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CraigsIsland

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1400 on: December 15, 2016, 08:37:21 PM »
jeez. this is why I wish I had gone into atmospheric science. Thanks FoW!

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1401 on: December 15, 2016, 11:41:57 PM »
With a hat tip to @diablobanquisa for the heads up, an animation of the latest Arctic sea ice age data from Mark Tschudi:

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crandles

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1402 on: December 16, 2016, 01:11:06 AM »
week 47 for 2015 and 2016 attached.

Older ice moved to North to North East of Greenland rather than N of CAA

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1403 on: December 16, 2016, 02:06:51 AM »
Jim Williams,

You can get the raw precip data or plotted charts of the data here at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

Super cool page to bookmark especially since there are other variables that one can derive data for, like temps, winds, etc and at various altitudes.  To select the settings for the page just read the how-to paragraph at the top of the page.

Thanks!

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1404 on: December 16, 2016, 10:00:37 AM »
Wow, just look at that 4-5-year-old ice getting obliterated!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1405 on: December 16, 2016, 10:41:18 AM »
week 47 for 2015 and 2016 attached.

To clarify matters a bit, here are the original frames:

[Edit - The cropped versions are clearer!]
« Last Edit: December 16, 2016, 10:48:42 AM by Jim Hunt »
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skanky

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1406 on: December 16, 2016, 10:59:45 AM »
Some people might find the first part of this post interesting, and maybe worth following up there:
http://planet3.org/2016/12/15/day-4-at-agu-productive-self-doubt-and-healthy-retraction/

(the rest is interesting but OT in this thread)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1407 on: December 16, 2016, 11:13:03 AM »
Thanks Skanky:

Quote
In short, my idea was that the current Arctic warmth could simply be accounted for by advection of anomalous heat in the upper ocean. I have enormous respect for Dr. Trenberth, going back to the days when I frequently had occasion to cite his papers. Because of the nature of the question and the nature of his expertise, I was fairly certain he’d say either “of course” or “of course not”.

I need to add that Simon Donner had earlier argued “I really don’t think so” on this very question.

And I understand why. Despite its explanatory power, I have had real doubts since discussing this idea with Simon. The time scale actually, is too short, which alone is enough to settle it. Trenberth was categorically negative. So no. My theory is bollocks. Please ignore it.
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romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1408 on: December 16, 2016, 02:06:10 PM »
Northern Greenland this morning (Cape Morris Jesup). Lot of new cracks have appeared overnight and the whole thing of old ice moves towards Fram Strait. There is only small ice bridge left over Lincoln Sea and lot of wind and low pressure just coming in.

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1409 on: December 16, 2016, 02:37:00 PM »
Northern Greenland this morning (Cape Morris Jesup). Lot of new cracks have appeared overnight and the whole thing of old ice moves towards Fram Strait. There is only small ice bridge left over Lincoln Sea and lot of wind and low pressure just coming in.
Scary photo.

bairgon

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1410 on: December 16, 2016, 03:48:14 PM »
That movement is possibly related to storms coming up from the south.

See an animation of this at https://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=hrpt&area=dfo&type=ir. Set the start time back as far as possible.

The "bridge" between the Lincoln Sea polynya and the ice moving down the Fram looks like it will disappear soon.

I found the original paper "Drainage of Multi-Year Sea Ice from the Lincoln Sea" Agnew, 1998 at http://cmosarchives.ca/Bulletin/b2604.pdf - page 7. A "very strong" event in 1989-1990 is discussed, with about 22,500km2 of loss. Seems to me that we are at that level now, with much more to go.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2016, 04:52:09 PM by bairgon »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1411 on: December 16, 2016, 03:49:57 PM »
Snapshot of today from animation posted a day or two ago.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1412 on: December 16, 2016, 04:10:19 PM »
Bering Sea cyclone 960 mb. Animation at site below.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_of_the_day/
« Last Edit: December 16, 2016, 04:17:21 PM by Tigertown »
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1413 on: December 16, 2016, 04:11:01 PM »
Some people might find the first part of this post interesting, and maybe worth following up there:
http://planet3.org/2016/12/15/day-4-at-agu-productive-self-doubt-and-healthy-retraction/

(the rest is interesting but OT in this thread)

The rest is very relevant to abrupt SLR and Antarctic glaciation and sea ice. Wow. I strongly recommend that everyone reads it. It looks like Hansen is right about rapid SLR.

What has become clear to me with regards to the question of ocean vs atmosphere in the NH sea ice melting is that in its present phase the atmospheric warming is in synch with the ocean warming. The global sea surface heat patterns support Rossby wave patterns that advect atmospheric heat into the Arctic. The storm track into the Arctic from the Atlantic then advects oceanic heat into the Arctic. Heat in the Barents sea reinforces the atmospheric warming.

The process that stops the stops the self-reinforcing pattern is rapid ice melt, especially Greenland ice melt. The cold fresh water layer puts a lid on the heat.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1414 on: December 16, 2016, 05:14:09 PM »
Wow, just look at that 4-5-year-old ice getting obliterated!

Yes, I didn't realize that the "Big Block" was 5+ year sea ice! I also didn't see the spectacular CAB compression that happened beginning around 2016 week 30  very good graphic there.

In writing that, I recall the crazy cracking this year that spread all the way across North Greenland.  This seems to have allowed for more peripheral melting due to ice movement (stirring thermoclines and forcing under-ice melt) which allowed for more ease of movement of floes both away from the land fasting on the Western Hemisphere side as well as central compression within the CAB.

Great vid Jim!

P.S.

Has anyone considered what effect a lack of ice grounding against Svalbard will have on increased Fram Straight export speeds?
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marcel_g

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1415 on: December 16, 2016, 05:27:44 PM »
Some people might find the first part of this post interesting, and maybe worth following up there:
http://planet3.org/2016/12/15/day-4-at-agu-productive-self-doubt-and-healthy-retraction/

(the rest is interesting but OT in this thread)

The rest is very relevant to abrupt SLR and Antarctic glaciation and sea ice. Wow. I strongly recommend that everyone reads it. It looks like Hansen is right about rapid SLR.

<snip>

The process that stops the stops the self-reinforcing pattern is rapid ice melt, especially Greenland ice melt. The cold fresh water layer puts a lid on the heat.

Very interesting indeed Fish, but there's a photo of a chart in that article that shows what looks like Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) for three of the UN climate change scenarios, and while that chart shows that abrupt sea level rise starting around 2060 for RCP 8.5, that line only goes to 0.64 +/- 0.49m by 2100, which is no where close to the possibilities that Hansen is talking about. If I remember correctly, Hansen was talking about something like meters over decades, so 3m or more by 2100.

Maybe that chart is out of context though, maybe it's only talking about sea level contributions by specific parts of Antarctica or something like that. That level of contribution seems really low for any scenario, as I thought the current conservative estimates put us at 1-2m by 2100.

I also hope you're right about a colder freshwater lens putting a brake on the melting process. Less surface melting and hydrofracturing seems like a plausible mechanism for slowing it down, even though it seems to be accelerating right now.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1416 on: December 16, 2016, 05:35:45 PM »
Via Lars Kaleschke:

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/SMOS/Satellite_cousins_have_ice_covered

Quote
Although not designed to deliver information on ice, ESA’s Earth Explorer SMOS satellite can detect thin sea-ice. Since its cousin, CryoSat, is better at measuring thicker ice scientists have found a way of using these missions together to yield an even clearer picture of the changing Arctic.

Needs a click to animate:
« Last Edit: December 16, 2016, 08:05:00 PM by Jim Hunt »
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1417 on: December 16, 2016, 05:42:46 PM »
WRT: 
Quote
Whatever is warming the Arctic, the extra energy enters the Arctic basin from the sky, not from the ocean in any direct way. It’s irreducibly more complicated than that.

http://planet3.org/2016/12/15/day-4-at-agu-productive-self-doubt-and-healthy-retraction/



the Eocene Model Intercomparison Project (EoMIP) has some interesting results that show an equitable climate happening at much lower CO2 ECS values, simply by changing the cloud reflectivity parameter.

Your assumptions of stability are not correct.  Nor are your assumptions regarding a paleoclimate analog to todays values.  This is due to the radical change in atmospheric forcing compared to sea surface temperatures.  We have never had a 100-year transformation of our planet's climate, perhaps outside of meteor impact.

reference:  http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130123
The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?
Sagoo, N. et al. (2013) 16 September 2013.DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2013.0123

Quote
abstract: Geological data for the Early Eocene (56–47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data–model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called ‘equable climate problem’. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not ‘prove’ that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7°C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26°C±0.69°C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

The permutation that caused the equitable climate at 560ppmv and with a Charney Sens. of 2.7°C was cloud based.

I believe that it is very likely that we are starting to see this kind of atmospheric circulation shift toward equitable climates now. 

Some more reference here:  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,92.msg7606.html#msg7606

and here:  http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130093
Sensitivity of the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum climate to cloud properties
Jeffrey T. Kiehl, Christine A. Shields
Published 16 September 2013.DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2013.0093
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wili

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1418 on: December 16, 2016, 06:13:49 PM »
Interesting points, jm. I believe the accurate term, though, is "equable climate" not "equitable."
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1419 on: December 16, 2016, 06:16:57 PM »
Northern Greenland this morning (Cape Morris Jesup). Lot of new cracks have appeared overnight and the whole thing of old ice moves towards Fram Strait. There is only small ice bridge left over Lincoln Sea and lot of wind and low pressure just coming in.
Scary photo.
Cracking events, even this time of year, not unusual.  Cracking to this extent, unusual.

Bering Sea cyclone 960 mb. Animation at site below.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_of_the_day/


Yup, the Cyclone cannons are running at full bore.  On the opposite side, GFS shows a series of storms bombing out down to under 950mb, and roaring up along the east coast of Greenland over the next few days, dragging huge trains of warm humid air into high latitudes.  120 hours or so out Climate Reanalyzer has most of 80N at at around +20C above normal.

This is about the time last year that we started seeing the most dramatic anomalies in temperature.  It appears this year will be no different in that regard from last, except in so far as this year we started off the season with earlier anomalies, and what heat is arriving now, is worse.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1420 on: December 16, 2016, 06:24:18 PM »
By my thumb-nail guestimation, these DMI temperatures suggest to me ice thickening across the higher latitudes of the Arctic has been reduced by a full meter.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1421 on: December 16, 2016, 07:15:22 PM »
It seems Neven is too busy or bashful to mention this in here, so I'll take the liberty. He gets top billing above Sir David Attenborough on the following podcast from CBC:

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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1422 on: December 16, 2016, 07:43:54 PM »
Zack Labe:  Like a broken record, but a testament to the anomalous conditions in the Arctic. Now 186 days of record low sea ice extent in 2016 (53% YTD)
https://twitter.com/zlabe/status/809794646683492352
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romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1423 on: December 16, 2016, 08:39:16 PM »
Just 6.5 hours later new cracks have emerged. "Bridge" is now about 15% thinner.
I'm using webpage: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/morrisjessup.uk.php


jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1424 on: December 16, 2016, 08:58:47 PM »
Northern Greenland this morning (Cape Morris Jesup). Lot of new cracks have appeared overnight and the whole thing of old ice moves towards Fram Strait. There is only small ice bridge left over Lincoln Sea and lot of wind and low pressure just coming in.

This is what happens when you pull on a brittle rope.

as the Atlantic wind shear moves further up the Fram the fractured multi-year ice will be successively flushed out the Fram.

three hours from now:  https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/12/16/2100Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-1.20,79.93,1874/loc=-9.323,80.435  (16 km/hr surface winds)

three hours from now + 24 hours:  https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/12/17/2100Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-1.20,79.93,1874/loc=-9.323,80.435 (38 km/hr surface winds)

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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1425 on: December 16, 2016, 10:32:02 PM »
Just found this:

http://www.seaice.dk/latest/todays-sentinel1-n-3daymos.jpg

Appears to be radar images assembled over time from sentinel-1.

Below find an image of the ice around FJL, and the top of Greenland.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1426 on: December 16, 2016, 10:43:19 PM »
Things could be worse. This is from early December 2012:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1427 on: December 16, 2016, 10:48:49 PM »
Just found this:

http://www.seaice.dk/latest/todays-sentinel1-n-3daymos.jpg

Appears to be radar images assembled over time from sentinel-1.

Below find an image of the ice around FJL, and the top of Greenland.
Whoa that s a nice finding. This has really great resolution

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1428 on: December 16, 2016, 10:53:25 PM »
yesterdays is also available:  http://www.seaice.dk/latest/yesterdays-sentinel1-n-3daymos.jpg

here is the animation (click to animate)

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romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1429 on: December 16, 2016, 10:58:52 PM »
This is a good overview, shows lot of Fram Strait export (compare today vs yesterday picture).

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1430 on: December 17, 2016, 01:04:36 AM »
My own personal 2016 Arctic Record Report Card:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/12/december-2016-arctic-report-card/

A long litany of record high temperatures and record low sea ice. Here's CryoSat-2 thickness for comparison with the ice age maps above:

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jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1431 on: December 17, 2016, 01:48:08 AM »
Things could be worse. This is from early December 2012:
Truth, Jim, but even with the gaps we see in the 2013 image, I'm not so sure this year's image actually isn't worse.  The much more granular size leaves the pack far more vulnerable to weather I think.

My own personal 2016 Arctic Record Report Card:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/12/december-2016-arctic-report-card/

A long litany of record high temperatures and record low sea ice. Here's CryoSat-2 thickness for comparison with the ice age maps above:
Edit/Addendum:   Yup, I go back to my upper point; that 2013 ice wasn't all powering out the Fram, and wasn't dragging the lions share of thickest multi-year ice with it.

It's like a rock type called arkose - a "not quite conglomerate" rough granular sedimentary rock with angular grains, frequently containing larger fragments of more durable rock in the softer more friable matrix.

It doesn't stand up well, literally, and in that, is a metaphor for how well the pack is standing up to forces being applied to it.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2016, 01:55:11 AM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1432 on: December 17, 2016, 02:00:09 AM »
Just 6.5 hours later new cracks have emerged. "Bridge" is now about 15% thinner.
I'm using webpage: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/morrisjessup.uk.php


What is really amazing about this photo is it suggests that the Nares could very well be open for business all winter long as no arch will form.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1433 on: December 17, 2016, 02:03:10 AM »
What's worse this year is that much of the thickest ice is headed out the Fram and all of the thick ice has been sheared and shattered over the past year. We watched the most solid ice, big block, melt out in the Beaufort last summer. Most of the ice looks like it's gone through a blender and is ready to have tequila poured over it.

The low ice concentration near the Fram in 2012 was actually a good sign - the ice was building back up in the Beaufort gyre, not flowing out the Fram.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1434 on: December 17, 2016, 02:16:02 AM »
Atlantic side low projected at 951mb in a couple days.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1435 on: December 17, 2016, 05:43:09 AM »
I don't know much so this is probably a stupid observation but the entire polar portion of the northern hemisphere is dominated by numerous lows while being circled by highs in the mid-latitudes. Is this a normal condition?

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1436 on: December 17, 2016, 06:16:50 AM »
Just found this:

http://www.seaice.dk/latest/todays-sentinel1-n-3daymos.jpg

Appears to be radar images assembled over time from sentinel-1.

Below find an image of the ice around FJL, and the top of Greenland.
Whoa that s a nice finding. This has really great resolution
Romett1 gave me the hint.  I just followed the breadcrumbs back to the originating source of the radar images they posted.
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bairgon

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1437 on: December 17, 2016, 09:23:12 AM »
Recent freezing progress as shown on the NSIDC arctic chart (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/) has been above average. From a mid-November deviation from average of about 4 standard deviations, it appears to be now around 3 SDs.

Looking at the Sea Ice extent charts and comparing with the November ice extent chart, one major difference is that Hudson Bay has mostly frozen. Hudson Bay has an area of 1.23 million km2, and it appears to be about 80% frozen. There has been 1.53 million km2 freeze since 1st December, so perhaps 2/3rds of that is from Hudson Bay.

Therefore my guess is that within a week or so there will be a change in the freeze progress, and we will see a change similar to the 2012 chart with much slower freeze rate to the peak next year. This is when we will see the true effect of the export of fractured ice through Fram and lack of freeze in the Chukchi Sea.

werther

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1438 on: December 17, 2016, 09:45:09 AM »
"... the entire polar portion of the northern hemisphere is dominated by numerous lows while being circled by highs in the mid-latitudes. Is this a normal condition?"

SH, hi,
No season is an exact copy of earlier years nor of the climo mean. But this freezing season is quite anomalous:



I've introduced red arrows to show anomalous wind directions.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1439 on: December 17, 2016, 10:49:07 AM »
Not very far off topic, Collin Maessen's video of the "Stand Up For Science" rally outside AGU last week:



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Out of the labs and into the streets?
« Last Edit: December 17, 2016, 02:16:26 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Tealight

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1440 on: December 17, 2016, 12:40:07 PM »
I don't know much so this is probably a stupid observation but the entire polar portion of the northern hemisphere is dominated by numerous lows while being circled by highs in the mid-latitudes. Is this a normal condition?

As far as I understand it is exactly the opposite of normal conditions. The polar cell should create high pressure at the poles and low pressure in mid latitudes. It looks like the Hadley cell has increased its reach from 30-40N to 40-50N. The Ferrel cell then increased its reach from 60-70N to 70-80N and constantly disrupts the polar cell.

I'm sure this has happend before, but with climate change this could become the new normal.



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/how-weather-works/global-circulation-patterns

dnem

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1441 on: December 17, 2016, 01:42:40 PM »
The overall increase in storminess and moisture is the most surprising and interesting thing I have learned about the arctic since I started coming to this site. Before I started closely following the arctic, I was well aware of both albedo and carbon feedbacks in the arctic.  But I had in no way considered this entire issue of increased open water>increased storminess>increased mixing and upwelling>increased cloudiness>decreased heat loss to space>increased open water>increased storminess>...

As someone has put it here a couple of times, the arctic is transitioning from an ice-covered desert to a stormy ocean.  I don't think many out there "in the real world" appreciate, or are even aware of, the magnitude and importance of this change.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1442 on: December 17, 2016, 02:51:29 PM »
Given the very slow freeze, particularly in the Barents, Kara and Bering, the new stormy regime in the Arctic, the resulting thin ice at the end of this freeze and the impact that these storms will have, I predict a record early end to and record low max for this freeze season.

crandles

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1443 on: December 17, 2016, 03:09:30 PM »
Given the very slow freeze, particularly in the Barents, Kara and Bering, the new stormy regime in the Arctic, the resulting thin ice at the end of this freeze and the impact that these storms will have, I predict a record early end to and record low max for this freeze season.

If the extent is not a record low, then I think the early max is sensible because there will be of a lot of thin ice around the edges with low albedo.

If the extent stays really low then the ice edge is generally further north and it takes until a later date for the sun to reach an adequate angle to hold the ice edge in check.

I have tried this argument for a later max date with lower extent a few times and there seems no evidence for it. So it seems it needs an argument the other way. Not sure if the above late large extent gain means thin low albedo ice might be what is needed for the hypothesis to work out when checked.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1444 on: December 17, 2016, 04:06:14 PM »
That makes sense but I'm thinking the increasingly stormy weather, mobility of the thin ice and mixing of colder waters and deeper warmer waters in the peripheral seas may be sufficient to stall SIE increase until the sun can begin to do its work.

crandles

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1445 on: December 17, 2016, 04:57:32 PM »
You may well be right SH. More upward heat flux would sound like a recipe for stopping freeze season earlier.

Mobility of more thin ice. Hmm does that increase extent while reducing area? Also are we talking of timing of area or extent maximum?


jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1446 on: December 17, 2016, 07:30:45 PM »
with a super positive Arctic Oscillation, there is still (now and near-term) a TON of precipitable water vapor moving into the Arctic Basin from the Atlantic side (over Svalbard)  in this link you can clearly see the "ladder" effect of stacked high and low pressure systems moving mid-latitude water vapor (that is actually originating from the anomalously warm Gulf of Mexico) up and over Iceland, through to Svalbard and into the CAB)  projection is for 2 days from today.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/12/19/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-91.61,91.93,568/loc=131.694,83.815

This is a similar effect to what we have seen earlier, driving anomalously high Arctic temps all Winter.  (h/t to @Zlabe ) 
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romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1447 on: December 17, 2016, 07:32:43 PM »
Jai mitchell, thanks for the animation. Here is the new one. First image is 15 Dec and second is 17 Dec. Look how much old ice is moving towards Fram Strait. Also ice edge is moving further towards north away from Svalbard, some 15 - 20 km in two days.

ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1448 on: December 17, 2016, 08:36:05 PM »
Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Dec 16, 2016:
  Climatology:1787.3
  2016:            944.3
  Anomaly:       -843



Implied new ice thickness to date:
  Per Lebedev:
  Climo: 1.269 m
  2016:   0.871 m

Per Billelo
  Climo:  1.024 m
  2016:    0.707 m

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1449 on: December 17, 2016, 09:33:12 PM »
 ;)

that looks good rom, I was going to make one but the updated file had some area that did not update from yesterday (most of the fram area) not sure why.  I figure that the real movement will begin today through the 19th.  we shall see. . .interesting times.
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