Happy New Year 2024 (and sorry for the forum being offline some hours) /DM
another of those "hot spots" (relative)
the damage has already been done. don't see the Arctic picking up much thickness through rest of season.the melt season could be spectacular in a very bad way. 2017 melt season will deliver us to never before seen territory
About a week from now, the GFS has Low Pressure Systems entering the Arctic from the Atlantic. Yes, I did put an s on that, as in plural. I know it's a little early to know what these will amount to, but it's a scenario that bears watching.
The newly stormy Arctic regime is the single biggest change over the last few years. Many here have commented about the transition from a frigid desert to a humid stormy ocean. This trend in the next few years will continue and intensify.
2016, 12, 30, 12.669, 2016, 12, 31, 12.608,
Quote from: Tigertown on January 02, 2017, 05:39:17 PM2016, 12, 30, 12.669, 2016, 12, 31, 12.608, This decline is just a sensor error, it showed ice-covered Gulf of St. Lawrence on 30th of Dec. So the extent still unchanged for some days
Nominal gain of 6k km2 per NSIDC for SIE, which brings us to 12.614 M after adjusting 1-1-17 to 12.608 M. I think we can get used to smaller gains for a little while, though maybe not quite this small.
Right. It would take unprecedented weather to get us out of an unprecedented situation. In my view, the Arctic Ocean tipped over this fall and -- in the absence of any scientific guidance -- we're waiting to see if the climate catches itself at a new stage (of deteriorating heat budget) or just falls straight through the floor.
The Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea seem to be struggling this year. The ice in the Chukchi looks terrible on the concentration maps and is not thickening much. I did a comparison from '09 til now for encroaching SST's. I think maybe the wind might be driving the warmer waters through and thus attacking the ice. (I called them SST's but these images are actually from 49 cm depth)CLICK IMAGE
Ph.D student Zack Labe have done this eminent picture of monthly temperature rankings at 925 hPa-level for Arctic north of 70oN. September to November were all the warmest on record while December came in on fourth place behind 2009, 2001 and 2005.Courtesy: Zack Labe.
I fear 2017 winter-spring will bounce higher than 2016 . . .
Led by a team from University of Colorado at Boulder and Principal Investigator Ashley Ballantyne, Department of Geological Sciences, this international project sought to develop robust proxy temperature indicators from the Pliocene Epoch (2.6 to 5.3 million years ago), the most recent interval in Earth's history when CO2 levels were comparable to those of today. . . .The team used three independent temperature proxies obtained from a peat deposit at the Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic (N 78°, W 82°) . . .The team constructed a composite mean annual temperature estimate of -0.4°C, suggesting that arctic temperatures were 19.3°C warmer during the Pliocene than they are today. These estimates are also 5-10°C warmer than previous estimates derived from temperature proxies or climate models.The Pliocene is particularly interesting when compared with other ancient intervals of warm global mean temperatures because Pliocene atmospheric CO2 levels are estimated to have been ~390 parts per million by volume, only slightly higher than pre-industrial levels. According to Ballantyne, the findings indicate that global CO2 levels of approximately 400 parts per million by volume are sufficient to produce mean annual temperatures in the High Arctic of approximately 0°C (32°F). At this temperature it is very difficult to form and sustain perennial ice, a defining feature of the present arctic environment.
sorry for the add on but I meant to link this, it is importanthttps://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2010/1/article/886Paleoclimate Project Shows Arctic Temperatures and Ecosystems Highly Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide LevelsQuoteLed by a team from University of Colorado at Boulder and Principal Investigator Ashley Ballantyne, Department of Geological Sciences, this international project sought to develop robust proxy temperature indicators from the Pliocene Epoch (2.6 to 5.3 million years ago), the most recent interval in Earth's history when CO2 levels were comparable to those of today. . . .The team used three independent temperature proxies obtained from a peat deposit at the Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic (N 78°, W 82°) . . .The team constructed a composite mean annual temperature estimate of -0.4°C, suggesting that arctic temperatures were 19.3°C warmer during the Pliocene than they are today. These estimates are also 5-10°C warmer than previous estimates derived from temperature proxies or climate models.The Pliocene is particularly interesting when compared with other ancient intervals of warm global mean temperatures because Pliocene atmospheric CO2 levels are estimated to have been ~390 parts per million by volume, only slightly higher than pre-industrial levels. According to Ballantyne, the findings indicate that global CO2 levels of approximately 400 parts per million by volume are sufficient to produce mean annual temperatures in the High Arctic of approximately 0°C (32°F). At this temperature it is very difficult to form and sustain perennial ice, a defining feature of the present arctic environment.ubi Viddaloo abiit?
Quote from: jai mitchell on January 05, 2017, 05:38:19 AM sorry for the add on but I meant to link this, it is importanthttps://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2010/1/article/886Paleoclimate Project Shows Arctic Temperatures and Ecosystems Highly Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide LevelsQuoteLed by a team from University of Colorado at Boulder and Principal Investigator Ashley Ballantyne, Department of Geological Sciences, this international project sought to develop robust proxy temperature indicators from the Pliocene Epoch (2.6 to 5.3 million years ago), the most recent interval in Earth's history when CO2 levels were comparable to those of today. . . .The team used three independent temperature proxies obtained from a peat deposit at the Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic (N 78°, W 82°) . . .The team constructed a composite mean annual temperature estimate of -0.4°C, suggesting that arctic temperatures were 19.3°C warmer during the Pliocene than they are today. These estimates are also 5-10°C warmer than previous estimates derived from temperature proxies or climate models.The Pliocene is particularly interesting when compared with other ancient intervals of warm global mean temperatures because Pliocene atmospheric CO2 levels are estimated to have been ~390 parts per million by volume, only slightly higher than pre-industrial levels. According to Ballantyne, the findings indicate that global CO2 levels of approximately 400 parts per million by volume are sufficient to produce mean annual temperatures in the High Arctic of approximately 0°C (32°F). At this temperature it is very difficult to form and sustain perennial ice, a defining feature of the present arctic environment.ubi Viddaloo abiit?ice-free Arctic = cause of Greenland melt events = explanation for why Younger Dryas happened so quickly... once you go blue Arctic the counter-effect is a massive discharge of the Greenland ice sheet into the North Atlantic, and likely as another side effect, massive growth of sea ice next to Eurasia in Okhotsk... i wonder if this works to "surround" the surge of warm water into the Arctic with substantially more lower-high-altitude sea ice, isolating it in the Arctic Ocean. it would subsequently end up cooling once Greenland's discharge/etc is enough to stimulate enough sea ice growth in the upper mid-latitudes, but in the intervening years, you see an explanation for Younger Dryas/etc.
A new attack is starting right now. An abundant onslaught of moisture is coming from the Atlantic moving past Iceland and making its way around Svalbard. A train of L-Pressure systems is starting to move up in accordance with the forecast.P.S. 65 km/hr surface winds in the Bering Strait. The front has begun to melt back it appears, instead of compacting. Everything in the Chukchi is starting to look terrible all the way nearly into the Beaufort. I don't exactly know why? The air shows cold temps. I am thinking waves.The water wouldn't heat up as the heat would go toward melting, so it may be warm water being pushed inward.
...ice-free Arctic = cause of Greenland melt events = explanation for why Younger Dryas happened so quickly... once you go blue Arctic the counter-effect is a massive discharge of the Greenland ice sheet into the North Atlantic ...
I'd have to agree Bill!We are not at the end of a glaciation, we've done that bit already and though we may see impacts of melt water on the AMOC and Southern Ocean CO2 sinks we will not see the kind of huge discharge that collapsing Ice age ice sheets provide but just the moderate discharge that West Antarctica /2/3rds of Greenland will provide.
There are certainly no huge freshwater lakes poised to release all at once now.But there is a big difference between the warming rates coming out of the LGM vs now. We are warming so fast now compared to then that the normal melting and calving of the GIS may contribute freshwater at a comparable average rate as happened then.Aren't we about warming about 20 times faster, or is it a hundred?
Exactly... all at once is irrelevant if the rate of warming is substantially worse at the moment vs previous warming events; don't need to accumulate a freshwater lake if a trickle is instead a gushing torrent from the ice sheet itself. If the Arctic goes blue ocean this year I think there is a very decent chance we see a very substantial increase in the annual rate of GIS loss, and if Hansen's models are correct it will be more than sufficient to overwhelm AMOC. & Hansen's models have so far apparently been shown to be conservative...
GIS has many outlets on all sides, meaning the freshwater is spread out