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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2600 on: February 06, 2017, 11:34:39 PM »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2601 on: February 07, 2017, 01:31:38 AM »
FYI current atlantic low bottomed out at 932 mb

That's intriguing, because in my own cyclone update, based on the Canadian 6 hourly synoptic charts, I just wrote:

Quote
Note that the cyclone’s MSLP fell to 940 hPa earlier today.

A closer look is evidently required! Meanwhile here's the current and future weather in Longyearbyen:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2602 on: February 07, 2017, 11:43:54 AM »
Anyone else wondering where this years 'crackopalypse event' is? Since 2013 we have become accustomed to Beaufort showing a period of fragmentation by now and yet the only fragmentation I've seen has been the feed to Nares in Lincoln and the stretching of the pack approaching Fram.

Is this down to a change in synoptics this year or the quality of ice across Beaufort?
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Avalonian

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2603 on: February 07, 2017, 11:57:37 AM »
I'd been assuming it was the ice quality, Gray-Wolf: my impression is that it's no longer coherent enough for large-scale cracking to propagate on quite the same scale. This is based on the satellite images, though, so I'd love to see something close-up from a buoy... but we might be waiting a while on that one.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2604 on: February 07, 2017, 12:11:25 PM »
Anyone else wondering where this years 'crackopalypse event' is? <clip>

Nope. Well not me at least. It may be waiting march-april.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2605 on: February 07, 2017, 12:42:22 PM »
Anyone else wondering where this years 'crackopalypse event' is? Since 2013 we have become accustomed to Beaufort showing a period of fragmentation by now and yet the only fragmentation I've seen has been the feed to Nares in Lincoln and the stretching of the pack approaching Fram.

Is this down to a change in synoptics this year or the quality of ice across Beaufort?
I think it has nothing to do with the ice quality. There simply has not been a coherent strong drift yet, especially no Beaufort Gyre (apparently).
Impossible to know, but nothing indicates the quality of the ice in February 2013 was different, most of it relatively thin FYI (perhaps a bit thicker than today).

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2606 on: February 07, 2017, 01:07:47 PM »
Anyone else wondering where this years 'crackopalypse event' is? Since 2013 we have become accustomed to Beaufort showing a period of fragmentation by now and yet the only fragmentation I've seen has been the feed to Nares in Lincoln and the stretching of the pack approaching Fram.

Is this down to a change in synoptics this year or the quality of ice across Beaufort?

only thick and homogeneous ice cracks the way it did, the current kind of ice would probably turn into mash and smaller units that would not show on satellites the way the cracks you mention did.

i'm sure some experts can explain that better but you certainly understand what i'm heading at :-)

cheers

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2607 on: February 07, 2017, 02:50:28 PM »
Anyone else wondering where this years 'crackopalypse event' is? Since 2013 we have become accustomed to Beaufort showing a period of fragmentation by now and yet the only fragmentation I've seen has been the feed to Nares in Lincoln and the stretching of the pack approaching Fram.

Is this down to a change in synoptics this year or the quality of ice across Beaufort?

only thick and homogeneous ice cracks the way it did, the current kind of ice would probably turn into mash and smaller units that would not show on satellites the way the cracks you mention did.

i'm sure some experts can explain that better but you certainly understand what i'm heading at :-)

cheers

So what do we have,  icee or smoothie?

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2608 on: February 07, 2017, 03:29:49 PM »
I was wondering at the quality of the ice myself. There have been plenty of strong , short term, forcing on the pack ( as draw away around some of the Alaskan coast has shown?) but this has not translated into the fissures I have become accustomed to .

Even before the first recognised 'Crackopalypse ' event we saw fragmentation events over ice areas seeing disruption but not so this year apart from the 'stretching' into Fram and the concoidal fractures around Nares entrance. To me this would suggest this years pack is smashed into even smaller units and so we see more 'plastic deformation under stress and not well defined sutures?
KOYAANISQATSI

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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2609 on: February 07, 2017, 03:41:22 PM »
It's difficult to tell, as long as we don't get some serious, persistent high pressure over the Central Arctic. None of that showing up in the forecasts for now. It could be good for the ice though.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2610 on: February 07, 2017, 04:42:43 PM »
If the 'older ice' is so degraded, by past fracturing leaving it riddled with flaws, then pressure could shatter the ice into near snow? The pack would show no signs of stress/over slabbing as 'rough edges' compressed together?

When you could count the number of floes in the winter basin this would not be a problem but today? With so many floes welded together by new ice there must be a lot more 'give' in the ice , especially warmer ,less brittle ice?

EDIT: maybe like chain mail can take up a certain amount of compression/extension?

KOYAANISQATSI

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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2611 on: February 07, 2017, 06:35:02 PM »
If the 'older ice' is so degraded, by past fracturing leaving it riddled with flaws, then pressure could shatter the ice into near snow? The pack would show no signs of stress/over slabbing as 'rough edges' compressed together?

When you could count the number of floes in the winter basin this would not be a problem but today? With so many floes welded together by new ice there must be a lot more 'give' in the ice , especially warmer ,less brittle ice?

EDIT: maybe like chain mail can take up a certain amount of compression/extension?
This paper may offer some insight:

http://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/JOM/9902/Schulson-9902.html

Three primary take aways -

1) higher temperatures reduce compressive strength by 25% or more.
2) brine inclusions (like we see in new ice) significantly reduce strength as well.
3) with larger grain size (newer ice), there is higher ductility - the ice deforms more easily.

Combining these factors, along with ice in across much of the Arctic which is well under 2M in thickness,  I think provides us with ample reason why we haven't seen a Crackocalypse.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2613 on: February 07, 2017, 08:05:12 PM »
If the latest GFS 12z op run is correct, the Arctic might see a high pressure dome develope over the CAB by 7-8 days ahead. In addition to that, significantly lower temps will follow too over the whole Arctic.

The ECMWF 12z run differs, but is also showing a high pressure dome forming but at Greenland in 6-8 days. And the weather shouldn't be "calm", at least not initially, but there are some signs that the high pressure will strengthen by day 9-10.

Comment: the EURO is normally having the best skill of the two models and this is far away but there are at least some signs that we might see a pattern shift in a close future which should allow for some thickening of the sea ice.

A major question is how big the snow cover is on the ice? Even if we get a high pressure dominated situation, a thick snow cover will limit thickening. Depending of how the melting season develops this year, a heavy snow cover will be a double egged sword. Favorable melting conditions and we will get very serious situation in the Arctic. If we'll see a repeat of 2013-2014 melting seasons the snow cover will delay the potential disaster.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2614 on: February 07, 2017, 08:58:46 PM »
If the latest GFS 12z op run is correct, the Arctic might see a high pressure dome develope over the CAB by 7-8 days ahead. In addition to that, significantly lower temps will follow too over the whole Arctic.

The ECMWF 12z run differs, but is also showing a high pressure dome forming but at Greenland in 6-8 days. And the weather shouldn't be "calm", at least not initially, but there are some signs that the high pressure will strengthen by day 9-10.

Comment: the EURO is normally having the best skill of the two models and this is far away but there are at least some signs that we might see a pattern shift in a close future which should allow for some thickening of the sea ice.

A major question is how big the snow cover is on the ice? Even if we get a high pressure dominated situation, a thick snow cover will limit thickening. Depending of how the melting season develops this year, a heavy snow cover will be a double egged sword. Favorable melting conditions and we will get very serious situation in the Arctic. If we'll see a repeat of 2013-2014 melting seasons the snow cover will delay the potential disaster.

A little too late....

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2615 on: February 07, 2017, 09:10:57 PM »

A little too late....

What if , over low Solar, the propensity for blocking in the Atlantic shifts north as spring approaches ? Maybe I should not have dismissed the return of 'The Perfect Melt Storm' so quickly ( lol)

High Pressure might aid us in the short term but if it sticks around through spring???
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2616 on: February 07, 2017, 09:13:08 PM »
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2617 on: February 07, 2017, 09:13:40 PM »
If the latest GFS 12z op run is correct, the Arctic might see a high pressure dome develope over the CAB by 7-8 days ahead. In addition to that, significantly lower temps will follow too over the whole Arctic.

The ECMWF 12z run differs, but is also showing a high pressure dome forming but at Greenland in 6-8 days. And the weather shouldn't be "calm", at least not initially, but there are some signs that the high pressure will strengthen by day 9-10.

Comment: the EURO is normally having the best skill of the two models and this is far away but there are at least some signs that we might see a pattern shift in a close future which should allow for some thickening of the sea ice.

A major question is how big the snow cover is on the ice? Even if we get a high pressure dominated situation, a thick snow cover will limit thickening. Depending of how the melting season develops this year, a heavy snow cover will be a double egged sword. Favorable melting conditions and we will get very serious situation in the Arctic. If we'll see a repeat of 2013-2014 melting seasons the snow cover will delay the potential disaster.
I hate to tell you this, but I think any high pressure is going to be short lived.
It is kind of like the old Arctic is fighting down to the last, trying to make a comeback, but just can't get any foothold or momentum.
Here is the 17th.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2618 on: February 07, 2017, 10:40:06 PM »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2619 on: February 07, 2017, 10:44:39 PM »

A little too late....

What if , over low Solar, the propensity for blocking in the Atlantic shifts north as spring approaches ? Maybe I should not have dismissed the return of 'The Perfect Melt Storm' so quickly ( lol)

High Pressure might aid us in the short term but if it sticks around through spring???

High pressure in ten days puts us at around day 50.  By the time we get to day 100, it's pretty much over as far as freezing is concerned (thinking about 80N+ here - we're already too late over most of the peripheral seas).  Presuming we hold temperatures down to an average of around 243K, that would be about 1500 FDD - or at max about 0.75M of thickening.

This presumes ice which isn't covered with insulating snow and just about optimal freezing conditions.  Even if we get that, it will bring large stretches of ice up to just barely 2 meters, and won't thinken 2M+ ice much nearly that, especially if it has insulation.

If the high sticks around through spring, we're toast, as that means sunlight streaming into the already open Barents and Kara (which might freeze, but not much).  Add to that ready easy melt in the form of available snow and it goes downhill rapidly.

We've seen the models predict colder weather about 10 days out a couple of times this season.  Each time, the moisture cannon appears to stir itself back into action and force more heat back into high latitude.  I'm pessimistic about this projection as well.

But again, even with optimal conditions, too little and as Dr. Tskoul notes, "too late".
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Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2620 on: February 07, 2017, 11:52:55 PM »
The deterministic operational runs are generally not to be taken too seriously past D5-7 (depending on the pattern). That's what the ensemble runs are for (EPS and GEFS).

Granted, they show a cooldown over the basin in a week or so. However, I'm not convinced the colder pattern holds as a massive Pac jet extension takes hold, setting up a strong GoA low and big downstream ridge. The MJO should also help weaken the Walker cell considerably, helping set up the Nino-like pattern. That'll likely build, cutoff and retrograde a ridge and surface high into or north of AK with warmer southerly flow penetrating into the basin.

TLDR version: Yes, there's probably a cooldown. However the resultant Pacific jet pattern could result in significant heat/moisture from the Pacific a few days later.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2621 on: February 08, 2017, 12:16:20 AM »
Judah Cohen blog updated yesterday, should be of interest for you people if you did not read it yet, it goes much over my head
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2622 on: February 08, 2017, 12:31:27 AM »
Basically he was saying that the problems with a weak vortex are not over and will cause more problems this month for the Arctic.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2623 on: February 08, 2017, 04:17:19 AM »
For lack of anything else to contribute at the moment.
Click to enlarge
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2624 on: February 08, 2017, 07:10:17 AM »
Well, we were wondering if this storm, which didn't make it to the CAB would affect the ice and how much if so. It looks to have set volume back again.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2625 on: February 08, 2017, 12:47:08 PM »
Given that early February in the Arctic is no longer necessarily any guarantee of sub-zero conditions, it is perhaps a bit late in the day to talk again about Freezing Degree Days and their impact upon thickness growth rates.

Apologies if someone has provided this earlier in the thread, but here is a graphic representation of the Lebedev formula for sea ice thickness growth given in...
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/thermodynamic_growth.html

For anyone not used to using this type of chart, imagine that you are interested in a region where the ice thickness is currently 1.5 metres, and you want to know how may more FDDs are needed to get this up to 2 metres.

Simply read off how many FDDs are needed to get to 2 metres (= 5,900 FDD) and how many were needed to reach 1.5 metres (= 3,600 FDD). The difference in the two values (= 2,300) gives the number of FDDs still required to grow that additional 50 cms.



DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2626 on: February 08, 2017, 01:04:39 PM »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2627 on: February 08, 2017, 01:11:14 PM »
Is this as bad as it looks? I can't tell where the ice ends and where clouds and shadows are blocking the view.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

binntho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2628 on: February 08, 2017, 01:15:40 PM »
Tigertown, do you have a link to the website where you got the image? It looks really disturbing!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2629 on: February 08, 2017, 01:23:51 PM »
It can't be...

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2630 on: February 08, 2017, 01:32:41 PM »
Similar area, PolarView from yesterday....


romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2631 on: February 08, 2017, 01:36:29 PM »
Tigertown - it's clouds. I'm watching it as well, thick clouds over thick ice.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2632 on: February 08, 2017, 01:36:54 PM »
Melting, but not as fast, in other words.
Well, I think I might just have stumbled on the problem and it's not good, for the sea ice or Greenland over the next few days. On Earth Null School, I have been looking at surface winds, and checking the temps. in these at the same time, and finding nothing too impressive. Something told me to switch to 1000hpa and check the same. Probably not much difference in height but all kinds of warm moist air going into the Arctic. It shifts around over time in Greenland but still, not looking good the next few days. It looks to continue over the next few days in the Barents, with LP's setting up as relays.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2633 on: February 08, 2017, 01:37:52 PM »
Very warm clouds?
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 01:45:31 PM by DrTskoul »

TerryM

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2634 on: February 08, 2017, 03:32:33 PM »
AVHRR from DMI shows warm clouds as of 6:15 UTC


Terry

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2635 on: February 08, 2017, 03:47:13 PM »
AVHRR from DMI shows warm clouds as of 6:15 UTC


Terry

Thanks Terry...Not good for the ice...

CognitiveBias

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2636 on: February 08, 2017, 03:52:37 PM »
Less than 48 hours to peak assault close to the pole.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/10/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-88.42,88.89,837/loc=-2.633,78.809

5 meter waves plus temps above freezing at the edge of the ice.  Although nullschool waves don't show past 77N, open water and wind continues to 81N.

It should be fairly dramatic... 

TerryM

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2637 on: February 08, 2017, 03:53:01 PM »
DrT


Hate to admit it, but this is one year I'd like to see something happen that even Trump can't ignore.


Terry

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2638 on: February 08, 2017, 03:58:58 PM »
And- what can- could he do about it?
It' already out of control. The exponential funcion is loose on all fronts.
The only thing World Powers are doing like crazy is nuclear weapons modernization besides pretending like it's business as usual and is goint to be for at least 30 years...

TerryM

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2639 on: February 08, 2017, 05:38:33 PM »
Surely you don't think our respective country's were wrong in putting punitive tariffs on Chinese solar panels? How else could our manufacturers have been able to compete.


It was a shame that all those installers took such a hit, but businesses that can't afford lobbyists aren't big enough to matter anyway.


Manufacturing, particularly Big Manufacturing with lots of robots is the way to make our countries Great Again!


/OT
Terry

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2640 on: February 08, 2017, 05:41:05 PM »
Well that would be a tornado season from hell, drought continuing in the South and SW with terrible wildfires and the mother of all 'cane seasons with Majors ploughing into all coasts (major recurve of a Hurricane off Baja hitting the west coast population centres) and storm surge flooding down the eastern Seaboard?

It doesn't matter what trumplethinskin thinks asbout it but it does matter that it is impactful enough to scare folks to their senses and stop hiding behind faux denial as an excuse for ignorance!

Should the start of this melt season follow that of 07's then it would not be long before the media was tipped off that something awful was starting to happen across the Arctic?

Would that be enough alone or would we need to see LaesenC calve and then collapse as LarsenB did, the Peterman calve and some mass Greenland Avalanche/Ice sheet failure ( due to the snow layer becoming too saturated with melt water but then involving decayed ice below?)  as well
KOYAANISQATSI

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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2641 on: February 08, 2017, 06:55:58 PM »
WRONG THREAD!!!

ON TOPIC, PLEASE!!!

The Arctic don't care about Trump.
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2642 on: February 08, 2017, 07:27:20 PM »
The weather channel does! That is care about the Arctic. They just can't say "Climate Change" apparently.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/arctic-temperatures-above-average-atlantic-storm-early-february-2017

I like that they put the NSIDC extent map in the article. Just sneaking it in, right?

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2643 on: February 08, 2017, 07:40:03 PM »
Given that early February in the Arctic is no longer necessarily any guarantee of sub-zero conditions, it is perhaps a bit late in the day to talk again about Freezing Degree Days and their impact upon thickness growth rates.

Apologies if someone has provided this earlier in the thread, but here is a graphic representation of the Lebedev formula for sea ice thickness growth given in...
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/thermodynamic_growth.html

For anyone not used to using this type of chart, imagine that you are interested in a region where the ice thickness is currently 1.5 metres, and you want to know how may more FDDs are needed to get this up to 2 metres.

Simply read off how many FDDs are needed to get to 2 metres (= 5,900 FDD) and how many were needed to reach 1.5 metres (= 3,600 FDD). The difference in the two values (= 2,300) gives the number of FDDs still required to grow that additional 50 cms.
AH!  I failed to consider the exponential and prior FDD's in the region.  That plus what DrTskoul posted *further* marginalizes what positive impact a cold snap would have at this juncture. 1800 FDD's (were we so lucky...) will likely not produce the necessary significant ice growth we need.
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2644 on: February 08, 2017, 07:43:13 PM »
And the more snow there is, the more of those FDDs you would need....

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2645 on: February 08, 2017, 07:50:59 PM »
And the more snow there is, the more of those FDDs you would need....
<massively> more.

If this is any indicator, I'd extrapolate 4020+CM on average across the basin. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnhemsnow.gif
CCI has what are probably better estimates for it.

20CM of snow increases the time required to thicken ice under it by weeks.  Another reason why freezing earlier in the season is so crucial.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 08:02:18 PM by jdallen »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2646 on: February 08, 2017, 08:17:24 PM »
Latest GFS 12z op run continues to be in favor for at least some temporary cold snap in the Arctic basin from about 1 week or so. And more high pressure dominated weather from D10 too.

The EURO OTOH, continues to have low pressures dominating and with bad news for the ice in form of a high pressure over Greenland shoveling ice to Fram.

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2647 on: February 09, 2017, 01:23:22 AM »
WRONG THREAD!!!

ON TOPIC, PLEASE!!!

The Arctic don't care about Trump.

The correct thread to discus melting is closed.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2648 on: February 09, 2017, 01:42:56 AM »
The southern Kara sea is now visible on Worldview, not looking great . Nor is the Bering Strait.

According to GFS the Bering and Chukchi will see a lot of wind later in the next week, favouring export and peaking at over 60kmh . At the same time wind will be pushing the Atlantic side straight towards Svalbard and doom

So we may see some extent increases!

subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2649 on: February 09, 2017, 04:23:12 AM »
wow, huge areas of goodbye waves in the Bering Sea today.