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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2850 on: February 18, 2017, 04:02:40 PM »
Another view of the debris left behind by the powerful storm that passed over Fram Strait a few days ago
The Fram situation is amazing and disturbing. What looked like good ice cover turned to an ice cube soup in a few days of battering, and this in February. Were it not for the MYI the whole thing could have become open water. I shudder to think what the summer might bring.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2851 on: February 18, 2017, 04:12:16 PM »
Another view of the debris left behind by the powerful storm that passed over Fram Strait a few days ago
The Fram situation is amazing and disturbing. What looked like good ice cover turned to an ice cube soup in a few days of battering, and this in February. Were it not for the MYI the whole thing could have become open water. I shudder to think what the summer might bring.
I totally agree, the more images I see of it, the more I think this was an incredible event. Not sure if somebody remember such a mess being done of so much MYI in a handful of days!
Not that this ice was not going to melt out soon anyway, but, I dont think this is going to help to keep MYI precisely now when Fram export typically is maximum

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2852 on: February 18, 2017, 04:52:02 PM »
Concentration and volume have been on the upswing for a couple of days now.

true of course but a straw-fire IMO, water is too warm, the growth will run into an invisible wall IMO, let's see

enjoy the weekend :-)

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2853 on: February 18, 2017, 05:46:17 PM »
Vaguely on topic, I hope... 62H, 41L degrees F here in Minneapolis today, beat the previous record by 8 degrees. Normal is 30/14. Snow cover is gone - a month early.

(other than in my front yard, of course, which is on a north facing slope on top of a 6x200 foot  geothermal heat-exchanger, which has been chilling it down all winter. What can I say? I don't like mowing the lawn.)
Until the melt season thread is reopened this is as good as it gets.

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2854 on: February 18, 2017, 06:00:31 PM »
Another view of the debris left behind by the powerful storm that passed over Fram Strait a few days ago
The Fram situation is amazing and disturbing. What looked like good ice cover turned to an ice cube soup in a few days of battering, and this in February. Were it not for the MYI the whole thing could have become open water. I shudder to think what the summer might bring.
welcome to melt season in February.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2855 on: February 18, 2017, 06:01:54 PM »
There is a strong export wind setting up for the fram for the next 5 days or so.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/19/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-151.90,93.77,3000/loc=-6.261,83.047
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wili

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2856 on: February 18, 2017, 07:13:42 PM »
Epiphyte, I'm in Minneapolis, too. Only a bit of residual ice on my non-lawn (all natives now...I also hate to mow). 55F now (~= 13C) and headed toward 60.

It's not completely odd to have one or two warm days in January or February here. But what's really weird is having week, long stretches, as we have over the last month or so, when the temperature never goes below freezing. I'm pretty sure that never happened in January or February when I was a kid.

Getting slightly back to topic, they are now warning people to not drive or even walk on lake ice. Many are covered with puddles. I wonder if we will see some lakes start to open up by the end of the current warm spell!?
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aslan

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2857 on: February 18, 2017, 07:34:55 PM »
Using the reanalysis, we can calculate also the mean of the downward radiation flux. Of course, it is the reanalysis, with a coarse resolution and its own limitations (especially discontinuities due to inclusion of varying kinds of data), but I think it is quite good nonetheless, if we look at the values after 1981 (start of the satellite era). So, the downward radiation flux, or the infrared emitted by the atmosphere toward Earth surface (one funny thing when you have some knowledge in physics, you know you are a being of light and that you are shining :D ). Data are for the whole above 69°N (radiation data are along a Gauss grid, I take values up to 69.5217°N, cell index 11), averaged according to surface (hoping I make no mistakes), for each day from 1st January, 1981 :



It is looking quite like the graph of the temperature according to the DNMI, which is not unexpected by the way. We are tempted to say, a warmer atmosphere radiates more energy, so what is the point?

Actually there is more in this. The mean level of radiation for Earth is around 5 - 6 km, so around 500 hPa, take or given a couple of hPa. Relationship between temperature and radiation is not linear, so we can calculate the flux of a black-body with our old friend, the equation of a black-body :

Flux = 5.67e-8 * T^4

The grid for the temperatures are not the same as the one for the radiation data, but I didn't care about this. The precision of the reanalysis is probably far worse than the small difference induced by averaging over a slightly different area. So I used the region above 67.5°N for the temperatures, calculate the radiation flux from the temperature and compare with DWLR, and averaged for the three months from November to January (February is still ongoing un 2017). The year of reference is that of January (ie., NDJ 2017 is the average of ND 2016 and J 2017) :



Values are roughly the same, so yeah 500 hPa is a good level. But correlation is not looking good actually... I look to other levels, but the correlation is not significantly better. As a side-note, the temperatures at 500 hPa :



So, what if we try with the precipitable water?



It looks way better...

So I detrend the series, to compare the cross-correlation. Anomalies of the downward radiation flux, explained by the anomalies of the black-body emmision :



Anomalies of the downward radiation flux, explained by the anomalies of the precipitable water :



Anomalies of the anomalies of the precipitable water, explained by the temperature at 500 hPa :



I will not try an argument about chickens and eggs. It is of course difficult to disentangled all the mechanisms ongoing. But at least the increasing of water vapor, linked to warming of the temperatures but also to the decrease of Arctic sea ice, is increasing downward radiations.

The major point is that a warming of 20°C or 30°C is not impossible at surface is thus not impossible. With global warming, the "thin" -a 2 km thick and 20°C inversion is massive for an inversion in the absolute, but compared to the whole atmosphere this it is not so thick nor so cold- the "thin" layer of permanent inversion is set to be destroyed, with only marginal warming above. Usually there is around 5 to 10°C between surface and 850 hPa. Even a 7-8°C lapse rate with a 850 hPa layer around 250K would imply a mean surface temperature a bit below 260K, around -15°C, barely enough cold for sea ice. This graph shows the warming of the Arctic layers :



The surface 1000 hPa is warming fast and is now warmer than the 850 hPa for the first time since 1981 (and probably since many millenniums...). And the strength of the inversion (or of the now non-inversion) taken as the difference between the 850 hPa and 1000 hPa temperatures :





I will post the spreadsheet with the data a bit latter ;)

P.S. : THe spreadsheet www.climatvisu.fr/Neven_ASIF/dlwr_out_2.ods
« Last Edit: February 18, 2017, 08:53:16 PM by aslan »

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2858 on: February 18, 2017, 08:43:15 PM »
Quote
I will not try an argument about chickens and eggs. It is of course difficult to disentangled all the mechanisms ongoing. But at least the increasing of water vapor, linked to warming of the temperatures but also to the decrease of Arctic sea ice, is increasing downward radiations.

Calculations consistent with physical mechanisms...Good check.. :) ...

Thanks for the analysis Aslan.... :)

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2859 on: February 18, 2017, 09:21:17 PM »
Using the reanalysis, we can calculate also the mean of the downward radiation flux...
So, what if we try with the precipitable water?
It looks way better...

I will not try an argument about chickens and eggs. It is of course difficult to disentangled all the mechanisms ongoing. But at least the increasing of water vapor, linked to warming of the temperatures but also to the decrease of Arctic sea ice, is increasing downward radiations.

The major point is that a warming of 20°C or 30°C is not impossible at surface is thus not impossible. With global warming, the "thin" -a 2 km thick and 20°C inversion is massive for an inversion in the absolute, but compared to the whole atmosphere this it is not so thick nor so cold- the "thin" layer of permanent inversion is set to be destroyed, with only marginal warming above. Usually there is around 5 to 10°C between surface and 850 hPa. Even a 7-8°C lapse rate with a 850 hPa layer around 250K would imply a mean surface temperature a bit below 260K, around -15°C, barely enough cold for sea ice.
Wow thanks for that piece of work! Isn't there something remotely similar published out there?
Pretty scary conclusions. 
This graph shows the warming of the Arctic layers :



The surface 1000 hPa is warming fast and is now warmer than the 850 hPa for the first time since 1981 (and probably since many millenniums...). And the strength of the inversion (or of the now non-inversion) taken as the difference between the 850 hPa and 1000 hPa temperatures :
Killer graph. That yellow line is showing almost 20 degC of warming!
« Last Edit: February 18, 2017, 09:37:22 PM by seaicesailor »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2860 on: February 18, 2017, 09:41:30 PM »
Using the reanalysis, we can calculate also the mean of the downward radiation flux...
So, what if we try with the precipitable water?
It looks way better...

I will not try an argument about chickens and eggs. It is of course difficult to disentangled all the mechanisms ongoing. But at least the increasing of water vapor, linked to warming of the temperatures but also to the decrease of Arctic sea ice, is increasing downward radiations.

The major point is that a warming of 20°C or 30°C is not impossible at surface is thus not impossible. With global warming, the "thin" -a 2 km thick and 20°C inversion is massive for an inversion in the absolute, but compared to the whole atmosphere this it is not so thick nor so cold- the "thin" layer of permanent inversion is set to be destroyed, with only marginal warming above. Usually there is around 5 to 10°C between surface and 850 hPa. Even a 7-8°C lapse rate with a 850 hPa layer around 250K would imply a mean surface temperature a bit below 260K, around -15°C, barely enough cold for sea ice.
Wow thanks for that piece of work! Isn't there something remotely similar published out there?
Pretty scary conclusions.
A significant cause behind what we are seeing hiding right in front of is in broad daylight.  What aslan has demonstrated is a specific cascading feedback mechanism which I suspect is missing from most if not all model's computations.  If it is, I suspect it has not been modelled effectively enough, as it may be we are seeing a complete dynamic that's neither fully understood or been closely observed.

It may be there are relevant papers we haven't seen, and yes, this implies a pretty scary feedback and an implied tipping point.  If ice drops much below 3M KM2, the additional heat uptake and H2O being injected into the atmosphere combined with that being imported from steady less dramatic changes further south may translate to a rapid state change in atmospheric circulation that no one has envisioned.

The short ride to to that new state will likely be very bumpy.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2861 on: February 18, 2017, 10:44:11 PM »
Awesome stuff, Aslan. Merci beaucoup. I remember there have been some papers on the inversion stuff not so long ago.

This actually deserves a thread of its own, and so I've opened one. Let me know if it needs a better title.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2862 on: February 19, 2017, 12:01:36 AM »
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2847 on: Today at 07:27:39 AM »
a comment on Seaicesailor's posted GIF of ice floes moving eastward just north of Greenland:
Watching those MYI(?) blocks of ice playing bumper-cars is too cute.


Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2863 on: February 19, 2017, 12:10:37 AM »
Thanks Aslan.

Meanwhile the thin ice map from Bremen is looking terrible, with sub 0.5m ice everywhere from the Laptev to Hudson Bay, including around the pole hole

pauldry600

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2864 on: February 19, 2017, 02:19:05 AM »
Will High pressure for next 30 days improve or disimprove sea ice? Seems a long settled spell on the way so minuses will surely thicken ice though I know thats an extremely nieve statement.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2865 on: February 19, 2017, 03:17:29 AM »
High pressure might dominate the Arctic another 10 to 14 days at the most. Concentration has improved already and volume, but it won't be for long. Storms can undo so much in so little time.
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Cid_Yama

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2866 on: February 19, 2017, 03:48:49 AM »
Using the reanalysis, we can calculate also the mean of the downward radiation flux...
So, what if we try with the precipitable water?
It looks way better...

I will not try an argument about chickens and eggs. It is of course difficult to disentangled all the mechanisms ongoing. But at least the increasing of water vapor, linked to warming of the temperatures but also to the decrease of Arctic sea ice, is increasing downward radiations.

The major point is that a warming of 20°C or 30°C is not impossible at surface is thus not impossible. With global warming, the "thin" -a 2 km thick and 20°C inversion is massive for an inversion in the absolute, but compared to the whole atmosphere this it is not so thick nor so cold- the "thin" layer of permanent inversion is set to be destroyed, with only marginal warming above. Usually there is around 5 to 10°C between surface and 850 hPa. Even a 7-8°C lapse rate with a 850 hPa layer around 250K would imply a mean surface temperature a bit below 260K, around -15°C, barely enough cold for sea ice.
Wow thanks for that piece of work! Isn't there something remotely similar published out there?
Pretty scary conclusions.
A significant cause behind what we are seeing hiding right in front of is in broad daylight.  What aslan has demonstrated is a specific cascading feedback mechanism which I suspect is missing from most if not all model's computations.  If it is, I suspect it has not been modelled effectively enough, as it may be we are seeing a complete dynamic that's neither fully understood or been closely observed.

It may be there are relevant papers we haven't seen, and yes, this implies a pretty scary feedback and an implied tipping point.  If ice drops much below 3M KM2, the additional heat uptake and H2O being injected into the atmosphere combined with that being imported from steady less dramatic changes further south may translate to a rapid state change in atmospheric circulation that no one has envisioned.

The short ride to to that new state will likely be very bumpy.

Yes.  We aren't saying what we know to be coming.  But we watched continuously this winter, as each new milestone has been passed.  To beat the dead horse, we aren't in Kansas anymore.

I had a heart attack January 1st, and all I could think was no not yet, It's just about to happen, please just let me have another year.  God, I don't want to miss this.

To be here to witness the abrupt changes that haven't happened in millions of years, and even perhaps unique to this event.  I live in awe.     

"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2867 on: February 19, 2017, 04:30:13 AM »
@Cid_Yama

Much more on the subject in the new thread.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1885.msg103766.html#msg103766
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Villabolo

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2868 on: February 19, 2017, 04:39:20 AM »
Quote
Cid_Yama

I had a heart attack January 1st, and all I could think was no not yet, It's just about to happen, please just let me have another year.  God, I don't want to miss this.

Hang in there Cid. I don't want to miss it either.

I have about twenty years left and I know how bad it's going to get as the decade plays out.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2869 on: February 19, 2017, 04:58:19 AM »
Best wishes CID. Strength and health..

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2870 on: February 19, 2017, 05:23:08 AM »
Pretty strong storm setting up between the North Pole and Svalbard, about 18 hours out.
MSLP predicted to initially drop to 984 hpa, but it appears it will have a strong in-flow and will interact with other nearby systems, causing very wide wind fields. It is interesting that high pressure still persists over the Pacific side, but despite that, how much damage will befall the ice in this area near the pole? The center of circulation will be directly over some warm waters that are not far below the surface.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2871 on: February 19, 2017, 07:12:29 AM »
It's a mighty albeit smaller cyclone with around 24 hours of core winds over 50km sure to locally chew up the ice and hasten fram export already in progress. Also i'm noticing how, for the next 48 hours +, the extension of the wind field TT mentions will further disperse ice in the Greenland Sea.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2872 on: February 19, 2017, 10:36:46 AM »
It's a mighty albeit smaller cyclone with around 24 hours of core winds over 50km sure to locally chew up the ice and hasten fram export already in progress. Also i'm noticing how, for the next 48 hours +, the extension of the wind field TT mentions will further disperse ice in the Greenland Sea.

Yep, wind is picking up speed north of Svalbard. Let's see after some time satellite pictures before and after.

JayW

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2873 on: February 19, 2017, 11:45:09 AM »
Try this again, edit, I can't figure out why the gif won't run

Bering Strait feb 13-19

VIIRS I05 band from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks

See if this one works
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2874 on: February 19, 2017, 12:33:28 PM »
That gives a glimpse of the old CAB. All that export, and yet concentration and volume both are growing. I don't have any false hopes that it will last, but it's good for it to have at least one last hoorah for the season.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2875 on: February 19, 2017, 12:43:11 PM »
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Barents and Laptev barely letting some ice to form...
It's the sea. Warm seas. 4,2 kJ/kg*C. Multiply that by 10- 12 in some places.
That's what is missing to even start a 334 kJ/kg freezing process.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2876 on: February 19, 2017, 01:22:46 PM »
That gives a glimpse of the old CAB. All that export, and yet concentration and volume both are growing. I don't have any false hopes that it will last, but it's good for it to have at least one last hoorah for the season.

While I don't doubt volume should increase with the colder weather I find it hard to believe volume is greater than this time last year when FDDs this season are 20% lower than at the same time last year, at least above 80N. Could all the snow on the ice be fooling the instruments?

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2877 on: February 19, 2017, 03:24:16 PM »
That gives a glimpse of the old CAB. All that export, and yet concentration and volume both are growing. I don't have any false hopes that it will last, but it's good for it to have at least one last hoorah for the season.

While I don't doubt volume should increase with the colder weather I find it hard to believe volume is greater than this time last year when FDDs this season are 20% lower than at the same time last year, at least above 80N. Could all the snow on t3he ice be fooling the instruments?
TT you put too much confidence in that product.
I really like that JAXA thickness map, it indicates tendencies especially in the edge of the pack, where melt is happening etc, but see yourself the unrealistic fluctuations in the graph... maybe too sensitive to air temperature changes, snow, etc?
Said so, volume may not be far from last year's, there are other factors apart from FDDs
Laptev sea ice is thin because winds have been stripping ice off the sea surface continuously for two months, and new sea ice is formed immediately. The ice seems thin not because of the heat from beneath or above or anywhere, but because it is being reformed continuously. The stripped ice seems to be accumulating in the ESS. That is some creation of ice that the FDDs wont explain.
Ice in Barentsz sea is finally gaining some area (I thought it was gone for good) there you have more ice not following the formula.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 03:38:00 PM by seaicesailor »

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2878 on: February 19, 2017, 03:26:23 PM »
Temperatures at the North Pole Arctic are actually slightly below average. I thought a screenshot was worth it. Who knows when will we see this again.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2879 on: February 19, 2017, 03:50:48 PM »
TT you put too much confidence in that product.
I guess you mean the Wipneus chart derived from JAXA data. It comes into use. But I look at several products combined with common sense to make a conclusion. It is obvious that the growth has been on the Pacific side in every product you look at, and it has been cold enough. One more concentration chart that I like is this, updated on the University of Bremen site.
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

P.S. I think you may have read a little more into what I said than what what I actually meant.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 03:58:22 PM by Tigertown »
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2880 on: February 19, 2017, 04:08:16 PM »
TT you put too much confidence in that product.
I guess you mean the Wipneus chart derived from JAXA data. It comes into use. But I look at several products combined with common sense to make a conclusion...
I know, sorry if I sounded condescending.
Wipneus calculations are reliable, what I mean is the ice thickness from ADS NIPR or JAXA is not. It gives valid information but varies at the mercy of air temperature fluctuations, precipitation, and who knows. My honest opinion.
Below the averaged isobars for the next five days. Sustained transpolar drift, 40 or 50 km of accumulated drift at the Pole during these five days, make it double or triple around Fram and Svalbard, with that storm coming. A bad moment for the ice pack be broken into hundreds of floes.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2881 on: February 19, 2017, 04:37:45 PM »
@seaicesailor
I hear you. There are days, when I know the conditions have been wrong, and look at a chart and say, no way! I would not put a whole lot of confidence in the sheer amount of volume right this moment, so much as the trend. Even with the right conditions in part of the Arctic, movement that stirs up heat from below will negate FDD's in that area.

P.S.  The PV is forecast to split in a few days and by the end of the month the positive temperature anomalies will start to take back over the Arctic.
GFS Feb. 28th
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 05:02:17 PM by Tigertown »
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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2882 on: February 19, 2017, 10:29:50 PM »
Might that high cause a cracking event (albeit not as big as the one in 2013)?
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2883 on: February 19, 2017, 11:37:39 PM »
Might that high cause a cracking event (albeit not as big as the one in 2013)?
It will be interesting to evolve toward the summer with similar FYI (although thinner) in the Pacific half of the Arctic as 2013 but a different weather.
To start with the departure, early opening along the Alaskan coasts in Feb-April like last year rather than cracks in the middle of the pack. I guess the strong high forecasted can cause either. But the ice is still really thin in some areas of Beaufort sea particularly close to Barrow point

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2884 on: February 20, 2017, 01:43:18 AM »
Will the temperature above 80 make it to the baseline? Maybe the circled "hot" air intrusion delays it a bit, but it looks good so far. This late freeze might give us the head start needed for the melting season.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2885 on: February 20, 2017, 03:01:16 AM »
The Bering Sea has a storm that is attacking the exported ice there with warm wind and waves. It looks as if it will last a couple days at least.

Correction: It looks like it will last about five days and will decimate the exported ice there.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 03:11:12 AM by Tigertown »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2886 on: February 20, 2017, 01:37:31 PM »
Will the temperature above 80 make it to the baseline? Maybe the circled "hot" air intrusion delays it a bit, but it looks good so far. This late freeze might give us the head start needed for the melting season.
It doesn't seem like temps will go much below the old average for tthe date,, whereas big cold anomalies are required IMO, And if high pressure lingers more than a month, it won't be good - the sun will be higher in the sky

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2887 on: February 20, 2017, 03:43:47 PM »
Might that high cause a cracking event (albeit not as big as the one in 2013)?
It will be interesting to evolve toward the summer with similar FYI (although thinner) in the Pacific half of the Arctic as 2013 but a different weather.
To start with the departure, early opening along the Alaskan coasts in Feb-April like last year rather than cracks in the middle of the pack. I guess the strong high forecasted can cause either. But the ice is still really thin in some areas of Beaufort sea particularly close to Barrow point
Coincidentally, the high pressure system will produce significative winds in reaching the NorthWest corner of Alaska. These are day three to six of the latest ECMWF:

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2888 on: February 20, 2017, 06:03:15 PM »
Will the temperature above 80 make it to the baseline? Maybe the circled "hot" air intrusion delays it a bit, but it looks good so far. This late freeze might give us the head start needed for the melting season.

Eh, the forecasts attached to Neven's blog show the arctic warming up again from about Thursday onwards. Not nearly enough time to make up for freezing opportunities lost.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 12:40:05 PM by Paddy »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2889 on: February 20, 2017, 06:06:42 PM »
We have wind about 16 m/s north of Greenland (earth.nullschool) until Tue evening (direction Fram Strait). I compared today vs yesterday, we can see storm system entering from north of Svalbard and cracks are widening as far as Lincoln Sea. Images: https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2890 on: February 20, 2017, 08:15:29 PM »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2891 on: February 20, 2017, 08:35:00 PM »
Pity there's only about 7 weeks left  for the ice to thicken.  That said, long term projections suggest the heat will be back in force in about a week.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2892 on: February 21, 2017, 07:09:16 PM »
Mind You all, that this temperature baseline is either 1958- 2004 (DMI) or 1979- 2000 (cci-reanalyzer).
So, it's already higher than a normal, natural baseline would be.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2893 on: February 21, 2017, 08:08:42 PM »
Casual prediction: Extent to peak by the end of February. (Relatively high temperatures forecast over the current ice edges this week plus the aforementioned long term forecasts of heat coming back into force).

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2894 on: February 21, 2017, 08:11:57 PM »
ACNFS now picks the effect of the high forecasted over the Pacific side of the Arctic for the next six days. We may see open water near Barrow and maybe Amundsen bay. Curiously, the big gap that had opened in January in ESS will be stuffed with thicker ice now.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2895 on: February 21, 2017, 08:21:48 PM »
Look at that sustained Fram export btw, and to balance, the losses in Bering sea.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2896 on: February 21, 2017, 10:31:30 PM »
It's been storming in the Bering Sea for a couple days now and it will get worse for the next few days, with high wind and waves. The wind is steadily guiding the ice into the rough waters.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2897 on: February 21, 2017, 11:58:48 PM »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2898 on: February 22, 2017, 02:25:21 AM »
It will be interesting to evolve toward the summer with similar FYI (although thinner) in the Pacific half of the Arctic as 2013 but a different weather.
To start with the departure, early opening along the Alaskan coasts in Feb-April like last year rather than cracks in the middle of the pack. I guess the strong high forecasted can cause either. But the ice is still really thin in some areas of Beaufort sea particularly close to Barrow point

Not sure how reliable this product is, but it confirms what you say that ice in western arctic is generally thinner than last year. Parts that are thicker include much of the western part of NW passage, meaning it may remain closed longer than last year or remain closed altogether in 2017.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2899 on: February 22, 2017, 03:05:12 AM »
Can't make out picture. I see horizon but can't make out condition of ice.