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Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #750 on: November 16, 2016, 09:39:22 PM »

Stay tuned here:  http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php

note the sampled animated gif was from late October.  It is posted as an example of what is causing these abnormal temps.

I wonder how things would be different from October given the upcoming trend forecasted by GFS:

JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #751 on: November 16, 2016, 09:53:25 PM »

Stay tuned here:  http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php

note the sampled animated gif was from late October.  It is posted as an example of what is causing these abnormal temps.

I wonder how things would be different from October given the upcoming trend forecasted by GFS:

Can you explain what that graph means? What is a "negative" zonal flow? Does that mean that the flow is more meridional than zonal? What does it say about the absolute magnitude of the average wind vector?

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #752 on: November 16, 2016, 10:04:31 PM »
Can you explain what that graph means? What is a "negative" zonal flow? Does that mean that the flow is more meridional than zonal? What does it say about the absolute magnitude of the average wind vector?
It's forecasting a stratospheric zonal wind reversal at 65N latitude.

@Judah Cohen
"Season of superlatives looks to continue. Have to believe GFS can't miss wind reversal by this magnitude but take nothing for granted."

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #753 on: November 16, 2016, 10:52:10 PM »
Right now, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing a very strong cyclonic event bring warm wet air up from mid-latitude.
The current 15 Nov 2016 event is shown unfolding below. Watch the color overlays of wind for colors from the south that have penetrated to the north. As noted in the Nasa voice-over, warm moist air from mid-latitude is deleterious to ice formation and net radiation from open water to space. Three ‘moisture’ channels are included in the slide show though quantitative effects are murky. The Arctic Ocean was described as arid in years gone by.

Rain today and yesterday in the Franz Josef Land. 81 North.

Max temp of +1.6 C is a new November record there.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=20046&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2016&mes=11&day=16&hora=18

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #754 on: November 16, 2016, 11:09:39 PM »
So I have to wonder what N.Hemisphere weather models make of the Arctic at the mo? Do they fall back on past 'averages' when they run beyond current data as , from what we can see, the Arctic is running well above past 'averages ( 30 yr climate means?)
Weather models will do just fine -- as long as you do not look beyond about 4 days, maybe even 9 but that is a stretch.  Anything looking further out has just become toast.  I think the brown stuff hit the fan about last Winter Solstice, but that is a mere guess.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #755 on: November 16, 2016, 11:12:29 PM »
Well it's official now.  CO2 average monthly (Global), for 2016 bottomed out at 400.44 and is on the rise again.  That is the last time anyone on this site, or their children or their grandchildren, will see 3xxppm again.

I'll be interested to see just how much we climb in 2017.  Was it just the Nino?  Is the Ocean finally beginning to reject new CO2 absorption?  Will the levelling of emissions from humans actually stop the annual rises or will they continue anyway with the same forcing?  I'm pretty sure the average annual rise is going to be circa 3ppm for 2016.  For 2015 it was 2.96 and 2016 was higher, driven by the El Nino.

The lowest differential, this year so far, was 3.08 in January.  Peaked at 3.6 in July/August and is at 3.57 in September.

To me, unless something really drastically changes for the last quarter, that looks like >3ppm average annual rise.

That certainly won't help with this years freezing season.

Add to that the 15mm SLR in the last 18 months (reported on the blog) and things are looking a tad more towards abrupt step change than towards gradual change.

We're just ending two "interesting" years.  I have no doubt that 2017 is also going to be special in it's own way.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #756 on: November 16, 2016, 11:32:48 PM »
Maybe Mother N. likes Hooke's Law?

Maybe the Feb QBO 'event' was Her twanging the 'Elastic Limit'?

Maybe the upcoming 65N SSW is Her giving it another 'Twang'?
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JimboOmega

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #757 on: November 16, 2016, 11:33:39 PM »
Right now, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing a very strong cyclonic event bring warm wet air up from mid-latitude.
The current 15 Nov 2016 event is shown unfolding below. Watch the color overlays of wind for colors from the south that have penetrated to the north. As noted in the Nasa voice-over, warm moist air from mid-latitude is deleterious to ice formation and net radiation from open water to space. Three ‘moisture’ channels are included in the slide show though quantitative effects are murky. The Arctic Ocean was described as arid in years gone by.

Rain today and yesterday in the Franz Josef Land. 81 North.

Max temp of +1.6 C is a new November record there.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=20046&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2016&mes=11&day=16&hora=18

There's a lot of ice around franz josef land (per ASMR2), but cci-reanalyzer shows it above 0C now and indeed, around a lot of the ice edge in that area.

Given that extent isn't responding quite so drastically to such temperatures... and understanding we're in uncharted territory here... is it possible that ice forms and/or survives even at near-freezing temperatures because it loses more heat radiatively (to space) than it gains conductively (from air)?

I'd be interested to know what the energy flows look like at the ice surface for various temperature regimes... We should be able to look at factors like ice surface temperature, clouds/IR emissions and air temperature to determine if the ice pack is actually gaining or losing energy at the top.

And if it is losing energy... compare that to the historical values to determine how much less ice it is capable of forming.

Everyone has been saying volume in particular should be terrible, but do we have any numbers to back that up? Other than PIOMAS which just crossed into record territory (and is not way, way beyond it as temps are)

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #758 on: November 16, 2016, 11:59:41 PM »
http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/

The Blue on the right hand image ( the second line of images?) show me that Piomas may take a further dip if Fram opens up over winter?
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #759 on: November 17, 2016, 12:17:05 AM »

I'll be interested to see just how much we climb in 2017.  Was it just the Nino?  Is the Ocean finally beginning to reject new CO2 absorption?  Will the levelling of emissions from humans actually stop the annual rises or will they continue anyway with the same forcing?  I'm pretty sure the average annual rise is going to be circa 3ppm for 2016.  For 2015 it was 2.96 and 2016 was higher, driven by the El Nino.


CO2 is interesting as the hammer that hit the bullet...but the bullet is still H2O.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #760 on: November 17, 2016, 12:30:43 AM »
Here is an update on the 954 hPa cyclone that just blew through the Fram Strait into the northeastern Arctic Ocean. For reference, the the 23 Aug 2016 event attained a low of 969 hPa and the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 bottomed out at 966 hPa. Probably should wait a week to see what reanalysis of nullschool GFS data looks like.

It's problematic to compare the effect of storms of different location, duration and timing. However this one is bringing prolonged strong winds, up to 83 kph, across a long open reach perpendicular to a thousand km ice front which is very unfavorable to newly formed or even thin ice.

More detail is available on the 28 Dec 2015 cyclone: 'during the height of the storm, the mean air temperatures in the Kara and Barents seas were 10ºC warmer than the baseline for the date (since 2003). The extremely warm and humid air mass associated with the cyclone caused an amount of energy equivalent to the power used in one year by half a million American homes to be transferred from the atmosphere to the surface of the sea ice. As a result, the area’s sea ice thinned by almost 10 centimeters on average.

At the same time, the storm winds pushed the edges of the sea ice north, compacting the ice pack. “During the cyclone, the sea ice retreated northward, causing a loss in coverage equaling the area of the state of Florida,” said Linette Boisvert, lead author of the study..

Several talks at AGU2016 from floe drift camps are very pertinent to storm effects on ice in the Svalbard region:

C34A-07: Six Months of Ocean Mixing Rates and Heat Flux in the Arctic North of Svalbard
Wednesday, 14 December 2016

Heat fluxes and mixing processes between the ocean and the sea ice are key to understanding the energy budget of the new first year sea ice regime in the Arctic. Here we present observations collected between January and June 2015 during the Norwegian Young sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard.

Oceanographic, atmospheric, sea ice, snow and biological data were collected above, on, and below the ice using R/V Lance as the base for the ice camps that were drifting south towards the Fram Strait. Over six months, four different drifts took place, from the Nansen Basin, through the marginal ice zone, to the open ocean.

Throughout the drifts, the oceanography team collected turbulence measurements to estimate mixing and heat fluxes in the ice-ocean boundary layer and between the sub-surface warm Atlantic Water layer and the ice-ocean boundary layer close to freezing point. Water tracer data was collected to map water mass properties, and the distribution of the Atlantic Water inflow.

Using 600 under-ice microstructure profiles, mixing rates and heat fluxes were estimated in the upper ocean (300 m). These were combined with high resolution heat flux estimates near the ice-ocean interface from turbulence instrument clusters.

We show that both in winter and spring, large atmospheric storms enhanced mixing throughout the mixed layer and beyond. In spring, the presence of shallow inflowing Atlantic Water over the Yermak Plateau combined with enhanced mixing from wind forcing resulted in the largest heat flux to sea ice recorded and spectacular basalt melt events. Such ocean heat fluxes play a significant role in the overall energy budget of the sea ice in this region.

C41A-0640: Hydrographic and Current Observations Collected during the N-ICE2015 Expedition in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard (Invited)
Thursday, 15 December 2016

New oceanographic observations from the Eurasian Basin north of Svalbard collected between January and June 2015 during the Norwegian Young sea Ice (N-ICE2015) are presented. For six months, oceanographic, atmospheric, sea ice, snow and biological data were collected above, on, and below the sea ice using R/V Lance as the base for the ice camps that were drifting south towards the Fram Strait.

Altogether, four different drifts took place, from the Nansen Basin, through the marginal ice zone, to the open ocean. Throughout the drifts, the oceanography team collected water tracer data and current data to map water mass properties, and the distribution of the Atlantic Water inflow.

The new winter observations contribute to existing climatologies for the Arctic Ocean, and show a 100 m deep winter mixed layer. The recorded current observations cover the water column down to 200 m and show largely barotropic flow, enhanced in strength when the camps drifted over the shallow Yermak Plateau.

The two branches of inflowing Atlantic Water are partly captured, confirming that the outer Yermak branch traces the plateau, and the inner Svalbard branch the coast. The Atlantic Water is found directly below the mixed layer down to 800 m depth, and is warmest along the slope. In late May the drift was over the Yermak Plateau and sea ice melt was observed as the drift approached the ice edge and hydrographic conditions changed dramatically.

C34A-08: Seasonal thickness changes of Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard and implications for satellite remote sensing, ecosystem, and environmental management
Wednesday, 14 December 2016

Sea-ice thickness is a crucial parameter to consider when assessing the status of Arctic sea ice, whether for environmental management, monitoring projects, or regional or pan-arctic assessments. Modern satellite remote sensing techniques allow us to monitor ice extent and to estimate sea-ice thickness changes; but accurate quantifications of sea-ice thickness distribution rely on in situ and airborne surveys.

From January to June 2015, an international expedition (N-ICE2015) took place in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard, with the Norwegian research vessel RV Lance frozen into drifting sea ice. In total, four drifts, with four different floes were made during that time.

Sea-ice and snow thickness measurements were conducted on all main ice types present in the region, first year ice, multiyear ice, and young ice. Measurement methods included ground and helicopter based electromagnetic surveys, drillings, hot-wire installations, snow-sonde transects, snow stakes, and ice mass balance and snow buoys.

Ice thickness distributions revealed modal thicknesses in spring between 1.6 and 1.7 m, which is lower than reported for the region from comparable studies in 2009 (2.4 m) and 2011 (1.8 m). Knowledge about the ice thickness distribution in a region is crucial to the understanding of climate processes, and also relevant to other disciplines.

Sea-ice thickness data collected during N-ICE2015 can also give us insights into how ice and snow thicknesses affect ecosystem processes. In this presentation, we will explore the influence of snow cover and ocean properties on ice thickness, and the role of sea-ice thickness in air-ice-ocean interactions. We will also demonstrate how information about ice thickness aids classification of different sea ice types from SAR satellite remote sensing, which has real-world applications for shipping and ice forecasting, and how sea ice thickness data contributes to climate assessments.

C41A-0641: Winter ocean-ice interactions under thin sea ice observed by IAOOS platforms during NICE2015:salty surface mixed layer and active basal melt
Thursday, 15 December 2016

IAOOS platforms, measuring physical parameters at the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interface deployed as part of the N-ICE2015 campaign, provide new insights on winter conditions North of Svalbard. The three regions crossed during the drifts, the Nansen Basin, the Sofia Deep and the Svalbard northern continental slope featured distinct hydrographic properties and ice-ocean exchanges.
 In the Nansen Basin the quiescent warm layer was capped by a stepped halocline (60 and 110 m) and a deep thermocline (110 m). Ice was forming and the winter mixed layer salinity was larger by ~0.1 g/kg than previously observed.

Over the Svalbard continental slope, the Atlantic Water (AW) was very shallow (20 m from the surface) and extended offshore from the 500 m isobath by a distance of about 70 km, sank along the slope (40 m from the surface) and probably shedded eddies into the Sofia Deep. In the Sofia Deep, relatively warm waters of Atlantic origin extended from 90 m downward.

Sea-ice melt was widespread over the Svalbard continental slope and ocean-to-ice heat fluxes reached values of 400 Wm-2 (mean of ~150 Wm-2 over the continental slope). Sea-ice melt events were associated with near 12-hour fluctuations in the mixed-layer temperature and salinity corresponding to the periodicity of tides and near-inertial waves potentially generated by winter storms, large barotropic tides over steep topography and/or geostrophic adjustments.


C34A-06: Observations of snow-ice formation in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime during the N-ICE2015 campaign: influence of basal ice melt and storms
Wednesday, 14 December 2016

Seven ice mass balance instruments deployed on different first-year and second-year ice floes, within a distance of 50 km near 83°N representing variable snow and ice conditions, documented the evolution of snow and ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard in Jan-Mar 2015.

Frequent profiles of temperature and thermal resistivity proxy were recorded to distinguish changes in snow depth and ice thickness with 2 cm vertical resolution. Four instruments documented snow-ice formation which was clearly detectable in the simultaneous changes in thermal resistivity proxy, increased temperature and heat propagation through the underlying ice.

Snow-ice formation restored a positive freeboard after storm-induced break-up of snow-loaded floes and/or after loss of buoyancy due to basal ice melt. In the case of break-up, when the ice was cold and not permeable, the rapid snow-ice formation, probably due to lateral intrusion of seawater, led to snow-ice layers at the ocean freezing temperature (-1.88°C).

After the storm the instruments registered basal sea-ice melt over warm Atlantic waters. Basal ablation reached 71 cm and ocean heat fluxes peaked at 400 Wm-2. The warm ice was permeable and the gradual snow-ice formation probably involved vertical intrusion of brines and led to colder snow-ice (-3°C).

In both cases, the exothermal reaction warmed the underlying sea-ice. N-ICE2015 campaign provided the first documentation of significant snow-ice formation in the Arctic ice pack with a fraction of snow-ice to total ice thickness 28%. Snow-ice formation may become a more important process in a thinner-ice Arctic.

Andre

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #761 on: November 17, 2016, 12:31:39 AM »
DMI chart is still heading in the wrong direction. At this point it is just starting to look beyond scary.

Robert Scribbler was really on to something with "the end of winter as we know it".

plinius

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #762 on: November 17, 2016, 12:49:24 AM »
Robert Scribbler is not onto something, at most he might be on something (and I wouldn't want to try it). Does he pay you for spreading his vain fearmongering?
For most of Eurasia it's so far by the way not the end of winter as you know it, but a winter harder than we were used to it even 40 years ago. Part of an extreme WACCy facilitated by the missing ice. Something we have seen throughout the past decade, though not yet as bad as this year.
And @NeilT - it's rather inconsequential if the CO2 level is 401 or 400 this year. At a sensitivity of <2K (no, you can't even use ECS) this makes for an astonishing 0.005K or so. And no, there is no physical process shaping a 10-year pattern in ice loss, that's just your phantasy. Nature does not care about our decimal system.

If you want to brood in warm, fuzzy thoughts of catastrophe that seem to make you happy, perhaps think about what happens to Miami in about 20-30 years. But don't spin stories about this years' El Nino caused +1 ppm of CO2 have a notable effect, or that there is any wisdom in some scribbler phantasizing about a boiling arctic.

Andre

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #763 on: November 17, 2016, 01:03:43 AM »
Robert Scribbler is not onto something, at most he might be on something (and I wouldn't want to try it). Does he pay you for spreading his vain fearmongering?
[...]

I think you read way too much into my comment. I am in no way trying to push any ideas of imminent catastrophe. Rather, I am simply amazed by the unprecedented nature of the temps above 80N at the moment. I look at "the end of winter as we know it" as a good metaphor for simply describing the fact that the current temps are quite incredible and do not represent what we are used to seeing at this time of year.

I think we can both agree that no other year appears to have had fall temps anywhere close to what we are seeing.

I have been following the DMI graphs for some time and simply wanted to share the latest update, as I believe it is an important piece of the puzzle and a good chart to keep track of.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2016, 01:09:42 AM by Andre »

plinius

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #764 on: November 17, 2016, 01:31:17 AM »
I fully agree that the temperatures in the arctic basin are extraordinary, though this is not entirely surprising. Because the ice edge is so close to the pole, you just need a bit of wind from the open water. It's by the way one of the reasons, why I never really accepted people pointing to freezing-degree-days being in the safe region there. Once the ocean is open, it takes a while to freeze back over. However, if we look at the ice now, we will probably start with a minor deficit into the next season, but not even that is sure yet. In three months of freezing, you build still enough ice. This is just a little preview on what will happen in the future, but it's not justified to say that next year the ice will melt out.

Robert Scribbler is something different - there is not much difference between him and an Anthony Watts. One is a fake sceptic who profits from lying about there being no global warming issues, and the other tries to profit from fearmongering. Both unscientific, both dishonest and wrong about physics, and both extremely damaging to a constructive debate and seeking a solution.

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #765 on: November 17, 2016, 01:41:35 AM »
Quote
This is just a little preview on what will happen in the future, but it's not justified to say that next year the ice will melt out.

That is very fair to say and exactly my hope. Chances are that red line will go down at some point. The problem I have is those chances are based on historical data. If the dynamics of the arctic changed from the historical data, they may no longer be valid.

What makes you so confident that the unprecedented changes in Temperature/QBO/Wind Currents have not affected the reliability of historical data?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Andre

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #766 on: November 17, 2016, 01:50:04 AM »
What makes you so confident that the unprecedented changes in Temperature/QBO/Wind Currents have not affected the reliability of historical data?


I think thats a good point.

We always compare every new development to historical baselines. that assumes that these baselines will always be applicable and useful for future forecasts. If ever that no longer holds true, it would take years to attempt and try to establish a new baseline.

For now, all we can do is observe and see whether what we are seeing now is just a short-term blip or an indication of larger changes to come.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #767 on: November 17, 2016, 02:09:59 AM »
And @NeilT - it's rather inconsequential if the CO2 level is 401 or 400 this year. At a sensitivity of <2K (no, you can't even use ECS) this makes for an astonishing 0.005K or so. And no, there is no physical process shaping a 10-year pattern in ice loss, that's just your phantasy. Nature does not care about our decimal system.

Really?

Try going away and remembering the key 10 year cycle which is driven by the biggest contributor to heat retention on this planet.

Just remember that I predicted, in rough, not in fine, what is going on right now before the ice stopped melting.  But why bother remembering that.

If I want a debate like this I can always go to WUWT.  However you have done me a favour.  I need more time in my life and I'm out of this discussion for this year.

Enjoy the show!
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #768 on: November 17, 2016, 02:45:20 AM »

... is it possible that ice forms and/or survives even at near-freezing temperatures because it loses more heat radiatively (to space) than it gains conductively (from air)?


That'd violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics, I'm afraid, as well as be a steep climb because of the 80-fold per unit increased volume of heat that would have to be lost to facilitate the phase change.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2016, 03:19:31 AM by jdallen »
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JayW

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #769 on: November 17, 2016, 03:14:13 AM »
~40 hour loop of AVHRR courtesy of the Canadian meteorological service.

Nov 15/9z -17/0z
http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=hrpt&area=dfo&type=ir
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #770 on: November 17, 2016, 03:18:22 AM »
Quote
Sea-ice melt was widespread over the Svalbard continental slope and ocean-to-ice heat fluxes reached values of 400 Wm-2 (mean of ~150 Wm-2 over the continental slope). Sea-ice melt events were associated with near 12-hour fluctuations in the mixed-layer temperature and salinity corresponding to the periodicity of tides and near-inertial waves potentially generated by winter storms, large barotropic tides over steep topography and/or geostrophic adjustments.
Does strongly implicate the smoking gun behind the now year-round melting along the Atlantic front.

The implications regarding snow coverage and how it limits heat flow out of the ice are similarly quite bad.

I think we are accelerating sharply towards much greater extremes in fluctuation in annual ice coverage.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #771 on: November 17, 2016, 03:59:34 AM »
Zoomed in and made this of the European facing side of the ice front. Nov. 1st-14th


Rob Dekker

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #772 on: November 17, 2016, 06:23:08 AM »
Well it's official now.  CO2 average monthly (Global), for 2016 bottomed out at 400.44 and is on the rise again.  That is the last time anyone on this site, or their children or their grandchildren, will see 3xxppm again.

Thanks Neil. That is a humbling thought, and another indication that we are far from getting on any form of "sustainable environment" path on our planet.

This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #773 on: November 17, 2016, 06:42:10 AM »
Zoomed in and made this of the European facing side of the ice front. Nov. 1st-14th

Astonishing.  It isn't just getting pushed back; parts of it appear to be actually melting back.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #774 on: November 17, 2016, 06:52:25 AM »
Zoomed in and made this of the European facing side of the ice front. Nov. 1st-14th

Astonishing.  It isn't just getting pushed back; parts of it appear to be actually melting back.

That's what I thought, but wasn't sure. I guess I wanted to see if anyone else thought it appeared that way.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #775 on: November 17, 2016, 07:11:09 AM »
Zoomed in and made this of the European facing side of the ice front. Nov. 1st-14th

Astonishing.  It isn't just getting pushed back; parts of it appear to be actually melting back.

How widespread this chinese hoax really is? We should really build our satellites only of american parts and severe the ties to european and japanese space agencies in order to get some real data. It appears they've infiltrated the military too.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #776 on: November 17, 2016, 07:27:08 AM »
it's rather inconsequential if the CO2 level is 401 or 400 this year. At a sensitivity of <2K (no, you can't even use ECS) this makes for an astonishing 0.005K or so.

it is not, however, inconsequential that China (and presumably Korea and Vietnam) coal consumption is down by 10% in the first 6 months of 2016 and that regional attempts to reduce smog pollution have greatly reduced SO2 emissions.  Nor is it inconsequential that the most recent El Nino event has significantly increased atmospheric water vapor content, leading to super-charged storms and stronger polar jet blocking patterns, leading to large increases in water vapor (and latent heat) intrusion into the polar cell.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #777 on: November 17, 2016, 07:34:10 AM »

I'll be interested to see just how much we climb in 2017.  Was it just the Nino?  Is the Ocean finally beginning to reject new CO2 absorption?  Will the levelling of emissions from humans actually stop the annual rises or will they continue anyway with the same forcing?  I'm pretty sure the average annual rise is going to be circa 3ppm for 2016.  For 2015 it was 2.96 and 2016 was higher, driven by the El Nino.


CO2 is interesting as the hammer that hit the bullet...but the bullet is still H2O.

I agree. What has changed is the amount of atmospheric moisture in the Arctic, previously cold, low moisture and relatively cloud free. This winter moisture is preventing heat from radiating out into space., a new climate regime.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #778 on: November 17, 2016, 07:58:30 AM »
That being the case, a monster has been created and turned loose. If some genius wakes up tomorrow morning and says to himself, "Eureka, I know how to get rid of the CO2," that's all good, but the extra moisture has already been put into play and is still there.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #779 on: November 17, 2016, 08:27:03 AM »
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible [...]
The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS

The two are not comparable: one is data, one is a model.  You need both.  The only data we have on volume is Cryosat, which is still quite experimental and nowhere near as high resolution or as detailed as SIE/SIA measurements.

Yes indeed. I for one don't take much comfort from that, since the model was validated under conditions so different from today that I wouldn't be surprised if the only two things we know still to be true about it are that a) when it is predicting the wrong thickness, it is reconciled with reality only when the thickness is observed to go from +ve to zero, and b) when this occurs, the immediately previous estimate is more often than not over by at least 0.5-1m.

...which would seem to indicate that the PIOMAS, however abysmal, is more likely to be overestimating the actual volume than erring on the low side.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #780 on: November 17, 2016, 11:22:19 AM »
Really?

Try going away and remembering the key 10 year cycle which is driven by the biggest contributor to heat retention on this planet.

Just remember that I predicted, in rough, not in fine, what is going on right now before the ice stopped melting.  But why bother remembering that.

If I want a debate like this I can always go to WUWT.  However you have done me a favour.  I need more time in my life and I'm out of this discussion for this year.

Enjoy the show!

I am eagerly listening. What are the mechanics of a 10-year cycle of arctic sea ice in your opinion? So far I have just heard empty words, nothing with substance.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #781 on: November 17, 2016, 12:04:44 PM »
Plinious.

 Please read back your posts to yourself before hitting reply as this one  ( above) does not come across as very nice?

I don't know about the 06' /96'/86' cycle but NSIDC worked out ,after 07's drops, that there was a 10 to 20 year 'perfect melt storm synoptic' cycle and that the two previous to 07' respected the 10 year spacing so the year prior to the storm may also have been drawn into that pattern ?

After a number of years worrying about 2017 being the first opportunity, within the recognised cycle, that the 07' synoptics could trawl back through the Basin I now understand that the basin is  so altered ( just look at what we are/have been seeing across the basin recently) that such 'old Arctic' behaviours probably no longer apply?

NeilT might reflect upon that when he looks at his ten year spacing event but he should not be castigated for holding up what he sees as being of import?

With Neven taking a well earned rest it would be nice if he could return to a site that is still full of personal respect and kindness toward others?
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plinius

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #782 on: November 17, 2016, 12:17:31 PM »
While respecting persons, I do not respect misinformation, pseudoscientific statements, and fearmongering as denialism. Respect also does not imply being "nice".

So, let's start with you, Gray-Wolf. You state that NSIDC found out a 10-20 year cycle (which I can't, neither in physics, nor in the statistics). Please back up your rather weird claim with a quote, so that other people can find this and read up. Or are you just like NeilT talking without facts?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #783 on: November 17, 2016, 12:32:25 PM »
Hi Plinius!

I opened a thread on this site ( in this section) for the return of the perfect melt storm and others kindly came along with the statements???

Where did you look?
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #784 on: November 17, 2016, 01:37:46 PM »
Here is a 01-16 Nov update to the Atlantic-facing ice front encompassing the huge cyclone of 13 Nov 16 and many days of strong poleward wind carrying warm moist air from the south. Massive melt, just like before.

Next up: the St Anna Trough incursion will be gone with another couple of days of this wind, water, and air temperature. That's only a beginning of the long-term effects of this storm.

Open water in the high resolution AMSR2 animations is recolored mauve, 100% concentration sea ice green. The palette on the UHH product allows any combination of concentration ranges to be brought out.

It's a clever one because it uses equal perceptual luminosities (0.21 red + 0.72  green + 0.07 blue) and consequently drops down to equal grays upon applying 'desaturase' in gimp. Is one of the many AMRS2 products more accurate? -- they all look about the same on ice edge and all are affected by passing atmospheric artifacts.

People here seem to have zero interest in what the scientific community does. Actually quite a few very recent articles speak to winter conditions earlier in this cycle and their significance to melt season and Arctic amplification.

It's probably better to digest these first, especially the data-driven ones, before wandering off into the speculative arena?

I located the L Boisvert paper tied to the Nasa visualization of the gigantic storm of 27 Dec 15, which had very similar effects to what we are seeing below. Her work with the AIRS instrument on Aqua is providing a lot of good data on evaporation, water, clouds, radiative feedback and so forth, highly recommended.

Possibly we can replicate those methods and analyze the Nov 13th storm ourselves. The AIRS data is not one of the Aqua channels provided at WorldView, so as a backup I wrote to see if she had a left-over script that could be run on the current storm.

The Impact of the Extreme Winter 2015/16 Arctic Cyclone on the Barents–Kara Seas
Linette N. Boisvert and Alek A. Petty  Julienne C. Stroeve
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0234.1
 
Atmospheric data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) were used to study an extreme warm and humid air mass transported over the Barents–Kara Seas region by an Arctic cyclone at the end of December 2015. Temperature and humidity in the region was ~10°C (>3σ above the 2003–14 mean) warmer and ~1.4 g kg−1 (>4σ above the 2003–14 mean) wetter than normal during the peak of this event.

This anomalous air mass resulted in a large and positive flux of energy into the surface via the residual of the surface energy balance (SEB), compared to the weakly negative SEB from the surface to the atmosphere expected for that time of year.

The magnitude of the downwelling longwave radiation during the event was unprecedented compared to all other events detected by AIRS in December/January since 2003. An approximate budget scaling suggests that this anomalous SEB could have resulted in up to 10 cm of ice melt.

Thinning of the ice pack in the region was supported by remotely sensed and modeled estimates of ice thickness change. Understanding the impact of this anomalous air mass on a thinner, weakened sea ice state is imperative for understanding future sea ice–atmosphere interactions in a warming Arctic.

http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio/linette.n.boisvert

Boisvert, L. N., J. N. Lee, B. Noel, M. R. van den Broeke, and A. W. Nolin. 2016. "Using remotely sensed data from AIRS to estimate the vapor flux on the Greenland Ice Sheet: comparisons with observations and a regional climate model." Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, (Conditionally Accepted)

Boisvert, L. N., A. A. Petty, and J. C. Stroeve. 2016. "The Impact of the Extreme Winter 2015/16 Arctic Cyclone on the Barents–Kara Seas." Monthly Weather Review, [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0234.1]

Cullather, R. I., Y.-K. Lim, L. N. Boisvert, et al. 2016. "Analysis of the warmest Arctic winter, 2015-2016." Geophysical Research Letters, (In Press) [10.1002/2016GL071228]

Serreze, M., J. C. Stroeve, A. P. Barrett, and L. N. Boisvert. 2016. "Summer Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and Their Influences on September Sea Ice Extent: A Cautionary Tale." Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, [10.1002/2016JD025161]

Boisvert, L. N., D. L. Wu, T. Vihma, and J. Susskind. 2015. "Verification of air/surface humidity differences from AIRS and ERA-Interim in support of turbulent flux estimation in the Arctic." J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120 (3): 945–963 [10.1002/2014JD021666]

Boisvert, L. N., and J. C. Stroeve. 2015. "The Arctic is becoming warmer and wetter as revealed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder." Geophys. Res. Lett., 42 (11): 4439-4446 [10.1002/2015GL063775]
« Last Edit: November 17, 2016, 02:20:12 PM by A-Team »

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #785 on: November 17, 2016, 01:45:38 PM »

While respecting persons, I do not respect misinformation, pseudoscientific statements, and fearmongering as denialism. Respect also does not imply being "nice".

Do you have anything to add to the thread other than "Stop talking about it because it is scary"?

I'm waiting for your scientific explanation of why there is no reason to believe that these changes do not represent a phase change for the arctic.

We all "know" that red line is eventually going to come down, but what if it doesn't?  Is this not an appropriate place to talk about that? Is this not an appropriate place to show our ignorance  and be corrected for the benefit of all?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #786 on: November 17, 2016, 01:47:36 PM »
I must say I agree with Plinius' basic point that the year numbering system has no correlation to the weather, but I see no reason to be harsh and disrespectful while posting.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #787 on: November 17, 2016, 02:12:22 PM »
As I understand it we had been in a period of forcings , for over 20 years, that effectively buried warmed Pacific tropical waters into the column below ( exposing further upwelled waters to warm. This cycle flipped in 2014 and global temps haven't looked back since!

Could this switch to 'warmed surface' mean the atmosphere is now constantly recharging its heat cargo and send it North? If so why must the Red Line fall by much over the coming months? If WAA after WAA keeps on arriving at the Pacific/Atlantic ends of the Basin why should we not see elevated temps maintain across the whole winter ( genuine question by the way!)
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #788 on: November 17, 2016, 02:25:08 PM »
As I understand it we had been in a period of forcings , for over 20 years, that effectively buried warmed Pacific tropical waters into the column below ( exposing further upwelled waters to warm. This cycle flipped in 2014 and global temps haven't looked back since!

Could this switch to 'warmed surface' mean the atmosphere is now constantly recharging its heat cargo and send it North? If so why must the Red Line fall by much over the coming months? If WAA after WAA keeps on arriving at the Pacific/Atlantic ends of the Basin why should we not see elevated temps maintain across the whole winter ( genuine question by the way!)
I believe a lot of the anomaly (but surely not all) is due to a refreeze delay of several weeks. Looking at the AMSR regional charts of the peripheral seas, the Beaufort CAA and ESS all finished filling up with ice only last week. In addition, the Chukchi should fill up in a month, and the Kara in two months. Even with more refreeze delays, I am guessing the DMI temps red line will drop to a smaller anomaly when that process comes to its full effect.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #789 on: November 17, 2016, 02:45:09 PM »
Quote
In addition, the Chukchi should fill up in a month, and the Kara in two months.

I think the big difference is in the Kara. Look at the median of the attached NSIDC extent map. The Kara should be covered with ice and thickening as we speak. Although it is likely that the kara will eventually refreeze, it will probably be thinner than usual. That may lead to faster melt than usual, with a much earlier than usual Atlantic intrusion into the CAB.



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plinius

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #790 on: November 17, 2016, 02:58:57 PM »
As I understand it we had been in a period of forcings , for over 20 years, that effectively buried warmed Pacific tropical waters into the column below ( exposing further upwelled waters to warm. This cycle flipped in 2014 and global temps haven't looked back since!

Could this switch to 'warmed surface' mean the atmosphere is now constantly recharging its heat cargo and send it North? If so why must the Red Line fall by much over the coming months? If WAA after WAA keeps on arriving at the Pacific/Atlantic ends of the Basin why should we not see elevated temps maintain across the whole winter ( genuine question by the way!)

So, in other words, you have nothing to back up your 10-year cycle claim?
And, by the way, the heat inflow through the Bering is far below what you need to cause the current anomalies, and in addition there is no evidence for any _cycle_ there.
WLA over the atlantic and pacific is not part of a 10-year cycle, but simply related to the WACCy situation, which is caused by the shift.

Concerning being harsh - yes, I definitely think that one should be harsh with such people. If you remember a tiny bit of discussion history, the last time we saw a longer-term cycle pop up, was those silly 30-year and 60-year climate cycles that were pushed by pseudosceptics. Why were they successful for so long? At least partly, because the other side hasn't learned to clearly separate fact and fiction.
It's nothing personal, but if someone talks bullshit, there is a duty to classify it as such.

plinius

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #791 on: November 17, 2016, 03:30:17 PM »
Do you have anything to add to the thread other than "Stop talking about it because it is scary"?

Never said that, so stop lying please.

I'm waiting for your scientific explanation of why there is no reason to believe that these changes do not represent a phase change for the arctic.
I never denied a drastic change, I explicitly stated that my zero hypothesis is that WACCy of this phenomenal strength is triggered by the open ocean. This also implies that the strength will probably shrink in ~1 month when more ocean is frozen over.
I also do not have to give a scientific explanation for some theory not being valid, just like we do not have to scientifically explain why the chimaera or Pegasus do not exist. It's enough to show that such claims lack their basis.

We all "know" that red line is eventually going to come down, but what if it doesn't?  Is this not an appropriate place to talk about that? Is this not an appropriate place to show our ignorance  and be corrected for the benefit of all?
Showing and discussing one's ignorance is not a bad thing. Speaking with conviction while being ignorant, is. Get the difference? Apart from that, there is no black magic in predicting that the red line in the dmi graph will come down. I am happy to offer you a 10:1 bet that dmi will show <255K some time before next March. We have models to assess the situation, so you have to show why (scientific) models are wrong.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #792 on: November 17, 2016, 03:30:35 PM »

<snip>

This anomalous air mass resulted in a large and positive flux of energy into the surface via the residual of the surface energy balance (SEB), compared to the weakly negative SEB from the surface to the atmosphere expected for that time of year.

<snip>


I think it might come to pass that the anomalous air mass is not so anomalous. Interesting read A Team.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #793 on: November 17, 2016, 04:11:05 PM »
Speaking with conviction while being ignorant, is.

you mean like asserting that this is caused by open ocean water in the arctic when previous years' open ocean values were higher (2012) or very similar (2007, 2010, 2011, 2015) and yet we had no similar activity?   ;D
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #794 on: November 17, 2016, 04:36:55 PM »
Quote
People here seem to have zero interest in what the scientific community does. Actually quite a few very recent articles speak to winter conditions earlier in this cycle and their significance to melt season and Arctic amplification.

Plenty of interest, but unfortunately no access!

I'm really, really not trying to be facetious - but perhaps the AMS (at al.) might consider dropping their paywalls if they want people to pay attention to the scientific community. Maybe they could have an advertising-supported option for the outsiders?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #795 on: November 17, 2016, 05:05:12 PM »

Plenty of interest, but unfortunately no access!


I find Google Scholar quite useful  to look for open-access versions of papers (as I only can afford the Science subscription). 

If this gentle methode doesn't work. The Sci-hub-hammer breaks nearly every paywall with ease ;D (use at your one risk of course ;))

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #796 on: November 17, 2016, 05:06:54 PM »
According to the 48h ECMWF forecast, we can expect the current Atlantic situation to remain much the same for the coming days. Might see even more retreat along the ice edge there.


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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #797 on: November 17, 2016, 05:24:58 PM »
Quote
People here seem to have zero interest in what the scientific community does. Actually quite a few very recent articles speak to winter conditions earlier in this cycle and their significance to melt season and Arctic amplification.
Plenty of interest, but unfortunately no access!

True, however one can sometimes find free copies of articles just by googling the article title.  Also by googling the title you'll get a broader take on what others think and summarize from it.

Here is a 2 minute synopsis video related to the article that A-Team references: "The Impact of the Extreme Winter 2015/16 Arctic Cyclone on the Barents–Kara Seas"  see
« Last Edit: November 17, 2016, 05:36:32 PM by Ice Shieldz »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #798 on: November 17, 2016, 05:39:12 PM »
Global water vapor anomalies (60'S to 60'N)  If arctic anomalies were included you can bet they would be much higher this year.

h/t Anthony Masiello
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/799284212494831616
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #799 on: November 17, 2016, 06:00:49 PM »
Quote
People here seem to have zero interest in what the scientific community does. Actually quite a few very recent articles speak to winter conditions earlier in this cycle and their significance to melt season and Arctic amplification.
Sorry A-Team if I've seemed inattentive to the stream of articles you've posted; I have great interest in what the community is doing.  What I haven't had is sufficient time.

I will do what I can to sort through some of those journals and comment on them.
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