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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2550 on: February 04, 2017, 11:43:42 PM »
k
I have always spoken about latent heat and water vapor (TPW)

And Jim, you are right! While Julienne was a co-author on the paper, she was not the lead nor the narrator on that video.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2017, 11:54:54 PM by jai mitchell »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2551 on: February 04, 2017, 11:46:21 PM »
I don't think there is an argument for actual significant melting taking place in January 2016.

However Boisvert et al. say:

Quote
The extremely warm and humid air mass associated with the cyclone caused an amount of energy equivalent to the power used in one year by half a million American homes to be transferred from the atmosphere to the surface of the sea ice in the Kara-Barents region. As a result, the area’s sea ice thinned by almost 4 inches (10 centimeters) on average.

At the same time, the storm winds pushed the edges of the sea ice north, compacting the ice pack.

Back to 2017 now?
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2552 on: February 04, 2017, 11:58:12 PM »
   
Quote
As seaicesailor suggested, we should watch the next coming storm with great interest.

As I mentioned a few days ago, it appears this storm, as strong as it starts out, will not move up into the CAB itself. Rather it will become the dominant system in a setup that allows it to feed smaller and weaker lows further north, pumping moisture to them. Some of the wind patterns that are set up will cause problems. At one point, Bering export picks back up, with the affected ice already in bad shape. Keep an eye on Nares and Baffin, also.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2553 on: February 05, 2017, 12:04:05 AM »
@ Jim Hunt
Is that the one that actually started in very late December 2015 and went into January, as seen here?


Edit: Sorry, as I just realized it was the same one you guys had posted above. Consider it another opportunity for anyone that has not seen it.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 12:10:37 AM by Tigertown »

CognitiveBias

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2554 on: February 05, 2017, 12:21:49 AM »
   
Quote
As seaicesailor suggested, we should watch the next coming storm with great interest.

As I mentioned a few days ago, it appears this storm, as strong as it starts out, will not move up into the CAB itself. Rather it will become the dominant system in a setup that allows it to feed smaller and weaker lows further north, pumping moisture to them. Some of the wind patterns that are set up will cause problems. At one point, Bering export picks back up, with the affected ice already in bad shape. Keep an eye on Nares and Baffin, also.




Looking ahead in nullschool, one of the most striking things, to me at least, is in the CAB.  Almost 87N 3 days out forecast at a balmy -4C.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/08/0000Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-89.41,86.14,814/loc=76.672,86.779


EDIT:

OK, 3M waves at the mouth of the Nares is pretty striking as well.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/05/0300Z/ocean/primary/waves/anim=off/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-89.41,86.14,814/loc=-75.567,76.338
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 12:43:59 AM by CognitiveBias »

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2555 on: February 05, 2017, 12:51:20 AM »
Note that the 2012 melt volume was around 19K m3. So -- in ballpark figures, if we only crest at 19K or just above, that sets up the possibility that we go near ice-free this year. It would require a whopper of a summer (2007 or 2012 level), but the chance is there. A persistence of the current anomaly would get us around 20K. Kind of gives an idea of how little margin there is left.
I'm not convinced we'll melt out... yet.

I'm in pretty close agreement with you though.

There's some potential bad synergy here - as the ice is thinner, it will facilitate localized melt out which in turn will reduce albedo and increase insolation uptake.  Considering that, I don't think we'll need a bad a year as 2007 or 2012 to go very low.

At this point, I"m fully expecting SIE and SIA to drop under 2 million KM2.  Again, unlike previous years, my concern isn't that we'll have weather that will kill the ice; it's that we won't get weather that will save it.
I'm bullish that some Arctic sea ice will survive the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer of 2017.  (Or is it: I'm bearish that Arctic sea ice will melt out this summer?)  Here’s why:  in past years, like 2007 and 2012, there was more sea ice (volume) outside the Central Arctic Basin (CAB) than there is today.  These ‘southern’ areas have a longer melt season than does the CAB, so with the aid of global warming, tend to melt out.  This year, with less volume than usual (ever?) these peripheral areas may very well completely melt out, and may do so unprecedentedly early.  But because of the shorter melt season in the CAB (except for the Atlantic side of it), even with less ice than usual (ever?), CAB sea ice will likely hold on for another year or so.  The game-changer in my mind is if winds continually blow the CAB ice toward Svalbard/Fram Strait.

If the peripheral areas do melt out early, they will accumulate more surface heat than ever, and ‘we won’t be in Kansas anymore’, nor, perhaps, even in Oz (not the Australian one, but the make-believe one).

To make my estimation better than "ballpark" would, I think, require removing the outer peripheral seas (like the Ohktosk, Bering, Hudson and St. Lawrence) and exclusively compare volume changes in the basin proper. Excluding the volume from those areas (which invariably melt out no matter what year it is and have only a small effect in determining basin melt) would give a better picture as to how likely it would be to attain the volume of melt necessary to reach an ice-free or near ice-free condition. Also, to be mindful of the CAB's shorter melt season, as you rightfully point out, the end-date of comparison should probably be shifted to the end of August. CAB melt is usually done by then.

My view is that this could legitimately be the first season where there is a real (but small) chance that <1M km^2 of area or extent is attainable. Probably 5%-10% (slightly higher for area of course). That's a small, but significantly higher chance than any other year so far.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2556 on: February 05, 2017, 12:55:05 AM »
I wonder if we get PaddyPower odds on this by the end of the freezing season.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2557 on: February 05, 2017, 01:13:51 AM »
...
My judgement is based solely on the raw energy available in the air, compared to the heat of fusion/melting required to melt ice.

Fundamentally, the energy required to melt one gram of ice would raise the temperature of a similar mass of air 80C.  If the ice is melting, the energy is *not* coming from the atmosphere, it's coming out of the ocean.
...

JD, notwithstanding the suggestion that some of the comments might be better on more of a pure science thread, can I just point out that you're getting the Specific Heats mixed up.

The Latent heat of fusion of ice is around 333.55 kJ/kg

The Specific Heat of (pure) water is around 4.182 kJ/(kg.K)
(or around 3.85 kJ/(kg.K) for brine)

(That's where the x80 comes in.)

However, the SH for dry air is only around 1.005 kJ/(kg.K)

Therefore, the energy needed to melt 1 kg of ice (with no temp change) would be enough to raise the temperature of ~ 332 kg of air by 1 Kelvin.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2558 on: February 05, 2017, 01:49:50 AM »
It is getting late into the evening where I am, and I just looked at the most recent images available.
I had looked at everything this morning, and from what I remember, I can honestly say that most of the ice looks worse now than this morning. I wish that I would have dl'd the ones this morning; may have to make that the new morning routine. That's getting pretty bad, when you need to compare images from the same day.



P.S.  I did get a good clear picture of the Bering Strait this evening.


The stream of melt to west  and north of St Lawrence Island is pretty striking

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2559 on: February 05, 2017, 12:05:41 PM »
RE: Relative importance of energy transport into the Arctic via atmospheric or oceanic processes.

I have just popped into this thread, so please forgive me if anything I say below has already been voiced further up the thread.

Taken as an annual average, virtually no parts of the planet are in radiative balance. In equatorial regions, the energy contained within the incoming solar radiation considerably exceeds that contained within the outgoing long wave radiation, whereas at high latitudes, the converse holds true. The overall planetary balancing act is performed by poleward (often referred to as meridional) energy transfer by the atmosphere and by oceanic currents.

My memory (a fickle beast at the best of times) suggested that, as regards energy flows into the Arctic, the atmosphere transported roughly twice as much energy as the oceans. Thirty minutes spent flicking through my text books failed to reveal the source for this "memory", so it was over to Mr Google.

This article, titled "Meridional energy transport in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system" may help...
https://www.princeton.edu/~gkv/papers/Vallis_FarnetiQJ09.pdf

The relevant text in the Introduction reads as follows...
" The overall picture is that at very low latitudes the polewards energy transport in the ocean exceeds that of the atmosphere, but in mid-latitudes the atmospheric transport is two or three times that of the ocean."

I hope that might help to provide some clarity to the ongoing debate.

For further background reading, one could do worse than to peruse this paper titled "The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic" ...
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/trenberth.papers/2006JD008230.pdf
Amongst the co-authors of that paper, many (most?, all?) of the readers of this thread would recognise the names Mark Serreze, Andrew Slater and Kevin Trenberth.


Of perhaps more interest as regards the effect of diminishing Arctic sea ice, one could look at the paper called: "The impact of Arctic sea ice on the Arctic energy budget and on the climate of the Northern mid-latitudes on the Arctic Energy budget", which is here...
https://epic.awi.de/30245/1/fulltext.pdf

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2560 on: February 05, 2017, 01:00:50 PM »
All of everything everyone has written, all the long texts, calculations, speculations about the cause and consequences of what we're seeing, is LOST and NEVER TO BE FOUND AGAIN because this is the wrong thread for discussing it. Can you all, please, please, find or create a specific thread for this? Most people, least of all me, have time to read an entire book every 2-3 hours, sifting out the bits pertaining to the 2016/2017 FREEZING SEASON.

It's a total waste and misdirection of time and energy, of both those partaking in the off-topic orgy, and those coming to find near-real time info here. Come on, my friends.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2561 on: February 05, 2017, 01:03:23 PM »
Moreover, we seeing slower thickening of Arctic ice this winter in part because clouds and water vapor are reducing outward longwave radiation over the Arctic ocean. In winter, it isn't an issue of warm air melting sea ice. It's an issue of clouds and water vapor slowing the increase of thickness of ice across the Arctic.
That's right. I've just posted this SAT+SLP comparison for the latest PIOMAS update on the ASIB, showing the difference between January 2013 and 2017:



Accompanying text:

Quote
Temperature-wise the differences aren't all that great, although it was cold in the southern part of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in 2013, whereas in 2017 the anomaly is all over the Arctic. The real difference is in sea level pressure. January 2013 was dominated by high pressure, which means skies were clear during the long polar night, and so there was a lot of outgoing radiation, with no clouds to bounce some of it back to the surface. And very little snowfall to insulate the ice and slow down the thickening process.

There also was a lot of clockwise movement of ice, with leads opening up and refreezing again (remember the huge cracking event we saw later in February 2013?). This atmospheric set-up causes some ice to be transported through Fram Strait, but at the same time the Transpolar Drift Stream pushes the ice towards Greenland and the CAA, where it can then thicken up and turn into the multi-year ice that is keeping the Arctic sea ice pack alive (for now).

This year there was none of that. The opposite happened, with low pressure dominating, brought in by the multiple Atlantic storms that battered the Arctic (the strongest of which I described in a recent blog post). These storms brought in snow that insulates the ice. They brought in clouds that keep in the outgoing longwave radiation and bounce it back down again. And finally, the way the cyclones swirled towards the Kara Sea, meant that the anti-clockwise winds pushed out large amounts of (multi-year) ice through Fram Strait, as well as the area between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land, where most of it melted immediately.

In short, January 2017 was pretty much disastrous for the sea ice. There's just two months left of freezing, and after that we can only pray for a repeat of 2013, the first of two post-2012 rebound years, where clouds and cold temperatures prevented an Arctic sea ice catastrophe.

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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2562 on: February 05, 2017, 01:25:30 PM »
Just to get an idea of what has been happening, here is Jan. 20th to Feb. 4th

charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2563 on: February 05, 2017, 02:29:50 PM »
I couldn't help noticing the differences from this to the Piomas "January Average". 

I have taken the liberty of rotating AMSR2 for 21st and putting them side by side.....

Is this significant?  Seems there is thick ice in different areas.

Piomas image from Wipneus
Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« Reply #1306 on: February 04, 2017, 03:11:49 PM »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2564 on: February 05, 2017, 02:52:23 PM »
Can you all, please, please, find or create a specific thread for this?

Hear, hear! Only marginally off topic, please go via:

ClimateGate 2

Sorry Neven! Back to 2017 freezing. Or is it melting?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/facts-about-the-arctic-in-february-2017/
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2565 on: February 05, 2017, 03:08:29 PM »
Jim,

 normally extended veneer of ice...

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2566 on: February 05, 2017, 03:15:07 PM »
quoted posts moved to:
Arctic Water Vapor & Heat Pulses (Atmospheric Rivers/Winter Storms)
thread, under "Science"

link: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1874.0.html
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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2567 on: February 05, 2017, 04:17:06 PM »
ASCAT day 35:
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2568 on: February 05, 2017, 05:11:58 PM »
... this is the wrong thread for discussing it. Can you all, please, please, find or create a specific thread for this? ...

Sorry for the OT  :-[

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2569 on: February 05, 2017, 05:14:19 PM »

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2570 on: February 05, 2017, 05:20:08 PM »
ASCAT day 35:

Just wow....

Ascat is occasionally hard to interprete but taken a year or years apart the differences are sometimes rather eye-catching...
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2571 on: February 05, 2017, 05:42:16 PM »
Wow! Pacific side of the CAB looks horrible. Meanwhile, the Atlantic side of the CAB is racing towards the exits.

If lows continue to dominate what is left of this freeze season, this feature will strengthen I fear.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2572 on: February 05, 2017, 05:46:36 PM »
With very little thick ice along the western portion of the CAA, I bet the Northwest passage opens early although the garlic press will be active as well which could make the passage quite dangerous.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2573 on: February 05, 2017, 06:48:12 PM »
Ascat based estimate of something about 10 days ago... There was no more current images available. Not on computer so can't show any better...
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2574 on: February 05, 2017, 09:08:43 PM »
Ascat based estimate of something about 10 days ago

See the link at: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#CERSAT

It's combined METOP A and B with pretty colours (IIRC)

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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2575 on: February 06, 2017, 12:59:45 AM »
This is pretty stupendous - wide plume of near 20KG/M2 moisture blowing straight up the Fram to near the pole, with matching +30C temp anomalies.
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georged

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2576 on: February 06, 2017, 01:49:52 AM »
This is pretty stupendous - wide plume of near 20KG/M2 moisture blowing straight up the Fram to near the pole, with matching +30C temp anomalies.

Wouldn't this retard ice melt rather than encourage it, as the Fram is functioning very effectively as an Arctic heat-import engine this year.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2577 on: February 06, 2017, 03:15:01 AM »
This is pretty stupendous - wide plume of near 20KG/M2 moisture blowing straight up the Fram to near the pole, with matching +30C temp anomalies.

Wouldn't this retard ice melt rather than encourage it, as the Fram is functioning very effectively as an Arctic heat-import engine this year.
It in net will be more damaging than weather which typically drives Fram export, and will only interrupt it briefly.

Fram is better evaluated when taken as a whole across the entire season, than by single events.

This storm will import tremendous heat, easily enough I think to balance what might be lost through vigorous Fram export over the same period of time.  What it will do in addition is what's not seen - inhibit the formation of new ice and prevent thickening of existing ice.  At this stage of the season, with the ice in the state it is currently, that's as bad as 4 days of export. 

We desperately need temperatures which will create a robust pack, and only have about 7 weeks left to do that before enough sunlight starts reaching the region to prevent it.  It looks like the current circulation and chain of storms are already going to take two weeks out of that time.
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2578 on: February 06, 2017, 03:23:07 AM »
That will be quite a blow....

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2579 on: February 06, 2017, 04:04:35 AM »
When the wind blows back the ice waiting on Fram export, with the condition it is in, it just loosens it up for easier export later.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2580 on: February 06, 2017, 04:33:24 AM »
Might this open some of those mysterious cracks north of Svalbard and FJL even further?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2581 on: February 06, 2017, 05:16:28 AM »
Now that is an interesting weather situation. Northern European Russia gets warmth from the north from Kara Sea in february! That alone might be the first. Lincoln might open due the low. FJL could again connect with the main shattered pack for ice movement.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2582 on: February 06, 2017, 07:50:34 AM »
The LP is at 938 hpa and a secondary pattern is attacking Svalbard with a cozy 3.5 to 4.5 degree C surface wind, with plenty of moisture with the whole setup.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2583 on: February 06, 2017, 07:54:15 AM »
The LP is at 938 hpa and a secondary pattern is attacking Svalbard with a cozy 3.5 to 4.5 degree C surface wind, with plenty of moisture with the whole setup.
100 hours out...

These are pretty amazing temperatures.
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ArcticMelt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2584 on: February 06, 2017, 09:04:36 AM »
ASCAT day 35:

You can see all the years since 2010. Each year is unique. 2017 highlighted the strong fragmentation of old ice (a consequence of the summer cyclones). Plus only in 2013 and 2017 do not have the flow of old ice in the Beaufort Sea.

Only a cold summer can save the Arctic from a new low in September 2017.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2585 on: February 06, 2017, 05:20:45 PM »
FYI current atlantic low bottomed out at 932 mb

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2586 on: February 06, 2017, 05:50:28 PM »
It is serving as an effective relay of moisture.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2587 on: February 06, 2017, 05:56:08 PM »
More like a moisture cannon....

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2588 on: February 06, 2017, 06:00:25 PM »
If the 12z GFS operational run keeps it promises we might see a "bomb cyclone" at about 945 hpa make a quick visit through the Fram in about 6-7 days from now. The "big blob" is in a very risky business e.g to be pushed to the Atlantic "death zone".

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2589 on: February 06, 2017, 07:00:46 PM »
If the 12z GFS operational run keeps it promises we might see a "bomb cyclone" at about 945 hpa make a quick visit through the Fram in about 6-7 days from now. The "big blob" is in a very risky business e.g to be pushed to the Atlantic "death zone".
The predicted extremes on Thursday evening I posted about have backed off slightly, but the weather is making up for it with sheer duration.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2590 on: February 06, 2017, 07:01:48 PM »
rain in the forecast for svalbard tomorrow through wed

https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Svalbard_Airport_observation_site/
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2591 on: February 06, 2017, 07:09:48 PM »
Svalbard above 1C. Qatar at 1.5C

  :o :o :o

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2592 on: February 06, 2017, 08:38:56 PM »
....... Qatar at 1.5C

  :o :o :o


That's a bit further afield but to my untutored eye the sub tropical jetstream seems appears to have merged with the polar jetstream. How stable or temporary this configuration is I wouldn't hazard a guess but I imagine it would facilitate warm air moving Northwards.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2593 on: February 06, 2017, 09:47:19 PM »
....... Qatar at 1.5C

  :o :o :o


That's a bit further afield but to my untutored eye the sub tropical jetstream seems appears to have merged with the polar jetstream. How stable or temporary this configuration is I wouldn't hazard a guess but I imagine it would facilitate warm air moving Northwards.

Not my expertise either but I'm not so sure there is a polar jet.  Things going on in the stratosphere are....interesting...

Just when are we expecting the beginning of melt season this year?

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2594 on: February 06, 2017, 09:59:08 PM »
As soon as "stall" season ends. ;)

A quick link for one year ago on Earth NS for jetstream comparison or anything else.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/02/06/0600Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=289.40,15.50,613/loc=-22.817,61.224

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2595 on: February 06, 2017, 10:02:26 PM »
As soon as "stall" season ends. ;)

A quick link for one year ago on Earth NS for jetstream comparison or anything else.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/02/06/0600Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=289.40,15.50,613/loc=-22.817,61.224

Ask and ye shall receive.  Thanks Tigger!

Now...what dies it mean?

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2596 on: February 06, 2017, 10:13:53 PM »
I know about as much as you guys do about it, but just looking back a couple years or so, it looks like it has changed. There was some blending before, but not like now. Obviously the vortex at 10 hpa , though at a different altitude than the jet stream at 250 hpa are both teleconnected. Both are weak and the Arctic air can vacation in Qatar or Egypt or wherever. Maybe even Acupulco next year. Afghanistan just had avalanches from two meters of snow, while the Arctic has a mean anomaly of 5o+C.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2597 on: February 06, 2017, 10:19:16 PM »
I know about as much as you guys do about it, but just looking back a couple years or so, it looks like it has changed. There was some blending before, but not like now. Obviously the vortex at 10 hpa , though at a different altitude than the jet stream at 250 hpa are teleconnected. Both are weak and the Arctic air can vacation in Qatar or Egypt or wherever. Maybe even Acupulco next year. Afghanistan just had avalanches from two meters of snow, while the Arctic has a mean anomaly of 5o+C.

We live in interesting times.  There was a lot going on before December 2015, but I am convinced the strange attractor changed near the end of 2015.  We are no longer in Kansas Toto.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2598 on: February 06, 2017, 10:23:08 PM »
The weather channel's view of this current storm that's heading north.


https://weather.com/news/weather/news/north-atlantic-storm-hurricane-force-winds-images

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2599 on: February 06, 2017, 10:27:48 PM »
The weather channel's view of this current storm that's heading north.


https://weather.com/news/weather/news/north-atlantic-storm-hurricane-force-winds-images

hehehe.... we need to teach them to discuss heat propagation...  (I kinda guess that is a lost cause)