Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

Who are you going to vote for?

Clinton
31 (70.5%)
Johnson
2 (4.5%)
Stein
6 (13.6%)
Trump
1 (2.3%)
Not going to vote / going to spoil ballot
4 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 43

Voting closed: November 26, 2016, 07:11:49 AM

Author Topic: The Trump Presidency  (Read 605526 times)

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #300 on: October 25, 2016, 10:02:39 PM »
More "Trump" fallout in the "Trump Empire".....

https://www.yahoo.com/style/women-are-boycotting-ivanka-trumps-fashion-line-and-the-stores-that-sell-it-200910513.html

It's only going to get worse for them in months and years ahead....
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #301 on: October 26, 2016, 06:36:57 AM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bill-oreilly-rigged-election_us_58101db6e4b02b1d9e63ba93

"Bill O'Reilly turns on Trump. says talk of "rigged" election "is not a patriotic thing".

"The vote cannot possibly be rigged two weeks from tonight".

In my opinion, O'Reilly has been unusually deferential to Trump during this campaign, but it looks like he's grown a pair in the closing weeks. Good for him.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #302 on: October 26, 2016, 06:46:18 AM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/vote-protectors-voter-intimidation_us_580e4e63e4b0a03911ee03bc

"Trump loyalists planned voter intimidation using fake ID badges, fake exit polling - until Huffpost asked them about it".

"The 'vote protectors' are affiliated with Trump advisor Roger Stone".

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #303 on: October 26, 2016, 06:49:03 AM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-down-ballot-republicans_us_580e8b40e4b02444efa4f52e

"Donald Trump's get out the vote problem could cost Republicans bigly".

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #304 on: October 26, 2016, 06:55:53 AM »
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/panicking-gop-makes-major-last-minute-senate-investment-230309

Extract: Republicans on the verge of losing the Senate, are plowing a mammoth 25 million into six races, in a last ditch attempt to stop Donald Trump from dragging the entire GOP down with him.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #305 on: October 26, 2016, 01:00:21 PM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-37756189

"US elections: Africans chuckle at ugly US election".

"Africans are laughing at the U.S. election on twitter".

Love that picture! ;D

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #306 on: October 26, 2016, 01:10:16 PM »
Right now....the popular vote gap is 6% (down from 7%).   If it continues to tighten....down to 5% or 4% the Clinton "firewall" (important states to stop any FURTHER incursion) are:

1)  Pennsylvania (Clinton's most important state)
2)  Nevada
3)  New Hampshire
4)  Minnesota
5)  Wisconsin

Those last two states are "wildcards".  There hasn't been a lot of polling....and they "should" go to Clinton....but if for whatever reason one of them "breaks" the other way.....THAT would be a VERY BIG DEAL....which is why Clinton is playing for Arizona...."just in case."

I think Trump is going to take Ohio and Iowa.....and I have thought that for a while.  So to me...they aren't battleground states anymore.

If Clinton were to have a "bad day" (low voter turnout for instance)....and Trump were to take the closely contested states of North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona.....then Clinton could still win AS LONG AS Minnesota and Wisconsin stay in her column (assuming she wins Penn and Virginia and Colorado which I have as "locks").  IF she was to lose either Minnesota or Wisconsin.....then she would need to take ARIZONA to win (Nevada would not be enough for her).

Again....I think the race is going to tighten in the last two weeks.  How much...I have no idea.  Hopefully Clinton gets a victory EARLY (East Coast Time) like North Carolina OR Florida that would put the election away....but if she doesn't....it could be a late night.

 

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #307 on: October 26, 2016, 01:48:57 PM »
Again....I think the race is going to tighten in the last two weeks.  How much...I have no idea.  Hopefully Clinton gets a victory EARLY (East Coast Time) like North Carolina OR Florida that would put the election away....but if she doesn't....it could be a late night.

Buddy: In my estimation, I think Clinton will win by a minimum of 4 to 5 points. What would cause the margin of victory to be less than 4 points in your estimation?

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #308 on: October 26, 2016, 03:07:26 PM »
Quote
Buddy: In my estimation, I think Clinton will win by a minimum of 4 to 5 points. What would cause the margin of victory to be less than 4 points in your estimation?

No telling.  Per my post a couple days ago....I expect the popular vote margin to be 4% -  5%.  Voters are getting more and more "locked in"....so it will take something bigger NOW to change a voters mind.

If you look at the second chart in the link below....the "chances of winning" graph....you'll see why I thought about 1.5 weeks ago was the intermediate "peak" (October 17th)....and we have been SLOWLY "rolling over".  By election day....we may be at 64% - 67% Clinton and 33% - 36% Trump.  That would likely be about 4% or slightly more popular vote for Clinton.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

It depends on what happens with "events".  Middle east?  China?  Russia?  Wiki?  Stock market?  Remember...we're trying to figure out what OTHERS are going to do.  So it is hard to predict what OTHERS' reaction to news is going to be.

The polls are based on what real people say.  But all polls have an "error factor" that surrounds them.  Obviously the lower that Trump is able to get the popular vote gap....the better his chances come election day.  We also have WEATHER to contend with.  Better weather means better turnout....means better chances for the Democrat's.  Worse weather...or lower turnout....means better chances for Republicans.



 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #309 on: October 26, 2016, 03:45:03 PM »
A little "perspective" on election cost in the US:

1)  This presidential election will likely run about $1.5 BILLION for both party's combined (hint....YES....that is obscene).  In an age where everyone has access to the internet....WHY ON EARTH DO WE HAVE POLITICAL RALLIES where the candidates say the same boring thing TIME AFTER TIME?  The only people who go to political rallies are people who are so jazzed up about THAT candidate.....they are going to vote ANYWAY....no matter what.

In an internet age.....I think we could trim that down by about 75%....and that money could do a LOT BETTER JOB in (1) job training (2) climate research (3) education (4) military, etc..etc. etc.

Personally.....as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE....I would like to see a "cap" on spending (for ALL political races). 

2)  The "bonuses" that the army paid to people to re-enlist that are now a controversy....were $25 million.....OR......1/60th of what they spent on the presidential campaign. Or....here's $125 million we could have saved and instead used it to pay the bonus 5 times over:

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2014/12/18/congress-again-buys-abrams-tanks-the-army-doesnt-want.html

The "conservative party" (Republicans) have become a JOKE because they AREN'T FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE AT ALL.


Sorry for the RANDOM RANT....
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

solartim27

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 547
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #310 on: October 26, 2016, 05:07:03 PM »
It depends on what happens with "events".  Middle east?  China?  Russia?  Wiki?  Stock market?  Remember...we're trying to figure out what OTHERS are going to do.  So it is hard to predict what OTHERS' reaction to news is going to be.
About 40% of people (make that voters) will vote before Nov 8, many have already, so future events are not as critical.
FNORD

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #311 on: October 26, 2016, 05:38:02 PM »
Quote
About 40% of people (make that voters) will vote before Nov 8, many have already, so future events are not as critical.

It's still early.  About 10 million people have voted so far.....out of about 127 million.  The next week should increase that substantially.....but there is still a LOT OF TIME...and a LOT OF VOTES yet to be cast.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1355
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 148
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #312 on: October 26, 2016, 05:57:55 PM »
  . . .
Personally.....as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE....I would like to see a "cap" on spending (for ALL political races). 
. . .

You're right, of course.  The American election system is insane.  This actually does have implications for global warming.  When those with money get massively disproportionate political influence in a nation, policy becomes ossified, and positive change is hampered by policy inertia.  Big Oil is fairly certain to have a longer run of influence in the US than most other nations. 

Unfortunately, no mere law can now change this.  Thanks to the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, the "Citizens United" decision means that the wealthy have a constitutional right to spend as much as they want, independently of political parties, to influence election outcomes.  Only a new Supreme Court decision reversing that judgment can now correct the situation.

Which means that there's a lot more riding on this election than just 4 or 8 years of more inertia.  Trump and the Republicans want to preserve the Citizens United decision, because they tend to benefit more from big money.  Trump would nominate justices accordingly.  Justices serve for life, so the next President will influence the political climate for DECADES.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #313 on: October 26, 2016, 06:24:12 PM »
Quote
Which means that there's a lot more riding on this election than just 4 or 8 years of more inertia.  Trump and the Republicans want to preserve the Citizens United decision, because they tend to benefit more from big money.  Trump would nominate justices accordingly.  Justices serve for life, so the next President will influence the political climate for DECADES.

Absolutely.  The Supreme Court makeup.....and global warming....are the two biggest issues riding on this election.  There will be at least 2 justices confirmed over the next 4 years...and maybe more.  Right now....the split is 4:4.  So with the one vacant seat.....plus with Ginsberg likely to retire soon....the split will be 5:4 in favor of "the leftish".

And yes....Citizens United is a HUGE deal....and I would LOVE to see the Supreme Court reverse their stance in the coming years.

BIG ELECTION....WITH HUGE STAKES.... 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17167
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 337
  • Likes Given: 209
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #314 on: October 27, 2016, 12:30:47 AM »
While polls can be biased or plan wrong; nevertheless, per the linked website, & associated image, the New York Times gives Hillary a 92% chance of winning as of Oct 26 2016:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

That said, if Hillary wins, the US House of Representative may not fill the 9th Supreme Court seat during her term in office.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #315 on: October 27, 2016, 12:44:58 AM »
That said, if Hillary wins, the US House of Representative may not fill the 9th Supreme Court seat during her term in office.

ASLR: The Senate is responsible for advise and consent on Supreme Court nominees as well as Circuit court of appeals nominees, not the House of Representatives. Here's hoping that the Democrats get a majority in the Senate so Supreme Court nominees get a shot at an up or down vote.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #316 on: October 27, 2016, 12:51:19 AM »
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/index.html

"Early voting numbers show Clinton's strength in Arizona, other battlegrounds".

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17167
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 337
  • Likes Given: 209
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #317 on: October 27, 2016, 12:57:02 AM »
ASLR: The Senate is responsible for advise and consent on Supreme Court nominees as well as Circuit court of appeals nominees, not the House of Representatives. Here's hoping that the Democrats get a majority in the Senate so Supreme Court nominees get a shot at an up or down vote.

You are correct.  But who knows, if the current Republican U.S. Senate does not confirm Merrick Garland before Hillary takes office (see below), she might withdraw Garland's nomination & nominate a more liberal justice:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/26/cruz-says-theres-precedent-for-keeping-ninth-supreme-court-seat-empty/

Extract: "Speaking to reporters after a campaign rally for a Republican U.S. Senate candidate here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) said that there was “precedent” for a Supreme Court with fewer than nine justices — appearing to suggest that the blockade on nominee Merrick Garland could last past the election.

“You know, I think there will be plenty of time for debate on that issue,” said Cruz, when he was asked whether a Republican-controlled Senate should hold votes on a President Hillary Clinton’s nominees. “There is certainly long historical precedent for a Supreme Court with fewer justices. I would note, just recently, that Justice Breyer observed that the vacancy is not impacting the ability of the court to do its job. That’s a debate that we are going to have.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #318 on: October 27, 2016, 01:17:30 AM »
I was about to post the same article myself ASLR. It seems unimaginable that either party would hold back on any Court nominee for four years.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2912
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 256
  • Likes Given: 145
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #319 on: October 27, 2016, 02:06:47 AM »
I'm one of the 10 million (or whatever) who has voted early.  Now, if I should die unexpected, I'll die content (or something like that).
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #320 on: October 27, 2016, 06:23:55 AM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-fundraising_us_5810fd90e4b0390e69cdd84d

"Thanks to Trump, RNC is in a bad financial position heading into the general election".

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #321 on: October 27, 2016, 06:26:38 AM »

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #322 on: October 27, 2016, 02:43:26 PM »
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/it%E2%80%99ll-get-worse-after-the-election/ar-AAjm6D3?ocid=spartandhp

Article from the Daily Beast, by Jeff Greenfield. "It'll get worse after the election".

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #323 on: October 27, 2016, 02:47:01 PM »
http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/27/feds-concerned-about-risk-of-violence-as-election-day-nears/21592536/

Extract: Trump supporters held up Clinton "target practice" posters at a rally in Florida Monday, with a bulls-eye framing her face.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #324 on: October 27, 2016, 02:57:21 PM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/harry-reid-senate-gop-supreme-court_us_58114f13e4b0390e69ce2f56?vuxm94v8lp9hzuayvi

"Harry Reid warns of "Constitutional Crisis" if Democrats don't win back the Senate".

By Marina Fang.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #325 on: October 27, 2016, 03:01:14 PM »
You over there might not find this interesting but I did. Lisbeth Åkerman from our national televison made a series of short documentaries from five different cities in the US, where she talks with cab-drivers about the election.
http://www.svtplay.se/video/10765111/lisbeth-tar-taxi/lisbeth-tar-taxi-avsnitt-1
I thought there would only be four episodes, but now there's eight.

Unsurprisingly there's nothing about the most important issue, but the last guy in episode eight (Avsnitt 8 ) actually has a point with voting for Clinton.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #326 on: October 27, 2016, 03:18:14 PM »
A REALLY nice round of state polls out this morning for Clinton (plus a good national poll from NBC/Wall Street Journal):

Pennsylvania 46/39 in favor of Clinton
Florida 43/39 in favor of Clinton
Michigan 41/34 in favor of Clinton
New Hampshire 43/38 in favor of Clinton

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

The Pennsylvania and Florida polls are especially "pleasing".  12 more days....... ;D
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #327 on: October 27, 2016, 03:45:25 PM »
Here's an ESPECIALLY NICE "take down" of Newt Gingrich by Republican strategist Anna Navarro:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/anderson-cooper-cant-believe-newt-gingrichs-latest-nonsense_us_5811a5b2e4b0990edc2f3a0b

You are who you surround yourself by:  Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christi, and Roger Ailes.   When you add in Trump....that is kind of the "all-stars of stench."

 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #328 on: October 27, 2016, 04:46:00 PM »
Yale...as a 503(c)(3) not-for-profit.....takes their tax status SERIOUSLY.  So they don't endorse EITHER candidate (explicitly).  However.....read the "non endorsement"....it's the best non-endorsement Clinton has received:

http://yalerecord.org/2016/10/26/the-yale-record-does-not-endorse-hillary-clinton/
« Last Edit: October 27, 2016, 06:18:04 PM by Buddy »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #329 on: October 27, 2016, 06:26:27 PM »
Early voting in Texas is HEAVY so far.  Here are a few paragraphs copied from the article link at the bottom of the page.  I STILL DON'T think Texas could possibly go "blue".....but....could this be the "attack of the bad hombres?"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On October 25th, the second day of 2016 early voting, an additional 600,000 people voted, bringing the total so far up to 987,000, or ten percent of the state’s voting population. This is an increase of roughly 342,000 votes from the second day of early voting in 2012, and by that point four years ago, only seven percent of the state’s population had cast a ballot. Texas has not yet released its numbers for October 26th.

Of the 15 counties for which early voting information has been made available, the average county has seen an increase of votes cast of 53.9 percent. The state does not release information about how many Democrats and Republicans voted. But there are seven counties where the spike is higher than the average of 53 percent, and of those seven counties, five voted for Barack Obama in 2012. Of the counties that voted for Obama in 2012, there has been an average increased number of votes of 64.7 percent, but of the counties that went for Mitt Romney, the average increase has been 44.5 percent. This all suggests that Texas Democrats may be much more enthusiastic than usual this year.

By far the biggest spike has been in Travis County, which is extremely Democratic and which voted for Barack Obama in 2012. Travis County has seen an increased number of votes of 119 percent, with about 46,000 more people voting early there than did by this point in 2012.

http://heavy.com/news/2016/10/texas-early-voting-results-turnout-by-county-2016-polling-hours-places-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-democratic-republican/

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #330 on: October 27, 2016, 08:28:41 PM »
Sound familiar?  Here is New Gingrich back in 2012 right before that election:  "Two parallel universe's.  I predict Romney in a landslide."



Newt is full of so much BULL.........
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #331 on: October 28, 2016, 06:19:52 AM »
Here's another one to sue after the election for T rump:
http://www.iltasanomat.fi/viihde/art-2000001939677.html

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #332 on: October 28, 2016, 06:31:06 AM »
Unsurprisingly there's nothing about the most important issue, but the last guy in episode eight (Avsnitt 8 ) actually has a point with voting for Clinton.

Enjoyed the videos Sleepy, thanks. Trump stated today that the election should be cancelled and he should be declared the winner. I'm wondering what title would best fit our new leader if his wish was granted; Il Duce, Generalissimo, Der Fuehrer? Any suggestions?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/donald-trump-cancel-election/index.html

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #333 on: October 28, 2016, 06:56:45 AM »
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/republicans-split-supreme-court-vacancy-230395

"Republicans at war over Supreme Court".

"Senate Republicans are girding for a brutal conflict over how to handle the lingering Supreme Court vacancy".

Senator Jeff Flake, a conservative Republican, is being remarkably pragmatic. If he's not careful, other conservatives will end up labeling him a RINO (Republican in name only). He refuses to endorse Trump and is now pushing back on Ted Cruz's and other Republicans attempt at delaying court appointments in a likely Clinton presidency.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #334 on: October 28, 2016, 08:01:42 AM »
Unsurprisingly there's nothing about the most important issue, but the last guy in episode eight (Avsnitt 8 ) actually has a point with voting for Clinton.

Enjoyed the videos Sleepy, thanks. Trump stated today that the election should be cancelled and he should be declared the winner. I'm wondering what title would best fit our new leader if his wish was granted; Il Duce, Generalissimo, Der Fuehrer? Any suggestions?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/donald-trump-cancel-election/index.html
A more present suggestion might be; Dear Leader?
The meaning of Caring, is unknown to both.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #335 on: October 28, 2016, 08:18:32 AM »
LOL! Kim Jong Un looks like he could use another cheeseburger or two. Better yet, add an extra large order of fries with that order. Okay, "Dear Leader" is duly added, any other suggestions for his excellency, the Donald?

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #336 on: October 28, 2016, 12:50:03 PM »
Looks like "The Donald" is pushing business.....or at least INVOICES.....to his businesses.  I would suspect this would be an auditor's nightmare.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-campaign-hotels_us_5812c0b4e4b064e1b4b18c7a

I'm sure that if there is ANY "mixed use" (ie part hotel related.....and part campaign related) the bill is invoiced to the campaign.

And this is likely how his total campaign has been run.  For all we know...Trump has MADE MONEY on "renting" his jet to his campaign.  Great deal....yes.  Except if you were the unwitting donor to his campaign.....and didn't really want your donation going to an INFLATED "jet expense".

And his monthly invoice to the campaign for "office space" in the Trump Tower?  That goes straight to the bottom line of his office building.  That was space that COULDN'T be rented out....and per a report I saw....he is vastly overcharging for that space, and has been his whole campaign.

So when you hear that Donald Trump has contributed $60 million to his campaign.....don't believe it.  He will try to milk this to the very end.......and beyond.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #337 on: October 28, 2016, 03:16:08 PM »
Economic "dagger to the heart" of Republicans today.  The third quarter (July/Aug/Sept) US Gross Domestic Product was just announced.  It was 2.9%.....which is greater than the "expected" 2.6%....and much better than growth over the last year or more of just over 1%.  Strongest growth since 2013.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-2-9-in-third-quarter-1477657992

That....will be good news on the campaign trail for the next week.  There is one more "significant" economic report that will come out next Friday....and that is the "October Jobs Report".....but probably half the country will have already voted....so that last report is unlikely to move the needle EITHER WAY.

 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #338 on: October 28, 2016, 03:23:34 PM »
Clinton now needs to make sure she "buttons up" Pennsylvania.  That is one to watch closely over the next 10 days.  As long as she takes Pennsylvania and North Carolina....then she will be fine.  But she HAS to take Pennsylvania.

The popular vote difference is now 5.7% and I expect that to "tighten" into the 4% - 5% range in the next 10 days.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #339 on: October 28, 2016, 04:12:02 PM »
Saw that T rump used Michael Moore's new film as propaganda in a tweet. I still can't comprehend that, is he aware that the year is 2016? Here's Moore's reply:
https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/791828594809008128


Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #340 on: October 28, 2016, 05:02:07 PM »
Quote
Economic "dagger to the heart" of Republicans today.  The third quarter (July/Aug/Sept) US Gross Domestic Product was just announced.  It was 2.9%.....which is greater than the "expected" 2.6%....and much better than growth over the last year or more of just over 1%.  Strongest growth since 2013.

One other thing to note on "economic news"....is that we are now nearing the end of "year 8 of Obamageddon".

Some of you may remember back during Obama's candidacy that there were those who predicted "financial Armageddon".  Well....that certainly didn't happen.

But we have had almost 8 years of FOX saying how HORRIBLE THINGS ARE.  Remember when FOX said how WONDERFUL things were during the Bush administration?

Well....there is good news.  Because while FOX has been trying to convince everyone who watches them how horrible the economy is......that causes their viewers to be VERY CAUTIOUS with their spending.....and likely save more than they would otherwise.....and pay down debt.  But that won't continue to happen as long as the economy continues to heal and grow.

So now we find ourselves HERE:

1)  An economy that looks like it is starting to grow stronger (2.9% GDP last quarter)
2)  5% unemployment
3)  Wages starting to rise more for middle income earners
4)  Everyone has apparently survived the "Obama years" and Armageddon didn't happen
5)  Energy costs remain low...and renewable costs continue to DROP LIKE A STONE....which will be good for everyone's pocket book's.....in essence a continued tax break.
6)  AND....as long as that old grumpy man...Trump....doesn't win (it aint over till it's over)....a DARK CLOUD has been removed from the horizon of everyone's psyche.

So FOX News may have done Clinton a big favor over the past 8 years:  Create fear in their viewers minds so they don't spend as much.  Because eventually.....they will start to spend their growing bank accounts.  And millennial's are starting to leave their parents houses and gain more confidence.  Fundamentals EVENTUALLY win out.

"Animal spirits" COULD be on Clinton's side in the coming year or two.  We'll find out soon enough.  The two big issues to deal with in MY MIND....are (1) Citizens United (she needs to get that to the Supreme court WITHIN 2 years), and (2) global warming.

 




FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #341 on: October 28, 2016, 06:05:24 PM »
I hope you're right Buddy. From Politico: "GOP insiders say polls don't capture secret Trump vote".

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-shy-voters-polls-gop-insiders-230411


budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #342 on: October 28, 2016, 06:23:54 PM »
Saw that T rump used Michael Moore's new film as propaganda in a tweet.

I like Michael Moore, and his assertions in this video are accurate. He does engage in hyperbole near the end by stating if Trump becomes President, he could be our country's last President.

There are "checks and balances" that would render President Trump ineffective at best. Trump would likely face impeachment or at the very least, would not get reelected. His faithful followers will quickly become disillusioned and his poll numbers will drop further than they did for George W. Bush.

I think our country can withstand four years of "lunacy" in the White House, but I hope it doesn't have to!

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #343 on: October 28, 2016, 06:26:18 PM »
Quote
I hope you're right Buddy. From Politico: "GOP insiders say polls don't capture secret Trump vote".

It's NOT me that is going to be "right" or "wrong".  It will be Nate....and his statistical wizardry.  And the more it tightens....the more it can go EITHER WAY.

Ten days left...  And as I said before..."it ain't over till it's over."  We'll see how tight it is on November 8th.

I will be fascinated to see the "after the elections" dissection of what happened (whoever wins):

1)  Breakdown of vote by gender
2)  Breakdown of vote by age group
3)  Breakdown of vote by race
4)  What was the vote in Texas....did Clinton REALLY come within 3% of wining or did she get beat by 8% or more.
5)  What was the vote in Arizona.  Can that REALLY turn blue in coming elections.

In a divorce there is always 3 sides to the story:  His side....her side....and the truth.  And the same goes for political campaigns.  We are soon coming upon the day when we will know the truth of how the vote was diced up.....who won AND WHY.

The NEXT senate elections in two years will be BRUTAL for the Democrat's.  Here is a map of the seats that are UP for election.  All those blue states.....are current DEMOCRAT's that are up for election.  And you can see that not many Republican seats come up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

IF Hillary is fortunate enough to win....she better get her butt in gear.  Because even if she has a senate majority in 2016......SHE WON'T HAVE MAJORITY AFTER THE 2018 election.







FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #344 on: October 28, 2016, 07:08:11 PM »
Here is the BEST ARTICLE.....BY FAR....about the 2016 election.  And I agree TOTALLY with his conclusion about BOTH FOX and CNN:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-york-times-editor-cnn-fox-news_us_58135442e4b0990edc3065ca

The media REALLY "screwed the pooch" in this election cycle.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #345 on: October 28, 2016, 08:14:47 PM »
Like I said....."it's never over till it's over."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-email-stocks_us_58138ae0e4b0390e69cfd986

Much ado about nothing.....or is their meat on the bone?  I would assume we would find out something over the next week.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #346 on: October 28, 2016, 09:06:59 PM »
Like I said....."it's never over till it's over."


I was about to post the same article. Although I hate to see it happen now, we might as well get to the bottom of it sooner rather than later. This could get UGLY!

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #347 on: October 28, 2016, 09:27:58 PM »
I think our country can withstand four years of "lunacy" in the White House, but I hope it doesn't have to!
He's saying:
MICHAEL MOORE: What I'm saying is if we elect Donald Trump as president of this country, it won't be the same country after four years. I'm absolutely convinced of that. This is the most vile, disgusting candidate that has ever run for office in this country.


Personally I'm thinking more about the rest of the world and how a president like him would affect those who really hate the US and have done so for a very long time. Apart from climate change you have another undiscussed and unsolved issue:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/afghanistan-is-the-dirty-little-secret-of-the-us-presidential-campaign

This isn't the documentary I was thinking about (that one was aired on our national TV several years ago and I couldn't find it) but it shows more or less the same, how some people are raising their kids:

It's a mess.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #348 on: October 28, 2016, 09:47:26 PM »
Quote
Personally I'm thinking more about the rest of the world and how a president like him would affect those who really hate the US and have done so for a very long time.

ABSOLUTELY AGREE.  He would do LONG LASTING damage to relationships abroad.  He has ZERO...ZIPPO...NADDA.....credibility with foreign leaders.  NONE.

And he has a HORRIBLE "decision making process":

A)  Don't talk to experts in the field (scientists, generals, etc)
B)  FIRE
C)  READY
D)  AIM
E)  Now.....let's pick up the pieces.

I don't think the current issue will be a big deal...I really don't.  But we'll see....


FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #349 on: October 29, 2016, 06:55:38 AM »
I think our country can withstand four years of "lunacy" in the White House, but I hope it doesn't have to!

Personally I'm thinking more about the rest of the world and how a president like him would affect those who really hate the US and have done so for a very long time. Apart from climate change you have another undiscussed and unsolved issue:


Sleepy: It wasn't my intention to come across in a callous or cavalier way with my response to your post, so I apologize if that's how it sounded. I read the linked article above, but was unable to watch the video, something about it not being available.

I agree with your concerns about a Trump presidency and the potential damage it will cause. I also agree with Michael Moore about Trump being the most vile and disgusting candidate for President ever. The only point of disagreement I have with Moore is that there will be another election four years from now and there will be future Presidents, (hopefully much better choices than we now have).

Yes, there are countries out there that hate the US as well as Europe. They'll hate us no matter who is elected President. The only way these Islamic countries wont hate us is if we all convert to Islam en masse.

As far as what to do with Afghanistan, all I can say is they have to stand on their own at some point. We all know that invading Iraq in 2003 ended up with the U.S. diverting resources and troops away from Afghanistan. If the focus had remained on Afghanistan alone, maybe the outcome would have been far better, but that's in the past. As to what to do now, what would you suggest? Is the EU willing to commit funds and resources necessary to solve the Afghan problem in conjunction with a renewed U.S. commitment to do the same?

Even if the EU and the U.S. did, would it provide a long term solution and bring peace and prosperity to Afghanistan? I have my doubts. Unfortunately, the FBI has reopened the Clinton email probe based on what seems on the surface to be dubious reasons. This obviously casts doubt on the outcome of our presidential election and increases the chances for a Trump presidency. I have included two articles on the subject.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/28/politics/fbi-reviewing-new-emails-in-clinton-probe-director-tells-senate-judiciary-committee/index.html

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/fbi-clinton-new-probe-trump-hails-230460