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meddoc

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #850 on: November 19, 2016, 11:31:38 AM »
Just my logical thoughts:

seeing the Arctic temp anomalies- I'd say this is even without the two most important feedbacks kicking in full swing (methane, albedo- loss)- a global warming potential of + 20- 30 C is not even out of the equasion.
 :o

slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #851 on: November 19, 2016, 11:55:46 AM »
No more strong Arctic storms in the forecast horizon for the coming week, and a high pressure system settling in in the central Arctic Basin.

Temperatures there should drop. Will the DMI temperature graph drop down as far as the baseline, this month? Before the end of 2016?

be cause

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #852 on: November 19, 2016, 11:59:58 AM »
meddoc .. would be true if we were starting with a frozen planet . Thankfully we are not .
SIS .. for the last 4 weeks most of the heat has been very obviously pouring into the arctic drowning out any local imput (see my reply 293 ) . As this pattern is now changing so will Arctic temps .
 Autumn in the Arctic is nearly over .. it's been exciting .. much more so than watching ice melt in summer ..
Thanks to all contributers lately .. I now realize I have to wait till after events like this for science to comment .. :)
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 12:07:01 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #853 on: November 19, 2016, 01:14:21 PM »
I look at the attached image and think, "the heat is spilling into Siberia". That must be good for the Arctic.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #854 on: November 19, 2016, 03:55:24 PM »
The WaPo has a good column today to go along with the Wunderground post that Andre linked to. It's been a good week for J Francis and the wobbly jet stream.

I would say though it's not really about the ice, it's about the heat budget. And for the Arctic this time of year, it's imperative to have a grip on the atmospheric water column and what infrared capture and back-reflection is doing to the heat radiation budget (ie read the Boisvert papers). Intruding moisture from mid-latitude, whether from a storm or 'just weather', has a major effect on slow cooling of both ice and open water via heating of the air.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/17/the-north-pole-is-an-insane-36-degrees-warmer-than-normal-as-winter-descends/?utm_term=.01606825d4a5&wpisrc=nl_draw&wpmm=1

Quote
slow wing: No more strong Arctic storms in the forecast horizon for the coming week, and a high pressure system settling in in the central Arctic Basin. Temperatures there should drop
Hycom is also showing things settling down in their six day forecast, though it's hard to say what their fringing thin white ice really amounts to vis-a-vis AMSR2. Otherwise, Fram export will be ramping up notably after a few weeks of stagnancy.

The blink comparator below compares today with Nov 26th. The ice pack is rotating as a rigid body, not about the north pole (which is scarcely the center of the Arctic Ocean) but towards the ESS with fixed point near 85ºN 170ºE.

Ice that cannot partake of this rotation because Greenland is in the way gets forced down the Fram as ice rotates in from the east (above Svalbard) with the lower part scrapped off by NE Greenland at Prins Christian. (The thousand km lead opening up along the CAA coast is something we have seen many times before and has no long-term significance.)

The issue today with Fram export is not so much remarkable volume but rather percentage of dwindling thicker multi-year ice that is going out the one-way door to melt at a more southern sea's expense.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 07:20:27 PM by A-Team »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #855 on: November 19, 2016, 04:40:04 PM »
Thank you A-Team, great perspective. In the article Mark Serreze's words go similarly
“The sea ice is at a record low right now, for this time of year, that’s one thing,” Serreze said. “And why it’s so low — again, there’s so much heat in the upper ocean in these ice-free areas, the ice just can’t form right now. The ocean’s just got to get rid of this heat somehow, and it’s having a hard time doing so.”
So it is a combination of several factors, and the extra moisture carried into the Arctic is in fact serving as a cage, some of us are just learning. Substantial direct advection of heat into the Arctic as well, it seems. But "there's so much heat in the upper ocean in these ice-free areas..."  :-|

@Wili, I am trying to find the plot (from U Colorado I believe) that shows evolution of specific humidity at global level, with a correlation of peaks one-two years lasting after Niños (except for 1982/83) and then subsiding, but with a significant increase over the last fifty years independent from the Niños. Not to confuse with the declining relative humidity plots that deniers misuse all around to discredit AGW theory. If this rings a bell and somebody knows this specific publication (I read some time ago but I forget as soon as I read)...
Edit: actually the plot is somehow similar to what Jai Mitchell posted before with precipitable water, sorry for missing it
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg94145.html#msg94145
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 05:16:15 PM by seaicesailor »

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #856 on: November 19, 2016, 05:02:11 PM »
Quote
It's been a good week for J Francis and the wobbly jet stream.

What I fear the most is that gravity alone is not enough to restore the atmospheric currents to its previous variability. It's been hundreds(thousands?) of years since the atmosphere was disturbed by events like the ones we are seeing. I think we must go back to the early Holocene before we find rates of warming that match our current rate of warming.

I think civilization evolved thanks in large part to the lack of variability during the Holocene, but now that those ancient patterns are disturbed, there is no way back. If J. Francis is right, we should not expect climate to return to normal. We might have small bouts of times where the momentum of all patterns is sufficiently similar to 20th century patterns but they will quickly break.

But then again we might get a reprieve like every single warming bout in record, and have a few years of cooling after this. So there might be time. It is very likely we have some time.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #857 on: November 19, 2016, 06:03:50 PM »
In the last 2 days the daily SIE at NSIDC had gone into decline. 

 :o
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt_v2.csv
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #858 on: November 19, 2016, 07:01:40 PM »
Quote
It's been a good week for J Francis and the wobbly jet stream.

What I fear the most is that gravity alone is not enough to restore the atmospheric currents to its previous variability. It's been hundreds(thousands?) of years since the atmosphere was disturbed by events like the ones we are seeing. I think we must go back to the early Holocene before we find rates of warming that match our current rate of warming.



I learned , as a child sloshing buckets of water around, there can be some pretty big 'interference' patterns if you keep a wave propagated? If we Accept that GHG forcing, over the past century, has established a steady ( but increasing?) forcing on the climate system then we ought to expect some real extreme 'interference waves', in the background collaboration of natural cycles, to bring us some shocking events ( like the QBO stall and reversal last Feb?)?

Are we likely a shocking end to this shove of the " ice loss forced ,late re-freeze" this year or are other 'planetary' changes involved ( stratospheric cycles/tropospheric 'cycles?) ?
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #859 on: November 19, 2016, 07:09:40 PM »
Do we need to re-open the melt season thread or just start a new one, like: melt season #2?

We keep hearing that the pattern will change soon, but what's to prevent it from changing back later?
Lack of multi-year ice equals a weak ac system for the Earth.
And if the last of the multi-year ice that is there doesn't get frozen more solid before long it's going to be pushed to the Fram.

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #860 on: November 19, 2016, 07:19:46 PM »
From: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/monitor

Animation of Sea ice thickness from 11/10-11/18

Edit: For some reason is not animating. I used the Gif provided by the site, maybe there is something wrong with that. I will remove animation and attach what I think is the most interesting frame.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 07:59:32 PM by Archimid »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #861 on: November 19, 2016, 07:28:37 PM »
Do we need to re-open the melt season thread or just start a new one, like: melt season #2?

We keep hearing that the pattern will change soon, but what's to prevent it from changing back later?
Lack of multi-year ice equals a weak ac system for the Earth.
And if the last of the multi-year ice that is there doesn't get frozen more solid before long it's going to be pushed to the Fram.

I think the models cannot process the data they are being fed with? It is so outside the normal range that we are seeing 'weird' things occur ,like a 2040 mb 'LOW' circulating a 2049 'High', or a melting pole whilst minus 40's circulate to the South?

What we see is the models struggling as they move away from initial data and veer toward data from 'climatic means' so leaving unreliable forecasts before 3 days is out?

The 65N SSW on /around the 26th of Nov also seems to have melted away? What extremes must those models have been messing with to conjour that up only to see it fade as the due date approaches?
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CalamityCountdown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #862 on: November 19, 2016, 07:57:42 PM »
A chart created by Wipneus and posted on this forum is going viral. I saw it on Wunderground and also on this Buzzfeed article that was on the first page of Google News
https://www.buzzfeed.com/dinograndoni/arctic-sea-ice-is-freakishly-low-right-now
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 08:07:24 PM by CalamityCountdown »

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #863 on: November 19, 2016, 08:17:07 PM »
The 65N SSW on /around the 26th of Nov also seems to have melted away? What extremes must those models have been messing with to conjour that up only to see it fade as the due date approaches?
Well not entirely melted away.  Questioning whether a zonal reversal would translate into more arctic warm intrusions anyway? On the flip side, consider the warm intrusions over the past several weeks that the jet stream's pattern let in without a reversal at 10 hpa.  PS: bottom pane is current GFS forecast.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 09:03:07 PM by Ice Shieldz »

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #864 on: November 19, 2016, 08:21:24 PM »
A chart created by Wipneus and posted on this forum is going viral. I saw it on Wunderground and also on this Buzzfeed article that was on the first page of Google News
https://www.buzzfeed.com/dinograndoni/arctic-sea-ice-is-freakishly-low-right-now

Quote
After the chart went viral, NSIDC was inundated with media inquiries about the graph. The center asked Meier, the NASA ice scientist, to verify the chart.
“I haven’t been able to exactly recreate the plot,” Meier said. But he said that he was able to confirm that the combined sea ice coverage in Arctic and Antarctic are indeed at record lows.
Zachary Labe, a Ph.D. student in climate science at the University of California, Irvine, was one of the first people to tweet the chart. The chart was made by an internet user named “Wipneus” who, Labe told BuzzFeed News, has been posting on online sea ice forums and making visualizations for years.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #865 on: November 19, 2016, 08:42:00 PM »
Fantastic! And I am quite sure that wipneus did it right -- he's been improving on their stuff for years. About time they left their silo and learned how to replicate all the things he is doing better. Some of it is rather basic, like defining sensible Arctic Ocean boundaries.

Obviously here wip did Arctic and Antarctic separately before doing the curious and unexpected combo so all three are out there for dissecting contributions to the anomaly. Something is thus wrong because NSIDC should be able to replicate the first two and so the third.

I have to agree with Meier that producing this combo could be a poor idea in general. It is the kind of thing used to confuse by the denier community. Also the poles are totally out of phase with summer insolation and winter radiation back to space. And annual Antarctic sea ice raises wholly different issues than its more important floating ice shelves; it's not so much about albedo and planetary heat amplification as unstoppable glacial collapse and sea level ice. (AbruptSLR has -9000 posts elaborating on every aspect of this.)

One confusion I am seeing in earlier posts here is that just because 2016 is starting to superficially resemble earlier years (in terms of diminishing open water), it is not starting to resemble 2015 in terms of ice thickness (or its integral, total ice volume).

The animation provides a side-by side of ten days of 2016 ending 26 Nov 16 with ten days of ten days of 2015, the latter offset ten days, ie 26 Nov 16 vs 06 Dec 2015, the 25th vs the 05th etc. Even 'giving 2015 a break' in this way, 2016 is nowhere near as thick as 2015, ie has notably less total ice volume. Recall 2015 gave us a very worrisome start to the last melt season.

As a technical note, the 30 day and 365 hycom runs were unoptimized and cut down to the respective time spans. They do not quite use the same base map on these (which is in desperate need of replacement of heavy longitude lines and gratuitous text overlying precious data; no mask or removal possible.) The palette is quite muddy and does not allow elementary arithmetic comparison of years, eg by differencing, without discretizing colors and stubbing in a linear grayscale palette into a massive file) Like most thickness maps, the resolution is very poor, a small number of pixels are pressed into duty to represent a very large ocean, causing problems in enlarged the central area.

In normal scientific GIS, I could have clicked for a graphical 'dot product' of today's date with all 365 dates of last year and posted the proper offset (best fit to 2015). Here they don't even seem to furnish the raw netCDF. Ironically, they probably computed a proper scientific palette but then tossed it in making the pretty one. Do both, AWS is cheap. But like the Saudis say, the Stone Age didn't end because people ran out of stones.

On the piomas thickness, which is also of poor resolution and accuracy, the scientists involved rightly say that a lot of error stays the same and so drops out upon computing day to day (or month to month) change along the lines of (x1 + E) - (x2 + E) = x1-x2.

However, this may not so much be the case in comparing year to year because the algorithm has to act on the contextual situation it is given, which is not all that similar any more, notably with 1.5 m ice and below being more dominant today.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 09:39:09 PM by A-Team »

SteveMDFP

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #866 on: November 19, 2016, 08:50:10 PM »
A chart created by Wipneus and posted on this forum is going viral. I saw it on Wunderground and also on this Buzzfeed article that was on the first page of Google News
https://www.buzzfeed.com/dinograndoni/arctic-sea-ice-is-freakishly-low-right-now

Quote
After the chart went viral, NSIDC was inundated with media inquiries about the graph. The center asked Meier, the NASA ice scientist, to verify the chart.
“I haven’t been able to exactly recreate the plot,” Meier said. But he said that he was able to confirm that the combined sea ice coverage in Arctic and Antarctic are indeed at record lows.
Zachary Labe, a Ph.D. student in climate science at the University of California, Irvine, was one of the first people to tweet the chart. The chart was made by an internet user named “Wipneus” who, Labe told BuzzFeed News, has been posting on online sea ice forums and making visualizations for years.

Wipneus (and several others here) are real heroes.  Without compensation, daily doing exacting, precise work to document the ominous changes happening, and presenting findings openly and clearly.  The world is in dire need of such heroes, in many areas.  Thanks, Wipneus.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #867 on: November 19, 2016, 09:06:12 PM »
No red tape here like government agencies have.

Magma.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #868 on: November 19, 2016, 09:22:20 PM »
...Even 'giving 2015 a break' in this way, it is nowhere near as thick as 2016...

Maybe I've misunderstood something, but I don't get this. Estimating visually by the color palette and relative areas, 2016 (offset by 10 days) would seem as if it should have a lower average ice thickness than 2015.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #869 on: November 19, 2016, 09:25:23 PM »
Quote
2016 (offset by 10 days) has a lower average ice thickness than 2015.
Bad typo on my part. Thanks for catching, it's now fixed above: 2015, even with the ten day offset, had considerably greater total ice volume than 2016 despite similar areal coverage. How about with a twenty day offset, or a fifty day? Hycom isn't set up for this as explained above; wipneus can do this better out of piomas.

It might prove interesting to track the daily best fit offset: will it drop as 2016 catches up, or the lag grow over time from slower bottom and top freezing (2016 water/air perhaps not as cold).
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 11:35:40 PM by A-Team »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #870 on: November 19, 2016, 11:32:42 PM »
I have to agree with Meier that producing this combo could be a poor idea in general. It is the kind of thing used to confuse by the denier community.

That is true, however, in this case the correlation to all past annual patterns is strong and the current deviation so large, it is really an important (and the best I have seen) display of global conditions.
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charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #871 on: November 20, 2016, 12:09:35 AM »
Andrew Slater's graphs are not currently being updated (they are the interesting degree day freezing / thawing and temperature ones) - I have had a useful correspondence with NSIDC...

I pointed them to the graphs (which they were impressed with) https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

They are hopefully going to restart these graphs at some point (no idea if the predictive part will return though).  They are also going to do a further update soon....

johnm33

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #872 on: November 20, 2016, 12:14:18 AM »
I was looking at this earlier today and wondered what was causing that feature off the coast of Ellesmere.

 What I was really thinking about was how fractured spread and broken the thicker ice is, I suspect it's just about the same kind of melange on all levels. If thats the case and the rest of the ice is quite thin it explains why the ice is so wind driven. First the winds will be ripping over the thinner ice with a much reduced 'surface effect', thus catching the larger peices. The wind driven movement of the larger peices will, even in the absence of current, expose the bigger peices to ever changing warmer bottom waters. There will be no absence of current because just as the thin ice presents less resistance to the wind the underside of the thin ice will allow any currents to flow more freely, thus the 90% of the thicker peices  below the surface will have more current moving/melting them. So I suspect each of the larger peices has a trail of fresher water leading away from it and is also harvesting thin ice as it moves through it.     
 Looking at Nullschool https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/anim=off/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-44.95,89.79,1336/loc=142.596,82.467
 except for the leadout to Fram, mostly the ice has small positive anomolies showing through, usually the difference between -1.8c and actual temperature, and surprisingly warm air temps., above the -11c needed to freeze exposed seawater anyway. So we have openings in the ice reluctant to freeze, air temps. below zero, constant overturning of surface waters, implicitly, dry air, so probably constant evaporation followed by condensation and the subsequent release of energy into the atmosphere.
 The only way this stops is for the Atlantic waters to stop delivering so much energy to the Arctic, the Pacific too but to a lesser extent. Unfortunately there's a whole ocean of similarly warm waters west of Ireland which in turn are being kept warm by their own evaporative cycle as they move north. Interesting times.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #873 on: November 20, 2016, 12:21:58 AM »

.... just because 2016 is starting to superficially resemble earlier years (in terms of diminishing open water), it is not starting to resemble 2015 in terms of ice thickness (or its integral, total ice volume).

Quite true. 

Ice thickness formation has been in the literature since at least Bydin in 1933.  Lebedev in 1938 presented the formula: thickness (cm) = 1.53 * FDD ^ 0.59 (where FDD is Freezing Degree Days). Berillo in 1961 gave 1.33 * FDD ^ 0.58.   Chris Reynolds covers the basic thermodynamics that leads to these formulas in his post The Simplest Model of Sea Ice Growth

Eyeballing the current DMI N80 graph it appears we've accumulated about 600 FDDs since the end of the melt season.  Baseline would be about 1300 FDDs.  A thickness deficit of 700 FDDs would imply a reduction in thickness of 0.3m (based on 3100 projected FDDs compared to 3800 FDDs for recent years).

Temperatures can return to somewhere near normal and extent can return to somewhere near normal, but it's highly unlikely that the size of the FDD deficit can be recouped.  Ice is going to be significantly thinner come the 2017 melting season.

slow wing

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #874 on: November 20, 2016, 01:01:05 AM »

.... just because 2016 is starting to superficially resemble earlier years (in terms of diminishing open water), it is not starting to resemble 2015 in terms of ice thickness (or its integral, total ice volume).

Quite true. 

Ice thickness formation has been in the literature since at least Bydin in 1933.  Lebedev in 1938 presented the formula: thickness (cm) = 1.53 * FDD ^ 0.59 (where FDD is Freezing Degree Days). Berillo in 1961 gave 1.33 * FDD ^ 0.58.   Chris Reynolds covers the basic thermodynamics that leads to these formulas in his post The Simplest Model of Sea Ice Growth

Eyeballing the current DMI N80 graph it appears we've accumulated about 600 FDDs since the end of the melt season.  Baseline would be about 1300 FDDs.  A thickness deficit of 700 FDDs would imply a reduction in thickness of 0.3m (based on 3100 projected FDDs compared to 3800 FDDs for recent years).

Temperatures can return to somewhere near normal and extent can return to somewhere near normal, but it's highly unlikely that the size of the FDD deficit can be recouped.  Ice is going to be significantly thinner come the 2017 melting season.
Thanks ktonine, very helpful post.

Do I have your calculations correct though?
"Berillo in 1961 gave 1.33 * FDD ^ 0.58"

FDD_baseline = 3800
FDD_2016proj = 3100

H_baseline = 159 cm
H_2016proj = 141 cm

H_deficit2016 = 18 cm.

So the predicted ice thickness in that scenario would be about 18/159 = 11% down from the baseline at the start of the 2017 melt season.


That is for new ice. For multi-year ice, both the fractional and absolute reductions in thickness will be less in this model.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2016, 01:07:02 AM by slow wing »

ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #875 on: November 20, 2016, 01:40:59 AM »

Do I have your calculations correct though?
"Berillo in 1961 gave 1.33 * FDD ^ 0.58"

FDD_baseline = 3800
FDD_2016proj = 3100

H_baseline = 159 cm
H_2016proj = 141 cm

H_deficit2016 = 18 cm.

I used the Lebedev formula - since he's cited more regularly.  I came up with 2.04 and 1.75.  Berillo was based on data from the Siberian side (these are empirical estimates) and his numbers did seem a little low. But that doesn't mean he's incorrect :)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #876 on: November 20, 2016, 01:56:57 AM »
Eyeballing the current DMI N80 graph

I've been moving house, and missed the start of this discussion. For the DMI data see:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.msg94430.html#msg94430
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ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #877 on: November 20, 2016, 02:04:58 AM »
I went ahead and digitized yesterday's DMI N80 chart. 

Using 273.5 as the freezing temperature and for days 225 thru 322 I came up with
695 FDD for 2016
1261 FDD for the baseline

Using 271.7 (-1.8C) as the freezing temperature
519 FDD for 2016
1085 FDD  for the baseline

Either way, the deficit is the same -- 566 FDDs.

Using the Lebedev formula and 3800 FDDs for recent years, this would result in an 18 cm reduction; from 1.98 m to 1.8 m

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #878 on: November 20, 2016, 03:00:45 AM »
I have to agree with Meier that producing this combo could be a poor idea in general. It is the kind of thing used to confuse by the denier community.

That is true, however, in this case the correlation to all past annual patterns is strong and the current deviation so large, it is really an important (and the best I have seen) display of global conditions.

While I have no proof of any correlation between the two polar sea ice deviations from their respective norms; nevertheless, I cannot help but to suspect that the recent large El Nino is contributing to the Antarctic low sea ice extent, while the associate weak La Nina is contributing the Arctic low sea ice extent (& and both deviations could be strengthened by positive cloud feedbacks).  Paleo-data and model forecasts provide weight to such a possible chaotic strange (Lorenz) attractor type of behavior.


Edit 1: See the linked article entitled: "Lorenz attractors, fluids, chaos and climate".

https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2016/11/lorenz-attractors-fluids-chaos-and.html

Edit 2: The following four linked references all indicate that consideration of chaos theory's strange attractors in paleo-eras demonstrate that climate sensitivity is higher than traditional (AR5) climate modeling projections have assumed.

1) Jones, R. N. and Ricketts, J. H.: Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-35, in review, 2016.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-35/
&
http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-35/esd-2016-35.pdf

2) Roger Neville Jones & James Henry Ricketts (2016), "Atmospheric warming 1997–2014: hiatus, pause or regime?"

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305989994_Atmospheric_warming_1997-2014_hiatus_pause_or_regime

3) Ragone, F., Lucarini, V. & Lunkeit, F. (2016), "A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective", Clim Dyn, 46: 1459. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2657-3

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2657-3

4) Anna S. von der Heydt, Peter Ashwin (Submitted on 12 Apr 2016), "State-dependence of climate sensitivity: attractor constraints and palaeoclimate regimes",  arXiv:1604.03311


http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.03311
&
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1604.03311v1.pdf

Edit 3: The last linked reference cite model findings indicating that changes in extratropical clouds associated with a reduction in high latitude albedo can impact poleward atmospheric heat transport via changes in the Hadley cell:

Nicole Feldl, Simona Bordoni & Timothy M. Merlis (September 28 2016), "Coupled high-latitude climate feedbacks and their impact on atmospheric heat transport", Journal of Climate, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0324.1


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0324.1

Abstract: "The response of atmospheric heat transport to anthropogenic warming is determined by the anomalous meridional energy gradient. Feedback analysis offers a characterization of that gradient and hence reveals how uncertainty in physical processes may translate into uncertainty in the circulation response. However, individual feedbacks do not act in isolation. Anomalies associated with one feedback may be compensated by another, as is the case for the positive water vapor and negative lapse rate feedbacks in the tropics. Here we perform a set of idealized experiments in an aquaplanet model to evaluate the coupling between the surface albedo feedback and other feedbacks, including the impact on atmospheric heat transport. In the tropics, the dynamical response manifests as changes in the intensity and structure of the overturning Hadley circulation. Only half of the range of Hadley cell weakening exhibited in these experiments is found to be attributable to imposed, systematic variations in the surface albedo feedback. Changes in extratropical clouds that accompany the albedo changes explain the remaining spread. The feedback-driven circulation changes are compensated by eddy energy flux changes, which reduce the overall spread among experiments. These findings have implications for the efficiency with which the climate system, including tropical circulation and the hydrological cycle, adjusts to high latitude feedbacks, over climate states that range from perennial or seasonal ice to ice-free conditions in the Arctic."
« Last Edit: November 20, 2016, 03:26:52 AM by AbruptSLR »
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #879 on: November 20, 2016, 03:08:37 AM »
Nice posts lately!

Below 26 Nov 16 hycom sea ice thickness is held fixed on the left while the right half steps through the previous 12 months but showing only every 4th day. Basically growth is fairly imperceptible in their color scheme until mid-January or so and doesn't really get cooking on the downside until May.

An appalling AGU2016 abstract describes waves swamping part of a drift camp floe, with the salt water melting some the snow layer but soon freezing on top of the pre-existing ice, thus undoing its previous brine exclusion, throwing off its assumed ice density and so buoyancy, not to mention increased dielectric confusing microwave satellites. With thinner ice, lower freeboards and longer wind reaches today, this is not going to be so unusual. Ice thickness will remain very difficult to measure accurately because of unanticipated effects such as this and variable systematic error that increase with thinness.

Thus hycom thickness will look very much like it does now well into 2017 even though the ice is slowly growing thicker. There doesn't seem to be any practical way to do daily differences (which might be fairly noisy or just inaccurate) nor rolling averages as the display colors go quickly out of gamut.

A simple [0,255] grayscale, or tinted grayscale, stays in gamut no matter what is done to it. The UHH AMSR2 display is probably the best compromise: attractive colors synched to human eye perceptual distinctions that converts to closed gamut for scientific use upon desaturating the luminosity.

High frame-count animations like the one below -- which got some 400 m wide during an internal step -- take a bit of planning to find workarounds for what could be walk-the-dog computational stages that may not have undoes. The Navy products achieve very effective compression and somehow retain higher bit depth to display smooth colors within the limited gif89 standard.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2016, 03:23:36 AM by A-Team »

AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #880 on: November 20, 2016, 04:05:48 AM »
For those who are interested, I provide the following linked reference indicating that certain combinations of model parameters can result in projections of a bifurcation in Arctic sea ice loss associated with increasing greenhouse gate concentrations:

Hill, et al (2016), “Analysis of an Arctic sea ice loss model in the limit of a discontinuous albedo”, SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst. 15-2 (2016), pp. 1163-1192, DOI:10.1137/15M1037718


https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.00059


Abstract: “As Arctic sea ice extent decreases with increasing greenhouse gases, there is a growing interest in whether there could be a bifurcation associated with its loss, and whether there is significant hysteresis associated with that bifurcation. A challenge in answering this question is that the bifurcation behavior of certain Arctic energy balance models have been shown to be sensitive to how ice-albedo feedback is parameterized. We analyze an Arctic energy balance model in the limit as a smoothing parameter associated with ice-albedo feedback tends to zero, which introduces a discontinuity boundary to the dynamical systems model. Our analysis provides a case study where we use the system in this limit to guide the investigation of bifurcation behavior of the original albedo-smoothed system. In this case study, we demonstrate that certain qualitative bifurcation behaviors of the albedo-smoothed system can have counterparts in the limit with no albedo smoothing. We use this perspective to systematically explore the parameter space of the model. For example, we uncover parameter sets for which the largest transition, with increasing greenhouse gases, is from a perennially ice-covered Arctic to a seasonally ice-free state, an unusual bifurcation scenario that persists even when albedo-smoothing is reintroduced. This analysis provides an alternative perspective on how parameters of the model affect bifurcation behavior. We expect our approach, which exploits the width of repelling sliding intervals for understanding the hysteresis loops, would carry over to other positive feedback systems with a similar natural piecewise-smooth limit, and when the feedback strength is likewise modulated with seasons or other periodic forcing.”
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Andre

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #881 on: November 20, 2016, 04:32:33 AM »
The following paper shows that winter sea ice could potentially be lost more rapidly than summer sea ice, which might give us some pause considering the current situation in the arctic.

On the Potential for Abrupt Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1

Abstract:
The authors examine the transition from a seasonally ice-covered Arctic to an Arctic Ocean that is sea ice free all year round under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. It is shown that in comprehensive climate models, such loss of Arctic winter sea ice area is faster than the preceding loss of summer sea ice area for the same rate of warming. In two of the models, several million square kilometers of winter sea ice are lost within only one decade. It is shown that neither surface albedo nor cloud feedbacks can explain the rapid winter ice loss in the climate model MPI-ESM by suppressing both feedbacks in the model. The authors argue that the large sensitivity of winter sea ice area in the models is caused by the asymmetry between melting and freezing: an ice-free summer requires the complete melt of even the thickest sea ice, which is why the perennial ice coverage decreases only gradually as more and more of the thinner ice melts away. In winter, however, sea ice areal coverage remains high as long as sea ice still forms, and then drops to zero wherever the ocean warms sufficiently to no longer form ice during winter. The loss of basinwide Arctic winter sea ice area, however, is still gradual in most models since the threshold mechanism proposed here is reversible and not associated with the existence of multiple steady states. As this occurs in every model analyzed here and is independent of any specific parameterization, it is likely to be relevant in the real world.”

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #882 on: November 20, 2016, 06:53:05 AM »
Nice posts lately!

Below 26 Nov 16 hycom sea ice thickness is held fixed on the left while the right half steps through the previous 12 months but showing only every 4th day. Basically growth is fairly imperceptible in their color scheme until mid-January or so and doesn't really get cooking on the downside until May.

[snip]

Nice posts is right, go team 8) Oh and A-Team, for me your 12 month hycom animation is the most telling and chilling of them all.  It shockingly shows the results of so much endogenous and exogenous heat build up in the arctic.

When i look at how last freezing season weakly built upon itself and what was left of the pack at the end of melt, I cringe to think about what awaits our very much thinner & slower thickening ice pack.  Now would be a real good time for some forcings or negative feedbacks to slow down this train to poof land. 
« Last Edit: November 20, 2016, 07:02:51 AM by Ice Shieldz »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #883 on: November 20, 2016, 11:12:08 AM »
Obviously here wip did Arctic and Antarctic separately before doing the curious and unexpected combo so all three are out there for dissecting contributions to the anomaly. Something is thus wrong because NSIDC should be able to replicate the first two and so the third.

I have to agree with Meier that producing this combo could be a poor idea in general. It is the kind of thing used to confuse by the denier community. Also the poles are totally out of phase with summer insolation and winter radiation back to space.

I don't think it's such a curious or unexpected combo.  Various causally unconnected things can be reported on a global basis.  Eg. deforestation in Brazil is unrelated to deforestation in Indonesia, but a global figure is nonetheless useful.  It seems a rather obvious graphic to do in order to present a broader picture.  I think it's a great graphic and it has certainly raised awareness.  I've had friends who don't follow the cryosphere retweeting it.

The fact that the Antarctic and Arctic are currently each more than 1M km2 lower than the nearest previous low (let alone average) is very newsworthy and Wipneus' graphic is the perfect way to present it.  Next year may not appear as dramatic on the chart, but it won't erase that one big canary-in-the-coal-mine from this year's chart.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #884 on: November 20, 2016, 11:45:58 AM »
A chart created by Wipneus and posted on this forum is going viral.

See also this article in The Verge, in which Zack Labe is interviewed by his former roommate about the ensuing "Twitstorm":

A bleak-looking sea ice graph has Twitter in a frenzy

Apparently:

Quote
The graphs and their source data will surely be interrogated closely by scientists in days and weeks to come. If there’s anything to be gleaned from the current conversation, it’s that data representation of complex phenomenon can confuse and cause bickering even among people who really understand the principles. For the everyday observer, things are even harder, so the fact that these small bits of in-fighting and back-and-forth are happening in public (on Twitter) is really a service. You get to watch scientific debate unfold in real time, which not only gives you a better idea of what to believe but also lets you in on the questions that scientists and science reporters use to interrogate data all the time. A little bickering is a good thing.

Perhaps the paparazzi are at this very moment setting up camp outside the Arctische Pinguin's igloo? A wake up call for all concerned?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

jonthed

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #885 on: November 20, 2016, 11:49:56 AM »
Great posts indeed. Sorry to lower the quality but with the global temp anomaly chart going viral, I'm afraid people are going to draw the wrong conclusion from the fact that there is a heat anomaly and a cold anomaly. It could easily be dismissed as 'perhaps unusual, but it balances out'. What isn't clear to people unfamiliar with these charts and their values is that what we are seeing is an arctic spill over, due to the weakened and meandering jet. The cold anomaly over Siberia is because the cold arctic air mass is not contained at higher latitudes, and this (partly) explains the heat anomaly over the arctic. They are both explained as one by the idea that the arctic winter cooling (weaker this year anyway?) is being shared with Siberia as well: Arctic not cooling as much as usual, with Siberia stealing some of the intense Arctic cold.

This is my understanding at least, and this is what I'd wish was being communicated in these posts going viral. Not that it's a see-saw of random chance and 'just weather' that 'balances out', but that it's a single event showing that the arctic system is broken and entering new territory.

Perhaps these two gifs, side by side in a new gif, showing the arctic spilling over would clearly show what's going on:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/500z_30.rnl.anim.html
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/500z_30a.rnl.anim.html

The current values and events are so striking that, with the right gif, we could spread it all over facebook.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #886 on: November 20, 2016, 11:53:40 AM »
A chart created by Wipneus and posted on this forum is going viral.

See also this article in The Verge, in which Zack Labe is interviewed by his former roommate about the ensuing "Twitstorm":

A bleak-looking sea ice graph has Twitter in a frenzy

Apparently:

Quote
The graphs and their source data will surely be interrogated closely by scientists in days and weeks to come. If there’s anything to be gleaned from the current conversation, it’s that data representation of complex phenomenon can confuse and cause bickering even among people who really understand the principles. For the everyday observer, things are even harder, so the fact that these small bits of in-fighting and back-and-forth are happening in public (on Twitter) is really a service. You get to watch scientific debate unfold in real time, which not only gives you a better idea of what to believe but also lets you in on the questions that scientists and science reporters use to interrogate data all the time. A little bickering is a good thing.

Perhaps the paparazzi are at this very moment setting up camp outside the Arctische Pinguin's igloo? A wake up call for all concerned?

CNN has also picked up the story.

Quote
Amid higher global temperatures, sea ice at record lows at poles
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/18/world/sea-ice-arctic-antarctic-lows/index.html

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #887 on: November 20, 2016, 11:58:07 AM »
I have to agree with Meier that producing this combo could be a poor idea in general. It is the kind of thing used to confuse by the denier community.

It has indeed been "used to confuse by the denier community". For a recent example see:

Global Sea Ice “Comeback” Conspiracy

Does that mean we shouldn't mention that fact?  Here's the latest version:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #888 on: November 20, 2016, 02:45:31 PM »
Quote
we can't quite replicate blah blah blah
wipneus had it fully documented years ago every step of the way if you'd been paying attention.

It does not matter in the slightest for product quality whether wipneus is a homeless drug addict working under a bridge on a stolen handset or a distinguished physics professor at Amsterdam U using a personal supercomputer.

Quote
there's no ongoing melt, the Arctic Ocean is freezing over like it always does this time of year.
Spare us this rubbish, we can see for ourselves that Arctic ice edge is still melting on 19 Nov 2016 along the Atlantic facing side.

The master file, third file below, will need a click to animate as it is too wide for the forum, recommended. I don't play along with 'give us more documentation' or 'what are your credentials' games: anyone with entry-level photoshop skills can quickly replicate the results for themselves using open source software and freely available, stable, well-known government satellite portals. If they can't, maybe they shouldn't be writing about the Arctic. Willie Song had impeccable credentials.

What we are looking at here is waters warmed up at the equator coming up via the Gulf Stream, wrapping around Svalbard (and its precious seed storage facility), branching into the West Spitzbergen Current which follows the break in bathymetry east to Frans Josef and onward along Siberia and the Barents Current which crosses that shallow sea largely exiting on the east side of the St Anna Trough.

The air and water have both been way too hot this last week to form or sustain ice. Why? Wobbles in the jet stream, an epic storm, persistent poleward winds from mid-latitudes, warm moist air, stationary cold in central Siberia, heat-retaining clouds, residual ocean heat from the summer -- it's all intertwined.

The ice front today is sitting over 3000 m deep water, not where it belongs. This situation won't persist because the warm sub-surface barotropic currents are restricted to the shelf break by physical oceanographic considerations in this much-studied region. Gravity isn't just a theory.

The more interesting question is what fraction of the Barents Sea proper will freeze over and for how long this winter, other than the usual incursion into the Trough and along coastlines (where the salinity may be lower, freezing temperatures less restrictive, and adjacent land effects larger). 

Briefly, the same dates around the Bering Straits suggest the Alaskan Coastal Current and the shallow continental shelf of the Chukchi are keeping things warm whereas the ice otherwise is consolidating. Solid ice is shown as a lighter gray than land.

Hmmm, I wonder if this is really going to work out:

Quote
Why a Global Seed Vault in Svalbard?

Svalbard was chosen for several reasons. Its cold climate and permafrost make the area a perfect location for underground cold storage. The surrounding sandstone is stable for building and is low in radiation. In terms of security, Svalbard scores high marks compared to the locations of many other genebanks in the world. The infrastructure is good, with daily flights and a reliable source of energy from local coal supplies. The vault is located an extraordinary 120 metres (393.7 feet) into the rock, ensuring that the vault rooms will remain naturally frozen even in the event of ...

« Last Edit: November 20, 2016, 07:40:37 PM by A-Team »

Magma.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #889 on: November 20, 2016, 07:02:08 PM »
I have to agree with Meier that producing this combo could be a poor idea in general. It is the kind of thing used to confuse by the denier community.

It has indeed been "used to confuse by the denier community". For a recent example see:

Global Sea Ice “Comeback” Conspiracy

Does that mean we shouldn't mention that fact?  Here's the latest version:

The strength of this plot is that at a glance it shows to even the most casual observer just how anomalous the current situation is, with Arctic sea ice extent 1 million km2 below the previous record low for the date and Antarctic sea ice 1.5 million km2 below the previous record low for the date.

On other climate sites I've criticized IPCC writing for being so carefully hedged and jargon-laden that some key statements are difficult to understand even for a native speaker of English with a Ph.D. in geosciences... a casual reader without a background in the sciences would almost certainly be lost.

As Einstein was paraphrased, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." I think wipneus's plot clears that hurdle easily.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #890 on: November 20, 2016, 08:10:18 PM »
A-Team,

Your technical and software skills along with your knowledge of the Arctic adds considerably to our dialogue on the Forum. The graphics always create compelling arguments.

A4R

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #891 on: November 20, 2016, 08:15:21 PM »
Someone just posted a Wipneus Global Sea ice Area plot from the 15th complaining about how fake it obviously was and how desperate we must be to be putting out such. I posted the most recent image and where they could get the data to produce their own efforts. I also told them to do the same with JAXA numbers and see what that graph looked like. I think Wipneus has made a name for himself for one of the worse possible reasons!!!

Well done Wipneus! You are an inspiration!!!
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ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #892 on: November 20, 2016, 08:56:55 PM »
Accumulated FDDs - Delta from 1958-2002 Climo using DMI N80
(data thru Nov 19 2016) 

I should have added a second set of X-axis labels showing the absolute accumulation.  To date, Climo would be 1100 FDDs and 5450 FDDs for the entire season. 





magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #893 on: November 20, 2016, 09:04:07 PM »
sorry to intrerrupt the party a bit but:

this site: https://sunshinehours.net/category/antarctic-sea-ice/page/2/

is publishing global sea ice almost if not identical since years, at least for more than one year
and i have posted that link quite some time before wip posted his first.

i don't even like that site because it's slightly on the denier side but still fairness is always due
and you can verify by scrolling down t the end, there are those graphs for most of the days way back and the source is even the same if i understood that correctly.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #894 on: November 20, 2016, 09:10:44 PM »
here is the link from the post and the link i mentioned above

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg91437.html#msg91437

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #895 on: November 20, 2016, 09:20:04 PM »
Thanks ktonine.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #896 on: November 20, 2016, 09:31:09 PM »
another interesting observation shows that after kimmirut bay was frozen for a few days it re-opened desite still quite low temps, perhaps a high tide made warmer waters to flow in?

no clue to be honest but interesting nevertheless because before i've not seen that there, once frozen, stayed frozen solid till late spring.

https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1198520951-Kimmirut#action-play-month

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #897 on: November 20, 2016, 09:42:44 PM »
It does not matter in the slightest for product quality whether wipneus is a homeless drug addict working under a bridge on a stolen handset or a distinguished physics professor at Amsterdam U using a personal supercomputer.
Well put. Crowdsourcing secondary research is a beautiful idea, because of its scalability. Science is ferociously good at filtering in the most useful outcomes.

6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #898 on: November 20, 2016, 09:45:38 PM »
i don't even like that site because it's slightly on the denier side
That's presumably why it published a combined index in the past, when that data obfuscated arctic sea ice losses. We should expect to see a sudden disinterest in such indices now in that community.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #899 on: November 20, 2016, 10:46:49 PM »
I am eagerly listening. What are the mechanics of a 10-year cycle of arctic sea ice in your opinion? So far I have just heard empty words, nothing with substance.

I dropped in as logged out, just to see what was being said because Chartic just dropped negative.  When Chartic finishes, at the end of this year, I'm pretty sure you will see a late year (Nov-Dec), step out stall, just like the other two years I posted.

Thought I'd answer this.

I know I was a bit cryptic but I was feeling sarcastic and I try not to go all flame war as it just turns everyone off and that is not the point of this site...

Simply put, there is One and only One, relevant, heat source for this planet when it comes to Global Warming.  That is Solar.

The solar cycle is roughly 10 years from peak to trough and back again.

There are all sorts of other cycles and feedbacks going on including the 30 year sequestration and release of heat in the Oceans.

However, over and above all those cycles, I would find it totally incredible if the waxing and waning of our suns output did NOT impose some verifiable traits on the melting and freezing seasons. After all it is the only relevant input.  Without it we'd be a ball of ice.

Granted the fluctuation is not that much but, as we know, maunder minimums and Dalton Minimums have appreciable impact on the climate.

In a system with ever escalating greenhouse impact why would we not see that impact reflected ever more strongly as we go through each cycle with more heat and higher CO2??

That's pretty much what I was saying and, love it or hate it, it was me who was saying (in late April), against all expectations, that I was looking for a stall.  It was also me that was saying, in late June, that I was looking for the stall to stop some time in July and turn into a lot of melt in August.

Again it was me, Just a few days ago, suggesting with graphs that there should be a stall now leading to a visible curve in the graph, just like the other two but worse.  Now we have the drop on Chartic.  Will it give me the curve I'm looking for?  Who knows.  But if it doesn't then, hey, I was dreaming and I'll update my view on reality.

If it does?  Well then I'll be looking at 2017 with very close scrutiny in comparison to what 2007 did.
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