Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2016/2017 freezing season  (Read 1088553 times)

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #150 on: October 02, 2016, 04:16:52 PM »
Ok, I know the water temps are of more concern regarding freezing than the air. And it's still mild in the Arctic compared to other places, but doesn't this raise some concern? Maybe it's become the new normal.

"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #151 on: October 02, 2016, 10:55:51 PM »
Who bumped the thermostat?
Thermostat didn't change - its the expected temperatures which dropped.

The problem being shown here, is the heat is hanging around, rather than dissipating.  It may be from heat coming out of open water, it may be a side effect of the huge inputs of moisture being pulled into the Arctic with Cyclones.  It may be something else, or a combination.

But, the heat is still there, and that may present a problem.  It won't prevent refreeze, but it will prevent thickening.
This space for Rent.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1990
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #152 on: October 02, 2016, 11:07:25 PM »
Indeed and perhaps it's worth checking the Mpemba effect, where one of the answers was in the +4c circulation change.

Personally I think it's going to be a most interesting winter...
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 646
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #153 on: October 02, 2016, 11:35:18 PM »
Here is the last 365 days of export at 5x the resolution provided at hycom. There are pauses on 24 Mar 2016 (NSIDC maximal winter extent) and on 10 Sep 2016 (NSIDC summer minimum). Hopefully the file is not too large to load. It is. A cropped down version seems to work.

The original hycom version is also attached, rotated 45º to standard orientation and cropped to retain dates. Files with 365 layers get very large in a hurry in RGB. It is almost better just to view the navy site in a web browser and use hard-coded monitor enlargement, the issue being hycom nowcast links aren't stable.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2016, 01:01:20 AM by A-Team »

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #154 on: October 03, 2016, 09:11:07 AM »
Here is the last 365 days of export at 5x the resolution provided at hycom.
<snippage>
Amazing, A-Team.

Followed over the whole season, this years loss of MYI from the Pacific side looks positively catastrophic. 

The mobilization of the remaining thick pack along the CAA, Lincoln Sea and Northern Greenland is really disturbing.
This space for Rent.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4744
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #155 on: October 03, 2016, 11:04:17 AM »
The latest GWC AMSR2 videos of the garlic press:



and the Fram Strait:


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 646
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #156 on: October 03, 2016, 12:56:00 PM »
Here are three ways of looking incrementally at the freeze/melt season from the September 10th minimum up to October 2nd. The last 2-3 days has seen melt (red) on the fringes overtaking freeze (green) though bulk ice pack motion needs consideration.

These animations take the difference between consecutive pairs of days and are similar to those long made by wipneus, though at a larger scale and from differently processed AMSR2 data, focusing only on the ice edge (open water) differences. The first animation starts on Sept 1st and pauses briefly on the 10th (red band).

These particular animations only take 5-6 clicks to make after re-purposing some menu options  -- I'll post something over at developers corner for those using gimp or imagemagick. Extracting quantitative areas on a large scale (hundreds of day pairs) remains a nuisance.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2016, 01:40:09 PM by A-Team »

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #157 on: October 03, 2016, 09:37:28 PM »


This looks pretty unprecedented. And in complete opposite of reported rapid sea ice extent regrowth…

Cate

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 199
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #158 on: October 03, 2016, 10:58:55 PM »

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2078
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #159 on: October 03, 2016, 11:02:23 PM »
UPDATE note new arctic cell link showing continued blocking pattern events pushing mid-latitude heat/water vapor north of 74'

latent heat

massive mid-latitude blocking patterns are once again forcing moisture and heat energy into the arctic cell.  This appears to be partially due to an increase of atmospheric water vapor post the latest El Nino?  We shall see if this continues.  I hate to imagine what the El Gygytgyn +8C from today at 400 ppm CO2 looks like, but it is starting to feel like an Eocene arctic future.



http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2016100312&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #160 on: October 04, 2016, 05:23:36 AM »


This looks pretty unprecedented. And in complete opposite of reported rapid sea ice extent regrowth…

(The T-graph is from here, if anyone was wondering http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)

Entalphy of fusion at work, why not? As the ice edge gets over the fresher water dome produced by the melt, it hits saltier water from south and the Ts should drop pretty fast over the ice, ice growth stall, and the snows (ice fogs) on Arctic coasts should start. Or this is how I see it. But there's no knowing of what the weather will do, of course. Any signs of the climatological Arctic high yet? It should establish itself pretty soon after darkness hits, and put the polar vortex back in motion, or so would I think.  But there's no knowing of what the weather will do, of course.

Maybe the fast freeze this year is more a result of moisture condensing from the atmosphere and falling on the sea surface than direct freezing of sea water, so the T in air should stay higher than usual.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 06:36:34 AM by Pmt111500 »

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #161 on: October 04, 2016, 12:29:05 PM »
The fast freeze seems to have hit a bit of a stall. Any guesses as to why?

I thought the one idea(above) about all the fresh water from prior melting and that puddled near the ice and then refreezing quickly, made some sense. That would explain a pause when the salt water was reached. But how much melt water would stay through storms and rough seas?

What about the slightly warmer peripheral waters and the less than ideal air temps?
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #162 on: October 04, 2016, 02:00:26 PM »
The fast freeze seems to have hit a bit of a stall. Any guesses as to why?

I thought the one idea(above) about all the fresh water from prior melting and that puddled near the ice and then refreezing quickly, made some sense. That would explain a pause when the salt water was reached. But how much melt water would stay through storms and rough seas?

What about the slightly warmer peripheral waters and the less than ideal air temps?

just look at seawater temps and wind/wave patterns and you got your answer, i mentioned this will happen a few days ago and the stall (with ups and downs) could continue for quite a while.

water temps are not slightly warmer, they are a lot warmer and a lot above average in peripheral seas. further air temps are way warmer above 80N than any previous year, including 2012. the energy/heat that has been there now for quite some time finally start to show it's effect. if the stormy conditions continue it will be a very late "real" refreeze because current temps do not explain the fast refreeze, must be a lot of freshwater and smaller floes floating around that held freshwater temps close to freezing temps.

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 646
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #163 on: October 04, 2016, 02:58:57 PM »
Quote
The fast freeze seems to have gone into reverse
Differencing of open water edge, consecutive days, from Sept 22nd to Oct 3rd.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 03:16:27 PM by A-Team »

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1857
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 489
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #164 on: October 04, 2016, 03:30:59 PM »
Two new WHOI ITP buoys are up and running. They will give us some more info on the refreeze
season and hopefully will last into next year and provide Beaufort data for the summer melt.Their numbers are #97 and
#98.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 646
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #165 on: October 04, 2016, 05:16:24 PM »
Quote
Two new WHOI ITP buoys are up and running. They will give us some more info on the refreeze
We could sure use some real in situ data. The graphs are a little confusing in that the deeper of the pair lumps temperatures and salinity bottom bins that are shown at finer and  incremental scale in the upper images.

Here are two more complex views of the ice edge and just in from it over 22 Sep - 03 Oct 2016. Colors result from a shift between high and low sea ice concentration between consecutive day pairs. The overview has had noise filtering to simplify the color scheme; the Wrangel arm close-up shows AMSR2 3.1k UHH at the full resolution provided. After watching many times, ignoring the central area, and referencing the normal view (3rd animation in post #164), you can get a sense of the changes.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 05:31:36 PM by A-Team »

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #166 on: October 04, 2016, 06:19:36 PM »
IJIS is back! And with a very interesting result too! I suppose it's the first time as an extent drop have occurred two days in a row in October(!!!) For the dates of September 27 to October 3 the IJIS SIE numbers were:

September 27: 5011447 km2
September 28: 5030140 km2 (up 18693)
September 29: 5013331 km2 (down 16809)
September 30: 5040582 km2 (up 27251)
October 1: 5035947 km2 (down 4635)
October 2:5013789 km2 (down 22158)
October 3:5034338 km2 (up 20549)

Historical or what?! Or just me who have missed something here? Obviously, there have been some small drops in October in the past, for example in 2011 and 2009.

Best, LMV
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 06:26:27 PM by Lord M Vader »

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6307
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2318
  • Likes Given: 1963
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #167 on: October 04, 2016, 07:39:25 PM »
This season is full of surprises. I guess too much heat all around even now.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #168 on: October 04, 2016, 10:19:30 PM »

Entalphy of fusion at work, why not?
<snippage>
Maybe the fast freeze this year is more a result of moisture condensing from the atmosphere and falling on the sea surface than direct freezing of sea water, so the T in air should stay higher than usual.
To your first point - I don't think there is enough ice forming to provide the necessary heat for the graph we are looking at.  As other posters have said - there's enormous quantities of sensible heat and moisture being driven into high latitudes by the endless series of cyclones we are seeing on both the Atlantic and Pacific.

To your second point... this hypothesis may have some sense to it, as that moisture precipitating out *will* be snow, and will be landing in water cold enough to prevent it from melting.  In sufficient quantity it would rapidly form nilas, and with a small additional dump of heat, have that fused into 20-30CM thick pack ice - quite enough to register as new extent.

The further problem we now have is, all that moisture falling now as snow will be piling onto that new ice, and reducing heat flow *out* of the water, all the while replacing/displacing heat flow out of the ice through the top of the atmosphere.  I'm pessimistic about the coming refreeze and the condition the ice will be in at max.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #169 on: October 04, 2016, 10:28:33 PM »
<snip>
We could sure use some real in situ data. The graphs are a little confusing in that the deeper of the pair lumps temperatures and salinity bottom bins that are shown at finer and  incremental scale in the upper images.

Here are two more complex views of the ice edge and just in from it over 22 Sep - 03 Oct 2016.
<snip>
Watching the graph, it seems like there is a distinct outer margin the pack is bouncing off of.  On the Atlantic side, our oft-discussed front along extraordinarily warm Barents and Greenland Seas, and on the Pacific, the similar but not as superheated peripheral seas.
This space for Rent.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #170 on: October 04, 2016, 11:11:15 PM »
this is what ITP97 reports from its last position on 2016/10/4 60015 UTC : 79.1319° N, 150.7375° W: a 0deg layer just 50m below the surface. The heat content of 80m of water which is  on average 1degC above freezing (salt water) could prevent 1m of ice formation. But as has been said before: thinner ice also lets more heat escape.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #171 on: October 05, 2016, 09:04:01 AM »
this is what ITP97 reports from its last position on 2016/10/4 60015 UTC : 79.1319° N, 150.7375° W: a 0deg layer just 50m below the surface. The heat content of 80m of water which is  on average 1degC above freezing (salt water) could prevent 1m of ice formation. But as has been said before: thinner ice also lets more heat escape.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136
Judging from this map,  and what you've just posted, I think we have the cause behind why the pack hasn't expanded faster than it has, what will limit its expansion over the next 4-6 weeks or more, and where some of the incredible heat (beyond what's being imported) is coming from.

This space for Rent.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #172 on: October 05, 2016, 12:58:58 PM »
this is what ITP97 reports from its last position on 2016/10/4 60015 UTC : 79.1319° N, 150.7375° W: a 0deg layer just 50m below the surface. The heat content of 80m of water which is  on average 1degC above freezing (salt water) could prevent 1m of ice formation. But as has been said before: thinner ice also lets more heat escape.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136
can one have a layer of heat staying there like that, fossilized, during the freezing season?

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #173 on: October 05, 2016, 03:48:07 PM »
Who bumped the thermostat?
Thermostat didn't change - its the expected temperatures which dropped.

The problem being shown here, is the heat is hanging around, rather than dissipating.  It may be from heat coming out of open water, it may be a side effect of the huge inputs of moisture being pulled into the Arctic with Cyclones.  It may be something else, or a combination.

But, the heat is still there, and that may present a problem.  It won't prevent refreeze, but it will prevent thickening.

I think one of the single biggest changes in the Arctic is the heavy load of moisture that is now routinely present in the atmosphere. An ice capped Arctic Ocean could best be described as a desert if you looked at precipitation with clear, sunny skies and a persistent high pressure. Due to the large stretches of open water, we now have a frequently cloudy Arctic, often with thick fog. I believe this energy rich moisture is feeding the increasingly stormy weather and clouds in the winter have got to be reducing the amount of heat radiating into space. This also has to be altering northern hemisphere weather in ways that are not clearly understood.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 05:18:24 PM by Shared Humanity »

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1857
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 489
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #174 on: October 05, 2016, 07:14:15 PM »
Seaicesailor, Yes the layer of warm water can persist year round. It is called Pacific Warm water and it's origin is via the Bering Strait. The Pacific Warm Water is one of the major defining characteristics  of Beaufort gyre water that differentiate it from arctic waters on the Atlantic side. You can see the durability of these waters in the yellow band in the Temperature/Salinity contours from this 300 +day run on WHOI ITP  buoy # 85 .  See link

Although there is a lot of heat represented it is usually insulated by the much colder fresh water lens that floats above it so direct transfer of Pacific Warm Water heat to the surface ice is rare. Surface insolation is a much larger contributor to ice melt.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=139056


I also noticed a ice mass balance buoy went in with ITP 98. This should make Jim Hunt happy.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4744
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #175 on: October 05, 2016, 07:25:14 PM »
I also noticed a ice mass balance buoy went in with ITP 98. This should make Jim Hunt happy.

I noticed that too. I'll be slightly happier if it ever appears on the CRREL/ERDC "New Results" page!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 646
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #176 on: October 06, 2016, 01:37:54 PM »
In my view, it is silly to wait around for the entire Arctic Ocean to be below some arbitrary sq km cut-off and downright preposterous to wait around for five consecutive such years -- in terms of effects, the future is already here in considerable measure for the Beaufort, Chukchi, Barents, and polar front areas.

How could it not be?

The first animation shows the open water boundary of a Beaufort/Chukchi wedge for Sept 1st through Oct 4th. These waters are already seasonally ice-free for much of the insolation season and well into the fall and so are already having their 'end-game' effects on albedo, radiation budget, cloud formation, NH atmosphere, etc.

The second animation overlays the open water boundaries over Worldview infrared cloud imagery of the same dates. As jdallen notes above, a heavy cloud cover is not altogether unexpected. http://go.nasa.gov/2dTmCyZ

Using this partition, the third animation (of Sep 10th) then classifies the cloud cover by thickness, separately for over open water and for over ice. This scheme uses just three bins for thick, thin and clear which is by no means an adequate characterization of clouds and their effect on the Arctic Ocean energy budget.

However these cloud masks, along with length of day, sun angle,and Project Sheba data from Perovich are a start on insolation reaching the surface and heat emissions being re-radiated back down from the local greenhouse effect.

The fourth image is just a visual definition of the Arctic Ocean used to convert AMRS2 UHH pixels into square kilometers for purposes of the spreadsheet columns overlaid on the first animation. Wipneus, somewhere, has a similar definition with more accurate areas. Note that official bodies such as the Int'l Hydrological Union throw in various extraneous waters such as Hudson Bay into their Arctic Ocean definition (see map at wikipedia).
« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 01:49:47 PM by A-Team »

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #177 on: October 06, 2016, 04:01:59 PM »
Just eyeballing Polarview, it looks like concentration has took a sharp downturn the last few days.
I guess it could be a glitch. I don't know, though. There could be another explanation. Worth keeping an eye on.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #178 on: October 06, 2016, 04:20:41 PM »
Here is what I am talking about. Maybe someone else can do better, but this is best visual I could find.

Click it to activate

« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 05:04:00 PM by Tigertown »
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 646
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #179 on: October 06, 2016, 09:04:47 PM »
Quote
concentration has took a sharp downturn the last few days.
Indeed, the central ice pack numbers have been wobbling back and forth. Open water can be quantitated quickly just clicking on the deepest blue on the daily AMSR2 3.1k and counting pixels. Below are the numbers for the Beaufort/Chukchi wedge above. These are easily extended back to the spring equinox.

In terms of maximal wave fetch in the season of maximal winds (now), for mixing water at depth, it doesn't get any better. In short, the surface water has just gotten too warm. The precious but precarious thermal stratification of the Arctic Ocean periphery is unravelling; the 800 kg gorilla is loose. Air doesn't have the heat capacity to cool warm water that's not radiating effectively because of the cloud cover it has helped make.

The columns are date, millions of sq km of open water in the B/C, daily melt/freeze and percent of possible overall open water.

04 Oct 16   2.91    -9   53.4 %
03 Oct 16   2.99     0   54.8 %
02 Oct 16   2.98    -3   54.7 %
01 Oct 16   3.01    14   55.1 %
30 Sep 16   2.90    -1   53.1 %
29 Sep 16   2.90     1   53.3 %
28 Sep 16   2.89     8   53.1 %
27 Sep 16   2.83   -12   51.9 % min
26 Sep 16   2.92   -17   53.5 %
25 Sep 16   3.05    -2   56.0 %
24 Sep 16   3.07     7   56.2 %
23 Sep 16   3.01   -10   55.1 %
22 Sep 16   3.09    -3   56.6 %
21 Sep 16   3.11   -11   57.0 %
20 Sep 16   3.19    -9   58.5 %
19 Sep 16   3.27     0   59.9 %
18 Sep 16   3.27    -5   59.9 %
17 Sep 16   3.31    -7   60.6 %
16 Sep 16   3.37    -4   61.7 %
15 Sep 16   3.40    -4   62.3 %
14 Sep 16   3.43     2   62.8 %
13 Sep 16   3.41     0   62.6 %
12 Sep 16   3.41    -6   62.5 %
11 Sep 16   3.46   -17   63.4 %
10 Sep 16   3.59   -13   65.8 %
09 Sep 16   3.69    -9   67.7 %
08 Sep 16   3.76    -9   68.9 %
07 Sep 16   3.83    -1   70.2 %
06 Sep 16   3.84     6   70.4 % max
05 Sep 16   3.79     1   69.5 %
04 Sep 16   3.79     1   69.4 %
03 Sep 16   3.80    -4   69.6 %
02 Sep 16   3.83    12   70.1 %
01 Sep 16   3.73     0   68.4 %
34 day ave: 3.32  -3.2   61.0%
« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 09:43:25 PM by A-Team »

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #180 on: October 06, 2016, 10:35:43 PM »
Agree completely about the heat, and have seen many others concerned about it. I am afraid there may be some late bottom melt eroding  the thickness of the heart of the pack, all while the pack is growing in extent.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #181 on: October 07, 2016, 03:07:23 AM »
Looking back over Polarview images just now, and noticed an upswing in Fram export and flushing through CAA passages, especially over the last six days. This may have at the very least contributed to thinning the pack.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1857
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 489
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #182 on: October 07, 2016, 04:05:37 AM »
Tigertown, We have largely been without buoys in the Beaufort for this past summer melt season but just recently three new buoys are sending water temperature and salinity readings.  WHOI  ITP 99 is the latest sending data. Interestingly it was placed in open water.  All three of the new buoys are in the Beaufort and all three show a cold fresh water lens of  about -1.6 degree water.  This  isn't  warm enough to cause surface melt. If it was very saline and -1.6 maybe but I don't don't think there is evidence of bottom melt , at least at the three buoys we now are getting data from.
 There may be some areas in the arctic more favorable to upwelling than others, I believe there are anyway, and I don't think the buoys now sending data are in those areas but the now expanding ice really isn't where I think upwelling is likely to occur either.
 So until I see a buoy with some indication of upwelling I will need more convincing that is a mechanism responsible for bottom melt. Someday yes there will be forces strong enough to break down the temperature/salinity driven stratification that protects the ice.  It will likely be in  areas close to shore in the Southern Beaufort or close to the New Siberian Islands.  Those are areas where some upwelling is indicated but getting a buoy in the right place at the right time to document the breakdown of the low salinity cold surface layer isn't something I have seen and I have been watching for it for several years.


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155157



Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1857
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 489
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #183 on: October 07, 2016, 04:33:26 AM »
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 97 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like. The  surface temperature has increased from-1.6 to ~ -1.0 and the salinity has increased from 28.5 to ~ 32 in a very short amount of time. This has happened below a layer of surface ice.  Worth watching more closely and I may have to eat my own words ( see above post )  if the buoy is sending good data.
 It is good to be an amateur sometimes as it gives me a certain amount of room to ask other better informed expertise to chime in , so maybe someone can better describe what is going on at ITP 98?


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156

Edited. I changed buoy number ( thanks Jim ) and added correct link . See T/S contours



http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136
« Last Edit: October 07, 2016, 02:55:06 PM by Bruce Steele »

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #184 on: October 07, 2016, 04:34:44 AM »
Agree completely about the heat, and have seen many others concerned about it. I am afraid there may be some late bottom melt eroding  the thickness of the heart of the pack, all while the pack is growing in extent.

Almost a certainty, considering the sea surface temperatures we are still seeing.

It's going to be a dynamic balance between the rate of heat flow and the near surface ocean temperatures. 

I'm reasonably convinced that was a factor at work in last season's anemic refreeze, which had large stretches of ice well under 2M thick even towards the end of the season.  Add the enormous inputs of heat we had, and what we see now is no surprise to me. I really wish we had more buoy data about the state of the water column.
This space for Rent.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #185 on: October 07, 2016, 05:41:14 AM »
Just noticed this in the other thread and it really helped put the pieces together.
From the 2016 sea ice and extent data thread. Reply #961



Wipneus,   "Four days of area (shadow CT-area that is) drops in a row:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Mon 2016.7507  +68.2  3.656771   +7.8 13.875301   +76.0 17.532072
Tue 2016.7534 +134.0  3.790730  +62.6 13.937874  +196.5 17.728604
Wed 2016.7562  -83.5  3.707184  +69.8 14.007681   -13.7 17.714865
Thu 2016.7589  -27.3  3.679907  +43.1 14.050775   +15.8 17.730682
Fri 2016.7616  -63.6  3.616354  -55.4 13.995418  -118.9 17.611772
Sat 2016.7644   -2.4  3.613994  -24.6 13.970800   -27.0 17.584794


All in the CAB. Other area calculations (Jaxa, Uni Hamburg) do not show such big drops, just a slowdown in growth.

Since extent continues to grow, the compactness for the NSIDC sea ice concentration drops to remarkable low values. See the attached graph.

The attached delta map now spans 4 days, showing were that concentration dropped."

« Last Edit: October 07, 2016, 05:47:12 AM by Tigertown »
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #186 on: October 07, 2016, 05:57:22 AM »
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 98 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like. The  surface temperature has increased from-1.6 to ~ -1.0 and the salinity has increased from 28.5 to ~ 32 in a very short amount of time. This has happened below a layer of surface ice.  Worth watching more closely and I may have to eat my own words ( see above post )  if the buoy is sending good data.
 It is good to be an amateur sometimes as it gives me a certain amount of room to ask other better informed expertise to chime in , so maybe someone can better describe what is going on at ITP 98?


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156
The Buoy is probably fine. A few comments above A-Team mentioned rough seas mixing the waters and bringing both warmer water and salinity to the surface. Each reading could have been right at the given times. Anyway, glad the buoys are back in town.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

effbeh

  • New ice
  • Posts: 19
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #187 on: October 07, 2016, 11:08:40 AM »
Arctic temperature anomaly now up to +4.99°C according to Climate Reanalyzer Daily View.  As the expected average temperature is further declining, it will grow every day.  Increasingly curious how this will continue.  Failing to get any colder, it looks more and more like the entry to a new and different world:




Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4744
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #188 on: October 07, 2016, 12:59:32 PM »
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 98 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like.

Don't you mean ITP 97 Bruce? The one that was "deployed in open water".  Its location seems to be well within the pack?
« Last Edit: October 07, 2016, 01:07:21 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2701
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 646
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #189 on: October 07, 2016, 01:37:01 PM »
It's widely believed on these forums that incident solar energy ceases to significantly heat open water in areas like the Beaufort in the fall, with some holding that irrelevance has already set in by late August. Yes and no.

The rapidly expanding pole hole on WorldView visible channels indeed shows markedly shortening daylight hours at these latitudes, but thanks to Project Sheba we have actual daily measurement of solar energy received through the clouds at the Arctic Ocean surface for the May 1st to Oct 1st season for the Beaufort (first figure). There's no way an ab initio calculation can compare in accuracy with observation.

Open water albedo was also measured at 8%; the exponential fall-off of heat adsorption with depth in sea water (Beer's Law) deposits most of this energy in the top ten meters (as up-shifted by seasonal planktonic content).

Since the area of open water in the Arctic Ocean is easily and accurately measured year-round via AMSR2, we're in a position to estimate solar energy capture by waters of the Beaufort/Chukchi over the entire season by weighting the open acreage by solar input for date each of the 154 days of the insolation season, with data for the years 2013-16 and the latter months of 2012 readily available.

According to surface observations, there is still about 20 watts per sq meter input of solar heat being received on Oct 1st which may only be ~5 percent of the 350 w/m2 seen on the 20 June 16 solstice, yet here's a lot more open water now (3.2:1 with Oct 1st open water at 3 million sq km, previous post) so total heat input to open water on Oct 1st is a respectable 16% of the June peak (2nd figure). For the overall Arctic Ocean, this ratio is even more pronounced, 4.8:1 in favor of Oct 1st (3rd figure).

Being so broadly distributed, this heat doesn't raise water temperatures so much (being further affected by mixing by longer fetch during peak wind season) but does contribute to the earth's deteriorating energy balance as the planet's former refrigerator.

Parts of the Beaufort'/Chukchi are already there in terms of being seasonally ice-free. And then there is the Barents Sea, mid-winter.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2016, 01:50:24 PM by A-Team »

Ninebelowzero

  • New ice
  • Posts: 86
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #190 on: October 07, 2016, 04:59:22 PM »
Current jetstream loopiness.


Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #191 on: October 07, 2016, 05:48:07 PM »
A-team: don't forget Kara Sea!

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #192 on: October 07, 2016, 06:12:36 PM »
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 98 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like. The  surface temperature has increased from-1.6 to ~ -1.0 and the salinity has increased from 28.5 to ~ 32 in a very short amount of time. This has happened below a layer of surface ice.  Worth watching more closely and I may have to eat my own words ( see above post )  if the buoy is sending good data.
 It is good to be an amateur sometimes as it gives me a certain amount of room to ask other better informed expertise to chime in , so maybe someone can better describe what is going on at ITP 98?


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156
The Buoy is probably fine. A few comments above A-Team mentioned rough seas mixing the waters and bringing both warmer water and salinity to the surface. Each reading could have been right at the given times. Anyway, glad the buoys are back in town.

you certainly mean "out of town" LOL just kidding, agree with your meaning of course, hope the little tease is well taken. cheers :-) :D

Hefaistos

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 719
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 74
  • Likes Given: 480

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2078
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #194 on: October 07, 2016, 06:46:03 PM »
Current jetstream loopiness.


Indeed, very weak.
Animated version:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-1.09,80.47,361/loc=-5.273,37.112

3 days hence:  https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/10/10/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/equirectangular=-153.99,76.16,519/loc=-5.273,37.112

this is a lower altitude, one that brings significant water vapor (from Western Pacific hurricane activity) into the arctic cell.   I outlined these kind of blocking pattern pushes into the arctic cell in the thread "changes in mid-latitude hydrology" in the consequences section.  It is this kind of activity, along with increased atmospheric water vapor levels in a warming world and following the slowdown of the polar jet that I conceive an eventual collapse of the arctic cell in Winter time and the mechanism that allows for a rapid increase of the already large arctic amplification effect on temperatures (during the Winter months)

thread here:  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.0.html
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #195 on: October 07, 2016, 08:44:16 PM »
Just look at all the places that are below normal temps. The precious Arctic cool air is spread all over the Northern Hemisphere;scientists say its the weak Jet Stream's that's to blame.

 
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3248
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #196 on: October 07, 2016, 10:14:58 PM »
Just look at all the places that are below normal temps. The precious Arctic cool air is spread all over the Northern Hemisphere;scientists say its the weak Jet Stream's that's to blame.
The anomalies are massive, already up into the +20C range across large stretches of the Arctic, and predicted to continue.  A quick comparison on Climate Reanalyzer  suggests we are substantially warmer than at the same time last year.

This space for Rent.

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1676
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #197 on: October 08, 2016, 01:57:07 AM »
I mentioned the Fram yesterday. Here's the glob of ice that has turned the N.E. corner of Greenland and headed south. As you can see it doesn't survive for long, even this late in the year.

"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #198 on: October 08, 2016, 09:00:14 AM »
"...Some scientists state the weak Jet Stream is to blame..." let us silently remind us what the Jet Stream is, how it is generated, and pray the scientists in question do the same.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 11:42:59 AM by Pmt111500 »

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #199 on: October 08, 2016, 11:37:17 AM »
The AO is currently strongly negative (attachment). It's also negative in the stratosphere. We might see more of that this winter, unfortunately.