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anotheramethyst

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1900 on: January 14, 2017, 09:43:21 AM »
I have been trying to visualize what a nine meter wave would look like, as these are expected and maybe some larger in the Barents on the 16th and 17th, maybe longer. Nine meters is about thirty feet for those of us more familiar with those terms, and the best thing I can think to compare is the height of a small utility pole. Water in the Barents ranges in temperatures, but right in the center of the warmest current, in the center of expected wave activity as well, the water is about 6.5 or so Celsius and runs deep. How much of this water gets dispersed will play a role in the amount of damage that is to be done to the sea ice.

Approx. 20 to 25 ft wave.

That's good for size, but for people who aren't familiar with the ocean, remember 9 meter swells look very different from 9 meter breakers, and the type of damage they inflict on the ice will also be different.  Picture a boat rocking in a wave that size that's not breaking.  Then picture the ice fracturing from rising up and down, not tumbling in a breaking wave.  Apologies if you already knew this :)

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1901 on: January 14, 2017, 10:06:31 AM »
I can picture a big ship in a 7 meter swell with 6 meter waves.



How does that work with 1-2 meter thick ice?

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1902 on: January 14, 2017, 10:55:29 AM »
recapitulating the current conditions i just said to my wife during the morning coffee, just look at this i think that now the sh...t's gonna hit the fan.

after all we have some kind of plateau in the graphics, both, extent and area and the next big storm is just ahead, which to me means that we shall see further drops and at least shall continue on the plateau for another few days and if there is only one more storm ahead in the near future we could possibly see some albedo effects in some of the peripheral seas that could, in rearview mean that the melting season thread should have stayed open. No pun meant here because of course we are still some time away from the real melting season, but still i think we could be in for surprise to the extent that we shall deal more with whether we gonna cross the 13/13.5M lineinstead of thinking about whether we shall cross 14M. after all the sun is already 3 weeks on the rise and in 2 weeks will start to have an impact in mid latitudes where the warm waters and and winds have to pass and will face less cooling eventually. last but not least the okhotsk as a main contributor to increase in extent has failed for now as predicted, even that loss which, to be honest, i did not really believe to happen to this extent, has become true. ( see my earlier posts on the matter )

charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1903 on: January 14, 2017, 11:52:28 AM »
Best to watch a North Sea storm from a supply vessels perspective....

http://gcaptain.com/watch-boxing-day-storm-north-sea/

Holy s..t !

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1904 on: January 14, 2017, 11:57:28 AM »

That's good for size, but for people who aren't familiar with the ocean, remember 9 meter swells look very different from 9 meter breakers, and the type of damage they inflict on the ice will also be different.  Picture a boat rocking in a wave that size that's not breaking.  Then picture the ice fracturing from rising up and down, not tumbling in a breaking wave.  Apologies if you already knew this :)
I knew the difference in the two, but did not necessarily know what or which to expect from a storm.

oren

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1905 on: January 14, 2017, 12:15:12 PM »
Best to watch a North Sea storm from a supply vessels perspective....

http://gcaptain.com/watch-boxing-day-storm-north-sea/

Holy s..t !
Imagine bein an ice floe, not very thick and not very strong, with this stuff coming right at you. Not a good chance of surviving.

Mark Tough

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1906 on: January 14, 2017, 12:40:29 PM »
Ok! I'll give a prediction

Under 12 mil on the 20th of Jan...

Perhaps not such a big call with a  "Storm-Ageddon Winter Artic eXtermination Event" (SAW-AXE) upon the way to rip up the ice, a tad more than a tad :o

To quote myself embarrassingly - it's going to be big!

charles_oil

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1907 on: January 14, 2017, 01:00:59 PM »
Just looking around for other relevant videos - these visualisation from early 2016 shows the effect that a storm can have on reducing / fracturing the ice

Barents Kara etc Dec/ Jan2106


Beaufort Feb/Mar 2013:

jgnfld

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1908 on: January 14, 2017, 01:50:31 PM »
I was  on a ferry in the Strait of Belle Isle in late March in 1980. 100% ice cover but all pan ice, strong SW winds which did not disperse ice as those straits are an inverted V. My strongest memory is how completely dizzying it was to watch what appeared to the mind to be solid snow/ice fields writhing 2-3 meters.

Well 2nd strongest. Strongest was the sound like being inside an oil drum while some outside beat on it with a hammer.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2017, 02:19:05 PM by jgnfld »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1909 on: January 14, 2017, 03:40:14 PM »
This is really an impressive stall at this point, looking back at NSIDC extent numbers for the last two weeks.
x 106 km2
2016,    12,  30,     12.669,     
2016,    12,  31,     12.608,     
2017,    01,  01,     12.608,     
2017,    01,  02,     12.614,     
2017,    01,  03,     12.705,     
2017,    01,  04,     12.956,     
2017,    01,  05,     12.932,     
2017,    01,  06,     12.843,     
2017,    01,  07,     12.852,     
2017,    01,  08,     12.879,     
2017,    01,  09,     12.847,     
2017,    01,  10,     12.884,     
2017,    01,  11,     13.054,     
2017,    01,  12,     12.869,     
2017,    01,  13,     12.869,

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1910 on: January 14, 2017, 05:26:14 PM »
Quote
Spare me the blowtorches and off-topic premature hand-wringing about next melt season. How do we go best about documenting what this storm actually does?
Good question. Science is not about making claims, it's about making the case. And here we need  solidly documented defensible products, should the storm be newsworthy.

It's probably best to focus first on near real-time high resolution observables (eg Sentinel-1AB), second on simple products we can make directly from those (eg motion of floe features during storm), third on observation-based algorithmic products (eg SMOS thin ice, AMSR2 ice edge, SST, TPW), and fourth on products with only occasional direct observational support (SSS, wave heights, wind, 2 m temperatures), fifth on misleading obsolete products inapplicable to current ice conditions (area, extent: see wayne on ASIB or #1857, #1884, #1890, #1893 here) and lastly on untimely models (eg storm will be long gone by Piomas' mid-Feb release).

Forecasts (eg GFS, ECMWF, Hycom) have value now in alerts but to be replaced by subsequent reanalysis, ie over-write placeholder imagery after 3-4 days. There is some independent interest in monitoring how well they perform in such an unusual event.

It's very important to distinguish between what happened and what we can document to have happened (via minimal inferential chains), what was forecast or expected to happen, and what ought to have happened according to past storms, physics fundamentals, models, older scientific papers and offbeat personal theories.

Forums can be effective collaborations -- many hands make light work. So who is going to do what to help monitor the storm? The trick is making it near real-time. After we have all the pieces, it's easy put them together. At that point it makes sense to discuss the consequences.

Below is an extensible AMSR2/SMOS side-by-side product (with regional variants at higher resolution, shown earlier) that is easily updatable over the course of the storm. If you can volunteer to adopt and maintain a storm-applicable product that you know well -- now is the time to get a placeholder going.

Some new composite thickness products are up and running today over at the Piomas forum starting with wipneus posting the long awaited December daily and December multi-year comparisons.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg99165.html#msg99165 (and next ten)



« Last Edit: January 14, 2017, 06:45:37 PM by A-Team »

Cate

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1911 on: January 14, 2017, 07:17:28 PM »
I was  on a ferry in the Strait of Belle Isle in late March in 1980. 100% ice cover but all pan ice, strong SW winds which did not disperse ice as those straits are an inverted V. My strongest memory is how completely dizzying it was to watch what appeared to the mind to be solid snow/ice fields writhing 2-3 meters.

Well 2nd strongest. Strongest was the sound like being inside an oil drum while some outside beat on it with a hammer.

Hey, similar to my experience! I was on the summit of Round Head at L'Anse aux Meadows at dusk in mid-July 1974. That was quite a year for ice, as you may recall. Pack ice stretched all the way to the horizon, north and north eastwards. Swells of 2 m or so rippled that entire expanse of ice so dizzyingly I almost needed Gravol, and the sound---like nothing I'd ever heard before, like a hoarse roar from a million nonhuman throats, as all those ice pans crashed and rubbed together---deafening and truly unforgettable.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1912 on: January 14, 2017, 07:29:26 PM »
The ECMWF and the GFS now agree on a second storm bombing in the Barents about 5 days out. The ice pack will be hit by many days of winds and waves.

Moreover, the wind pattern will speed up ice export out of the Fram strait.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1913 on: January 14, 2017, 09:15:47 PM »
We are now seeing a possible SSW ( Sudden stratospheric warming ) toward the end of the month now. This might serve to build a high over the basin for a period? With the pack taking a beating how would this 'settled period' play out over the pack? would we see rotation of the ice and so further mechanical weathering/fracturing of the ice just prior to sun up again?

Just a thought but ,after last years record early 'final warming' dare we believe that if this SSW does arrive it could prove to be an even earlier 'final warming' and so usher us out of winter as far as the strat is concerned?
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aslan

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1914 on: January 14, 2017, 11:55:48 PM »
We are now seeing a possible SSW ( Sudden stratospheric warming ) toward the end of the month now. This might serve to build a high over the basin for a period? With the pack taking a beating how would this 'settled period' play out over the pack? would we see rotation of the ice and so further mechanical weathering/fracturing of the ice just prior to sun up again?

Just a thought but ,after last years record early 'final warming' dare we believe that if this SSW does arrive it could prove to be an even earlier 'final warming' and so usher us out of winter as far as the strat is concerned?

SSW is really not a given. There is another factor, the QBO. Still in westerly phase, and no one knowing what the hell is going on with the QBO. The easterly phase which should have been starting at 10 hPa now seems to be at least delayed. And after the epic fail of the QBO last year, what is happening regarding the QBO is anyone guess. Westerly QBO are often not favorable to SSW. Models are showing strong wave 1 activity but still nothing reaching the definition of SSW (a reversal of westerlies at 10 hPa). Stratosphere will probably be disrupted in the coming weeks, but a "true" SSW with a broken vortex and a strong AO- seems really uncertain. I am hopping for a SSW with some snow and cold where I lived, but this is still a very uncertain outcome. A worst case scenario, with a weak displacement having weak effects followed by an early SFW following strong waves activity in stratosphere, associated with an early onset of the Spring, seems a far more likely outcome.

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1915 on: January 15, 2017, 12:31:07 AM »
Ok! I'll give a prediction

Under 12 mil on the 20th of Jan...

Perhaps not such a big call with a  "Storm-Ageddon Winter Artic eXtermination Event" (SAW-AXE) upon the way to rip up the ice, a tad more than a tad :o

To quote myself embarrassingly - it's going to be big!

You want to watch predictions...  They are not always well accepted... ;D ;D ;D

The melting thread in June.

I was, of course, talking about melting and not freezing.  But at least you are flowing downstream...
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1916 on: January 15, 2017, 01:20:48 AM »
Yeah, like this prediction by a newbie greenhorn.

Quote
author=Tigertown link=topic=1493.msg79701#msg79701 date=1465495341]
Heatwaves of unprecedented duration are predicted all summer for the U.K. and other parts of Europe. The U.S. has one spreading across it now.Record areas of ocean water are now 86 F plus. Wildfires are on a pace to release astronomical amounts of energy this year, burning in Alaska, Canada, and Siberia,with smaller ones elsewhere. I don't know how fast whatever portion of this energy that will make its way there will get to the Arctic, but I  don't think this year is to be compared to any previous one. I think however low the extent gets by September, there will definitely be a record low maximum to follow early next year.

From the melting season thread-------June, 2016
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 04:59:59 PM by Tigertown »

Mark Tough

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1917 on: January 15, 2017, 11:17:59 AM »
Yes Neil T & Tigertown - agree, sometimes I can't help a humorous little prediction. Thanks for the heads up though, I've actually been a Multi Year Lurker (MYL)  :D  and do get that unsubstantiated predictions can be a tad annoying.

One day (I keep saying) I'll put some time in to ice numbers as I'm an analyst by trade and try and come up with genuine insight, although you all do such a brilliant job, which is why I continue to come here.

We do cover all the colours on the autism spectrum at the ASIF however and double that up with English as a second Language, for many, mean attempts at humour do sometimes get more rational replies than they deserve. :)

Keep on keeping on boys and girls and lets hold on to our hats in the next week or so!

magnamentis

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1918 on: January 15, 2017, 12:30:02 PM »
Ok! I'll give a prediction

Under 12 mil on the 20th of Jan...

Perhaps not such a big call with a  "Storm-Ageddon Winter Artic eXtermination Event" (SAW-AXE) upon the way to rip up the ice, a tad more than a tad :o

To quote myself embarrassingly - it's going to be big!

You want to watch predictions...  They are not always well accepted... ;D ;D ;D

The melting thread in June.

I was, of course, talking about melting and not freezing.  But at least you are flowing downstream...

i just went through that entire page and i must say it was a pleasure, that was back then when only a few saw this coming what happens now and yes, it was not always well taken and even now i receive some interesting feedback at times when pointing at exactly that kind of discussions. i'm very glad that there is some common sense now, the reading got way more pleasant and we can more concentrate on the facts and analysis instead of churning in defense mode :-)

bairgon

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1919 on: January 15, 2017, 03:10:34 PM »
This 1st year lurker is looking for something to watch over the next few days with the impending GAC.

I've been looking at the polynya at the top of Nares, and have seen that ice motion in Nares Strait reverses when the wind is blowing up the strait (about 220 degrees).

Currently there is an area of about 100km x 100km in the Lincoln sea at the top of the Strait which shows many leads. See http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/201701150728.NOAA.jpg (from 15th Jan at 07:28).

Given the impending GAC, I've looked at the wind forecast in this area, using an arbitrary location of 82.47N, 58.85W. The wind swings to 220 degrees from 9am (UTC) on Monday, then starts building to a peak of 70km/h on midday on Wednesday 18th - see https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/18/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-37.40,79.84,1981/loc=-58.850,82.470.

It is still blowing at 30km/h at the limit of the nullschool forecast.

Given that the strait has a long distance which has broken ice, thanks to a large floe which partially blocked the entrance for a day or so (see http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg98743.html#msg98743) then there will probably be some significant wave generation.

The calculator at http://planetcalc.com/4442/ shows that wave height into the polynya will be around 3 metres. That could help cause some significant damage at the back of the stationary ice, helping to break it up and push it out towards Fram.

Neven

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1920 on: January 15, 2017, 04:11:34 PM »
Another short animation showing the ECMWF forecast for day 2-5. Storm pressure forecast to be 961-953-958/966-977/956 hPa, with SLP for that second storm behind the slash for day 3 and 4:
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1921 on: January 15, 2017, 04:16:17 PM »
I wonder what will it be to Greenland ice sheet without the protection of sea ice. Also the Antarctic ice sheet without the sea ice around.

Suppose the Antarctic sea ice is melting out or approximately melting out, will the external heat be transported to north hemisphere and push the arctic melt season much early? Because when the sea ice melts out in Antarctic, the heat transfer through the air between warm atmosphere with the Antarctic icesheet may be cannot offset the additional heat immediately, therfore more heat will be transported to north Hemiphere and influence the arctic refreezing season. 
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 04:24:31 PM by peterlvmeng »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1922 on: January 15, 2017, 04:30:45 PM »
Antarctica sea ice should start re-freezing again in about six weeks or so. If not, then we have bigger problems than we know.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1923 on: January 15, 2017, 04:37:22 PM »
Quote
looking for something to watch over the next few days with the impending GAC
Yes, this storm could be hugely important, so it's best if we stayed on-topic which for this forum is the 2016/2017 freezing season, not self-indulgent speculation about next Sept (post instead on an autism forum as MarkT suggested).

Waves breaking up ice, wave washing over ice, or waves stirring up heat from below are increasingly important but, unless specifically tied in to this storm or this freezing season, more appropriate to the "Importance of Waves" forum maintained by Jim Hunt.

Think about coming back to this forum during a Jan 2018 storm, wishing there were more  comparative resources on the Jan 2017 event, rather than page after page of off-topic chatter.

As mentioned, to monitor the storm in near real-time, it is probably most efficient to develop storm templates for the main daily products here. These would run from Jan 1st out to the current date of Jan 15th and be easily updatable. A few of the options there are shown below.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 05:19:02 PM by A-Team »

logicmanPatrick

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1924 on: January 15, 2017, 04:40:49 PM »
peterlvmeng:

Quote
when the sea ice melts out in Antarctic, the heat transfer through the air between warm atmosphere with the Antarctic icesheet may be cannot offset the additional heat immediately, therfore more heat will be transported to north Hemiphere and influence the arctic refreezing season. 

The heat transport between poles is exceedingly slow.

Quote
The response of the Southern Ocean is slow compared to the Atlantic temperature seesaw, reflecting the relatively strong separation of the Southern Ocean / Antarctic part of the climate system from the remaining global circulation system.

http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/climatechange/modelling_dynamics/bipolar_seesaw/
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DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1925 on: January 15, 2017, 05:04:51 PM »
peterlvmeng:

Quote
when the sea ice melts out in Antarctic, the heat transfer through the air between warm atmosphere with the Antarctic icesheet may be cannot offset the additional heat immediately, therfore more heat will be transported to north Hemiphere and influence the arctic refreezing season. 

The heat transport between poles is exceedingly slow.

Quote
The response of the Southern Ocean is slow compared to the Atlantic temperature seesaw, reflecting the relatively strong separation of the Southern Ocean / Antarctic part of the climate system from the remaining global circulation system.

http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/climatechange/modelling_dynamics/bipolar_seesaw/

Good . More heat for the northern hemisphere! Yay

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1926 on: January 15, 2017, 05:20:14 PM »
I am no expert, but my take on it, is that it is the warm and moist heat from the Equatorial region that we need to be worried about, as the sun generates this flow pretty much year round, regardless to season, and nowadays so much of it makes it's way to the Arctic. In the long run, it seems the storms born from this will cause more detriment to the Arctic than direct insolation, or at least as much.

EDIT: I departed from here and almost immediately came across this.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 05:40:58 PM by Tigertown »

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1927 on: January 15, 2017, 05:46:56 PM »
 Check this out for the GFS on the 19th.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1928 on: January 15, 2017, 06:11:26 PM »
My spidee senses are tingling! I'm wondering what this year will bring for the Strat? with forecasts telling us to expect an SSW at months end just what should we expect ( if we can trust forecasts any more after the failed QBO flip last year?).

Last year saw a record early warming over the pole , just before that we saw a freak ozone hole open up over the UK ( due to gasses being pushed around) and before that the weird QBO carry on with the westerlies descending and then returning up.

So , should we trust that this forecast perturbation at face value or could it be something a little more sinister? Could it even prove to be a final warming 4 weeks ahead of last years 'record early' Final warming?

With the storms about to hit it will be something else to keep an eye on as we move closer to the forecast time?
KOYAANISQATSI

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A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1929 on: January 15, 2017, 07:22:32 PM »
Quote
day 2-5. Storm pressure forecast to be 961-953-958/966-977/956 hPa
Here is a storm template for ecmwf 15-25 Jan 2017, the 500 mb geopotential height contours over MSLP sea level pressure provided by tropical tidbits. Yet another outstanding effort by a graduate student. (Where are all the professors? Still sending paper faxes, that's where.)

Some brisk winds and warm air in store according to gfs nullschool. The final template might better double up and over wind and temperatures but here some noteworthy cyclones in the Bering Sea seemed worth including.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 07:48:32 PM by A-Team »

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1930 on: January 15, 2017, 07:23:50 PM »
Antarctica sea ice should start re-freezing again in about six weeks or so. If not, then we have bigger problems than we know.

What do we know about what is happening with the Hadley and Mid-Latitude Cells in the Southern Hemisphere?  Personally, I think the driver is the ocean, but the bands of circulation are going to be the evidence.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1931 on: January 15, 2017, 07:25:05 PM »
Here is a storm template for ecmwf 15-25 Jan 2017, the 500 mb geopotential height contours over MSLP sea level pressure provided by tropical tidbits. Yet another outstanding effort by a graduate student. (Where are all the professors? Still sending paper faxes, that's where.)

writing grant proposals, typically, so they can pay young bright students.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1932 on: January 15, 2017, 07:40:19 PM »
Quote
day 2-5. Storm pressure forecast to be 961-953-958/966-977/956 hPa
Here is a storm template for ecmwf 15-25 Jan 2017, the 500 mb geopotential height contours over MSLP sea level pressure provided by tropical tidbits. Yet another outstanding effort by a graduate student. (Where are all the professors? Still sending paper faxes, that's where.)

Wow! Atlantic Low Pressure cannon is firing on all cylinders.

Jim Williams

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1933 on: January 15, 2017, 07:46:28 PM »
Quote
day 2-5. Storm pressure forecast to be 961-953-958/966-977/956 hPa
Here is a storm template for ecmwf 15-25 Jan 2017, the 500 mb geopotential height contours over MSLP sea level pressure provided by tropical tidbits. Yet another outstanding effort by a graduate student. (Where are all the professors? Still sending paper faxes, that's where.)

Wow! Atlantic Low Pressure cannon is firing on all cylinders.

Translation:  Polar Cell is almost gone -- if not completely gone.

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1934 on: January 15, 2017, 07:52:26 PM »
No high to be seen....

Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1935 on: January 15, 2017, 07:55:14 PM »
Along that line, here is one for two weeks out. I know everyone says that the GFS is not accurate that far out, but just considering  the very idea that the conditions for this pattern will continue into the foreseeable future is sobering.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1936 on: January 15, 2017, 09:11:50 PM »
Here is a storm template showing 15 days of Fram export and melt/consolidation along the Svalbard-FJI front, from Sentinel-1AB mosaics at DTU (R Saldo). Greenland is 45º CW from the down position in order to show a swath from Morris Jesup to Franz Josef, ie a flux gate orthogonal to the floe.

It is sometimes easier to track features with companion false color; all the images are reduced from higher resolution to fit the forum while retaining a nearly complete flux gate coverage

Recall the ultimate ice pack age movie 1990-2016 is very effective with once a week scenes: it runs to the end of November and appears in the 2016 Arctic Report Card (view in full screen mode). That provides our contextual baseline for the storm, in effect we wish to extend the .mov through late January (which isn't feasible as formatted).

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/old-ice-arctic-vanishingly-rare

It seems that a block of rather thick ice disappeared there on about 16 Dec 16, ie this Atlantic Water front north of the Barents sea is providing a major sink for pack ice this year. (The feature in question is just to the left of the dates.)

« Last Edit: January 16, 2017, 10:11:57 AM by A-Team »

Hefaistos

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1937 on: January 15, 2017, 09:23:58 PM »

Translation:  Polar Cell is almost gone -- if not completely gone.

An interesting aspect of the Hadley cell in relation to the other two cells, is that it behaves very differently over the Northern Atlantic than over land, or over the Pacific. So, can we talk of the extension of the Hadley cell only over the Atlantic, and the collapse of the other two cells only in the sector to the North of the Atlantic?
Further, if the Hadley cell extends in this sector, can it be expected to extend to the North also over land, as a result of that change?
Maybe should be moved to stupid questions thread...

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1938 on: January 15, 2017, 10:03:16 PM »
Again I'd say look to how the strat and the trop work together.

We have some very odd Strat expressions, over the past year, and this must be tied to the tropospheric extremes ( some folk link the Nino to the QBO refusal to reverse?) we are ever more exposed to?

If the strat impacts weather patterns in the trop then a messed up/'in flux' strat could be part of an atmospheric reorganisation into a new 2 cell system ( Hadley/Polar)?

If there is a semi stable pattern where the northern hemisphere is more 'comfortable' with a simpler, faster reacting, seasonal organisation then maybe we are seeing the rapid evolution of a 'two cell' hemisphere with one Jet?
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1939 on: January 15, 2017, 10:25:10 PM »
Again I'd say look to how the strat and the trop work together.

We have some very odd Strat expressions, over the past year, and this must be tied to the tropospheric extremes ( some folk link the Nino to the QBO refusal to reverse?) we are ever more exposed to?

If the strat impacts weather patterns in the trop then a messed up/'in flux' strat could be part of an atmospheric reorganisation into a new 2 cell system ( Hadley/Polar)?

If there is a semi stable pattern where the northern hemisphere is more 'comfortable' with a simpler, faster reacting, seasonal organisation then maybe we are seeing the rapid evolution of a 'two cell' hemisphere with one Jet?

Bifurcation states of the climate

A bifurcation occurs when two very different stable states exist at a single period of time.  It is this system that a 'tipping point' effects to rapidly (sometimes instantly) change conditions to a different state. 

I have been putting some thought lately into the idea that the instantaneous potential impacts of anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions has on the climate would necessarily prove that we are currently operating within a global bifurcated climate.  Even if anthropogenic sulfate and nitrate emissions have a lower case impact.  This impact is a significant portion of the total forcing from GHG abundances in the atmosphere.  These aerosols only last in the atmosphere on the order of 2 weeks after emissions.

many recent papers indicate that these emissions have very large impacts.  For example, we understand that tropical upper troposphere water vapor and rain is greatly impacted by asian emissions.  Similarly, pacfic surface wind patterns are also greatly impacted, leading to a strong positive PDO (El Nino) signal if they are rapidly removed.  Finally, a potentially large but currently uncharacterized impact to the regional tropopause height by these cooling pollutants is understood and now appears to be a very significant impact with regard to the expansion of the Hadley Cell and tropical water vapor to the mid-latitudes.

Since these aerosols must necessarily be removed as we reduce carbon emissions, and they are already causing political unrest due to air pollution issues in China, we must accept that we are currently living in a 'goldilocks' climate state.  The OTHER state is already in existence.  When these pollutants are removed, there will be an instantaneous shift to a completely different global atmospheric climate circulation with secondary feedbacks that cannot be completely quantified today.

There is significant indication that we have already pushed the climate into a potential equable state once these aerosols are removed.  This is especially true when ESS long-term impacts like albedo and carbon cycle impacts are realized.

in view of this, the state of what is a rational response to climate change has become one of last-resort, no options should be left off of the table. 
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Tigertown

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1940 on: January 15, 2017, 10:50:50 PM »
Since these aerosols must necessarily be removed as we reduce carbon emissions, and they are already causing political unrest due to air pollution issues in China, we must accept that we are currently living in a 'goldilocks' climate state.  The OTHER state is already in existence.  When these pollutants are removed, there will be an instantaneous shift to a completely different global atmospheric climate circulation with secondary feedbacks that cannot be completely quantified today.

Many countries are already taking at least some steps in this regard. People are suffocating inside their own homes in some countries. No doubt the needs that are considered to be immediate will get more attention than the overall consequences. I say "considered immediate" because the results from the absence of this aerosols will be more immediate than thought to be possible.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1941 on: January 15, 2017, 11:30:49 PM »
Hmm, seems we have much more to learn about all the different kinds of aerosols and their net effect on cooling/heating and water vapor transference in the atmosphere - both altitudinally and longitudinally.  So indeed more research here is badly needed before entertaining any serious thoughts of geo-engineering.

On another note.  I noticed that Windytv displays GFS wind direction much differently than Null School.  In the gif below (forecast for 17th 10am), notice the substantial difference between the two in terms of wind direction north of Greenland.  I also noticed that Windytv seems to do spacial interpolation by using a more coarser 10 degree data set versus Null School which uses 5 degree intervals.  You can test this in either product by clicking on (sampling) multiple places within a cyclone's wind field - note how the wind direction only updates in 10 degree increments on Windytv and 5 on Null School.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1942 on: January 16, 2017, 11:10:41 AM »
Quote
winds don't agree between nullschool and windytv
Nice. It seems we can't take wind depictions at face value.

The oddity here is that the kitesurfer behind windtv is not going all-in on his main interest, wind. Note that ECMWF is provided (unlike at nullschool) as well as GF, enabling a three-way comparison.

Windytv was a mighty fine effort on the coding side, taking apart and repurpose nullschool open source. This may encourage others to do the same, for example flow line sprites for sea ice movement.

Meanwhile, data vs models, what can be done by way of reality check? In terms of a storm template, GWK Moore chases down the situation for meteorological Arctic Ocean (IABP) buoys for the huge event in late December 2015 in the open source article below. This was published independently of the research-grade L Boisvert analysis of the same storm; N-ICE2015 treats six other winter and spring storms during their drift.

In a nutshell, the weather station at Ny-Ålesund (near Longyearben, Svalbard) has the long term weather records and daily radiosondes. It is the closest such station to the north pole. Nord, Greenland also has online weather and wind (~66 kph currently) as does Kap Morris Jesup and various land sites along the CAA and coastal Alaska.

However, it is only with in situ buoys that ocean wind can measured; here it seems few (or none) of these are currently operational. Without tie points in this vast region, nothing great (or rather nothing verifiable) can be expected from either GFS or ECMWF, even in reanalysis.

Only the wind at the surface moves the ice; upper winds might advect warmth and moisture but don't affect export.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5157030/ Moore 2016
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/greenland/station-nord
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0234.1 Boisvert 2016

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1943 on: January 16, 2017, 12:05:22 PM »
Storm analysis should marginally benchmark export through the Nares Strait. The focus usually is on the Fram and Svalbard-FJI front; for this storm, remarkable export out the Bering Strait is also anticipated by Hycom. (That will require clear weather on puffin-feeder imagery or low-res microwave as Sentinel-1AB rarely covers the Chukchi.)

Nares however proves quite astonishing -- the ice is cornering Ellesmere Island with a developing local coastal CAA current with a clear shear line peeling back ice to be exported from essentially stationary Lincoln Sea ice, the process seemingly accelerating in the last few days. DMI provides a daily series of Sentinel-1AB for the mouth of the Nares Strait, so an easily extensible storm monitoring template, so far for 01-14 Jan 17.

There has been clear weather recently and complimentary imagery with precision date stamps from NOAA AVHRR at DMI Lincoln in the full size image inset. These are not mosaics so subtracting UTC times then allows velocities as displacement in km / time between scenes in hours. However image geometry is slightly off co-registration.

The broader sweep along the CAA provided by DTU Saldo Sentinel-1AB mosaics shows the entire ice pack lifting off poleward, rather than garlic-pressing south. This process too seems to have picked up speed in the last 2-3 days. The gray wedges are gaps in mosaic coverage.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/nord.uk.php Lincoln series

Technical note: These are sub-optimal in contrast space, presented as RGB when in fact 7-bit grayscale (down from the original 16-bit). However they are correctly co-registered despite the land aspect flopping around with satellite viewing angle (being a mix of 1A and 1B). The interval between frames is not strictly 24 hours; timestamps are not provided.

After cropping to forum width, the 14 frames are tiled into 1 which is processed for adaptive contrast in ImageJ in one step and resliced back in gimp and saved with animation time delay of 140 ms. Unlike .mov a .gif  file can readily be downloaded and viewed locally for step-by-step analysis or run at a slower speed.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2017, 01:36:48 PM by A-Team »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1944 on: January 16, 2017, 12:45:24 PM »
Storm analysis should marginally benchmark export through the Nares Strait. The focus usually is on the Fram and Svalbard-FJI front; for this storm, remarkable export out the Bering Strait is also anticipated by Hycom. (That will require clear weather on puffin-feeder imagery or low-res microwave as Sentinel-1AB rarely covers the Chukchi.)


A short note should also be dedicated to the transport of ice into the Arctic proper from Kara sea (whatever survives the waves etc), which has been going on already for more than a week and it will keep very strong due to these storms.
(sim from Jan 07 to Jan 22)

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1945 on: January 16, 2017, 01:13:26 PM »
Nares however proves quite astonishing -- the ice is cornering Ellesmere Island with a developing local coastal CAA current with a clear shear line peeling back ice to be exported from essentially stationary Lincoln Sea ice.

I've been watching that for quite a while, and found that it started on 7th Dec 2016. As posted at http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg97431.html#msg97431 though it collapsed with Storm Barbara around 21st Dec. The NOAA image from 19th December - http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/201612191227.NOAA.jpg - shows a much larger open area than currently.

As noted in the Nares Strait thread at http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg97845.html#msg97845 in the first week of January flow reversed or was staionary, due to wind blowing up the Strait. A paper by Andreas Muenchow in 2016 at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0093.1 states

Quote
Local winds contribute only when the sea ice is mobile, when they explain 60%
of its variance

Hence my post yesterday at http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg99284.html#msg99284. I expect export from Nares to stop when the wind reverses up the Strait with the GAC (starting about now), and for the polynya to expand as the ice is pushed eastwards for a few days.

Edit: Different topic: Nullschool is now showing a 951 hPa low in the Barents sea at midday 20th Jan. See https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/20/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-13.49,78.98,1821/loc=49.374,69.825
« Last Edit: January 16, 2017, 01:25:11 PM by bairgon »

NeilT

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1946 on: January 16, 2017, 01:23:21 PM »
Personally, I think the driver is the ocean, but the bands of circulation are going to be the evidence.

Interesting thought.   I was reading the wunderground Hurricane blog to see how the late season was trending (drivers for all these storms), when I noticed that in the middle of the aricle on which Jeff was musing on an icy weekend for central plains, he talks about La Nina being virtually dead already and the chances of the Pacific moving back to an El Nino bias being quite reasonable.

That should be quite a significant forcing factor in the current winter.  Although, initially, it might bring a fine covering of thin ice over a larger area in the depths of the winter growth.  Only to be demolished in the spring.
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Sterks

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1947 on: January 16, 2017, 02:59:59 PM »
The storm has appeared in the Canada Weather Information service chart at 00Z today for the first time. Six hours later the lowest pressure level of this storm was 961 hPa
It would be interesting to understand the cyclogenesis of this particular storm. The NE corner of Greenland is a very special location, isobars take the most peculiar shapes there at many other times.

A-Team

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1948 on: January 16, 2017, 03:05:35 PM »
Here is a potential storm template for the Bering Straits in lieu of visible imagery. Export of Chukchi ice has already begun. The ice may be replaced by thicker ice from the central ice pack which may put it at risk in still somewhat warm waters of the Chukchi. ADS-Jaxa goes out an extra day and additional predicted Hycom days out to Jan 23rd.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2017, 03:12:51 PM by A-Team »

Archimid

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Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« Reply #1949 on: January 16, 2017, 03:34:26 PM »
A-team I was just looking at the Bering in null school. For the next five days it should experience very cold air and possibly ice export from the straight.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-175.96,57.42,1428/loc=-173.194,61.407

 The SSTA is high to the western part of the Bering and low to the east, along the Alaskan coast.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_newdisp_anomaly_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png

 An observer at latitude 62 north will receive 5.9 hours of daylight on January 16.

http://astro.unl.edu/classaction/animations/coordsmotion/daylighthoursexplorer.html


I think any ice that gets exported to the western Bering will rapidly melt but will also lower SST significantly. Ice that gets exported east might help the eastern side grow. If ice from the east of the Bering continues to grow and the west gets cooled down by melt, then the Bering might close before the end of the freezing season.  To me the wild card here is potential albedo warming.
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