Might textual analysis may be an easier way to monitor developments than to trawl through cryosphere journals or all these forums?
The rise of hits for 2016 in a google search on “Arctic AND unprecedented” reveals a striking yet extreme pattern: a hockey stick. Here, for mid-latitude and equatorial controls, “Kansas AND unprecedented” and “Ecuador AND unprecedented” were used as controls (data not shown).
Not all hockey sticks are the same. The main difference is the ‘lie' of the stick which refers to the angle between shaft and blade. A lie value of 5 corresponds to a 135° angle and so forth, the NHL not using the metric system here -- a lie of 5 is 3pi/4 radians in the Système international d’Unités SI adopted by Montréal).
The graph below shows that the ‘lie’ of “Arctic AND unprecedented” is considerably steeper than pre-industrial hockey sticks made by the Mi'kmaq people of Nova Scotia, the hockey stick of Wayne Gretzky (1.83 m, played crouched), the celebrated air temperature graph of M Mann 1999 showing an impossibly high lie angle of 106º in the original, and the preferred emission scenario of IPCC-2007.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/Millennium/mbh99.pdfThe first few dozen from the many thousands of results for “Arctic AND unprecedented” just at Google Scholar are shown below in chronological order; not included are hundreds of matches within forum posts. It's astonishing how many different topics come up beyond what we consider here.
Preparing for the
unprecedented Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas
* Arctic Amplification and the Northward shift of a new Greenland melting record An
unprecedented sustained jet stream easterly flow promoted enhanced runoff
* Late Holocene stable-isotope based winter temperature records from ice wedges in the Northeast Siberian Arctic The Arctic is currently undergoing an
unprecedented warming.
* Arctic Browning: vegetation damage and implications for carbon balance major and
unprecedented vegetation damage reported at landscape scales
* Evaluating underwater ambient noise levels across a changing Arctic environment As a result of climate change, the Arctic underwater acoustic environment is undergoing an
unprecedented transformation of its ambient noise sources, including an expanded wind fetch over open water
* Beluga whale distribution, migration, and behavior in a changing Pacific Arctic Sea ice is disappearing at
unprecedented rates in the Pacific Arctic with potential impacts to ice-associated marine predators
* Spatial genetic structure of Long-tailed Ducks (Clangula hyemalis) Arctic ecosystems are changing at an
unprecedented rate
* Implementing high-latitude biogeochemical processes into Earth System Models Projections of future climate changes suggest that air temperatures in the Arctic could rise to the levels
unprecedented in the last million years.
* Total ozone loss during the 2015/16 Arctic winter and comparison to previous years as shown by the
unprecedented column depletion ozone loss and re-noxification in the Arctic during the winter 2015/16 compared to that
* Episodic warming of near-bottom waters under the Arctic sea ice on the central Laptev Sea shelf: warming was not observed on the deeper shelf until year-round under-ice easurements recorded
unprecedented warm near-bottom waters of +0.6°C in winter 2012/2013, just after the Arctic sea ice extent featured a record minimum.
* Twenty-two years of Arctic ozone depletion observations and simulations. However, as shown by the
unprecedented depletion of 39% in 2010/11, the loss does not depend on the vortex spring duration
* Plant nutrient acquisition strategies in tundra species: at which soil depth do species take up their nitrogen? The Arctic is warming at
unprecedented rates. Increased thawing of permafrost releases nutrients locked up in the previously frozen soils layers,
* A database for depicting Arctic sea ice variations back to 1850 Bering Sea rate of retreat since the 1990s is
unprecedented in the historical record for the pan-Arctic total ice cover
* With the retreat of polar ice, increasing navigability of the Northwest Passage and the growing global interest in Arctic resources, Canada faces
unprecedented opportunities
* Body shrinkage due to Arctic warming reduces red knot fitness in tropical wintering range Especially in the Arctic, warming has been observed at
unprecedented rates. Hence, body-size reductions would be expected to be most pronounced
* Toward strategic, coherent, policy-relevant arctic science Although the White House has grasped the urgency of scientific responses to the
unprecedented change gripping the Arctic
* Canadian Arctic Archipelago Conspecifics Flower Earlier in the High Arctic than the Mid-Arctic The Canadian Arctic Archipelago is experiencing
unprecedented climate change The rapidly rising temperatures will likely impact plant phenology dramatically.
* Regional Characteristics of Global Warming: Linear Projection for the Timing of
unprecedented Climate For the ocean, an
unprecedented climate would come within 200 years over the Indian Ocean, the middle latitudes of the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic,
* North America's Iconic Marine Species at Risk Due To
unprecedented Ocean Warming The copepod species Calanus finmarchicus is the right whale's primary source of nutrition,
* High resolution Holocene sea ice records from Herald Canyon, Chukchi Sea it is still uncertain whether the shift from perennial to seasonal ice cover expected for the near future was
unprecedented during the current interglacial.
* Stability of fine-grained sediments subject to gas hydrate dissociation in the Arctic continental margin methane gas venting is related to the dissociation of methane gas hydrate induced by the
unprecedented Arctic warming
* Bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls and hexachlorobenzene by three Arctic benthic species The Arctic region is undergoing an
unprecedented change, with global rising changes to eg seasonal weather patterns and even ecosystems
* A critical review of hydrocarbon exploitation and shipping governance measures for oil pollution prevention and preparedness in the Arctic The Arctic currently faces
unprecedented pressures from increased shipping with associated increased risks of oil pollution
* The biogeography of red snow microbiomes and their role in melting arctic glaciers The Arctic is melting at an
unprecedented rate and key drivers are changes in snow and ice albedo. Here we show that red snow plays a crucial role in decreasing albedo.
* Arctic research cooperation. IASC after 25 years. Arguably, with the rapid change unfolding today throughout the Arctic and the global implications of largely
unprecedented physical and ecological transformations in the region
* Arctic governance paradigm and the role of China With
unprecedented climate-driven loss of sea ice over last 35 years and growing international trade supported by the rise of Asian economics, Arctic shipping shows more promise of being navigable.
* International environmental cooperation in the Arctic International cooperation in the field of environmental safety,
unprecedented speed and energy cooperation in the Arctic can serve as a lesson for humanity.
*
unprecedented decrease in deposition of nitrogen oxides over North America linked to recent warming of the Arctic and have caused an alteration of prevailing seasonal wind directions
* Mass losses from Svalbard land-terminating glaciers by the end of the 21st century under an RCP 8.5 scenario suggest that the archipelago will experience an
unprecedented for the Arctic- glacier recession over the 21st century.
* Arctic marine phytobenthos of northern Baffin Island ..
unprecedented for the last 1450 years The disappearance of Arctic
* The Arctic Continental Shelf and Its Evolving Morphologic Context has allowed the Arctic coastal States to collect an
unprecedented amount of new mapping data in the Arctic
* Arctic climate change: Greenhouse warming unleashed Anthropogenic carbon release rate
unprecedented during the past 66 million years.
