Clearly by spot on I meant that their anomaly forecast for minimum was accurate. And there is ample discussion in this thread about what Anomaly forecast means, what the 50 day lead is, and the comparisons between the two.
Peruse at your pleasure.
So you mean an "explanation" like this one here:
What does anomaly forecast mean?
That if its 100k below the norm for the time of year now, it will be 100k below the norm for the time of year in future.
Which is not very helpful. But of course if nobody understands what Anomaly forecast is, then the lack of understandable explanations become clear. The
Slater website makes no attempt at explanation.
As long as nobody can explain what the Anomaly line means, there is no way to claim that the Slater model has been anywhere near being able to make any real predictions this year.
Just look at the graph. The dark blue line jumps all over the place with very little correlation with the red line, predictive valu nil. The light blue line is practically never comes close to the red line except at the very end. And since nobody knows what the blue line is showing, no conclusions can be drawn from it!
The Slater website has 2016 as "last year", shown below. That year the predictions were actually quite good, notice the close correlation between the red and dark blue lines towards main melting season, while the the light blue line stays well away from both.
