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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1550 on: December 23, 2016, 09:25:19 AM »
The front not only melted back somewhat but it appears the damage is not over yet. The thinnest part of the front as of right now is about 35 cm. On the 14th, the ice in the area was over 40 cm. By the 28th of this month, it is forecast to be about 24 cm.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1551 on: December 23, 2016, 09:45:07 AM »
I went ahead and moved up each step of thickness and sampled. I went closer to the North pole each time, and away from FJL. The last one was practically on the Pole.
Edit: I double and triple checked the second one here, which is the third step up in thickness. The average loss in that area is around 35 cm's thickness, or will be by end of the month.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 09:57:14 AM by Tigertown »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1552 on: December 23, 2016, 10:52:26 AM »
I went ahead and moved up each step of thickness and sampled. I went closer to the North pole each time, and away from FJL. The last one was practically on the Pole.
Edit: I double and triple checked the second one here, which is the third step up in thickness. The average loss in that area is around 35 cm's thickness, or will be by end of the month.

Wow thats a really nice work Tigertown. I wonder if we could do a comparison in January with PIOMAS output. I can try to extract the temporal series from those fixes or near enough (the PIOMAS output is hellish, requiring for its post-processing to compile and run some Fortran code, but I think this event deserves it)
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 11:00:33 AM by seaicesailor »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1553 on: December 23, 2016, 11:08:19 AM »
I wonder if climatologists/meteorologists will end up putting a name to this atmospheric conveyor belt from the tropics to the Pole. "El Niño Atlantico" after all it is Christmas

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1554 on: December 23, 2016, 11:51:05 AM »
Amazing analysis. Is Topaz considered a reliable source for thickness?

romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1555 on: December 23, 2016, 11:55:34 AM »
Latest update - the block has now moved almost 200 km in 8 days. For reference, i created line between Svalbard and Greenland (as A-Team pointed out, the distance is 434 km). Otherwise lot of heat for Pacific side (Dec 30 forecast, Climate Reanalyzer) + stormy and warm Atlantic front.

logicmanPatrick

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1556 on: December 23, 2016, 12:03:54 PM »
A weather buoy near the North Pole just hit melting point
This is bad.
BEC CREW
23 DEC 2016
Quote
According to The Washington Post, preliminary data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre indicate that the Arctic lost about 148,000 square kilometres (57,000 square miles) of ice in the past 24 hours.

That's enough ice to cover the entire state of Illinois.

While these figures still need to be independently confirmed, we do know that sea ice off the coasts of both Antarctica and the Arctic hit record lows in November. As of December 4, we’d lost 3.76 million square kilometres of the stuff - more than the total area of India.

"If nothing is done to slow climate change, by the time global warming reaches 2°C (3.6°F), events like this winter would become common at the North Pole, happening every few years," said research organisation, Climate Central.
http://www.sciencealert.com/a-weather-buoy-near-the-north-pole-just-hit-melting-point

I am 70 yrs old.  I remember that winters long ago here in Kent UK were regularly quite severe.  It was rare to see snow before Christmas, but boy!  The rain and fog!  Post Christmas I would regularly walk to school on snow and ice.  It is now about 10 years since I saw any significant amount of snow on my patch.  As to rain, we have seen little this year: as to fog, zero, zilch, nada.  As I type these words it is like a typical early spring day.  In fact, I plan to do some cyling while the sun shines.

I am reminded of the words of a Christmas carol -

In the bleak mid winter
  frosty winds made moan
earth stood hard as iron
  water like a stone
snow had fallen, snow on snow
  snow on snow
in the bleak mid winter
  long ago.

Long ago indeed.

Happy Christmas everybody, or if that offends your religious sensibilities, Happy Holidays!
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1557 on: December 23, 2016, 12:35:14 PM »
Amazing analysis. Is Topaz considered a reliable source for thickness?

The people behind CMEMS have been doing what they do for a long time. Right now their data is from Sentinel-1, which I am no expert on.
https://sentinel.esa.int/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-1/news/-/article/sentinel-1-data-advance-sea-ice-monitoring

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1558 on: December 23, 2016, 12:53:51 PM »
@seaicesailor; Do you mean you are gonna have to write some do loops, because that's about all I remember about Fortran. Anyway, enjoy.

@logicmanPatrick; I feel bad about the buoy melting. Maybe they can replace it. ;)  Anyway, on a more serious note, though a little short of fifty, I remember upsidedown icycles sprouting out of the ground in the winter time here. That seems like a lifetime ago. If it gets cold here now, it is only for a night or two, and sporadic at that.

logicmanPatrick

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1559 on: December 23, 2016, 12:58:51 PM »
Quote
I feel bad about the buoy melting.

Tigertown: the ambiguity was lost on me until I saw your post.  PET - 255 deg.  Ouch!   ;D
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1560 on: December 23, 2016, 02:33:33 PM »
A weather buoy near the North Pole just hit melting point

The BEC Crew are a little vague about which buoy supposedly "registered 0.4 degrees Celsius". One assumes they are talking about this one?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg97349.html#msg97349
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1561 on: December 23, 2016, 03:25:34 PM »

logicmanPatrick
What is the melting point for sea-ice in air?

Jim Hunt
Would it be at the yellow end of that movement path on the map, or the red end?

Thanks.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1562 on: December 23, 2016, 03:38:35 PM »
Quote
which buoy?
The WaPo story not only names the buoy (300234064010010) but links to buoy data pages. It is at 88.87ºN as last reported.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/22/weather-buoy-near-north-pole-hits-melting-point/?utm_term=.399b0acfe129

Here's another fabulous Twitter resource for Arctic meteorology. Unfortunately there seems no way to link to, or capture, these html5 animations (which are obligatory on Twitter and actually MP4 files) for forum purposes (which allows mpg files).

https://twitter.com/MetmanJames/media

Here is the last 24 hours of total precipitable water (link in previous TPW post), yet another arm has been ejected. The global view, embedded in the lower right corner, shows the origin and causation story goes far beyond the Caribbean and involves the overall equatorial circulation.

be cause

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1563 on: December 23, 2016, 04:32:59 PM »
thanks A-team for yet more brilliant animations .. yours and these twitter ones . I have been following this low since it was south of the Aleutian Islands a week ago .. here in Northern Ireland we are seeing much of our weather tracking further North this Autumn .. heading for the Arctic . 25 sunny days in November is not our norm . Looks like HP will be back in a few days .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1564 on: December 23, 2016, 04:39:02 PM »
Would it be at the yellow end of that movement path on the map, or the red end?

The most recent position is at the red/brown end of the line on the map, as per the legend at the top.

Regarding your other question, perhaps you should also be wondering about the melting point of snow, since that's what's in contact with the suddenly warm air?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1565 on: December 23, 2016, 04:42:08 PM »
The WaPo story not only names the buoy (300234064010010) but links to buoy data pages. It is at 88.87ºN as last reported.

That buoy reported a maximum temperature of 0.0 precisely though. The 0.4 is merely journalistic licence?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1566 on: December 23, 2016, 04:55:35 PM »
Quote
anybody know a good way to link to, or capture, these html5 twitter animations to gifs or mpgs that we can post here?
Here is one done with a free timed screen capture app called licecap. Outcome is ok, not great as it can skip some frames. However cropping is done in the set-up frame which helps reduce file size.

Here is the link to that buoy table, data is attached: it seems show a patch of positives peaking at +0.8ºC (far right column, Ta).

http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_table.html

300234064010010     2016     21     00     320.875     320.875     88.57500     60.26960     982.60     -1.90     0.80
300234064010010     2016     22     00     320.917     320.917     88.58100     60.36440     983.10     -1.90     0.40
300234064010010     2016     23     00     320.958     320.958     88.58640     60.42400     983.40     -1.90     0.00
300234064010010     2016     00     01     321.001     321.001     88.59160     60.46720     983.60     -1.80     0.20
300234064010010     2016     01     00     321.042     321.042     88.59660     60.50100     983.50     -1.80     0.40
300234064010010     2016     02     00     321.083     321.083     88.60180     60.54280     983.40     -1.80     0.40
300234064010010     2016     03     00     321.125     321.125     88.60720     60.60960     983.50     -1.80     0.40
300234064010010     2016     04     00     321.167     321.167     88.61260     60.69440     983.50     -1.80     0.40
300234064010010     2016     05     00     321.208     321.208     88.61780     60.81420     983.60     -1.80     0.10
300234064010010     2016     06     01     321.251     321.251     88.62300     61.04820     984.50     -1.80     -3.40
300234064010010     2016     07     00     321.292     321.292     88.62780     61.32060     985.20     -1.80     -4.50
300234064010010     2016     08     00     321.333     321.333     88.63140     61.62320     986.20     -1.80     -6.60
300234064010010     2016     09     01     321.376     321.376     88.63400     61.94100     987.40     -1.80     -7.10
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 05:13:21 PM by A-Team »

Wipneus

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1567 on: December 23, 2016, 05:26:01 PM »
Quote
a good way to link to, or capture, these html5 twitter animations to gifs or mpgs that we can post here?
Here is one done with a free timed screen capture app called licecap. Outcome is ok, not great as it can skip some frames. However cropping is done in the set-up frame which helps reduce file size.


Here is another,

step 1, get the url of the mp4 file and download it:

wget https:\/\/video.twimg.com\/tweet_video\/C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.mp4

step 2:

ffmpeg extracts the different frames:

ffmpeg -i C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.mp4 output%05d.png

step 3:

assemble to animated gif with ImageMagick:

convert -delay 20 output000* +map C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.gif

result attached.


A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1568 on: December 23, 2016, 05:29:26 PM »
Quote
html5 2 gif 2 forum

Thx, wip. Is that C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.mp4 business visible on the twitter source page? Oh never mind, they have it obfuscated as C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.jpg. QuickTime can take it from there to gif.

style="padding-bottom: 89.05325443786982%; background-image:url('https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.jpg')">

Let's see if https:video.twimg.com/tweet_video/C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.mp4 or [a href="https:video.twimg.com/tweet_video/C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.mp4"]https:video.twimg.com/tweet_video/C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.mp4[/a>] or <a href="https:video.twimg.com/tweet_video/C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.mp4">https:video.twimg.com/tweet_video/C0XNSGRW8AAzj3u.mp4</a>will open it directly within a forum page. No, but opens in a new browser tab or .mpg attachment (but not mp4) after conversion.

MIMIC-TPW provides a 72 hour version of both 'global' and 'Europe' as rolling html5 mpgs, strongly recommended. Except, despite the menu options, only the 48 hr is provided.

There is a archive of pngs for November and December with easy ftp access, important for winter storm context. This amounts to a great many hourly scenes so a lot of layers and an animation that would be too large for the forum.

Some tricks that might make this work: take 3, 4, or 6 scenes per day to limit file numbers; crop to our interests to reduce size; pass into 6- or 7-bit indexed color; optimize for gif by differencing from baseline; rescale to smaller width; use licecap on the gimp player, etc.

Be great to have a script that could be the global in the corner of the europe as above on a rolling basis.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=global2&timespan=72hrs&anim=anigf

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=europe&timespan=72hrs&anim=anigf
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 08:26:37 PM by A-Team »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1569 on: December 23, 2016, 06:19:39 PM »
Here is the link to that buoy table, data is attached: it seems show a patch of positives peaking at +0.8ºC (far right column, Ta).

That's from day 320 though. The previous "spike".

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

aslan

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1570 on: December 23, 2016, 10:34:22 PM »



Not to mention another interesting side effect of the big North Atlantic low:



https://twitter.com/GaetanHeymes/status/812402581704179713

Waves of 15.4 meters, 6 floors, high...



aslan

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1571 on: December 23, 2016, 10:38:54 PM »
Here is the link to that buoy table, data is attached: it seems show a patch of positives peaking at +0.8ºC (far right column, Ta).

That's from day 320 though. The previous "spike".



Yep, 300234064010010 reached only 0.0°C I think. But another buoy, 300234062788480, reached 0.4°C being at 86.8336°N, 300234064015020 reached 0.8°C being at 87.568°N and 300234064011000 reached 0.2°C being at 88.3142°N if I'm not mistaken.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 10:44:24 PM by aslan »

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1572 on: December 23, 2016, 10:45:44 PM »
Quote
That's from day 320 though. The previous "spike". Exactly 0.0º
Well, no doubt someone fit the best curve through 300234064010010's data points in some second-order least square bezier sense. These are not Walmart thermometers but carefully calibrated with known response to changing conditions.

You can see from the graph that it has lots of 'upward momentum' as the hour approaches the 0.0ºC that should carry it up and over. Fitting is free online to any order polynomial you want -- can't miss as they're dense in the space of differentiable functions under compact-open topology.

People don't just connect the dots anymore. That went out the door shortly after CF Gauss
nailed the reappearance of Ceres in December 1801 which involved both the invention of gaussian error distribution and the fast fourier transform:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Friedrich_Gauss#Astronomy

Meanwhile, wow, 6x reduction in file size going from differenced low bit depth gif to mp2 to mpg. Let's see if this is a rainmaker for Total Precipitable Water: yes and no, forum software won't visibly display a movie. The file is ok except the tool time-reversed it. 65 frames 600x600 pxls --> 1 MB file meaning the 537 back to Dec 1st would be under 10 MB and load on forum. It might display if uploaded elsewhere (dropbox, google drive?) and then linked in here.

https://cloudconvert.com/gif-to-anything
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 01:33:33 AM by A-Team »

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1573 on: December 23, 2016, 11:31:44 PM »



Not to mention another interesting side effect of the big North Atlantic low:



https://twitter.com/GaetanHeymes/status/812402581704179713

Waves of 15.4 meters, 6 floors, high...

It is really incredible (at least for me)!!! Not an earthquake involved? Just a cold front?

19-meter wave sets new record - highest significant wave height measured by a buoy
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/19-meter-wave-sets-new-record-highest-significant-wave-height-measured-buoy
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Iain

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1574 on: December 24, 2016, 07:38:51 AM »
The extraordinary warmth in the arctic, specifically at a well known location - the North Pole and on a memorable date - Christmas Eve,  is featured among the Headlines on the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38417198

It also got a couple of lines in the headlines summary on the FtV TV "Breakfast" programme.

"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

6roucho

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1575 on: December 24, 2016, 08:03:54 AM »

It is really incredible (at least for me)!!! Not an earthquake involved? Just a cold front?

19-meter wave sets new record - highest significant wave height measured by a buoy
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/19-meter-wave-sets-new-record-highest-significant-wave-height-measured-buoy

19m is remarkable. Since significant height is the average of the highest third of the waves, there were presumably even higher individual waves in the series?

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1576 on: December 24, 2016, 08:08:03 AM »
I've been waiting for numbers in IJIS but Espen's obviously off enjoying the holidays.  I pulled down the numbers and checked myself (lazy butt I am, should have done that first).  JAX/IJIS is down 93K over the last two days.

I believe the storm has made itself felt.
This space for Rent.

aslan

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1577 on: December 24, 2016, 11:43:27 AM »

It is really incredible (at least for me)!!! Not an earthquake involved? Just a cold front?

19-meter wave sets new record - highest significant wave height measured by a buoy
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/19-meter-wave-sets-new-record-highest-significant-wave-height-measured-buoy

Nop, no tsunami ^^ Only the storm Barbara. This was measured off the coast of Norway, so near the sea ice waves were smaller, around 2 to 5 meters probably, but it gives you a sense of what a powerful low can do.



And of course it is a positive feedback loop. Low sea ice increase the fetch and reduced the resistance of the ice to waves, which enhanced the consequences of big waves crashing against the sea ice front.

Quote
19m is remarkable. Since significant height is the average of the highest third of the waves, there were presumably even higher individual waves in the series?

Yep. Waves of 20 - 30 meters are not unheard of, but are rare of course. North Atlantic is known for its deep lows (in 1993, the Baer Storm bottoms out around 915 hPa...) and big waves, sometimes greater than 20 meters.

aslan

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1578 on: December 24, 2016, 11:49:45 AM »

It is really incredible (at least for me)!!! Not an earthquake involved? Just a cold front?

19-meter wave sets new record - highest significant wave height measured by a buoy
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/19-meter-wave-sets-new-record-highest-significant-wave-height-measured-buoy

Nop, no tsunami ^^ Only the storm Barbara. This was measured off the coast of Norway, so near the sea ice waves were smaller, around 2 to 5 meters probably, but it gives you a sense of what a powerful low can do. And waves this high will produce a long swell which is also a big problem for sea ice. Swells from Barbara produced near Norway are now reaching sea ice and with a high swell period (more than 20 seconds). The very long fetch due to low sea ice will allows the swell to be well developed with very very long wave periods, which can bring quite energetics waves to say the least : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swell_(ocean)#Swell_and_coastal_impacts



And of course it is a positive feedback loop. Low sea ice increase the fetch and reduced the resistance of the ice to waves, which enhanced the consequences of big waves crashing against the sea ice front.

Quote
19m is remarkable. Since significant height is the average of the highest third of the waves, there were presumably even higher individual waves in the series?

Yep. Waves of 20 - 30 meters are not unheard of, but are rare of course. North Atlantic is known for its deep lows (in 1993, the Baer Storm bottoms out around 915 hPa...) and big waves, sometimes greater than 20 meters.

romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1579 on: December 24, 2016, 11:50:12 AM »
Latest from University of Bremen, how much ice has retreated in just 8 days.

Seumas

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1580 on: December 24, 2016, 11:59:49 AM »

Only the storm Barbara. This was measured off the coast of Norway

Off the coast of Norway?! Actually just north-west of me, off the Outer Hebrides (Scotland).

Roughly where the marker is in the attached image:

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1581 on: December 24, 2016, 01:02:13 PM »
19m is remarkable. Since significant height is the average of the highest third of the waves, there were presumably even higher individual waves in the series?

Quite so. See the MSW analysis linked to at:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg96622.html#msg96622
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1582 on: December 24, 2016, 03:11:46 PM »
I believe the storm has made itself felt.

The leads at the head of Nares have collapsed indicating that the ice has not formed a rigid bridge between Greenland and Ellesmere.

Compare NOAA picture from 23rd Dec at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/201612231322.NOAA.jpg with the most recent clear picture from 19th Dec at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/201612191227.NOAA.jpg

The Sentinel 1 pictures of the straight show that export is still happening: 22nd Dec at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20161222s01a.ASAR.jpg vs 23rd Dec at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20161223s01a.ASAR.jpg shows movement down the channel, particularly on the northern side.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1583 on: December 24, 2016, 03:47:27 PM »
These winter storms affect Arctic ice in two important ways, first at 'ground level' in the form of mechanical wave action on the ice edge, wind pushing the ice pack poleward and compacting it, upward mixing of warmer previously stratified layers, air too warm for seasonal bottom freezing of ice, and possibly precipitation in the form of insulating snow or even rain.

The second effect is advection of an atmospheric moisture column in from far to the south. This impacts the heat budget of the Arctic Ocean more subtly in the form of heat-trapping clouds and water vapor that re-radiate back down longwave radiation the ocean is trying to give off, warming the air over the ice and preconditioning the next melt season by keeping open water from cooling.

The effect of storms on heat budget involves many complicated and intertwined feedbacks, the daily data for which are not as accessible or intuitively understandable as pictures of ice extent etc. Fortunately for us, Boisvert et al have unravelled this, including clouds, using the AIRS instrument on Aqua.

https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-KUGTnQAAAAJ&hl=en

The animation below takes a simple-minded visual approach to the (tropical) origin of this moisture train, with a view towards anticipating the next one as well as partial explanation of heat spikes in the DMI 80ºN chart. The month of December is shown at 3-hour intervals up to the 24th. Three intrusion events can be seen. The top of the image has to use a different palette because the original does not work well at low TPW>

While the visuals are compelling and self-explanatory, the origin of the hourly data frames is moderately complicated. Total precipitable water is derived by 'morphological compositing' of microwave-retrievals from AMSU-B and MSU from NOAA-18/19, Metop-AB and the ATMS of Suomi-NPP, with JPSS polar orbiters up next. Moisture movement (TPW advection) is governed by (reprocessed) NCEP GFS global winds. This is a new and experimental product, available only since May 2016.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/about.html
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 04:50:19 PM by A-Team »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1584 on: December 24, 2016, 03:54:25 PM »
19m is remarkable. Since significant height is the average of the highest third of the waves, there were presumably even higher individual waves in the series?

Quite so. See the MSW analysis linked to at:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg96622.html#msg96622

If you follow enough links you will eventually end up looking at this graph from ASU's WMO data archive. The black dots are the maximum wave heights recorded.


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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1585 on: December 24, 2016, 04:44:49 PM »
Sorry I think I meddled my own posts ^^"

Quote
Off the coast of Norway?! Actually just north-west of me, off the Outer Hebrides (Scotland).

Actually yes but you get the idea XD

The second effect is advection of an atmospheric moisture column in from far to the south. This impacts the heat budget of the Arctic Ocean more subtly in the form of heat-trapping clouds and water vapor that re-radiate back down longwave radiation the ocean is trying to give off, warming the air over the ice and preconditioning the next melt season by keeping open water from cooling.

Yep. We can get a sense of it with flux data from the reanalysis. The downward longwave radiation flux is showing a big anomaly in Chukchi and Barents sea (such a surprise...). The normal for 12/15 to 12/20 :



And in 2016 :



Longwave radiations coming from the "sky" are extremely high this winter. In Chukchi, the difference is topping 80 W/m². For comparaison, this is usually the power necessary to heat a house in winter... And this is the consequence of a moist, cloudy winter in Arctic. Ostrov Vrangela has seen very high values of Nh (low cloud cover octas) :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ord=REV&ndays=50&ano=2016&mes=12&day=24&hora=12&ind=21982

And low temperatures are roughly correlate to low values of Nh. The same is visible elswhere in the Arctic. It was already the case in 2012, when Barents sea remains open all the winter and allows the cloud cover to keep the region to an extraordinarly wam level.

And we can see the feedback nature of the clouds. High dlwrf is following approximately the edge of sea ice. Open sea is increasing the moisture in the boundary layer, increasing the cloud cover. There is also another important point, the quasi permanent inversion thermal inversion in Arctic : http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n11/full/ngeo1285.html
Strong inversion are especially sensitive to change in radiations flux.

This is probably the most important fact of this winter. Being able to maintain sea open in Chukchi despite polar night is a frightening sight. It implies without any doubt that Arctic is able to be stable in a ice free state in the short term with an increase in heat and moisture transport. The feedback loop of clouds and moisture will be able to coat the Arctic even in the polar night, and with a bit of help from moisture and heat transport, an Arctic winter ice free is possible. This is the message of the current haemorrhagia. Yes, a winter ice free is whithin reach, look at the Chukchi sea. On a longer term, this is also probably linked to the theory of Abott about equable climates.

http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/reprints/Abbot-Tziperman-2008a.pdf

If first step is to destroy thermal inversion with shallow convection (stratocumulus), currently ongoing; the next step could well be an even steeper lapse rate with deep convection and an equable climate. Soon to be a hurricane in Arctic?
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 04:50:29 PM by aslan »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1586 on: December 24, 2016, 05:18:32 PM »
NSIDC extent numbers in 106  km2. Notice that there was a 174k loss from the 22nd to 23rd, leaving extent where it was roughly a week ago.

2016,    12,  16,     11.725,     
2016,    12,  17,     11.762,     
2016,    12,  18,     11.785,     
2016,    12,  19,     11.853,     
2016,    12,  20,     11.983,     
2016,    12,  21,     11.836,     
2016,    12,  22,     11.919,     
2016,    12,  23,     11.745,

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1587 on: December 24, 2016, 08:30:55 PM »
A-team,

since you have been looking at this more closely, do you care to weigh in on the idea that the Warm Arctic Cold Climate  (WACC) event we are seeing in 2016 is produce by:

A) exclusively sea ice loss and arctic ocean heat advection
B) exclusively tropical region water vapor transport into the region independent of arctic conditions
C) primarily sea ice loss and arctic ocean heat advection with some tropical regime impacts
D) primarily tropical region water vapor transport with some arctic regime impacts
E) other

the current case being made is it is a product of A above, with maybe some discussion of Francis & Vavrus wavy jet stream impacts as well.  I am firmly in the B, D camp, with *some* arctic impacts but not much at all

what say you, sir?
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1588 on: December 24, 2016, 08:40:56 PM »


Line plots showing average (near-surface air) temperature departures from normal, averaged around the world, across east-west belts (2.5 degrees latitude or ~250 km in width north-south) separately for land and ocean areas. (Jason Box).

From https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/12/23/the-arctic-is-behaving-so-bizarrely-and-these-scientists-think-they-know-why/?utm_term=.f83cecc18469&wpisrc=nl_most-draw8&wpmm=1

Reporting support for the “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” thesis.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2016, 03:36:39 AM by 6roucho »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1589 on: December 24, 2016, 09:54:48 PM »
<snippage>
If first step is to destroy thermal inversion with shallow convection (stratocumulus), currently ongoing; the next step could well be an even steeper lapse rate with deep convection and an equable climate. Soon to be a hurricane in Arctic?
Excellent post, aslan.  Hurricanes in the Arctic?  We've come close already.  I think we'd need SST's in excess of 20C to support formation of an "eye", so I doubt we are likely to see that morphological artifact any time soon.  However, a storm with steady hurricane force winds?  I think that's a given in our lifetimes.
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1590 on: December 24, 2016, 09:56:58 PM »
Sorry Groucho ..I am getting no plots .. here or at source .. can you help ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1591 on: December 24, 2016, 10:42:16 PM »
Picking up from the links and discussion A-Team posted, I'm digesting this paper:
http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/reprints/Abbot-Tziperman-2008a.pdf

Full article:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL032286/full

This bit struck me:

" At CO2 concentrations that might be relevant for equable climates (250–4000 ppm [Pagani et al., 2005; Pearson and Palmer, 2000]), the atmosphere and ocean would have to supply 40–50 W m−2 to the surface to maintain an ice-free state in the Arctic ocean."

I wonder what the averaged imported heat is so far this refreeze season?
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1592 on: December 24, 2016, 11:22:12 PM »
Latest from University of Bremen, how much ice has retreated in just 8 days.
The Barents Bite is back with a vengeance right for midwinter fest. This is just amazing. One of the big stories of this melting season was the Atlantic front, and specifically the ice-killing zone around FJL. Turns out one of the big stories of the "freezing" season is exactly the same. The ice can't maintain a foothold.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1593 on: December 25, 2016, 12:26:06 AM »
with regards to studies of equable climates, posted this here 2 weeks ago

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg96837.html#msg96837

ASLR and a few of us were discussing this as a possibility on the "conservative scientists" thread back in November of 2014  here:  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg39961.html#msg39961
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1594 on: December 25, 2016, 01:43:06 AM »
NWS Ocean Prediction Center:  Surface analyses from [12/23/16], 2013 & 2011 show interesting similarity of hurricane force lows in E Atlantic near this date in recent years.
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/812445430235664384
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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1595 on: December 25, 2016, 03:37:48 AM »
Sorry Groucho ..I am getting no plots .. here or at source .. can you help ?

i copied it to a tame web server. Can you see it now, be cause? Maybe the WP blocks hot linking. Also attached here, click to animate. Happy winter saturnalia,  everyone.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2016, 03:51:09 AM by 6roucho »

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1596 on: December 25, 2016, 05:48:41 AM »
I had made a post a couple days ago about the warm water around Svalbard, which has accumulated there because of the sharp turn the current makes there. I ha hypothesized that some of this water had gotten disturbed and contributed to the attack on the front, though probably not the sole cause of what took place as storms came through.
The warm water got pushed and re-distributed toward the waters just north of FJL.[CLICK IMAGE]
I did a time lapse at the tip of the yellow.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1597 on: December 25, 2016, 01:31:44 PM »
Here's my modified dmi 80 graph- set to the new "normal" with a heightened slope in the bell- curve.

2017 will be a sorcher as this trend is expexted to continue well into the New Year.

Don't worry- Nuclear Winter is coming- soon!

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1598 on: December 25, 2016, 02:05:10 PM »
A Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah etc. to all at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum!

Let me see if I can embed this festive tweet. Apparently not! For DB techs everywhere:



He's making a Database
He's sorting it twice
SELECT * from contacts WHERE behavior = 'nice'
SQL clause is coming to town!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Phil.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1599 on: December 25, 2016, 02:15:48 PM »
A Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah etc. to all at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum!

Let me see if I can embed this festive tweet. Apparently not! For DB techs everywhere:



He's making a Database
He's sorting it twice
SELECT * from contacts WHERE behavior = 'nice'
SQL clause is coming to town!


Merry Christmas everybody.