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sidd

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #550 on: September 23, 2020, 10:58:55 PM »
Otterbein and Cassella at politico: Union's split on Biden

"Labor leaders have worked for months to sell their members on Biden, hoping to avoid a repeat of 2016 when Donald Trump outperformed among union members and won the White House. But despite a bevy of national union endorsements for Biden and years of what leaders call attacks on organized labor from the Trump administration, local officials in critical battleground states said support for Trump remains solid."

"“We haven’t moved the needle here,” said Mike Knisley, executive secretary-treasurer with the Ohio State Building and Construction Trades Council, who estimated that about half of his members voted for Trump in 2016 and will do so again. “Even if given all the information that’s been put out there, all the facts — just pick an issue that the president has had his hands in — it doesn’t make a difference.” "

"Those voters, historically a bedrock of Democratic support, shifted away from the party in 2016, according to exit polls. Hillary Clinton won union voters by less than half as much as former President Barack Obama had four years earlier — and that swing alone may have been enough to account for her losses in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan"

"there is cause for hope for Biden: While many Trump voters remain firm in their support, they said, Biden is winning over more of their members than Clinton did."

"union leaders said they fear there’s nothing they can say to the Trump supporters among their ranks to sway their opinion between now and November. "

" within more liberal unions, especially those with large numbers of Black and Latino members, leaders report major excitement for Biden ... Public-sector unions in major cities likewise tend to be a font of Democratic support."

"Mary Kay Henry, president of the Service Employees International Union, said 70 percent of her rank-and-file members backed Clinton. This year, she said, at least 80 percent are supporting Biden."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/22/donald-trump-union-support-snub-joe-biden-418329

I watched the Democrats lose the unions in 2016 across the Midwest. I have a feeling they won't get too many union votes back this time. But what do I know ...

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #551 on: September 24, 2020, 03:48:40 AM »
Trump will not commit to a peaceful transition of power and the linked article provides background on this matter:

Title: "The Election That Could Break America"

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

Extract: "Trump’s state and national legal teams are already laying the groundwork for postelection maneuvers that would circumvent the results of the vote count in battleground states. Ambiguities in the Constitution and logic bombs in the Electoral Count Act make it possible to extend the dispute all the way to Inauguration Day, which would bring the nation to a precipice. The Twentieth Amendment is crystal clear that the president’s term in office “shall end” at noon on January 20, but two men could show up to be sworn in. One of them would arrive with all the tools and power of the presidency already in hand.
...
“Our Constitution does not secure the peaceful transition of power, but rather presupposes it,” the legal scholar Lawrence Douglas wrote in a recent book titled simply Will He Go?
...
Let us not hedge about one thing. Donald Trump may win or lose, but he will never concede. Not under any circumstance."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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vox_mundi

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #552 on: September 24, 2020, 07:00:19 AM »
Trump Won't Commit to Peaceful Power Transfer at Surreal Press Briefing
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/23/donald-trump-press-conference-us-elections-breonna-taylor

... Wednesday was one of those days when to have a seat in the White House briefing room felts like stepping through the looking-glass into Blunderland, where the mad hatter has an authoritarian streak a mile wide.

Trump careered from touting miracle vaccines to building supreme court suspense, from insulting a female member of the British royal family to abruptly departing for a mysterious “emergency” phone call. But first, there was the small matter of kneecapping American democracy.

Perhaps it was not chance that the president, ever eager to generate media outrage, gave the first question to Brian Karem, who describes himself on Twitter as a “Loud Mouth” senior White House reporter at Playboy. “Will you commit to make sure there’s a peaceful transferral of power after the election?” Karem asked.

All of his 43 predecessors would have said yes, presumably. But Trump replied: “We’re going to have to see what happens, you know that. I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots, and the ballots are a disaster.”

Karem shot back: “I understand that, but people are rioting. Do you commit to make sure that there’s a peaceful transferral of power?”

Still Trump refused to commit. “Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very peaceful — there won’t be a transfer, frankly. There will be a continuation. The ballots are out of control. You know it. And you know who knows it better than anybody else? The Democrats know it better than anybody else.”

Later, Karem remarked on Twitter:

Quote
“This is the most frightening answer I have ever received to any question I have ever asked. I’ve interviewed convicted killers with more empathy. @realDonaldTrump is advocating Civil War.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrianKarem/status/1308902603145850882

And Julian Castro, who served in Barack Obama’s cabinet, tweeted:

Quote
“In one day, Trump refused a peaceful transition of power and urged the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice to hand him an election if the results are contested. This is Fascism, alive and well in the Republican Party.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianCastro/status/1308918756438138881



------------------------------------

Steve Bannon Urges Republicans To Sign Up As Election Officials And Contest Every Mail-In Ballot
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/09/23/steve-bannon-urges-republicans-to-sign-up-as-election-officials-and-contest-every-mail-in-ballot/amp/

Former White House chief strategist and accused fraudster Steve Bannon told attendees during a Wednesday night livestream held by the Metropolitan Republican Club that they should sign up as election officials to contest every mail-in ballot in November, as he alleged a think tank called the Transition Integrity Project will “steal” the election from President Trump.

Bannon, who faces federal charges of conspiring to commit fraud and money laundering in connection with a campaign to raise private money to build Trump’s long-promised border wall, said that 60 million to 80 million voters will cast mail-in ballots in the presidential election, which means “we need to sit there and contest every ballot,” presumably referring to Republicans

According to Bannon, the bipartisan Transition Integrity Project—which games out scenarios in which the election is contested—laid out the “lawfare” they will pursue to ensure Democratic nominee Joe Biden defeats Trump.

Both Bannon and Raheem Kassam, a former Breitbart News editor from London, England, who introduced Bannon on the livestream, claimed that coverage of the Transition Integrity Project by The Atlantic and the New York Times legitimized the think tank, whose efforts culminated in an August report stating Trump is “likely to contest [the election] through by both legal and extra-legal means.”

Bannon also claimed the “mainstream media and Silicon Valley oligarchs” will be “ripping down social media” in order to “make it very difficult for conservatives to communicate” after the election, allegedly so that Biden won’t have to concede while mail-in ballots are being counted.

“You’re going to have your Twitter accounts taken down or blocked for sharing false information,” Bannon said, likely referring to the social media company’s new policy of labeling misleading tweets as misinformation, or locking accounts until users delete tweets in violation.

Bannon stressed the importance of the Metropolitan Republican Club in the party’s election efforts, telling the 130-odd attendees who tuned in, “You guys are thought leaders, you’ve got to go to the barricades, weaponize yourself and make yourself useful in battleground states.”

“The mainstream media and oligarchs in Silicon Valley intend to have Facebook, YouTube and Google not declare Trump the winner,” Bannon said, and will instead “have Election Week and Election Month to push through to December, and push to [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi’s House of Representatives in January, when new Congress meets. It’s going to be the equivalent of a civil war when they refuse to declare Trump the president [and say] under no circumstances can Biden concede.”

--------------------------------

Trump tells reporters he wants a replacement for RBG quickly as he believes 2020 election will end up going to SCOTUS: “Yes, I think it’s very important. I think this will end up in the Supreme Court and I think it’s very important that we have nine justices."

https://mobile.twitter.com/Acosta/status/1308857897074520066

« Last Edit: September 24, 2020, 07:31:56 AM by vox_mundi »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #553 on: September 26, 2020, 01:54:02 PM »
How did we get here—and how will it end?
https://americanmind.org/essays/revolution-2020/
Quote
Victory for the Democratic Party is a recipe for violent strife. The lack of moral-political authority at the head of the ruling class has been arguably the most important and least remarked fact of public life in 21st-century America. Most visibly since 2008, its leaders have led primarily by pulling rank—denigrating ordinary Americans and calling attention to their own elevated stations in government and society—and by courting the coalition of groups driven by intersectional hate. After an electoral victory, these leaders—the elected officials, the deep state bureaucrats, the corporate and finance chiefs, the educrats, etc.—will be able to wield power to the extent of the losers’ complaisance and their ability to satisfy the intersectionals’ ambitions and hates. Moderating and meshing these contrasting requirements would be hard even for exceptionally astute and potent persons. But neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris has talent, personal following, or moral authority. Hence, the winners would be hostages to the war that their own activists would wage against the rest of America, and to the deplorables’ resistance. For most ruling class notables, enjoying and parceling out victory’s prerogatives is the revolution’s point. They would prefer to suppress the deplorables while minimizing disruption of the economy and avoiding violence. For these chiefs, rubbing the deplorables’ faces in excrement is mostly an instrument of conflict. But for the intersectionals, it is the revolution’s very objective, its driving logic. For them, vengeance is electoral victory’s foremost prerogative. Determined as the chiefs may be that the intersectional tail must not wag the revolutionary dog, the fact is that each and every part of the intersectional coalition sees itself as the dog. For their part the deplorables would not accept the legitimacy of the Left’s victory in 2020 any more than the Left accepted the Right’s victory in 2016. Why should they? Lacking any hope of federal protection, they would retrench behind such state, local, and private means of resistance as they may have, while they sought effective national leadership. Sensing that disobedience to the point of violence had become the only effective means of defense, they would respond to challenges with force. The revolution’s logic would play out in a series of confrontations, and the revolution’s next stage would depend on these confrontations’ outcomes.

Quote
Donald Trump’s reelection would reduce the intersectionals’ confidence a bit and give the Right side of American life a bit more leeway as it chooses new leadership. In this slightly calmer atmosphere, the beginning of the 2024 election cycle would open a host of possibilities. But it would not end our revolution any more than the ruling class’s victory would. The revolution’s essentials would remain and its logic would continue to unfold. The ruling class, having failed peaceably and hence firmly to establish oligarchy, remains pressed by the deplorables on one side and its chosen intersectional instruments on the other. It dares not try dismounting the tiger it rides.
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wili

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #554 on: September 26, 2020, 04:17:11 PM »
"Victory for the Democratic Party is a recipe for violent strife"

Ummmm, 'violent strife' is happening right now, under TRUMP!

This upside-down thinking is part of what makes Repubs look more and more ridiculous to many here in the US and abroad.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #555 on: September 26, 2020, 05:42:40 PM »
I think victory for Biden is a recipe for (more) violent strife.
And I think victory for Trump is a recipe for (more) violent strife.
I hope I am wrong.
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bbr2315

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #556 on: September 26, 2020, 07:38:42 PM »
It is so funny how Democrats are so set on convincing everyone why their old white rapist is the best old white rapist. Like how stupid do you have to be to mimic the other candidate and then say that yours is better, after simultaneously alienating every single young person in this country through both the Bernie fiasco and the COVID lockdowns?

I am beginning to think the likelihood of a 350+ Trump EV blowout is increasing. I think there is a tremendous amount of youth apathy that is missing from polling models and I think the main forcing behind the vote this year will be resentment over the lockdowns which is also not being sampled accurately. These are potent motivators for both turnout towards Trump AND apathy towards Biden and could flip states like NJ, CT, and NY.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #557 on: September 26, 2020, 08:52:07 PM »
The debates could decide. If Biden looks senile, then that could blow it.
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Paddy

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #558 on: September 26, 2020, 09:18:42 PM »
The debates could decide. If Biden looks senile, then that could blow it.

It's probably going to be a contest of who looks least senile out of the pair of them.

oren

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #559 on: September 27, 2020, 09:52:57 AM »
Biden is not good, but Trump is terrible.
He can still easily win, despite all the nice charts to the contrary, partly thanks to the rotten and jerry-rigged US election system and partly because of the easily swayed public. And if not, he might stay anyway. I am not optimistic.

Ktb

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #560 on: September 27, 2020, 12:17:16 PM »
Oren’s take is correct. Biden is not good. Trump is clearly worse.

Between gerrymandering, voter suppression, and intimidation, it is very possible for trump to win again. He could also lose and have a victory assigned by the Supreme Court.
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #561 on: September 27, 2020, 01:02:13 PM »
Here is the decision by the Pennsylvania Court on mail in ballots:
http://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinions/Supreme/out/J-96-2020mo%20-%20104548450113066639.pdf?cb=1
Quote
Based on our disposition of all of the claims set forth above, we grant relief on the
claims set forth in Counts I, II, and V of the Democratic Party’s petition for review as
follows and hold that: (Count I) the Election Code permits county boards of election to
collect hand-delivered mail-in ballots at locations other than their office addresses
including drop-boxes as indicated herein, see supra. at 20 n. 15; (Count II) a three-day
extension of the absentee and mail-in ballot received-by deadline is adopted such that
ballots mailed by voters via the United States Postal Service and postmarked by 8:00
p.m. on Election Day , November 3, 2020, shall be counted if they are otherwise valid and
received by the county boards of election on or before 5:00 p.m. on November 6, 2020;
ballots received within this period that lack a postmark or other proof of mailing, or for
which the postmark or other proof of mailing is illegible, will be presumed to have been
mailed by Election Day unless a preponderance of the evidence demonstrates that it was
mailed after Election Day;
How do we prevent Democrats just delivering enough votes lacking a postmark or other proof of mailing to give a Biden win, or Republicans enough such votes for a Trump win, after election day? What would be a "preponderance of the evidence" that they were mailed after election day?
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oren

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #562 on: September 27, 2020, 01:04:37 PM »
How many items delivered by USPS lack a postmark? This is blown out of proportion.

bbr2315

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #563 on: September 27, 2020, 01:05:52 PM »
Here is the decision by the Pennsylvania Court on mail in ballots:
http://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinions/Supreme/out/J-96-2020mo%20-%20104548450113066639.pdf?cb=1
Quote
Based on our disposition of all of the claims set forth above, we grant relief on the
claims set forth in Counts I, II, and V of the Democratic Party’s petition for review as
follows and hold that: (Count I) the Election Code permits county boards of election to
collect hand-delivered mail-in ballots at locations other than their office addresses
including drop-boxes as indicated herein, see supra. at 20 n. 15; (Count II) a three-day
extension of the absentee and mail-in ballot received-by deadline is adopted such that
ballots mailed by voters via the United States Postal Service and postmarked by 8:00
p.m. on Election Day , November 3, 2020, shall be counted if they are otherwise valid and
received by the county boards of election on or before 5:00 p.m. on November 6, 2020;
ballots received within this period that lack a postmark or other proof of mailing, or for
which the postmark or other proof of mailing is illegible, will be presumed to have been
mailed by Election Day unless a preponderance of the evidence demonstrates that it was
mailed after Election Day;
How do we prevent Democrats just delivering enough votes lacking a postmark or other proof of mailing to give a Biden win, or Republicans enough such votes for a Trump win, after election day? What would be a "preponderance of the evidence" that they were mailed after election day?

The "Supreme PA Court decision" is a podunk ruling that will not stand up to jurisdiction or judicial review, IMO.

Democrats will not be allowed to steal the election, I wonder if jurisdictions like King County, Washington and the Five Boroughs will have to be discounted entirely due to the rampant ballot fraud that has likely already been ongoing for years. In NYC, our elections are completely non-transparent and the Democrats took a month to count the ballots for their own primary.

The US is ultimately ruled through the Courts and with the Supreme Court already tilted 5-4 R prior to RBG's passing, the judicially activist tactics currently being employed by Democrats have the potential to backfire in an enormous way, and on a national scale. In deciding on rulings like Podunk Pennsylvania cases they can simultaneously set precedent on OTHER issues if they so please.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #564 on: September 27, 2020, 03:09:33 PM »
How many items delivered by USPS lack a postmark? This is blown out of proportion.
If on Wednesday Biden is narrowly winning (say) what is to stop the GOP from getting up some votes for Trump without postmarks (because it is too late for that) to push him over the top? Or vice versa? Would such shenanigans actually be attempted in our ------ political system?
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The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #565 on: September 27, 2020, 09:44:31 PM »
Sounds like Florida in 2000, when they decided to count all absentee ballots, including late arriving, unsigned, of non-postmarked.  We know how well that worked.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #566 on: Today at 12:28:13 AM »
Bbr is trying to accuse dems of election rigging and voter fraud? That’s rich.
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #567 on: Today at 12:47:17 AM »
Feds, In Unusual Statement, Announce They're Investigating A Few Discarded Ballots
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/916633925/feds-in-unusual-statement-announce-theyre-investigating-discarded-pa-ballots?utm_source=knewz
Quote
The FBI and the U.S. attorney for the Middle District of Pennsylvania said Thursday that they are investigating "potential issues" with nine military ballots in one county. They believe the ballots were opened improperly, though they have not filed any charges or taken official action.

I once was unable to vote in an election, and the candidate I would have voted for lost the coin toss. A few votes can matter. Also:

US Postal Service investigating trays of mail, absentee ballots found in Wisconsin ditch
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mail-absentee-ballots-found-wisconsin-ditch
Quote
The U.S. Postal Service is investigating how three trays of mail, including absentee ballots, ended up in a ditch line in Wisconsin, a swing state whose voters could prove crucial in the upcoming elections.
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The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #568 on: Today at 12:51:51 AM »
Bbr is trying to accuse dems of election rigging and voter fraud? That’s rich.

Typical it has been the GOP accusing them of voter fraud, and the Dems denying that it exists.

vox_mundi

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #569 on: Today at 02:21:13 AM »
New York Times Publishes Donald Trump's Tax Returns In Election Bombshell
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/27/new-york-times-publishes-donald-trumps-tax-returns-election

Donald Trump, a self-proclaimed billionaire, paid only $750 in federal income taxes in the year he was elected US president, according to a stunning New York Times investigation that could shake up the presidential election.

“Trump taxes show chronic losses and years of tax avoidance,” was the banner headline on the paper’s website on Sunday. The president’s tax returns have long been the holy grail of American political reporting.

The president “paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency”, the paper reported, adding that “in his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

“He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years – largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.”

In all, the paper said, Trump paid no federal income taxes in 11 of 18 years its reporters examined. Many of his businesses, including his golf courses, report significant financial losses – which have helped him to lower his taxes.

The Times also said the documents it had obtained “comprise information that Mr Trump has disclosed to the IRS, not the findings of an independent financial examination.

Trumps reply: ... “Totally fake news, no. Actually I paid tax. And you’ll see that as soon as my tax returns – it’s under audit, they’ve been under audit for a long time. The [Internal Revenue Service] does not treat me well … they treat me very badly. You have people in the IRS – they treat me very badly.”

Pressed on why a billionaire only paid a few hundred dollars in the year he won the presidency, Trump insisted: “First of all I paid a lot, and I paid a lot of state income taxes too. The New York state charges a lot and I paid a lot of money in state. It’ll all be revealed. It’s going to come out but after the audit.”

The revelations threaten to damage Trump’s repeated claim to be a successful businessman and therefore a capable steward of the US economy.

The Times promised more stories in the coming weeks, adding: “The tax returns that Mr Trump has long fought to keep private tell a story fundamentally different from the one he has sold to the American public.” ...

--------------------------------------

Six Key Findings from the New York Times' Trump Taxes Bombshell
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/27/new-york-times-trump-tax-returns-key-findings

... The Times was brutal in its assessment of Trump’s businesses, about which he often boasts and on the back of which he sought to promote a carefully curated image as a master businessman. “Trump’s core enterprises – from his constellation of golf courses to his conservative-magnet hotel in Washington – report losing millions, if not tens of millions, of dollars year after year,” the newspaper said.

It detailed how since 2000, Trump has reported losing more than $315m at his golf courses, with much of that coming from Trump National Doral in Florida. His Washington hotel, which opened in 2016 and has been the subject of much speculation regarding federal ethics laws, has lost more than $55m. ...



« Last Edit: Today at 02:45:02 AM by vox_mundi »
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oren

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #570 on: Today at 03:27:14 AM »
Quote
The revelations threaten to damage Trump’s repeated claim to be a successful businessman and therefore a capable steward of the US economy.
So what, Trump is a liar again? I doubt his supporters don't know that already, and I doubt it matters. I hope to be proven wrong though.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #571 on: Today at 05:55:26 AM »
Perhaps. But it will depend how how effectively dems and others can shape the narrative around it.

Trump's 'brand' is that he's a 'winner' not a 'loser.' But he told the IRS that he lost hundreds of millions on his various business enterpises/schemes, iirc from the coverage earlier this evening.

He is on record claiming that nearly all his companies lost absurd amounts of money for years and years

Another of his claims is that, because he's supposedly a billionaire, he can't possibly be beholden to anyone for money. But it turns out that he has to pony up nearly half a billion with b dollars within the next four years because of debts. That means he would be beholden to anyone with a big bank account willing and able to take advantage of his situation.

Oddly, it's possible that the $70,000 for hair styling may be the biggest hit to his image among the macho man crowd.

https://apnews.com/article/ruth-bader-ginsburg-courts-donald-trump-7e1d23d1e381ae3e0be6cb293338c05e

But yeah, as has been pointed out, his following is more and more cult-like...I don't mind if cult followers choose to follow their leader over a cliff or into a koolaid quenched oblivion...but I just don't want them to take me and the rest of my country with them
« Last Edit: Today at 07:29:58 AM by wili »
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #572 on: Today at 07:33:28 AM »
Voter fraud does occur. Via mail-in or absentee ballot it is exceedingly rare.

I can find multiple sources citing voter fraud by polling station officials by both parties in just a few quick google searches.

And election rigging (thanks for ignoring that aspect of my comment) has been done successfully by the Republicans. 2000 springs to mind. The electoral college of course decides against the will of the people (2000 and 2016). And Trump has openly admitted that this election may be decided by the Supreme Court.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #573 on: Today at 12:26:50 PM »
Great, Ktb.
Now I have to worry about polling places as well as the Post Office.
Thanks a lot.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #574 on: Today at 04:27:46 PM »
I'm bypassing the post office and the polling place.  I'll take my ballot (in the signed envelope and withing the "privacy sleeve") to the Supervisor of Elections office this afternoon.  (The ballot arrived in Saturday's mail.)  Because I update my registration regularly, I 'know' my signature.  An on-line portal will tell me when my ballot has been counted (put through an optical scanner), and if my signature is questioned, they'll contact me, and I'll be able to substantiate it in person.

... and there will be shenanigans.  (Apologies to the Irish, or English, or Spanish, or Germans.)
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