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Author Topic: The 2016/2017 freezing season  (Read 628710 times)

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3050 on: March 09, 2017, 03:58:55 PM »
Environmental science saved the ozone layer. Slashing Chloro-flourcarbon emissions also reduced GHG levels. Unfortunately, fossil fuel companies have resisted effective global  action to slash CO2 and CH4 emissions.

You know, this political stuff is off topic. But if you are going to go off topic, at least, get your basic facts right.

As for the Arctic there is more atmospheric blocking in eastern Siberia bringing heat and storms to the central Arctic. The blocking has links to the stratospheric warming that happened at the end of February. The polar vortex has been repeatedly offset towards Europe this winter and the blocking highs in Aleutians around the dateline have been persistent. Thus the Arctic has been unable to contain its cold air - not good for sea ice thickness.

One thing that climate and environmental science in general (and the environment itself) is, is global. Who knows what the consequences will be if Trump succeeds in ripping apart the US environmental science fabric.

What has this "climate and environmental science" effectively done to reverse ANYTHING?

We can only be observers as this runaway train is speeding into the abyss.
Of course, You're free to believe You can shout at the tide not to come in- by coming up with more and more observational data.
Or blame one particular leader.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3051 on: March 09, 2017, 04:55:33 PM »
You know, this political stuff is off topic.

I don't think that's going to matter with this thread, as it seems the whole thread is about to be off topic. That is, of course, if the forecast holds true. Besides, it is not really OT when you tie in that way, showing how those political decisions specifically affected this freezing season.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 05:00:43 PM by Tigertown »

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3052 on: March 09, 2017, 05:10:24 PM »
Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.



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Darvince

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3053 on: March 09, 2017, 05:23:05 PM »
The whole pack is about to be spun:


iceman

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3054 on: March 10, 2017, 01:34:23 PM »
Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

A thousand thanks.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3055 on: March 10, 2017, 05:09:33 PM »
The whole pack is about to be spun:


This is a pattern that has become increasingly common over the past few years IIRC. A high will set up over Greenland and then lows come in from the North Atlantic and spin through the Barents into the CAB. I think this is the new normal and a significant contributor to the new climate regime in the Arctic, a warm, humid, stormy world.

Darvince

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3056 on: March 11, 2017, 02:54:47 PM »
Most of the lows that come in through the North Atlantic dissipate over the ice pack, however this one rapidly intensifies over the ESS and then continues towards the pole while broadening.

jgnfld

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3057 on: March 12, 2017, 03:52:27 PM »
Certainly spun up here in St. John's Newfoundland. Pressure in town went down to near 960 mbars and wind gusts peaked at 160 kph (100mph) WELL above forecast values.

Track looks to go east more in this case, however.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 07:31:13 PM by jgnfld »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3058 on: March 13, 2017, 10:22:20 PM »
DMI now shows temperatures back up 5-7C above normal (250-255K). It is now too late for cold temperatures to permit a recovery in volume.

In another 10 days we start the sharp spring climb in temperatures as the sun returns.  The current and coming storms pretty much preclude any serious return of cold weather.

What we have is about what we are going to get, ice-wise.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3059 on: March 18, 2017, 02:52:55 AM »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3060 on: March 18, 2017, 08:33:30 AM »
Is this the lowest of the highs on record?


This is for the NSIDC daily numbers rather than the 5 day average, but yes:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-maximum-extent/#Mar-18
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3061 on: March 18, 2017, 11:44:28 AM »
Is this the lowest of the highs on record?


Time to close shop in this thread.

This is for the NSIDC daily numbers rather than the 5 day average, but yes:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/02/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-maximum-extent/#Mar-18
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3062 on: March 18, 2017, 04:43:02 PM »
...
Time to close shop in this thread.
I think I extracted what DrTskoul wrote.  (Remember to write comments and responses before the first "[ quote]" or after the last "[ /quote]".)

Just because maximum extent has been reached does not mean the freezing season has ended.  Max extent and area just mean southern edge-melting exceeds northern edge freezing (and there aren't many northern edges to freeze, given the land-bound nature of the Arctic Ocean).

Arctic ice volume, historically, has continued to grow until April, and that means northern freezing continues to exceed southern melting.  Even in May and early June the high Arctic ice continues to thicken (freeze), while net Arctic ice volume decreases.

Even though isolated locations and days during the NH summer (after June 21st, as defined in the good ol' U.S.A.) have actual freezing events, I  think only denialists and their ilk would claim this is proof the NH freezing season continues then.

At some point, of course, this thread will be forgotten and comments about continued freezing will be posted in the melting thread.

"Reports of [the end of the freezing season] have been greatly exaggerated." - apologies to Mark Twain
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3063 on: March 18, 2017, 06:45:34 PM »
Forgot the /sarc
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3064 on: March 20, 2017, 09:53:46 PM »
Still not looking good for a recovery.
The trend is on the downward march I think.
Looks like March 7th was the record low maximum extent on record, at least by this measure.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3065 on: March 20, 2017, 10:04:17 PM »
Still not looking good for a recovery.
The trend is on the downward march I think.
Looks like March 7th was the record low maximum extent on record, at least by this measure.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

I'd agree not - we've pretty much declared max - and I suggest we close this thread for the season.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3066 on: March 20, 2017, 10:47:59 PM »
jdallen
"we've pretty much declared max"?

You mean not yet?
It looks like it was March the 7th by this measure.  You can post some other measure with a date on it.
I wouldn't want to post this information in the melting season. It would not be relevant there, and I have not seen this specific information posted anywhere else.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 10:54:54 PM by Thomas Barlow »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3067 on: March 20, 2017, 10:54:36 PM »
"we've pretty much declared max"?
You mean not yet?

It looks like it was March the 7th by this measure.  You can post some other measure with a date on it.
I wouldn't want to post this information in the melting season. It would not be relevant there, and I have not seen this specific information posted anywhere else.

of the two major measures it's either 6th of march or 7th of march and the max was called with a tiny bit of caution but it was called.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3068 on: March 20, 2017, 11:01:35 PM »
magnamentis
the max was called with a tiny bit of caution but it was called.

Great!
Can someone point me to the post that called a date? I thought major events of the freezing season would be in this thread.
I'm interested in seeing the information given, and the logic for it.
Thanks.

« Last Edit: March 21, 2017, 01:55:43 PM by Thomas Barlow »

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3069 on: March 20, 2017, 11:32:35 PM »
It was surely discussed on the IJIS thread following the first century drop after the max.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3070 on: March 21, 2017, 03:37:25 AM »
Oren
It was surely discussed on the IJIS thread following the first century drop after the max.

Was it called as the lowest winter extent on record? 

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3071 on: March 21, 2017, 04:13:07 AM »
Oren
It was surely discussed on the IJIS thread following the first century drop after the max.


Was it called as the lowest winter extent on record?
Yes.

Here is the thread. I recommend reading the whole page 81 starting at least at reply #4014
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.4000.html#lastPost


You might want to read here also.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3072 on: March 21, 2017, 10:50:04 AM »
Great, thanks.
Can't keep up with all the threads.
When do official research centers usually announce such a thing to the press?

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3073 on: March 21, 2017, 11:18:54 AM »
Great, thanks.
Can't keep up with all the threads.
When do official research centers usually announce such a thing to the press?

Usually in their next month summary (most i know do this second week every month). we're right at the leading edge (pun intended) here!
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3074 on: March 21, 2017, 12:17:49 PM »
Great, thanks.
Can't keep up with all the threads.
When do official research centers usually announce such a thing to the press?
They already did, in so many words.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/21/record-breaking-climate-change-world-uncharted-territory

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3075 on: March 21, 2017, 02:31:25 PM »
While we have hit the maximum extent, this freezing season thread should continue to track growth in volume through April. Hopefully, the ice in the CAB continues to strengthen.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3076 on: March 21, 2017, 05:42:33 PM »
While we have hit the maximum extent, this freezing season thread should continue to track growth in volume through April. Hopefully, the ice in the CAB continues to strengthen.

Hope springs eternal....however....when was the volume peak 200 years ago verses when this year?

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3077 on: March 21, 2017, 06:23:17 PM »
We've been stuck with a large chunk of 'Good Ice' at the end of the Transpolar Drift for quite a while now and I wonder if the slow loss of this , over early melt season , will balance out any thickening going on?

If we appear to flat line our volume I'll know where to point my finger!!!

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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3078 on: March 23, 2017, 12:43:46 AM »
Face time in the media for Artie C. Ice.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/22/arctic-ice-falls-record-winter-low-polar-heatwaves
                                                                                                                                 
Such thin ice now could see record low summertime sea-ice conditions in the Arctic next September. Photograph: Operation IceBridge/Nasa

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3079 on: March 23, 2017, 04:01:55 AM »
Oren
It was surely discussed on the IJIS thread following the first century drop after the max.


Was it called as the lowest winter extent on record?
Yes.

Here is the thread. I recommend reading the whole page 81 starting at least at reply #4014
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.4000.html#lastPost


Looks like people called it the lowest on record on that thread, after I pointed out on this freezing thread. Beginners luck I guess ;-)
« Last Edit: March 23, 2017, 04:19:49 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3080 on: March 23, 2017, 11:10:17 AM »
As ever on this forum, we've had people speculating whether we've hit the max in one thread or another since February 12th. One of us is bound to be right each year. :-D

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3081 on: March 23, 2017, 12:59:10 PM »
This thread is the freezing season thread. So what is still freezing and where? Over on the melting season thread all is doom and gloom as evidence piles up for a humungous melting season. Are there any contra-indications anywhere ? (Perhaps PIOMAS sea ice volume update in early April will provide some relief).
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #3082 on: March 23, 2017, 03:03:15 PM »
I doubt April PIOMAS data will provide "relief", but I'm sure it will indicate ASI volume increased during March.  It is still freezing cold in 80N territory, and will continue to be so for two more months.  (High Arctic ice growth during the NH spring is, of course, 'in competition with' melting in more southern areas and starts 'losing' [historically] in early April.)

I will watch the DMI graph to see how close the N80 temperature this year approximates (or not) the 'average' during the spring warmup.  The 2016 DMI graph shows that last year's spring warmed faster than the average until (approximately) day #155.  I won't be surprised with a repeat performance.
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