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Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #550 on: November 06, 2016, 12:07:55 AM »
Quote
I still don't see how there's a link to the primary atmospheric circulation cells of the Earth breaking down.

I don't know enough about the details of atmospheric circulations, but how can it not affect it? Atmospheric circulations are ruled by temperature/pressure and gravity. Gravity has not changed but temperature/pressure has.  They have been at relative equilibrium for thousand s of years and then in one hundred years we inject a heck of a lot of heat into the system.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

aslan

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #551 on: November 06, 2016, 12:38:07 AM »
...
And the trend:


...
Aslan, I am really intrigued by this nice time series. A question: why do you include only the sector of longitudes E120° to 270° ( 90° West I  guess).
Is it possible to get similar plots of specific and/or relative humidity at tropopause pressure altitude of 200 hPa. Just to see if indeed we can see the expected humidity increase (with a small drop of relative humidity, see link below) given the temperature plot that Zack Labe was showing.
http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WaterVapor/water_vapor3.php

Yep, it's from the reanalysis:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

Why 120°E to 270°WE? because plots from reanalysis are only possible over latitude - longitude box with a simple definition (from east to west and north to south). Extending the box would have taken into account snow lands or the open Atlantic. And I was too lazy to done my own calculations and integrate OLRs over the central Arctic stricto sensu ^^" One BIG caveat is the validity of the reanalysis before the satellite era for such parameters. Before the late 70s, data are probably totally unreliable.

Reanalysis also give humidity parameters. Near the surface, it is generally good with some caution, up in the atmosphere it is sometimes less reliable. Tropopause is lower in Arctic in October, generally around 300 hPa. So here it is for the level 400 hPa, acknowledging that data are more reliable in recent years:



And precipitable water:



Quote
I haven't been able to find references which show how H2O radiative forcing changes with increases in humidity - anyone have any hints? I'd like to at least ballpark how much additional heat is being trapped

Perhaps here, from Pierrehumbert 1995:

https://scienceofdoom.com/2012/12/23/clouds-water-vapor-part-five-back-of-the-envelope-calcs-from-pierrehumbert/

Or here:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3611.1
ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/water/annrev00.pdf

And so to continue with radiative flux, downward IRs at surface for 2016:



The normal:



2012:



En 2003 -high water vapor content also according to the reanalysis-:


Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #552 on: November 06, 2016, 01:04:55 AM »
Excessive anomalous temperatures up to 20°C are expected to continue in the Arctic over at least the next 7-days.

Animation at the link:  https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/794561803141267456
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Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #553 on: November 06, 2016, 02:03:59 AM »
The SIE is now 800k km2 below the previous record and 1.6mln km2 below 2015 for Oct 4th. The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #554 on: November 06, 2016, 02:12:53 AM »
Speaking of...
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #555 on: November 06, 2016, 02:24:53 AM »
Aikimox 31 Oct
To answer your question I quote my post at Neven1 which is as follows:-

"The deployment of any new technology will almost certainly be 'out of time'. Time is of the essence.

I find it difficult to imagine how a catastrophic event can now be avoided and the question on my mind is whether or not a catastrophic event will trigger the necessary global response to avert a cataclysmic event.

In the context of this discussion I would suggest the following definitions:-
Catastrophic: A severe global dislocation of all systems that support life as we know it today.
Cataclysmic: An extinction or near extinction event.

I am 72 years old and do not expect my children and grandchildren to enjoy such longevity of life. I desperately hope that I am wrong but unless there is an unforseen interceding event I fear the worst.

A Prediction from a peer reviewed scientific paper I read some years ago...'The Arctic Ocean will be ice free at a point in time in 2020 + or - 4 years'.

I fear that what is about to happen and the consequencies will not play out over a couple of lifetimes."

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #556 on: November 06, 2016, 04:35:09 AM »
Big gains in the Arctic today. Century drop in the Antarctic.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #557 on: November 06, 2016, 04:51:14 AM »
For October, there is an interesting point. According to the reanalysis, IRs radiations to space where not exceptionally high. This is an argument for a strong feedback from water vapor and clouds which insulate the Arctic. As said, moisture is everywhere. Advection of warm air and water was probably a factor also. But datas show that Arctic is not radiating energy back to space, despite polar night and warmer than average temperature. Difference with 2007 is stark.


This does not bode well. Arctic is probably not loosing a lot of energy currently. So perhaps the sluggish growth will not be compensated by a lower heat content, which is bad new for 2017. And with current order of magnitude of heat transport, Arctic is probably able to sustain itself trough the polar night without sea ice. We are one month and half before solstice, and sea ice is still not able to grow on the Pacific side. For the latest point, there is still a bit of time, but after a blue summer, it seems likely that clouds and water vapor will be able to insulate Arctic through the polar night.
Related article her:
www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/stratosphere-shrinks-as-record-breaking-temperatures-continue-because-of-climate-change-20161027-gscd0w.html
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #558 on: November 06, 2016, 07:42:18 AM »
Yep agree, I don't think this year will put us at the other side of the hill, it will still take time (and CO2...) for this. For the clouds, yes the pattern was favorable, but water vapor reached an extreme peak in October 2016 in the Arctic and I don't see this being only due to advection.
CO2  is already there - it's just a matter of time.

What's different between now and the late Pliocene, is how fast the CO2 has appeared.  In the Pliocene, nature did the metaphorical equivalent of lifting a basket of eggs, and putting it on the top shelf of the pantry.  In the Anthropocene, humanity has taken a similar basket of eggs, and just chucked it up on to the shelf, with expected fallout.

The entire system is reacting to the very abrupt input of energy.  As we only see it in terms of human lifetimes, it doesn't seem abrupt - 150 years or so for most of the change - but it is.  The weather/temperature chaos in the Arctic is emblematic of this, as the system can't equilibrate fast enough to distribute the additional heat.  We're talking hundreds of zettajoules (10^21 joules) of additional heat here - monstrous amounts of energy - all trying to find places to go. 

It may be we're seeing the climatic equivalent of a dam bursting (failure of the Hadley, Ferrel and Arctic cells).  This now translates into 20C+ temperature anomalies across the entire Arctic.  We were excited *last* year looking at those temperatures hitting about half of the basin at a time in waves.  Now its the *entire* basin, and persistent.

(Reference to give you the source of my heat uptake numbers)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Ocean-heat-uptake---Grantham-BP-15.pdf

One thing to consider is that any paleoclimate scenario allowed for a slower change in the rate of GHG forcing within a primoridal earth system.  That means that there was approximately 300% the total mass of bony fish in the oceans and at least 1000% more carbon represented in primordial forests. 

Due to the slower rate-change of forcing, the oceans were not significantly out of balance to the scale of top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance.  The rate of forcing change was proportional to the overturning circulation.  This is not the case today.

In other words, the earth has never experienced a change in CO2 levels at this rate, not in geologic time.  We simply do not have a roadmap that can give us comfort to be sure that we will not experience a sudden and catastrophic transformation of our global atmospheric circulation patterns under these modern circumstances.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #559 on: November 06, 2016, 07:44:54 AM »
The point Zack was making is that recent studies, in part, refute this claim.  These studies are not getting as much media attention.  Perhaps because they don't show how the effects of climate change account for what we're currently seeing in simple or more seemingly obvious terms, like loss of Barents–Kara sea ice.
I read that study earlier. Unfortunately I fail to see the "reality check" as you wrote in your earlier post, also how a statistical and modeled approach explains what's been going on this year in and above the Arctic. But I was also confused while reading a study with Fyfe about the "slowdown" a few years back, so I might be narrow minded here or simply not understanding.
I haven't read the discussion you referred to in your earlier comment so I can't comment on Zachary Labe's point or the "other studies". But I'm aware that there's an ongoing debate.

There's nothing simple here. Add the anomalous QBO this year, more are working on it now, sparc provides regular updates on their site. Thought about starting a thread about the QBO and related science, but so many other things interfere in life, today I will have to spend the day shovelling snow. We're looking at a record warm 2016, a negative AO since early October, a record low ASI, a record early PV-split, a record early PV-displacement. Let's see how this winter unfolds, hopefully we'll be wiser but right now I have no use for a statistical approach to that white stuff outside, in early november, and below 60°N. ;)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #560 on: November 06, 2016, 11:07:22 AM »
The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.

The NSIDC daily number has already "hit record low" a couple of times:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249

Most recently 16.29 million km² on November 3rd. The 5 day trailing average may well follow suit shortly.


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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #561 on: November 06, 2016, 03:54:43 PM »
e first animation compares refreezing in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Bering Strait and East Siberian Seas from the first of October to the 4th of November for the years 2013-2015. The key year 2012 is not yet available for this time frame.

The current year 2016 is only partly available but the second animation (kaleidoscopic about the Bering Strait) fills in some of the missing dates using 6 days of forward predictions of hycom and 22 additional dates of simulated open water to bring the time series to Dec 1st by gradually ’refreezing’ in from the edge of the ice pack on the last hycom of Nov 9th.

On Dec 1st, only 36% of the open water of Nov 1st is left in the 2016 panel but this is still 141% of that left on the same date in 2015. As projected, the anomaly has persisted but not worsened (relative to earlier years) even as refreezing has advanced.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #562 on: November 06, 2016, 04:22:17 PM »
Aikimox 31 Oct
To answer your question I quote my post at Neven1 which is as follows:-

"The deployment of any new technology will almost certainly be 'out of time'. Time is of the essence.

I find it difficult to imagine how a catastrophic event can now be avoided and the question on my mind is whether or not a catastrophic event will trigger the necessary global response to avert a cataclysmic event.

In the context of this discussion I would suggest the following definitions:-
Catastrophic: A severe global dislocation of all systems that support life as we know it today.
Cataclysmic: An extinction or near extinction event.

I am 72 years old and do not expect my children and grandchildren to enjoy such longevity of life. I desperately hope that I am wrong but unless there is an unforseen interceding event I fear the worst.

A Prediction from a peer reviewed scientific paper I read some years ago...'The Arctic Ocean will be ice free at a point in time in 2020 + or - 4 years'.

I fear that what is about to happen and the consequencies will not play out over a couple of lifetimes."

Actually, an intercession wouldn't be unforeseen, it's predicted at Revelations 11:18. If you choose to believe the Earth has a Creator, it only makes sense, He wouldn't let it be destroyed.

I know that's OT, but it kept coming up. I will explain anything on that in further detail, in private.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #563 on: November 06, 2016, 05:01:22 PM »
I generally concur - CO2's the match and tinder, H2O the accelerant and primary fuel.  Your phase shift may be tied to some crucial absolute humidity saturation level; with global temperatures generally up about a degree and a half, that's close to a 10% overall potential increase in atmospheric carrying capacity for H2O.  As the heat is not universally distributed, the increase is disproportionately at high latitudes.

I think we need to keep this in mind - those high arctic temperatures also mean 200-500% increase in absolute moisture carrying capacity.  E.g. going from ~248K to ~262K as DMI 80N suggests, our theoretical max H2O goes from 0.5 grams/liter of atmosphere to about 1.75 - a 250% increase.

Now, we probably aren't consistently pegging humidity at 100%, but even considering that, we have both more non-sensible heat (from H2O phase changes) *and* increased radiative forcing. 

(I haven't been able to find references which show how H2O radiative forcing changes with increases in humidity - anyone have any hints? I'd like to at least ballpark how much additional heat is being trapped).

OK then, first test...Is the Arctic unusually cloudy this Winter?

The next question for this Winter will be whether enough freezes up and becomes desert to get the surface temperature in the far North to fall to near normal levels, or will the surrounding oceans provide enough absolute humidity to prevent any significant region of desert conditions?

P.S.  It looks like there was an attempted phase change in the Fall of 2012; which failed.  No other year looks similar.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 05:07:30 PM by Jim Williams »

etienne

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #564 on: November 06, 2016, 06:02:37 PM »

Actually, an intercession wouldn't be unforeseen, it's predicted at Revelations 11:18. If you choose to believe the Earth has a Creator, it only makes sense, He wouldn't let it be destroyed.

I know that's OT, but it kept coming up. I will explain anything on that in further detail, in private.

Hello,

I have here a language question. What do you mean by "intercession" ? If it is a hope that extranatural forces would save earth, I am skeptical. I wouldn't jump from the brigde and pray to stay alive, but I have the feeling that it's what we are doing with climate change.

Maybe we could start a theological topics. For example in the "AGW in general/Science", but maybe it's a bad idea.

Best regards,

Etienne

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #565 on: November 06, 2016, 06:10:55 PM »
The intercession of God is not something to look forward to. Apparently He just killed 300 innocent people in Italy because of new laws on civil unions. Not the kind of psycho killer I'd hold out for.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #566 on: November 06, 2016, 06:12:48 PM »
@ Sleepy

Discovering other explanations for the changing AO and PV, for me was a kind of reality check because, as you indicate, the science on this matter is not settled, and my hypothesis would go a lot further if I base it on more settled science. 

I too am inclined to go with a dynamical modeling over statistical modeling given all the record breaking and changing dynamics we are seeing in the Arctic and beyond.  It was funny after reading your original comment, I started looking for info/research on how the QBO could be related - and then in your second comment i saw that you are also interested in it  :)  It's particularly interesting to me because it provides another possible way for far-flung dynamics to interconnect or teleconnect with the Arctic.

Perhaps Zachary himself could chime in here?
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 06:35:21 PM by Ice Shieldz »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #567 on: November 06, 2016, 06:16:24 PM »
Re: etienne,       I drive a truck that drops from 6 cylinder to 4 cylinder every chance possible so as to save gas. I just spent a lot of money on LED  bulbs that use less energy, a lot less. I recycle and try to be responsible in every way possible. I like brilliant ideas that help the environment, but I know my limitations.


P.S. I really would like an electric automobile of some sort, but these are not yet readily available in my area, but will be here soon. They are starting to install some charging stations.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 06:36:22 PM by Tigertown »
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #568 on: November 06, 2016, 06:29:16 PM »
The intercession of God is not something to look forward to. Apparently He just killed 300 innocent people in Italy because of new laws on civil unions. Not the kind of psycho killer I'd hold out for.

For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #569 on: November 06, 2016, 07:01:22 PM »
For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.

Religious discussion are henceforth excommunicated from this thread. Amen.  ;)
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #570 on: November 06, 2016, 07:50:40 PM »
I've updated all of my PIOMAS sea ice volume and thickness figures here: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/.

Here's an animation of PIOMAS October sea ice thickness from 1979 through 2016...
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 07:56:52 PM by Blizzard92 »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #571 on: November 06, 2016, 08:00:50 PM »
For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.

Religious discussion are henceforth excommunicated from this thread. Amen.  ;)

Thank you.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #572 on: November 06, 2016, 09:14:49 PM »

For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.

Religious discussion are henceforth excommunicated from this thread. Amen.  ;)
Ok. Other threads in the rest section might be used for this still, or so i understand. Is there a demand for a new religion or can the old ones manage the results of their actions?

Pi26

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #573 on: November 06, 2016, 09:37:27 PM »
The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.

The NSIDC daily number has already "hit record low" a couple of times:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249

Most recently 16.29 million km² on November 3rd. The 5 day trailing average may well follow suit shortly.

Really? Twice as much open waters to date than usual at Beaufort, Chuckchi and East Sibirian Sea?
700000 km2 more open waters? I think these waters have to realease at least 50000 billions kWh of energy for a single meter of ice there - and perhaps these waters even could release far more energy.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 10:45:18 PM by Pi26 »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #574 on: November 06, 2016, 10:28:23 PM »
For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.

Religious discussion are henceforth excommunicated from this thread. Amen.  ;)

And given that commandment, may the deity of your choice bless you and keep you during these turbulent times.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #575 on: November 06, 2016, 10:35:04 PM »
The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.

The NSIDC daily number has already "hit record low" a couple of times:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249

Most recently 16.29 million km² on November 3rd. The 5 day trailing average may well follow suit shortly.

Really? Twice as much open waters to date than usual at Beaufort, Chuckchi and East Sibirian Sea?
700000 km2 more open waters? I think these waters have to realease at least 50000 billions kWh of energy for a single meter of ice there?
Yes, the 5 day trailing graph is now showing some 80k km2 below 1986, gratz on another record low. I wonder if there's any link between the climate chaos we are witnessing and the fact that about 70% mansions in our area are currently up for sale....

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #576 on: November 06, 2016, 11:00:02 PM »
The SIE will probably stay behind for a while or maybe the whole season, but we have had some strong gains the last few days. NSIDC came in at 7.858 for Nov. 5th and will hit 8 M pretty soon. The temps in the Beaufort and ESS are giving in slowly but still giving nonetheless, however much km2's  that will add up upon freezing. However, I have my doubts about the other side of the Arctic, as I along with others have suspicion that the Atlantic is keeping a good supply of warmer waters into the better portion of those seas.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #577 on: November 07, 2016, 12:14:34 AM »
I think before too long, we will have things pretty well refrozen in the central basin and directly connected peripheral seas.  What will remain then to determine if we have a new "Min/Max" will be tied to how the extent spreads across the Bering, Okhotsk, Kara, Barents and Greenland seas, along with Baffin Bay.

On the Atlantic side, I see a clear challenge to the ice spreading much further than it has already, outside of the Kara.  SST's are still pretty astonishingly high.  There are two upwelling hot spots where the temperatures are at or above 14C (!).  Much of the rest is 2-4C or warmer.  That doesn't bode well for either ice drifting into those regions, and suggests that there will be energy sources for high latitude storms right through the freezing season.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #578 on: November 07, 2016, 10:02:46 AM »
JD - I agree, and it's the result of those high latitude storms that I'm interested in.
The Arctic may not have 'tipped' just yet, but it's one very sick puppy.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #579 on: November 07, 2016, 10:04:54 AM »
Ice Shieldz; yes, the teleconnections are interesting. Based on my earlier commments (both here and in my own country) the interest is rather low.

Blizzard92; Nice animation but the attachement is too big so it won't animate. I took the liberty to shrink it, also slowed it down a bit from 2012. Hope you don't mind.

Click to animate.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #580 on: November 07, 2016, 10:05:22 AM »
Really? Twice as much open waters to date than usual at Beaufort, Chuckchi and East Sibirian Sea?
700000 km2 more open waters?

The Beaufort Sea in particular is now suddenly playing catch up.

Meanwhile in other news PIOMAS volume on October 31st was lowest for the date (since their records began), joining Arctic & Antarctic area/extent in that position:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/11/global-sea-ice-at-record-low-levels/
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Okono

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #581 on: November 07, 2016, 12:03:16 PM »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #582 on: November 07, 2016, 12:40:38 PM »
Thinking out loud here. If we do lose the older thicker ice ( currently poised over Fram/Barentsz) then are we not left with a pack similar to what would reform after a B.O.E.?

Should winter prove similar to last year ( warm and disruptive to the ice) then we may well be in a position that does not demand a 'perfect melt storm synoptic' to bring about ice free conditions? Could we find that the ice proves to be as durable as that in Bering/Baffin/Hudson?
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CalamityCountdown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #583 on: November 07, 2016, 02:05:29 PM »
magnamentis posted this link a couple of days ago, but if you have not viewed it, it's worth checking out this animation


Published on Oct 28, 2016
Arctic sea ice has not only been shrinking in surface area in recent years, it’s becoming younger and thinner as well. In this animation, where the ice cover almost looks gelatinous as it pulses through the seasons, cryospheric scientist Dr. Walt Meier of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center describes how the sea ice has undergone fundamental changes during the era of satellite measurements.

An updated version of this visualization can be downloaded in HD here: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4510

Blizzard92

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #584 on: November 07, 2016, 04:30:58 PM »
Ice Shieldz; yes, the teleconnections are interesting. Based on my earlier commments (both here and in my own country) the interest is rather low.

Blizzard92; Nice animation but the attachement is too big so it won't animate. I took the liberty to shrink it, also slowed it down a bit from 2012. Hope you don't mind.

Click to animate.

Ah thanks! I keep forgetting about modifying the file size.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #585 on: November 07, 2016, 04:49:42 PM »

Arctic sea ice has not only been shrinking in surface area in recent years, it’s becoming younger and thinner as well. In this animation, where the ice cover almost looks gelatinous as it pulses through the seasons, cryospheric scientist Dr. Walt Meier of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center describes how the sea ice has undergone fundamental changes during the era of satellite measurements.


The halocline in the Arctic is critical for sea ice preservation and is supported by the input of freshwater from the summer and by the melting of ice. The mechanism of freezing produces briny water that sinks during the freeze, and melting of the less briny ice produces freshwater that floats and inhibits vertical mixing. As the ice thins and becomes younger and 'less fresh' I would think the salinity gradient will deteriorate and make it easier to mix the the surface of the ocean with deeper warmer and saltier water.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #586 on: November 07, 2016, 08:00:06 PM »
The Beaufort is cooling down and will be next to freeze over, imo. ESS will be delayed a little bit, but soon to follow.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #587 on: November 07, 2016, 10:44:20 PM »
For sure it will, but we are in the second week of November and still behind the lowest on record by some 650k km2. We have been in the unprecedented for a long time now. The new ice will be thin, the region is still very dynamic and might stay this way well into the freezing season. 

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #588 on: November 07, 2016, 11:01:03 PM »
Sorry for double-posting. Couldn't figure out how to attach files to the previous posts.

Look at this. All the way into mid November! These are basically mild summer temps.

The average for November is around 0 to-5C!

« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 11:15:07 PM by Aikimox »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #589 on: November 07, 2016, 11:17:38 PM »
DMI 80N temps bounced back up again too.  Running about 13 C over climatology right now.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #590 on: November 07, 2016, 11:50:26 PM »
A look at the spatial distribution of temperature anomalies so far this November over the Arctic Ocean... (from  https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/795684077168771072)

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #591 on: November 07, 2016, 11:54:49 PM »
A strong low pressure system is currently entering the Arctic Basin through the Fram Strait.

GFS predicts it to bottom out in about 12 hours at around 966 hPa.

How much of an effect will this have on current and future sea ice formation on the Atlantic side?

Waves disrupting ice formation?
Waves and Ekman pumping mixing in warmer, saltier water from the Atlantic near the ice edge?

I don't feel I can quantify these effects even at a level to determine whether they are significant.

Usual gut feeling is the Winter is long and cold and tends to wash out any potential effects on next year's melt season of the weather at this time of year.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #592 on: November 07, 2016, 11:57:28 PM »
Looks like the Baffin Island lakes are finally about to ice over.


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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #593 on: November 08, 2016, 12:28:08 AM »
Sorry for double-posting. Couldn't figure out how to attach files to the previous posts.

Look at this. All the way into mid November! These are basically mild summer temps.

The average for November is around 0 to-5C!

Holy... I spent a couple of years in Calgary. Three years ago in December it got down to -40C and two Septembers ago we had a more than 4" of wet snow.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #594 on: November 08, 2016, 12:34:06 AM »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #595 on: November 08, 2016, 12:36:48 AM »
Q: which season does this temperature graph for the northern polar region show

A: SPRING  :o

BTW a nice example about the impact on the graphic's scale/cutout for opinion building if intended which of course is not the case here, just a little joke with a prise of truth.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #596 on: November 08, 2016, 01:03:20 AM »
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #597 on: November 08, 2016, 02:55:14 AM »
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic

I'm not qualified enough to know whether it's rare for specific storm systems to get slurped up like that, but I suspect it happens from time to time.

I would still like to see some research, past or present, that indicates collapse of atmospheric circulation on that magnitude is even a theoretical possibility.  Perturbations, sure, but I've been perturbed since the day I was

"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

Over very long time periods (hundreds of millions of years), a tectonic uplift can significantly alter their major elements, such as the jet stream, and plate tectonics may shift ocean currents. During the extremely hot climates of the Mesozoic, a third desert belt may have existed at the Equator. But, the overall latitudinal pattern of Earth's climate has not changed."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation

I read this to indicate that the mode of atmospheric circulation is exceptionally stable and we would not expect any of the relevant variables to be affected by global warming.

I'm definitely willing to be proven wrong, but I remain skeptical about the claims.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #598 on: November 08, 2016, 04:02:58 AM »

"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

"Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little" With Global warming heating changes. With arctic amplification heat difference changes dramatically, changing the temperature difference from the pole to the equator. Atmospheric depth also changes with changes in temperature. Its a physical impossibility for atmospheric circulation not to change with global warming.

The real question is, will the change be significant? That depends on the warming being significant enough. How significant is the warming we are experiencing? For this I will use a non conventional scientific source. XKCD. https://xkcd.com/1732/which goes back 20k years.

If you wanna see further back in time then see the allpaleotemps graph in wikipedia. Here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png

Atmospheric circulation is remarkable stable, for as long as the earth size, rotation rate and heating is remarkably stable. For hundreds of thousands of years heating was stable, with glacial and inter glacial periods happening at very slow rates (in human terms). In the last 10,000 years, the Holocene, the climate has been also extremely stable. But AGW changed that. Now atmospheric circulation must change.


Quote
Over very long time periods (hundreds of millions of years), a tectonic uplift can significantly alter their major elements, such as the jet stream, and plate tectonics may shift ocean currents.

Global warming is already shifting ocean currents.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #599 on: November 08, 2016, 04:21:41 AM »
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic

I'm not qualified enough to know whether it's rare for specific storm systems to get slurped up like that, but I suspect it happens from time to time.

<snippage>

I read this to indicate that the mode of atmospheric circulation is exceptionally stable and we would not expect any of the relevant variables to be affected by global warming.

I'm definitely willing to be proven wrong, but I remain skeptical about the claims.

Well, we have 2 years worth of pretty compelling observational evidence of storms being "shlurped" far more than "time to time".

You need to keep in mind the baseline temperatures in the Arctic, and just how far they currently are off that baseline - consistently 10C above normal, with some areas skyrocketing to 30+C above normal.  That would be the equivalent here in Seattle of us suddenly getting a 40C heat wave.

It's persistent and consistent - if you look at last year's (2015) DMI graph over winter and check the spikes against weather maps, you will see a fairly major storm associated with each one.  This year, there isn't even a pause.

As a Geologist, I have a fundamental problem with your "exceptionally stable" assertion.  That position is based in the paradigm of incrementalism - as my old Zoology prof once put it "Natura Non Facit Saltum" - Nature does not make leaps.

Given everything else being equal, that is the correct assumption - that the variables driving climate - insolation, chemistry, topology - will vary slowly and the corresponding behavior of systems will follow similarly in train.

Only they *aren't*, or specifically chemistry is not.

To a great degree topology is not either - as we have massively changed forestation and made other changes which affect heat uptake and albedo.  We have literally drained seas (the Aral) and by way of that utterly and probably permanently changed the climate over vast stretches of central Asia.

So, your variables on which your incrementalist conclusion is based... have already slipped their leashes and are running off with the controls to the system.

There is massive hysteresis in our climate right now; the last time CO2 levels were this high, (3.6 MYA), Average summer temps around the shores of the arctic were 15C; we've got a long way to go before the inputs from that extra CO2 reach a stable relationship with the net enthalpy in the system.  Until then, it will be attempting to equilibrate, in increasingly dramatic ways.  Even after that, the relative "stability" that will return will be far more enegetic - that's determined purely by the mechanics of water and how much bigger a load of moisture the atmosphere will be capable of carrying.

So, I'd say, if you think atmospheric circulation will remain stable in the face of increasing levels of CO2, you need a more convincing argument than something dug out of a Wikipedia article.
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