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Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #400 on: October 29, 2016, 07:54:41 PM »
Wow, just wow. I was looking at the tiny 14k growth on IJIS and I can't believe what's happening. I've been reading what everyone has been saying and it is hard to believe how slow the growth has been this year. There have been some decent articles lately describing the the dipole that is forming.


The arctic has picked up about 3 million km2 since the low. I went back and compared that with every year since 1978 and found out that this amount of growth is fairly typical. Some years were much higher, with 5-6 million km2 on Oct 28 after the season low. However, many years were 4 million km2 or less (between 2-4 million km2). The pace now is about 1 million km2 of ice extent gained every 9 days. Who can say how the rate will change as the freezing season proceeds, but if the arctic can pick up 2-3 million km2 of ice from now until Feb-March, I don't expect to see a catastrophe.

The temperature in the arctic, especially above open water, has been well above average. It was stated several times that open water releases much more heat than water trapped beneath ice and that at least one person hoped we would have more open water for longer to help vent more heat. That may very well be happening.
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #401 on: October 29, 2016, 08:57:03 PM »
... this is even more anomalous than the sea ice, also record setting all time i believe at this point

...the differential with previous years is now increasing each and every year and the earlier the differential begins blowing up the worse the albedo feedback will be. this is very scary

The land absorbs far less heat than the ocean, and during winter, albedo is not much of a factor.  So when spring comes, the cooling effect of this snow will not be as significant as the heating due lack of sea ice. In other words, the amount of cold forcing from more snow in no way can reverse the momentum of heating embodied in our increasingly warm oceans and corresponding lack of sea ice.  Of more interest to me is the effect of excess snow on sea ice formation.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #402 on: October 29, 2016, 08:59:19 PM »
... this is even more anomalous than the sea ice, also record setting all time i believe at this point

...the differential with previous years is now increasing each and every year and the earlier the differential begins blowing up the worse the albedo feedback will be. this is very scary

The land absorbs far less heat than the ocean, and during winter, albedo is not much of a factor.  So when spring comes, the cooling effect of this snow will not be as significant as the heating due lack of sea ice. In other words, the amount of cold forcing from more snow in no way can reverse the momentum of heating embodied in our increasingly warm oceans and corresponding lack of sea ice.  Of more interest to me is the effect of excess snow on sea ice formation.
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Tealight

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #403 on: October 29, 2016, 09:32:50 PM »
@bbr2314

More snow and colder 2m air temperatures shouldn't be seen as cooling at this time of the year. The snow insulates the ground and prevents it from radiating heat into space. If the ground doesn't lose heat air temperatures are of course lower. This is another factor amplifying the reduction of permafrost.

Albedo doesn't play a major role anymore and overall the heat loss of the planet should be lower with snow at high latitudes.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #404 on: October 29, 2016, 09:46:01 PM »
It isn't winter yet...

Yes, thanks for that i should have put fall/winter.  The main point is that snow albedo can not appreciably reverse or slow the extra heat from long days of direct sunlight pumping gigajoules into our increasingly ice-free arctic seas.  The arctic sea ice death spiral continues to be the most significant single reason why our holocene planetary energy budget is getting completely thrown out of wack.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2016, 10:00:28 PM by Ice Shieldz »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #405 on: October 29, 2016, 10:05:53 PM »
The building storm is pulling lots of warm moist air into the Arctic basin.

With long reaches of ~60 km/h winds, there will be some waves as well.

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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #406 on: October 29, 2016, 10:21:23 PM »
It was stated several times that open water releases much more heat than water trapped beneath ice and that at least one person hoped we would have more open water for longer to help vent more heat. That may very well be happening.
Yes, and of course it follows that having all that open water is good eventually because after the heat vents ice can form.  Problem is the winds from all these pressure gradients and cyclone cannons just replenish the ocean surface with warm water from depth.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #407 on: October 29, 2016, 10:31:03 PM »
I cannot believe that the lack of snowfall is not causing more harm than good in the long run. I would like to hear more of the vets on here chime in on the matter. I would at least think the dryness would hurt the permafrost, in the long run. How that compares to the missed insulating quality of the snow, I don't know?

North America received a lesser amount of snowfall in the 2011-2012 winter, however that may have affected the Arctic that following summer.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/snow/climate.html
« Last Edit: October 29, 2016, 10:37:07 PM by Tigertown »
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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #408 on: October 29, 2016, 10:33:15 PM »
The arctic has picked up about 3 million km2 since the low. I went back and compared that with every year since 1978 and found out that this amount of growth is fairly typical. Some years were much higher, with 5-6 million km2 on Oct 28 after the season low. However, many years were 4 million km2 or less (between 2-4 million km2). The pace now is about 1 million km2 of ice extent gained every 9 days. Who can say how the rate will change as the freezing season proceeds, but if the arctic can pick up 2-3 million km2 of ice from now until Feb-March, I don't expect to see a catastrophe.
Most of those years had much higher minimum ice during September, and therefore had a hard time gaining ice in the fall. This year had ice-free areas all the way to the North Pole, it had the second-lowest minimum extent, and still produced a lower-than average fall refreeze.
And the Arctic is supposed to pick up about 7 million km2 from now until Feb-March.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #409 on: October 29, 2016, 10:36:28 PM »
It was stated several times that open water releases much more heat than water trapped beneath ice and that at least one person hoped we would have more open water for longer to help vent more heat. That may very well be happening.
Yes, and of course it follows that having all that open water is good eventually because after the heat vents ice can form.  Problem is the winds from all these pressure gradients and cyclone cannons just replenish the ocean surface with warm water from depth.
Exactly,
What heat escapes is only going to be from near the surface. If anything stirs the water later, more heat will come up from the depths below. The only protection against that would be thick, heavy multi-year ice, which is getting to be a commodity.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #410 on: October 29, 2016, 10:45:46 PM »
I cannot believe that the lack of snowfall is not causing more harm than good in the long run. I would like to hear more of the vets on here chime in on the matter. I would at least think the dryness would hurt the permafrost, in the long run. How that compares to the missed insulating quality of the snow, I don't know?

North America received a lesser amount of snowfall in the 2011-2012, however that may have affected the Arctic that following summer.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/snow/climate.html

Snow is a good insulator, so a lack of winter snow cover is better for permafrost regions as it allows the cold to penetrate more.

The early snow cover over much of Canada and Siberia currently will actually insulate the permafrost from the extreme cold during Winter, leaving it slightly warmer than it would have been otherwise come Spring.

The opposite is then true in Spring and Summer.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #411 on: October 29, 2016, 11:17:46 PM »
(bbr2314 Post 292)

We have been seeing anomalously high snow covers in the fall and early winter for many years now. We have also been seeing earlier and earlier melting of this snow so that we have seen increasing negative snow cover anomalies in the Spring. I have to believe the early and high snow covers are at least partly due to the open seas in the Arctic as well as the increased moisture load in the atmosphere and the intrusions of the Arctic air mass further and further south. Thank you for posting these anomalies. It is certainly related to this freezing season. Please don't drift as you seem prepared to do into how it is evidence of the approaching ice age.

pccp82

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #412 on: October 30, 2016, 01:18:07 AM »
Amateur observation here:

it is staggering to me how the cold temps just have not been able to build in the high arctic via GFS 6 day outlooks. The temp anomaly chart indicates that this indeed a significant event, and especially on Oct 31, it's temp anomaly presentation is nothing short of spectacular. I don't have many years experience looking at this sort of thing, so its difficult for me to put it into context just how out of the ordinary this is.

Is the damage already done for this freezing season? My intuition says that this is going to manifest itself in some way later on in the freezing season, whether that be most apparent in volume, area, or both. This stuff is probably all self evident, I know...but it makes me wonder just how close we are to a tipping point....and how few people are paying attention.






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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #413 on: October 30, 2016, 01:43:39 AM »
An embarassingly amateur observer here , but certainly paying attention . Watching the drama unfold is extraordinary . We are probably in the middle of weather with at least the importance of the 2012 GAC .. but almost without commentary .
Is an 80mb pressure gradient between pole and ESS abnormal ? . Is a storm below 965 mb unusual at this time ? . The temperatures ? The winds and waves ? The stalling freeze ? ..
 The rapid seperation of this season from the pack will keep my ring-side seat warm all winter !
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. you gotta laugh .. :)

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #414 on: October 30, 2016, 02:15:27 AM »
I too am a bit surprised at the lack of discussion (at least in comparison to pre-min) concerning the ongoing record-breaking sea ice...

The persistence and coverage of above normal temperatures in the entire Arctic Ocean is particularly alarming over the next 1-2 weeks... https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/792019418821779458. In combination with unusually warm SST and a tight pressure gradient, it should maintain sea ice at record low levels for the foreseeable future.

While CryoSat-2 real-time data is also available now (http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html), I am interested in seeing the PIOMAS October SIT/SIV numbers in just a few days.
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"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Blizzard92

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #416 on: October 30, 2016, 04:26:09 AM »
And the extent gap continues to grow...
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #417 on: October 30, 2016, 05:49:32 AM »
Though less than perfect the HYCOM Thickness model gives a fairly good idea of how things have gone down, starting in 2012. In GIF form.

"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #418 on: October 30, 2016, 07:29:36 AM »
Though less than perfect the HYCOM Thickness model gives a fairly good idea of how things have gone down, starting in 2012. In GIF form.

Thanks for the animation. The ESS is Ground Zero of this poor refreeze season. Once it does refreeze extent will be playing catch-up.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #419 on: October 30, 2016, 08:36:03 AM »
Though less than perfect the HYCOM Thickness model gives a fairly good idea of how things have gone down, starting in 2012. In GIF form.

Thanks for the animation. The ESS is Ground Zero of this poor refreeze season. Once it does refreeze extent will be playing catch-up.
ESS, Beaufort and Kara.  I include all three.

The Chukchi has remained open fairly late all 4 years, but in the others, either one or both of the Beaufort and Kara are extensively covered.  This year, the absence of ice on both is pretty stark, and I think is a direct testament to just how much insolation they got, much earlier and for much longer; heck, the Beaufort is *still* getting some sunlight (6 hours, at low angle) - not much, but some, which strikes me as ludicrous.

Just consider what things looked like just 10 years ago - 10/28/2006 via CT - and I think that emphasizes my point.  Compare the extent to 2016.  For this much water to be this open this late at this high a latitude really  *IS* unprecedented.   I consider it just as shocking as the record low in 2012.

Here's some ponderage for all of you... let's watch the Bering sea very carefully.  It isn't dumping heat, at all, with the storms we've been seeing.  If this weather pattern continues, and keeps sending heat and moisture into the Bering and north into the Chukchi, we may see record low extent there... as in possibly very little beyond nilas much south of St. Lawrence Island or hard up against the coast where cold air flow off the land can lock it down.  Just how fast will that melt out next spring?  What will a fast Bering melt out do to the very fragile, late forming and low-thickness ice that's going to form all across the Pacific side of the Arctic, from the ESS to the Amundsen Gulf?  Any resemblance to the previous typical energy budget in the Arctic has just gone out the window.

The effect on the Arctic Biome is going to be devastating, for a start.  It goes down hill from there. I think we're in free fall, bouncing off the walls on the way to the bottom.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #420 on: October 30, 2016, 04:23:42 PM »
Summing the temperature anomaly reported by cci-reanalyzer.org/ in the arctic and antarctic together could easily be characterized as "denier math", but the +6.03 C anomaly in the arctic and the +2.20 anomaly in the antarctic sums to a stunning +8.23 C polar anomaly.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #421 on: October 30, 2016, 04:29:59 PM »
These anomalies are not additive.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #422 on: October 30, 2016, 04:39:33 PM »
jdallen....

Could you post 2016 image for comparison purposes?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #423 on: October 30, 2016, 05:06:59 PM »
These anomalies are not additive.
Although they are averagable. A bipolar +4.115 is probably far from any recorded average.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #424 on: October 30, 2016, 06:31:33 PM »
These anomalies are not additive.

Although, who knows the effects of a record low maximum SIE in the Arctic at the same time as a record minimum SIE around Antarctica???
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6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #425 on: October 30, 2016, 07:13:34 PM »
These anomalies are not additive.

Although, who knows the effects of a record low maximum SIE in the Arctic at the same time as a record minimum SIE around Antarctica???
At the risk of being pedantic, the discussion was of temperature, and the record low maximum Arctic SIE wasn't at the same time as the record minimum Antarctic SIE. But their correlation is interesting.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #426 on: October 30, 2016, 07:37:20 PM »

While CryoSat-2 real-time data is also available now (http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html), I am interested in seeing the PIOMAS October SIT/SIV numbers in just a few days.

It will be a new record low in Sept-Oct avg growth.  It is important to realize that SIE is anachronistic to the new regime of climate in the arctic now.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #427 on: October 30, 2016, 08:11:44 PM »
These anomalies are not additive.

Although, who knows the effects of a record low maximum SIE in the Arctic at the same time as a record minimum SIE around Antarctica???
At the risk of being pedantic, the discussion was of temperature, and the record low maximum Arctic SIE wasn't at the same time as the record minimum Antarctic SIE. But their correlation is interesting.
Was speaking of the upcoming possibility, say around early March. Temps are hindering freezing in Arctic and aiding melting around Antarctica.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #428 on: October 30, 2016, 08:16:19 PM »
Antarctic is melting from below which results in a cold fresh water layer in the top 100m that doesn't sink. This means the SSTs in the southern ocean don't warm much but the oceanic heat content of the oceans rises rapidly. Don't count on an antarctic sea ice record minimum because the melting of glacial ice at depth of hundreds to thousands of meters below sea level doesn't reduce the thin ice at the surface.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #429 on: October 30, 2016, 08:51:56 PM »
The cold melt water might have a little trouble staying in one place as there are underwater currents around Antarctica constantly bringing in more warm water. And yes the glacial ice is melting from below in many of the glaciers, especially the ones that have a retro-grade inland from the grounding lines, but the currents are also melting the sea ice. There is at least the possibility of a record coming up. I did not say it in an over confident way, just saying it could happen.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 08:57:33 PM by Tigertown »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #430 on: October 30, 2016, 10:06:23 PM »
jdallen....

Could you post 2016 image for comparison purposes?
Wish I could, but CT hasn't been updating their images for months - since the Satellite failure.  Perhaps Bremen can give us a reasonable comparison...

[Edit]  Looking at it some more, the amount of water north of 75 degrees latitude - where it is well and truly dark right now - really stands out.  That's most of the Kara, a good slug of the Barents, and even some open exposure in the CAB proper.  There's even open water still north of 80 (!!!). 

It's really pretty amazing to look, at this date, and see the *entirety* of the Kara open.  Even if this means its venting heat, it also means there was that much *more* heat to dump, and implies we're far from done.  That being the case, it calls to me to question whether the opportunity will exist for decent 2M+ ice to form.

Back to the Beaufort - If there's any thick MYI ice left, it's relict disconnnected floes, and very rare.  None of the rest (and probably most of the MYI that survived) is over 2M thick outside of areas close to the CAA, and most is actually under 1M.  That's completely at odds with what used to exist in the past.

System change.

« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 10:17:49 PM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #431 on: October 30, 2016, 10:18:25 PM »
The effect on the Arctic Biome is going to be devastating, for a start.  It goes down hill from there. I think we're in free fall, bouncing off the walls on the way to the bottom.

Pretty much the 2017 season should be a shocker, followed by the, now common (two 5 year cycles in a row), rebound in 18/19, ready for the drop off again starting in 2020.

If that really is the cycle we're seeing (and Hans Gunnstaddar and I, on the blog, are convinced), then the black swan event could be next year but will not be any later than 2026.  Not that I'd bet on any later than 2022.

Whilst I believe that 2016 is a seminal event, I don't try to compare it with 2012 or, even, directly with 2006.  What I do is try to compare the 2016 melting season in the context of melting of 2012 to 2016 and the comparable differences between 2002 to 2006.

When we look at how 2006 diverges from the 2002 - 2005 and how 2016 diverges from 2012 - 2015, I see similarities.  Of course you have to allow for the fact that 2012 was a HUGE melt season never really seen before and that messes stuff up just like 1998 messed up the temperature records.

But that is the relationship I'm looking for.  Not a direct year on year comparison but a cycle to cycle comparison.

Because if I'm right, 2017 is going to be far more like 2007 than 2012 and it's going to be in the context of the low volume and weak ice post 2007 and 2012.

Which is, you would think, almost enough to give us the black swan event we all are waiting for but could all happily wait a lot longer to see.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #432 on: October 30, 2016, 10:22:00 PM »
A look at how dramatic the last few weeks has been for sea ice extent via https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/792824223618113536

This is [ daily 2016(SIE) - years(previous min) ] from JAXA record...

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #433 on: October 30, 2016, 11:03:42 PM »
<SNIP>
Just consider what things looked like just 10 years ago - 10/28/2006 via CT - and I think that emphasizes my point.  Compare the extent to 2016.  For this much water to be this open this late at this high a latitude really  *IS* unprecedented.   I consider it just as shocking as the record low in 2012.
<SNIP>
The effect on the Arctic Biome is going to be devastating, for a start.  It goes down hill from there. I think we're in free fall, bouncing off the walls on the way to the bottom.

a perfect assessment indeed :-) applies to snipped parts as well, just wanted to keep the quote short :-)

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #434 on: October 30, 2016, 11:05:28 PM »
The arctic has picked up about 3 million km2 since the low. I went back and compared that with every year since 1978 and found out that this amount of growth is fairly typical.

Over the previous ten seasons--2006-2015--IJIS has increased an average of 3.69M km2 between minimum and today. This year, on the other hand, has seen just 2.86M, or lass than 78% of the ten-year average.

That doesn't seem "fairly typical" to me.

Of course, most of that s-l-o-w increase has been in October, with just 58% of the average month-to-date increase:



What's most alarming about the slow increase, of course, is that years with a very low minimum--2007, 2012, etc.--generally have faster growth rates. Not so this year; something is different.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #435 on: October 30, 2016, 11:59:37 PM »
As of late October 2016, large areas of open water remain in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Bering Straits, and East Siberian Sea. The peripheral surface waters are far too warm for ice to stably form — in places some 4º C above the freezing point (-1.9º at surface salinity) — except in the eastern Beaufort and Laptev seas.

The Beaufort, Chukchi and Barents seas are seasonally ice-free now, with all that that implies. We need not wait until 2050, it’s here now. The Beaufort had significant areas of open water by the 1st of May this year and still has not frozen over six months later.

This development in the Chukchi is primarily attributable to to long fetches of open water allowing strong winds to turbulently mix surface with lower warmer water, to large and increasing inputs of warm Pacific Water crossing the 50m x 85km sill at the Bering Strait, teleconnections of an El Nino year and Pacific blob, persistent Arctic Ocean cloud cover reflecting back radiated heat, for which the stage has been set by long term trends in sea ice loss due to global warming and its Arctic amplification.

The 55-day time series below shows sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and sea surface temperature (SST) at 70º N, 170º W (green circle) and the sea ice edge response to conditions (AMSR2 zero ice concentration envelope, yellow line). Solar input has ceased; colder air temperatures are ineffectual at cooling large volumes of mixed water — the meagre heat capacity and low conductivity of air are no match for wind-mixed waters or the recent and continuing surge through the Bering Strait suggested by surface salinity data. However air temperatures themselves have been most anomalously warm, see https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/790579202181390336

The mean October anomaly at the indicated site is 2.3º C above the average sea surface temperature of 4.3º. It’s feasible to obtain these statistics regionally (over each daily expanse of open water) using the AMSR2 mask to restrict a contoured version of the nullschool display, but probably better to retrieve the raw data product RTG-SST/NCEP/NWS or its daily contour map.

Sea ice-dependent marine mammals such as walruses reach feeding grounds by resting on floes carried by wind and current; an embedded sub-animation shows a walrus shaking its head as it fades to near-oblivion on the final frame. On October 24th, the nearest ice to Barrow AK was 448 km to the north. The first few kilometers of that gray/pancake/underwater frazil ice would not support the weight of a gerbil.

Indeed the Arctic Ocean has not frozen north of Svalbard either, which is 730 km farther north than Barrow and just 1050 km from the north pole. The issues here are different for the Barents though, involving the Atlantic Water currents and a close-in continental shelf.

The Arctic Ocean does not need a ‘black swan’ event any more to fall catastrophically below its trend line, a gray swan event will do. That’s weather conditions well within normal variation but ill-timed: sunny weather during early melt season, strong cyclones in August, persistent warm and humid air brought in by lower latitude hurricanes, steady pressure dipoles whose winds expors ice out the Fram, and so on. Here the black swan of September morphs to white by the end of October to represent the Chukchi and Bering Straits are not freezing up as in the past (3rd and 4th animations).

Some very recent scientific articles describe the currents and heat inputs across the Bering Strait and analyse the satellite record in this area. Note though that an article published in October 2016 will have a data cutoff of 2014, but the 37 abstracts at this December’s AGU2016 mentioning the Chukchi or Beaufort bring these up to date..

Emerging trends in the sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas
J Thomson et al  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.02.009
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00345/45590/45202.pdf free full text

The sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas is controlled by the wind forcing and the amount of ice-free water available to generate surface waves. Clear trends in the annual duration of the open water season and in the extent of the seasonal sea ice minimum suggest that the sea state [ie waves] should be increasing, independent of changes in the wind forcing…. The increase in wave energy may affect both the coastal zones and the remaining summer ice pack, as well as delay the autumn ice-edge advance [to the extent waves hit the edge].

A Synthesis of Year-Round Interdisciplinary Mooring Measurements in the Bering Strait (1990–2014)
RA Woodgate et al
Oceanography | September 2015
http://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/28-3_woodgate.pdf  free full text

Although the volume transport of the Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC) of  ~0.1 Sv is small compared to the full Bering Strait throughflow of ~0.8 Sv [which in turn is a quarter of Atlantic Waters entering at the Barents at 3.2 Sv],  the ACC is 5ºC warmer and 7 psu fresher than the main waters of the strait, it carries a third of the heat and onequarter of the freshwater flux of the Bering Strait.

Perhaps most dramatic interannual variability is the increase in Bering Strait volume flux from 2001 to 2013 from ~0.7 Sv to ~1.1 Sv, almost a 50% increase in the flow. Since to first order whatever enters the Bering Strait must exit the Chukchi Sea into the Arctic Ocean, this increases ventilation of the Arctic halocline, decreases residence time in the Chukchi by several months, and increases oceanic heat flux.

Since Pacific waters exit the Arctic via the Fram Strait and the CAA at near-freezing temperatures, this allows us to quantify the heat lost from the Pacific waters somewhere in the Chukchi/Arctic system. Including corrections for the ACC and stratification, calendar-mean Bering Strait heat fluxes are 3 6 x 1020 J/ yr 1 (or 10 -20 TW,  comparable to  shortwave solar input to the Chukchi Sea.

This quantity of heat is sufficient to melt 1-2 million square km of 1 m thick ice. Bering Strait heat flux may act as a trigger to create open water upon which the ice albedo feedback can act, and also provides a year-round subsurface source of heat potentially thinning Arctic sea ice, since Pacific summer waters are found in half the Arctic Ocean.

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea
MC Serreze, AD Crawford, JC Stroeve, AP Barrett, RA Woodgate
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans,121, doi:10.1002/2016JC011977 (2016) blocked access, figures available

As assessed over the period 1979–2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of 20.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back tothe shelf break has a steeper trend of about 11.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days.

Based on detrended time series, we ask how inter-annual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind, and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

Enhanced heat fluxes from the ocean back to the atmosphere in autumn and winter is a major driver of Arctic amplification — the outsized rise in Arctic surface air temperatures relative to the rest of the planet. Whether the effect of ice loss on Arctic amplification extends through a deep enough layer of the troposphere to alter jet stream patterns with impacts on middle-latitude weather is a vibrant area of debate.

GC24A-01: Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics in the Emerging Arctic Ocean
Tuesday, 13 December 2016 Moscone West - 3005

The sea state of the Arctic Ocean is changing. With an increasing retreat of sea ice in the summer months, storms are now more likely to occur over open water, and the result is an increasing trend in both the heights and periods of surface waves in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The elevated sea state affects, in turn, the refreezing process in the autumn. In 2015, a field campaign collected a comprehensive suite of air-ice-ocean measurements during the autumn freeze-up in the Beaufort Sea, and these measurements are used to investigate the surface wave effects and coupled dynamics.

The most prominent process is the formation of pancake ice, which occurs when surface wave motions disturb newly forming frazil ice. Analysis of a wave event from open water through different stages of a gradually maturing pancake ice cover shows high sensitivity of the surface waves to the types of ice cover. Other cases suggest that waves impact the near-surface heat flux convergence, impacting the ice formation. Hence, there is a two-way interaction between ice and waves. Wave attenuation is captured with adjustment of a viscoelastic parameterization in a wave hindcast model. The results suggest that a fully coupled air-ice-wave model will be necessary to describe the evolution of sea state and ice cover during the Arctic freeze-up.

C31D-02: Regional Upper Ocean Variability and Ocean Heat Losses during the 2015 Autumn Ice-Edge Advance in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas as Observed during the Sea State Field Campaign
Wednesday, 14 December 2016 Moscone West

Some of the fastest Arctic sea ice changes are happening in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas as indicated by a much earlier (by ~49 days over the last 36 years) ice-edge retreat in spring, followed by a much later (by ~43 days) ice-edge advance in autumn (based on 1979-2014 satellite observations). The lengthening of the summer open water season and increasing fetch also mean greater upper ocean heat content and a longer, possibly stronger period of wind/wave forcing on the upper ocean and advancing sea ice cover.

To understand how surface waves and winds affect air-sea-ice interactions and consequently the timing of the autumn ice-edge advance in the emerging Arctic, a Sea State field campaign was conducted aboard NSF’s R/V Sikuliaq from 4 Oct to 5 Nov 2015. During the campaign we obtained contemporaneous in situ observations of the atmospheric boundary layer, ice cover, wave state and upper ocean along a cruise track in and out of the advancing ice cover in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Vessel-underway (uCTD) profiler was used to collect over 4200 upper ocean profiles during both quiescent and stormy conditions in and outside the ice cover.

Using the uCTD data we describe the spatial variability in upper ocean structure and heat content within the context of its recent past regarding summer open water duration and wind/wave forcing, as well as regional variability in water mass characteristics. We then describe the contemporaneous air-sea-ice observations, including air-ocean energy fluxes and changes in upper ocean heat content during brief periods of ice-edge advance, loitering and retreat to explain the overall space/time evolution of the ice-edge advance in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas during autumn 2015.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 12:17:17 AM by A-Team »

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #436 on: October 31, 2016, 03:01:31 AM »
The arctic has picked up about 3 million km2 since the low. I went back and compared that with every year since 1978 and found out that this amount of growth is fairly typical.

Over the previous ten seasons--2006-2015--IJIS has increased an average of 3.69M km2 between minimum and today. This year, on the other hand, has seen just 2.86M, or lass than 78% of the ten-year average.

That doesn't seem "fairly typical" to me.


Thanks for challenging my eyeball assessment. I was impressed by the quote by Christian Wolf (Ben Affleck) from The Accountant: "I don't guess." Therefore, to remove all doubt I took the daily ice extent data published by NSIDC, dropped it into a spread sheet, identified the minimum for each year since 1979, and created a formula to calculate the min-to-date increase for every published date. I admit I didn't take the 5-day moving average but the daily amounts should be good enough for this exercise. Here is the min-to-date increase for October 29 every year since 1979 in million km2. You can decide for yourself what is "fairly typical." When Oct 29 data isn't available for a given year I am reporting Oct 30.

1979          2.902
1980          2.378
1981          2.817
1982          3.038
1983          3.110
1984          3.037
1985          3.080
1986          3.195
1987          2.819
1988          2.831
1989          3.154
1990          3.867
1991          3.412
1992          2.860
1993          3.688
1994          3.136
1995          3.806
1996          2.542
1997          2.860
1998          2.977
1999          4.046
2000          3.389
2001          2.685
2002          3.554
2003          3.077
2004          3.217
2005          3.810
2006          4.353
2007          3.938
2008          4.559
2009          3.339
2010          3.486
2011          3.947
2012          4.299
2013          3.733
2014          3.850
2015          3.902
2016          3.028
Feel The Burn!

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #437 on: October 31, 2016, 04:20:55 AM »
I find it interesting that the older you go in the data, the lower growth there is. It makes sense, since the minimum was much higher in the 80's and much lower in recent years. It is also interesting that 2007 and 2012 have much higher than average growth, which also makes sense because they were record minimum years. That 2016 minimum extent was lower than 2007 but the growth to date was still poor is what is concerning.

To me this is just a preview of what it will look like after the first ice free year in the Arctic. Right now there is a whole bunch of albedo related heat overwhelming the freezing power of the Arctic winter. My guess and hope is that at some point before February, winter power can take care of most of the heat, allowing the ice to regrow. If/when that happens I expect sea ice to jump up at record speeds, like we saw in September. If that happens early enough, then maybe there will be enough time for ice to thicken before the melting season begins.

 
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #438 on: October 31, 2016, 04:34:32 AM »

Thank you for that excellent post, packed full of comments and references worth studying in detail. One minor font-related issue; for whatever reason the Serreze et al. abstract on ice retreat in the Chukchi Sea showed annual trends as 20.7 days per year and 11.5 days per year rather than -0.7 days per year and +1.5 days per year.

Quote
As assessed over the period 1979–2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #439 on: October 31, 2016, 04:43:29 AM »
Though less than perfect the HYCOM Thickness model gives a fairly good idea of how things have gone down, starting in 2012. In GIF form.

Thanks for the animation. The ESS is Ground Zero of this poor refreeze season. Once it does refreeze extent will be playing catch-up.
All this open ocean will continue to play tricks with the freeze up.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #440 on: October 31, 2016, 04:55:59 AM »
I'd like to add my thanks as well A-Team for a very thorough and detailed post.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #441 on: October 31, 2016, 05:08:34 AM »
 I didn't know JAXA had this thickness map. I kind of stumbled onto it.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #442 on: October 31, 2016, 05:24:57 AM »
Yes that was a great post A-Team thank you!!

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #443 on: October 31, 2016, 06:51:18 AM »
Is there an approximate date around which the Bering Strait closes?

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #444 on: October 31, 2016, 07:11:07 AM »
You can decide for yourself what is "fairly typical."
Eyeballing, 3.1 for the past climate, 3.8 for the new climate of the past ten years, which was the point.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #445 on: October 31, 2016, 07:13:17 AM »
I didn't know JAXA had this thickness map. I kind of stumbled onto it.


I hope that map is wrong  :o :o :o :o :o :o
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oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #446 on: October 31, 2016, 10:24:59 AM »
So I've been assuming the recent refreeze stall and Chukchi extent drop is mainly the resut of a cyclone on the pacific side. Is this more or less correct?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #447 on: October 31, 2016, 10:45:50 AM »
So I've been assuming the recent refreeze stall and Chukchi extent drop is mainly the resut of a cyclone on the pacific side. Is this more or less correct?

As the stationary cyclones tend to raise the waters under them they help the Pacific waters to enter arctic, so kind of yes i'd say. The A-team post shows one of these surges, i think. Moreover the cyclones bring also atmospheric warmth to arctic if theyre in a correct position, so still kind of yes. There could be more to it than i get though
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 10:59:41 AM by Pmt111500 »

Jim Pettit

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #448 on: October 31, 2016, 11:54:19 AM »
Thanks for challenging my eyeball assessment. I was impressed by the quote by Christian Wolf (Ben Affleck) from The Accountant: "I don't guess." Therefore, to remove all doubt I took the daily ice extent data published by NSIDC, dropped it into a spread sheet, identified the minimum for each year since 1979, and created a formula to calculate the min-to-date increase for every published date. I admit I didn't take the 5-day moving average but the daily amounts should be good enough for this exercise. Here is the min-to-date increase for October 29 every year since 1979 in million km2. You can decide for yourself what is "fairly typical." When Oct 29 data isn't available for a given year I am reporting Oct 30.

1979          2.902
1980          2.378
1981          2.817
1982          3.038
1983          3.110
1984          3.037
1985          3.080
1986          3.195
1987          2.819
1988          2.831
1989          3.154
1990          3.867
1991          3.412
1992          2.860
1993          3.688
1994          3.136
1995          3.806
1996          2.542
1997          2.860
1998          2.977
1999          4.046
2000          3.389
2001          2.685
2002          3.554
2003          3.077
2004          3.217
2005          3.810
2006          4.353
2007          3.938
2008          4.559
2009          3.339
2010          3.486
2011          3.947
2012          4.299
2013          3.733
2014          3.850
2015          3.902
2016          3.028

As Arachmid noted in a comment adjacent to yours, "I find it interesting that the older you go in the data, the lower growth there is. It makes sense, since the minimum was much higher in the 80's and much lower in recent years."

Indeed.

I'm of the opinion that comparisons to much older years for this particular metric are truly a case of apples to oranges. IOW, of course post-minimum extent increases in the past weren't as dramatic as they have been recently, as there was simply more extent to begin with. But that wasn't the case in 2007, say, or 2012, recent years for which comparisons to 2016 are far more valid. That 2016 had so little extent at minimum and is nevertheless lagging far behind those other years is very telling of something more than "fairly typical". I'm not crying, "Catastrophe!"; I'm just noting the oddity of the current situation--and utterly odd it is.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #449 on: October 31, 2016, 11:57:45 AM »
The Beaufort, Chukchi and Barents seas are seasonally ice-free now, with all that that implies....

Shouldn't it be Kara Sea instead of Barents Sea? Most of the Barents Sea is year-round ice-free.