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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2250 on: January 28, 2017, 02:22:21 AM »
Another day or two is needed to confirm the bizarre waves of disintegration of sea ice concentration being imaged. The whole front appears to be eroding poleward.

There's a zone of deep mixing north of FJI indicated by sea surface height data and Mercator model calculated salinity. The melting is apparently caused by mixing of incoming Atlantic waters.

The kill zone for sea ice on the Atlantic side appears to be advancing poleward because the warm Atlantic water is penetrating closer to the pole in the top 300 meters.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2251 on: January 28, 2017, 05:14:14 AM »
Can anyone get a good image(from today) of the ESS, please? Would very much appreciate.

Trying to get a better view of this. It seems to be new today, as I can't find any sign of it before today.


slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2252 on: January 28, 2017, 05:18:52 AM »
FOOW,

   Thanks for the sea surface height and surface salinity plots.

   Are they as extraordinary as they seem to an amateur such as me?  For example, the surface salinity just North of Severnaya Zemlya is not much less than that of the bulk Atlantic Ocean! The orange region extends to about the North Pole.

   Is that reliable? (Where does it come from? Is it e.g. derived from satellite measurements of sea surface height plus interpolating between buoy readings?)

   Presuming it's reliable, how anomalous is that for this time of year?

   Is it fair to say that the usual thermohaline depth structure must have largely broken down in the reddish (and, less so, orange) regions within the Arctic Basin proper? And, consequently, that any warmer Atlantic water transported into those regions is now more likely to mix from the storm churn than it is to sink due to any greater salinity and hence density? If so then is it reasonable to assume that any heat transported into those regions from the Atlantic currents from now on will largely be available to melt the sea ice where in past years it would not have been?

   And, as you have indicated, the high salinity regions appear to correlate with regions of sea ice damage as pointed out and plotted by A-Team.

   I have no expertise or background knowledge in this area but these plots appear to me like they could be important. Perhaps could you and others please give some more expert interpretation of these plots and what they mean for the Arctic sea ice? Thanks.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 05:39:11 AM by slow wing »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2253 on: January 28, 2017, 06:00:34 AM »
FOOW,

   Thanks for the sea surface height and surface salinity plots.

   Are they as extraordinary as they seem to an amateur such as me?  For example, the surface salinity just North of Severnaya Zemlya is not much less than that of the bulk Atlantic Ocean! The orange region extends to about the North Pole.

   Is that reliable? (Where does it come from? Is it e.g. derived from satellite measurements of sea surface height plus interpolating between buoy readings?)
Anomalous and potentially game changing.  I note the similar correspondence between high salinity areas and weaker ice.  Finding a correlation would be interesting.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2254 on: January 28, 2017, 06:01:44 AM »
First image- the front between FJL and the NP
Second image- update of ESS
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2255 on: January 28, 2017, 06:35:23 AM »
{edited for space}
This imply that the warmth of Arctic is partly endogenous, and that Arctic is able to sustain itself trough the darkness of the polar night.
 
As one guy (I don't remember who ^^" ) said, Arctic is becoming an Ocean. More and more, humidity and clouds and CO2 are insulating the Arctic, to the point that we are now almost at the point where no matter how cold it is in free atmosphere, the open Ocean will help with a heavy coat. Of course, for the theoretical/universitary remark, it is probably not a tipping point in the sense that if we could cool enough Arctic, sea ice will probably recover. It is more like an hysteresis, to be precise with words. But in the end, Co2 building up and temperatures soaring, this is more or less equivalent to a "no comeback from here and onwards".
Surface concentrations of CO2 in the Arctic around July 1st of last year were around 400 ppm +/- and now run about 420* ppm +/-. That does not give a large percentage of increase, but makes me wonder if between that and H2O vapor increase, some threshold was reached at some unknown point, and the amount of energy allowed to escape the surface was drastically reduced.

*I subtracted 32 ppm from current Earth NS values to allow for the 32 ppm they added, which is what was believed to have caused a jump on the 23rd of this month. The only increases I am considering are the ones that occurred gradually.
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epiphyte

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2256 on: January 28, 2017, 08:55:48 AM »
We all have equally small dicks.

... at least until it gets above freezing, dude :)

Also it may be appropriate to mention that it is not necessary to have any sort of dick whatsoever in order to be a valued member of this community?(!)

No more concern trolling, no more gloating. Thanks.

Hear, here on that one.





6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2257 on: January 28, 2017, 09:19:32 AM »
{edited for space}
This imply that the warmth of Arctic is partly endogenous, and that Arctic is able to sustain itself trough the darkness of the polar night.
 
As one guy (I don't remember who ^^" ) said, Arctic is becoming an Ocean. More and more, humidity and clouds and CO2 are insulating the Arctic, to the point that we are now almost at the point where no matter how cold it is in free atmosphere, the open Ocean will help with a heavy coat. Of course, for the theoretical/universitary remark, it is probably not a tipping point in the sense that if we could cool enough Arctic, sea ice will probably recover. It is more like an hysteresis, to be precise with words. But in the end, Co2 building up and temperatures soaring, this is more or less equivalent to a "no comeback from here and onwards".
Surface concentrations of CO2 in the Arctic around July 1st of last year were around 400 ppm +/- and now run about 420* ppm +/-. That does not give a large percentage of increase, but makes me wonder if between that and H2O vapor increase, some threshold was reached at some unknown point, and the amount of energy allowed to escape the surface was drastically reduced.

*I subtracted 32 ppm from current Earth NS values to allow for the 32 ppm they added, which is what was believed to have caused a jump on the 23rd of this month. The only increases I am considering are the ones that occurred gradually.
Surely the short-term forcing from 30ppm of C02 is minimal? It's the cumulative effect over time that provides measurable warming, e.g. since 1975, roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade. Perhaps the high C02 levels are an effect of the increased temperatures? Or am I misunderstanding the point being made? If there's a threshold effect where increased C02 concentrations can cause significant local warming then it's goodnight Vienna.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 03:46:02 PM by 6roucho »

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2258 on: January 28, 2017, 12:26:02 PM »
Comment from a new member (your profile is released now, Vice grip, and welcome):

Can anyone get a good image(from today) of the ESS, please? Would very much appreciate.

Trying to get a better view of this. It seems to be new today, as I can't find any sign of it before today.

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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2259 on: January 28, 2017, 01:28:40 PM »
Quote
Jai: wind driven events as a result of the stationary low...Perhaps fracture are giving us a good indication of where the more solid pack is (and isn't). #2243 etc
Right. Cyclone seems to have peeled off layers out beyond 85ºN. There is no indication that the event has wrapped up as of Jan 27th. It's too soon to say whether this odd event has a broader significance, such as poleward retreat of the Svalbard-FJI-SZ front which Hycom does not foresee. It's fair to say though there's way too much mid-range sea ice concentration (blueish) in the area for the date.

The animations show very high resolution Sentinel-1AB ice pictures (so weird) over UH AMSR2 sea ice concentration, then the month of AMSR2 sea ice concentration (and its inversion) alone, and then GFS nullschool for the peak low on the 25th along with the preliminary SMOS ice thinness from the 27th that is just now catching the event. ADS-Jaxa thickness is not imaging developments at sufficient resolution.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 01:41:11 PM by A-Team »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2260 on: January 28, 2017, 01:31:52 PM »
Can anyone get a good image (from today) of the ESS, please?

The feature you highlight doesn't seem to be apparent on AMSR2:
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2261 on: January 28, 2017, 01:43:24 PM »
But if you look at brightness temperature instead:

http://go.nasa.gov/2kxpdRU

and then Sentinel 1:

http://www.polarview.aq/arctic
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 01:50:59 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2262 on: January 28, 2017, 01:57:11 PM »
Quote
continuation of FJI fabric rent #2243
Hycom did not catch the event and is instead forecasting a startling sag to the south and much Fram export,  from the 25th to 03 Feb 2017. (Maybe so but from time to time the hycom modeling process develops into an unfamiliar parallel universe.) Smos thinness is often at odds with Hycom thickness, 01-27 Jan below.

FOOW provided two important indicators of game-over Atlantic Water mixing in #2251; the salinity in the FJI region is shown enlarged and contoured below. This is quite consistent with what we are seeing from surface satellite imagery.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 02:26:42 PM by A-Team »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2263 on: January 28, 2017, 02:00:49 PM »
Smos thinness is often at odds with Hycom thickness.

SMOS on the "thin ice" in the ESS (and elsewhere):

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#SMOS
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2264 on: January 28, 2017, 02:34:01 PM »
Quote
SMOS on the "thin ice" in the ESS
SMOS is a good one to look at this time of year. Sometimes thin ice will flash in and out with no certain bottom line but when it is steady for  weeks on end (like in the central Beaufort) or shows a clean progression like the last week here in the ESS, it is probably showing accurately what is going on.

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/smos/png/20170127_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png tweak date as needed

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/databrowser.html#tab=tabs-browser&day=25&month=0&year=2017&img={"image":"image-1","sensor":"SMOS","color":true,"region":"Arctic"}

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2265 on: January 28, 2017, 02:50:43 PM »
ongoing high temps where it may have an impact sooner or later :-)

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg100690.html#msg100690

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2266 on: January 28, 2017, 05:31:33 PM »
I'm also watching those cracks. These are 300 - 500 km long (for comparison created a 1,200 km line from Greenland to FJL). There is strong drift towards FJL and Svalbard for next 7 days, so expect cracks to widen as Fram export is also strong. Also all days show elevated Arctic temp anomaly - lowest +4.2 and highest +5.5 (Climate Reanalyzer) until Feb 5. Photo from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2267 on: January 28, 2017, 05:44:08 PM »
Thanks everyone for the imagery and discussion.

So, we have one low pressure system after another spinning out of the Atlantic/Barents and into the Arctic. These storms serve to keep a large area of the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard and FJI relatively ice free by driving it towards the pole while the waves over these open waters serve to mix the warmer, saltier waters that would normally dive deep into the ocean with the less salty cold waters on the surface. Those images and animations suggest to me that the ice edge north of Svalbard and FJI is still seeing ongoing, significant melt as a result of the warmer saltier water.

Question: Since this disruption of the halocline we are seeing is weather driven, does this mean that we are seeing a process this year that would not necessarily repeat next year barring a similar cyclone cannon setting up? In other words, can we expect to see the fresh water lens reestablish itself during the next freeze season and more normal behavior of the ice on the Atlantic side? What we are watching could simply be indicative of an Arctic that is more susceptible to the vagaries of weather as it is more fragmented, thin and mobile but next freeze season our attention might be drawn to another sector of the Arctic due to a highly anomalous behavior of ice as it is battered by newly stormy Arctic winters.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2268 on: January 28, 2017, 06:11:11 PM »
Quote
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
FJI may refer to:
    Fellow of the Institute of Journalists
    Fiji
    Fiji Airways
    Florida Justice Institute
I know from our Glossary that FJL is "Franz Josef Land, a group of islands to the east of Svalbard".

I've seen FJI several times in this thread; is it a typo for FJL?

Later Edit: use FJL,  per Neven's  Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« Reply #69 on: Today at 12:07:49 PM »
« Last Edit: January 29, 2017, 08:36:41 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2269 on: January 28, 2017, 06:44:23 PM »
Quote
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
FJI may refer to:
    Fellow of the Institute of Journalists
    Fiji
    Fiji Airways
    Florida Justice Institute
I know from our Glossary that FJL is "Franz Josef Land, a group of islands to the east of Svalbard".

I've seen FJI several times in this thread; is it a typo for FJL?

Likely the Land is called Franz Josef Islands in some language.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2270 on: January 28, 2017, 07:01:32 PM »

I know from our Glossary that FJL is "Franz Josef Land, a group of islands to the east of Svalbard".

I've seen FJI several times in this thread; is it a typo for FJL?
The official name is Franz Josef Land but it consists of Islands. Not a bad place on the eyes either.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2271 on: January 28, 2017, 07:12:59 PM »


Question: Since this disruption of the halocline we are seeing is weather driven, does this mean that we are seeing a process this year that would not necessarily repeat next year barring a similar cyclone cannon setting up? In other words, can we expect to see the fresh water lens reestablish itself during the next freeze season and more normal behavior of the ice on the Atlantic side? What we are watching could simply be indicative of an Arctic that is more susceptible to the vagaries of weather as it is more fragmented, thin and mobile but next freeze season our attention might be drawn to another sector of the Arctic due to a highly anomalous behavior of ice as it is battered by newly stormy Arctic winters.

To my best knowledge the Arctic Ocean was unique in having a very thick 'Halocline'? I think it is part physical geography and part hangover from the last ice age. As such if it becomes disrupted I feel the basin will move toward the kind of Ocean processes we see in all other Oceans?
For me once the Halocline is gone then it's gone!
If it did take a thick, year round,  ice age covering of ice to provide the still needed to produce such an extensive layer then this new 'Dynamic' Ocean will not suit!

The big waves off Hawaii can reach down 200m in their impacts. An open basin with a long fetch and plenty of wind from L.P.'s crashing into the basin and the upper reaches of the ocean get well mixed, eventually that 'mixed layer' will allow for changes to the operation of the currents that had a relationship with the Halocline and its make up of cold and salt properties.
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2272 on: January 28, 2017, 07:15:44 PM »
Thanks everyone for the imagery and discussion.

Question: Since this disruption of the halocline we are seeing is weather driven, does this mean that we are seeing a process this year that would not necessarily repeat next year barring a similar cyclone cannon setting up? In other words, can we expect to see the fresh water lens reestablish itself during the next freeze season and more normal behavior of the ice on the Atlantic side? What we are watching could simply be indicative of an Arctic that is more susceptible to the vagaries of weather as it is more fragmented, thin and mobile but next freeze season our attention might be drawn to another sector of the Arctic due to a highly anomalous behavior of ice as it is battered by newly stormy Arctic winters.

I think its the melting ice replenishes the halocline. Freezing creates saline water that mixes the top layer (100m or so). The thinner younger ice is less effective at replenishing the halocline as it is; 1) more salty and 2) there is less of it.

Less ice means a weaker halocline that means more mixing of warmer water from depth which means less ice.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2273 on: January 28, 2017, 07:47:14 PM »
Question: Since this disruption of the halocline we are seeing is weather driven, does this mean that we are seeing a process this year that would not necessarily repeat next year barring a similar cyclone cannon setting up? In other words, can we expect to see the fresh water lens reestablish itself during the next freeze season and more normal behavior of the ice on the Atlantic side? What we are watching could simply be indicative of an Arctic that is more susceptible to the vagaries of weather as it is more fragmented, thin and mobile but next freeze season our attention might be drawn to another sector of the Arctic due to a highly anomalous behavior of ice as it is battered by newly stormy Arctic winters.

I think that aside a couple of very good answers already provided, that the weather is driven by the lack of solid ice, and therefore it is the ocean in basic control here.


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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2274 on: January 28, 2017, 08:00:28 PM »
Thanks everyone for the imagery and discussion.

Question: Since this disruption of the halocline we are seeing is weather driven, does this mean that we are seeing a process this year that would not necessarily repeat next year barring a similar cyclone cannon setting up? In other words, can we expect to see the fresh water lens reestablish itself during the next freeze season and more normal behavior of the ice on the Atlantic side? What we are watching could simply be indicative of an Arctic that is more susceptible to the vagaries of weather as it is more fragmented, thin and mobile but next freeze season our attention might be drawn to another sector of the Arctic due to a highly anomalous behavior of ice as it is battered by newly stormy Arctic winters.

I think its the melting ice replenishes the halocline. Freezing creates saline water that mixes the top layer (100m or so). The thinner younger ice is less effective at replenishing the halocline as it is; 1) more salty and 2) there is less of it.

Less ice means a weaker halocline that means more mixing of warmer water from depth which means less ice.

It seems to be a cycle in which the salinity starts to go back up at the end of melt season and continues to do so until the end of freezing season. It has done so in the past, but the waves that are persisting this year are putting the warm salty water to work.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2275 on: January 28, 2017, 08:03:05 PM »
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2264 on: Today at 02:00:49 PM »

    Quote

: A-Team  Today at 01:57:11 PM

   
SMOS on the "thin ice" in the ESS (and elsewhere):

What is happening in the Beaufort also appears to be quite dynamic as the radar observations (see last 10  day recording) in Utqiaġvik (Barrow) show - presumably also a reflection of the fragility of the ice there.

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_radar




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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2276 on: January 28, 2017, 08:09:59 PM »
Quote
So, we have one low pressure system after another spinning out of the Atlantic/Barents and into the Arctic. Since this disruption of the halocline we are seeing is weather driven, does this mean that we are seeing a process this year that would not necessarily repeat next year barring a similar cyclone cannon setting up?
My sense is that, in addition to all the other interconnected things going down in the Arctic, the weather pattern that scientists have been writing about since 2011 or so that brings up frequent extra-tropical warmth and moisture in fall and winter is the new normal, a synoptic change in planetary heat re-distribution at least for the Atlantic Basin, another nail in the coffin that didn't need any more nails.

If so, it will be very difficult to mitigate.

If the main significance of Arctic Ocean ice is reflection of solar radiation back out to space (refrigeration), then the planetary heat budget is due for a serious jolt -- soon -- from its effective disappearance. My interests are shifting to what happens next: runaway or staged warming. There are quite a few papers on the latter, from the same folks that brought you not-to-worry until 2100.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2017, 12:29:15 AM by A-Team »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2277 on: January 28, 2017, 09:52:08 PM »

Question: Since this disruption of the halocline we are seeing is weather driven, does this mean that we are seeing a process this year that would not necessarily repeat next year barring a similar cyclone cannon setting up? In other words, can we expect to see the fresh water lens reestablish itself during the next freeze season and more normal behavior of the ice on the Atlantic side? What we are watching could simply be indicative of an Arctic that is more susceptible to the vagaries of weather as it is more fragmented, thin and mobile but next freeze season our attention might be drawn to another sector of the Arctic due to a highly anomalous behavior of ice as it is battered by newly stormy Arctic winters.

I believe that we are seeing an expansion of extropical water vapor in pulses to mid latitude and beyond that are a result of decreasing anthropogenic aerosols that have previously worked to rain out water vapor at the expansion boundaries of the ITCZ and beyond.  In addition, the reduction of upper tropospheric cooling that is well documented but currently very poorly quantified in the models, especially at regional locations in the west Pacific and Gulf of Mexico regions is allowing for stronger Rossby waves and increased intrusion into the arctic as the Geopotential Height Gradient becomes significant reduced at this altitude.

We are also seeing a general increase in expansions of the Hadley Cell and a subsequent reduction in the Ferrel and Arctic Cell geometries. 

I believe that the rapid reduction of sulphate aerosol emissions as a result of rapid implementation of scrubbers in high-temperature  Coal burning process (power gen and industrial activities) is going to rapidly increase this effect next year.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2278 on: January 28, 2017, 11:14:28 PM »
Quote
So, we have one low pressure system after another spinning out of the Atlantic/Barents and into the Arctic. Since this disruption of the halocline we are seeing is weather driven, does this mean that we are seeing a process this year that would not necessarily repeat next year barring a similar cyclone cannon setting up?
My sense is that, in addition to all the other interconnected going down in the Arctic, the weather pattern that scientists have been writing about since 2011 or so that brings up frequent extra-tropical warmth and moisture in fall and winter is the new normal, a synoptic change in planetary heat re-distribution at least for the Atlantic Basin, another nail in the coffin that didn't need any more nails.

If so, it will be very difficult to mitigate.

It will be exceptionally hard to mitigate, especially when you factor in the point Rox raises in #2273 - less ice at the end of the refreeze means less ice to melt and reinvigorate the halocline.  That could be mitigated somewhat by increased fresh water flow from river outflow driven by increased precipitation and snow melt, but I don't think it will be enough.

More open water *also* means more evaporation which will tend to increase salinity where that moisture gets taken out of the basin.  So many feedbacks...

Quote
If the main significance of Arctic Ocean ice is reflection of solar radiation back out to space (refrigeration), then the planetary heat budget is due for a serious jolt -- soon -- from its effective disappearance. My interests are shifting to what happens next: runaway or staged warming. There are quite a few papers on the latter, from the same folks that brought you not-to-worry until 2100.
I should visit those again.  Frankly, I'm betting on a "runaway" to a new state.  What I think we are seeing now is that new state breaking out of hysteresis.  As you suggest, the monstrous change we are about to see in the Arctic/World-wide energy budget due to decreased Arctic summer albedo will accellerate this and lock the new state in place.

An awful lot of places are about to see their climate transform in what amounts to a geologic nanosecond and not in good ways; namely, an awful lot of people are going to be wondering where their rain has gone.  Most of the rest will be wondering how the hell they will cope with all the extra water.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2279 on: January 28, 2017, 11:18:06 PM »
Fresh water from rivers cannot spread over the whole arctic to reinvigorate the halocline once ice is gone....

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2280 on: January 28, 2017, 11:41:27 PM »
Thanks everyone for all of the responses.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2281 on: January 29, 2017, 12:05:33 AM »
jdallen
Quote
Frankly, I'm betting on a "runaway" to a new state.  What I think we are seeing now is that new state breaking out of hysteresis.  As you suggest, the monstrous change we are about to see in the Arctic/World-wide energy budget due to decreased Arctic summer albedo will accellerate this and lock the new state in place.

An awful lot of places are about to see their climate transform in what amounts to a geologic nanosecond and not in good ways; namely, an awful lot of people are going to be wondering where their rain has gone.  Most of the rest will be wondering how the hell they will cope with all the extra water.
AND HOW! I think the key thing to watch now is how quickly the ice melts out this coming season. If it happens early enough in the year, very serious problems will happen all over the world. If the melt season goes slower than that, the cumulative effects will make the following winter worse than now, followed by a fast melt out in 2018, and then the real show will begin. We won't have to wait long to find out which will be. Steps? Yeah, right; More like a step or maybe two.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2282 on: January 29, 2017, 01:16:30 AM »
I've been looking at the Mercator Ocean model results for over 5 years. They have made multiple upgrades in the model over the years. This version appears to be consistent with evidence available from other kinds of observations. It may be a little better than the last version.

Like PIOMAS it assimilates available data into the model. If there are fewer buoys in the Arctic the model will have less data to assimilate and may be less reliable than when there's a larger fleet of buoys.

The warm salty water started building up off of New England about 4 to 5 years ago. Research reports I have read, but can't cite, indicate it takes a minimum of 2 years for a surge to move from the western North Atlantic to the Barents sea. The El Niño caused a surge of high sea surface heights in the north Atlantic, while very low SSH's were located in the Labrador and Greenland seas. The intense gradient sped up the transport of the warm salty towards the Arctic.

 I suspect we're seeing the impacts of that warm salty water north of FJI now.

The Mercator model indicates that the high salinity is continuous to the Atlantic water layer at 300 m and deeper.

FYI I've been tracking global SSTs and ocean heat since 1980. I try to forecast hurricanes and surf.




DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2283 on: January 29, 2017, 01:53:42 AM »
FOW do you have a link to the 94 m salinity maps of previous years?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2284 on: January 29, 2017, 02:09:49 AM »
January 14-28  VIIRS I05 band

All imagery from the puffin feeder site at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/snpp-gina-alaska-i05-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B14%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2285 on: January 29, 2017, 02:56:19 AM »
From the National Weather Service in Anchorage.

Quote
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1040 AM AKST THURSDAY 26 JANUARY 2017

...JANUARY 2017 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...SEVERAL STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA THIS WINTER...AND
HAVE DESTROYED A LARGE AREA OF SEA ICE EACH TIME. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ICE FREE AREAS
OF THE BERING SEA. THEREFORE THE EXISTING SEA ICE IS THINNER THAN
USUAL THROUGHOUT THE BERING SEA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA.
AS OF JANUARY 25TH...THE ICE EDGE STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY 75 NM SOUTH
OF GAMBELL TO 45 NM SOUTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
http://www.weather.gov/afc/ice
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2286 on: January 29, 2017, 02:53:37 PM »
This ice pack has more holes than a swiss cheese.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2287 on: January 29, 2017, 02:58:44 PM »
Quote
This ice pack has more holes than a swiss cheese.
It might be feasible to make a daily thickness map from 0.5m to 1.0m to complement the 0.0m to 0.5m of SMOS; that would likely be an eye-opener. However, most of these maps are just heuristic and do not accurately or consistently display real ice thickness, especially in the lower bins.

Just a followup from yesterday on the poleward region poleward of Barents-FJl. The first animation differences successive daily ice thickness for this month from ADS-Jaxa. White areas indicate no change. The second animation just compares the 1st of Jan to the 28th -- very little gain in thickness can be seen, ie most of the differenced scene (3rd frame) is whitish.

There is very little ice thicker than 2m left; color binning on the Feb 03 Hycom forecast gives 14.4%.

The third animation looks at bulk ice pack motion, notably export out the Fram. The pink in the lower half tracks a particular thickness class over the 28 days of January as a guide to help track motion. This also shows very little thickness gain has occurred on the Atlantic side of the north pole.

The fourth animation compares an infrared image from today with the AMSR2 sea ice concentration from yesterday; the cleavages show up in both. The Hycom forecast out to Feb 4th is run as an inset.

It is not clear why this pattern should emerge from recent wind direction and Transpolar Drift water currents. We're much more familiar with brittle fracture arcing, which this does not resemble in the slightest (see Sentinel and SMOS images above). There is no exposed open water but definitely thinning. Shearing, due to differential motion, might be responsible but doesn't have notable visual support, ditto vorticity.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2017, 03:56:47 PM by A-Team »

Martin Gisser

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2288 on: January 29, 2017, 03:56:44 PM »
If the main significance of Arctic Ocean ice is reflection of solar radiation back out to space (refrigeration), then the planetary heat budget is due for a serious jolt -- soon -- from its effective disappearance. My interests are shifting to what happens next: runaway or staged warming. There are quite a few papers on the latter, from the same folks that brought you not-to-worry until 2100.
Solar radiation reflection seems not seriously significant directly. Michael Tobis wrote:
Quote
The fraction of solar input impinging on the Arctic is very small compared to the whole earth. The area of Arctic ice is, depending on the season, as much as 8,000,000 square kilometers, and the area of the earth is 510,000,000, so even if the Arctic got its fair share and it went from white to black year round that would cap its contribution at less than 1.5%; however, it only gets sunshine for half the year, and most of that time the sea ice is extensive. There is a worry that September sea ice will go away but no such worry about March sea ice. So we are really talking about July and August, so that’s about a sixth of the year. And then the low sun angle will multiply that by about sin(15 degrees) so together a factor of about 24; throw in another factor of 2 because oblique incidence on water is reflective, and we are talking a radiative fraction of .015/50 = .0003, or about a tenth of a watt per square meter.

Verdict: TOO SMALL
http://planet3.org/2014/03/13/mcphersons-evidence-that-doom-doom-doom/

But then, what about the ocean-atmosphere interaction...?

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2289 on: January 29, 2017, 04:06:35 PM »
Solar radiation reflection seems not seriously significant directly. Michael Tobis wrote:
Quote
The fraction of solar input impinging on the Arctic is very small compared to the whole earth. The area of Arctic ice is, depending on the season, as much as 8,000,000 square kilometers, and the area of the earth is 510,000,000, so even if the Arctic got its fair share and it went from white to black year round that would cap its contribution at less than 1.5%; however, it only gets sunshine for half the year, and most of that time the sea ice is extensive. There is a worry that September sea ice will go away but no such worry about March sea ice. So we are really talking about July and August, so that’s about a sixth of the year. And then the low sun angle will multiply that by about sin(15 degrees) so together a factor of about 24; throw in another factor of 2 because oblique incidence on water is reflective, and we are talking a radiative fraction of .015/50 = .0003, or about a tenth of a watt per square meter.

Verdict: TOO SMALL
I didn't dive into the numbers, but surely what matters is the anomaly or change from normal, and not the absolute value, as the earth was in quasi-balance before AGW.
If Arctic sea ice area is 1-2 million km2 smaller on average than it was 40 years ago during the insolation season, the difference is surely important. Tealight has made the calculations of albedo-warming potential, and I believe the result was more significant than implied here.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2290 on: January 29, 2017, 04:19:46 PM »
It is far larger than the article tries to make out!

Thermal impacts of 'ice loss' radiate out up to 1,500 km ( and obviously the same for ice cover!) So things like the loss of 'snow patches' in Far North Canada/Alaska is only possible under low ice forcings. The same is true for Permafrost instability, whilst ice cover spread its icy claw into the surrounding lands the permafrost was safe ( and it cargo of GHG's). The 'elephant' in this room is the loss of snow cover , early in spring, from the northern land masses ( from the turn of the century) and the same 'thermal impact' that sea ice loss has on the surrounding lands.

We would not look at the Arctic basin as the global 'air conditioner' were its impacts as minimal as the above post seems to demand?
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2291 on: January 29, 2017, 04:32:39 PM »
Solar radiation reflection seems not seriously significant directly. Michael Tobis wrote:
Quote
The fraction of solar input impinging on the Arctic is very small compared to the whole earth. The area of Arctic ice is, depending on the season, as much as 8,000,000 square kilometers, and the area of the earth is 510,000,000, so even if the Arctic got its fair share and it went from white to black year round that would cap its contribution at less than 1.5%; however, it only gets sunshine for half the year, and most of that time the sea ice is extensive. There is a worry that September sea ice will go away but no such worry about March sea ice. So we are really talking about July and August, so that’s about a sixth of the year. And then the low sun angle will multiply that by about sin(15 degrees) so together a factor of about 24; throw in another factor of 2 because oblique incidence on water is reflective, and we are talking a radiative fraction of .015/50 = .0003, or about a tenth of a watt per square meter.

Verdict: TOO SMALL
http://planet3.org/2014/03/13/mcphersons-evidence-that-doom-doom-doom/

But then, what about the ocean-atmosphere interaction...?

While I usually enjoy Tobis' writing this is not a good example.  Arctic sea ice area typically tops out around 14 million square km - not 8 million.  And this ignores land ice area and snow cover.  Northern hemisphere snow cover extent tops out around 40 million square km.  Reductions in sea ice, land ice, and snow cover all affect albedo changes. 

Tobis says the arctic only receives solar radiation half the year - ignoring that it receives 24 hours of insolation during that half of the year.

Tobis is an engineer - not a climate scientist.  And while he generally informs himself on these types of topics before writing given just those simple problems with his math I wouldn't bet a farthing on his conclusion. 

romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2292 on: January 29, 2017, 04:36:09 PM »
I compared todays image vs yesterday, less than 24 hours difference. I would say Atlantic front is eating ice and cracks are widening.
Photos from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2293 on: January 29, 2017, 04:45:27 PM »
If the main significance of Arctic Ocean ice is reflection of solar radiation back out to space (refrigeration), then the planetary heat budget is due for a serious jolt -- soon -- from its effective disappearance. My interests are shifting to what happens next: runaway or staged warming. There are quite a few papers on the latter, from the same folks that brought you not-to-worry until 2100.
Solar radiation reflection seems not seriously significant directly. Michael Tobis wrote:
Quote
The fraction of solar input impinging on the Arctic is very small compared to the whole earth. The area of Arctic ice is, depending on the season, as much as 8,000,000 square kilometers, and the area of the earth is 510,000,000, so even if the Arctic got its fair share and it went from white to black year round that would cap its contribution at less than 1.5%; however, it only gets sunshine for half the year, and most of that time the sea ice is extensive. There is a worry that September sea ice will go away but no such worry about March sea ice. So we are really talking about July and August, so that’s about a sixth of the year. And then the low sun angle will multiply that by about sin(15 degrees) so together a factor of about 24; throw in another factor of 2 because oblique incidence on water is reflective, and we are talking a radiative fraction of .015/50 = .0003, or about a tenth of a watt per square meter.

Verdict: TOO SMALL
http://planet3.org/2014/03/13/mcphersons-evidence-that-doom-doom-doom/

But then, what about the ocean-atmosphere interaction...?

Apples compared with, not oranges but rocks.

The whole area within the Arctic circle gets heated 24/7 when in sunshine.
The whole area within the Antarctic circle at the same time gets zero heat.
The equatorial belt gets 12 hours heating and 12 hours cooling.

The figure of 8,000,000 sq. km must be compared with the rest of the daylit planet, not the whole planet.  Also, the Arctic buildup of 24 hour heat versus the heating-cooling cycles elsewhere must be factored in.

For details, please see http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page3.php
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2294 on: January 29, 2017, 04:45:46 PM »
"vorticity" There's every chance that tidal surges rounding Svalbard are running against the continental shelf forming themselves into coherent overturning currents. This would be new as far as I know, but looking at http://www.arctic.io/maps/bathymetry/ and permafrost maps it at least suggests a black ocean event is possible later in the season. If it is this it has 3/4 days to run.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2295 on: January 29, 2017, 05:32:21 PM »
Quote
The 'elephant' in this room is the loss of snow cover , early in spring, from the northern land masses ( from the turn of the century) and the same 'thermal impact' that sea ice loss has on the surrounding lands.

Attached are the trends for Northen hemisphere snow cover for fall, winter and spring. This is from Rutgers Snow lab, seasonal snow extent pages: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php

Please notice that snow cover during fall is distinctly up and snow cover on spring is distinctly down.  During fall albedo is much less significant than during spring. During spring insolation starts to grow. Any lowered albedo means increase energy being accumulated earlier in the year. The accumulation of insolation is what eventually leads to the end of the freezing season and the beginning of the melting season. So the more is being accumulated, the earlier the freezing season reaches a tipping point. The earliest that tipping point, the more insolation accumulates for the melting season.

That insolation is merely one more heat forcing on the arctic. This self feeding forcing must be added with all other heat and mechanical forcings form the oceans and atmosphere.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2296 on: January 29, 2017, 06:12:32 PM »
FOW do you have a link to the 94 m salinity maps of previous years?

They may be accessible somehow but they disappeared from the public web interface at the last update. The previous model version produced results that may not be directly comparable with this version's. I noticed some changes visually, but comparing results from memory is not exactly good science.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2297 on: January 29, 2017, 06:31:09 PM »
Quote
Verdict: TOO STUPID to warrant a response. Maybe he should share his big discovery with Jennifer Francis before she wastes any more time studying the aftermath of Arctic ice loss?
The image below just bins out the hycom thickness forecast for 04 Feb 17. At this rate, we'll be seasonally ice free for all practical purposes for a good portion of the coming melt season.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2298 on: January 29, 2017, 07:06:51 PM »
The image below just bins out the hycom thickness forecast for 04 Feb 17. At this rate, we'll be seasonally ice free for all practical purposes for a good portion of the coming melt season.

You' ve forgotten Nuclear Winter out of the Equasion...

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2299 on: January 29, 2017, 07:32:58 PM »
The "green monster" in the HYCOM picture looks very sad or even cries. Maybe because half of it's head prone to be exported through the Fram and melted near Svalbard