Change "the model predictions ...." to "the spreadsheet projections" and I am content.
Well, are the models anything more than glorified spreadsheet projections? There's no magic involved, as far I'm aware.
Ok, there... D-K in full blown display...
Well speaking as a computer programmer (who should probably be doing his work right now) then, yes, every computer model or simulation is, when it comes down to it, just manipulating numbers according to well-defined rules. A glorified spreadsheet, in other words.
every computer model or simulation is a glorified spreadsheetI completely disagree.
For the projections on the minimum I put out simply take the data as it is and plonk it into a table..
BUT:-
When I did spreadsheets for financial projects, I often put in a sheet called "
parameters".
e.g....
How long will the project take to build?
How much will it cost?
How much will I have to borrow and on what terms?
Will I be able to sell the product it produces (e.g. potable water) at a price that will recover the costs?
Will there be savings elsewhere (manpower, replacing old inefficient facilities)?
The same can apply to environmental energy projects, changing the £ or $ sign to KwH (i.e. from financial equations to energy equations).
Imagine the conversation between me, who has seen too much of this stuff, and the proposer (private, World Bank, a Government officer) desperate to make their pet project happen.
The result ranging from a complete bust to a magnificent proposal.
BIAS, I think it is called. That is the difference between a spreadsheet projection and a model prediction.
But of course, bias never ever creeps into parameter driven climate models, does it.
But of course, bias never ever creeps into parameter driven geo-engineering proposals, does it.
If I take my spreadsheet and start putting in parameters on:-
- general increase in Arctic temperatures,
- effect of increased ice mobility,
- the modest El Nino,
- etc etc
then they reflect opinion as well as fact, and so my spreadsheet projections become model predictions, and I must make that clear when publishing them.
Maybe off-topic but to me it matters a lot. There is a whole thread in the ASIF mainly on whether IPCC projections contain bias (conscious or subconscious or unconscious).