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ghoti

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2900 on: February 22, 2017, 03:10:27 AM »
Solid :P

Temperature readings on the buoy are -30C

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2901 on: February 22, 2017, 06:56:51 AM »
March doesn't look like it is going to be ice friendly.
March 1st(more blue over the CAB)  to March 5th

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2902 on: February 22, 2017, 07:07:23 AM »
March doesn't look like it is going to be ice friendly.
March 1st(more blue over the CAB)  to March 5th


It might be the consequence of SSW in the following days.

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2903 on: February 22, 2017, 10:13:55 AM »
Not sure how reliable this product is, but it confirms what you say that ice in western arctic is generally thinner than last year. Parts that are thicker include much of the western part of NW passage, meaning it may remain closed longer than last year or remain closed altogether in 2017.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

The product is highly unreliable, in my view. Better look at PIOMAS and or CryoSat-2 (although they are currently diverging).

Only if the weather this summer is relatively cold and cloudy, will the NWP stay closed. Average weather and it will open for sure, as it has done most of the time in the past 10-12 years.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2904 on: February 22, 2017, 02:24:13 PM »
A glimpse of the current state of the East Siberian Sea from Terra, with just a hint of added infra-red:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#ESS
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2905 on: February 22, 2017, 06:58:43 PM »
It will be interesting to evolve toward the summer with similar FYI (although thinner) in the Pacific half of the Arctic as 2013 but a different weather.
To start with the departure, early opening along the Alaskan coasts in Feb-April like last year rather than cracks in the middle of the pack. I guess the strong high forecasted can cause either. But the ice is still really thin in some areas of Beaufort sea particularly close to Barrow point

Not sure how reliable this product is, but it confirms what you say that ice in western arctic is generally thinner than last year. Parts that are thicker include much of the western part of NW passage, meaning it may remain closed longer than last year or remain closed altogether in 2017.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
DMI is one of my favorite sources. I'd caution against extrapolating from thickness to any end of season state of the NWP.  It has melted out with far, far thicker ice in place.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2906 on: February 22, 2017, 07:15:54 PM »
I've had a couple of suspected 'concern trolls' try and start issues by introducing that particular thickness map? If you always use it you can probably extrapolate from it but it generally appears out of whack with other sources and at times will show thick ice where no other site even hints at it?

The same folk would always use the old DMI extent/area plots to try and stir up bother? Since we've all grown over the years such antics have all but disappeared but that DMI thickness map will always get a push when they feel like stirring up a thread?
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2907 on: February 22, 2017, 10:40:04 PM »
I have had a tremendous headache today from trolls citing fake news that the Antarctic and Arctic Sea ice have grown larger and improving. It makes me feel even more pain when I show NASA  image of the exposed Ross Ice Shelf 19.02.2017 now facing the ice-free Ross Sea without any hint of sea ice.

Liberated from Ice: The Ross Sea and its ice shelf on Sunday, 19th February 2017:
https://gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov/image-download?TIME=2017050&extent=-2478080,-2725888,1712128,-83968&epsg=3031&layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&opacities=1,1&worldfile=false&format=image/jpeg&width=818&height=516

Whatever rationale you try to tell showing a plain satellite photo of sea taken by NASA when there are cloudless sky over the black Ross Sea. The reply to this I get back is that NASA fakes its photos to make sea ice disappear, claiming that the sea ice is not only existing there but growing (sic.) if not at record levels. I told that was year or two ago, which is dismissed.

I got the same reply for both Arctic as well as Antarctic that there is lots of sea ice growth right now... and sea ice condition is just improving. How far from truth and reality these Trumpist trolls are. The Arctic sea ice cannot be too good either according to this satellite image showing a vast sea ice transport, pulverization and melting area between Greenland and Jan Mayen.

The Fram Strait on Wednesday, 22nd February 2017 and its massive sea ice transport:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-02-22&z=3&v=789275.9468363782,-1418077.1149003317,1051419.9468363782,-1252957.1149003317

It seems this is the first NASA Worldview image of the Arctic Sea Ice this season 2016/2017.

be cause

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2908 on: February 23, 2017, 02:28:33 AM »
the Dmi 80' temp. is currently lower than any time in the last 750 days ! Yet it still above the mean .. taking full advantage of the minimum :)
It looks like cold will dominate in the coming days although this is probably the coldest atm .. will we ever be back at these temps again ?
 
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2909 on: February 23, 2017, 06:17:29 AM »
Thought I would give this old thread a bump before it died completely.

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2910 on: February 23, 2017, 06:27:15 AM »
Interesting colour pallet.  The Wrangle Arm seems to persist in situ with colours suggesting thinner ice surrounded by 200 cm stuff swirling about.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2911 on: February 23, 2017, 06:58:18 AM »
Interesting colour pallet.  The Wrangle Arm seems to persist in situ with colours suggesting thinner ice surrounded by 200 cm stuff swirling about.
I have doubts, like others, about the accuracy of their calibrations, but this model gives a good overall picture of what is happening. Also, it shows export really well, probably better than their concentration imagining. Other than that, I think it is a little on the thick side.

ipexnet

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2912 on: February 23, 2017, 08:26:41 AM »
Another lurker who has read this blog for years. This topic is dead. The melt has begun. The past 2 days have seen some serious ice disruption (satellite visual imagery). I have not yet checked the daily image posts, but likely some eye openers for everyone.

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2913 on: February 23, 2017, 09:20:35 AM »
Welcome, ipexnet, your profile has been released.

The melting season officially starts when the maximum has been reached. We're not quite there yet, but for those who can't contain themselves, I have re-opened the 2017 melting season thread. Also because I will be travelling next week, and might not have time to do it when the maximum hits.
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Meirion

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2914 on: February 23, 2017, 10:02:49 AM »
It really is that simple and we won't know for sure till about 10 days after it has happened

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2915 on: February 23, 2017, 12:18:39 PM »
While volume increases there is net freezing even if extent and area at the periphery are decreasing. So this lurker awaits the PIOMAS analysis for Feb, Mar and Apr. Then this lurker will come to his totally unscientific conclusion as to the extent winter sea ice is now compromised.
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meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2916 on: February 23, 2017, 12:37:27 PM »
High temps in the Arctic since dec 27th 2015:

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2917 on: February 23, 2017, 01:14:56 PM »
I am not trying to start a conversation about it here, as we have a thread for it, but just so everyone knows; the PV has split and will soon start to weaken. The positive temp. anomalies will start to creep back into the Arctic, just as the forecast shows.

shmengie

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2918 on: February 23, 2017, 01:19:48 PM »
It seems this time of year is good for a dip (in temp, not a dip in the water) @ n80.
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2919 on: February 23, 2017, 01:49:32 PM »
It seems this time of year is good for a dip (in temp, not a dip in the water) @ n80.

The last hurrah?

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2920 on: February 23, 2017, 04:26:54 PM »
Another lurker who has read this blog for years. This topic is dead. The melt has begun. The past 2 days have seen some serious ice disruption (satellite visual imagery). I have not yet checked the daily image posts, but likely some eye openers for everyone.
sea ice grows from the bottom until summer (for most of the Arctic ocean)
melt has never really stopped this season, the effect of the Atlantic currents flowing by the north of Svalbard is really strong.
 http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg101832.html#msg101832

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2921 on: February 23, 2017, 08:59:33 PM »
We remain on topic here :)
ECMWF and GFS show just a meager warming of Western and Central Arctic within the next 7 days. Even gets some cold air displaced from Greenland and Siberia.
However the Atlantic side gets blasted once again.

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2922 on: February 23, 2017, 11:06:57 PM »
So close, but no cigar. Maybe after the next heat wave.
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idunno

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2923 on: February 23, 2017, 11:12:34 PM »
Yesterday was the coldest day in the Arctic for 2 years?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Perhaps not the best moment for declaring the 2016/17 freezing season finished, and the 2017 melting season begun? Yet that seems to have happened on this forum?


Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2924 on: February 23, 2017, 11:22:43 PM »

Perhaps not the best moment for declaring the 2016/17 freezing season finished, and the 2017 melting season begun? Yet that seems to have happened on this forum?



I don't think that has been "oficially" declared. I think the melt season thread was opened because  Max extent could be reached at anytime now, and there is a chance that it was already reached. Keeping both threads opened during this transition time let members decide if we are still in the freezing season or the melting one. I like the concept. 
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2925 on: February 23, 2017, 11:51:26 PM »
The Beaufort and Chukchi seas will be entering March completely devoid of multi year ice, in danger of a swift runaway of meltout. Will it happen this year?
A reactivation of the Gyre would bring MYI from the CAB but also openings along the coast with bad consequences. A more static situation leaves us with thickening FYI and no open waters... interesting.
ACNFS predicts for the 28th some modest detachment of drifting ice from the coasts West of Barrow, nothing more, but we'll see, ice looks fragile. Thickening progressing fast now. It is pretty early yet.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2926 on: February 24, 2017, 01:49:53 AM »
I have re-opened the 2017 melting season thread.

I am forced to admit that I did start to speculate recently  :-[

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-maximum-extent/

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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2927 on: February 24, 2017, 06:02:00 AM »
The Beaufort and Chukchi seas will be entering March completely devoid of multi year ice, in danger of a swift runaway of meltout. Will it happen this year?
A reactivation of the Gyre would bring MYI from the CAB but also openings along the coast with bad consequences. A more static situation leaves us with thickening FYI and no open waters... interesting.
ACNFS predicts for the 28th some modest detachment of drifting ice from the coasts West of Barrow, nothing more, but we'll see, ice looks fragile. Thickening progressing fast now. It is pretty early yet.
I'm aghast looking at that image - 90+ % of the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi is *well* under 2M thickness, and a major slug of that under 1.5M.  We have about 4 weeks of opportunity for weather to be cold enough for the ice to thicken - in water that much of which has been between 1/4 - 1/2C degree warmer than normal per NOAA.

Under the most optimal of conditions I'd expect at most about 30CM of growth at this juncture, but I'm anticipating far less than that.  Consider also that both the Beaufort and Chukchi are much further south than the Atlantic side, and much of the region is already getting over 8 hours of daily sunlight.  In short, the thermodynamics there have already shifted against the ice.   I'd be surprised if we got 10CM of thickening, much less 30.

QED - in 3-4 weeks time if we get any sort of significant wind event, I predict the entire extent of the Chukchi and Beaufort will be torn to shreds in ways we haven't previously seen until May or June, and it won't recover, nor will ice re-cover the leads opened up.  I predict the water opened up will both significantly shift the heat uptake such that we'll see early melt ponding, or just simply large areas of thin ice just being beaten into slush.  I expect by the middle of May, we may see  areas of open extent on a par with what has been seen in late June and July in previous years.  Import of MYI from near the CAA won't help; there's not enough of it.

TL;DR
- by the Equinox, I expect to see the beginning of a cascading failure starting in the Bering and Chukchi and by dint of that, rapidly spreading to the Beaufort in its entirety, with the effect of accelerating the melt season by at least 2 and possibly 4 weeks.  I expect it will go downhill from there.
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slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2928 on: February 24, 2017, 06:37:21 AM »
For comparison, it would be great to see ACNFS maps for the same dates in previous years. Are any available? Or that other Canadian sea ice map?

Does either have a map archive on their web page?

I had a quick skim of last year's freezing season thread,
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.500.html
and couldn't immediately see a corresponding map.

Shouldn't those maps in particular give about the best information available on whether the Beaufort sea ice is in better or worse condition than last year?





As consolation, here's a gif Neven did of the Atlantic side about a year ago, taken from last year's thread. The ice around Svalbard wasn't in good shape then either...
It seems that it is now (almost?) possible to circumnavigate Svalbard. It is a little early for that, isn't it?

Nah, we're not impressed by that one anymore. Circumnavigating Svalbard AND Franz Josef Land, however, is a different cookie:  ;)




Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2929 on: February 24, 2017, 09:31:36 AM »
For comparison, it would be great to see ACNFS maps for the same dates in previous years. Are any available?

The ACNFS archive going back to 2014 is at:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/beaufort.html
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slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2930 on: February 24, 2017, 11:29:13 AM »
Thanks Jim, appreciated.

2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014 sea ice in the Beaufort compared by ACNFS for 23 February...

The code version has changed between years, and the colour palette has slightly. But the difference this year is still striking! :o


Now it really would be nice to also check this using the Canadian maps for the Beaufort!
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 11:35:17 AM by slow wing »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2931 on: February 24, 2017, 01:09:48 PM »
Now it really would be nice to also check this using the Canadian maps for the Beaufort!

Here you go:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#CIS-Devel
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iceman

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2932 on: February 24, 2017, 02:57:14 PM »
The Beaufort and Chukchi seas will be entering March completely devoid of multi year ice, in danger of a swift runaway of meltout. Will it happen this year?
A reactivation of the Gyre would bring MYI from the CAB but also openings along the coast with bad consequences. A more static situation leaves us with thickening FYI and no open waters... interesting.
ACNFS predicts for the 28th some modest detachment of drifting ice from the coasts West of Barrow, nothing more, but we'll see, ice looks fragile. Thickening progressing fast now. It is pretty early yet.
   ....
QED - in 3-4 weeks time if we get any sort of significant wind event, I predict the entire extent of the Chukchi and Beaufort will be torn to shreds in ways we haven't previously seen until May or June, and it won't recover, nor will ice re-cover the leads opened up.  I predict the water opened up will both significantly shift the heat uptake such that we'll see early melt ponding, or just simply large areas of thin ice just being beaten into slush.  I expect by the middle of May, we may see  areas of open extent on a par with what has been seen in late June and July in previous years.  Import of MYI from near the CAA won't help; there's not enough of it.
   ....

Even absent a wind event with the consequences you describe, with such an expanse of FYI, early and widespread melt ponding could be devastating.

meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2933 on: February 24, 2017, 03:49:41 PM »
A lot of Volume missing in the Beaufort and Chukchi.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2934 on: February 24, 2017, 04:19:24 PM »
Another striking feature of these four years is the state of ice winding its way through the CAA. I fear the CAA "Garlic Press" may become a persistent feature of our melt seasons which does not bode well for the thickest ice just north of the CAA. We may have seen the last year that any substantial amount of thick MYI migrates into the Beaufort.

slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2935 on: February 24, 2017, 10:59:30 PM »
Thanks again, Jim. Canadian Ice Service have a superb website,
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En, with a fine archive facility, retrieving ice charts at:
http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Archive/page1.xhtml?lang=en.

From the options tables, I selected:
Weekly Regional Ice Charts - WMO Colour (2003 - 2017)
Western Arctic Regional
... and saved to zip the weekly charts for around this date for each of the past 8 years (files end in "SD'), as follows (latest to earliest year)...

slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2936 on: February 24, 2017, 11:02:36 PM »
Above was the charts closest to 20 February for 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014; now the same for
2013, 2012, 2011 and 2010...


slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2937 on: February 24, 2017, 11:22:14 PM »
Some explanation on how to read the charts.

Canadian Ice Service has a detailed explanation in their online Manual of Ice (MANICE), the most relevant page of which is the start of Chapter 3: Observed Ice Charts, at http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=2CE448E2-1&offset=6&toc=show.

Briefly, the little "Egg Code" number charts are very helpful in giving the concentration, stage of development (e.g. "First stage thin first-year,   30 - 50 centimetres") and form (e.g. "Big floe,   500 - 2,000 metres") of each designated local region of ice.

The most relevant colour coding for us is:
'light olive' = thin first year ice, 30-70 cm thick
light green = medium first year ice, 70-120 cm thick
dark green = thick first year ice, >120 cm thick
brown = older than first year ice.

Here is a map of the Western Arctic region displayed ...



DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2938 on: February 24, 2017, 11:29:47 PM »
Striking....

slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2939 on: February 24, 2017, 11:32:48 PM »
4/4 It is seen that this year stands out in having the least multi-year ice (brown) in the region and easily the most light green, which is first year ice of 70-120 cm thick - presumably too thin at the moment to stand much chance of surviving the next melt season.

Shared Humanity also has a good point about the CAA now turning into a sink (the 'garlic press', as Neven has coined) rather than a sanctuary for thicker multi-year ice.


So the Beaufort Sea looks in trouble this season.


Concerning a wider view of the Arctic ice, it's helpful to have this region with detailed charts that are presumably reliable. These can be used for assessing and maybe even cross calibrating some of the other ice maps that show the entire Arctic Basin.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2940 on: February 25, 2017, 03:08:54 AM »
Beaufort sea definitely in trouble.

There are also more detailed charts available presumably of locations that have been commonly choked by ice during shipping season, as well as the wider maps of Hudson and eastern/western Arctic. Here's the latest eastern (Canadian) Arctic weekly map.

Couple of additional colors are the various pinks to violets showing areas of new, snowless or top-melting areas which turns the frosty or snowy ice to various shades of gray (mainly albedo, you cannot tell by color which is solid party top-melted and which is rotten.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 05:52:10 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

misanthroptimist

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2941 on: February 25, 2017, 06:33:42 AM »
Thanks again, Jim. Canadian Ice Service have a superb website,

From the options tables, I selected:
Weekly Regional Ice Charts - WMO Colour (2003 - 2017)
Western Arctic Regional
... and saved to zip the weekly charts for around this date for each of the past 8 years (files end in "SD'), as follows (latest to earliest year)...
Those maps are astonishingly problematic for those of us who are colorblind. The "eggs" are extremely helpful, though.

FYI to the map/graphic makers of the world: Red-green colorblindness is the most common form of colorblindness. I respectfully request that that be taken into account...somehow. :)

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2942 on: February 25, 2017, 07:00:53 AM »
Those maps are astonishingly problematic for those of us who are colorblind. The "eggs" are extremely helpful, though.


Many of the 'reds' have an X in the rightmost low corner of the 'egg' , but not all of them, I'm afraid. Possibly the colors are tradition from way back when...

The eggs anyway have more info than colors.

(modded: tried a bit to mod the colors on the Canadian maps but clearly there's so much info on the 'egg code' some forward planning is required. And anyway the longitudes/latitudes are visible on the map so they create a gaps between simple color replacement tool...

and after removing red and green channel realized going grayscale might be best in this case...)
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 09:05:46 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Cate

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2943 on: February 25, 2017, 01:11:53 PM »
Re the problem of colours on Canadian Ice Service maps: maybe use the contact form on their website to suggest improvements/modifications for colour-blindness.

JayW

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2944 on: February 25, 2017, 02:46:43 PM »
Feb 19-25 144hr loop, pretty neat watching the orientation of fracturing change as the motion changes.

Imagery courtesy of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks as airways.

VIIRS I05 band

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/snpp-gina-alaska-i05-images?search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B14%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2945 on: February 25, 2017, 11:24:53 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2946 on: February 26, 2017, 11:17:54 AM »
[EDIT: I redid this post as I was dissatisfied with my original characterisation of the 2009 charts]

1/2
Had further look at the archived Canadian Ice Service(CIS) sea ice charts for the Beaufort Sea. Previously, I had only looked back to 2010 whereas the archive goes back to 2004.

It turns out that the 2009 Beaufort ice also looked fairly weak at this time of year - the weakest in the archive outside of this year.  (The years earlier than 2009, however, had considerably more thick ice than this year.)

  As one historical surrogate then for the potential Beaufort sea ice development this melt season, the 2009 progress of the Beaufort ice can be examined for through the end of the freeze season and then for the melt season. On inspection, it turns out the 2009 Beaufort ice continued to thicken until at least mid-March and most survived well into July.

The relevant charts from the CIS archive follow, for dates in this order:
2017-02-20 (repost) - the ice condition this year; note all the light green = 1st year ice <120cm thick
2009-02-16 - note that 2009 also had a lot of light green around mid-February
2009-03-16 - one month later, the light green has ~all gone dark = >120 cm
2009-07-13 - the Beaufort hadn't melted out much by mid-July 2009
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 11:07:49 PM by slow wing »

slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2947 on: February 26, 2017, 11:27:49 PM »
2/2 (needed a second post due to 4 attachment limit)

Continuing with inspecting the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) charts of the 2009 melt season in the West Arctic, which corresponds roughly to the Beaufort Sea as well as some of CAB between the Beaufort and the North Pole. Recall from the posts above that the sea ice in the West Arctic currently (late February) looks worst in the CIS archives and that 2009 looks the second worst.

  It turns out that the first year ice mostly melted out anyway by the end of the 2009 melt season in the West Arctic, but much of the multi-year ice survived.


  So that gives us some idea of what might happen again in the West Arctic this year, in the scenario of similar weather to 2009 over the next several months. Unsurprisingly, the Beaufort Sea will melt right out. But the multi-year ice North of that could survive.


  In the alternative scenario that the stormier weather of 2016-7 persists into the 2017 melt season, then much of the multi-year ice currently in the West Arctic may also be lost, due to transport by the wind into either the CAA 'garlic press' or into a Beaufort Sea 'kill zone' that has already melted out.

Attached: Canadian Ice Service chart for West Arctic on 2009-09-28.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 11:38:10 PM by slow wing »

Pragma

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2948 on: February 27, 2017, 12:27:21 AM »
2016/2017 has been a wild ride and like many others here, I have been intensely curious as to how much of these wild swings can be attributed to natural chaotic variation and how much indicates a state change.

I have done some "back of the envelope" modeling regarding the excess energy that is becoming available due both to albedo shift and the fact that there is simply a lot less ice to melt each year. The results worried me but I'm not confident enough to post them.

As a bit of a sanity check, I have been trying to find a credible source that addresses large temperature changes in a very short time span. I think the following might be of interest to other on the forum.



It is from the December 2014 AGU meeting, and I found the information very sobering.

meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #2949 on: February 27, 2017, 12:47:09 PM »
That 2014 AGU Guy is a Joke.

He just goes on to say- without any scientific proof- that there "has to be" a negative feedback on methane release. "Has to be" is rather a term used by politicians, lawyers or philosophers, economists, poets.

Most (well- paid) mainstream scientists still can not admit, that there's nothing that can be done against the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics to reverse current exponential processes.
I guess, they also have kids, too- so that's the other reason why they are not able to go there.
And, third- apart from lifting up a pen- I guess they are not really familiar with hard work. So, if the admission would lead to none of Your work is actually required anymore (cause You can not to anything to reverse it- except come up with more data about the ominous, that's going on)- their easy life would just go away.