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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #600 on: November 08, 2016, 06:07:30 AM »
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic
I have read a tremendous amount about this happening, but this is the best visual that I have seen of it. We have no doubt been seeing the effects of this lately, as it has contributed to the anomalies.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #601 on: November 08, 2016, 06:30:13 AM »
yeah, I have been watching this development for 3 years now, this is by far the most dramatic impact I have seen.  The blob of red moving into the arctic circle in this animation represents air that should be at Tropopause height.  the color means that it is above freezing.  Obviously the Tropopause has lifted in the region, the lapse rate effects are what we are seeing on the surface.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #602 on: November 08, 2016, 06:36:14 AM »
"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

The last I have seen, we do not have a good understanding of cloud behavior during glacial maximums.  Recent shifts in observed cloud fractions show that the hadley cell is expanding much more rapidly than expected.  This years abnormal winter temps and observed polar jet stream behavior are perfectly clear.  The arctic cell is collapsing.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2828.html
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 06:47:43 AM by jai mitchell »
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Aikimox

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #603 on: November 08, 2016, 06:41:42 AM »
"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

The last I have seen, we do not have a good understanding of cloud behavior during glacial maximums.  Recent shifts in observed cloud fractions show that the hadley cell is expanding much more rapidly than expected.  This years abnormal winter temps and observed polar jet stream behavior are perfectly clear.  The arctic cell is collapsing.

What do you mean by collapsing? Care to elaborate on this a bit more?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #604 on: November 08, 2016, 10:52:06 AM »
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic
I would still like to see some research, past or present, that indicates collapse of atmospheric circulation on that magnitude is even a theoretical possibility.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html
As I understand this, it's a real possibility if we slow down this planets rotational speed to the same as Venus. And it is a theoretical possivility if we get the same amounts of greenhouse gasses as during PETM, but as far as I know no-one has successfully modeled this with todays configuration of planet Earth.

Here's an article at NASA from earlier this year:
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/expanding-tropics-pushing-high-altitude-clouds-towards-poles
Attaching fig3 below and here's a quote from that paper:
Quote
This study concentrates on the cloud and radiation response to dynamical shifts that may be caused by natural variability patterns, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or anthropogenic influences such as ozone depletion and greenhouse warming. The analysis results suggest that the observed multidecadal Southern Hemisphere cloud field shifts are more likely related to tropical expansion than to a poleward shift in the storm tracks. This result, along with the strong correlations of the Hadley cell edge with the midlatitude high cloud field, highlights a prominent role of the Hadley circulation in affecting midlatitude cloud shifts and indicates that tropical expansion, rather than baroclinic jet shifts, might be the more important driver of midlatitude radiative feedbacks resulting from cloud-dynamics interactions. It is important to note, however, that the dynamical interactions between the Hadley cell and the midlatitude jets are complex and not yet fully understood. Our analysis also shows that the high cloud amount is the cloud property that more strongly responds to circulation changes and that the radiative effect of poleward high cloud shifts can differ significantly, even in sign, depending in part on the properties of the background cloud field in which the high clouds are embedded.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #605 on: November 08, 2016, 11:26:55 AM »
For what it's worth, the daily average temp anomalies have dropped a little. +4.41 C for the Arctic and   +3.04 C for the Antarctic. These seemed to have ease downward a little each day lately. I don' t know if the cold Arctic night can reverse the trends we see developing, as it sets in deeper into the winter or what, but it looks like at the least, there's a rough year ahead.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #606 on: November 08, 2016, 01:24:01 PM »
See also UK Met office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/quasibiennialoscillation - Sept 8th

The normal flow of air high up in the atmosphere over the equator, known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), was seen to break down earlier this year. These winds in the The stratosphere are found high above the tropics, their direction and strength changes in a regular two-to three-year cycle which provides forecasters with an indication of what weather to expect in Northern Europe. Westerly winds are known to increase the chance of warm and wet conditions, while easterlies bring drier and colder weather.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #607 on: November 08, 2016, 03:00:57 PM »
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic

I'm not qualified enough to know whether it's rare for specific storm systems to get slurped up like that, but I suspect it happens from time to time.

I would still like to see some research, past or present, that indicates collapse of atmospheric circulation on that magnitude is even a theoretical possibility.  Perturbations, sure, but I've been perturbed since the day I was

"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

I'm definitely willing to be proven wrong, but I remain skeptical about the claims.

This page has some summaries of plausible theories for what could cause an equable climate.

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/climate.html

One of them is that Hadley cells extend all the way to the poles. Another is that tropical storms could bring heat to the poles, but says that phenomena hasn't been observed and is very unlikely that a tropical storm could transfer heat to the Arctic. However, these pages were obviously posted before what we've been seeing this past winter and this fall.

Is it possible that it could be a combination of the various theories of an equable climate that could make it happen? The weakening of the jet stream and the increase in the magnitude of the Rossby waves (one theory) now allows tropical storms to carry their heat and moisture into the arctic (another theory), helped along by the wintertime convective cloud feedback that prevents winter cooling (another theory)?

I have no idea how plausible that is, but I whenever I remember that systems don't usually change in linear incremental ways, I really wonder how fast this system is going to flip to a new state?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #608 on: November 08, 2016, 03:29:43 PM »
Refreezing of the Bering Chukchi Beaufort ESS is currently delayed (offset) 13 days with respect to the 2015 season, ie 895,000 sq km on 07 Nov 16 versus 905000 sq km on 25 Oct 15.

As the ice pack has been shifting to the west and south in recent days, some of the 2016 daily losses do not represent refreezing but simply ice moving into the measurement zone. The average area of open water here over the last two weeks amounts to 9.5% of the Arctic Ocean.

The area of open water is gradually closing down, though when (and whether) the Chukchi will freeze over is unclear. Regions of elevated water temperatures will be diminishing over the next week per the hycom forecast (4th animation).

Wondering when the Arctic Ocean will be ‘seasonally ice free’ asks the wrong question, which quickly morphs into a silly rules game. Meanwhile sizable regions of the Arctic Ocean are seasonally ice-free already (along with land regions with early snow melt). Thus the Arctic (including permafrost lands) heat budget must already be affected, the real question being how much and what knock-on effects on lands to the south is this having already.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 03:37:37 PM by A-Team »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #609 on: November 08, 2016, 05:54:28 PM »
 ::)
compare

2016
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/03/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-126.08,82.13,355

2013
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/11/03/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-126.08,82.13,355

this is at 250mb heights, so toward the upper end of the Troposphere.

this is only 3 years worth of difference.  in another 10 we will see no polar cell integrity  the Coriolis effect isn't enough to prevent radiative forcing driven expansion of mid-latitdue heat energy into the upper latitudes and fluid dynamics from forcing this heat/moisture in regular catapult launches into the arctic circle.

« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 06:51:52 PM by jai mitchell »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #610 on: November 08, 2016, 05:59:04 PM »
"observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic" Jai when did this happen? Am I the only one who sees an 'attempt' for three northern cells to set up each rotating heat north?

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #611 on: November 08, 2016, 06:21:21 PM »
h/t to @ZLabe



source:  http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2016/11/arctic-warmth.html

Quote
The chart below shows the mean temperature anomaly for these 19 stations in each October since 1971.  Remarkably, the 19-station mean temperature in October 2016 was 5.6°C above the 1981-2010 normal and more than 2°C above the 2012 record
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #612 on: November 08, 2016, 07:58:14 PM »
So, I'd say, if you think atmospheric circulation will remain stable in the face of increasing levels of CO2, you need a more convincing argument than something dug out of a Wikipedia article.

I'm not making the claim that the old circulation model is or is not breaking.  I'm not refuting it nor promoting it.

It sounds like this is an aspect of paleoclimate that we have been able to determine with some confidence.  Has it not displayed stability throughout radical changes already?  The Deccan Traps, Chicxulub...

I use Wikipedia as a source because I'm no expert in the field and I know experts in the field do curate those articles aggressively.

I'm suggesting the burden of evidence falls on people who do make that claim.  If it doesn't and this should be patently obvious as something that is happening now, then I'm an idiot, and please sally forth.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #613 on: November 08, 2016, 08:01:16 PM »
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html
As I understand this, it's a real possibility if we slow down this planets rotational speed to the same as Venus. And it is a theoretical possivility if we get the same amounts of greenhouse gasses as during PETM, but as far as I know no-one has successfully modeled this with todays configuration of planet Earth.

Epic.  Thanks so much, Sleepy.  I'll go educate myself.  *That* is the magnitude of change I thought would be needed.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #614 on: November 08, 2016, 08:30:35 PM »
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html
As I understand this, it's a real possibility if we slow down this planets rotational speed to the same as Venus. And it is a theoretical possivility if we get the same amounts of greenhouse gasses as during PETM, but as far as I know no-one has successfully modeled this with todays configuration of planet Earth.

Epic.  Thanks so much, Sleepy.  I'll go educate myself.  *That* is the magnitude of change I thought would be needed.

the Eocene Model Intercomparison Project (EoMIP) has some interesting results that show an equitable climate happening at much lower CO2 ECS values, simply by changing the cloud reflectivity parameter.

Your assumptions of stability are not correct.  Nor are your assumptions regarding a paleoclimate analog to todays values.  This is due to the radical change in atmospheric forcing compared to sea surface temperatures.  We have never had a 100-year transformation of our planet's climate, perhaps outside of meteor impact. 

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #615 on: November 08, 2016, 08:36:46 PM »
Has it not displayed stability throughout radical changes already?  The Deccan Traps, Chicxulub...


I'm sure it destabilized then, but after millions of years it entered equillibrium again and allowed life to flourish again. This has happened many times in deep time.

Quote
I'm suggesting the burden of evidence falls on people who do make that claim.  If it doesn't and this should be patently obvious as something that is happening now, then I'm an idiot, and please sally forth.

 The physics say that if the temperature changes atmospheric circulation changes. Will the changes be significant? That's unknown, and until it happens speculative. If once it happens we find out that it will be significant, we're too late.

But I don't not see how those changes will possible be good. Nature does not work that way. WHen changes like these happen, usually mass extinction happen in the short term.

The burden of proof should be on those saying that the atmospheric currents are some how isolated from global warming, but because it is such a scary prospect, it is not.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #616 on: November 08, 2016, 08:52:27 PM »
Refreezing of the Bering Chukchi Beaufort ESS is currently delayed (offset) 13 days with respect to the 2015 season, ie 895,000 sq km on 07 Nov 16 versus 905000 sq km on 25 Oct 15.

As the ice pack has been shifting to the west and south in recent days, some of the 2016 daily losses do not represent refreezing but simply ice moving into the measurement zone. The average area of open water here over the last two weeks amounts to 9.5% of the Arctic Ocean.

The area of open water is gradually closing down, though when (and whether) the Chukchi will freeze over is unclear. Regions of elevated water temperatures will be diminishing over the next week per the hycom forecast (4th animation).

Wondering when the Arctic Ocean will be ‘seasonally ice free’ asks the wrong question, which quickly morphs into a silly rules game. Meanwhile sizable regions of the Arctic Ocean are seasonally ice-free already (along with land regions with early snow melt). Thus the Arctic (including permafrost lands) heat budget must already be affected, the real question being how much and what knock-on effects on lands to the south is this having already.
There is this elongated area a couple hundred kilometers north of Barrow where the waters seem holding much more heat than the surroundings, same area where clockwise eddies and jets showed up in summer making huge floes dance around the Big block. I suspect that a lot of heat was transported from Beaufort to Chukchi along this region, partly responsible of the ocean opening that started in Chukchi as late as August ... and wont refreeze almost until mid november!!
No ice of all those huge MYI floes that Healy cam photographed in mid July has survived. Nothing! (Well, perhaps small bits but I highly doubt it).
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 09:17:14 PM by seaicesailor »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #617 on: November 08, 2016, 09:23:15 PM »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #618 on: November 08, 2016, 11:10:14 PM »
Think 14m is a bit optimistic

13.5m will be an achievement

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #619 on: November 09, 2016, 02:52:36 AM »
Concentrate on this for a while.
Tap or click it or whatever, to animate.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #620 on: November 09, 2016, 06:09:47 AM »
Showing this to the punter in the street and exclaiming "Look  what's happening in the Arctic!"

 


Will  garner a likely response  of horror as a malevolent suppurating presence overwhelms the seacape and oozes into Canadian waters.

Can we have the palette reversed so it looks more like toast? :)



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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #621 on: November 09, 2016, 04:24:26 PM »
The Arctic seems to have lost the ability to to retain "cool" air. The Arctic air gets spilled all over the world. Though still cooler than elsewhere,it might be difficult to form ice thick enough to survive next summer.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #622 on: November 09, 2016, 04:40:16 PM »
Being the optimist that I am, I am happy to see that the arctic ice extent has more than doubled in 2 months since its minimum.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #623 on: November 09, 2016, 04:43:07 PM »
The Arctic is the most broken than we've ever known it and until it gets the humidity down the temps will keep high even once the basin is sealed in ice? The PV looks to be trying to set up between Greenland and Iceland and that ain't gonna work!!!
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #624 on: November 09, 2016, 05:04:03 PM »
Being the optimist that I am, I am happy to see that the arctic ice extent has more than doubled in 2 months since its minimum.

We are some 500k km2+ below the record low and over 1mln km2 below 2007 for Nov 9. 

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #625 on: November 09, 2016, 05:11:04 PM »
Being the optimist that I am, I am happy to see that the arctic ice extent has more than doubled in 2 months since its minimum.

We are some 500k km2+ below the record low and over 1mln km2 below 2007 for Nov 9.

There is no silver lining to be found in that very dark cloud of data.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #626 on: November 09, 2016, 06:33:03 PM »
Being the optimist that I am, I am happy to see that the arctic ice extent has more than doubled in 2 months since its minimum.
We are some 500k km2+ below the record low and over 1mln km2 below 2007 for Nov 9.
There is no silver lining to be found in that very dark cloud of data.

Yes there is.  Now it is Trump's problem.


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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #627 on: November 09, 2016, 06:40:52 PM »
The Arctic is the most broken than we've ever known it and until it gets the humidity down the temps will keep high even once the basin is sealed in ice? The PV looks to be trying to set up between Greenland and Iceland and that ain't gonna work!!!

I look at that word "until" and get a cold shiver down my back.  I would like to see the temperature north of 80 degrees fall to the climatology at least once this Winter, but it jumped high back at the very end of 2015 -- in midwinter.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #628 on: November 09, 2016, 11:09:20 PM »
Concentrate on this for a while.
Tap or click it or whatever, to animate.
I wouldn't be very surprised to see the ESS (at 2-3 weeks delay from recent years) and parts of the Chukchi freeze over a week from now, but I highly doubt that Hycom has the crystal ball required to model and predict that.

Looking at other regions usually active at this date, it seems Hudson and Baffin are starting their long climb up more or less along with other years, maybe a bit late, while Beaufort and Kara keep growing along the very late path of 2012. Only the ESS and Chukchi are in new territory for refreeze curve compared to the past 4 years.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #629 on: November 09, 2016, 11:25:56 PM »
Looking better, anyhow. I really think  thickness is going to be the big problem, more so than extent, in the long run for this freezing season. Extent can recover real fast, but not saying it will not come up short.        NSIDC posted SIE at 8.238M for Nov. 8th         Polarview Nov. 8th
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 11:31:30 PM by Tigertown »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #630 on: November 10, 2016, 10:16:56 AM »
Hm ... seems The Ronald is unstoppable now. Next target: the Artic :o

Doesn't look like AA, more like triple A.
Any news from those all important rating agencies on that? Fitch and ditch perhaps ...

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #631 on: November 10, 2016, 12:16:35 PM »
Holy Crap!

If I am reading that right, that is nearly +20 anomalies across most of the CAB.

For ice that saw it through this year - 2m thick or more, is bottom freeze even happening at all right now?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #632 on: November 10, 2016, 12:34:13 PM »
The time series below looks at graphical blending of various Arctic Ocean map products relevant to the the 2016/17 freezing season in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea regions. Only two of these offer forward-looking products (nullschool and hycom) and these predict at most a week out at variable resolution at moderate quality.

It is straightforward to merge various pairs of Hycom products since five of the animations use the same base map (after removing horizontal shifts) and palette. For example, if sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity maps are stacked, then a map of sea surface freezing temperature could be derived from the interaction of palette colors. This ranges from 0ºC for no salinity to -1.8ºC at 34 psu (pressure-adjusted calculator at http://www.csgnetwork.com/h2ofreezecalc.html).

In all likelihood, the outcome is already baked into hycom ice edge products (concentration and thickness) using air temperature forecasts as well. Somewhat mysteriously, the salinity map extends out under the ice pack where it cannot be measured by satellite, the sea surface there is a bit ambiguous, and salinity of water below the ice would be affected by brine rejection during freezing. Thus it might make more sense to mask out these areas and only make the calculation for open water.

The animation shows the outcome for the predictive regime for eight days out to Nov 16th.  On the technical side, the three hycom gifs need to first be ‘unoptimized’, converted from indexed color to RGB, trimmed to the 631 x 631 map, tiled up into long single images, interleaved as layers, interacted, then sliced back down to individual days, cropped to a relevant area, re-sized to forum width, and layered back up into animation frames. Four interaction options are shown for Nov 12th. One of these could be chosen and re-paletted for sea surface freezing point
 
The second blend places nullschool sea surface temperature and its anomaly under an open water mask taken from two November dates of UHH AMSR2. It would be helpful if nullschool allowed palette expansion along the lines of Worldview as the differences are fairly slight. A variant on this would replace open water on predicted hycom sea ice thickness with surface wind or air temperature from RTG-SST / NCEP (nullschool) which hycom doesn’t furnish. RTG goes out four days vs six with hycom. Neither hycom nor RTG carry future sea surface temperature anomalies.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #633 on: November 10, 2016, 01:42:03 PM »
I'm amazed by the DMI Daily Arctic mean temperatures north of 80N graphs. I've been browsing through them and the current heat is unprecedented by a huge margin. If this keeps up and just eyeballing I would say that the average temperature for the first 100 days of the year are at least 6 degrees above baseline and if it keeps up, the last 100 days will be even worse. I could not find the data to make the graphs myself, but it would be a nice exercise to see how unprecedented this current year is.

I'm wondering if this kind of set-up will materialize next year as well. If so, it looks like the start of a new winter baseline.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #634 on: November 10, 2016, 02:25:50 PM »
Hi Entropy!

I think there are a number of us on here are wondering if this will be the one ( that folk point back too as being "The one that started it")?

The poor state of ice , last spring, was a result of a very warm Arctic winter. This allowed a pretty dismal June/July/Aug to still take enough ice to leave us with issues ( and a very smashed, dispersed pack!) this refreeze?

Should these late refreezes really be messing with both the Polar Jet and the setting up of the winter Polar Vortex then we are tripping toward a point that deep cold, settled conditions cannot exist within the Arctic for any lengthy periods anymore? We end up with winds setting up fracture events and ice , limited in thickness, never seeing any deep cold seeping into it.

Since 2012 this period, to me,  had been the most important period we faced as I thought that we would be seeing the return of the perfect melt storm synoptic in summer 2017. The past few years have eased that fear as I now think that the Arctic is driving its own weather over the summer months with Low Pressure now ever more common over June/July/Aug so limiting the return of the perfect melt storm.

I think Mother Nature did try and hold things static, post 07', but the continuing onslaught in the basin has now seen Her inertia overcome, hence what we see today.

EDIT: changed a wrong 'can' to the correct 'cannot'
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 06:22:31 PM by Gray-Wolf »
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pccp82

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #635 on: November 10, 2016, 04:10:09 PM »
I have to wonder if they need to change the temp scales on that anomaly chart. Might there be temps in that plume that exceed the upper limit?

dnem

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #636 on: November 10, 2016, 05:28:45 PM »
I'm amazed by the DMI Daily Arctic mean temperatures north of 80N graphs. I've been browsing through them and the current heat is unprecedented by a huge margin. If this keeps up and just eyeballing I would say that the average temperature for the first 100 days of the year are at least 6 degrees above baseline and if it keeps up, the last 100 days will be even worse. I could not find the data to make the graphs myself, but it would be a nice exercise to see how unprecedented this current year is.

When I made this figure I had hoped to be able to integrate the area under (over) the curve and above (below) the climatology line to create a quantitative index to compare years..  But I just don't have the drawing program or the chops to do it.  It should be pretty straightforward, though.

be cause

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #637 on: November 10, 2016, 05:40:25 PM »
just as the heat wave of the next 5 days end .. we have a new autumnal storm heading in to the Arctic . some models have pressure below 960 mb .Whatever the pressure, lots more heat and moisture heading poleward ! .. and of coure wind,waves .. and tides..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #638 on: November 10, 2016, 06:49:46 PM »
It's like we used to have a nice strong 'dome' over the basin by now in the form of heavy ,cold , dry air sat over the thick ice below and a resultant vortex casting off any Low that dared come close. Now we have flaccid, moisture laden , air mass collapsed across it ?

Every time another injection of temperate air arrives it must slow the repairs to the running of the 'normal Arctic' going on below?

We see a Cold Eurasian strip, with some areas of extreme precipitation, a Wimpy PV trying to be something over East Greenland and the U.S. still seeing warmth. Sadly I don't think we have many 'Weather Nuts' willing to go full 'Rapid climate shift ongoing' when entering data into our major weather models so they all strive back to climalogical averages beyond T 80 ( ish) so we cannot even see what is on the horizon with much faith?

For us in the UK it is the nightmare that low ice drove the U.S. Eastern cold plunge in 2012/13  and drove that stormy Jan for us as US cold air met warm Atlantic and fired up the Jet aimed right at us in the UK!!!

I think the Low Solar Sunspots will spare us from a repeat of that winter by H.P. driving any such invigoration of the Polar Jet ,across  the Atlantic, either north or  south by the Atlantic blocking we see during low Solar?

That leaves it that any storms must either go North, over Iceland and into Fram, or South , into France/Portugal or Spain?, and bring those regions the same flood problems we are unwilling ( here in the UK) to have to face again?

A track North destroys the last of the bulk of the 'good ice' left in the basin, sat over Fram or on the frozen edges of Barentsz and drives swells into the weak Atlantic side ice?

The maintained high temps must also manifest with some regions ( like the U.S. has been warm?)  whilst continental areas build their winter cold Highs and entice the PV to linger there a while?

It will be worth watching I feel?
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 06:55:38 PM by Gray-Wolf »
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Tealight

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #639 on: November 10, 2016, 10:55:21 PM »
When I made this figure I had hoped to be able to integrate the area under (over) the curve and above (below) the climatology line to create a quantitative index to compare years..  But I just don't have the drawing program or the chops to do it.  It should be pretty straightforward, though.

It's quite easy with programming skills. All you have to do is get the y positions of the red and green pixels and calulate the difference. Maybe I can replicate Andrew Slaters "Degree Days Freezing" from DMI charts. The "degreeday" part might be a bit difficult because the diagram is 520 pixel wide. This makes each day 1.42 pixels wide.

However this doesn't effect the average temperature anomaly. Below are the results of the past 5 years:

Average Temperature anomaly(in K):
Year                  2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
whole year           5.96   6.83   5.54   6.91   6.65   8.44
since refreezing   0.48   2.45   1.05   2.08   2.15   5.08


« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 12:43:10 AM by Tealight »

charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #640 on: November 11, 2016, 01:32:31 PM »
It would be great to get the degree day freezing / thawing back on line in some form.

I have asked via Andrew Slater's site if his great work will be continued / restarted and they are considering it - and hopefully will respond back about any plans....

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #641 on: November 11, 2016, 04:39:14 PM »
he table below of open water as percentage of entire Arctic Ocean shows that over the last 19 days, open water in 2016 has averaged 20.2% of the maximum possible despite the late date (23 Oct to 10 Nov). This is almost double the average area (11.3%) for the same date range in 2015.

Thus a considerable portion of the Arctic Ocean — and thus a considerable portion of the effects thereof — is ‘seasonally open’ now (ie for 7 months).  As analyzed in an earlier graph, the peak open water period is currently shifted to a later date relative to the peak solar input season. While the overlap will 'improve' in coming years as the Arctic opens up earlier, open water late in season also seriously perturbs the Arctic energy budget and future ice thickness and cover.

These percentages were determined by read-out of zero ice concentration pixels (darkest blue) on the highest resolution UHH AMSR2 data set (which resolves coastal features better, important as freezing ice closes in). As the whole ocean comprises 1,860,509 pixels in this set-up and since refreezing takes place almost exclusively on the periphery of the central ice pack where Serreze 2016 accurately determined area per pixel, percentages can be translated quite accurately into sq km of open water despite the fact that the UHH projection is not quite equal area.

The Arctic Ocean, as defined here in the figure below, may differ from other sources which sometimes include Baffin Bay, the Bering Sea south of the Strait, the Barents Sea and even Hudson Bay! Those choices make sense in terms of overall high latitude heat budget but are not suitable for assessing effects of weather or Atlantic and Pacific ocean water intrusions on the main Arctic Ocean ice cover which are governed by currents, flux gates, shelf bathymetry and, increasingly, vertical mixing processes.

Unlike with the Chukchi region, refreezing is not closing in on the Barents (2nd animation, also hybridized by an extension of Hycom predicted developments).

Date        2016   2015   ratio
10 Nov 16   11.4    7.8   1.46
09 Nov 16   12.5    8.2   1.52
08 Nov 16   13.6    7.9   1.72
07 Nov 16   15.0    8.2   1.83
06 Nov 16   16.3    8.8   1.85
05 Nov 16   17.6    9.7   1.81
04 Nov 16   18.8   10.5   1.79
03 Nov 16   20.1   11.1   1.81
02 Nov 16   21.6   11.1   1.95
01 Nov 16   23.1   11.0   2.10
31 Oct 16   23.8   11.0   2.16
30 Oct 16   23.3   11.4   2.04
29 Oct 16   22.6   11.9   1.90
28 Oct 16   23.0   12.5   1.84
27 Oct 16   23.3   13.2   1.77
26 Oct 16   23.7   14.0   1.69
25 Oct 16   24.1   14.9   1.62
24 Oct 16   24.8   15.6   1.59
23 Oct 16   25.8   16.7   1.54
average     20.2   11.3   1.79
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 04:52:30 PM by A-Team »

Sleepy

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #642 on: November 11, 2016, 05:06:07 PM »
It would be great to get the degree day freezing / thawing back on line in some form.

I have asked via Andrew Slater's site if his great work will be continued / restarted and they are considering it - and hopefully will respond back about any plans....
Thanks, followed that site for a long time and would love to see it up and running again.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #643 on: November 11, 2016, 07:34:07 PM »
NSIDC SIE numbers have been steady moving up the last several days.

2016,    10,  31,      7.080
2016,    11,  01,      7.172
2016,    11,  02,      7.342
2016,    11,  03,      7.551
2016,    11,  04,      7.634
2016,    11,  05,      7.858
2016,    11,  06,      8.042
2016,    11,  07,      8.184
2016,    11,  08,      8.238
2016,    11,  09,      8.386
2016,    11,  10,      8.403

Still, you have to expect, or ask, that when everything facing the Bering Strait is frozen over, however thinly, will there be another pause on the Atlantic fed side?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #644 on: November 11, 2016, 08:17:10 PM »
i think that not much further explanation as to what we can expect from the next 7 days is necessary :-(

on both sides where still is open open water we gonna see high winds, warm air and waters inflow from the south and moist air in addition which will probably make up for another significant stall in refreeze, this of course only if the forecast comes to be true.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 08:30:07 PM by magnamentis »

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #645 on: November 12, 2016, 01:44:52 PM »
It is feasible to calculate shrinking perimeters of open water (in addition to areas) during seasonal refreezing. That’s done below for 23 Oct to 11 Nov 2016 by counting boundary pixels of the open water, converting those square pixels (which are areas) to length either by height (table)  or diagonal to bracket the contribution to perimeter.

It’s evident from animations that refreezing takes place almost solely along this perimeter which is the boundary of the much-studied MIZ (mixed ice zone, see AGU2016 abstracts). There may very well be more rapid freezing in narrow embayments or regions of high curvature (easily calculable) of this perimeter where the environment is calmer and colder. It seems unlikely that refreezing could be predicted from trends in scalar field integrals (eg area, extent) from which perimeter data has been dropped.

https://robertscribbler.com massive die-off of tufted puffin

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/11/tufted-puffins-die-off-bering-sea-alaska-starvation-warm-water-climate-change/

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #646 on: November 12, 2016, 01:46:53 PM »
All you have to do is get the y positions of the red and green pixels and calulate the difference.
However this doesn't effect the average temperature anomaly. Below are the results of the past 5 years:

Average Temperature anomaly(in K):
Year                  2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
whole year           5.96   6.83   5.54   6.91   6.65   8.44
since refreezing   0.48   2.45   1.05   2.08   2.15   5.08

Thanks Tealight.  That's exactly what I was saying.  If you don't mind, how do you extract the y positions of the red and green pixels?

So the data say that the temperature anomaly for this refreeze season inside 80N is about twice as large as any other year in the past five (and 10X larger than the coolest year in the last five).

Tealight

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #647 on: November 12, 2016, 02:24:45 PM »
All you have to do is get the y positions of the red and green pixels and calulate the difference.
However this doesn't effect the average temperature anomaly. Below are the results of the past 5 years:

Average Temperature anomaly(in K):
Year                  2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
whole year           5.96   6.83   5.54   6.91   6.65   8.44
since refreezing   0.48   2.45   1.05   2.08   2.15   5.08

Thanks Tealight.  That's exactly what I was saying.  If you don't mind, how do you extract the y positions of the red and green pixels?

So the data say that the temperature anomaly for this refreeze season inside 80N is about twice as large as any other year in the past five (and 10X larger than the coolest year in the last five).

I programed this in Python using the image libary Pillow(PIL). With it I can read out a pixel values e.g. red=3 and green=4.  Then a simple "for loop" finds all red and green pixels with a specific x value and saves them in a list. Sometimes the red line has 2 or more pixels for the same x value (vertical line). In that case i took the average of all pixels. The rest is simple math like "green y value" minus "red y value" and divide the pixel difference by 7.4 to get Kelvin.

You could say the anomaly is 10 times larger than the coolest year, but you would exploit the law of small numbers. Like 1.0 is 100 times larger than 0.01.

I attched the raw data (in Kelvin) as a comma seperated file. You can just open it in Excel and specify "comma" as the seperator. Maybe you can create interesting graphs or make other investigations.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 08:48:48 PM by Tealight »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #648 on: November 12, 2016, 08:47:13 PM »
Keeping an eye on the predictions of the Hycom, a more textbook-like drift pattern may be emerging soon, how persistent we will see.
The model has been predicting refreezing very well btw.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #649 on: November 12, 2016, 08:56:45 PM »
All you have to do is get the y positions of the red and green pixels and calulate the difference.
However this doesn't effect the average temperature anomaly. Below are the results of the past 5 years:

Average Temperature anomaly(in K):
Year                  2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
whole year           5.96   6.83   5.54   6.91   6.65   8.44
since refreezing   0.48   2.45   1.05   2.08   2.15   5.08

Thanks Tealight.  That's exactly what I was saying.  If you don't mind, how do you extract the y positions of the red and green pixels?

So the data say that the temperature anomaly for this refreeze season inside 80N is about twice as large as any other year in the past five (and 10X larger than the coolest year in the last five).

I programed this in Python using the image libary Pillow(PIL). With it I can read out a pixel values e.g. red=3 and green=4.  Then a simple "for loop" finds all red and green pixels with a specific x value and saves them in a list. Sometimes the red line has 2 or more pixels for the same x value (vertical line). In that case i took the average of all pixels. The rest is simple math like "green y value" minus "red y value" and divide the pixel difference by 7.4 to get Kelvin.

You could say the anomaly is 10 times larger than the coolest year, but you would exploit the law of small numbers. Like 1.0 is 100 times larger than 0.01.

I attched the raw data (in Kelvin) as a comma seperated file. You can just open it in Excel and specify "comma" as the seperator. Maybe you can create interesting graphs or make other investigations.
Unless I'm missing something, 1 is 100 times larger than 0.01, and the law of small numbers is a logical fallacy.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2016, 04:31:33 PM by 6roucho »