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Poll

Who are you going to vote for?

Clinton
31 (70.5%)
Johnson
2 (4.5%)
Stein
6 (13.6%)
Trump
1 (2.3%)
Not going to vote / going to spoil ballot
4 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 43

Voting closed: November 26, 2016, 07:11:49 AM

Author Topic: The Trump Presidency  (Read 606663 times)

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #150 on: October 13, 2016, 09:41:08 PM »

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #151 on: October 13, 2016, 09:44:49 PM »
Quote
Buddy, thanks for laying it out like that. But I'd be more comforted if I thought I could put more confidence in the polls. Brexit was famously missed by the polls, and some are saying that people didn't really suddenly change who they really are going to vote for after the recent revelations. They were just now embarrassed to admit that to strangers taking a poll.

Who knows?

Well...anything is possible.  All a poll does.....is give you one polls "snapshot" at a point in time.  Now, Nate Silver does a much better job....because he looks at ALL THE POLLS.....and he adjusts them for (1) sample size (2) the polls history of accuracy and bias (3) makes an adjustment for economic conditions, etc.  So it is not just "a poll".

So....come the morning of November 8th.....I will have a "degree" of comfort, depending on what the "gap" is on that day....and what Nate says the "likely" outcome will be.  If the popular vote gap is 7% or better (it's now about 6.7%).....I'll feel pretty good.  If it is over 10%.....I'll feel GREAT.  If it's less than 4%.....I probably won't get a lot of sleep.

THAT....is the best we can do on ANY FUTURE EVENT.

Clinton has a big advantage on her "ground game".....people on the ground that will be getting people out to vote on November 8th.  So don't underestimate that.

I also don't underestimate Donald Trump's ego between now and then.  It has been the biggest thing working against him the whole time.....and continues to work against him.

I will sleep a LOT better on the evening of November 8th if Clinton wins.  Then ALL OF US can get back to the important job of moving POLICY ON GLOBAL WARMING FORWARD.  But the election is an INCREDIBLY important part of that....   
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

ChasingIce

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #152 on: October 13, 2016, 10:10:15 PM »
This is from a Construction Trade Magazine's online edition, taken today. There is a REAL possibility of another Brexit-type outcome where the Polls are misaligned with the actual voting Public.


budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #153 on: October 13, 2016, 10:20:55 PM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37639738

This is in regards to some Trump supporters tweeting about repealing the 19th amendment. If women were not allowed to vote, Trump would win the election easily. The article contains a number of tweets, some from female supporters of Trump saying they would be willing to give up their right to vote, if it meant Trump would win.

Perhaps these women would have no trouble with Trump's right to "grope"?

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #154 on: October 13, 2016, 10:22:08 PM »
Quote
This is from a Construction Trade Magazine's online edition, taken today. There is a REAL possibility of another Brexit-type outcome where the Polls are misaligned with the actual voting Public.

I would EXPECT that outcome from a Construction Trade magazine.  That doesn't surprise me in the LEAST.

Some people might even say that is "cherry picking".......  Where have I heard that term before?



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Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #155 on: October 13, 2016, 10:40:04 PM »
Here's a good article this afternoon from Nate Silver's site:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-teflon/

And here again....is the "create your own electoral map" from Realclearpolitics.com  You can change around states depending on the latest polls....or the latest Nate Silver info.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html
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ChasingIce

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #156 on: October 13, 2016, 11:01:12 PM »

I would EXPECT that outcome from a Construction Trade magazine.  That doesn't surprise me in the LEAST.

I initially considered that, however, as I peek around, I'm seeing the same thing all over the place. 

here's another one... random google for online polls not associated with a news outlet:






AbruptSLR

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #157 on: October 14, 2016, 12:24:51 AM »
Attached is the latest presidential projection (made before the latest scandals about Trump) from fivethirtyeight issued Oct 13 2016:

Edit: I note that if Evan McMullin wins in Utah and the electoral college is deadlocked
(not likely but possible), then McMullin could be elected POTUS by the Republican House (see the linked article below by fivethirtyeight).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/
« Last Edit: October 14, 2016, 12:35:20 AM by AbruptSLR »
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ritter

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #158 on: October 14, 2016, 12:35:57 AM »
It's crazy. Clinton should be crushing Trump. I'm no Clinton fan, but her experience and qualifications so far outweigh Trump's it's simply no comparison. You want an actual pilot flying your airliner, not a limo passenger.

It's very telling just how angry the American public is with the status quo. They'll do just about anything to change it, including hanging us all.   :o

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #159 on: October 14, 2016, 12:57:53 AM »
Quote
It's crazy. Clinton should be crushing Trump.

It's the difference between a bad candidate (Clinton) and a HORRIBLE candidate (Trump).

Plus....the big thing this time around....is the Supreme Court.  THAT is why this is going to get REALLY ugly the next 3 weeks.

Whoever wins the election....will likely appoint AT LEAST 3 justices (if it is a 4 year term).....and more than that if it is an 8 year term.

So this is a very divided race along party lines........no matter WHO the candidate is.  And of course...like usual....the "moderate middle" will be the section of the electorate that chooses the president.

Trump is just a horrible human being.  Easily the worst candidate I have seen in my lifetime of voting.  Nobody even close to that horrible.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #160 on: October 14, 2016, 01:04:46 AM »
Quote
I initially considered that, however, as I peek around, I'm seeing the same thing all over the place. 

here's another one... random google for online polls not associated with a news outlet:

I'll stick with science.  Of course....if you want to bet me who is closer on the morning of November 8th...I would be interested.  Average the 2 polls you just pulled up...plus any other 3 ONLINE POLLS you want on the morning of November 8th.......vs Nate Silver's prediction for the popular vote breakdown. ;)
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

ChasingIce

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #161 on: October 14, 2016, 01:40:21 AM »
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #162 on: October 14, 2016, 03:05:01 AM »
It's crazy. Clinton should be crushing Trump. I'm no Clinton fan, but her experience and qualifications so far outweigh Trump's it's simply no comparison. You want an actual pilot flying your airliner, not a limo passenger.

It's very telling just how angry the American public is with the status quo. They'll do just about anything to change it, including hanging us all.   :o

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/inside-donald-trump%E2%80%99s-total-meltdown/ar-AAiTHGK?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

From Time magazine; "Inside Donald Trump's total meltdown". The article says more about the supporters of Donald Trump than about Donald Trump himself.

In my opinion if there is a "soul" left to the Republican party, it should completely repudiate their nominee. It's too late to remove Trump from the ballot, but the party should once and for all denounce their nominee in the strongest terms possible. I also believe that if Mike Pence is the principled man he purports to be, he should remove his name from the ticket. Pence staying on the ticket at this point compromises everything he's supposed to stand for.


Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #163 on: October 14, 2016, 12:21:35 PM »
Quote
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.

I don't put ANY confidence in any ONE poll.  Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is NOT a poll.  It is a COMPILATION of MANY of the polls (all the polls that meet "scientific criteria").

In addition....he makes adjustments to his numbers for the current state of some economic numbers.

And finally....he has a GREAT HISTORY OF BEING RIGHT.  So yes....I have confidence in his SYSTEM AND PROCESS......and HE'S BEEN RIGHT.

Now having said that....if you look at his "numbers".....they are stated in PROBABILITY.  Right now....Clinton has an 87% chance of winning.  So even he is very aware that there is a certain unpredictability.

But if Clinton has a 7% gap in popular vote....I will sleep fine.  Obviously the larger that is...the better I will sleep.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #164 on: October 14, 2016, 01:00:51 PM »
Quote
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.


But if Clinton has a 7% gap in popular vote....I will sleep fine.  Obviously the larger that is...the better I will sleep.

I'm hoping Buddy that Clinton's margin of victory (if she wins), will be significant enough to remove all doubt of a "rigged" election. Trump has to know he is unlikely to win, so he is employing tactics to delegitimize a Clinton victory. I would feel better with a 10% margin of victory and I'm sure most everyone on this forum feels the same. I would hate to see another close election like 2000 this year. That would be a nightmare!

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #165 on: October 14, 2016, 01:33:34 PM »
One of the interesting....and scary....things about this election for me is this:

That so many people could vote for someone (Trump) who doesn't have a plan for the country (he continues to "make it up as he goes")....and someone who is SO NEGATIVE about the current state of things in the country.

One of the things that I have viewed in my life....is that if you repeat something enough times...people believe it is true, even if facts say otherwise.

For instance...Trump thinks the economy is a mess.  And he states it OVER AND OVER.  And his friends at FOX News....as long as Obama has been in office....have stated the SAME THING.

Well....as a financial guy, and a "numbers guy" I can tell you it ISN'T a mess...and I can point to numbers and FACTS.  I won't tell you it's GREAT...but it's middling....and the employment numbers are REALLY GOOD.  Right now...the Gross Domestic Product numbers (GDP) are "soft" AROUND THE WORLD.  And in the US....we're going through about a 6 month period of time of "softness".  So things aren't GREAT...but they aren't ANWHERE NEAR what Trump is talking about.

The unemployment rate in the US right now is 5%.  That used to be considered "full employment".  We just had the 84th STRAIGHT WEEK of jobless claims less than 300,000.  That is a record going back to 1970.

Furthermore.....that record of less than 300,000 jobless claims is even better than it looks.  Because the number of "covered jobs" in the early 1970's was only 66 million.  Now....the number of covered jobs is 136 million.  So the RATE of jobless claims....to the number of "covered jobs"....is LESS THAN HALF OF WHAT IT WAS IN 1970.

300,000/66 million = .45%  (just under 5/10th's of 1 percent)
300,000/137 million =  .22 %  (less than 2/10ths of 1 percent)

This last week the jobless claims was about 246,000.  On a job base of 137 million.....that is FAR BETTER than when the job base was 66 million.

Just as FOX News has....and continues to say..... that global warming is a hoax (they repeat it OVER and OVER and OVER:  Hannity, O'Reilly, Stuart Varney, Eric Bolling, etc..etc..etc..)....they also continue to say how bad the economy is.

Click on the link below...and watch the SHORT video clip of FOX describing the monthly Employment report (NOT the weekly jobless claims...but the monthly Jobs report).  In that report....the unemployment rate DROPPED to 5.0%....and 271,000 NET JOBS were added to the employment base....the largest number added for the year (note...these are NOT jobless claims....this is the number of "net jobs added" for the month).

FOX presents it as though it is "disappointing news"....when in fact it was GREAT NEWS.  That is the type of lies that FOX continues to perpetuate about the economy now.....as well as global warming....and anything related to the Obama administration.  But FOX does this ALL THE TIME.  Great news is bad news.....and bad news is horrible news.  If a Republican were President....I can assure you, the delivery would be MUCH DIFFERENT.

https://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/06/watch-fox-news-stumble-through-outstanding-octo/206671

And I believe it answers TO A LARGE PART.....why people are supporting Trump...and they are so loyal to him.  Because they are being spoon fed a continual stream of lies by FOX News.  Sean Hannity may as well be his press advisor....and almost everyone else on FOX is "all in" for Trump. 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #166 on: October 14, 2016, 01:52:49 PM »
I've watched Bill O'Reilly interview people in the past. He's aggressive and interrupts frequently. When he interviews Trump, there is an air of deference, as if O'Reilly actually fears him. Trump on the other hand when being interviewed by O'Reilly, Hannity or others has this predatory look about him which some interviewers must find intimidating.

People like to have their core beliefs validated, not questioned. It takes a lot of courage to consider both sides of a disagreement equally. It's hard work to be a critical thinker, while staying in your favorite echo chamber is relatively easy.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #167 on: October 14, 2016, 02:01:40 PM »
Quote
I'm hoping Buddy that Clinton's margin of victory (if she wins), will be significant enough to remove all doubt of a "rigged" election. Trump has to know he is unlikely to win, so he is employing tactics to delegitimize a Clinton victory. I would feel better with a 10% margin of victory and I'm sure most everyone on this forum feels the same. I would hate to see another close election like 2000 this year. That would be a nightmare!

Agree totally.  Keep in mind....that the Supreme Court is divided 4 to 4 right now.  IF....it went to the Supreme Court...AND..the Supreme Court voted 4 to 4.....then THE LOWER COURTS DECISION (whatever that was) would STAND.  So the Supreme Court MAY NOT play a part in the current election SHOULD any issue go to them as it did in the election of 2000.

Trump...if he loses....will NOT be a good loser.  Whether he loses by 3% or 10%.....he's going to blame it on a rigged system, "the elite", the party establishment, etc.  He isn't going to come out and say:  "You know...I really shouldn't have called everyone crooked and schmucks during the primary".  Trump is ALL ABOUT TRUMP.....ALL THE TIME.  And he is, quite literally, a sociopathLITERALLY.  His campaign CEO is the head of Breitbart News....which is nothing more than a conspiracy site and an "alt right unhinged" smear blog.  So anything is possible.

The next 3.5 weeks will be interesting....and this election is certainly one for the record books.  Again....as I posted in my other reply this morning.....the more DANGEROUS thing about this election has been the EFFECT OF FOX NEWS.

It shows that....just like the people of Iran or any other country.....if you have a person who listens to CRAP PROPAGANDA EVERY DAY....many of them ARE GOING TO BELIEVE IT.  THAT....is why the press is SO IMPORTANT IN A DEMOCRACY.  And the press did SUCH A HORRIBLE JOB DURING THE PRIMARIES.

And that is why FOX.....OR ANY OTHER NEWS OUTLET THAT LIES.....needs to be called out EARLY....AND OFTEN.  And do it by showing FACTS.
 



FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #168 on: October 14, 2016, 02:15:07 PM »
The 5 states I am keeping my eyes on this last 3.5 weeks:

1)  New Hampshire (Senator Ayotte has taken back her endorsement of Trump)
2)  Pennsylvania (should be safe....but watching it...I expect it to tighten but stay Clinton)
3)  North Carolina (Obama's will be there often in the next few weeks...and likely to deliver)
4)  Florida (Clinton has 3% lead...but it's close)
5)  Nevada (this is the "Western firewall".  Trump needs it...Clinton doesn't likely need it, but if she lost New Hampshire for some reason and Trump was able to take Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Iowa.....Nevada would be her fallback state to save her.

If New Hampshire and North Carolina were to go Clinton....it's "lights out" for Trump....and I sleep well.

Better get your hip waders on.....because there is going to be a lot of mud slung over the next few weeks.

 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #169 on: October 14, 2016, 03:31:23 PM »
Quote
I've watched Bill O'Reilly interview people in the past. He's aggressive and interrupts frequently. When he interviews Trump, there is an air of deference, as if O'Reilly actually fears him. Trump on the other hand when being interviewed by O'Reilly, Hannity or others has this predatory look about him which some interviewers must find intimidating.

O'Reilly is like Chris Matthews of MSNBC.  They try to "win the debate" by talking FORCEFULLY and talking OVER PEOPLE.  I hate BOTH OF THEM.  Matthews has more "ethics" than O'Reilly....but so does a salamander.  I won't listen to either one of them anymore....they don't interview people...they talk TO their guests.

Quote
People like to have their core beliefs validated, not questioned.

EVERYONE has a "bias" towards what they FIRST believe.  And that can be dangerous.  A LARGE PART of why I will ALWAYS register as an Independent....is that it doesn't give me that "bias".  I believe I should ALWAYS BE LOOKING FOR THE TRUTH.....NO MATTER HOW PAINFUL AND NO MATTER WHAT MY CURRENT POSITION IS.  I try to REMOVE MY BIAS or at least RECOGNIZE IT when I make decisions.

You see people in business ALL THE TIME get "cemented" in their beliefs...and then cut themselves off from looking at FACTS that contradicts their position.  BAD THING TO DO.

If you find yourself on the "wrong side of the facts"....admit you were wrong, look at WHY you were wrong, and then move on.  At least...that's what I TRY to do.

Quote
It takes a lot of courage to consider both sides of a disagreement equally. It's hard work to be a critical thinker, while staying in your favorite echo chamber is relatively easy.

I think THAT is at the "core" of where mankind is EVENTUALLY GOING.  We only do 2 things during our waking hours:  (1) make decisions, and (2) execute on decisions.  The better decisions we make...the better off we are.  It is DEFINITELY AN UNDER-RATED TRAIT.

I don't think it takes "courage" to be a "critical thinker".....I think it takes a RECOGNITION OF LOGIC.....and an ego that is NOT out of control.    IE:  I want to do the best thing.....therefore if I think through things in a CRITICAL MANNER (even if it goes AGAINST what I currently believe)....I will arrive at BETTER DECISIONS.....therefore I should look at things critically.

For mankind to MAKE BETTER DECISIONS....AND BECOME WISER[/b]....it REQUIRES US to become "critical thinkers." I actually DO think that mankind WILL SLOWLY go in that direction (ie..a "Dr. Spock like rational thinking" if you will) in future centuries.  But it will be a SLOW PROCESS.  AND.....we have to set up "parameters" so that the "incentives and disincentives" nudge us in that direction.  We're a LONG WAY FROM GETTING THERE....we're just starting....

In other words....if we have incentives set up to PROMOTE good decisions.....and dis-incentives set up to PENALIZE LYING or BAD DECISIONS.....then good decisions will win out.

Sorry for BLABBING....but it is something that I have seen and I continue to "study" in business.  I have had the good fortune of working for a boss once that was a CRITICAL THINKER.  And he wasn't afraid to admit he was wrong.  It was an INCREDIBLE opportunity to work with someone like that....and I try to emulate that now.




FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

ChasingIce

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #170 on: October 14, 2016, 03:35:42 PM »
Quote
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.

I don't put ANY confidence in any ONE poll.  Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is NOT a poll.  It is a COMPILATION of MANY of the polls (all the polls that meet "scientific criteria").

Applying scientific method to highly subjective polls doesn't really seem much like science to me.  Isn't Nate Silver the guy that said Trump had a 1-in-20 chance of securing the RNC nomination?

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #171 on: October 14, 2016, 03:43:23 PM »
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/news/economy/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-economic-debate/index.html

"Surprise! A presidential debate on the issues". Trump's and Clinton's advisors debated about the U.S. economy on Thursday.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #172 on: October 14, 2016, 03:48:29 PM »
Quote
Applying scientific method to highly subjective polls doesn't really seem much like science to me.  Isn't Nate Silver the guy that said Trump had a 1-in-20 chance of securing the RNC nomination?

Nate is not a "fortune teller".  He is a "statistical nerd" who grinds up data....and then tells you what the chances are of something happening in the future.....GIVEN THE INFORMATION HE HAS NOW.  When the primaries STARTED....THAT IS WHAT THE CHANCES WERE FOR TRUMP according to the information THEN.  As we go through time...we get more and more information....and that changes.

That is why I said....I would take Nate's numbers ON THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 8TH.....AGAINST YOUR NUMBERS FROM ON LINE POLLING.


He has an EXCELLENT RECORD.  But his excellent record is NOT from the beginning of the process.  It is RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION.

I'm still up for that bet..... ;)

The polls (including the COMPILATION of the polls like Nate) are a snapshot of:  "If the election were held today."   So I won't feel comfortable unless the polls on the morning of November 8th BEFORE THE VOTES ARE COUNTED.....show Clinton with a 7% or so gap or more in POPULAR VOTE.  If Nates numbers on that morning are that Trump is likely to win.....I would bet on Trump.  If Nates numbers say that Clinton is likely to win....I would bet on Clinton.

Polls are NOT absolutes.  Only when the election is done....is it an absolute...
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #173 on: October 14, 2016, 04:10:20 PM »
Quote

I don't think it takes "courage" to be a "critical thinker".....I think it takes a RECOGNITION OF LOGIC.....and an ego that is NOT out of control.    IE:  I want to do the best thing.....therefore if I think through things in a CRITICAL MANNER (even if it goes AGAINST what I currently believe)....I will arrive at BETTER DECISIONS.....therefore I should look at things critically.


You're right about the logic. The courage comes after, because not following the herd is hard to do. By the way, that boss of yours is a rare breed, I've had one or two good ones in my forty plus years of working.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #174 on: October 14, 2016, 04:14:38 PM »
[quote


I'm still up for that bet..... ;)



Chasing Ice: I would pass on that bet, I'm reasonably sure you'll lose.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #175 on: October 14, 2016, 04:26:31 PM »
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/media/breitbart-stephen-bannon-donald-trump/index.html

"Donald Trump and the Breitbart election". Dylan Byers is saying in the article that Trump is espousing a worldview held by Stephen Bannon, Trump's campaign chairman.

Additionally, Mike Pence said this morning on the Today show that evidence disproving sexual harassment by Trump will be made available in a matter of hours.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2016, 05:02:45 PM by budmantis »

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #176 on: October 14, 2016, 05:25:41 PM »
Quote
I wouldnt bet on this election for anything.  Its already stranger than fiction.  I dont, however, put much confidence in any poll like you seem to.

I don't put ANY confidence in any ONE poll.  Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is NOT a poll.  It is a COMPILATION of MANY of the polls (all the polls that meet "scientific criteria").

In addition....he makes adjustments to his numbers for the current state of some economic numbers.

And finally....he has a GREAT HISTORY OF BEING RIGHT.  So yes....I have confidence in his SYSTEM AND PROCESS......and HE'S BEEN RIGHT.

Now having said that....if you look at his "numbers".....they are stated in PROBABILITY.  Right now....Clinton has an 87% chance of winning.  So even he is very aware that there is a certain unpredictability.

But if Clinton has a 7% gap in popular vote....I will sleep fine.  Obviously the larger that is...the better I will sleep.

Ahem. Nate Silver has been underestimating Trump every step of the way regarding the Republican nomination. He's been wrong for months on end, and his odds and numbers and secret recipes were consistently lower than the actual polls behind them. I doubt he understands Trump so well.
There's a right wing economic blogger that I read regularly, who has been pointing out Nate Silver's biases about Trump since at least the beginning of they year.
Just as an example, Silver wrote in a January article:
Quote
But if Trump’s polls don’t quite mean what the headlines imply, what do they mean exactly? And even if you take them with a dose of skepticism, could he win the nomination anyway? (Spoiler alert: Yes, although I continue to think Trump’s chances are lower than where betting markets put them.
My heuristic throughout the campaign has been to assume that Trump’s chances are about half of what betting markets say they are. Betting markets currently put Trump’s chances at about 25 percent, so I think they’re about half that — 12 or 13 percent.
At that time this blogger estimated Trump's chances at 50 percent.

On the good news side, the same blogger (who also continually claimed Brexit had a higher chance than the media gave it, based on the same correct reading of social anger) has recently claimed the election is over, and that Trump finished himself. Hopefully, he's right again.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #177 on: October 14, 2016, 06:07:47 PM »
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gingrich-little-trump-is-frankly-pathetic/ar-AAiTSN0

Gingrich in referring to Trump's attack on Speaker Paul Ryan.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #178 on: October 14, 2016, 06:23:01 PM »

That is why I said....I would take Nate's numbers ON THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 8TH.....AGAINST YOUR NUMBERS FROM ON LINE POLLING.


He has an EXCELLENT RECORD.  But his excellent record is NOT from the beginning of the process.  It is RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION.

I'm still up for that bet..... ;)


Sorry, you're trying to tie me to a poll when I've already stated that I don't believe polls are accurately reflecting the real voting public. 

If you're that confident in Nate's predictions (yet to be seen), then how about you take Nate's numbers, and I'll take "he's off by at least 3 points". 

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #179 on: October 14, 2016, 06:24:52 PM »


Chasing Ice: I would pass on that bet, I'm reasonably sure you'll lose.

I appreciate your thoughtful advice.   :D

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #180 on: October 14, 2016, 06:32:34 PM »
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Ahem. Nate Silver has been underestimating Trump every step of the way regarding the Republican nomination. He's been wrong for months on end, and his odds and numbers and secret recipes were consistently lower than the actual polls behind them. I doubt he understands Trump so well.
There's a right wing economic blogger that I read regularly, who has been pointing out Nate Silver's biases about Trump since at least the beginning of they year.

I guess I haven't been very clear.....so let me clear my throat....Ahem.  Ok..now I'm ready ;):

Nate Silver's "models" will ALWAYS be "behind the curve" over time.  ALWAYS.  They are a compilation of polls from any decent pollster over time.  His "reading" at any point in time....will contain BOTH up to date polls....and some polls that are more "out of date".  Some pollsters do polling often....others may not do polling for MONTHS.  Each INDIVIDUAL POLL....is anywhere from 3 days to 7 days BEHIND WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING (it takes 2- 3 days to do the poll...and then another couple days until it comes out).  So there is a LAG IN TIME.  And when a specific pollster DOESN'T PRODUCE ANOTHER POLL FOR 1 MONTH OR TWO MONTHS....then there is going to be some "old information" in Nate's numbers.  He "accounts" for that by giving "more weight" to the more current pollsters....but there is still some lag...so I EXPECT THAT LAG. 

So hearing that Nate's numbers are "always behind"....doesn't surprise me.  I EXPECT THAT BECAUSE I KNOW HIS PROCESS.  As time goes on.....especially this last month of the election, the polling will be MUCH MORE CURRENT....and occur MUCH MORE OFTEN FOR EACH POLLSTER.  So as we approach "D Day"....I feel "very good" about Nate's accuracy.  Of course....knowing that he has been INCREDIBLY ACCURATE OVER THE LAST 12 YEARS also gives me confidence in his numbers.  There's something about him BEING RIGHT that is comforting.

This is REALLY EASY FOR ME....because I have HISTORY AND FACTS ON MY SIDE (actually...on Nate's side...I just read his numbers).  Some of you apparently think that Nate sits in his office and looks at tarot cards to tell him what he "thinks" is going to happen.  HE DOESN'T DO THAT.  He is just a statistical nerd who compiles polls and combines it with the most current economic facts.  That's all.  It is really very "simple" in concept.

The reason that Nate's polls gave Trump almost no chance of winning the Republican primary....is that the POLLS THAT WERE TAKEN EARLY IN THE PROCESS SHOWED THAT.  It had NOTHING to do with any "bias".  This isn't a "FOX NEWS or MSNBC".  It is "statistical science"...PERIOD.

You can agree with that or not.  THAT is up to you.. 

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #181 on: October 14, 2016, 06:47:44 PM »
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Sorry, you're trying to tie me to a poll when I've already stated that I don't believe polls are accurately reflecting the real voting public. 

If you're that confident in Nate's predictions (yet to be seen), then how about you take Nate's numbers, and I'll take "he's off by at least 3 points".


I'm trying to "tie you" to the fact you said that on line polls you looked at showed Trump way ahead.  And apparently...you believed those more than you believed Nate Silver's numbers.  THAT IS WHAT I WAS TIEING YOU TO.

I would suggest that you....or anyone else....take a closer look at Nates numbers...and read on how they are produced.  Even Nate understands THOROUGHLY that there is a "degree of uncertainty"......BECAUSE IT IS A FUTURE EVENT.  All he does...is go by the best polling info he can get his hands on....and then makes an adjustment for the most current economic figures.   If the polling information HE GETS IS BAD.....THAT "error" will be in HIS NUMBERS TOO.

I think we've pretty much beat this poor horse to death.....

When I think of Nate.....I think of Bryon Nelson.  If you are a golf history nut like I am, you will know that he won 11 TOURNAMENTS IN A ROW.  ELVEN.  And a journalist asked him one time during the streak:  "Byron....don't you think you're getting a little lucky?"

To that Byron said:  "You know.....its a funny thing.  The harder I work....the luckier I get."

Nate works pretty hard at producing a good product.  I'll keep my money with Nate.... ;)
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Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #182 on: October 14, 2016, 06:53:20 PM »
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At that time this blogger estimated Trump's chances at 50 percent.

On the good news side, the same blogger (who also continually claimed Brexit had a higher chance than the media gave it, based on the same correct reading of social anger) has recently claimed the election is over, and that Trump finished himself. Hopefully, he's right again.

Maybe you could send along a LINK to the blogger/site.  I'm ALWAYS interested in looking at the "right side of the street".......or....the "left side of the street".   I'm pretty "middle of the road...show me the facts" kind of guy.  But would love to know the website you looked at.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #183 on: October 14, 2016, 06:59:06 PM »


The reason that Nate's polls gave Trump almost no chance of winning the Republican primary....is that the POLLS THAT WERE TAKEN EARLY IN THE PROCESS SHOWED THAT.  It had NOTHING to do with any "bias".  This isn't a "FOX NEWS or MSNBC".  It is "statistical science"...PERIOD.

You can agree with that or not.  THAT is up to you..

It appears you and I are saying the same thing;

 Applying statistical analysis to bunk polls will produce bunk. 

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #184 on: October 14, 2016, 07:01:17 PM »
If anyone is interested in seeing someone who is even MORE UNQUALIFIED THAN DONALD TRUMP.....I have a present for you:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-donald-trump-accusations_us_5800dc49e4b0162c043b6063?section=&

I don't have a "high bar" for people who run for president.  One of my criteria...is that they are more intelligent than I am (Trust me....that is NOT a high bar AT ALL).  So...Dr. Carson certainly EXCEEDS that criteria by a MILE.  But just because you have "book smarts"....does NOT make you the wisest guy on the planet.  That is one of the worst interviews I've seen.  I always knew he wasn't even CLOSE to being "presidential material"....but that interview now disqualifies him for the Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska (population about 7,000).....and Sarah Palin was mayor.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #185 on: October 14, 2016, 07:06:38 PM »
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It appears you and I are saying the same thing;

Applying statistical analysis to bunk polls will produce bunk. 

I don't think we are saying the same thing.

I'm saying:  Nate produces a good product.....using the best polls he can get his hands on, plus some economic data.  As the date for the election draws CLOSER....that data will become better and better.  And by Nate "adjusting polls that HAVE HAD A BIAS HISTORICALLY" (like the Rasmussen Poll)......then he has been EXTREMELY GOOD.....when it is CLOSE TO ELECTION TIME....at picking WHO WILL ACTUALLY WIN.

That...is what I am saying.
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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #186 on: October 14, 2016, 07:47:13 PM »
And by Nate "adjusting polls that HAVE HAD A BIAS HISTORICALLY" (like the Rasmussen Poll)......then he has been EXTREMELY GOOD.....when it is CLOSE TO ELECTION TIME....at picking WHO WILL ACTUALLY WIN.

That...is what I am saying.

except for the RNC Nomination... where Nate whiffed mightily... because the polls were wrong.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #187 on: October 14, 2016, 08:59:58 PM »
More women coming out of the woodwork.  When is Congressman Ryan going to say ENOUGH IS ENOUGH?

We'll have 3.5 weeks more of this.....at some point.....the "Cosby syndrome" is going to take over.  In other words....there will be TOO MANY TO IGNORE.....even for Congressman Ryan.

Trump is a sexual predator.  Trumps enablers are Sean Hannity......Bill O'Reilly.....and FOX News in general.

At FOX News....sexual predators like Bill O'Reilly and Roger Ailes were PROTECTED.  No wonder that Trump is friends with O'Reily and Ailes.

Anyone with a SHRED of dignity would speak out AGAINST Trump.  But....not everyone has dignity.  And that apparently applies to Congressman Ryan.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/summer-zervos-donald-trump_us_58012c8de4b0162c043bec7d?section=&
« Last Edit: October 14, 2016, 09:39:01 PM by Buddy »
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budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #188 on: October 14, 2016, 09:04:03 PM »


Chasing Ice: I would pass on that bet, I'm reasonably sure you'll lose.

I appreciate your thoughtful advice.   :D

Advice is free, so I'll give you one more piece of advice; You've made your point, and Buddy has made his. What is to be gained by further arguing over this? Nothing that I can see, so let it go. If you want to keep arguing, feel free to argue with yourself.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #189 on: October 14, 2016, 09:18:05 PM »
If anyone is interested in seeing someone who is even MORE UNQUALIFIED THAN DONALD TRUMP.....I have a present for you:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben-carson-donald-trump-accusations_us_5800dc49e4b0162c043b6063?section=&


Just saw the video clip, unbelievable! Joe Scarborough was great.

ChasingIce

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #190 on: October 14, 2016, 09:36:46 PM »

Advice is free, so I'll give you one more piece of advice; You've made your point, and Buddy has made his. What is to be gained by further arguing over this? Nothing that I can see, so let it go. If you want to keep arguing, feel free to argue with yourself.

I will... thanks again budmantis.

When POLLS are conducted by biased media sources, you get biased polls.  When You base your entire statistical analysis off biased data, you get biased results.  This is EXACTLY WHY NATE SILVER WAS WRONG ON BREXIT

Let me know if you're comfortable betting on Nate being within 3 points of the "public vote", Buddy.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #191 on: October 14, 2016, 10:29:28 PM »
Here's a good article from Nate Silver....and it discusses the difference between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  It goes into a FEW of things his team looks at.  It will likely give some of you a better sense of what he/they look at....and how they arrive at their conclusion.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-watch-new-hampshire-for-signs-of-a-trump-comeback/

It also shows a "Trump 269" map....and you can see why North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada are important states for Clinton.  But she LIKELY only needs ONE of those.





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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #192 on: October 15, 2016, 12:08:53 AM »
The reason that Nate's polls gave Trump almost no chance of winning the Republican primary....is that the POLLS THAT WERE TAKEN EARLY IN THE PROCESS SHOWED THAT.  It had NOTHING to do with any "bias".  This isn't a "FOX NEWS or MSNBC".  It is "statistical science"...PERIOD.

You can agree with that or not.  THAT is up to you..

I do disagree, having followed his process over the last year. I believe his statistical method is based on models that do not accurately represent the new social situation.
Anyway, let's just hope Trump stays down until Nov 8.

ChasingIce

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #193 on: October 15, 2016, 01:19:09 AM »
How about this for another random (biased) sample.

Facebook friends who like POTUS Candidates:

Trump = 58
Johnson = 36
Clinton = 26
Stein = 4

Does that reflect how people will actually vote?  Of course not.  Its certainly different than what you hear reported though.  Different enough to ponder anyways.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #194 on: October 15, 2016, 01:22:16 AM »

Quote
I do disagree, having followed his process over the last year. I believe his statistical method is based on models that do not accurately represent the new social situation.
Anyway, let's just hope Trump stays down until Nov 8
.

And reasonable people CAN and DO arrive at different conclusions.

By the way....if you could post the LINK for the website you mentioned that you looked at...I would still like to see it....so I can go look at that site myself.  Thanks ahead of time..

Buddy




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budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #195 on: October 15, 2016, 02:30:11 AM »
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/media/breitbart-stephen-bannon-donald-trump/index.html


Additionally, Mike Pence said this morning on the Today show that evidence disproving sexual harassment by Trump will be made available in a matter of hours.

I don't know about anyone else but I'm still waiting for the evidence Mike Pence promised us proving Trump's innocence in these harassment allegations.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #196 on: October 15, 2016, 02:35:33 AM »
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I don't know about anyone else but I'm still waiting for the evidence Mike Pence promised us proving Trump's innocence in these harassment allegations.

I think that will be presented when Donald Trump presents the evidence HE PROMISED about Obama not being born in Hawaii.... ;)

Which will likely be about the same time he shows the tax returns Trump has promised..... ;)

Saturday Night Live should be good this week.  But if I'm SNL.....I would ask Trump to "get the good stuff out early in the week" so they have time to prepare.  These Friday night leaks are killing them....
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budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #197 on: October 15, 2016, 02:46:39 AM »
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I don't know about anyone else but I'm still waiting for the evidence Mike Pence promised us proving Trump's innocence in these harassment allegations.

I think that will be presented when Donald Trump presents the evidence HE PROMISED about Obama not being born in Hawaii.... ;)

Which will likely be about the same time he shows the tax returns Trump has promised..... ;)

Saturday Night Live should be good this week.  But if I'm SNL.....I would ask Trump to "get the good stuff out early in the week" so they have time to prepare.  These Friday night leaks are killing them....

Yeah, SNL should be great. I like politics but I'll be glad when this election is over. So let's map out a timeline for Trump's so called evidence, his birther claims and his tax returns. The answer is NEVER, NEVER and NEVER.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #198 on: October 15, 2016, 03:00:50 AM »

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #199 on: October 15, 2016, 05:20:25 AM »
Buddy wrote: "The 5 states I am keeping my eyes..."

Those are good ones. I'm being optimistic about them, so I am also watching Arizona, which is now close in the poles, and where McCain finally publicly renounced Trump.

Also Utah, where Mormon & Utahan independent McMullin has made the race there...interesting...and where Trump lost by a lot to Cruz in the primaries.

Even Georgia, Texas and Alaska may end up being interesting to watch, but that's maybe beeing too optimistic at this point.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."