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Author Topic: Storing up Problems for the Future?  (Read 2811 times)

silkman

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Storing up Problems for the Future?
« on: March 28, 2013, 11:31:19 AM »
As a "newbie" I hesitate to start a new thread so please forgive me if this either incorrect or self evident.

The forcing mechanism behind AGW is well understood and is a result of a greenhouse gas driven imbalance. Energy radiated by the Earth is less than than it receives from the sun via insolation.

This excess energy (heat) has to go somewhere with the oceans providing the single greatest sink.

New evidence now seems to indicate that the dynamics of heat distribution in the upper layers of the ocean are more complex than previously thought. As a result, sea surface temperatures seem to be increasing slower than models predict. But the globe is still warming (to use that now politically incorrect phrase) but less visibly as more of the excess heat than we thought is now sequestered out of sight and out of mind.

But the fact the increase in surface temperature is being dampened by this excess heat sequestration in deeper water has a direct impact on the baseline energy imbalance as the rate of radiation out to space is directly related to surface temperatures. In short, moving heat from the surface to deeper water will actually make things worse.  The result has to be a ratcheting up of the baseline forcing and the sequestered energy will eventually come back to bite us.

Now put that picture into a political context. Surface temperatures are not rising as fast as forecast by the modellers and the politicians, driven by their focus groups, rapidly lose their interest in addressing a problem that seems to be going away. In the UK, Cameron's "greenest government ever" is fast becoming wedded to "drill baby drill".

It simply terrifies me that the scientific establishment, aided and abetted by the funding agencies seems happy to see policy driven by clearly flawed computations of a chaotic system.

The Arctic Ice has the potential to be the saviour in this situation. If the speculation on this Forum and over at Neven's Blog is correct, the excess heat referred to above will make its first appearance below the Arctic Ice.

If that is indeed the case then maybe it will provide the shock we need to wake our political leaders up to the continuing realities of Climate Change.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Storing up Problems for the Future?
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2013, 11:38:30 AM »
This topic probably belongs in the "AGW in General" Category on the "Policy and Solutions" Board.
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frankendoodle

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Re: Storing up Problems for the Future?
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2013, 09:16:13 PM »
That is why warming has been occurring heteromorphicly between the northern and southern hemispheres (not that anyone seems to agree with me) because the southern hemi is 81% deep water. When the oceans start erupting thermal radiation, it's going to be in large bursts causing regional surface temperatures to increase by several degrees C all at once.