediction turns out to be right, has the biggest dick. We all have equally small dicks. The echo here doesn't carry far enough to consider the whole ASIF to be one homogeneous group (except that most people here are worried about AGW).

And viddaloo was banned because he was an asshole, creating conflicts everywhere, not because he had a simplistic statistical extrapolation without any physical basis. So please, don't use him as an example or call him friv. Friv made great contributions with a sense of humour, and had no problems whatsoever with being wrong about something. I hope to see him back again.

No more concern trolling, no more gloating. Thanks.

Concerning Friv -

He's active on another local forum group that I'm on as well (a local weather forum) and is in contact with one of the members there. He hopes to be back quite soon.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2249 on: January 28, 2017, 01:56:13 AM »
No ESS yet but Worldview has pictures of the Bering Sea. On 24 Jan the Ice can be seen through the clouds, with a lot of melting ice at the front.

The first is a section centred around 60north and 170 west, the second a wider view showing the strait