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charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #250 on: October 16, 2016, 08:22:43 PM »
Jai - when I looked before more closely clicking back on other years - I think the outer band represents an actual maximum or minimum rather than a % / standard deviation band.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #251 on: October 16, 2016, 10:04:10 PM »
It's been suggested that refreezing has been anomalously slow this fall. The figures below compare the loss of open water between the Sept 20th equinox and Oct 15th for the years 2012-2015 according to UH AMSR2 determination of sea ice edge. The key year 2012 is not available for October for AMSR2 but NSIDC happened to have a rough version of Oct 15th on display which after considerable tweaking could be added to complete the AMSR2 pair for that year.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/10/Figure1.png

The table shows the loss of open water for each of these years relative to 2016. Refreezing is considerably delayed compared to all years except 2014 which was very similar. Although the refreezing takes place on the central ice pack periphery in all years,  the distribution of new ice formed over the 25 days is quite different with respect to the pole and shores.

2016   100%
2015   154%
2014   100%
2013   169%
2012   138%

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #252 on: October 16, 2016, 11:24:20 PM »
Thanks SIS great explanation for the summer "anomaly".

plinius

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #253 on: October 17, 2016, 02:01:38 AM »
Re the declining arctic summer 2-m temperatures:

I think Sea-Icesailor has raised very good points about the summer temperature issue, but I am not entirely convinced, yet. Perhaps we should discuss this more in-depth.

1.) Is this really measured, or is this purely a re-analysis/model thing?

2.) Heat-exchange:
How does heat-exchange over ice compare to heat-exchange over water? Ice has a rather smooth surface, and how about the firn layer? We all know winter Foehn, where you can get rather high temperatures over snow in the mountains. 2 Factors at play here: a.) Sublimation/melt vs. evaporation (and if I remember correctly, evaporation is far more effective) and b) rough water surface with waves affecting the ground layer

3) Weather? Increase of summer storms may play a role here?

plinius

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #254 on: October 17, 2016, 02:05:50 AM »
If this indicates significant heat being vented out that otherwise would have been trapped, well, so much for that adds to the winter power.
However, I am not convinced the timing of ocean sealing has such a strong effect on the final ocean heat content. This should be an interesting year...

I fully agree with not being convinced. Not even sure, if an open ocean in winter loses really more heat than an ice surface? Ocean is blanketed with cold clouds, ice surface might radiate more heat directly. Who wins on a large surface? (a small pond surrounded by land will act differently of course).

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #255 on: October 17, 2016, 03:45:14 AM »
Quote
1.) Is this really measured, or is this purely a re-analysis/model thing?

I just assumed they'd coupled the buoy/ship measurements with some modelling. Then there are the surface measurements from satellites that are not measuring the 2-meter temperature that could be somehow converted to 2m T's but that can't usually be done very accurately, afaik. Likely there's plenty of reanalysis involved at least for the earlier years, though there have been regular visits to high arctic by couple of nations for quite a while.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 05:19:59 AM by Pmt111500 »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #256 on: October 17, 2016, 08:57:43 AM »
While far away, ECMWF 00z run has a bombcyclone in Berings for October 26 bombing out at 924 hpa(!) Taste that, 924 hpa if it comes true! Record low for the month of October in that area or have there been any lower SLPs there?

As always, operatonal runs at Day 9 is volatile but interesting anyway for all of us Arctic weather geeks 8)

In additon, the GBH seems to come to life about the same time putting a low at 975-980 hpa at the Russian coast and a 1035-1040 hpa blocking high at northern Greenland. --> old ice will be flashed out!

//LMV

DavidR

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #257 on: October 17, 2016, 12:50:54 PM »
ClimateReanalyzer has the average temperature in the Arctic climbing to 5dC above average within a week.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #258 on: October 17, 2016, 05:21:25 PM »
Nice initiative on DMI 80ºN trends by Pmt111500 the other day in #242. Definitely worthwhile getting effective displays of season trends, though this one is a nuisance because DMI used 5-6 different graph sizes during just 1990-2016, meaning color dithering of the red line and the 365 days never getting 365 one pixel columns, crazymaking !%?.

The animation below shows this with (a bit too much) thickening of the lines, chasing Pmt's proposed rainbow. Here the lines were tiled into a grayscale display so a consistent spectral gradient could be applied.

The second image shows the effect of averaging the 29 layers. This amounts to setting the transparency of the layers to 1, .5, 33, .25, .20 etc from bottom to top, for which there is a plug-in available for gimp or a simple command line for imagemagick. The reds got washed out but a pronounced fall warming trend is evident with respect to DMI's 1958 to 2002 climatic mean (magenta curve).

Averaging a stack of co-registered images to take out noise is a core technique in astrophysics. Here on AMSR2 it has the effect of smoothing out atmospheric and surface artifacts, as well as ice pack motion, affecting microwave imagery.

https://github.com/windytan/gimp-average-layers  gimp (Oona Räisänen)
convert -average *.png output.png  ImageMagick (unknown)

October 2016 seems without precedent as others note above.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 11:48:32 PM by A-Team »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #259 on: October 17, 2016, 11:34:30 PM »
thanks A-Team that was masterful.

Clearly the daily temp anoms are not too out of sequence but the overall (previous 25 day) or (soon) monthly is well beyond statistical norms. (estimate: >2 std. dev)
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #260 on: October 18, 2016, 04:03:05 AM »
Thanks A-team for better imaging than mine, here's a screencapture of the last frame and the about the best rainbow I could easily make out of this data  :P . The day might be 68 or even 70 but anyway, there are a couple of years conflicting with a hypothetical 'always warmer'-place and date.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2016, 04:09:29 AM by Pmt111500 »

DavidR

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #261 on: October 18, 2016, 12:22:22 PM »
 In Memoriam :'(

As expected, this year Global C02 measurements failed to drop below 400 ppm for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

It will not pass below this level again in our lifetimes.


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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #262 on: October 18, 2016, 03:58:10 PM »
This DMI data really needs to be replotted from the numbers, above all to 365 pixel width. For another, it might make more sense to do as anomaly, in units of standard deviations. For that, their 'climate curve' (full ERA40 data set from 1958 to 2002) seems reasonably enough unbiased.

(Where I live, the govt weather agency diabolically downplays global warming by taking climate as 1995-2015, though even with that background we're getting clobbered.)

Couple of generally useful technical tricks on rescuing the original presentation:

Rescaling: first select the bounding box (which is a clean one-pixel black), invert selection and fill with any color, deselect and reselect interior with contiguous color picker, invert selection and delete. The file header now gives the pixel dimensions of the graph itself, eg 520 x 333, which are the rescaling parameters. DMI's graphs fall into 5-6 classes; length and width rescaling have to be decoupled -- a rather unusual incompetency. Pick one of the larger classes and bring everything to its scales. The whole thing would benefit from a larger scale to bring out trends in the summer and shoulder seasons.

Cleaning the palette: the red data line is a mess because of scale dithers and overlays. The green mean and blue 0ºC lines should always be under the data, not over it. Those need to be pulled out for a frame of their own and whited out on all the yearly data. Tile up all the frames into a single image. Select white, invert, replace the remaining selection (the reds) with a single dark gray.

Spectral coloring: This is a nightmare because equal spacing along the color wheel does not result in equal perceptual scaling or eye-distinguishable colors. Too many greens; magenta looks too warm. On a blank layer above the data layer, lay down a CCW gradient from red into purple. Select the black in the data layer, invert selection, delete in the spectral layer. Slice back into individual years; these are now colored in spectral sequence with transparency elsewhere (for stacking).

Thickening the data lines: The lines are very thin in the original and not continuous so no fix will really work. One option here is select the black in the unsliced data layer and apply 'grow selection' (in gimp). Here one pixel works better than two. More interesting: apply a gaussian blur of low radius (say 5 pixels, vertical direction only) to represent error in the reanalysis (surely documented somewhere). This thickens the data lines but with thickening falling off with y coord distance. Upon dropping the spectral layer on the blurred gray data layer, the color saturation weakens off the original reported value.

Overall it is a pity that for all the work that's gone into amassing this data (365 days x 59 years), that the follow-up presentation and analysis are so lame. This is no reflection on DMI or Denmark because here in the US we have many more clueless people on a per capita basis.

Forum folks have the capacity to fix both the statistical analysis and the graphical display. Whether "80ºN" makes sense to begin with, whether the data properly get at that, what it has to do with Arctic ice melt, whether a dramatic, accurate and engaging graphic would emerge that would tip public opinion -- those are open questions.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2016, 04:11:15 PM by A-Team »

diablobanquisa

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #263 on: October 18, 2016, 07:41:09 PM »
After the pause during the melt season, Cryosat is working again:



http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html


Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #264 on: October 18, 2016, 09:48:46 PM »
In Memoriam :'(

As expected, this year Global C02 measurements failed to drop below 400 ppm for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

It will not pass below this level again in our lifetimes.

Hurricane Madeline may have been behind an unexpected dip in carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa. The reading reported on Tuesday Aug 30th 2016 was 399.86 ppm.  :o

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/

Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #265 on: October 18, 2016, 10:48:27 PM »
In Memoriam :'(

As expected, this year Global C02 measurements failed to drop below 400 ppm for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

It will not pass below this level again in our lifetimes.

Hurricane Madeline may have been behind an unexpected dip in carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa. The reading reported on Tuesday Aug 30th 2016 was 399.86 ppm.  :o

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/

It's quite possible to achieve brief local dips here and there but that doesn't change the fact that we  have broken 400ppm for good. CO2 went from rising less than 1ppm/year to over 2ppm in the last 50-60 years, but the last 2 years were really bad: ~3.05 and 3.5 respectively. One of the most important stats is going exponential. I won't be surprised if we see a 5ppm+ jump next year. Add wildfires to the list of accelerators - https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161012141702.htm and things will look pretty grim.

Getting [somewhat] back on topic, I'm surprised how we are mostly looking at ice extent and area as stats to show melting/freezing but paying very little attention to volume changes and ice age.

Quote
Age is another indicator of the state of sea ice because older ice is generally thicker ice (Tschudi et al., 2016). As mentioned in previous posts, there has been an overall decline in ice age, particularly the oldest ice types—ice that has been in the Arctic for more than four years. Near-real-time updates (which are preliminary) indicate that at this year’s minimum, only 106,000 square kilometers (41,000 square miles) of 4+ year old ice remained, or 3.1 percent of the total ice extent. This is in stark contrast to the mid-1980s when over 2 million square kilometers (33 percent, or 772,000 square miles) of the summer minimum extent was composed of old ice that had survived at least four summer melt seasons.

If I understand this piece of information correctly, we have lost ~95% of 4+ year old ice in about 30 years?? Can someone do the math of the latent heat of fusion in this case?

Blizzard92

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #266 on: October 18, 2016, 11:23:26 PM »
Quite impressive warmth (Oct, to-date)... (from https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/788409176116502528)
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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #267 on: October 19, 2016, 12:18:59 AM »
Getting [somewhat] back on topic, I'm surprised how we are mostly looking at ice extent and area as stats to show melting/freezing but paying very little attention to volume changes and ice age.
Check out the thread about PIOMAS volume which deals with such.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.1100.html

And I saw this great graph somewhere around the forum dealing with ice age distribution over time.

Cate

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #268 on: October 19, 2016, 02:23:31 AM »
The Scribbler posted on the refreeze and got tweeted almost immediately by Bill McKibben.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/18/arctic-sea-ice-falls-into-record-low-ranges-again/

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #269 on: October 19, 2016, 04:16:04 AM »
>A-Team< yeah the sudden swings in temperatures makes the DMIabove80N graphs almost unreadable during these. I guess technically you could take the length of the lines on such situations (on these pixels of x-axis) as "the whole error margin", still one would need to fix the issues of cuts in the graph when the data graph crosses 273.15K (or melt line) or the ERA40 analysis line. This requires interpretation and a lot of handwork. At least my software shows some clues as to how the graph should be joined back together again, but not in every occasion.

Attempted to do 1990-95 as accurately as I could, enlarging the field to 730px, and fixing the cuts in line with 2px brush in order to not be too accurate  :P ::) ;D (there is such a thing, folks)  , took about 40 minutes, still there are places where it's difficult to say where the true daily value is (the "error bar" can be up to 5K), so yes, numbers would be nice.

Thanks for the tips in editing the graphs, I just stacked them with the 'darken' mode which apparently has the effect of 'greenifying' the colors in this sort of images in the program I use. The image below has been made similarly so the lines for different years get messed up when more than two of them cross at the same point.

Aw, this is the freezing season thread, maybe this needs a new thread?
« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 04:24:36 AM by Pmt111500 »

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #270 on: October 19, 2016, 01:34:52 PM »
These images are taken from: http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html

They show the temperature time series for the North Polar region. The first one shows the temperature anomaly increase in the lower troposphere. The second one shows the temperature anomaly decrease in the upper troposphere over the same region.

It is interesting to me how the upper atmosphere is cooling while the lower atmosphere is warming. I can't help to blame this on greenhouse gasses, but there may be a better explanation. Regardless of the reason, cooling in the upper troposphere means that heat is not being transferred efficiently out into space. I think this is partly to blame for the temperatures we are seeing. The third and fourth images  show the recent data of the same regions.

Pmt111500: Nice images, thank you.
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ritter

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #271 on: October 19, 2016, 06:31:21 PM »
The Scribbler posted on the refreeze and got tweeted almost immediately by Bill McKibben.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/18/arctic-sea-ice-falls-into-record-low-ranges-again/

Totally off topic, but I got to see Bill McKibben speak last night at Sonoma State University.

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #272 on: October 19, 2016, 06:40:13 PM »
These images are taken from: http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html

They show the temperature time series for the North Polar region. The first one shows the temperature anomaly increase in the lower troposphere. The second one shows the temperature anomaly decrease in the upper troposphere over the same region.

It is interesting to me how the upper atmosphere is cooling while the lower atmosphere is warming. I can't help to blame this on greenhouse gasses, but there may be a better explanation. Regardless of the reason, cooling in the upper troposphere means that heat is not being transferred efficiently out into space. I think this is partly to blame for the temperatures we are seeing. The third and fourth images  show the recent data of the same regions.

Pmt111500: Nice images, thank you.

Interesting. I know the exceptionally cold upper atmosphere was a big factor in why Nicole was able to be a hurricane as far north as it got (it's really the heat difference between lower and upper that make hurricanes thermodynamically possible).

Personally and more on topic, all season up through the minimum there was shouting about how the ice is in a bad state, and how the surrounding seas are so warm, and so on; I feel like right now, we're seeing that surrounding heat blocking the freeze up... and in particular slowing the vertical growth of the center of the pack.

It'll be interesting to see where we end up next spring. Maybe this is just a blip in the scheme of things, and once the extra heat is radiated we'll be back close to normal.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #273 on: October 19, 2016, 08:00:33 PM »
The NSIDC 5 day average Arctic sea ice extent is once again less than on the same day of 2012:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #274 on: October 19, 2016, 09:47:34 PM »
gap is growing, even though interest in global sea-ice seems to be limited for reasons that evade me i think this is an outstanding, first and record graph for global sea-ice.

didn't find a thread or a sub-forum where this fits better, hence i thought this is one of the more actual threads where this can be posted from time to time for those who consider us living on one globe and not limited to hemispheres :-) ;)

BTW all arguments against the importance of global sea-ice development would apply to global warming (climate change) as well, i refer to the argument that this is useless because it's winter in one hemisphere while it's summer in the other. this and any other argument against paying attention to global sea-ice applies to temperatures and other weather patterns and phenomenons as well :-)

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #275 on: October 19, 2016, 10:33:04 PM »
Well give it another 10 days and we'll know if the patient is flatlining.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #276 on: October 19, 2016, 10:43:45 PM »
gap is growing, even though interest in global sea-ice seems to be limited for reasons that evade me i think this is an outstanding, first and record graph for global sea-ice.

didn't find a thread or a sub-forum where this fits better, hence i thought this is one of the more actual threads where this can be posted from time to time for those who consider us living on one globe and not limited to hemispheres :-) ;)

BTW all arguments against the importance of global sea-ice development would apply to global warming (climate change) as well, i refer to the argument that this is useless because it's winter in one hemisphere while it's summer in the other. this and any other argument against paying attention to global sea-ice applies to temperatures and other weather patterns and phenomenons as well :-)

Thank you. That is very impressive. Somebody is always going to complain, so don't even worry about that. A lot more of us want to be informed. And it was different seasons per hemisphere in the past years on the chart, which makes it apples for apples.
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Tealight

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #277 on: October 20, 2016, 12:13:15 AM »
For all who are interested in daily updated maps and sea ice area values, I created a new section on my website which updates everything automatically via scripts at 18:00 GMT. At least it does it when my computer is on. On some days it might be a few hours later depending on when I get home  ;)

Over the next few days/weeks I will add graphs and make further improvements, but daily updates should not be affected.

Link
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/daily-data
« Last Edit: October 20, 2016, 12:23:52 AM by Tealight »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #278 on: October 20, 2016, 12:32:07 AM »
gap is growing, even though interest in global sea-ice seems to be limited for reasons that evade me i think this is an outstanding, first and record graph for global sea-ice.

didn't find a thread or a sub-forum where this fits better, hence i thought this is one of the more actual threads where this can be posted from time to time for those who consider us living on one globe and not limited to hemispheres :-) ;)

BTW all arguments against the importance of global sea-ice development would apply to global warming (climate change) as well, i refer to the argument that this is useless because it's winter in one hemisphere while it's summer in the other. this and any other argument against paying attention to global sea-ice applies to temperatures and other weather patterns and phenomenons as well :-)
Yeah that's great, thank you, you bet there are other threads better for this in this excellent forum, but it is nice to get pontifical reminders on the shape and spin of the world once in a while so keep it here, appreciated it.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #279 on: October 20, 2016, 05:26:04 AM »
Looks like JAXA SIE finally broke 6M km2 today. NSIDC is following close behind...
For what it's worth.

A couple little cool spots are forming off Greenland and CAA. You can see on the Anomaly map.

"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #280 on: October 20, 2016, 06:42:37 AM »
gap is growing, even though interest in global sea-ice seems to be limited for reasons that evade me i think this is an outstanding, first and record graph for global sea-ice.

The closest comparison in the shape of the curve looks to be 2011 (after 2010-11 Modoki)  and we know what happened after that. Thanks for the graph.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #281 on: October 20, 2016, 08:48:26 AM »
Highly interesting! ECMWF 00z run has a bombcyclone in the Chukchi Sea at +168h. Berings Sea could see a SLP at 936 hpa in +144h. The cyclone will extend into the CAB and ESS.

As there is open, and very warm waters, in these regions the question should be what impact such a strong cyclone will have on the refreezing?

budmantis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #282 on: October 20, 2016, 12:27:23 PM »
Looks like the temperature is finally dropping.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #283 on: October 20, 2016, 05:11:47 PM »
Looks like the temperature is finally dropping.
"Dropping" being a relative description.

I've been browsing the navy HYCOM thickness model nowcasts going back and forth across the last 4 years, looking at October runs.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticictn.html#2014

While we are generally suspicious of these model's accuracy in real time, as they are based on consistent inputs, I think they can give us reasonable references regarding the qualitative condition of the pack over time.  I'm struck by thickness the same date last year compared to today; it sees broad stretches of the arctic as 25-50CM thinner than last year.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016101918_2016102000_046_arcticictn.001.gif

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2015101918_2015102000_041_arcticictn.001.gif
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #284 on: October 21, 2016, 04:12:01 AM »
Quote
as these models are based on consistent inputs, can give us consistent comparisons. struck by thickness the same date last year compared to today -- broad stretches of the arctic as 25-50CM thinner than last year.
Agree. Provided there is not systemic bias, differencing removes absolute error when common to both. (However the error may be worse at the lowest thicknesses.) The blue thickness band is much larger in the 2016 (in a ratio of 4.9:1) than in 2015 and to a considerable extent, it comes at the expense of the (thicker) greens.

Here the palette is a hue progression in HSV color space (except for its extremities where hue is fixed over a short grayscale ramp). The gimp color picker has optional H, S, and V modes though by default it uses RGB composite. Pixels in polar stereographic differ from area-on-the-globe only by a few percent over the latitude range of the Arctic Ocean so pixel counting is a quite accurate proxy.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 12:48:33 PM by A-Team »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #285 on: October 21, 2016, 09:55:16 AM »
i don't know how many SDs above normal this is but i think it may be up to +3

it seems way too coincidental to ignore at this point... i think it is becoming obvious that as we hit warmer thresholds with an increasingly ice-free Arctic, we are seeing fall albedo feedback spiral out of control as snowfall is now increasing to very above normal levels.

to put in other words, our 10/19 NHEM snow mass is about what the avg yr in the 90s/00s saw ~11/5!


abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #286 on: October 21, 2016, 11:18:15 AM »
magnamentis,

 That is a highly interesting visual aid  :o :o :o :o :o
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
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But I had other plans..........

abbottisgone

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #287 on: October 21, 2016, 11:19:13 AM »
bbr,

 so is that  :'( :'(
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Sterks

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #288 on: October 21, 2016, 01:09:22 PM »
Highly interesting! ECMWF 00z run has a bombcyclone in the Chukchi Sea at +168h. Berings Sea could see a SLP at 936 hpa in +144h. The cyclone will extend into the CAB and ESS.

As there is open, and very warm waters, in these regions the question should be what impact such a strong cyclone will have on the refreezing?

The storm has intensified in the new forecast, and passes the Bering Sea to the Arctic Ocean. Note that the wind fetch coincides with the area of the open ocean. Based on fundamental phenomena of the ocean, we would expect surface mixing as a result of waves and swells and more memorable Ekman pumping. The refreezing may be further delayed momentarily, as there is hot and salty water that came from the Bering sea.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #289 on: October 21, 2016, 04:44:24 PM »
Quote
refreezing may be further delayed momentarily
Or indefinitely in the case of the Barents Sea which currently is showing as much as a 10.0ºC sea surface temperature anomaly.

The bottom animation shows the relationship between sea surface temperature, temperature anomaly, sea ice concentration, and bathymetry for the 19th of October, 2016.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 05:39:11 PM by A-Team »

Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #290 on: October 21, 2016, 11:39:42 PM »
Looks like we are back in the freezing business. Good thing. It was getting close to lay-off time.

What makes you think so? Any reliable source?

It doesn't look so to me, not according to earth.nullschool.net. Look at the air temps, we are consistently in the -1 - (-5)C range even near the north pole. Only some regions near the Canadian Archipelago drop below -10C. Wind patterns aren't particularly favourable for fast freezing either, not to mention the water temp anomalies all around the arctic circle. This is further confirmed by NSIDC - the Oct 13th extent is 5.466 mln km^2, only beaten by 2012 and 2007 and even these records might get broken if the current trend lasts another 3-4 days.

And here we are few days later, the extent is currently ~200k below 2012 and only ~60k above 2007 for Oct 20th. With the current trend we will reach record low within the next 36 hours.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 11:49:28 PM by Aikimox »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #291 on: October 22, 2016, 12:40:34 AM »
I was not evaluating the overall state of the Arctic or human affairs as a whole, for that matter, but only the fact that extent numbers are no longer stalled, at least for now.
NSIDC SIE
2016,    10,  09,      5.386,     
2016,    10,  10,      5.425,     
2016,    10,  11,      5.446,     
2016,    10,  12,      5.515,     
2016,    10,  13,      5.554,     
2016,    10,  14,      5.598,     
2016,    10,  15,      5.736,     
2016,    10,  16,      5.857,     
2016,    10,  17,      5.880,     
2016,    10,  18,      5.931,     
2016,    10,  19,      6.105,     
2016,    10,  20,      6.310
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #292 on: October 22, 2016, 03:13:34 AM »
Link to video by Andy Lee Robinson, originally posted by Neven on the Blog. Apologies if I am cross threading. not sure if its been posted already somewhere.

This really shows how things have went down in the Arctic over time, using volume as a gauge.

 
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

be cause

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #293 on: October 22, 2016, 03:13:52 PM »
The next week looks like being dramatic across the Arctic , LMV's long predicted cyclonic monster is now predicted across the models ... pouring warmth into the Pacific side while a thrust of extra warm air pushes in from the Atlantic . Run an 850 anomaly forecast to see the warmth meet across the Arctic ..
Whither the weather is as dramatic  as forecast ; it certainly looks like the 'new' Arctic autumn/fall season is not yet over .
I would love those with a longer eye on all things Arctic to discuss the 'unusualness' of this event . This could be a week that really matters to the Arctic .... bc.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #294 on: October 22, 2016, 03:51:13 PM »
Brian Brettschneider has this interesting tweet. Unfortunely, it doesn't tell us if these stations from World Climate Service are just located in Alaska or around the whole Arctic.


mhampton

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #295 on: October 22, 2016, 04:34:20 PM »
That little thumbnail map in the lower right seems to indicate its all around the Arctic; looks like about 19 stations.

Brian Brettschneider has this interesting tweet. Unfortunely, it doesn't tell us if these stations from World Climate Service are just located in Alaska or around the whole Arctic.



Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #296 on: October 22, 2016, 04:54:21 PM »
Meanwhile, according to NSIDC, SIE is just 30k km^2 from record low (2007) and 300k below 2012 for Oct 21st.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #297 on: October 22, 2016, 06:48:55 PM »
And on the other pole, Antarctica is 2nd lowest behind 1986 for the date....

Tealight

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #298 on: October 23, 2016, 01:02:55 AM »
Meanwhile, according to NSIDC, SIE is just 30k km^2 from record low (2007) and 300k below 2012 for Oct 21st.
And on the other pole, Antarctica is 2nd lowest behind 1986 for the date....

If you look at sea ice area we are currently lowest at both poles.

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #299 on: October 23, 2016, 05:41:27 AM »
I was not evaluating the overall state of the Arctic or human affairs as a whole, for that matter, but only the fact that extent numbers are no longer stalled, at least for now.
NSIDC SIE
2016,    10,  09,      5.386,     
2016,    10,  10,      5.425,     
2016,    10,  11,      5.446,     
2016,    10,  12,      5.515,     
2016,    10,  13,      5.554,     
2016,    10,  14,      5.598,     
2016,    10,  15,      5.736,     
2016,    10,  16,      5.857,     
2016,    10,  17,      5.880,     
2016,    10,  18,      5.931,     
2016,    10,  19,      6.105,     
2016,    10,  20,      6.310

10-21-16: 6.466 million km2. 1 million km2 of increased ice extent in 10 days. Still slower than previous years, but hopefully picking up steam.
Feel The Burn!