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Author Topic: The 2016/2017 freezing season  (Read 1133888 times)

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #700 on: November 15, 2016, 12:48:59 AM »
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

that's anyways a matter of fact, latest once our dear mother sun becomes a red giant but there are many more events that mean extinction 100% certain before that will happen in a few billion years :-) but seriously, things will change and for same to the bad and for others to the better but global warming, even though a catastrophy for some, will not mean doomsday, if deniars have one valid point then it is that live prospered enormously once when the earth was definitely much warmer than now, basically ice-free. the point is basically the speed in which this happens which will make it hard to adapt for those who cannot simply move and that will shift values. i.e. real estate that is now ocean side will have zero value (disappear) and real estate that is now 4th or 5th row becomes ocean side. not that i think this is very important next to more important topics but then it's an example that is easy to understand.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #701 on: November 15, 2016, 01:02:50 AM »
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

that's anyways a matter of fact, latest once our dear mother sun becomes a red giant but there are many more events that mean extinction 100% certain before that will happen in a few billion years :-) but seriously, things will change and for same to the bad and for others to the better but global warming, even though a catastrophy for some, will not mean doomsday, if deniars have one valid point then it is that live prospered enormously once when the earth was definitely much warmer than now, basically ice-free. the point is basically the speed in which this happens which will make it hard to adapt for those who cannot simply move and that will shift values. i.e. real estate that is now ocean side will have zero value (disappear) and real estate that is now 4th or 5th row becomes ocean side. not that i think this is very important next to more important topics but then it's an example that is easy to understand.
yep, point taken re: red giant, but even then, if we survive this somehow, starlifting opens possibility to extending the sun's life.

in either case, even if all the little humans die, we can take solace in the writing of Isaac Asimov... (or be horrified since we'll be reliving it over and over again -- which is why no point being sad?)

a slight segue but hopefully not too OT

www.physics.princeton.edu/ph115/LQ.pdf

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #702 on: November 15, 2016, 01:43:49 AM »
So to bring it back to ice...

What do people think the maximum is going to be? Is it going to be severely depressed by this ongoing weather?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #703 on: November 15, 2016, 01:50:15 AM »
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

that's anyways a matter of fact, latest once our dear mother sun becomes a red giant but there are many more events that mean extinction 100% certain before that will happen in a few billion years :-) but seriously, things will change and for same to the bad and for others to the better but global warming, even though a catastrophy for some, will not mean doomsday, if deniars have one valid point then it is that live prospered enormously once when the earth was definitely much warmer than now, basically ice-free. the point is basically the speed in which this happens which will make it hard to adapt for those who cannot simply move and that will shift values. i.e. real estate that is now ocean side will have zero value (disappear) and real estate that is now 4th or 5th row becomes ocean side. not that i think this is very important next to more important topics but then it's an example that is easy to understand.

I disagree entirely. You are making the assumption that we humans can live and even prosper regardless of what happens to the rest of the biosphere on this planet. This is wrong in so many ways. The biggest problem is that the rate of change we are seeing right now is greater than even during PETM. What this means is that 90%+ of the species will be gone in a very short time. We could adapt fast but we can't survive without food and we can't hope to be able to grow enough food when our habitat enters the sudden death mode. With the climate change we will have way more wildfires and draughts until there's very little left to burn. Death of phytoplankton is another concern (which can't be remedied by dumping iron dust into the ocean, and that's our best solution up to date!). Oceans are undergoing major changes from acidification to poor oxygenation at depth. Will we stop polluting them with toxic waste? Microbeads anyone? Air quality will plummet to the point when humans will have to wear oxygen masks outdoors at all times.

And I'm completely excluding the human factor. I'm sure we will all smile, shake hands, and work very hard together, helping each other when entire nations will start dying and mass migrations take place. We will, of course, lay down all weapons and forget the word WAR, and just share the remaining resources equally, right?!  8)

And that's just for starters. But it's nice to ponder about how we gonna survive, while sitting at Starbucks and typing on your macbook. No personal offence, Magnamentis, this is about us all, our illusions and our ignorance. Even scientists, focusing on one narrow field (like arctic) can't see the whole picture. 

@BBr,
 Extra snow != ice age! We have heard that tune many times before and still kept on going into record hot, year after year. It doesn't matter how much snow falls in Siberia this winter. It will preserve the warm ground, so the spring melt will be way faster. This is just another accelerator of global warming. There could be mechanisms for abrupt ice age transition but I doubt those are related to winter snow cover in any way.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #704 on: November 15, 2016, 02:06:30 AM »
Can we please stay on topic? I come here to understand how the freeze season is progressing. There are many threads to carry on this conversation in the Consequences portion of this wonderful site.

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #705 on: November 15, 2016, 02:24:17 AM »
So to bring it back to ice...

What do people think the maximum is going to be? Is it going to be severely depressed by this ongoing weather?

I think the maximum extent could be anything from record minimum maximum to middle of the road maximum, more likely on the low side. Volume and ice condition worry me terribly. I think this warmth has more effect on volume than on extent.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #706 on: November 15, 2016, 02:32:45 AM »
As I noted elsewhere, its interesting to see that BPIOMAS Sea Ice Volume is about to fall out the bottom of the curve set too...

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #707 on: November 15, 2016, 02:57:49 AM »
The animation below tracks open water over bathymetry for the whole Arctic Ocean from 10 Sept minimum extent / maximum open water to 11 Nov 16.

Variations on this could cut the mask down to the -50 m contour of the continental shelf where mixing of waters and solar absorption (during that season) will be worst.

The open water cut-out could be co-displayed with wind, wave action, significant wave height, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover, total cloud water, ocean currents, temperature, temperature anomaly, salinity, sea level height and so forth.

It is just a matter of retrieve, re-project, rescale, rotate, then activating the animation generating script. By clicking checkboxes, any boolean, arithmetic, or statistical operation can be performed between any combination of channels and masks. WorldView and NOAA bathymetry are already onto this but not yet all the way there.

It seems more accurate results could be obtained by using raw grid data in netCDF files for each of these separate condition monitoring projects, but this turns out to be a tower of Babel in terms of grids, resolutions, instrument issues, error, interpolative choices, data formats and open source availability whereas each project's graphical output puts its best foot forward, skipping black box internals to provide a cross-project compatible bottom line component. While stereographic projection, conformal but not equal area pixels, appears to introduce unnecessary error, it is inconsequential relative to instrument, algorithmic, pixel footprint size and most importantly, to operational goals.

It is sometimes argued that distinguishing climate change from natural variation requires utmost care in processing data so additional noise is not introduced. However the cryosphere is changing too rapidly for a statistical baseline to be established around which natural variation varies.

Trends cannot be detrended without self-defeating strong assumptions. The burden of proof has shifted today: attributing unprecedented conditions to ‘weather’ or ‘natural variation’ is an extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence. The end stages of unravelling cannot plausibly follow incremental trends. And we are not too far away unravelling.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 03:37:29 AM by A-Team »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #708 on: November 15, 2016, 03:02:27 AM »
I highly suspect that clouds over snow is still much colder than clear skies over bare earth
NOPE.  It's all about the moisture.  In a dry climate, you can see a 50C swing between daytime and night time temperatures when you don't have clouds.  Heat flow through through bare ground has absolutely no practical ability to affect that.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #709 on: November 15, 2016, 03:41:56 AM »
NSIDC SIE was up to 8.615M on Nov.12th, but back down to 8.613M on the 13th. There seems to be a trend of a couple days growth and then another short stall. I suspect the stall will soon become more extended, as there is little room left for growth in the Chukchi area, and the Atlantic fed waters are not  allowing much extent growth. The shore that started freezing in the Kara is struggling just to maintain.And some of the front of the main pack has actually retreated slightly from where it was on Nov. 1st. So, it's probably going to go from slow to slower, SIE-wise.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #710 on: November 15, 2016, 04:28:56 AM »
I highly suspect that clouds over snow is still much colder than clear skies over bare earth
NOPE.  It's all about the moisture.  In a dry climate, you can see a 50C swing between daytime and night time temperatures when you don't have clouds.  Heat flow through through bare ground has absolutely no practical ability to affect that.
Got it. I just want to note I happily accept all raging/corrections against my inaccuracies as I enjoy being proven wrong, it is the only way to learn.  :)

Tigertown: I think you are correct. DMI shows that we should see a dramatic retraction in the ATL side of the pack with large areas N of 80 becoming open once again thanks to the repeat LPs driving warm air/water into the Arctic.

While ice extent may continue growing in Hudson Bay/Sea of Okhotsk, it seems like the stall will continue in the actual Arctic, with minimal growth occurring in Kara.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #711 on: November 15, 2016, 05:05:33 AM »


 :'( :'(
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They didn't understand
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Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #712 on: November 15, 2016, 05:20:51 AM »
@ Tealight . Awesome graph! I'm so glad to see Andrew Slater's work continued. It seems that you have also improved it. I find it very insightful  how the melting season is captured in your way of presenting this data.

The thought that occurs to me when I see it is that the less ice extent, the less effective DFF's are because there is less ice surface area thickening.
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TerryM

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #713 on: November 15, 2016, 10:01:51 AM »
Such strangeness!


A-Team
Whenever a surge or even a low pressure system causes the sea level to rise above the sill that limits Pacific water flow into the Arctic, does the flow measurably increase? Would a long lasting low over Bering Strait add a notable amount of Pacific water to the Arctic? enough to interfere with winter freeze-up?


bbr
Last read Asimov's piece in the 1950's, I'd always remembered the title as "Entropy". So much for long term memory. Didn't appreciate the magic ending then or now, but still loved the work.


The last few weeks have been every bit as scary as September 2012, again I'm unsure whether to wander the streets screaming "The end is Nigh", or to sit home mute, and appear sane.


Will the open water release it's heat to space, or will it contribute to cloud cover that blankets the region and stalls freeze-up until spring.


If open water is the cause of this fall anomaly, why didn't it occur after 2007 or 2012?
Should we expect a rebound year, or an unusual second year of record loss?


The more I know, the more I question.
Terry




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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #714 on: November 15, 2016, 11:38:20 AM »
From what I hear, our stratosphere is colder now than in the past because the planet overall is retaining heat. I don't think the Arctic is losing heat very fast at all, as it seems distribute so well in water and is stubborn about leaving it, especially through moist air as a medium, or possibly more accurately a barrier in this case. Someone that knows more can correct me if wrong, but that's what I have pieced together.

Also, on the side of the Arctic fed by the Gulf Stream, I think the heat is constantly being replenished.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 11:43:45 AM by Tigertown »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #715 on: November 15, 2016, 12:17:13 PM »
There have been a number of years , since the turn of the century, that have shown early winter snow cover/depth anomalies. The proof of the pudding is the spring trend in snow cover.

As ice removal impacts temps 1,500km away snow removal must show a similar thermal forcing. As such the Snow cover crash set up 2007 for the start of this 'open water' era.

Parts of Siberia saw 5 months of snow over October. This does indeed form a cosy blanket preserving this years permafrost melt and limiting surface re-freeze .The problem comes in spring when that snow cover melts and causes both flooding but also a rapid start to the permafrost melt season ( melt water percolates into the lower, unfrozen ground , attacking the ice below).

My advice? Wait for spring and see whether this extra snow is gone by late April!

Siberia was always cold over the Arctic winter. Transport moisture there ( not normal) and what do you get? We get floods here in the UK when anomalous moisture laden air masses flow over us, Siberia gets deep snow. All are due to a warming atmosphere carrying more moisture and a whacked out Polar Jet delivering that cargo to odd places unused to such extremes.
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TerryM

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #716 on: November 15, 2016, 04:36:16 PM »
Nullschool, 10:30 AM EST, 15/11/2016  at the North Pole +0.1 C

Terry

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #717 on: November 15, 2016, 04:42:53 PM »
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

that's anyways a matter of fact, latest once our dear mother sun becomes a red giant but there are many more events that mean extinction 100% certain before that will happen in a few billion years :-) but seriously, things will change and for same to the bad and for others to the better but global warming, even though a catastrophy for some, will not mean doomsday, if deniars have one valid point then it is that live prospered enormously once when the earth was definitely much warmer than now, basically ice-free. the point is basically the speed in which this happens which will make it hard to adapt for those who cannot simply move and that will shift values. i.e. real estate that is now ocean side will have zero value (disappear) and real estate that is now 4th or 5th row becomes ocean side. not that i think this is very important next to more important topics but then it's an example that is easy to understand.
yep, point taken re: red giant, but even then, if we survive this somehow, starlifting opens possibility to extending the sun's life.

in either case, even if all the little humans die, we can take solace in the writing of Isaac Asimov... (or be horrified since we'll be reliving it over and over again -- which is why no point being sad?)

a slight segue but hopefully not too OT

www.physics.princeton.edu/ph115/LQ.pdf

thanks for the link, i'm very interested in all that stuff because i believe to think beyond what's present knowledge is good for a more holistic approach and way of thinking and will make it easier to define what's ethical. the more unknowns the more excuses the egomaniacs have to sail under the banner of "relativity"

cheers

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #718 on: November 15, 2016, 05:28:14 PM »
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible, it is irrelevant if enough brash ice forms to produce 100% of the regional cover.  The current DMI temperature at 80'N and above is 17C above the 30 year average and only 8C below freezing.  This is an average temperature with higher and lower values throughout the CAB.

The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS and displayed on our PIOMAS thread by Sir Wipneus (the stalwart).  The current re-freeze temp anomalies have been much higher than even the record-setting 2016 winter anomalies that were about 6C above the 30 year average.

The warmer air temperatures significantly slowed sea ice volume accumulation during this time.  The accumulation of sea ice volume during the refreeze has also slowed so that we are now at a lower sea ice volume level for this day of the year than any day in the previous record, beating the 2012 minimum value.

If these temperature anomalies continue or even strengthen over the winter, we could have a PIOMAS April maximum at 18,000 cubic kilometers, or 4,000 km^3 below the previous April high.  However, if temperatures return to normal or even near normal levels, the rate of accumulation will increase and we will be fairly close to the previous high.  I expect that we will have a new winter max/min of -2,000 km^3 and this is the best case scenario.  worst case is that we end up with a new climate regime in the arctic and experience complete melt out by Sept. of 2017.  I give this between 5-10% probability.



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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #719 on: November 15, 2016, 06:07:31 PM »
 And not to mention what a winter storm or two might do to set that back.

 Edit: Like last winter.   

 Also, with a low volume, melt momentum can set in early next year and build up fast.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 06:38:43 PM by Tigertown »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #720 on: November 15, 2016, 06:09:19 PM »
worst case is that we end up with a new climate regime in the arctic and experience complete melt out by Sept. of 2017.  I give this between 5-10% probability.

In other words, as unlikely as Brexit or President Donald Trump. Whew!! I was worried there for a minute  :o

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #721 on: November 15, 2016, 06:32:18 PM »
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible, it is irrelevant if enough brash ice forms to produce 100% of the regional cover.  The current DMI temperature at 80'N and above is 17C above the 30 year average and only 8C below freezing.  This is an average temperature with higher and lower values throughout the CAB.

The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS and displayed on our PIOMAS thread by Sir Wipneus (the stalwart).  The current re-freeze temp anomalies have been much higher than even the record-setting 2016 winter anomalies that were about 6C above the 30 year average.

The warmer air temperatures significantly slowed sea ice volume accumulation during this time.  The accumulation of sea ice volume during the refreeze has also slowed so that we are now at a lower sea ice volume level for this day of the year than any day in the previous record, beating the 2012 minimum value.

If these temperature anomalies continue or even strengthen over the winter, we could have a PIOMAS April maximum at 18,000 cubic kilometers, or 4,000 km^3 below the previous April high.  However, if temperatures return to normal or even near normal levels, the rate of accumulation will increase and we will be fairly close to the previous high.  I expect that we will have a new winter max/min of -2,000 km^3 and this is the best case scenario.  worst case is that we end up with a new climate regime in the arctic and experience complete melt out by Sept. of 2017.  I give this between 5-10% probability.



a very good assessment of the situation except one tiny thing worth to mention IMO, even piomas data, meaning the models and/or Algorithms need a though rework as well or perhaps we need more accurate measurement tools (applied satellite based technology) the details are beyond me but i think it's clear what's meant. thanks again for pointing out what i was preaching the entire season, that extent at 16% coverage counts as 100% which makes it a close to useless
value ( i know it's not useless but again i think it's clear what's meant 16=100 cannot be good )

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #722 on: November 15, 2016, 07:14:11 PM »
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible [...]
The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS

The two are not comparable: one is data, one is a model.  You need both.  The only data we have on volume is Cryosat, which is still quite experimental and nowhere near as high resolution or as detailed as SIE/SIA measurements.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #723 on: November 15, 2016, 08:47:49 PM »
Dr. Stroeve's analysis recently published regarding the amount of ice surface area lost per metric tonne of CO2 emissions shows that the utilization of this metric as a hindcast and predictive tool is absolutely and completely incongruous to good science.  The nature of the numerical value of SIE during the 2016 Sept minimum does not, in any way, convey the same state of the sea ice through numeric value attributed to 1996.  The two ice packs are as different as would occur on 2 different planets (or epochs)

What do you suppose was the percentage of SIE in 2016 that could be attributed to brash ice? 10%? 20%?  What percent of the sea ice extent in 1996 was brash?

and then consider what extent of VOLUME in 2016 was contributed to by the existence of brash ice and what contribution (as a percent of total ice volume) did brash ice provide to the ice pack in 1996?

Using SIE for anything but SIE numerical statements without regard to these dramatic, cataclysmic and outside-of-the-95th-percentile model responses we are seeing is beyond foolish it is foolhardy and suicidal.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #724 on: November 15, 2016, 08:54:39 PM »
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible [...]
The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS

The two are not comparable: one is data, one is a model.  You need both.  The only data we have on volume is Cryosat, which is still quite experimental and nowhere near as high resolution or as detailed as SIE/SIA measurements.

I am absolutly sure Jai always uses both - but prefers from November clearly volume.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #725 on: November 15, 2016, 09:34:35 PM »
It is sometimes argued that distinguishing climate change from natural variation requires utmost care in processing data so additional noise is not introduced. However the cryosphere is changing too rapidly for a statistical baseline to be established around which natural variation varies.

Is it not true that if we accept the fact that natural variation is endemic in the figures, then it would, over time, return to the median baseline.

Therefore if the baseline is a line which tilts from high ice on the left to low ice on the right, then we are in a situation where natural variation is only producing noise and that the "statistical trend" is clear.  Decline.

Those who doubt it have an "unreasonable doubt" and you're never going to overturn that with statistics.  Only with direct impact.

Is it not true that every time there is a major climatic incident in the US, the number of people who believe in Anthropogenic Climate Change, in the US, increases...

As my brother in law used to say "It's like educating Pork"...
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #726 on: November 15, 2016, 09:37:03 PM »


And Nullschool giving a reading of 0.1 c at the pole at 3:30pm gmt

We know that the pole saw high temps last December 24th so we have about a month to get those temps down to average or we have lost a whole winters 'Deep cold' this freeze season as we enter the months of temp spikes before spring....... what will that mean for the ice?

Temps higher than Hudson for the winter and ice of similar thickness to Hudson's Will the basin do a 'Hudson' next summer , no matter what the weather?
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NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #727 on: November 15, 2016, 09:37:52 PM »
So to bring it back to ice...

What do people think the maximum is going to be? Is it going to be severely depressed by this ongoing weather?

OK I'll bite.

Slightly above the lowest we've seen but still around 1-2SD below the trend.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #728 on: November 15, 2016, 09:41:29 PM »
So to bring it back to ice...

What do people think the maximum is going to be? Is it going to be severely depressed by this ongoing weather?

OK I'll bite.

Slightly above the lowest we've seen but still around 1-2SD below the trend.
Too soon to say definitively, but we can agree the refreeze is starting very badly.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #729 on: November 15, 2016, 10:01:44 PM »
Either way, it won't last long. It can't be the same durable ice that has held on for so long in the past melt seasons. No way.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #730 on: November 15, 2016, 11:14:53 PM »
Either way, it won't last long. It can't be the same durable ice that has held on for so long in the past melt seasons. No way.

Exacta Mon Day!

...........and that is before Jan /Feb gives us a vague chance of a Beaufort high ( as the PV does one from Siberia) to rip the ice apart into easily melt-able portions.......
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #731 on: November 15, 2016, 11:37:09 PM »


And Nullschool giving a reading of 0.1 c at the pole at 3:30pm gmt

We know that the pole saw high temps last December 24th so we have about a month to get those temps down to average or we have lost a whole winters 'Deep cold' this freeze season as we enter the months of temp spikes before spring....... what will that mean for the ice?

Temps higher than Hudson for the winter and ice of similar thickness to Hudson's Will the basin do a 'Hudson' next summer , no matter what the weather?

I saw that and thought oh shitte and ran over here to see...

Is that going to head up to freezing ocean wide or what???

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #732 on: November 15, 2016, 11:44:56 PM »
not sure if I posted this, I think it is important to understand why

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #733 on: November 15, 2016, 11:56:38 PM »
not sure if I posted this, I think it is important to understand why
Looking at Earthlink, there's a daisy chain of lows starting about 45N swinging across to the Norwegian Sea then feeding into the low currently north of Greenland.  The pattern persists more or less for the next week looking at CCI.

It appears to be a somewhat persistent heat pump pulling heat and moisture from the mid latitudes to stream 5000KM north to dump out directly over the pack.  My "cyclone cannon" has turned into a firehose.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #734 on: November 15, 2016, 11:57:39 PM »
Uhhh the red on that map is at ~370K, which is ~100C, which is water boiling temperatures. I don't think the world is melting just yet?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #735 on: November 16, 2016, 12:05:47 AM »
NSIDC SIE was up to 8.615M on Nov.12th, but back down to 8.613M on the 13th. There seems to be a trend of a couple days growth and then another short stall. I suspect the stall will soon become more extended, as there is little room left for growth in the Chukchi area, and the Atlantic fed waters are not  allowing much extent growth. The shore that started freezing in the Kara is struggling just to maintain.And some of the front of the main pack has actually retreated slightly from where it was on Nov. 1st. So, it's probably going to go from slow to slower, SIE-wise.

JAXA being back up now and all, they were nice enough to make this GIF(actually self service) , showing where the ice has grown(actually a thickness map, but serves the purpose) since November 1st. Watch the ice front on the European side closely.


« Last Edit: November 16, 2016, 12:12:40 AM by Tigertown »
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #736 on: November 16, 2016, 12:39:59 AM »
Uhhh the red on that map is at ~370K, which is ~100C, which is water boiling temperatures. I don't think the world is melting just yet?

potential temperature, not absolute

https://www.shodor.org/os411/courses/_master/tools/calculators/pottemp/pt1calc.html
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #737 on: November 16, 2016, 01:22:29 AM »
Folks, that potential temperature map shows the polar vortex being injected with tropical heat. That could cause a major winter warming in the stratosphere. Stay tuned. Wow.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #738 on: November 16, 2016, 03:23:43 AM »
Folks, that potential temperature map shows the polar vortex being injected with tropical heat. That could cause a major winter warming in the stratosphere. Stay tuned. Wow.
Germane to your comment.  Some models are predicting an SSW out about a week, and continued failure of the polar vortex to organize through January.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #739 on: November 16, 2016, 11:30:06 AM »
Wow, JAXA is showing Arctic ice extent at a record low for this time of year, with growth flattening out for a few days.  And the Antarctic is also at a record low for this day, by a huge margin, and plummeting.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #740 on: November 16, 2016, 12:11:02 PM »
...and meanwhile out there in the darkness the CAA Garlic Press is probably still doing its thing. 

I stepped through WorldView until the edge of darkness overtook the region, and there was evidence of southbound ice export through the CAA until late October.

So not only are we seeing weak ice formation conditions but ice export has been extraordinary as well - particularly given that the CAA-wide garlic press process is a new feature only observed to this degree in 2016. 

None of this bodes well for 2017 for the Arctic, or for the biosphere generally.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #741 on: November 16, 2016, 02:46:53 PM »
Too early to say what max will be but i reckon
around 13.5m is optimistic ....so ill guess that
Coz im a glass half full guy

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #742 on: November 16, 2016, 03:05:40 PM »
This stall is interesting.

See the attached file (picasa screwed by google, imgur pw rules arcane keep forgetting).

Note the day 310ish onwards.

I'm expecting that the end of the year will follow a decadal pattern that you see.  Slower growth back becoming worse and worse as each decade passes and the ice becomes less and less.

This is what I've based my predictions on all year.  The fast start, the stall in the high loss months, the August melt (not I must admit predicted correctly as to how it would lose the ice, just that it would), followed by a later re-freeze.

If that pattern is, in truth, repeating, we're going to see a fairly monumental low in ice extent all the way to the end of the year.

My reason for predicting that 2017 will not be an outright low at maximum is that this is not the pattern I was seeing.  So if it is repeating, then the spring will look better but be worse.  2007 like.

It's going to be interesting to watch anyway.  However it goes.
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #743 on: November 16, 2016, 03:39:23 PM »
Quote
Terry asks: can low pressure systems in the Bering sea cause barotrophic flows of Pacific waters over the 50 m sill barrier into the Chukchi enough to affect winter freeze-up?
Bering Strait inflow can be quite significant at almost a cubic km per second (0.8 sverdrups, about 2/3 all the world’s rivers, according to three Bering Strait moorings over 20 years) but variability of volume and location of currents is quite high, even over the course of a single day. There is no simple scheme at present that explains or predicts inflows according to 2015-16 reviews of R Woodgate, the principal oceanographer for the Straits. One component, the warm Alaskan Coastal Current, follows the coast well into the Beaufort.

Moorings are retrieved once a year, so our best daily option for detecting another surge in heat transport this winter is probably Hycom sea surface salinity and temperature animations. Right now, strong winds blowing south out the Straits will reduce inflows, which in any event are only one contributing factor to freeze-up despite the huge difference in heat content and conductivity of water relative to atmosphere.

Note a substantial fraction of the Arctic Ocean lies within the 50 m bathymetry contour — nearly all the Chukchi and ESS but not so much the Beaufort. Thus a cubic km per second for a day fills 50 m x 20 sq km x 86.400 ksec, or a surface patch 1730 sq km in area if extending to the sea floor, so about a year’s worth at actual mean inflow to amount to the Chukchi’s 528,000 sq km (as defined in Serreze 2016). Depending on mixing and buoyancy, the heat could be localized in near-surface water affecting the ice front with increased salinity slightly lowering freezing temperatures.
Quote
NeilT asks: doesn’t natural variation about a baseline continue even in times of rapid change?
Yes and no. The weather will continue to be chaotic, indeed more so than ever (because of increased energy and water vapor in the system aka sampling from a larger phase space). However variation on a 1950-1980 baseline or a 1978-2008 satellite record has ever-decreasing relevance. There would be a nice new baseline in the works eg 2016-2048 if only climate change would slow down. However 2017, 2018, 2019 … may be so different from 2016 etc (after discounting natural variability applicable to that year) such that each will require its own baseline yet items such as mean and std deviation are observationally unobtainable over such short time frames.

So a decomposition into baseline plus weather is no longer a viable option. The underlying reason is Arctic feedbacks are overwhelmingly of the runaway kind as the system approaches the seasonally ice-free summer/fall and styrofoam-covered winter ice of the Arctic heat budget end-game.

It's unfortunate that so many stopped following this unprecedented fall refreezing season after some silly map integral record was set; one number on one day cannot capture much of anything other than a buried headline. Late February will bring a superficially similar ice cover to earlier years, covering up significant consequences of this fall. Here R Scribbler is on to something better with the ‘end of winter as we know it’.

Right now, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing a very strong cyclonic event bring warm wet air up from mid-latitude. Nasa just put up a very nice animation of a similar event in late Dec 2015 which seems to have fallen below the forum radar screens back then,

The current 15 Nov 2016 event is shown unfolding below. Watch the color overlays of wind for colors from the south that have penetrated to the north. As noted in the Nasa voice-over, warm moist air from mid-latitude is deleterious to ice formation and net radiation from open water to space. Three ‘moisture’ channels are included in the slide show though quantitative effects are murky. The Arctic Ocean was described as arid in years gone by.

Since the main ice pack is fairly solid by now, that which doesn't fracture and rotate about Kap Morris Jesup will pivot with the applied wind as a block, away from the Svalbard-FJI axis on the Atlantic side, including withdrawal from the St Anna Trough; Fram export of the very oldest, thickest ice will be high; and on the Pacific side, marginal brash ice will get pushed into the Chukchi, still warm from the Bering Sea anomaly. Thus the melt season is continuing somewhat in dodgy ice of the Barents and East Siberian Sea in mid-November even as refreezing proceeds.

At this time of year, AMRS2 open water provides an accurate one-click counterpart to algorithmic extent. We'll need to check back in a week to see how the ice surface responded to this cyclonic event. The 50 m bathymetry below scale is set to co-register with UHH AMSR2.

As a technical note, nullschool time series are best made by setting up the view, moving the date by (shift) J or K, capturing whole-window screenshots for co-registered layers that can be cropped. If the url contains ‘current’, it is unstable; if the lat,lon are chosen sensibly, the image won’t need a rotation to register with products such as ice cover; even the scale parameter can be adjusted to improve fit.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/15/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/stereographic=-45.00,89.17,1808

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/Arc_20161115_res3.125.png
« Last Edit: November 16, 2016, 04:46:45 PM by A-Team »

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #744 on: November 16, 2016, 04:48:05 PM »
ATeam,

Apologies I was thinking historical baseline for comparison to current deviation.  There is no way in hell we can baseline for the future as the decline is not linear.  I was thinking more about comparing current deviation from the previous trent (79 - 2000) rather than trying to do the thankless task of projecting a baseline forward.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #745 on: November 16, 2016, 05:19:13 PM »
This stall is interesting.

See the attached file (picasa screwed by google, imgur pw rules arcane keep forgetting).

Note the day 310ish onwards.

I'm expecting that the end of the year will follow a decadal pattern that you see.  Slower growth back becoming worse and worse as each decade passes and the ice becomes less and less.

This is what I've based my predictions on all year.  The fast start, the stall in the high loss months, the August melt (not I must admit predicted correctly as to how it would lose the ice, just that it would), followed by a later re-freeze.

If that pattern is, in truth, repeating, we're going to see a fairly monumental low in ice extent all the way to the end of the year.

My reason for predicting that 2017 will not be an outright low at maximum is that this is not the pattern I was seeing.  So if it is repeating, then the spring will look better but be worse.  2007 like.

It's going to be interesting to watch anyway.  However it goes.

the only crook with all those "old" patterns and models is that they less and less are applicable which is why we see every season the back and forth argument between observers and anticipators and those who rely on models and patterns that were from the "good'ol" times LOL

this is meant as an add-on to your post no as a contradiction or denying, just that this should more and more put into considerations when it comes to predictions. the stall i predicted 10 days ago when some were already only seeing the steep climb is such an example, while who was looking and water temps and weather forecasts could see it coming.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #746 on: November 16, 2016, 05:27:32 PM »

the only crook with all those "old" patterns and models is that they less and less are applicable which is why we see every season the back and forth argument between observers and anticipators and those who rely on models and patterns that were from the "good'ol" times LOL

this is meant as an add-on to your post no as a contradiction or denying, just that this should more and more put into considerations when it comes to predictions. the stall i predicted 10 days ago when some were already only seeing the steep climb is such an example, while who was looking and water temps and weather forecasts could see it coming.

So I have to wonder what N.Hemisphere weather models make of the Arctic at the mo? Do they fall back on past 'averages' when they run beyond current data as , from what we can see, the Arctic is running well above past 'averages ( 30 yr climate means?)

As such how can we put trust in the models as , at some point, the data they are running with is trying to hold the basin to the averages we used to see and not what we are seeing?

We are being told that things are about to 'flip' and Europe turn above average whilst the US sees its first cold plunge across the lower 48....... can we trust this or do we just look out of the window for our forecast?
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #747 on: November 16, 2016, 05:45:11 PM »
Folks, that potential temperature map shows the polar vortex being injected with tropical heat. That could cause a major winter warming in the stratosphere. Stay tuned. Wow.

Stay tuned here:  http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php

note the sampled animated gif was from late October.  It is posted as an example of what is causing these abnormal temps.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #748 on: November 16, 2016, 05:49:58 PM »

My advice? Wait for spring and see whether this extra snow is gone by late April!

well if historic trends are any indication. . .

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=eurasia&ui_month=10



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NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #749 on: November 16, 2016, 06:24:59 PM »
the only crook with all those "old" patterns and models is that they less and less are applicable

No argument there.  Which is why I picked two years, on a decadal cadence, to compare with 2016, one more decade on.

Specifically what it was doing in winter and how that trend was pushing further and further away from the norm.

If you put even 2012 into that mix or 2007 into that mix you see a normal steep growth of ice once it starts growing.

However once a decade there is this "pause" in the re-growth and the conditions which cause it are getting worse and worse as each decade goes by.  Which means that 2016 should have some really spectacular stall and blocking of re-growth over the next two weeks.  If it's getting worse each decade and this really is a repeating pattern.

Interestingly, for me, that means the nearest we'll get to some areas of ice free all year round, inside the boundaries of the Arctic itself (assuming that it will take many more decades to make it the entire basin), are likely to come in 2026 after a year like 2016 but in a situation where the ice volume is closer to the 0 mark.

Well if there really is a decadal pattern and if what I think I'm seeing plays out this year making it a third in a row over two decades.

Only time will tell.

Of course that then leads into speculation as to whether 2017 will also be like 2007.  Which is, after all, only speculation.
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