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What will the ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September daily minimum be?

Above 5.0  million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.0 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.5 and 4.75 million km2
3 (3.6%)
Between 4.25 and 4.5 million km2
6 (7.1%)
Between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2
19 (22.6%)
Between 3.75 and 4.0 million km2
23 (27.4%)
Between 3.5 and 3.75 million km2
10 (11.9%)
Between 3.25 and 3.5 million km2
6 (7.1%)
Between 3.0 and 3.25 million km2
6 (7.1%)
Between 2.75 and 3.0 million km2
6 (7.1%)
Between 2.5 and 2.75 million km2
1 (1.2%)
Between 2.25 and 2.5 million km2
1 (1.2%)
Between 2.0 and 2.25 million km2
1 (1.2%)
Between 1.75 and 2.0 million km2
1 (1.2%)
Between 1.5 and 1.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 1.25 and 1.5 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 1.0 and 1.25 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.75 and 1.0 million km2
1 (1.2%)
Between 0.5 and 0.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.25 and 0.5 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.0 and 0.25 million km2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 81

Voting closed: August 11, 2016, 04:08:49 AM

Author Topic: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll  (Read 15795 times)

Juan C. García

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ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« on: August 01, 2016, 04:08:49 AM »
August has started and it is the time to do the last 2016 IJIS/NIPR poll!  :)

This ADS Arctic Sea Ice Extent (ADS also known as IJIS, NIPR and JAXA) poll will run for 10 days. Until then you can change your vote.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various ADS-IJIS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2016, 12:34:15 AM by Neven »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2016, 04:40:05 AM »
My guess is to approximate 2007 (2nd or 3rd place).  Dispersal seems to be greater than in recent years, and late season bottom melt may 'surprise' us.  A genuine GAC with upwelling warm salty water could do a number on the ice.  And a month with a gathering-in-the-ice CAB high would bring extent numbers down.

But a 5th place finish is also very possible, too!
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Juan C. García

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2016, 04:49:40 AM »
My guess is to approximate 2007 (2nd or 3rd place).  Dispersal seems to be greater than in recent years, and late season bottom melt may 'surprise' us.  A genuine GAC with upwelling warm salty water could do a number on the ice.  And a month with a gathering-in-the-ice CAB high would bring extent numbers down.

But a 5th place finish is also very possible, too!

I agree with your comments, but lets say that I will be a little less conservative. I give more importance to the vulnerability that I see on the Arctic Sea Ice, so even that the actual tendency could be 4.00-4.25 (or even 4.25-4.50), I will go with 3.75-4.00.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2016, 04:56:59 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

slow wing

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2016, 09:49:46 AM »
I dropped down one bin from last month's poll, to 2.50-2.75 million square kilometres.

I consider July to have been bad for the ice. The Pacific side ice got a real working over from a procession of storms through storm alley, from the Siberian side through to the Beaufort Sea.

Now all the ice is drifting around in the wind, with little mechanical strength apparent in the ice pack even in the multi-year ice sanctuary off the Canadian Arctic coast.

Wipneus' plot shows a rough parity with the same dates last year in the fraction of ice covered in melt ponds, that is despite the usual cooling effect of the low pressure systems.

  So the ice to me at this date looks worse than on any previous year in the satellite record. Hence my prediction of a record low, beating the 2012 mark of 3.18 million square kilometres.


  Is this poll really going to run for another 12 days? In my assessment the ice is 'falling off a cliff' in these days and I expect the Pacific side in particular to look much worse by the time this poll closes.

Neven

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2016, 12:53:02 PM »
Thanks again for setting up the poll, Juan.  :)

I'm dropping one bin compared to last month to 4.0-4.25. I may go one bin lower if extent drops fiercely in the next 10 days.
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Neven

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2016, 01:06:55 PM »
NSIDC September SIE poll is up too! Vote, vote, vote, everyone!  :)
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pauldry600

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2016, 01:20:56 PM »
4.3million. Said from day one n not changing

Thawing Thunder

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2016, 02:11:47 PM »
I see it drop below 4 million and choose the less conservative numbers of 3,5-3,75 million - where I see it rather in the upper area of that guess. In fact I changed between that number and 3,75-4,0 million several times until settling in favor of the lower bet.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2016, 01:21:21 PM by Thawing Thunder »
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2016, 03:06:46 PM »
Whatever corresponds on this measure to about 4.25 on the NASA Team measure. (All the data threads are a right mess at the moment so I've rather lost track of how the different measures vary)

Neven

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2016, 03:55:53 PM »
In the opening post you can see minimums for years in the past decade.
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Juan C. García

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2016, 04:11:54 PM »
Whatever corresponds on this measure to about 4.25 on the NASA Team measure. (All the data threads are a right mess at the moment so I've rather lost track of how the different measures vary)

I would say that 4.25 on the NASA Team measure, correspond to 4.00 on this poll. There are two reasons:
1) IJIS uses a differente satellite and my personal opinion (I have to prove it right later) is that IJIS is commonly lower than NSIDC.
2) I don´t like the way that NSIDC calculates it's monthly average, so I prefer to ask for a daily minimum (like in this poll), instead of a monthly average. Of course, a daily minimum is lower than the monthly average.

Edit: NSIDC 2007 and 2012 September monthly average are 4.30 and 3.63 million km2, while IJIS 2007 and 2012 September daily minimum are 4.07 and 3.18.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2016, 04:30:44 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

seaicesailor

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2016, 04:38:35 PM »
I stay at 3.5 - 3.75 M km2
Probably I err on the low side but take it as a 'lower than 2007, higher that 2012'

magnamentis

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2016, 08:46:50 PM »
I stay at 3.5 - 3.75 M km2
Probably I err on the low side but take it as a 'lower than 2007, higher that 2012'

+1

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2016, 09:15:52 PM »
I started at 2.75 - 3, bumped up one to 3 - 3.25, and I am staying there.  I think this weekend will be the proof of the pudding for this season.
FNORD

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2016, 01:15:15 AM »
Expect extent daily minima between 4.14 - 4.19.  There may be a double minima separated by a few days of bouncing along the bottom.  Final number 4.159.  This number may change in the next few days depending on compaction.  Continuation of low pressure systems and dispersal will raise my estimate by 10k - 20k.  A mild compaction event is already factored into the existing estimate.

philiponfire

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2016, 02:52:38 AM »
I am staying with 2.75 to 3.00. ( have now amended this to 3.00 to 3.25) that original vote wa a bit too pessimistic for the ice this year.
Here is why. We started the melting season with a lot of early melt such that things were way ahead at the end of May.
The ice was already to a large extent pulverised but the volume models were still saying and indeed still do say that there is a greater volume of ice than in 2012.
The volume issue does not make  a bit of sense to me. surely the greater the volume the greater the ice thickness , generally speaking unless there is a large additional extent (which there was not at this time).
Then we had June and what most people have labelled as being a slow down. Why was that? Well we did get a huge level of dispersal and that can translate into extent but it is a "false" extent. At that time of year I do not think that anyone is claiming that there has been a large increase in the physical amount of ice are they?  But where did all that dispersed ice go? it went into the peripheral seas into warmer water where it has or will melt.
So June ended with a relatively small "measured" extent reduction compared to 2012. But still very much in the game if you want to insist on "melt momentum".

July has seen a steady march of melting ice and yet more dispersal and the end of "big block" so that on the first of August the ice in all of the peripheral seas has either gone or is smashed into slush with a few still quite large ice cubes floating in it.
The southern route of the North West passage is looking quite navigable on the U Hamburg graphic although I am sure that there are still more than a few chunks there ready to destroy a careless navigator. Nates strait is fully mobile, Barents sea is ice free. Hudson bay and Baffin bay are going to melt out as much as they ever do.
The central arctic has some large polynyas in it already and the largest clearly defined floe that I have seen in recent days was under 20km in any dimension. The ice north of Greenland still does have more structure than on the Siberian side but it is very much in small pieces that a good wind is going to move around and into places where it will come to harm.
The Greenland sea is doing its normal thing.
All in all I expect a less than 4.00 figure as being the top end and unless we get some tranquil weather conducive to ice retention then my 3.00- 3.25 figure seems all too possible.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2016, 02:59:06 PM by philiponfire »

Archimid

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2016, 03:55:46 AM »
  But where did all that dispersed ice go? it went into the peripheral seas into warmer water where it has or will melt.

True, but it also served to lower albedo for the areas of the arctic that received the most sunlight, the peripheral seas. Even if the ice in the periphery is doomed, I imagine it served the purpose of lowering the accumulation of solar energy. That is probably a good thing.

Maybe in the coming years when if there is a concerted effort to save the arctic, that is one of the techniques that can be used. Somehow nudging continents worth of floating ice towards places in the arctic where the micro climate they generate can do the most good.


Edit: I voted 4.25 -4.5. I think the chance of hitting 0 is sufficiently low to might as well be 0. I think we ducked one. There is however a significant chance of having no ice at the North Pole by September, with the arctic split in two or three parts. If the north pole is ice free by minimum, then I expect a delay in the freezing season, followed by the fastest growth ever recorded, then stalling again.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2016, 04:02:58 AM by Archimid »
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Feeltheburn

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2016, 04:15:53 AM »
As before I voted at the higher end of the poll. Out of respect for Bernie Sanders and those who like him but dislike my opinions I changed my profile pic to a more apt meaning of "feel the burn".
« Last Edit: August 02, 2016, 04:21:54 AM by Feeltheburn »
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum: August poll
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2016, 07:48:22 PM »

Edit: NSIDC 2007 and 2012 September monthly average are 4.30 and 3.63 million km2, while IJIS 2007 and 2012 September daily minimum are 4.07 and 3.18.

Thats about the difference I am assuming for daily to monthly on NASA Team, so I'll stick with 4.25 being the place to be, though I'm basing it off SPIE this month rather than meltpond anomalies.

echoughton

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2016, 08:05:05 PM »
Went Higher than most...staying higher than all, I think. 5-5.25.

seaicesailor

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2016, 08:12:32 PM »
Went Higher than most...staying higher than all, I think. 5-5.25.
Are you aware that it is already at 6.3 ? (per Espen's IJIS thread)

philiponfire

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2016, 06:46:25 AM »
Went Higher than most...staying higher than all, I think. 5-5.25.

I would love to understand your thinking. There has not been that much ice for ten years and all of the data suggests a lower number.

Feeltheburn

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2016, 08:01:41 AM »
Went Higher than most...staying higher than all, I think. 5-5.25.

I would love to understand your thinking. There has not been that much ice for ten years and all of the data suggests a lower number.

My vote was 4.5 to 4.75, which is consistent with 2 of the past 3 years, but different than 2012, which I believe was a mostly weather-caused anomaly that is not likely to be repeated this year.
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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2016, 04:06:57 PM »
Nice profile pic "feel the bern"!

I'm staying with 2.75 to 3.00 which I believe is still possible given the state of the ice and possible weather conditions conducive to melt and compaction.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 04:17:29 PM by budmantis »

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2016, 02:46:37 AM »
Nice profile pic "feel the bern"!


Thanks.  I liked the double entendre given this year's election and the topic of this blog!
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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #25 on: August 04, 2016, 07:04:02 AM »
I like it also. Whether it's top or bottom melt or both, the arctic ice is definitely "feeling the burn"!

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #26 on: August 04, 2016, 09:33:38 AM »
I hold on to box 3.75-4. When I chose that one in May, I had already imagined at least some time of heavy extent losses. So although I'm getting excited by the present situation, I see it as possibly delivering the main part of the remaining 2.35 Mkm2 to get to the box.

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #27 on: August 04, 2016, 02:55:06 PM »
It seems that most of us have all decided on the 3.75-4.0 box as where this year is going to end up. I would probably lean a little bit towards the lower end of the box as I see this year ending up somewhere between 3.5 and 4.1 with 70% confidence. Not to say I'm using any sort of model, which I'm not, as it's just my own intuition.

Michael Hauber

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #28 on: August 05, 2016, 06:09:01 AM »
Sticking with a little lower than 07 at 3.75-4
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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #29 on: August 05, 2016, 07:12:34 PM »
At this point the year to year variation of the final extent/area ratio has a bigger effect on the final daily extent than the remaining melting conditions. 

On average my model predicts 3.9 million km2, but a high extent to area ratio like this year usually stays high so I voted 4-4.25

echoughton

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2016, 07:20:29 PM »
Regarding my high prediction, I saw what happened in June and thnk an early Fall could befall the upper reaches....that's my thinking...not much science behind it....what did ya'll jump on a ways back? Oh...someone had a "feeling" LOL 8)

magnamentis

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2016, 10:02:38 PM »
At this point the year to year variation of the final extent/area ratio has a bigger effect on the final daily extent than the remaining melting conditions. 

On average my model predicts 3.9 million km2, but a high extent to area ratio like this year usually stays high so I voted 4-4.25

hehe.... i would say that i tend to follow your reasoning but for the fun of it i throw in that the word "usual" does not apply this year, hence stick to my 3.75-4.00 from day one of the poll.

as i said, for the fun of it :-) while you might well be spot on, let's see ;)

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #32 on: August 05, 2016, 11:52:50 PM »
At this point the year to year variation of the final extent/area ratio has a bigger effect on the final daily extent than the remaining melting conditions. 

On average my model predicts 3.9 million km2, but a high extent to area ratio like this year usually stays high so I voted 4-4.25

hehe.... i would say that i tend to follow your reasoning but for the fun of it i throw in that the word "usual" does not apply this year, hence stick to my 3.75-4.00 from day one of the poll.

as i said, for the fun of it :-) while you might well be spot on, let's see ;)
I don't think the idea of a bit of fun is totally removed from the scientific method myself. The question always comes back to how do we do this or that. Well, you have to examine options and the curiosity of it all is, basically, fun.

Mental stimulation and all that.

I was just responding to Neven and he actually picked numbers closer to yours than mine. I got a fright and picked the year 1995 to start looking for a trend as opposed to what looked like random up and down movement before that date on a more or less basis. I had to pick a year and simply thought: 'that years got an eleven in it and I haven't seen that before so I'll start my analysis  there...[type--type--type]...

I had fun...  ;)

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Sleepy

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #33 on: August 07, 2016, 08:57:24 AM »
4.00-4.25

Juan C. García

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #34 on: August 07, 2016, 09:13:01 PM »
Analysis in which 2016 Arctic sea ice will be below 2007.

At this day (August  6, 2016), the ADS NIPR 2016 figure is 194.5k km2 above the same day of 2007.
2007 have two notorious tendencies of drop later on:
  • Until August 22, the usual drop was above 50k km2, having an Aug 6-22 average daily drop of 58.5k km2.
  • From August 23 to September 17, the drop slows down. The average drop on this period was 25.9k km2.
So, from my point of view, the next 16 days are crucial. If 2016 is able to be under 2007 after these 16 days, and keep falling at the same rate that 2007 afterwards, then the 2016 daily minimum will end up under the 2007 daily minimum.

In order to this to happen, the Aug 6-22 2016 average drop should be equal or greater than 70.62k km2.
Will it happen?

Don´t forget to vote on this poll  ;)

Complete 2007 figures on IJIS topic:
Analysis in which 2016 Arctic sea ice...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #35 on: August 09, 2016, 07:04:00 AM »
The 2016 August 7-8 drop of 78.9k km2 is lower than the 91.7k km2 drop that we had on 2007. Now, 2016 is 207.7k km2 above 2007.

Regarding my previous analysis, I start to think that I was too optimistic, thinking that 2016 is able to reach 2007 on August 22. If the big drops on 2007 ended on August 22, would not be more likely that 2016 reach 2007 afterwards?

So I decide to make a new analysis, were I question myself if 2016 reach 2007, on Aug 22, Aug 31 and Sep 15. The following table has the values of all years, from 2004 to 2015, with the average daily drops on the ranges describe above. On September 15, I use the value of that day, and not the minimum of the year.

Year   Aug 8-22   Aug 8-31   Aug 8-Sep 15
2004     76.3       58.5           36.0
2005     46.4       40.1           29.1
2006     46.6       32.6           24.6
2007     54.2       47.1           37.6
2008     66.8       65.2           47.5
2009     56.0       49.6           34.5
2010     58.3       48.8           39.5
2011     68.2       60.3           37.9
2012     84.4       73.2           53.0
2013     50.0       47.7           34.6
2014     63.3       48.2           37.8
2015     66.4       67.7           43.1

Target to reach 2007:
2016     69.1       56.2           43.1

What I found is:
  • To reach 2007 on August 22, the 2016 average drop should be 69.1k km2. Only 2004 and 2012 had an average daily drop above 69.1k km2.
  • To get even with 2007 on August 31, the 2016 average drop should be 56.2k km2. The years 2004, 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2015 had an average daily drop above 56.2k km2.
  • To reach the minimum of 2007 on September 15 (the 2007 minimum happened on Sep 17, but I target this value on Sep 15), the 2016 average drop should be 43.1k km2. The years 2008, 2012 and 2015 had an average daily drop above 43.1k km2.
  • To reach a value under 4 million km2 by September 15, the 2016 average drop should be 44.9k km2 or above. Only 2008 and 2012 had an average daily drop above 44.9k km2.
So, those are the numbers that I found. Now I believe that we can be lower than 2007 at the end of August.

I am changing my bet on the poll to 4-4.25 km2. I appreciate if you vote.  ;)
The poll ends in two days.

« Last Edit: August 09, 2016, 07:19:52 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #37 on: August 09, 2016, 05:24:08 PM »
Looks like I'm going to stick with 'Between 4.0 and 4.25 million km2'
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Re: ADS (NIPR/IJIS) 2016 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August poll
« Reply #38 on: August 09, 2016, 05:56:43 PM »
I went up one notch to 3.75-4.00 million km2. Though I still expect a value around 3.75 million km2, I changed to the secure side of that bet. Melt might not cause such a big "poof" as I suspected at first.
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