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Author Topic: The 2016/2017 freezing season  (Read 911346 times)

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2350 on: January 31, 2017, 04:29:05 AM »
Just noticed 2.75 m waves in Nare's Strait on Earth NS. You can only imagine what is happening with the Sea Ice if everything is moving around that much to cause waves deep into the Strait.

mhampton

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2351 on: January 31, 2017, 04:34:29 AM »
Good comment, lifeblack. NeilT is totally off-topic. Again. Solar input after late August, preposterous. This cycle rubbish, recycled from his WUWT days, rebutted decades ago. Next up, ban him from the 2016/2017 season forum for distraction trolling.

Really?  Distraction trolling?  What a very interesting concept.

MY WUWT days?  Clearly, gone are the days when I get a cordial mention for taking down WUWT intransigence.  But, hey, that's life.

Quote
Solar input after late August,

Really?  That's going to hurt?  And just exactly where do these storms get their heat energy they are bringing  into the Arctic?  The tooth fairy?  Because it is not just the oceans.  Those weather events are born in the oceans which are in the light.

If that answer seems a bit harsh, then a review of the comment above might explain it.

And to answer a very reasonable question, no I was not looking for total solar irradiance because I was looking at the total solar activity.  Total solar irradiance factors in local phenomena affected by many factors such as local gasses and, as mentioned, albedo  Clearly total solar irradiance, in the Arctic, in winter, is a misnomer.  But total planetary impact by total solar activity is not.

Neven, you can ban me as requested, but, personally, this is the last time I accept the kind of comment I got above.  As the person who has put that comment in is a very prolific poster who provides very good graphics and data, I would expect that person to be valued far above my contributions.

It's been fun at times.  But it is no more.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume you are confused rather than a troll.  Do you realize how irrelevant the radio frequency is?  Here's a plot of energy from the sun in different wavelengths:


You'll notice that radio isn't on the plot - because its such a small fraction its meaningless, at least if the issue is energy input. 

Darvince

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2352 on: January 31, 2017, 06:40:17 AM »
Good comment, lifeblack. NeilT is totally off-topic. Again. Solar input after late August, preposterous. This cycle rubbish, recycled from his WUWT days, rebutted decades ago. Next up, ban him from the 2016/2017 season forum for distraction trolling.
you do realize that this is a general discussion thread and not a paper right

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2353 on: January 31, 2017, 06:52:07 AM »
Because of a LP system  already set up south of Iceland and meandering around for a few days, a strong wind up to 94 km/hr is blowing from north to south down the side of Greenland, and between it and Iceland. Similar conditions will persist until about Feb. 3rd. I think this will serve to boost the current already flowing in the same area and direction, and will be curious to see the effect on Fram export. The wind pushing ice toward the Fram will not be as strong. It will be interesting to see if the ice is pulled around the corner or sheared. Starting now and continuing to at least the 4th, a fairly strong wind will affect Nares export.

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2354 on: January 31, 2017, 07:31:59 AM »
Re sea ice decline & forcing. I am with lifeblack and mhampton here (Edit: wrt to content not the trolling accusation).
And even if you use TSI as forcing, Notz & Marotzke have shown in their 2012 paper that the influence of the sun is small (even net positiv?) compared to CO2 (on the decline over the last 40 years of course, not the annual melting). See figure 4 from the paper (even tough it is extent they are looking at) and Chris Reynolds post (which highlights the importance of self acceleration).

If CO2 is still as dominant today in a more moist Arctic, I don't know. But I guess these changes would qualify more as a feedback than a forcing?

Back to the present. Most of the Arctic ocean should, according to GFS, remain anomalously warm for the next 5 days at least
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 12:11:58 PM by S.Pansa »

Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2355 on: January 31, 2017, 07:44:44 AM »
Good comment, lifeblack. NeilT is totally off-topic. Again. Solar input after late August, preposterous. This cycle rubbish, recycled from his WUWT days, rebutted decades ago. Next up, ban him from the 2016/2017 season forum for distraction trolling.

Really?  Distraction trolling?  What a very interesting concept.

MY WUWT days?  Clearly, gone are the days when I get a cordial mention for taking down WUWT intransigence.  But, hey, that's life.

Quote
Solar input after late August,

Really?  That's going to hurt?  And just exactly where do these storms get their heat energy they are bringing  into the Arctic?  The tooth fairy?  Because it is not just the oceans.  Those weather events are born in the oceans which are in the light.

If that answer seems a bit harsh, then a review of the comment above might explain it.

And to answer a very reasonable question, no I was not looking for total solar irradiance because I was looking at the total solar activity.  Total solar irradiance factors in local phenomena affected by many factors such as local gasses and, as mentioned, albedo  Clearly total solar irradiance, in the Arctic, in winter, is a misnomer.  But total planetary impact by total solar activity is not.

Neven, you can ban me as requested, but, personally, this is the last time I accept the kind of comment I got above.  As the person who has put that comment in is a very prolific poster who provides very good graphics and data, I would expect that person to be valued far above my contributions.

It's been fun at times.  But it is no more.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume you are confused rather than a troll.  Do you realize how irrelevant the radio frequency is?

mhampton, I see you made 9 posts so far, so welcome to the forum !

Your remark "assume you are confused rather than a troll" against a forum contributor with 300 posts seems rather condescending especially since NeilT did not even mention "radio frequency" in his comment.

EDIT: I see that NeilT commented as follows :
Quote
The
solar flux is measured in solar flux units
(SFU) and is the amount of radio noise
or flux that is emitted at a frequency of
2800 MHz (10.7 cm)
which DOES indicate that he assumed that the solar flux is measured as radio noise (2800 MHz is clearly in the 'radio' part of the spectrum), so I take back my criticism and agree that NeilT probably was confused. Real solar irradiance is measured as TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) which covers the entire spectrum, just as 'lifeback' explained.

EDIT2 : These accusations of "WUWT days" and "cycle rubbish" against NeilT seem unfounded without references. Cut the guy some slack for alternative views, will you ?
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 08:28:30 AM by Rob Dekker »
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budmantis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2356 on: January 31, 2017, 07:59:36 AM »
Good comment, lifeblack. NeilT is totally off-topic. Again. Solar input after late August, preposterous. This cycle rubbish, recycled from his WUWT days, rebutted decades ago. Next up, ban him from the 2016/2017 season forum for distraction trolling.
you do realize that this is a general discussion thread and not a paper right

Referencing both Darvince's and Rob Dekker's  edited comments in regards to this disagreement with others vs. Neil T.; I rarely comment on this thread, preferring to enhance my knowledge by reading the comments and graphics (hat tip to A-Team, et al). I could be in error here, but it appears that NeilT is being unfairly singled out. Isnt there at least a little room for different points of view here?

Watching_from_Canberra

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2357 on: January 31, 2017, 08:18:31 AM »
I could be in error here, but it appears that NeilT is being unfairly singled out. Isnt there at least a little room for different points of view here?
Seconded.

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2358 on: January 31, 2017, 10:11:42 AM »
Have to agree: correlating arctic sea ice volume loss with total solar flux doesn't make any sceintific sense. Where's antarctic sea ice if this is global? Where's irradiance which surely is more relevant? where are the GHGs which surely are the most relevant?

Have to disagree: ad hominem rebuttal.

BenB

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2359 on: January 31, 2017, 10:47:42 AM »
It's easy to get (over)excited by the incredible temparature anomalies that we've been seeing on such a regular basis in the Arctic over the past couple of years, but even then temperatures generally remain well below freezing through the winter. However, genuinely balmy/barmy temperatures are forecast next week for the Barents Sea and the CAB north of Svalbard:



It will be interesting to see if that materialises and, if so, what effect it has.

JayW

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2360 on: January 31, 2017, 10:52:45 AM »
60 hour loop Jan 26-30, 2017. Focused on Banks island area.

Imagery courtesy of puffin feeder site at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks

VIIRS I05 band  Alaska is in the bottom left corner.


http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/snpp-gina-alaska-i05-images?page=3&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B14%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1
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romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2361 on: January 31, 2017, 11:32:21 AM »
Fram export remains strong, todays image vs yesterday, 25 hours difference. Warm areas: Jan 31 - Beaufort and Chuckchi; Feb 1 - Beaufort; Feb 2 - Chuckchi and ESS; Feb 3 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard area; Feb 4 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard area; Feb 5 - ESS, North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara; Feb 6 - ESS, North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara; Feb 7 - North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara, Laptev Sea. In some places (including North Pole, Svalbard, ESS) anomalies reaching again +30 Celsius (Climate Reanalyzer).
Photos from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2362 on: January 31, 2017, 11:44:48 AM »
60 hour loop Jan 26-30, 2017. Focused on Banks island area.

Imagery courtesy of puffin feeder site at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks

VIIRS I05 band  Alaska is in the bottom left corner.


http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/snpp-gina-alaska-i05-images?page=3&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B14%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1
Anticyclonic systems are affecting the Beaufort and CAB and soon enough huge openings appear near the coasts.
However this year so far we have not seen yet a real clock-wise drift, and from the visualizations shown by A-Team and others, the Beaufort Gyre, the ocean current itself, has not given signs of being active, or is extremely weakened, after so many storms since May last year.

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2363 on: January 31, 2017, 12:08:52 PM »
It's easy to get (over)excited by the incredible temparature anomalies that we've been seeing on such a regular basis

Agreed on one hand. On the other hand, the temp anomalies are imho a good indicator of what seems to be the story of this freezing season (as there is now FDD-forecast that I know of): the lack of freezing power.
Going by the forecast,  the Arctic will continue to follow 2016 closely till the second week of february (as it did til now according to Tealights chart below).
There is - imho again - a good chance that volume follows suit. anf if this doesn't change quickly, we could end up with a Piomas max somewhere around 21.000 km^3. Not cool.
But enough of my guesstimates. The january piomas numbers should give a first hint. I wouldn't be surprised though if they'll fall somewhere between 16.000 and 16.500 km^3 ("D'oh!" - another guesstimate ;D)

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2364 on: January 31, 2017, 12:22:47 PM »
Volume shouldn't be much over 14,000 km3 at the end of January. I think PIOMAS will be slightly under the numbers derived from JAXA.

Edit; After a second look, I may should say PIOMAS would possibly be a little higher than numbers from JAXA. So, maybe in the 15k km3 range.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 12:46:31 PM by Tigertown »

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2365 on: January 31, 2017, 12:31:45 PM »
Volume shouldn't be much over 14,000 km3 at the end of January. I think PIOMAS will be slightly under the numbers derived from JAXA.
Well I based my guess on Wipneus' PIOMAS chart. According to this volume at the end of December 2016 was around 13.000 km^3. A growth of just 1.000 km^3 over january would be completely unheard-of. 2016 gained around 3.000. But who knows - I definitely do not :)

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2366 on: January 31, 2017, 12:40:34 PM »
We gained it but lost some back, with one big setback. I don't know how the JAXA numbers will compare to the eventual PIOMAS outcome for this month, but figure these at least give an idea of the trend and a ballpark estimate of the final for January.
PIOMAS may end up being a little higher, instead of lower than this.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2367 on: January 31, 2017, 12:54:54 PM »
For there to be no major storm inside the CAB today, winds are all set up just right to cause problems and get rid of ice. A nice little gentle push into the deathtrap of warmth. Also,up to 105km/hr winds from north to south between Greenland and Iceland. Add to that, 65 km/hr wind going down the Nares Strait.

BenB

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2368 on: January 31, 2017, 12:55:57 PM »
On the other hand, the temp anomalies are imho a good indicator of what seems to be the story of this freezing season (as there is now FDD-forecast that I know of): the lack of freezing power.

I quite agree that FDD are important. I just wanted to emphasise that even with the exceptional temperature/FDD anomalies that we've been seeing, it's still pretty unusual to see widespread temperatures above zero in the high Arctic in winter. Nevertheless, that's what is forecast for next week. Not only a lack of "freezing power", but potentially a tiny bit of "melting power" coming from the air.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2369 on: January 31, 2017, 01:52:13 PM »
getting warmer each day, certainly not conditions to build thick ice and time's running out
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NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2370 on: January 31, 2017, 02:51:05 PM »
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume you are confused rather than a troll.  Do you realize how irrelevant the radio frequency is?  Here's a plot of energy from the sun in different wavelengths:
 

OK I logged in for one hour and I’ll bite as this does need an answer.

I’ll accept that if:

A:  You can show me a chart which _proves_ that solar flux can be higher and TSI is lower at the same time.  Thus making a nonsense of my tracking.
B: You can find me an archive which logs TSI and gives me the SI values for the wavelengths which heat the planet, not just the radio flux values.  Then I can update my values with those figures and re-draw the charts.

As the solar flux is generally driven higher by sunspot activity, it is, I assume, a reasonable approach to assume that the TSI is higher during higher solar flux events.  Otherwise why would Hansen have spent so much time calculating out that the solar minimum, measured in _both_ sunspots and flux (almost 1:1 correlation) and the CO2 levels that would overwhelm a 100 year minimum cooling from a drop in solar irradiance?

There is enough anecdotal evidence out there to prove that point without having to waste my life searching for data which just parallels what I have posted.

As far as I’m concerned SFI=Sunspot activity=TSI as a very rough correlation.  As I’m working on annual figures, not even trying to find out where TSI is higher in the melt seasons, not trying to map SFI to storms or to any other weather event, so then a rough correlation is all I need.

Another comment said about the Antarctic.

To bring the Antarctic into this is valid, I guess, given I’m talking about global impact, but then the whole argument about Antarctic is apples V oranges because you can’t talk about the Austral sea ice in the Antarctic. That would be nonsense.  You have to talk about the under shelf melting from the exceptionally warm sea currents which are destroying and destabilising the ice shelves. 

_That_ is a really BIG deal right now, if you watch these kinds of things (I do) and, potentially, a much bigger impact than what we are seeing in the Arctic in terms of climate disasters.

Anyway, as far as I’m concerned, now, this is done.  I think I’ve said all that I want to say and have nothing further to add.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2371 on: January 31, 2017, 03:06:25 PM »
NeilT.
I have have no personal animosity against you whatsoever and will not begin to question your motives. However, I think that you have picked a very controversial subject to discuss in this thread. It may not be identical in nature, but is very similar to arguments made by deniers to say global warming/climate change is not anthropogenic. Not saying that is your intention, but that as long as you continue in this thread with this discussion, you will cause further animosity to yourself.

budmantis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2372 on: January 31, 2017, 03:22:45 PM »
NeilT.
I have have no personal animosity against you whatsoever and will not begin to question your motives. However, I think that you have picked a very controversial subject to discuss in this thread. It may not be identical in nature, but is very similar to arguments made by deniers to say global warming/climate change is not anthropogenic. Not saying that is your intention, but that as long as you continue in this thread with this discussion, you will cause further animosity to yourself.

Well done TT. Getting your point across diplomatically.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2373 on: January 31, 2017, 04:11:14 PM »
The fact that deniers misrepresent warming associated with solar cycles shouldn't mean it can't be discussed. If on a science forum we can't distinguish between the data associated with anti-science, and anti-science itself, then we're in danger of doing what we accuse deniers of: substituting politics for evidence.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 04:36:10 PM by 6roucho »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2374 on: January 31, 2017, 04:17:43 PM »
Good comment, lifeblack. NeilT is totally off-topic. Again. Solar input after late August, preposterous. This cycle rubbish, recycled from his WUWT days, rebutted decades ago. Next up, ban him from the 2016/2017 season forum for distraction trolling.
you do realize that this is a general discussion thread and not a paper right

This is not a general discussion thread. This is a thread about the 2016/2017 freezing season. NeilT's contributions should be on other threads, most likely in the scientific portion of this wonderful forum.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2375 on: January 31, 2017, 04:22:29 PM »
The fact that deniers misrepresent warming associated with solar cycles shouldn't mean it can't be discussed. If on a science forum we can't distinguish between the data associated with anti-science, and anti-science itself, then we're in danger of doing what we accuse deniers of: substituting politics for evidence.

Agreed. How about discussing it on the thread thoughtfully provided for that very purpose?

Solar irradiance

Then perhaps we can get back to the 2016/2017 freezing season in here?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2376 on: January 31, 2017, 04:23:38 PM »

EDIT2 : These accusations of "WUWT days" and "cycle rubbish" against NeilT seem unfounded without references. Cut the guy some slack for alternative views, will you ?

I absolutely agree with this, however the comments are way off topic and has triggered a wave of comments that are not relevant to the freeze season. It is frustrating to wade through in order to follow the actual subject we are discussing.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2377 on: January 31, 2017, 04:27:24 PM »
The fact that deniers misrepresent warming associated with solar cycles shouldn't mean it can't be discussed. If on a science forum we can't distinguish between the data associated with anti-science, and anti-science itself, then we're in danger of doing what we accuse deniers of: substituting politics for evidence.

Agreed. How about discussing it on the thread thoughtfully provided for that very purpose?

Solar irradiance

Then perhaps we can get back to the 2016/2017 freezing season in here?
I wasn't meaning to discuss it, Jim. I was only weighing in on the personal attacks on NeilT, on this thread. But point taken.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2378 on: January 31, 2017, 04:32:37 PM »
It's easy to get (over)excited by the incredible temparature anomalies that we've been seeing on such a regular basis

Agreed on one hand. On the other hand, the temp anomalies are imho a good indicator of what seems to be the story of this freezing season (as there is now FDD-forecast that I know of): the lack of freezing power.
Going by the forecast,  the Arctic will continue to follow 2016 closely till the second week of february (as it did til now according to Tealights chart below).
There is - imho again - a good chance that volume follows suit. anf if this doesn't change quickly, we could end up with a Piomas max somewhere around 21.000 km^3. Not cool.
But enough of my guesstimates. The january piomas numbers should give a first hint. I wouldn't be surprised though if they'll fall somewhere between 16.000 and 16.500 km^3 ("D'oh!" - another guesstimate ;D)

Since it is the freezing season we are tracking, it would be great if the chart didn't reset at 0 on 1/1/2017 but continued to build on the anomaly already established during the 1st 2/3 of the season.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2379 on: January 31, 2017, 04:34:36 PM »
Fram export remains strong, todays image vs yesterday, 25 hours difference. Warm areas: Jan 31 - Beaufort and Chuckchi; Feb 1 - Beaufort; Feb 2 - Chuckchi and ESS; Feb 3 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard area; Feb 4 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard area; Feb 5 - ESS, North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara; Feb 6 - ESS, North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara; Feb 7 - North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara, Laptev Sea. In some places (including North Pole, Svalbard, ESS) anomalies reaching again +30 Celsius (Climate Reanalyzer).
Photos from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

And the ice moving towards Svalbard (and I suspect Franz Josef) continues to aggressively melt as it is pushed into the very warm salty waters.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 04:42:51 PM by Shared Humanity »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2380 on: January 31, 2017, 04:41:09 PM »
FOW do you have a link to the 94 m salinity maps of previous years?

This is HYCOM's salinity animation for the last year.  I'm really not seeing anything different about the start of 2017 compared to 2016.
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim365d.gif

The Navy's models available to the public do not show the profiles or maps of salinity at depth.  The Mercator model does, but they stopped showing the results of the earlier model version which produced slightly different interpretations.

The reason that the Mercator model is valuable is that it appears to be explaining what's happening at the ice edge this year. The poleward advancement of the ice edge on the Atlantic side is a subtle, slow process that has been going on since the strong positive AO years of the early '90s so don't expect the Navy model of surface salinity to show you much change in a year. There has been lots of natural variability since 1990 but the Barents sea has slowly but surely become more like the north Atlantic. Now we are seeing the effects of Atlantic water north of FJI in midwinter.

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2381 on: January 31, 2017, 04:43:36 PM »
Since it is the freezing season we are tracking, it would be great if the chart didn't reset at 0 on 1/1/2017 but continued to build on the anomaly already established during the 1st 2/3 of the season.

That's what this one is for, right?

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2382 on: January 31, 2017, 04:51:52 PM »
I wasn't meaning to discuss it, Jim. I was only weighing in on the personal attacks on NeilT, on this thread. But point taken.

My "point" wasn't aimed at you 6roucho. My apologies if it came across that way.

The "it" I was referring to was "warming associated with solar cycles".

My "agreed" was in reference to "the personal attacks on NeilT".

Does anybody have any further thoughts on learned journal articles concerning "Warm Atlantic Water"?
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2383 on: January 31, 2017, 04:54:40 PM »
I do feel that the loading of the troposphere with water vapour is a direct result of S.I. , as NeilT points out. The 'Global Brightening' we are seeing from China's efforts to clean up its act is impacting the tropical Pacific and I think is a big part of our water vapour issues that are heating the Basin over winter?Let's not forget that the 'dimming' ( which is now 'healing') helped drive the faux pause in warming and the deniers made hay whilst that was ongoing so 'outing' the role of aerosol / particulate on warming is important. It may well mean 2017 will give 2016 a run for its money and rob 2015 of its place as second warmest.

Heat , to me , equals energy and that energy heads to the cold. Sun over the equatorial regions  is important in freezing season. It is what is driving the FDD deficit and what drives the winds.

NeilT is not causing harm but being brave enough to put forward his views and debate them. Let's not try and trump him eh?
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2384 on: January 31, 2017, 04:56:46 PM »
If CO2 is still as dominant today in a more moist Arctic, I don't know. But I guess these changes would qualify more as a feedback than a forcing?

both.

the difference in downwelling radiation in the Arctic between cold/clear/dry atmosphere of ~1.5 kg/m^2 total precipitable water and -30C surface temperature and that of ~10kg/m^2 and -4C is truly massive.

see:
http://www.colorado.edu/geography/class_homepages/geog_4271_f11/lectures/week_2.pdf

Quote
Seasonal cycle of top of atmosphere radiation
budget components for the polar cap from ERA-
40 data. Components are the net shortwave
radiation (SWtop) net longwave radiation (LWtop)
and net total radiation (Rtop).

Values of Rtop
January -175 W m-2
April -88 W m-2
July +11 W m-2
November -184 M m-2
Annual -110 W m-2

The difference in surface flux is on the order of -50 watts per meter squared.  To reduce this significantly with warm/moist water vapor intrusions on a regular basis in the winter is to fundamentally change the global energy heat balance.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 06:10:48 PM by jai mitchell »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2385 on: January 31, 2017, 05:01:05 PM »
On the other hand, the temp anomalies are imho a good indicator of what seems to be the story of this freezing season (as there is now FDD-forecast that I know of): the lack of freezing power.

I quite agree that FDD are important. I just wanted to emphasise that even with the exceptional temperature/FDD anomalies that we've been seeing, it's still pretty unusual to see widespread temperatures above zero in the high Arctic in winter. Nevertheless, that's what is forecast for next week. Not only a lack of "freezing power", but potentially a tiny bit of "melting power" coming from the air.

I think he was reacting to the 'It's easy to get overexcited' remark.

With regards to being overexcited, there is an established trend of increasingly warm Arctic winters that goes back a couple of decades with the frequency and intensity becoming quite pronounced since 2005. This freeze season is the worst yet and I believe our focus on this as a significant feature of this freeze season is quite proper. For me, I love the input as to why this is occurring. (Please more, please) When I see what appears to be a 2 decade trend of warming polar winters that is tracking quite nicely with the destruction of the ice, it is, in my opinion, something to get excited about.

Is it cause or effect?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2386 on: January 31, 2017, 05:04:05 PM »
Since it is the freezing season we are tracking, it would be great if the chart didn't reset at 0 on 1/1/2017 but continued to build on the anomaly already established during the 1st 2/3 of the season.

That's what this one is for, right?



Thank you, Neven.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2387 on: January 31, 2017, 05:11:14 PM »
I would like to acknowledge that there is a compelling reason why off topic comments land in this thread during the winter. Many of the other threads are relatively dormant and it is difficult to resist posting something. I would only ask that we post these in the relevant threads and current comments will tend to draw others to those threads.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2388 on: January 31, 2017, 05:17:49 PM »
NeilT is not causing harm but being brave enough to put forward his views and debate them. Let's not try and trump him eh?

I agree, but it quickly turns off-topic, so like SH said:

I would like to acknowledge that there is a compelling reason why off topic comments land in this thread during the winter. Many of the other threads are relatively dormant and it is difficult to resist posting something. I would only ask that we post these in the relevant threads and current comments will tend to draw others to those threads.

It's a big forum, folks.  :)
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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2389 on: January 31, 2017, 05:24:24 PM »
Thank you, Neven.
+1
Just putting the link to Tealight's site here as I keep misplacing it.
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/degree-days-freezing
The anomaly chart from Sep 1 is THE chart for this freezing season. Wish there was a direct link just to it.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2390 on: January 31, 2017, 05:32:58 PM »
Normally a work day for me but, just like the planet, I have a fever. My fever should break in a day or so, however.   :-\

DoomInTheUK

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2391 on: January 31, 2017, 05:52:09 PM »
Well as an indicator that something fundamental has changed I notice that previous freeze season threads have struggled to get to 15 pages of comments and this year we're closing in on 50.

Probably not worth making a graph of though.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2392 on: January 31, 2017, 05:59:30 PM »
I imagine this will be the quietest part of the re-freeze season as we must be as closest to 'normal' Arctic temps as we can get now prior to the spring warm up?

I am surprised we have not seen a fragmentation event across Beaufort so far this year? Is this due to weather or is the ice now so 'giving' ( not brittle) that it plasticaly  deforms under forcing?
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2393 on: January 31, 2017, 06:01:08 PM »
as to missing posts or the fear that a post one finds noteworthy could get lost because a thread is quite inactive, i recommend that everyone would use the great features the forum is providing like this link:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=unread

it's on top of every page and one does never have to sift through subforums to find posts that have been posted across the entire forum since last visit.

i know this is OT but the issue came up on this thread hence the workaround belongs here IMO

Whoever wants to use his/her browser to capacity can open each link in a separate tab in the back ground and then read through each page and close it.

on OSX that would be "command+click" jointly with the correct browser settings under "Tabs"
and "command+w" to close the window after reaching the end and automatically reach the next tab
open as explained above. the setting in Safari under "Tabs" should be this way to get the most out of it.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2394 on: January 31, 2017, 06:11:29 PM »
I imagine this will be the quietest part of the re-freeze season as we must be as closest to 'normal' Arctic temps as we can get now prior to the spring warm up?

I am surprised we have not seen a fragmentation event across Beaufort so far this year? Is this due to weather or is the ice now so 'giving' ( not brittle) that it plasticaly  deforms under forcing?
(amused sad but friendly laughter) we are not seeing it because there is no structure to shatter. I'll dig up images, but it's  almost totally FYI,  and only about 3/4 (I'm probably being generous) the thickness it needs to be.
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2395 on: January 31, 2017, 06:22:22 PM »
Yes, it would be nice if the dmi-graphs were centered on winter. Summers at +2m ASL can't rise very high as long as there's ice to melt. Cut and overlaid 2015-16 and 2016-17 winters, but as Neven said the FDD shows quite a deviation. Not that it does not show on this too.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2396 on: January 31, 2017, 06:24:33 PM »
Well, this is long-term forecast for Svalbard Airport (Yr.no). Just to remind, normal for February is -16.2 Celsius.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2397 on: January 31, 2017, 06:37:26 PM »
If anyone knows how to make this video as research scientist Chelsea Thompson put up on twitter showing the sea ice situation from an air plane close to Barrow yesterday it would be amazing! According to Thompson, there was almost no sea ice there! The videos are excellent! A second video from this area is also linked in this post!!

https://twitter.com/ArcticAirDoctor/status/826232378095915009

https://twitter.com/ArcticAirDoctor/status/826252786065043456

Best, LMV

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2398 on: January 31, 2017, 06:42:02 PM »
Yes, it would be nice if the dmi-graphs were centered on winter. Summers at +2m ASL can't rise very high as long as there's ice to melt. Cut and overlaid 2015-16 and 2016-17 winters, but as Neven said the FDD shows quite a deviation. Not that it does not show on this too.
Kinda says it all....we are not in Kansas anymore.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2399 on: January 31, 2017, 06:44:06 PM »
Well...I thought I found exactly what I wanted to know...until I realized they cut off exactly the regions we care about.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/bTPW/TPW_Animation.html?product=GLOBAL_PCT