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CognitiveBias

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1350 on: December 12, 2016, 05:07:12 PM »
Ktonine,
  Love the chart!  Thanks for posting it.

  Any chance that you have the chart as raw FDD rather than anomaly? 

Thanks!
Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Dec 11, 2016:

Climatology: 1653.83
2016:              853.61
Anomaly:       -800.22



Implied new ice thickness to date:
Per Lebedev:
Climo: 1.212 m
2016:  0.821 m

Per Billelo
Climo:  0.979 m
2016:   0.667 m

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1351 on: December 12, 2016, 05:31:46 PM »
On-topic post.

I was looking at the Nares Strait satellite pictures and posted about a polynya opening up in the Lincoln Sea at the mouth of the strait (see http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg96314.html#msg96314)
Looking back through the Sentinel images shows this polynya starting to open on 7th December.

I've found a reference ... describing this polynya with a solid arch from Greenland to Ellesmere island, with an opening forming at the top of Nares. He says that the sea ice transport normally stops by January, so this pattern appears to be fairly normal - at the moment.
The arch typically forms by February if I recall correctly, there are usually two of them, one at the top entrance and one at Kane Basin. Now is a bit early and I doubt that it holds. But in any case, the best place for discussing this and reading of past arches is the Nares Strait Thread in the Greenland sub-forum.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1352 on: December 12, 2016, 05:50:24 PM »

<snip>
I've found a reference here which describes this polynya as a standard feature. This references a paper by Kozo, 1991 (preview here), describing this polynya with a solid arch from Greenland to Ellesmere island, with an opening forming at the top of Nares. He says that the sea ice transport normally stops by January, so this pattern appears to be fairly normal - at the moment.
I believe you are correct sir; the Lincoln Sea polynya is indeed a commonly occurring feature during the  freezing season.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1353 on: December 12, 2016, 06:38:54 PM »
If only we had a forum called Best Forum Posts (which under no foreseeable circumstances would include more than 4-5 per 1000, two weeks at current rates). Here #1330 and #1336 might very well make the cut.

Sorry. Have to drop off topic for a second to say Thanks A-Team, I'm humbled.  It was from the heart.  I feel for these guys.
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1354 on: December 12, 2016, 10:27:51 PM »
If only we had a forum called Best Forum Posts (which under no foreseeable circumstances would include more than 4-5 per 1000, two weeks at current rates). Here #1330 and #1336 might very well make the cut.

I'm sorry A-Team, but I find your posts tend to be overwhelming.  I understand that you are synthesizing many many visual depictions into a point, but far too often it feels a bit like modern art, and I get the point about half the time.  I would like it better if you provided less data per post and spent more time explaining what you are showing.

Iceismylife

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1355 on: December 12, 2016, 10:48:40 PM »
If only we had a forum called Best Forum Posts (which under no foreseeable circumstances would include more than 4-5 per 1000, two weeks at current rates). Here #1330 and #1336 might very well make the cut.

I'm sorry A-Team, but I find your posts tend to be overwhelming.  I understand that you are synthesizing many many visual depictions into a point, but far too often it feels a bit like modern art, and I get the point about half the time.  I would like it better if you provided less data per post and spent more time explaining what you are showing.
For me keep the fire house going. A-Team Thank you for the informative and useful information.

Your step and repeat for the new normal seems to be spot on.  No changes or modifications from me.


jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1356 on: December 13, 2016, 12:03:46 AM »
If only we had a forum called Best Forum Posts (which under no foreseeable circumstances would include more than 4-5 per 1000, two weeks at current rates). Here #1330 and #1336 might very well make the cut.

I'm sorry A-Team, but I find your posts tend to be overwhelming.  I understand that you are synthesizing many many visual depictions into a point, but far too often it feels a bit like modern art, and I get the point about half the time.  I would like it better if you provided less data per post and spent more time explaining what you are showing.
I understand your challenge, but would discourage reducing the density A-Team's posts.  I won't hesitate to ask for context.  Do that; there are plenty of interpreters around and if we miss something I'm sure A-Team will happily step in to connect dots.
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Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1357 on: December 13, 2016, 12:12:19 AM »
I was late to give the green light for this comment by a newcomer (welcome, dosibl, comments have to be approved by me as an antispam-measure, until a profile is released, which yours now is):

The rub on machine learning for 16/17 freezing is that unless someone made it a big project I don't see it being that useful, perhaps only as good as forecasting ice disposition a few days into the future. With how unprecedented the past few weeks have been, I'd also be wary of a model that relied too much on historic data since it would have a hard time accounting for what we are seeing now.

Its a shame the NIPS slides didn't cover any deep learning, its also a shame that NIPS'16 just ended and I can't find anything about climate modeling in the presentations. Archimid, don't give AlphaGo too much credit, the paper google released on it is a bit technical but the entire system is pretty straightforward to understand. As with all things deep learning, the end result will depend on the quality and quantity of data available.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1358 on: December 13, 2016, 01:32:57 AM »
As with all things deep learning, the end result will depend on the quality and quantity of data available.

Not just these data.  The quality of the anticipation of the coding for deep learning.  Because most deep learning, outside of AI is fairly vertical.  Vertical deep learning in the context of GCM is not helpful because the whole problem is that we need to correlate huge amounts of apparently unrelated data from a broad spectrum of disciplines which have very differing algorithms.  Then generate new ways of looking at them.

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John Batteen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1359 on: December 13, 2016, 02:43:45 AM »
Ktonine,
  Love the chart!  Thanks for posting it.

  Any chance that you have the chart as raw FDD rather than anomaly? 

Thanks!

Seconded.  I'd love to see that chart.

ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1360 on: December 13, 2016, 04:11:59 AM »
Per request, but I find this less informative.  I will probably stick with the FDD Anomaly graph.

Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Dec 11, 2016:

Climatology: 1653.83
2016:               853.61
Anomaly:       -800.22




Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1361 on: December 13, 2016, 04:17:16 AM »
ktonine; Using CMEMS, it looks like your thickness calculations are very close, if not spot on.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1362 on: December 13, 2016, 04:18:23 AM »
Actually, that chart sort of looks exactly how the extent chart looks compared previous years. Would suggest the warm weather is the main driver of the slow freeze, no?

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1363 on: December 13, 2016, 04:58:18 AM »
Quote
stay on-topic
If only we had a forum called Best Forum Posts (which under no foreseeable circumstances would include more than 4-5 per 1000, two weeks at current rates). Here #1330 and #1336 might very well make the cut.

Off-Topic continued since Copenhagen catastrophe got a mention (no, I was not there):
<clip>
Essentially the politicians said "When the roof falls in tell us what to do".  Of course the answer is "Put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye".

Many of those scientists involved in Copenhagen refused, ever, to have anything to do with a climate summit again.

While science has tools for measuring and modelling faster-than-linear changes (take for example the quants in physics) the allowed application range for these dictated by statistics is quite strict and hard to reach. Here in the forum we've seen the gompertz- and exp-fits used for sea ice. Thus no one in 2006 would have used these in a serious scientific article on sea ice. This, however, doesn't prevent people from making hypotheses AT the earliest possible time, WHEN the observations allow these.

Early ref to a well known case of this : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

These hypotheses may, often enough, pop up in the coffee table discussions between scientists and/or students, f.e. I remember talking about WA/CC in 1997(?) , and in particular how the models in those days didn't resolve this, and discussing the 'tropical hotspot' with someone who liked to ignore the cooling of the stratosphere about the same time.

I've done some such myself such as http://erimaassa.blogspot.fi/2011/12/unscientific-extrapolation.html (excited to see if this plays out, well, not really, but anyway)
and http://erimaassa.blogspot.fi/2014/01/brutality.html (concerning glacial inceptions, and doing "the best" with the data that is, as lost data is lost.) Both are very much unscientific.

This is a transitional period of climatology -> hydrodynamical earth science, I'd say, and it's no surprise long period averages are getting poorer predictors over the question 'where it's nicest to live in 2050?'

A bit more on topic:

-1- Emissions cause greenhouse effect, raising air and water temperatures.
-2- Arctic is most affected in autumn via amplification mechanism.
-3- The heat gradient between equator and Arctic is diminished.
-4- Jet stream slows and wobbles according to franciscan theory.
-5- Polar air streams down to mid-latitudes in eastern US on down-wobble.
-6- Mid-Pacific and Siberian air stream north on up-wobble to replace missing Arctic air.
-7- Warm air and water flow north through Bering Strait to the Chukchi, stalling lateral refreeze.
-8- Return to -4- and repeat as appropriate.
-9- Expect two strong winter storms like the 27 Dec 15 to bring moisture and insulating clouds.
-10- Less winter freeze onto bottom ice results in thinner ice at beginning of melt season.
-11- The open water season better matches peak insolation season.
-12- More water vapor in air means more energetic summer cyclones early and late.
-13- Reduced albedo in summer and thin ice/dry snow cover in winter add to planetary heat.
-14- Return to -1- and repeat until permafrost and methane kick in.


At least
- 13½ - factor in the possible pulses in melt rates that arise from the earths large scale 'pulsator' of hydrodynamical heat (ENSO).
but this would have to be scientifically proven first I guess. And it's possible this is already in in the third, fourth and 7th step.

Thanks for the ref to the article describing the early voyage to Chukchi with enormous freeboard of ice... , could it be the human influence on climate has started very early, but as it would have been concentrated to the Arctic, the slow thinning of old arctic sea ice was unnoticed until the 1950s?

« Last Edit: December 13, 2016, 08:28:50 AM by Pmt111500 »

epiphyte

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1364 on: December 13, 2016, 06:24:43 AM »
Per request, but I find this less informative.  I will probably stick with the FDD Anomaly graph.
To me at least this one is more informative. You can get a feel for the anomaly from the actual values, but not the other way around. Also, I'd think that the most significant number for comparison is the total fdd by the end of the freezing season. This graph allows you to track progress towards that. The anomaly graph is more dramatic... But imo it's not as useful because there's no way to gauge the absolute magnitude or likely impact of the changes year-on-year,

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1365 on: December 13, 2016, 07:45:42 AM »
In case you haven't noticed: U. Bremen has changed their link to:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start/

Eli81

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1366 on: December 13, 2016, 10:08:56 AM »
Regarding FDD graphs, I think both are relevant, just different ways of visualizing the same data.

It would probably be more intuitive for the uninitiated to see the Accumulated FDDs graph, and then the anomaly graph though.

If we're going for intuitive, might I also suggest that you perhaps spell FDD out in the title of your graph? I know it's clunky; I just noticed that when your graph got shared on twitter, nobody seemed to know what a FDD was.  ;D

Enjoying the regular updates to this important metric in any case. I concur with whoever said that this freeze season is just as exciting as the melt season, if not more so. The slow motion train wreck continues unabated, and we've got a front row seat...

swoozle

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1367 on: December 13, 2016, 01:21:49 PM »
Does anyone know why Andrew Slater isn't doing his version of the FDD charts this year? I like that format.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/


Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1368 on: December 13, 2016, 01:28:32 PM »
typepad.com/blog/2016/09/in-memoriam-andrew-slater.html
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1369 on: December 13, 2016, 02:46:24 PM »
Below, the two slide sets compare the Bering Strait and Barents Sea for Dec 12th as seen by NIC (National/Naval Ice Center) and UHH AMSR2. NIC uses expert annotation of a variety of satellite inputs to determine the marginal ice zone and 'fast ice'. NIC is seldom mentioned on these forums; it is difficult to ascertain a purpose to it. Note though that 'Dec 12' doesn't necessarily mean the same time for the two snapshots.

The still images look at the windytv implementation of nullschool for coming wind and air temperatures. Some things are better with it such as an ECMWF option and the slidable readout but some things are worse such as lack of a precision url.

On the technical side, a good image url like that of U Bremen or nullschool compensates for the lack of ftp site. That is, after building a time series of urls by grepping a spreadsheet and saving to plain text, ImageJ will retrieve the images remotely unattended into a stack, which saves as an instant animation. Auto-updating of the list refreshes the animation. Gimp is currently internet-unaware in terms of image lists.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1370 on: December 13, 2016, 03:30:39 PM »
I noticed that, FDD aside, both Piomas Anomalies and DMI temperatures north of 80' indicate that the current re-freeze season is most closely approximated by the 2007 season.  Note that late november anomalies for both years are nearly tied with the Sept. low and the refreeze DMI temp graphs for both years were consistantly above the 30-year mean with a large late year spike > 20C above the mean (though this year is, of course, Oh Jesus!)
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1371 on: December 13, 2016, 03:37:51 PM »
typepad.com/blog/2016/09/in-memoriam-andrew-slater.html
May he R.I.P.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/09/in-memoriam-andrew-slater.html

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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1372 on: December 13, 2016, 04:23:05 PM »
Quote
FDD aside, both Piomas Anomalies and DMI temperatures north of 80'
Meanwhile ... from 65º north to the pole, November has gotten quite a bit warmer in recent years.

The Sentinel 1A active radar is coming to Wrangel Island on Dec 20th, but for some reason, there's no coverage of the Bering Strait or Chukchi. Otherwise ... somebody somewhere  is doing something with this imagery to greatly refine the products we are currently using.

Click if you dare to view the attached full sized bear picture; it is a rather substantial individual.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2016, 04:39:31 PM by A-Team »

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1373 on: December 13, 2016, 05:33:49 PM »
Checking  out the latest global CO2 figures I noticed that we bounced up in Sept slightly but a strong climb in October.  No sign of slowing as the Nino dies, it was a 3.71 ppm inter-annual increase for the month.  We won’t know the final average figure for 2016 until mid Feb, but it’s now looking like it will be 3.2 – 3.6.

That got me checking.  There are two other recorded peaks in the record.  86-88, 96-98 as well as 2014-2016.  I’ve taken the year before rather than the year after because we won’t get 2017 till feb 2018.

The comparison is telling.  If we use 3.2 (the lower estimate I have for 2016 given that 2015 was 2.98 and 2016 was consistently stronger), for 2016, the cumulative rise for the three years comes out as.

86-88: 5.97
96-98: 5.86
2014-2016: 8.17

I think that figure tells a tale of change which, whilst not immediately relevant to the current melt season and the re-freeze, is in no way irrelevant over all.  Especially to the winter warm temps.

I will be intensely interested to see how long this extended >3ppm inter-annual growth goes on.  Because the Nino which drove it is ending.

CH4 seems to have had a bump too, over the Nino.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1374 on: December 13, 2016, 06:02:17 PM »
November has gotten quite a bit warmer in recent years.

I'd noticed that too. Unlike some people!

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,578.msg96402.html#msg96402
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1375 on: December 13, 2016, 06:47:17 PM »
Here's the press pack from the AGU "First results from the Norwegian Young Sea ICE Expedition" press conference earlier today:

http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2016/press-item/first-results-from-the-norwegian-young-sea-ice-expedition/

and here's the associated video:



Quote
Many things we experienced took us by surprise,” said Mats Granskog, a research scientist at the Norwegian Polar Institute and chief scientist of the Norwegian young sea ICE, or N-ICE2015 project. We saw that the new Arctic, with much thinner sea ice only three to four feet thick, functions much differently from the Arctic we knew only 20 years ago, when the ice was much thicker.

Not to mention:

Quote
Winter storms caused the sea ice to drift so fast that it increased mixing of the water beneath the ice. Deeper, warmer water was mixed up closer to the sea ice, causing it to melt from below despite winter air temperatures that were below freezing.

Researchers saw summer storms stir up deep warm waters and melt as much as 25 cm of ice in a single day.

Next up is live streaming of the 2016 "Arctic Report Card":

http://live.projectionnet.com/agupress2016/fm2016.aspx
« Last Edit: December 13, 2016, 10:11:57 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1376 on: December 13, 2016, 08:52:15 PM »
Great post Jim. I said a while back that there is nothing like an eyes on report.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1377 on: December 13, 2016, 10:18:56 PM »
Thanks TT!

Here's one of the 2016 Report Card graphics. Not a surprise to most here, but I wonder what the MSM will make of it?
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1378 on: December 14, 2016, 01:15:16 AM »
Here's a video of the AGU press conference about the N-ICE2015 expedition:



As Von Walden points out:

Quote
The N-ICE2015 field campaign was only the 2nd time that observations have been made over the Central Arctic ice pack in winter. The first observations were made almost 20 years ago during the SHEBA field campaign. SHEBA was conducted in the Pacific sector of the Arctic over thick multi-year ice. In contrast the N-ICE2015 field campaign made the first winter observations in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, but also the first measurements over young, thin sea ice.
 

« Last Edit: December 14, 2016, 01:25:56 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1379 on: December 14, 2016, 02:45:53 PM »
Good catch Jim, scary that the weight of the snow is sinking the ice below sea level.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1380 on: December 14, 2016, 06:20:46 PM »
What an amazing video. The introduction alone was worth the watch. But the information content was great.  The story of the camp broken up by fast melting ice was the best.  These scientist are out there risking their lives to rescue data, while cowardly bureaucrats try to hide that very same research.  These scientists are heroes.
Thanks Jim Hunt. That was great was great find.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1381 on: December 14, 2016, 07:04:58 PM »
Good watch Jim.

Was it just my sensibilities or were the press leading verging on hostile?  It seemed that the questions were there to pick holes rather than expand on the phenomena.

It is a pity that this kid of expedition could not also have been there in early 2016.  But I recognise that these expeditions cost quite a lot and the money must be doled out.

I'm wondering where Tara Arctic falls in this.  They said that this kind of scientific study had only been done once before.  I know that Tara was also part of Damocles which was used in the calibration of Cryosat2 and that it was in the ice all winter until released in the early summer on the Atlantic side.

Perhaps it was just the range of experiments?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1382 on: December 14, 2016, 07:37:06 PM »
These scientists are heroes.

Here's a few more, this time from just outside AGU:
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1383 on: December 14, 2016, 07:48:59 PM »
Was it just my sensibilities or were the press leading verging on hostile?

Perhaps most of "the press" simply didn't understand the information that was being presented to them?

Quote
I'm wondering where Tara Arctic falls in this.  They said that this kind of scientific study had only been done once before.  I know that Tara was also part of Damocles which was used in the calibration of Cryosat2 and that it was in the ice all winter until released in the early summer on the Atlantic side.

Perhaps it was just the range of experiments?

The Tara expedition was on a much smaller scale, but they certainly did some science:

http://www.damocles-eu.org/research/TARA_ARCTIC_2007-2008_The_Great_Arctic_drift_54.shtml

That would seem to include "observations". A bit more on Tara at:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,624.msg16419.html#msg16419

 
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1384 on: December 14, 2016, 10:04:45 PM »
Good catch Jim, scary that the weight of the snow is sinking the ice below sea level.

Could it be a good thing? At least as far as the lower part of the snow pack going to slush and then ice, ultimately thickening the ice pack from the top down. The scary part is all that insulation but at least it's partly buffered by some growth top down to compensate for loss of growth bottom up.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1385 on: December 14, 2016, 10:31:30 PM »
The more concerning thing, to my mind, was that they monitored deep water mixing which melted the ice from below; simply by the speed and movement of the thinner ice.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1386 on: December 14, 2016, 10:34:40 PM »
Jim I watched Tara daily from late 2006 when I became aware of it. Sadly the Tara home page is now gone.  I was going to link it.

As  I recall the conditions Tara saw were very different to this expedition.  It's like the intervening 9 years gave us a different Arctic.

Hmmm, it moved and is less.  But quite a lot of science and quite overlapping.

Quite a lot of papers resulting too.

Remembering this was during 2006/7.  Quite an eventful pair of years.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2016, 10:42:26 PM by NeilT »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1387 on: December 14, 2016, 11:42:27 PM »
@ johnm33 & icy voyeur

Wondering how the snow levels are shaping up this season, and if some of our extra atmospheric moisture is finding its way to become more snow on the ice pack?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1388 on: December 14, 2016, 11:56:25 PM »
 :o

Ice Shieldz,

Those precip graphs (along with the NCEP/NCAR reeval temps for oct-nov) are the clearest indication that we are now in a bifurcation (dual state) mode in the arctic and that we are very likely moving across a tipping point. 

The current projections for December show that this trend is going to continue, as it was doing last January-April (post ENSO water vapor push).    If this happens then the Oct-December anomaly values will be off scale.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxrmaps/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.T2_anom
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1389 on: December 15, 2016, 12:25:57 AM »
The more concerning thing, to my mind, was that they monitored deep water mixing which melted the ice from below; simply by the speed and movement of the thinner ice.

Indeed. The dragon lives below the ice. Thin ice being fractured and driven by the wind awakens the dragon --- warm denser (saltier) water. That's the positive feedback that mutually amplifies the albedo positive feedback as an attack from above and below. 

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1390 on: December 15, 2016, 12:39:50 AM »
Along that line of thought, what we can expect (movement wise) in the coming few days.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1391 on: December 15, 2016, 01:02:34 AM »
Wondering how the snow levels are shaping up this season.

Here's Topaz 4 snow depth:
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1392 on: December 15, 2016, 01:42:43 AM »
Ice Shieldz

 According to this forecast. there's an amazing procession of warm wet storms in the next week up the Greenland coast thru Fram strait and across the Arctic basin, some with a pretty low central pressure  .All constantly disrupting an area of near normal temperatures between the New Siberian Islands and the CAA

Lots of precipitation, Svalbard may get a couple of rainy periods, maybe Franz Josef Land too. And then there's the Pacific side

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxrmaps/#GFS-025deg.ARC-LEA.PRCP-WS10

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1393 on: December 15, 2016, 08:15:44 AM »
Wondering how the snow levels are shaping up this season.

Here's Topaz 4 snow depth:

That was a lot of humidity and just a thin snow layer! Not good

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1394 on: December 15, 2016, 01:02:23 PM »
But quite a lot of science and quite overlapping.

Quite a lot of papers resulting too.

There's quite a few papers promised about the Lance expedition also. It's hard to see how they will be able to avoid referencing the likes of Pierre Rampal and Jérôme Weiss.

The first ones seem to be (paywalled) at:

http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/issue/10.1002/(ISSN)2169-9291.NICE1/

See also:

https://www.researchgate.net/project/Norwegian-young-sea-ICE-N-ICE2015-expedition

This slightly older article is freely available for example:

Arctic Research on Thin Ice: Consequences of Arctic Sea Ice Loss
« Last Edit: December 15, 2016, 01:31:30 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1395 on: December 15, 2016, 04:52:19 PM »
Wondering how the snow levels are shaping up this season, and if some of our extra atmospheric moisture is finding its way to become more snow on the ice pack?

Thanks Ice Shieldz!  That is exactly what I wanted, and says exactly what I expected.  Would you mind telling me how to find it on their site?  Also, would there be an expanded version for about the last five years?  I think it would tend to confirm my contention that the Arctic changed from a desert climate to an ocean climate on Dec 27 2015.

(P.S.  I think it was A-Team who mentioned the storm on the 27th.  I was just calling it the end of December.)
« Last Edit: December 15, 2016, 04:58:34 PM by Jim Williams »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1396 on: December 15, 2016, 06:16:58 PM »
is the polar cell collapsing?

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1397 on: December 15, 2016, 07:04:49 PM »
Someone posted two forecast charts for both polar vortices a while back. Can't remember if it was this thread or the Melting Season thread. Would really like to find these again or an updated version. I thought that I saved them, but can't find them or where they came from.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1398 on: December 15, 2016, 08:12:29 PM »
Jim Williams,

You can get the raw precip data or plotted charts of the data here at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

Super cool page to bookmark especially since there are other variables that one can derive data for, like temps, winds, etc and at various altitudes.  To select the settings for the page just read the how-to paragraph at the top of the page.  Below is a screenshot of the settings i used to plot the precipitable water timeseries for Oct-Nov.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1399 on: December 15, 2016, 08:30:30 PM »
The polar cell isn't collapsing yet but there has been strong wave number 2 activity which tends to split or elongate the stratospheric polar vortex. Not surprisingly the strong wave 2 activity correlates with storms concurrently moving into the Arctic from both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

This time of year the Rossby wave activity in the troposphere interacts with the stratosphere because they both have strong westerly spin. The QBO is also in the westerly phase, which helps the stratospheric polar vortex spin up and get very cold.

The stratospheric polar vortex split at the end of October has been causing the vortex to wobble like a kicked spinning top and it's helping cause some really weird weather like today when eastern Siberia will be warmer than northern New England. The tropospheric polar vortex will be passing over Caribou Maine tonight while warm air pours into the Arctic from the Pacific ocean.

This whole weird situation is holding back the formation of sea ice on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic.