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Tealight

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1700 on: January 01, 2017, 04:02:14 PM »
another of those "hot spots" (relative)

Barrow, AK enters a short melting season with 35F  (+1.6C)
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1701 on: January 01, 2017, 04:05:17 PM »
Quote
the damage has already been done. don't see the Arctic picking up much thickness through rest of season.the melt season could be spectacular in a very bad way. 2017 melt season will deliver us to never before seen territory
Right. It would take unprecedented weather to get us out of an unprecedented situation. In my view, the Arctic Ocean tipped over this fall and -- in the absence of any scientific guidance -- we're waiting to see if the climate catches itself at a new stage (of deteriorating heat budget) or just falls straight through the floor. 

Note below how recent years are better differentiated by SMOS thin ice extent. If all the colorful colors below were replaced by the thick ice color, the years would look pretty much the same in most peripheral regions, 3rd image. Even though they weren't, 2nd image.

The six small inset regions are the Chukchi, Barents-Kara, Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, and Beaufort. Early years had regions of RFI (radio frequency interference, gray) even though the satellite's sensor wavelength was not an admissible microwave communication channel.)
« Last Edit: January 01, 2017, 07:29:05 PM by A-Team »

Buddy

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1702 on: January 01, 2017, 04:18:12 PM »
Some folks...including me....were looking at the DMI above 80 degree latitude numbers from various years the other day.  Thought I would insert one more that I took a gander at:  The 1998 numbers.

Remember.....the big El Nino was in 1997 - 1998....so below I've put the 2016 vs the 1998 DMI charts.  Quite a difference....yes?
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1703 on: January 01, 2017, 04:52:09 PM »
About a week from now, the GFS has Low Pressure Systems entering the Arctic from the Atlantic. Yes, I did put an s on that, as in plural. I know it's a little early to know what these will amount to, but  it's a scenario that bears watching.

romett1

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1704 on: January 01, 2017, 04:58:02 PM »
Quite a big piece of ice is trying to enter Nares Strait. And some new cracks have appeared overnight again.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1705 on: January 01, 2017, 05:10:59 PM »
About a week from now, the GFS has Low Pressure Systems entering the Arctic from the Atlantic. Yes, I did put an s on that, as in plural. I know it's a little early to know what these will amount to, but  it's a scenario that bears watching.

The newly stormy Arctic regime is the single biggest change over the last few years. Many here have commented about the transition from a frigid desert to a humid stormy ocean. This trend in the next few years will continue and intensify. The ice coming out of this freeze season, (thin, fragmented and highly mobile) will not be able to withstand the mechanical forces of the 2017 melt season.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1706 on: January 01, 2017, 05:12:40 PM »
Brian Brettschneider:  Here's my metaphor for 2016. Walked 7 miles down frozen creek in Anchorage, AK. Under 1/4 from end, I broke through and got soaking wet.
https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/815296306281259008
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1707 on: January 01, 2017, 05:34:10 PM »
Quote
The newly stormy Arctic regime is the single biggest change over the last few years. Many here have commented about the transition from a frigid desert to a humid stormy ocean. This trend in the next few years will continue and intensify.
Here's some warm humid air coming in today. Note TPW does not mean total precipitable water in the air column but rather total precipitable water vapor which does not include liquid water or ice crystals in clouds (nor virga, rain drops, mist, fog, snowflakes).

The latter lack the 22 Ghz bond stretching absorption line that satellites use to measure water vapor. Try the TCW (total cloud water) channel at nullschool for clouds. The kg/m2 SI units are equivalent to the more intuitive millimeters of standing water should the water vapor in the entire air column be liquified.

However some 99% of the water in the global atmosphere is in the form of water vapor, almost all in the (tropical troposphere) and exponentially declining with elevation there. The residency time of a water molecule is a few weeks, so vastly different from a CO2 molecule now thought over a thousand years. Clouds scatter sunlight whereas water vapor is effectively transparent in the visible.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?

For maps of atmospheric rivers, with Vertically Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) with magnitude shaded in units of mm, winds at 850-hPa indicated by vectors and mean sea level pressure contoured in hPa from GFS and NAM, see:

http://woodland.ucsd.edu/?page_id=5488
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 01:10:46 PM by A-Team »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1708 on: January 01, 2017, 06:35:20 PM »
NSIDC took a little step backwards for 12-31 SIE,

2016,    12,  30,     12.669,     
2016,    12,  31,     12.608,

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1709 on: January 01, 2017, 08:18:31 PM »
That water vapor image is a great illustration of how a blocking high is maintained. The northward movement of moist air at high levels puts warm air aloft that originated in the subtropics over cold air at the surface. The Coriolis effect in the NH gives the warm air clockwise spin. Note the cold air from the Arctic is draining out under northerly winds north of Vancouver island. Without the push of westerly winds, the Coriolis effect makes it turn right, out to sea as it blows south. That cold air is then modified, warmed by the ocean heat and the surface pressure drops creating low pressure areas under the high.

This is a classic rain set up for northern California. It's another episode of crazy amounts of water vapor injected into the Arctic atmosphere but some good might come from it this time. It looks like the drought is about to be completely broken from central California north and water supplies will be rebuilt. Watch for floods.

Now that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has switched to the warm phase, the teleconnections with the Arctic have changed. Instead of the "ridiculously resistant ridge" off the west coast we're seeing a persistent blocking pattern north of the Aleutians. We're seeing a classic west coast rain pattern potentially amplified by the loss of Arctic sea ice.

The Climate Prediction Center's winter forecast for north America is failing badly as the forecast La Niña is obliterated by the effects of the intense early Siberian snow that developed in part because of the lack of sea ice in Barents and Kara seas.

What's happening this winter is astounding. We'll see what the next 2 months bring, but don't expect the models to get it right. We're in uncharted open waters.

My hat is off to Judah Cohen who is doing better a predicting this winter's weather, so far, than the CPC.

Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1710 on: January 01, 2017, 09:06:18 PM »
AlaskaWx: Remarkably, almost the entire North Slope of #Alaska is at or above freezing New Years Day 2017 morning. ...
https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/815602011345276928

@Climatologist49: The current temp of 36°F temp in Utqiaġvik (Barrow) is tied for the highest for any date between Nov 12 and April 11. ...
https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/815602642172841984

@AlaskaWx: 2016 at Utqiaġvik blows away previous warmest year by a full 2ºF. Trend since  1970s a stunning º6F. ...
https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/815628328925151232
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kiwichick16

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1711 on: January 01, 2017, 11:29:24 PM »
@  sigmetnow......thanks for that post.....particularly the graph showing annual temperature average at Utqiagvik

amazing range from the coldest year in the 1960's ...

ktonine

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1712 on: January 02, 2017, 01:05:44 PM »
I believe Jim Hunt originally told me where to find the DMI raw data.

ftp Directory for DMI raw data




Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1713 on: January 02, 2017, 01:31:48 PM »


Space weather.com offered the above image of clouds high in the Stratosphere;

http://www.spaceweather.com/

it also mentions an ozone hole over the UK last Feb, the same Feb that saw the equatorial strat doing its 'oddness'?

Have we all been 'missing a trick' by not considering rapid alterations in the upper atmosphere ( strat/mesosphere) as a way of rapidly altering weather/heat distribution around the globe?

The way the Autumn upset Polar vortex both forced the jet to feed a rapid succession of warm lows into the basin and also force a stream of flow into the equatorial flow makes me wonder just how far reaching the perturbed atmosphere over the open water basin ,at melt seasons end, is?

As the amount of open water, and the length of time it remains open over melt season , increases then these 'strange' impacts on the strat ( and mesosphere) will also increase. Will they become so messed up as to short circuit the cells in the northern hemisphere Trop?
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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1714 on: January 02, 2017, 04:00:48 PM »
Hycom foresees a further CW rotation of the ice pack out to 08 Jan 17 and further squashing against Nord and Morris Jesup, causing a large block (beige arrow) of formerly landfast ice to possibly get caught up in the breaking export current (yellow arrow).

Greenland was formerly well to the south but after plate tectonics brought it to its present position, its northeast corner serves to restrict export of the CAA ice.

While the notion of thinner ice being more mobile is attractive, in specific situations it is difficult to say if that actually comes into play (rather than more powerful forces being brought to bear).

The animation overlays ice thickness over Sentinel-1AB (which is only available to the 1st). It is somewhat tricky to update as the week goes on and new Sentinels become available because Hycom is also updating its prediction and overwriting older frames with reanalysis.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 07:20:52 PM by A-Team »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1715 on: January 02, 2017, 05:39:17 PM »
Now I am confused. I don't know which thread to post in. Maybe we need a "stall" thread. That seems to be where we are. Looking at NSIDC SIE numbers.
2016,    12,  30,     12.669,     
2016,    12,  31,     12.608,     
2017,    01,  01,     12.609,

I think we are to expect very stifled growth in the near future.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 05:45:18 PM by Tigertown »

Pavel

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1716 on: January 02, 2017, 06:34:15 PM »
2016,    12,  30,     12.669,     
2016,    12,  31,     12.608,     
This decline is just a sensor error, it showed ice-covered Gulf of St. Lawrence on 30th of Dec. So the extent still unchanged for some days

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1717 on: January 02, 2017, 06:55:12 PM »
2016,    12,  30,     12.669,     
2016,    12,  31,     12.608,     
This decline is just a sensor error, it showed ice-covered Gulf of St. Lawrence on 30th of Dec. So the extent still unchanged for some days
I beg to differ on that. There may have been some small gains in some places between the 30th and 31st, but there were some more areas that melted back also. Look at Baffin, Alaskan shore on the Bering side, S.E. Greenland.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1718 on: January 03, 2017, 02:31:06 PM »
Nominal gain of 6k km2 per NSIDC for SIE, which brings us to 12.614 M after adjusting 1-1-17 to 12.608 M. I think we can get used to smaller gains for a little while, though maybe not quite this small.

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1719 on: January 03, 2017, 06:06:41 PM »
Nominal gain of 6k km2 per NSIDC for SIE, which brings us to 12.614 M after adjusting 1-1-17 to 12.608 M. I think we can get used to smaller gains for a little while, though maybe not quite this small.
They could taper off for quite a while, if not completely for the rest of the season.  The remaining peripheral seas save the Okhotsk have an awful lot of heat they need to dump, and in the coming weeks are going to start picking up insolation again.

I will be curious to see how many century increases we get with this much open water north of 65 degrees latitude.  Not many, I'm betting.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1720 on: January 03, 2017, 07:27:19 PM »
@jdallen. You got me curious about what is going on in the Okhotsk Sea, so I checked. You are right, as there is not a huge amount of heat, but some appears to keep bleeding in from the Pacific.
I don't know why the spike is there at about 80 or so meters down. Maybe somebody knows. Could there be a current?

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1721 on: January 03, 2017, 11:07:08 PM »
NOAA's ESRL mean 1000mb specific humidity and SSTs from ~70N to ~90N broke records again in Dec 2016, however not nearly as much as in Oct and Nov. For comparison see Nov versus Dec charts below.

Didn't seem like exogenous moist air mass input was that much less in Dec versus Nov.  So I'm wondering if December's increased sea ice extent was the main factor lowering 1000mb specific humidity?  A decrease in Dec SSTs seems more obviously connected to the cumulative loss of ocean heat to atmosphere during Oct, Nov and Dec.

Also of note, ESRL precipitable water was higher than normal for Dec, but not record smashing like Oct and Nov.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1722 on: January 04, 2017, 10:07:00 AM »
Right. It would take unprecedented weather to get us out of an unprecedented situation. In my view, the Arctic Ocean tipped over this fall and -- in the absence of any scientific guidance -- we're waiting to see if the climate catches itself at a new stage (of deteriorating heat budget) or just falls straight through the floor. 

I felt that the Ocean tipped over in the spring and that is why I was predicting a stall, followed by a rush to end followed by a choppy extended and warm re-growth season back around May/June time whilst everyone was talking about a "super" melt season.

Back in May I suggested that 2016 would be a "miss", followed by a real crash in 2017.  I stuck my neck out because it looked way too like 2006 to me.  I recall it so well.

However even my pessimism did not lead to the epic re-freeze season we have just seen.  Yet it's all part and parcel of the whole.  I look forward to the 2017 melting season because I think that this freezing season is a knife in the heart of the Arctic Ice.  It may take another 5 to 10 years to fully feel the impact (we are talking about an ocean which gets no sunlight at all over the winter), but the demise is pretty much on the cards.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1723 on: January 04, 2017, 03:00:26 PM »
NSIDC SIE went up a little for the 3rd of the month, 91k .
 X106 km2
2016,    12,  30,     12.669,     
2016,    12,  31,     12.608,     
2017,    01,  01,     12.608,     
2017,    01,  02,     12.614,     
2017,    01,  03,     12.705,

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1724 on: January 04, 2017, 05:26:34 PM »
Ph.D student Zack Labe have done this eminent picture of monthly temperature rankings at 925 hPa-level for Arctic north of 70oN. September to November were all the warmest on record while December came in on  fourth place behind 2009, 2001 and 2005.

Courtesy: Zack Labe.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1725 on: January 04, 2017, 06:10:44 PM »
The Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea seem to be struggling this year. The ice in the Chukchi looks terrible on the concentration maps and is not thickening much. I did a comparison from '09 til now for encroaching SST's. I think maybe the wind might be driving the warmer waters through and thus attacking the ice. (I called them SST's but these images are actually from 49 cm depth)
CLICK IMAGE
« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 06:20:27 PM by Tigertown »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1726 on: January 04, 2017, 10:46:12 PM »
Here we go again on the Atlantic side.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1727 on: January 04, 2017, 10:57:36 PM »
The Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea seem to be struggling this year. The ice in the Chukchi looks terrible on the concentration maps and is not thickening much. I did a comparison from '09 til now for encroaching SST's. I think maybe the wind might be driving the warmer waters through and thus attacking the ice. (I called them SST's but these images are actually from 49 cm depth)
CLICK IMAGE

Besides the huge change in Bering/Chukchi look at Okhotsk for the opposite effect... wow!

shmengie

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1728 on: January 04, 2017, 11:11:00 PM »
I fear 2017 winter-spring will bounce higher than 2016 . . .
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1729 on: January 05, 2017, 01:48:06 AM »
Ph.D student Zack Labe have done this eminent picture of monthly temperature rankings at 925 hPa-level for Arctic north of 70oN. September to November were all the warmest on record while December came in on  fourth place behind 2009, 2001 and 2005.

Courtesy: Zack Labe.

When you look at these temperature rankings, I think we are seeing a pattern emerging over the past 4 or 5 years that will strengthen and persist. The ranking of summer months for the past 4 years is actually much lower than the fall, winter and spring. We are essentially seeing relatively cooler summers while the winters are at the very top of the rankings. I think this is directly related to the transition from the frigid desert climate to open humid ocean climate that we are witnessing right now. The higher humidity (clouds, fog etc.) are causing cooler than normal summers and warmer than normal winters.
 
Could we be watching a shift towards an equable climate? One feature of an equable climate is the reduction in temperature gradient between the equator and the pole. A second feature is a reduction in temperatures between summer and winter.

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1730 on: January 05, 2017, 05:30:08 AM »
I fear 2017 winter-spring will bounce higher than 2016 . . .

Nice work, yes there is every indication that as the NH Summer approaches and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further north that this will increase the rate of heat and water vapor moving into the arctic, with more temperature rises.  Still, we had a pretty cool July last year, it maybe that we see a similar effect, helping to reduce ice loss. 

However, if Wips estimation of Sea Ice Volume is correct, with the additional extra export, well it just won't matter much.  I mean, (insert swear word) the Nares is STILL EXPORTING ICE!

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Now, I know it isn't much as a percent of total volume, what it means to me is that the ice is not setting up, that it is so fractured and variable it is mobile and weak.  We will be going into the melt season this year with the worst ice conditions, by far, ever witnessed by anyone here.

In 2013 and 2014 the source of increased cloud and water vapor was from mid latitudes, cycled through the pacific after colder temps.  If we see a further continuation of the straight shot tropical water and heat into the arctic, if this gains strength and momentum into the Summer, we could easily see large volumes of rainfall instead of ice and snow. 

http://yournewswire.com/scientists-baffled-by-massive-rainfall-near-the-arctic/
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1731 on: January 05, 2017, 05:38:19 AM »
 :-[

sorry for the add on but I meant to link this, it is important

https://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2010/1/article/886

Paleoclimate Project Shows Arctic Temperatures and Ecosystems Highly Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Levels

Quote
Led by a team from University of Colorado at Boulder and Principal Investigator Ashley Ballantyne, Department of Geological Sciences, this international project sought to develop robust proxy temperature indicators from the Pliocene Epoch (2.6 to 5.3 million years ago), the most recent interval in Earth's history when CO2 levels were comparable to those of today.

 . . .

The team used three independent temperature proxies obtained from a peat deposit at the Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic (N 78°, W 82°)

 . . .

The team constructed a composite mean annual temperature estimate of -0.4°C, suggesting that arctic temperatures were 19.3°C warmer during the Pliocene than they are today. These estimates are also 5-10°C warmer than previous estimates derived from temperature proxies or climate models.

The Pliocene is particularly interesting when compared with other ancient intervals of warm global mean temperatures because Pliocene atmospheric CO2 levels are estimated to have been ~390 parts per million by volume, only slightly higher than pre-industrial levels. According to Ballantyne, the findings indicate that global CO2 levels of approximately 400 parts per million by volume are sufficient to produce mean annual temperatures in the High Arctic of approximately 0°C (32°F). At this temperature it is very difficult to form and sustain perennial ice, a defining feature of the present arctic environment.


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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1732 on: January 05, 2017, 05:42:50 AM »
:-[

sorry for the add on but I meant to link this, it is important

https://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2010/1/article/886

Paleoclimate Project Shows Arctic Temperatures and Ecosystems Highly Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Levels

Quote
Led by a team from University of Colorado at Boulder and Principal Investigator Ashley Ballantyne, Department of Geological Sciences, this international project sought to develop robust proxy temperature indicators from the Pliocene Epoch (2.6 to 5.3 million years ago), the most recent interval in Earth's history when CO2 levels were comparable to those of today.

 . . .

The team used three independent temperature proxies obtained from a peat deposit at the Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic (N 78°, W 82°)

 . . .

The team constructed a composite mean annual temperature estimate of -0.4°C, suggesting that arctic temperatures were 19.3°C warmer during the Pliocene than they are today. These estimates are also 5-10°C warmer than previous estimates derived from temperature proxies or climate models.

The Pliocene is particularly interesting when compared with other ancient intervals of warm global mean temperatures because Pliocene atmospheric CO2 levels are estimated to have been ~390 parts per million by volume, only slightly higher than pre-industrial levels. According to Ballantyne, the findings indicate that global CO2 levels of approximately 400 parts per million by volume are sufficient to produce mean annual temperatures in the High Arctic of approximately 0°C (32°F). At this temperature it is very difficult to form and sustain perennial ice, a defining feature of the present arctic environment.


ubi Viddaloo abiit?

ice-free Arctic = cause of Greenland melt events = explanation for why Younger Dryas happened so quickly... once you go blue Arctic the counter-effect is a massive discharge of the Greenland ice sheet into the North Atlantic, and likely as another side effect, massive growth of sea ice next to Eurasia in Okhotsk... i wonder if this works to "surround" the surge of warm water into the Arctic with substantially more lower-high-altitude sea ice, isolating it in the Arctic Ocean. it would subsequently end up cooling once Greenland's discharge/etc is enough to stimulate enough sea ice growth in the upper mid-latitudes, but in the intervening years, you see an explanation for Younger Dryas/etc.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1733 on: January 05, 2017, 05:56:27 AM »
:-[

sorry for the add on but I meant to link this, it is important

https://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2010/1/article/886

Paleoclimate Project Shows Arctic Temperatures and Ecosystems Highly Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Levels

Quote
Led by a team from University of Colorado at Boulder and Principal Investigator Ashley Ballantyne, Department of Geological Sciences, this international project sought to develop robust proxy temperature indicators from the Pliocene Epoch (2.6 to 5.3 million years ago), the most recent interval in Earth's history when CO2 levels were comparable to those of today.

 . . .

The team used three independent temperature proxies obtained from a peat deposit at the Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic (N 78°, W 82°)

 . . .

The team constructed a composite mean annual temperature estimate of -0.4°C, suggesting that arctic temperatures were 19.3°C warmer during the Pliocene than they are today. These estimates are also 5-10°C warmer than previous estimates derived from temperature proxies or climate models.

The Pliocene is particularly interesting when compared with other ancient intervals of warm global mean temperatures because Pliocene atmospheric CO2 levels are estimated to have been ~390 parts per million by volume, only slightly higher than pre-industrial levels. According to Ballantyne, the findings indicate that global CO2 levels of approximately 400 parts per million by volume are sufficient to produce mean annual temperatures in the High Arctic of approximately 0°C (32°F). At this temperature it is very difficult to form and sustain perennial ice, a defining feature of the present arctic environment.


ubi Viddaloo abiit?

ice-free Arctic = cause of Greenland melt events = explanation for why Younger Dryas happened so quickly... once you go blue Arctic the counter-effect is a massive discharge of the Greenland ice sheet into the North Atlantic, and likely as another side effect, massive growth of sea ice next to Eurasia in Okhotsk... i wonder if this works to "surround" the surge of warm water into the Arctic with substantially more lower-high-altitude sea ice, isolating it in the Arctic Ocean. it would subsequently end up cooling once Greenland's discharge/etc is enough to stimulate enough sea ice growth in the upper mid-latitudes, but in the intervening years, you see an explanation for Younger Dryas/etc.

Well, Greenland is a bowl and Laurentide ice sheet rested on high ground, seen Pliocene estimates of 420 ppm, and Younger Dryas was still way warmer in the rest of the world than Atlantic margins. Otherwise pretty much what we're seeing now, 8-10 degrees C higher than climatology. I'd like to think GIS isn't in its death throes  and still hope I don't live to see that.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1734 on: January 05, 2017, 06:45:49 AM »
A new attack is starting right now. An abundant onslaught of moisture is coming from the Atlantic moving past Iceland and making its way around Svalbard. A train of L-Pressure systems is starting to move up in accordance with the forecast.


P.S. 65 km/hr surface winds in the Bering Strait. The front has begun to melt back it appears, instead of compacting. Everything in the Chukchi is starting to look terrible all the way nearly into the Beaufort. I don't exactly know why? The air shows cold temps. I am thinking waves.The water wouldn't heat up as the heat would go toward melting, so it may be warm water being pushed inward.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 07:05:02 AM by Tigertown »

mmghosh

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1735 on: January 05, 2017, 08:18:40 AM »
Is this the first time that the Bering Strait has not frozen over completely in the 1st week of January?

jdallen

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1736 on: January 05, 2017, 08:19:04 AM »
A new attack is starting right now. An abundant onslaught of moisture is coming from the Atlantic moving past Iceland and making its way around Svalbard. A train of L-Pressure systems is starting to move up in accordance with the forecast.


P.S. 65 km/hr surface winds in the Bering Strait. The front has begun to melt back it appears, instead of compacting. Everything in the Chukchi is starting to look terrible all the way nearly into the Beaufort. I don't exactly know why? The air shows cold temps. I am thinking waves.The water wouldn't heat up as the heat would go toward melting, so it may be warm water being pushed inward.
Actually, temperatures in the Chukchi are close to freezing, nothing like cold enough to form ice.  Temperatures in the Bering remain as they have - close to or above 0C - so we are unlikely to see freezing there soon.

Add in storms, the resulting Ekman mixing, and export of heat north through the Bering strait, and I expect Chukchi ice won't get even to a Meter of thickness, if that.  It will be a gift if the Bering freezes any more than it has.  Insolation will start ramping up rapidly in about 4 weeks.  Once that starts, combined with continuing storms, the prospect of any further freezing in the Bering is moot, and may start causing the Chukchi disintegrating.
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1737 on: January 05, 2017, 08:36:56 AM »
I checked the thickness in the Chukchi a day or two ago, and the majority was between 10 and 30 cm. So that probably would not take much to damage it. The high winds in the Bering  Strait probably are driving waves inward, and the thin ice offering little resistance. I don't know much about Ekman pumping and how much movement it takes to get it started, but I don't doubt it is contributing.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1738 on: January 05, 2017, 10:18:14 AM »
On Sunday the 8th, the GFS shows a powerful atmospheric river event impacting California. It also shows how our climate 2.0's wavy polar jet opens the gate for moisture and heat to transfer, in a stunningly direct way, from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the Arctic. :o
« Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 10:33:45 AM by Ice Shieldz »

JayW

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1739 on: January 05, 2017, 12:38:51 PM »
Some neat VIIRS imagery of the Chukchi and Beaufort areas from http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs_arctic.asp

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Bill Fothergill

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1740 on: January 05, 2017, 02:09:20 PM »
...

ice-free Arctic = cause of Greenland melt events = explanation for why Younger Dryas happened so quickly... once you go blue Arctic the counter-effect is a massive discharge of the Greenland ice sheet into the North Atlantic ...


In an earlier reply, Pmt111500 correctly observed that the topography of Greenland differs significantly from that of the terrain once underlying the long-gone Laurentide Ice Sheet. As the LIS gradually melted during the climb out of the last glacial maximum, the meltwater was trapped in a humungous glacial lake. This vast body of water is referred to as Lake Agassiz. It is postulated that the YD event may have been triggered by a sudden release of fresh water at close to 0 deg C when the remnants of the ice enclosing the lake failed catastrophically. The ensuing "freshwater lid" is then thought to have affected the behaviour of the thermohaline circulation for around a millennium.

Whilst I definitely share your concern regarding the effects of greatly increased discharge of ice/meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet, the rate at which this water is released should be at least an order of magnitude less than that seen at the Agassiz collapse.

(I hope)

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1741 on: January 05, 2017, 03:24:35 PM »
I'd have to agree Bill!

We are not at the end of a glaciation, we've done that bit already and though we may see impacts of melt water on the AMOC and Southern Ocean CO2 sinks we will not see the kind of huge discharge that collapsing Ice age ice sheets provide but just the moderate discharge that West Antarctica /2/3rds of Greenland will provide.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1742 on: January 05, 2017, 03:40:26 PM »
I'd have to agree Bill!

We are not at the end of a glaciation, we've done that bit already and though we may see impacts of melt water on the AMOC and Southern Ocean CO2 sinks we will not see the kind of huge discharge that collapsing Ice age ice sheets provide but just the moderate discharge that West Antarctica /2/3rds of Greenland will provide.
??? That is a massive discharge... we *are* at the end of a glaciation, that is why Greenland and Antarctica are now melting (those are both ice sheets, the same as the Laurentide).

Greenland may be a bowl but the freshwater still flows into the North Atlantic -- I don't think it much matters whether it happens instantaneously or over the repeated course of several summertime, the net impact is still the same.

wehappyfew

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1743 on: January 05, 2017, 03:43:08 PM »
There are certainly no huge freshwater lakes poised to release all at once now.

But there is a big difference between the warming rates coming out of the LGM vs now. We are warming so fast now compared to then that the normal melting and calving of the GIS may contribute freshwater at a comparable average rate as happened then.

Aren't we about warming about 20 times faster, or is it a hundred?


bbr2314

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1744 on: January 05, 2017, 03:50:38 PM »
There are certainly no huge freshwater lakes poised to release all at once now.

But there is a big difference between the warming rates coming out of the LGM vs now. We are warming so fast now compared to then that the normal melting and calving of the GIS may contribute freshwater at a comparable average rate as happened then.

Aren't we about warming about 20 times faster, or is it a hundred?
Exactly... all at once is irrelevant if the rate of warming is substantially worse at the moment vs previous warming events; don't need to accumulate a freshwater lake if a trickle is instead a gushing torrent from the ice sheet itself. If the Arctic goes blue ocean this year I think there is a very decent chance we see a very substantial increase in the annual rate of GIS loss, and if Hansen's models are correct it will be more than sufficient to overwhelm AMOC. & Hansen's models have so far apparently been shown to be conservative...

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1745 on: January 05, 2017, 04:00:33 PM »
There are certainly no huge freshwater lakes poised to release all at once now.

But there is a big difference between the warming rates coming out of the LGM vs now. We are warming so fast now compared to then that the normal melting and calving of the GIS may contribute freshwater at a comparable average rate as happened then.

Aren't we about warming about 20 times faster, or is it a hundred?

Yes... It was something like 20* the last time I checked... Ice berg galore to be expected on the southern ocean at some point in future. I can't tell which is speedier GIS or WAIS, but I'd picture GIS discharge to be more episodic while WAIS may send bergs pretty much continously during southern summers... Of the time periods, see Hansens +3m paper and its critics... But the ASI is the first to go which i guess is why we're all here. The temperatures this winter over the arctic have been such we may soon see the GIS response.
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Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1746 on: January 05, 2017, 04:03:00 PM »
Exactly... all at once is irrelevant if the rate of warming is substantially worse at the moment vs previous warming events; don't need to accumulate a freshwater lake if a trickle is instead a gushing torrent from the ice sheet itself. If the Arctic goes blue ocean this year I think there is a very decent chance we see a very substantial increase in the annual rate of GIS loss, and if Hansen's models are correct it will be more than sufficient to overwhelm AMOC. & Hansen's models have so far apparently been shown to be conservative...

I'm inclined to think that initially the GIS will grow rather than shrink -- at least for a decade or two while the increased precipitation falls mostly as snow.  Unless, that is, the Gulf Stream decides to turn northward enough to go to the West of Greenland.

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1747 on: January 05, 2017, 04:29:13 PM »
just a few thoughts on various recent topics:

a) greenland indeed is a bowle while the "bowle effect will not have an impact until the ice has melted to the level of the rim of that bowl and as well, the "BOWL" will be much less "bowlish once the weight of the melted ice is gone and the bottom of the bowl will raise accordingly.

b) IMO it's important that we do not mix temporary local effects with overall development. of course warming and melting will change weather patterns and ocean currents and henceforth change the climate of certain regions in a different manner, in same cases without any doubt it will get locally colder for some time. nevertheless the end-result will be a globally warmer climate and predicting that stuff is either not possible or only possible with the help of top equipment and educational levels.

c) while i'm reluctant to judge the overall balance of warming (postiive or negative) it's for certain that for some it will be a gift and for others fatal. the only and very short term effect that i can think off that will impact billions of humans and in most cases be fatal ist Sea-Level-Rise and many of us will see live to see this but probably not myself, simply to few years to go LOL.

d) beside the SLR thingy there is one more thing that will in most cases lead to massive disruptions for billions of humans that is the speed of things happening. even should mankind be able to adopt in many ways, that will not apply to mother nature as a whole, meaning fauna and flora and that again will definitely have a catastrophic impact on many humans again.

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1748 on: January 05, 2017, 04:57:42 PM »
One more thing on LIS vs. GIS: the GIS has many outlets on all sides, meaning the freshwater is spread out, while Lake Aggasssiz emptied in just one direction each time it emptied, concentrating the effect.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1749 on: January 05, 2017, 05:25:22 PM »
Quote
GIS has many outlets on all sides, meaning the freshwater is spread out
Actually Greenland is quite mountainous (to 3694 m, Gunnbjørn Fjeld) along much of its eastern-central and northern coast, meaning the ice sheet is quite thin and very little ice is calved on that side today (except way to the south). A much larger fraction of the discharge now and near-term seems to be from the western side -- and that water is swept up and around far to the north before eventually circling down, by that time at a higher salinity. Arctic Ocean ice melting as it exits the Fram may provide a larger source of freshwater but whether the Irminger Current pools it over the proposed AMOC slowdown site is another matter.

In past melt-out episodes inferred from Be10 and Al26 exposure ratios, almost all of the remnant ice is left on the eastern side. The GRIP ice core is the only one to have obtained a bedrock carbonate-to-granite sample.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v540/n7632/full/nature20146.html Dec 2016

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311484731_Greenland_was_nearly_ice-free_for_extended_periods_during_the_Pleistocene free full
« Last Edit: January 05, 2017, 05:34:23 PM by A-Team »