PIOMAS Arctic sea ice minimum daily volume in 2016: August poll

[slow wing]

This poll will run for 7 days. You can change your vote.

PIOMAS volume minima for previous years:
Year --- Min (km3)
1979 16900
1980 16100
1981 12600
1982 13400
1983 15100
1984 14500
1985 14500
1986 15900
1987 15200
1988 14900
1989 14600
1990 13700
1991 13500
1992 14900
1993 12200
1994 13600
1995 11200
1996 13700
1997 13200
1998 11500
1999 10900
2000 11000
2001 12200
2002 10800
2003 10200
2004  9900
2005  9200
2006  9000
2007  6500
2008  7100
2009  6800
2010  4600
2011  4300
2012  3700
2013  5400
2014  6800
2015  5700


Daily volume plots by year...

(Plot and link courtesy of Wipneus.)


See this thread and post for the PIOMAS average thickness graph for July 2016 (also supplied by Wipneus). From the gridded data, Wipneus estimates the volume at day 213 to be 7.448 [1000 km3], fourth place after 2010-2012, but will presumably give the official number soon.

[seaicesailor]

4000 - 4250

[abbottisgone]

 Between 4750 and 5000 km3

[magnamentis]

3750-4000 no new low but clearly second, even when extent and area would end up 3rd or 4th, volume is definitely less than compared to the same area and extent levels in earlier years.

[abbottisgone]

3750-4000 no new low but clearly second, even when extent and area would end up 3rd or 4th, volume is definitely less than compared to the same area and extent levels in earlier years.

Yeh, 2014 still upsets me though.

If we look at the top graph by Wipneus I would actually disregard the top average line in grey... then what do you see? Still I understand his volume anomaly graphs show a disturbing behaviour of the downward kind aswell so...!?!

Is there any explanation for the weirdness of 2014 however?

 ** (It's possible in this poll I'm actually hoping volume numbers won't be catastrophic as I do believe these are where the rubber meets the road!!)

[Neven]

Nice poll, slow wing, thanks for opening it!

I'm going to look at the latest PIOMAS data (for the ASIB update) later tonight, and will vote after that.

[Richard Rathbone]

Crossovers are pretty rare in the time from now till minimum, so I go with a bit above 2010.

[Juan C. García]

Around or above 2011.
Range 4,250-4,500.

[Neven]

Around or above 2011.
Range 4,250-4,500.

I agree.

[abbottisgone]

Around or above 2011.
Range 4,250-4,500.

I agree.

I just checked that history on PIOMAS minima numbers given in the intro and it looks like it's had a very troubled childhood.

I picked the first 11 000 year (1995) as a point of reference in which to hopefully start finding a trend.

I think China is PIOMAS in a mirror.. before circa '95 the signature was sinusoidal. Sure, the last few years may point to a return to some kind of sinusoidal wave but a longer term trend seems to have been established over the rise-of-China-years in my opinion. I am ever so curious now!!

Then I read your comment about the numbers you seem to not have too many issues with predicting...

Ha Ha: no I didn't- I read your comment about the numbers you were predicting first (a reinforcement of Senor Garcia's no less) and got an eery chill... then went over the numbers and looked for the break in the sine wave that you don't seem to think is looking to reestablish anytime soon...

 The question is: exactly what sort of phase is this world seeking to change in to?

[Neven]

PIOMAS August 2016

[Peter Ellis]

I think China is PIOMAS in a mirror.. before circa '95 the signature was sinusoidal. Sure, the last few years may point to a return to some kind of sinusoidal wave but a longer term trend seems to have been established over the rise-of-China-years in my opinion. I am ever so curious now!!

Was this post written by a spambot? It bears no resemblance to grammar, let alone science.

[Juan C. García]

Around or above 2011.
Range 4,250-4,500.

I agree.

Thanks for your support, Neven! 

Then I read your comment about the numbers you seem to not have too many issues with predicting...

Neven generally makes a monthly PIOMAS post in his Arctic Sea Ice Blog:

There is a lot of melting potential in the East Siberian Sea region, extending into the Central Arctic, that could make this year end up close to the 2011 minimum, which is second lowest after the 2012 record lowest minimum.
Neven ASI Blog

[Paddy]

Going for a relatively conservative 4500 to 4750. 2016 is currently in fourth place on volume; not sure how much that's likely to change in the limited time available.

EDIT: Though some would argue the ice is in a more vulnerable position this year, so who knows?

[Thawing Thunder]

I see it between 2010 and 2011 close to 4.500. And I choose for that outcome the lower option of 4.250-4.500 (instead of 4.500-4750).

[slow wing]

I voted between 3750 and 4000 km3.

The relevant comparison for me is with the record-low year 2012. I expect extent and area at the end of this melt season to be comparable to, and probably even a bit lower than, those for 2012. As happened in 2012, the remaining ice will be mostly, or entirely, in the ice sanctuary off the Canadian Arctic coast.

However, the PIOMAS thickness reconstruction maps for July had this year's ice considerably thicker than in 2012 in that region - see attachment below, which is screen-shotted from Wipneus' post linked in the opening post above. Since PIOMAS is a model, I don't think it likely it will flip that sign between July and the end of the melt season.

 So if the minimum area and extent end up comparable to 2012, or even slightly lower, I expect PIOMAS to still predict the volume slightly higher than 2012's 3700 km3. Hence I went one bin up for that.

If the prediction verifies then the minimum Arctic sea ice volume this year would be second lowest, behind only 2012.

[seaicesailor]

I agree with you Slow Wing, although the indices are being pretty surprising to me (I know "the Arctic is full of surprises" meme). But yet to note that, unless dull weather permits all the dispersed ice in the Pacific side to survive,
- There were a lot of broken low concentration areas in AMSR2 not replicated in PIOMAS end of July. An appreciation. I suspect PIOMAS will perform more accurately in September when there are less broken areas.
- The patch in ESS with greater thickness outside of the "sanctuary" is in an area subject to very fast melting right now.
- A lot of ice is now reaching the Atlantic front and melting quickly. Same some export in Beaufort sea, although smaller.
- All the remaining CAA ice is doomed.
- Heat from the continents and the pacific keeps pouring into the Arctic until the 15th at least.
- Clear skies are still enabling a bit of solar radiation heat the open ocean.
- The SSTs at both sides of the ice pack are high, bottom melting should continue for longer than usual.
The only region that is melting really late, the Laptev sea, is low-thickness that won't contribute so much to volume as other regions.

[OSweetMrMath]

My time series model of PIOMAS volume gives a prediction for monthly volume, not daily volume. However, the daily minimum is around 100 cu km below the monthly volume for September. My current prediction for the monthly volume is 5100 cu km. I have gone with the 5000-5250 range, although 4750-5000 is equally reasonable.

Following a slow July, this is quite a bit higher than earlier in the season, when I would have predicted 4250-4500.

[abbottisgone]

I think China is PIOMAS in a mirror.. before circa '95 the signature was sinusoidal. Sure, the last few years may point to a return to some kind of sinusoidal wave but a longer term trend seems to have been established over the rise-of-China-years in my opinion. I am ever so curious now!!

Was this post written by a spambot? It bears no resemblance to grammar, let alone science.

I got a bit too clever with my wording I think and couldn't seem to edit it to make more sense... basically I think the rise of China is reflected in the PIOMAS numbers!

 

[abbottisgone]

Around or above 2011.
Range 4,250-4,500.

I agree.

Thanks for your support, Neven! 

Then I read your comment about the numbers you seem to not have too many issues with predicting...

Neven generally makes a monthly PIOMAS post in his Arctic Sea Ice Blog:

There is a lot of melting potential in the East Siberian Sea region, extending into the Central Arctic, that could make this year end up close to the 2011 minimum, which is second lowest after the 2012 record lowest minimum.
Neven ASI Blog

Cheers! I read all his stuff: sometimes even before commenting!

[slow wing]

The voting closed... 

I've been getting storm jitters from the approaching GAC-2016 and would have bumped down 2 bins.

Thanks to everyone who voted. It will be interesting to see how this season pans out!

[abbottisgone]

The voting closed... 

I've been getting storm jitters from the approaching GAC-2016 and would have bumped down 2 bins.

Thanks to everyone who voted. It will be interesting to see how this season pans out!

So you're predicting a record!!

[OSweetMrMath]

Since I don't expect an new poll this month, I will post an updated prediction here. My current prediction for the monthly volume is 4.67 thousand cu km. Since the daily minimum is typically 100 cu km below the monthly volume, either the 4.25-4.5 bucket or the 4.5-4.75 bucket is reasonable. If I were voting now, I would vote for 4.5-4.75 thousand cu km.

As always, my methodology and updates are posted at http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1363.0.html