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Author Topic: The 2016/2017 freezing season  (Read 898943 times)

ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1000 on: November 24, 2016, 05:23:01 PM »
Both the "DMI" and "HYCOM" charts above are actually derived from different implementations of the HYCOM-CICE model (run by the DMI and the US Navy respectively) so I suspect any major differences are down to the shading on the scale.

If CryoSat's observations are wrong (and note the observation lag) then ESA has wasted hundreds of millions of euros.

Picking and choosing data based on your preconceptions will take you down a dark road.

Preconceptions??  Since when are basic thermodynamics preconceptions?

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1001 on: November 24, 2016, 05:32:16 PM »
CryoSat doesn't look that far off to me personally as DMI did. I can't see how any of us were cherry picking. When different models show differing results, you have to decide which to trust the most, while none are perfect. How to decide which model has interpreted the data best? Sound math mixed with common sense makes sense.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1002 on: November 24, 2016, 06:44:38 PM »
Here's thickness from yet another HYCOM+CICE implementation:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/

Does this one look any more believable? Note the disclaimer:

Quote
This 1/12° Global HYCOM+CICE system and web page are a demonstration and are not an operational product.

A CICE modeller once told me that "the CICE model is much more sensitive to forcing data than to internal model parameters". Perhaps that's got something to do with the apparently wildly different results?

DMI = ECMWF forcing
ACNFS = NAVGEM 1.3 forcing
GOFS = NAVGEM 1.3 forcing plus assimilated concentration

To be frank I find it hard to believe any of them, given the differing outputs.


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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1003 on: November 24, 2016, 06:58:01 PM »
Quote
then ESA has wasted hundreds of millions of euros on Cryosat
It wouldn't be the first time. It's quite common too for no one ever to look at more than a tiny fraction of the downloaded imagery (eg Landsat-8) or for a whole instrument to be abandoned after the PI loses interest (eg AIRS on Aqua) even though it stays on the job.
Quote
Barents stands a very real possibility of being nearly ice free entering next years melt season.
That's correct, though it's been trending that way for years. The sea surface is sandwiched between Atlantic Water and mid-latitude air which both are too warm.

Here is an update on the Chukchi.  It is a double cut-out of AMSR2 open water exposing Hycom's ice thickness including six days of forward prediction and nullschool's RTG-SSTA NCEF sea surface temperature anomaly with a triple spreadsheet overlays of  open water area, predicted open water area, water temperature and current velocity/direction.

Other than Hycom, layers beyond 23 Nov 2016 are stationary as no one else is making forward predictions of these parameters (stubbing in air temperature would work but the switch from water to air is potentially confusing). I may do that in a bit anyway.

Land could be replaced with the shaded relief DEM from the fabulous new bathymetry map but there I could not find a good online snow depth overlay; land albedo would be more to the point but only makes sense later in the solar season. It is also better to drape colors over parameters presented as grayscale heights viewed in interactive perspective which is supported in html-5 but not by the forum. Raster GIS is transparent, it is easy to make these seemingly complex animations. It is run at two speeds bewlo.

I don't know how that black swan got in the picture, it was not expected until 2040 at the very earliest.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2016, 07:31:35 PM by A-Team »

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1004 on: November 24, 2016, 06:58:48 PM »
All that the average thickness chart is showing is that the record low volume is only slightly less of a record low than the record low sea ice extent.  So the 'average' volume over area is within other previous averages.

really, kind of a meaningless metric if you ask me.

----------
This drastically reduces, perhaps even eliminates the the need for imported heat from lower latitudes required to disrupt Arctic weather.
---------

I think you must consider that the amount of enthalpy intrusion into the arctic from atmosphere circulations is 500% more than that from ocean circulations on any given year (this is an estimate - it may be slightly more or less but certainly much more than ocean currents).
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1005 on: November 24, 2016, 11:20:45 PM »
Quote
Yet there are places on the thickness maps that show new ice already between 1.5 and 3m.  Very, very unlikely.

Maybe compaction can do that?

If I remember correctly from prior posts, these models have a larger margin of error when dealing with thin ice.

Compaction would affect extent, but not thickness.  It would take ridging to increase thickness, but that would not affect average thickness much.  Where that is likely to happen are in the "ice factories" - but that isn't what we see in the thickness maps. 

The thickness growth models are empirical models based on basic thermodynamics combined with observations.  I don't know if they are biased on any particular thickness.  There are various formulas and they imply fairly large uncertainties - but not on the order of what's implied by the thickness maps versus thermodynamics. I.e., regardless which formula you choose (Lebedev, Berillo, etc), 600 FDDs is not going to create anywhere near 1.5m of new ice.

Ridges iirc may represent (or may have represented at some point in the past decades) more than a third of the total arctic ice volume. Judging from the pics of the Healy last summer i would not find it that surprising. And ridging can happen when the ice gets compacted enough,
 or at least compressed in one direction.

Wikipedia cites "ice in the ocean" Wadhams book (2000) to state 40% of ice in form of ridges. Other refs go as high as two thirds. I guess it depends of the time of the year too ;)
« Last Edit: November 24, 2016, 11:29:57 PM by seaicesailor »

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1006 on: November 24, 2016, 11:30:15 PM »
Both the "DMI" and "HYCOM" charts above are actually derived from different implementations of the HYCOM-CICE model (run by the DMI and the US Navy respectively) so I suspect any major differences are down to the shading on the scale.

If CryoSat's observations are wrong (and note the observation lag) then ESA has wasted hundreds of millions of euros.

Picking and choosing data based on your preconceptions will take you down a dark road.
I'll demure here, nick; DMI's thickness model  (large expanses 2M+ thick new ice less than 1 month old at these temperatures?!?) makes utterly no sense.  It's not Cryosat's observations, its their model and interpretation of Cryosat's data.  They Navy appears to have a better model; at least it makes more sense from the standpoint of heat exchange.
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John_The_Elder

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1007 on: November 25, 2016, 02:45:17 AM »
John

ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1008 on: November 25, 2016, 04:21:41 AM »

Ridges iirc may represent (or may have represented at some point in the past decades) more than a third of the total arctic ice volume. Judging from the pics of the Healy last summer i would not find it that surprising. And ridging can happen when the ice gets compacted enough,
 or at least compressed in one direction.


Ridging is one piece of ice running into or slabbing on top of another piece of ice.  This creates thicker ice, but necessitates a decrease in area and extent.  As I said, in areas where "ice factories"  are constantly generating new ice this could lead to ice thicker than implied by basic thermodynamics.  That's *not* what we see on the current DMI or Cryosat thickness maps.

I.e., take two 1 km^2 pieces of ice.  Run them into each other and have one completely overlap the other.  Thickness doubles, but area and extent are cut in half.  There's no change in volume.  Now, since thin ice grows faster, if the newly vacated area is quickly replaced by new thin ice, overall volume can grow quicker than by simple thermodynamics.  But, again, that's not process in play right now over most of the arctic.


oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1009 on: November 25, 2016, 07:52:42 AM »
Both the "DMI" and "HYCOM" charts above are actually derived from different implementations of the HYCOM-CICE model (run by the DMI and the US Navy respectively) so I suspect any major differences are down to the shading on the scale.

If CryoSat's observations are wrong (and note the observation lag) then ESA has wasted hundreds of millions of euros.

Picking and choosing data based on your preconceptions will take you down a dark road.
I'll demure here, nick; DMI's thickness model  (large expanses 2M+ thick new ice less than 1 month old at these temperatures?!?) makes utterly no sense.  It's not Cryosat's observations, its their model and interpretation of Cryosat's data.  They Navy appears to have a better model; at least it makes more sense from the standpoint of heat exchange.
I recall that DMI has been shown to be almost-garbage on multiple occasions. Its charts are constantly in contradiction of other data. The rest are mostly okay though they have their differences.

nukefix

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1010 on: November 25, 2016, 11:35:09 AM »
If CryoSat's observations are wrong (and note the observation lag) then ESA has wasted hundreds of millions of euros.
Even if they were "wrong" over sea ice (and they aren't), CryoSat is still totally invaluable for making ice sheet observations.

andy_t_roo

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1011 on: November 25, 2016, 12:52:46 PM »
one thing to keep in mind is that ice is an insulator, so the first meter or 2 is by a huge margin the easiest to grow;
growth becomes an exponentially declining value, so if instead of -20c it sits at -10c all winter, the thickness will be more similar than you might think (ie, halving the temperature difference from freezing, will mean it will probably be missing the thickness of ice that would reduce heat flow by 50%.

(some more relevent numbers -- https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/thermodynamic_growth.html suggests that one such emperical formula is Thickness (cm) = 1.33 * FDD (°C)0.58; )

estimating climatology as ~2000 fdd by this time we get ~110cm
we are missing ~600 fdd, so 1400 fdd gets us ~88cm. I'd expect this ~20cm deficiency to either persist (if temps remain warmer than normal), or begin to decrease if temps return to mean as the lesser ice insulation allows slightly faster than normal growth in the latter part of the season.

(all the numbers are ~ because estimating fdd over ice that has just frozen up is wonky, the formula is emperical, weather is unpredictable, and we don't know if the broken up initial state and current humidity invalidates prior estimates of energy flow)

<last paragraph of speculation on how this means it might look like the ice recovered edited out, as i don't feel that speculation without reasonable evidence to back it up adds to the quality of this forum; i'd like to thank everyone who has contributed to the informed discussion around here>

Cate

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1012 on: November 25, 2016, 01:14:19 PM »
"Seven surprising results of the reduction of Arctic sea ice" is a TED talk by Dr David Barber at the U of Manitoba. Dated Nov 2014 but still  timely, the talk includes comments on rotten ice and how it fools satellites into thinking rotten is solid; also remarks on the effect of snow accumulation of sea ice. It's for a general audience so nothing "surprising" for most folks here!! but I couldn't find it elsewhere on the forum and thought to reference it for the record as a concise collection of points---Dr Barber does have a lot of hands-on experience with Arctic ice and is a very effective communicator.


NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1013 on: November 25, 2016, 01:42:39 PM »
<last paragraph of speculation on how this means it might look like the ice recovered edited out, as i don't feel that speculation without reasonable evidence to back it up adds to the quality of this forum; i'd like to thank everyone who has contributed to the informed discussion around here>

Andy you might not want to be so hard and fast about that.  See Cate's response immediately below yours.  Until Dr Barber went out in an icebreaker and checked, it was taken as given that when the satellites reported 5yr MYI, then it was fully formed and full strength 5M thick MYI.

That illusion shattered when his icebreaker, certified for 1M ice thickness, was passing through an area of high thickness MYI (as reported by the satellites), at near full speed.

Funding for studies on the ice is limited and the area is huge.  Studies tend to get funding for studying things they can prove or things they can deduce as probable.  Even then the study funding and time to monitor is not exhaustive.  Witness the paper I linked to a while ago in the melting season about the impact of moisture on the weather immediately over the ice in the presence of extensive leads.  The study focussed on July August because that is where it is expected they would find the largest number of leads to study the impact.  Yet we  know from other work that the impact of this weather may have an even larger impact in the early melt season.  Yet nobody is looking and won't look until there is a "speculation" that it needs to be studied.

I would have said that due to the huge environment, the pace of change and the limited funding available; that "informed" speculation was more the order of the day than not.

Just my twopenneth worth on how I see it working most of the time.
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Cate

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1014 on: November 25, 2016, 02:38:57 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/warmer-arctic-ocean-temperatures-delay-sea-ice-1.3865025

Nov 24, field notes on the freezing season from Canada's north: 

A spike in Arctic temperatures has slowed sea ice from forming on the Arctic coast, making hunting more difficult, and dangerous for Inuit...
Moses Koonoo in Arctic Bay, Nunavut, was out hunting for seal and fishing for char this week. He says the sea ice was so thin he had to stay near the coast with his snowmobile, being careful not to break through.
"The sea ice condition was not too great because in some places it was wet."
He says the ice was about 8 cm thick when this time of year it's normally closer to 30 cm.
"The air seems to be cold, but the sea water must be warmer temperature," he said.
"It's causing it to delay the forming of the ice."....
As for the impact on Koonoo's hunting trip, he spotted many seals but he couldn't reach most of them as the ice was too thin.




6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1015 on: November 25, 2016, 02:40:43 PM »
If CryoSat's observations are wrong (and note the observation lag) then ESA has wasted hundreds of millions of euros.
Even if they were "wrong" over sea ice (and they aren't), CryoSat is still totally invaluable for making ice sheet observations.
Also, the argument that they are right because of the cost of them being wrong is an appeal to authority. The likelihood and severity of risks are unrelated quantities.

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1016 on: November 25, 2016, 05:36:55 PM »
An interesting paper that may have some relevance here:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract


(If anybody has access to a copy, that'd be fantastic).
Easier reading here:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.sci-hub.bz/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/full

Free copy is available via researchgate.net

Excellent. Thanks a lot. It's interesting to note that their experiment (which attempts to tease out ONLY the effects of a reduction in sea ice) initially suggests that partial retreat of ice in the areas it is currently occurring results in enhanced disruption of the stratospheric vortex, but as the thinning and retreat continues unabated, this mechanism eventually weakens and causes the tropospheric processes to decouple from the stratosphere. In addition, the atmospheric heat transport feedback becomes quite strong in their model, suggesting that the "real life" equivalent could be even stronger, since background warming via greenhouse gasses does not factor into their model runs.

Quote
The results indicated that the anomalous meridional circulation, induced by the Arctic sea ice reduction, transported heat into the Arctic, in addition to the turbulent heat flux due to sea ice changes. This dynamic positive feedback could work independently of the stratospheric process, intensifying the Arctic amplification.

TerryM

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1017 on: November 25, 2016, 08:49:29 PM »

I don't know how that black swan got in the picture, it was not expected until 2040 at the very earliest.


It appears to these old eyes to be a stork, possibly ushering in a new age of climatic chaos. 8)


Terry

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1018 on: November 26, 2016, 01:34:18 AM »

I don't know how that black swan got in the picture, it was not expected until 2040 at the very earliest.


It appears to these old eyes to be a stork, possibly ushering in a new age of climatic chaos. 8)

Black Swan Theory developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
1.The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology. and meteorology?
2.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
3.The psychological biases which blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.


Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1019 on: November 26, 2016, 06:31:24 AM »
I recall in the early stages of refreeze it was stated several times that fast freezing of the Arctic and rapid growth of ice extent would trap heat beneath the ice and prevent it from escaping into the atmosphere. Based on that, one could interpret the current state of Arctic ice as being ideal because it is maximizing the venting of heat from the ocean by not being covered by as much ice. The cyclone that pushed ice to one side and caused it to pile up was also a good thing. It created thicker ice in some locations and permitted continued venting of excess heat in the enlarged open water regions. The strange fluctuations in air temperature could be from said heat being vented at a more rapid pace than usual. It is possible that things will return to normal and we shall see rapid refreezing of the remaining open water. Maybe only a matter of time. Despite all of the fluctuations and delays in refreezing, and the cyclone that pushed ice to one side, there has still been nearly 2.5 million km2 of new ice extent created the past month (Oct 22-Nov 22) according to NSIDC and nearly 5 million km2 since the low extent. I remember many speaking of the easy ice being melted; perhaps we shall soon see the "easy ice" forming in regions that will be below freezing for the next 5 months but are still open water and do not currently count toward ice extent. Notice that almost none of the Hudson Bay has frozen and much of the Canadian archipelago remains unfrozen. They likely cannot remain this way. Add to that Beaufort sea, and there will be plenty of ice to set up your ice fishing huts.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1020 on: November 26, 2016, 06:45:45 AM »
I myself (and I think many others) have come to the conclusion that the warmer waters on the Atlantic side are being replenished constantly. The Gulf Stream as many in the U.S. call it takes the warm water so far into the Arctic, and then there are other currents that pick some of it up and carry it further.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1021 on: November 26, 2016, 06:49:29 AM »
Pertinent article to this year in the Arctic.
Excerpt:
[Several factors have caused the Arctic to overheat since late October, say scientists.
The most immediate are warm winds sweeping up from western Europe and off the west coast of Africa.
"The winds carrying this heat is a temporary—and fairly unprecedented—weather phenomenon," said Valerie Masson Delmotte, a scientist at the Climate and Environment Sciences Laboratory in Paris.]

http://phys.org/news/2016-11-overheated-arctic-climate-vicious-circle.html

6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1022 on: November 26, 2016, 07:40:04 AM »

I don't know how that black swan got in the picture, it was not expected until 2040 at the very earliest.


It appears to these old eyes to be a stork, possibly ushering in a new age of climatic chaos. 8)

Black Swan Theory developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
1.The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology. and meteorology?
2.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
3.The psychological biases which blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
Although it doesn't seem that the decline of the Arctic sea ice is itself a black swan in Taleb's theory, since the existence of black swans is unpredictable, whereas the sea ice decline is widely predicted, and indeed considered to be a certainty everywhere except the denier blogosphere and conservative politics. I don't think a phase change in a complex system qualifies as a black swan event, even though the timing of such events is also unpredictable.

What the loss the of the Arctic ice could be is a *factory* for black swans.

etienne

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1023 on: November 26, 2016, 07:54:29 AM »
Hello,

In the Wikipedia page on the black swan,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
there is an important comment :
"what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher"

From what I understood, the black swan therory has nothing to do with physics, but with the way humans interpret evens they were not able to predict. The Sandy storm was a black swan for many, but propably not for meteorologists.

Best regards,

Etienne 

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1024 on: November 26, 2016, 09:04:05 AM »
one could interpret the current state of Arctic ice as being ideal because it is maximizing the venting of heat from the ocean by not being covered by as much ice. The cyclone that pushed ice to one side and caused it to pile up was also a good thing. It created thicker ice in some locations
2.5 million km2 of new ice extent created the past month and nearly 5 million km2 since the low extent.
perhaps we shall soon see the "easy ice" forming in regions that will be below freezing for the next 5 months but are still open water and do not currently count toward ice extent.
Indeed the cyclone may have helped with ridging the ice and making it thicker. On the other hand, the area that opened up may have slightly thinner ice when freezing season is finished. The heat vented might be replenished by the Atlantic currents, that's hard to estimate.
As you have a tendency of stating the obvious regarding ice growth since minimum, please remember that when looking at seasonal parameters you have to look at the differences from past seasonality in order to find if there is abnormal behavior. As this year is in record low extent by a large margin, you bet that something is highly abnormal. And yes, extent will grow by another ~4 million until maximum, it doesn't mean all is well. The ice forming by March will (most likely) be thinner and more salty and mechanically weak due to a shorter freezing season, and therefore easier to melt earlier.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1025 on: November 26, 2016, 09:45:21 AM »
To the fool with no understanding of the physical world or a firm grasp on historical contexts, all events are black swans.
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6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1026 on: November 26, 2016, 01:15:20 PM »
To the fool with no understanding of the physical world or a firm grasp on historical contexts, all events are black swans.
In a limited sense that's true. Taleb posits three defining characteristics of a black swan event: • After the occurrence of the event, explanations are formulated making it predictable or expectable. • The event has extreme impact. • The event is unexpected or not probable. We might call events that are simply unexpected weak black swans. But we flap far from the sea ice!

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1027 on: November 26, 2016, 02:29:36 PM »
NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center:
Quote
This video of the Himawari-8 Geocolor and air mass RGB imagery shows the development of a rapidly intensifying low pressure system in the N Pacific Ocean.  It is currently forecast to develop hurricane force winds within the next 24 hours while moving through the Bering Sea.

As a reminder, an extratropical/post-tropical low pressure system is classified as "hurricane force" when the winds are greater than or equal to 64 knots.  In addition, a system is considered to be "rapidly intensifying" when the central pressure of the low decreases by at least 24 hectopascals (hPa) or millibars (mb) over a consecutive 24 hour period.

This video contains no speech or other audio information necessary for the comprehension of the content. It is best viewed in HD. The resolution can be changed by clicking on the gear wheel in the bottom of the video screen.  It can also be viewed on the OPC's YouTube Channel at the following link:



The imagery in this video is courtesy of the GOES-R Proving Ground.
https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/videos/1214675275257868/
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ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1028 on: November 26, 2016, 03:24:36 PM »
FDDs N80 thru Nov 25, 2016

Climatology: 1240 FDDs
2016: 582
Anomaly: -658



Implied new ice thickness:
Lebedev 0.65m
Berillo  0.53m

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1029 on: November 26, 2016, 03:45:01 PM »
Cate mentioned the must-see D Barber video which has a must-see J Thomson counterpart that JHunt and timA have featured repeatedly over in the waves forum, sudden and unexpected destruction of newly formed pancake ice (new to the Arctic) in the Beaufort due to a 5 m wave event newly possible with long wind fetches on 12 Oct 2015. The slides below are just some screenshots from that youtube (which has a good voice-over and links).

videos from deck of R/V Sikuliaq

The paper describing that event just appeared, but first ask yourself, how would you even want these scenes scored for area, extent, slush, brine content, freeboard, mechanical strength, surface temperature, thickness, volume and so forth?

And how ARE they currently being scored on products so often analyzed here?

The question is, do either SMOS thin ice thickness (newly covered by JuanG over at Piomas) or high resolution AMSR2 sea ice concentration show pancake ice now or the Oct 15 storm event? Since pancake ice is unprecedented in the Arctic (though the rule in the Antarctic annual sea ice), this could give us a far more nuanced view of what is happening in what scientists are calling the 'New Arctic'. If more of the marginal ice zone were actually detectable, that is.

Note U Bremen scientists themselves point out the many sources of inaccuracy in their SMOS product, especially for the very thinnest ice. http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/439/2014/tc-8-439-2014.pdf

Dissipation of wind waves by pancake and frazil ice in the autumn Beaufort Sea
WE Rogers Jim Thomson, HH Shen, MJ Doble4, P Wadhams S Cheng
doi:10.1002/2016JC012251, 2016

"Frazil ice is composed of needle-shaped ice crystals and aggregates in slurries near the water surface. Thinner slurries tend to be a dark color, often the same color as the open water, or slightly lighter, but with a much smoother appearance due to absence of capillary waves; this is known as ‘‘grease ice.’’ Under calm conditions this thin layer will tend to freeze into new sheet ice (nilas).

Under weak-to-moderate wave action, it instead aggregates into rounded miniature floes known as pancakes, with shape and size controlled by accumulation, bending, and collisions under the wave action. Under stronger wave action,the outer edges become raised from these collisions, often with a lighter, frosted appearance."

Thomson’s group attributed the overnight melt of a seemingly endless expanse of pancake ice to a warm layer 20 m down that got stirred up by waves.This warm layer did not arise from Bering Sea influx nor Atlantic Water circulation but instead forms during the summer, dissipating in the fall.This water mass is termed the ‘near surface temperature maximum’ or NSTM. That was first studied in a series of papers by JM Jackson and colleagues:

Winter sea-ice melt in the Canada Basin, Arctic Ocean
JM Jackson Feb 2012

Recent warming and freshening of the Canada Basin has led to the year-round storage of solar radiation as the near-surface temperature maximum (NSTM). Using year-round ocean (from ice tethered profilers and autonomous ocean flux buoys), sea-ice (from ice mass balance buoys), and atmosphere (from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) data from 2005-2010, we find that heat from the NSTM is entrained into the surface mixed layer during winter.

Entrainment can only occur when the base of the SML reaches the top of the NSTM. If this condition is met, the surface forcing and stratification together determine whether the SML deepens into the NSTM. Heat transfer occurs by diffusion or by the erosion of the summer halocline. The average temperature of the SML warms by as much as 0.06°C during storm events. Solar radiation began warming the SML about 1 month early during the winter of 2007-2008 and this can be explained by thin sea ice.

Identification, characterization, and change of the near‐surface temperature maximum in the Canada Basin, 1993–2008
JM Jackson May 2010

Sea ice in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean has decreased significantly in recent years, and this will likely change the properties of the surface waters. A near‐surface temperature maximum (NSTM) at typical depths of 25–35 m has been previously described; however, its formation mechanisms, seasonal evolution, and interannual variability have not been established.

Based on summertime conductivity, temperature, and depth surveys and year‐round Ice‐Tethered Profiler data from 2005 to 2008, we found that the NSTM forms when sufficient solar radiation warms the upper ocean. A seasonal halocline forms in summer once enough sea ice melt has accumulated to separate the surface mixed layer from the NSTM.

The NSTM becomes trapped below the summer halocline, thereby storing heat from solar radiation. This heat can be stored year‐round in the Canada Basin if the halocline is strong enough to persist through winter. In addition, energy from storm‐driven mixing can weaken the summer halocline and entrain the NSTM, thereby melting sea ice in winter. Throughout this cycle, Ekman pumping within the convergent Beaufort Gyre acts to deepen the NSTM.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2016, 03:53:58 PM by A-Team »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1030 on: November 26, 2016, 04:37:43 PM »
The extremely early break up of Beaufort sea ice last spring allowed the water to accumulate far more heat than normal in May when the days are very long and the sun is high in the sky. That heat melted enormous amounts of multi-year ice that was advected into the Beaufort sea in midsummer. Therefore, we can expect that there is a thick freshwater layer above a thick warm summer maximum layer at this time in the Beaufort. If there is another strong high & Eckman pumping event next spring we can expect another early break up. Heat stored in the Canada basin from last has not likely radiated to space because the cool fresh water layer covered it.

Great comment A-Team...

Meanwhile, on the Atlantic side warm water is advecting in from the Norwegian current. This water is warm to greater than 300m depth. The recent warm storms have blown up over this deep warm water. I have attached images of SSTs for 26Nov for 2012 and 2016. There was a strong recovery after the record melt year of 2012 but this year there is much warmer water in the Barents and Kara seas. Moreover, the PDO pattern has shifted in the Pacific. Note that the N Pacific is very cold on the Asian side and very warm along the shores of Alaska.

Based on the SST patterns and the weather patterns this fall I would not expect to see a sea ice recovery this winter similar to 2012-2013.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1031 on: November 26, 2016, 04:45:36 PM »
I recall in the early stages of refreeze it was stated several times that fast freezing of the Arctic and rapid growth of ice extent would trap heat beneath the ice and prevent it from escaping into the atmosphere. Based on that, one could interpret the current state of Arctic ice as being ideal because it is maximizing the venting of heat from the ocean by not being covered by as much ice. The cyclone that pushed ice to one side and caused it to pile up was also a good thing. It created thicker ice in some locations and permitted continued venting of excess heat in the enlarged open water regions. The strange fluctuations in air temperature could be from said heat being vented at a more rapid pace than usual. It is possible that things will return to normal and we shall see rapid refreezing of the remaining open water. Maybe only a matter of time. Despite all of the fluctuations and delays in refreezing, and the cyclone that pushed ice to one side, there has still been nearly 2.5 million km2 of new ice extent created the past month (Oct 22-Nov 22) according to NSIDC and nearly 5 million km2 since the low extent. I remember many speaking of the easy ice being melted; perhaps we shall soon see the "easy ice" forming in regions that will be below freezing for the next 5 months but are still open water and do not currently count toward ice extent. Notice that almost none of the Hudson Bay has frozen and much of the Canadian archipelago remains unfrozen. They likely cannot remain this way. Add to that Beaufort sea, and there will be plenty of ice to set up your ice fishing huts.

that is only true as long there is sufficient cold and as long as the remaining time to build ice is long enough. if a water body freezes only in february not in december because it's not cold enough, that wold not automatically mean that the ice will get 2 meters thick within the 2-4 weeks till melt kicks in.

ice traps heat but open water only vents "EXTRA" heat which must be there, else it would be frozen. the moment ice starts building it will be much too late in some places to build meters of ice.

dunno the english term but your "Umkehrschluss" is not correct IMO
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1032 on: November 26, 2016, 06:31:56 PM »
Anyone know where is the old HYCOM maps? These pre-2012. I know that once were in the archive.
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticictn.html

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1033 on: November 26, 2016, 07:12:25 PM »
A-Team, thank you for that post and the video. In light of your commentary on water temps, I'm thinking, yes, how correct was Nunavut hunter Moses Noonoo in observing, quite simply, that the air is cold but the sea water is warmer. And it's probably safe to say he's not using any instruments but his own eyes and hands, combined with long experience with sea ice? :)

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1034 on: November 26, 2016, 08:04:13 PM »
Anyone know where is the old HYCOM maps?[/url]

I assume you mean from late 2011? Prior to that there was PIPS. If so they're still in the same place, albeit not referenced in the list you link to. You just need to work out how to construct an appropriate URL. See e.g.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1035 on: November 26, 2016, 08:15:34 PM »
The extremely early break up of Beaufort sea ice last spring allowed the water to accumulate far more heat than normal in May when the days are very long and the sun is high in the sky. That heat melted enormous amounts of multi-year ice that was advected into the Beaufort sea in midsummer. Therefore, we can expect that there is a thick freshwater layer above a thick warm summer maximum layer at this time in the Beaufort. If there is another strong high & Eckman pumping event next spring we can expect another early break up. Heat stored in the Canada basin from last has not likely radiated to space because the cool fresh water layer covered it.

Great comment A-Team...

Meanwhile, on the Atlantic side warm water is advecting in from the Norwegian current. This water is warm to greater than 300m depth. The recent warm storms have blown up over this deep warm water. I have attached images of SSTs for 26Nov for 2012 and 2016. There was a strong recovery after the record melt year of 2012 but this year there is much warmer water in the Barents and Kara seas. Moreover, the PDO pattern has shifted in the Pacific. Note that the N Pacific is very cold on the Asian side and very warm along the shores of Alaska.

Based on the SST patterns and the weather patterns this fall I would not expect to see a sea ice recovery this winter similar to 2012-2013.

The fresher water seems to me currently a pretty bad insulator. Like, it is demanding plenty of heat to stay liquid until mid-november, and I doubt this is happening only because of greenhouse effects
But looking at A-team's animations, I agree with your last statement. It will be very interesting to follow the potential warming maps of Tealight next year.
Beaufort gyre in winter/spring would generate a slow Ekman sinking if anything. Upwelling might happen near the coasts to replenish the slowly sinking water in the basin.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2016, 08:21:40 PM by seaicesailor »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1036 on: November 26, 2016, 09:08:21 PM »
@Jim Hunt
Thank you. :)
This is what I ment

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1037 on: November 26, 2016, 09:31:02 PM »
@ FishOutofWater

For clarification, the PDO was becoming much more positive for the last month or so. but now is heading back down because of the presence of the thing that makes it to become positive, the Aleutian Low, has recently been diminishing.  During the fall and winter of a strong nino an atmospheric teleconnection from the tropics enables the AL to form. Conversely 3-4 months after the onset of nina-like conditions the AL tends to be less frequent. So typically the PDO would be more negative right now but obviously other non-enso-teleconnected atmospheric dynamics were driving the AL-PDO show in the shorter term.  These shorter term fluctuations to trends in the AL (captured by the North Pacific Index) are one of the reasons why one needs to consider the PDO trend over larger spans of time.

For more on AL-PDO-NPI-ENSO relationships plz see excellent article by Bob Tisdale:
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/04/20/the-201415-el-nino-part-5-the-relationship-between-the-pdo-and-enso/
« Last Edit: November 26, 2016, 09:56:42 PM by Ice Shieldz »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1038 on: November 26, 2016, 09:55:09 PM »
Arctic temps have FINALLY dipped and are now "only" about 10oC above normal.

Should continue to drop and I don't think we'll see same ridiculously high anomalies in December. Just a feeling, though.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1039 on: November 26, 2016, 10:35:21 PM »
@ FishOutofWater
For more on AL-PDO-NPI-ENSO relationships plz see excellent article by Bob Tisdale:
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/04/20/the-201415-el-nino-part-5-the-relationship-between-the-pdo-and-enso/

Bob Tisdale is a regular poster at WUWT.  He is a hack climate denier who spins everything he touches in a way to promote his climate denial book.  Steer far and wide from that guy unless you have a healthy appetite for bullshit and lots of time to critically analyze how he skews his results.

Meanwhile, it might be worth looking at how the PDO was skewed negative (in the peer reviewed documentation) through the mitigation of sulfur dioxide emissions in Europe and the U.S. while significant increases occurred in SE Asia.

see:
Smith, D. M. et al. (2016) Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in recent slowdown in global surface warming, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3058

discussion here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/aerosol-emissions-key-to-the-surface-warming-slowdown-study-says

my comment on it here: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/01/piomas-january-2015.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01bb07e0a090970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01bb07e0a090970d
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1040 on: November 26, 2016, 11:10:24 PM »
Bob Tisdale is a regular poster at WUWT.  He is a hack climate denier who spins everything he touches in a way to promote his climate denial book.  Steer far and wide from that guy unless you have a healthy appetite for bullshit and lots of time to critically analyze how he skews his results
Wow OK thanks for the heads up about Bob Tisdale.  Since much of what Bob speaks of in his article is well known, I still think it's pretty spot on - in a similar way that big Joe Bastardi can also get his longer-term forecasts to verify when it isn't winter and there is no such thing as global warming going on. ::)  This is how these guy get you.  They build up just enough factual basis or credibility and then they use it to drive their agenda - so shameful!

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1041 on: November 27, 2016, 12:04:15 AM »
Jai is spot on about Tisdale. He knows some meteorology but he is absolutely full of it on climate.

As for the fresh water layer over the Beaufort....it is a poor insulator until it ices over. I suspect that it iced over quickly enough to protect some warm water below but without data from a buoy I am just speculating.

It's a crime that we don't have a bunch of buoys in the Arctic to help us decipher the details of the changing dynamics of the Arctic ocean.

I follow Mercator Ocean but they just changed their model one more time and eliminated access to older model output. It's a work in progress where the old model output wouldn't match the new model, but it annoys me that the old results are vaporized. I would like to see a good data assimilation model that handles the details of the Canada basin.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1042 on: November 27, 2016, 02:27:46 AM »
As for the fresh water layer over the Beaufort....it is a poor insulator until it ices over. I suspect that it iced over quickly enough to protect some warm water below but without data from a buoy I am just speculating.

Any discussion of sea ice melt leaving a 'freshwater lense' in the Beaufort Sea must include discussions of Sag River and McKenzie River flow rates, not to mention the snow melt runoff from the entire north slope and Yukon.  These volumes make the sea ice melt a literal drop in the bucket. (edit: this statement was incorrect, correction below!)

Sag River



MacKenzie
« Last Edit: November 27, 2016, 06:52:56 AM by jai mitchell »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1043 on: November 27, 2016, 03:33:57 AM »
Jai, I would like to have a better estimate of how much melt water and river water went out of the Arctic through the CAA. The Alaska coastal current moved along shore from west to east in the summer after the big Beaufort high and east winds of May. The shifting currents make it hard to figure what percentage of the fresh water off of Alaska and the Yukon end up in the big rotating pool in the Beaufort.

The freshwater inputs from Siberian rivers are also huge. Some of that water also eventually ends up in the Canada basin but it may be well enough mixed by the time it gets there so it's not part of the freshwater "lid".

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1044 on: November 27, 2016, 06:44:17 AM »
typical runoff from arctic basin watersheds are between 50 to 65% of total basin snow cover water content.

ftp://ftp.cira.colostate.edu/ftp/Liston/papers/co_author/1991.kane.WWR.pdf

THis has estimates of snow basin water equivalents from different regions.  It looks to be an average over a 3 month period and so is not a peak value. Hence the 100 mm average SWE is much lower than I would expect.  http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/rawlins/rawlins_HydroProcess2007.pdf

This shows that direct samples of peak snow water equivalents from a specific siberian watershed is about 200mm that is probably closer to the correct total water storage for the basins around the region (during peak) (see fig. 5) https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Georgy_Ayzel/publication/280312622_Simulating_the_Formation_of_River_Runoff_and_Snow_Cover_in_the_Northern_West_Siberia/links/55b1d40608aec0e5f431221a.pdf

But I guess we don't have to recreate the wheel http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2015/ArtMID/5037/ArticleID/227/River-Discharge



The average for the period is about 2,300 km^3 per year which is about 70% of the total river infloes.  I am actually pretty surprised by this, thinking it was much more.  Over the melt season period, the runoff freshwater content is about 1/10th (at most) of the sea ice melt contribution (arctic basin wide).
« Last Edit: November 27, 2016, 06:52:04 AM by jai mitchell »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1045 on: November 27, 2016, 01:06:06 PM »
Might textual analysis may be an easier way to monitor developments than to trawl through cryosphere journals or all these forums? ;)

The rise of hits for 2016 in a google search on “Arctic AND unprecedented” reveals a striking yet extreme pattern: a hockey stick. Here, for mid-latitude and equatorial controls, “Kansas AND unprecedented” and “Ecuador AND unprecedented” were used as controls (data not shown).

Not all hockey sticks are the same. The main difference is the ‘lie' of the stick which refers to the angle between shaft and blade. A lie value of 5 corresponds to a 135° angle and so forth, the NHL not using the metric system here -- a lie of 5 is 3pi/4 radians in the Système international d’Unités SI adopted by Montréal).

The graph below shows that the ‘lie’ of “Arctic AND unprecedented” is considerably steeper than pre-industrial hockey sticks made by the Mi'kmaq people of Nova Scotia,  the hockey stick of Wayne Gretzky (1.83 m, played crouched), the celebrated air temperature graph of M Mann 1999 showing an impossibly high lie angle of 106º in the original, and the preferred emission scenario of IPCC-2007.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/ONLINE-PREPRINTS/Millennium/mbh99.pdf

The first few dozen from the many thousands of results for “Arctic AND unprecedented” just at Google Scholar are shown below in chronological order; not included are hundreds of matches within forum posts. It's astonishing how many different topics come up beyond what we consider here.

Preparing for the unprecedented Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas

* Arctic Amplification and the Northward shift of a new Greenland melting record An unprecedented sustained jet stream easterly flow promoted enhanced runoff

* Late Holocene stable-isotope based winter temperature records from ice wedges in the Northeast Siberian Arctic The Arctic is currently undergoing an unprecedented warming.

* Arctic Browning: vegetation damage and implications for carbon balance major and unprecedented vegetation damage reported at landscape scales

* Evaluating underwater ambient noise levels across a changing Arctic environment As a result of climate change, the Arctic underwater acoustic environment is undergoing an unprecedented transformation of its ambient noise sources, including an expanded wind fetch over open water

* Beluga whale distribution, migration, and behavior in a changing Pacific Arctic Sea ice is disappearing at unprecedented rates in the Pacific Arctic with potential impacts to ice-associated marine predators

* Spatial genetic structure of Long-tailed Ducks (Clangula hyemalis) Arctic ecosystems are changing at an unprecedented rate

* Implementing high-latitude biogeochemical processes into Earth System Models Projections of future climate changes suggest that air temperatures in the Arctic could rise to the levels unprecedented in the last million years.

* Total ozone loss during the 2015/16 Arctic winter and comparison to previous years as shown by the unprecedented column depletion ozone loss and re-noxification in the Arctic during the winter 2015/16 compared to that

* Episodic warming of near-bottom waters under the Arctic sea ice on the central Laptev Sea shelf: warming was not observed on the deeper shelf until year-round under-ice easurements recorded unprecedented warm near-bottom waters of +0.6°C in winter 2012/2013, just after the Arctic sea ice extent featured a record minimum.

* Twenty-two years of Arctic ozone depletion observations and simulations. However, as shown by the unprecedented depletion of 39% in 2010/11, the loss does not depend on the vortex spring duration

* Plant nutrient acquisition strategies in tundra species: at which soil depth do species take up their nitrogen? The Arctic is warming at unprecedented rates. Increased thawing of permafrost releases nutrients locked up in the previously frozen soils layers,

* A database for depicting Arctic sea ice variations back to 1850 Bering Sea rate of retreat since the 1990s is unprecedented in the historical record for the pan-Arctic total ice cover

* With the retreat of polar ice, increasing navigability of the Northwest Passage and the growing global interest in Arctic resources, Canada faces unprecedented opportunities

* Body shrinkage due to Arctic warming reduces red knot fitness in tropical wintering range Especially in the Arctic, warming has been observed at unprecedented rates. Hence, body-size reductions would be expected to be most pronounced

* Toward strategic, coherent, policy-relevant arctic science Although the White House has grasped the urgency of scientific responses to the unprecedented change gripping the Arctic

* Canadian Arctic Archipelago Conspecifics Flower Earlier in the High Arctic than the Mid-Arctic The Canadian Arctic Archipelago is experiencing unprecedented climate change The rapidly rising temperatures will likely impact plant phenology dramatically.

* Regional Characteristics of Global Warming: Linear Projection for the Timing of unprecedented Climate  For the ocean, an unprecedented climate would come within 200 years over the Indian Ocean, the middle latitudes of the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic,

* North America's Iconic Marine Species at Risk Due To unprecedented Ocean Warming The copepod species Calanus finmarchicus is the right whale's primary source of nutrition,

* High resolution Holocene sea ice records from Herald Canyon, Chukchi Sea it is still uncertain whether the shift from perennial to seasonal ice cover expected for the near future was unprecedented during the current interglacial.

* Stability of fine-grained sediments subject to gas hydrate dissociation in the Arctic continental margin methane gas venting is related to the dissociation of methane gas hydrate induced by the unprecedented Arctic warming

* Bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls and hexachlorobenzene by three Arctic benthic species The Arctic region is undergoing an unprecedented change, with global rising changes to eg seasonal weather patterns and even ecosystems

* A critical review of hydrocarbon exploitation and shipping governance measures for oil pollution prevention and preparedness in the Arctic The Arctic currently faces unprecedented pressures from increased shipping with associated increased risks of oil pollution

* The biogeography of red snow microbiomes and their role in melting arctic glaciers The Arctic is melting at an unprecedented rate and key drivers are changes in snow and ice albedo. Here we show that red snow plays a crucial role in decreasing albedo.

* Arctic research cooperation. IASC after 25 years. Arguably, with the rapid change unfolding today throughout the Arctic and the global implications of largely unprecedented physical and ecological transformations in the region

* Arctic governance paradigm and the role of China With unprecedented climate-driven loss of sea ice over last 35 years and growing international trade supported by the rise of Asian economics, Arctic shipping shows more promise of being navigable.

* International environmental cooperation in the Arctic International cooperation in the field of environmental safety, unprecedented speed and energy cooperation in the Arctic can serve as a lesson for humanity.

* unprecedented decrease in deposition of nitrogen oxides over North America linked to recent warming of the Arctic and have caused an alteration of prevailing seasonal wind directions

* Mass losses from Svalbard land-terminating glaciers by the end of the 21st century under an RCP 8.5 scenario suggest that the archipelago will experience an unprecedented for the Arctic- glacier recession over the 21st century.

* Arctic marine phytobenthos of northern Baffin Island .. unprecedented for the last 1450 years The disappearance of Arctic

* The Arctic Continental Shelf and Its Evolving Morphologic Context has allowed the Arctic coastal States to collect an unprecedented amount of new mapping data in the Arctic

* Arctic climate change: Greenhouse warming unleashed Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1046 on: November 27, 2016, 01:17:05 PM »
FDDs N80 thru Nov 26, 2016

Climatology: 1265 FDDs
2016: 598
Anomaly: -667



Implied new ice thickness:
Lebedev:
  • Climatology 1.03m
  • 2016  0.67m
Berillo:
  • Climatology 0.84m
  • 2016 0.54m

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1047 on: November 27, 2016, 01:21:42 PM »
A-Team - That's an impressive list of topics.  It deserves to be widely circulated.  That comment could serve as a guest post on the blog.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1048 on: November 27, 2016, 02:18:36 PM »
Quote
That's an impressive list of topics. It deserves to be widely circulated. 
Agree, it is worth doing better. This was only 3 pages of matches. There were 3440 of them just on scholar. And that was only finding a fraction of them. Get a lot more throwing in journalism with quotes from scientists. Organizable by topic would help to avoid repetition. Or random order as encountered, stream of consciousness minor editing. A few sort fields in a database. Documentation by doi ... else someone will complain taken out of context. Wouldn't take that much effort. Maybe get a start, establish an entry format and encourage people here to add others.

Testing whether forum scrolling is effective ... not completely

* Preparing for the unprecedented Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas   
* Arctic Amplification and the Northward shift of a new Greenland melting record An unprecedented sustained jet stream easterly flow promoted enhanced runoff   
* Late Holocene stable-isotope based winter temperature records from ice wedges in the Northeast Siberian Arctic The Arctic is currently undergoing an unprecedented warming.   
* Arctic Browning: vegetation damage and implications for carbon balance major and unprecedented vegetation damage reported at landscape scales   
* Evaluating underwater ambient noise levels across a changing Arctic environment As a result of climate change, the Arctic underwater acoustic environment is undergoing an unprecedented transformation of its ambient noise sources, including an expanded wind fetch over open water   
* Beluga whale distribution, migration, and behavior in a changing Pacific Arctic Sea ice is disappearing at unprecedented rates in the Pacific Arctic with potential impacts to ice-associated marine predators   
* Spatial genetic structure of Long-tailed Ducks (Clangula hyemalis) Arctic ecosystems are changing at an unprecedented rate   
* Implementing high-latitude biogeochemical processes into Earth System Models Projections of future climate changes suggest that air temperatures in the Arctic could rise to the levels unprecedented in the last million years.    
* Total ozone loss during the 2015/16 Arctic winter and comparison to previous years as shown by the [=blue]unprecedented[/color] column depletion ozone loss and re-noxification in the Arctic during the winter 2015/16 compared to that    
* Episodic warming of near-bottom waters under the Arctic sea ice on central Laptev Sea shelf: warming was not observed on deeper shelf until year-round under-ice measurements recorded unprecedented warm waters of +0.6°C in winter 2012/2013
* Twenty-two years of Arctic ozone depletion observations and simulations. However, as shown by the unprecedented depletion of 39% in 2010/11, the loss does not depend on the vortex spring duration    
* Plant nutrient acquisition strategies in tundra species: at which soil depth do species take up their nitrogen? The Arctic is warming at unprecedented rates. Increased thawing of permafrost releases nutrients locked up in the previously frozen soils layers,   
* A database for depicting Arctic sea ice variations back to 1850 Bering Sea rate of retreat since the 1990s is unprecedented in the historical record for the pan-Arctic total ice cover   
* With the retreat of polar ice, increasing navigability of the Northwest Passage and the growing global interest in Arctic resources, Canada faces unprecedented opportunities   
* Body shrinkage due to Arctic warming reduces red knot fitness in tropical wintering range Especially in the Arctic, warming has been observed at unprecedented rates. Hence, body-size reductions would be expected to be most pronounced    
* Toward strategic, coherent, policy-relevant arctic science Although the White House has grasped the urgency of scientific responses to the unprecedented change gripping the Arctic   
* Canadian Arctic Archipelago Conspecifics Flower Earlier in the High Arctic than the Mid-Arctic The Canadian Arctic Archipelago is experiencing unprecedented climate change The rapidly rising temperatures will likely impact plant phenology dramatically.   
* Regional Characteristics of Global Warming: Linear Projection for Timing of unprecedented Climate  For the ocean, an unprecedented climate would come within 200 years over the Indian Ocean, the mid latitudes of North South Atlantic    
* North America's Iconic Marine Species at Risk Due To unprecedented Ocean Warming The copepod species Calanus finmarchicus is the right whale's primary source of nutrition,   
* High resolution Holocene sea ice records from Herald Canyon, Chukchi Sea it is still uncertain whether the shift from perennial to seasonal ice cover expected for the near future was unprecedented during the current interglacial.
* Stability of fine-grained sediments subject to gas hydrate dissociation in the Arctic continental margin methane gas venting is related to the dissociation of methane gas hydrate induced by the unprecedented Arctic warming   
* Bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls and hexachlorobenzene by three Arctic benthic species The Arctic region is undergoing an unprecedented change, with global rising changes to eg seasonal weather patterns and even ecosystems   
* A critical review of hydrocarbon exploitation and shipping governance measures for oil pollution prevention and preparedness in the Arctic The Arctic currently faces unprecedented pressures from increased shipping with associated increased risks of oil pollution   
* The biogeography of red snow microbiomes and their role in melting arctic glaciers The Arctic is melting at an unprecedented rate and key drivers are changes in snow and ice albedo. Here we show that red snow plays a crucial role in decreasing albedo.    
* Arctic research cooperation. IASC after 25 years. Arguably, with the rapid change unfolding today throughout the Arctic and the global implications of largely unprecedented physical and ecological transformations in the region   
* Arctic governance paradigm and the role of China With unprecedented climate-driven loss of sea ice over last 35 years and growing international trade supported by the rise of Asian economics, Arctic shipping shows more promise of being navigable.    
* International environmental cooperation in the Arctic International cooperation in the field of environmental safety, unprecedented speed and energy cooperation in the Arctic can serve as a lesson for humanity.    
* unprecedented decrease in deposition of nitrogen oxides over North America linked to recent warming of the Arctic and have caused an alteration of prevailing seasonal wind directions   
* Mass losses from Svalbard land-terminating glaciers by the end of the 21st century under an RCP 8.5 scenario suggest that the archipelago will experience an unprecedented for the Arctic- glacier recession over the 21st century.    
* Arctic marine phytobenthos of northern Baffin Island .. unprecedented for the last 1450 years The disappearance of Arctic    
* The Arctic Continental Shelf and Its Evolving Morphologic Context has allowed the Arctic coastal States to collect an unprecedented amount of new mapping data in the Arctic   
* Arctic climate change: Greenhouse warming unleashed Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years.


 Meanwhile, back at the Barents and Chukchi: gradual encroachment continues to Nov 26th. Some of it is growth, some is ice pack movement, some of the month's new ice remains very thin either in SMOS thickness or AMSR2 concentration view.

Although the two regions are the Arctic Ocean's only contact with the global ocean, the re-freezing issues are quite different in late November:

-- Facing the Pacific, the Chukchi lies over a vast shallow continental shelf. It has been preconditioned by residual solar warming, wave mixing, and anomalously warm influxes through the Bering Strait, part of which belong to the Alaskan Coastal Current and hug that narrow shelf into the Beaufort. Here the ice front is advancing slowly but fairly steadily.

-- Facing the Atlantic, the Svalbard FJI Polar Front adsorbs more sverdrups of increasingly warm Atlantic Waters from the Barents and West Svalbard Current which sweep along the abrupt shelf break for almost 1500 km. Here the ice is advancing erratically, making forays into the St Anna Trough but then retreating, in a balancing act between melt and refreezing on the periphery of the main polar ice pack and its wind-driven motions.

The air will remain far too warm to freeze sea water if the astonishing conditions at the Longyearben airport persist (4th image, thx to zlabe for noticing).
« Last Edit: November 27, 2016, 05:15:58 PM by A-Team »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1049 on: November 27, 2016, 07:04:19 PM »
It always helps to do the accounting before reaching conclusions. Annual total precipitation amounts in the Arctic are low, so unless  a large source of stored ice, e.g. Greenland, is melting the water input to rivers per unit area of Arctic land is small. On the other hand on meter of sea ice melting in the summer over the Arctic ocean itself is a huge amount of fresh water because it's a large area times a meter of water thickness.

If winds and currents concentrate the meltwater in the Beaufort, as they do, melting sea ice can create a huge pool of freshened sea water, and it has.

In the early '70's there was a feature called the "great salinity anomaly" when the Atlantic has a massive influx of fresh water from the Arctic. I would love to know how much of that was the result of Beaufort sea water draining through the passages of the CAA.

I suspect that this years lengthy opening of the CAA's channels, combined with winds and currents that moved Arctic water through them may have drained large amounts of Fresh water towards the Atlantic.

Will we see a drop in salinity in the Labrador sea soon? Will that affect the overturning circulation?

We'll see. The basic accounting for the fresh water in the Arctic system is critically important to understanding climate change and the fate of sea ice.