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Poll

Who are you going to vote for?

Clinton
31 (70.5%)
Johnson
2 (4.5%)
Stein
6 (13.6%)
Trump
1 (2.3%)
Not going to vote / going to spoil ballot
4 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 43

Voting closed: November 26, 2016, 07:11:49 AM

Author Topic: The Trump Presidency  (Read 603712 times)

Pmt111500

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #400 on: November 07, 2016, 01:34:17 PM »
My guess is some foreigner who's fed up with this
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #401 on: November 07, 2016, 01:45:10 PM »
And for those of you voting for ECONOMIC REASONS:

GDP grew at 2.9% in the third quarter (July/Aug/Sep).  I expect the economy to continue growing in the 2% - 3% range while much of the world is slowly picking itself up off the mat (particularly Europe and Asia).  The unemployment rate is down to 4.9%.  It was 8.3% at the end of Obama's first full month in office.  THAT...is called progress.  And we need to continue it.

One of the things that could be "unleashed" in the next couple of quarters.....is what is referred to by "behavioral economists" is the "animal spirits."

I think that if Clinton wins.....the "dark cloud of Trump" will be removed.  And that....in COMBINATION with the underlying fundamentals, will propel the economy forward at a reasonable rate over the next year.

If Trump were to win....that would be a big negative, not just in the US....but in Europe as well.  Most (not all) European leaders seem to be much more receptive to Clinton.  And from the reading I have done IN THE STATES....it appears the people of Europe are more receptive to Clinton than Trump.

That "psychological effect" is something that economist Robert Schiller writes about often...and incorporates into his economic forecasts and thinking.

But we REALLY need to get through Tuesday with a Clinton win....so we can rid ourselves of this DARK CLOUD called Trump

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #402 on: November 07, 2016, 02:12:15 PM »
Here's an interesting article regarding a "harsh" look at fivethirtyeight.com's poll.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_us_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

It's an interesting read....and I always try to keep an open (Independent) mind when I look at things.  For those of you that are "wigged out" or "worried" because of the dropping % for Clinton in the 538.com model...you will likely like this article.

One very good point brought up in the article.....is that models are ONLY as good as their input.  The BIG THINGS that will impact the vote tomorrow are:

1)  Is the % of Hispanic voters in the model correct?
2)  Is the number of black voters in the model correct?
3)  Is the women's voter percentage used in the model correct?
4)  Is the number of non-college educated in the model correct?

As pointed out in the model.....garbage in, garbage out.  So it will be a look at the ACTUAL %'s by "voter group" after the election that will be interesting to me.

There will no doubt be SOME surprises.  Will Michigan go for Trump?  Will Arizona or Georgia go for Clinton?  Will there REALLY be a cascade of Hispanic votes that push Clinton to victory?

Going to be interesting.  By the way...if Trump wins....markets will dip dramatically.  They will recover INTERMEDIATE TERM.....but long term it would not be good.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #403 on: November 07, 2016, 02:53:40 PM »
Here is where I THINK things will end up after the votes are counted:

307 Clinton
231 Trump

In the "battleground states".....

Clinton takes Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida (VERY CLOSE)....and yes...Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

Trump takes North Carolina (by a whisker), Iowa, Ohio, 1 Maine district, Arizona, Georgia.

Clinton wins popular vote by 4% over Trump.

Gary Johnson receives LESS THAN 5% of popular vote....about 4.3%. 

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sleepy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #404 on: November 07, 2016, 03:04:41 PM »
My guess is some foreigner who's fed up with this
Maybe, there's a lot of people who never get further than this:

magnamentis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #405 on: November 07, 2016, 03:20:31 PM »
in reality real and groundbreaking improvements evolve mostly from catastrophic events like wars and cruel revolutions but a few things could be done:


there is much more to tell but then in short, hold the guys finally responsible for what they're doing
and what they're NOT doing as announced in their electoral campaings. this will get us rid of all the ridiculous promises as well as it will get us rid of those who brake the rules.

- prohibit lobbyism
- prohibit money flow into campaigns other than a specific amount for all the same paid from taxes
- implement a law-enforcement entity only for civilc servants and polititions
- implement laws that treat political lies as what they are; "fraud"
- plebiscite for every change from published and signed programs
- prison sentences and seizure of the better part of fortunes of those caught in major violations
- prohibition of further political activity including denial of voting rights for those caught in violations
- plebiscite to let the people approve exceptions from anything above
- settings some standards like maximum income, minimum education etc. to make someone
  eligible. with minimum education i don't mean degrees but a minimum number of fields someone
  has some minimum knowledge (a more holistic approach instead of specialization) and the
  practicable way would probably be some kind of exam with unknown tasks form a select and
  widely spread number of topics (i.e. climate, weather, finance, law, health etc. )
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 03:26:31 PM by magnamentis »

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #406 on: November 07, 2016, 03:25:40 PM »
Here is an add from the CURRENT Republican Governor of Ohio.....John Kasich (this ad was from November 2015 when Kasich was running against Trump):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/24/the-ad-in-which-john-kasichs-campaign-seems-to-compare-donald-trump-to-hitler/?postshare=2001478400764495&tid=ss_fb

Click on the video......it is as direct as can be.  And if you don't think fascism can't come to the US...I'll introduce you to Donald Trump.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

be cause

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #407 on: November 07, 2016, 03:42:54 PM »
Magnamentis's suggested rules could all be replaced by the one our good lord left us .. love one another .. so easy yet so hard :)

 Considering their current treatment under Obama, who should the USA's natives vote for ?
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 03:58:20 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #408 on: November 07, 2016, 03:55:54 PM »
Quote
- implement laws that treat political lies as what they are; "fraud"

I agree with most of what you suggest.  My favorite....is the one you suggested above.

We have hundreds of thousands of people in prison for "MINOR SHIT".  Meanwhile....we have people walking the streets that have suggested:

1)  tobacco products are fine......which caused MILLIONS OF DEATHS
2)  global warming is a hoax......which will cost us TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS for waiting to fix it
3)  lead paint is fine....only to find out later it isn't
4)  packaging and selling mortgages that were worthless....costing billions of dollars

As a CIVIILIZED SOCIETY we can't ALLOW people to lie.  VERY SIMPLE.  TELL THE F#####G truth about matters of PUBLIC POLICY or you will be prosecuted.

But think about this:  We also have a FAKE NEWS CHANNEL THAT LIES ON A DAILY BASIS.  In fact....THEY HAVE TRIED TO THROW THE CURRENT ELECTION.

FOX News is not much better than listening to Russian television.  It's a disgrace to democracy.

If we manage to get through this election.......it won't be because of FOX News did any JOURNALISM.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #409 on: November 07, 2016, 04:59:19 PM »
It's always enlightening to see people LIE or IGNORE FACTS on video.  Here we have "crooked Kellyanne Conway":


https://www.yahoo.com/news/kellyanne-conway-clashes-with-cnn-after-trump-campaign-promotes-false-report-of-assassination-attempt-163224102.html


FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #410 on: November 07, 2016, 04:59:46 PM »
In reference to my reply #391, I'm not surprised at all at the response. Perhaps the scenario I laid out will turnout to be complete B.S., but at least in my mind it is one of the most likely scenarios to occur should Trump win the election, because a Trump victory will turn out to be a big loss for the Republicans going forward.

Now that Clinton has been cleared once again by the FBI, the likelihood of a Trump win has been reduced. I believe his poll numbers have peaked and will probably fall a bit. Trump isn't happy with the FBI's latest finding on Clinton. In light of that, I thought this short article from the Huffington Post was helpful:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/edward-snowden-hillary-clinton-emails_us_581fe27de4b0aac62485334d

"Edward Snowden shows just how fast the FBI could read Hillary Clinton's e-mails".

If Clinton does win, I sincerely hope my prediction is wrong and that her Presidency is highly successful.

TerryM

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #411 on: November 07, 2016, 05:18:30 PM »
For the almost 30% in this poll who didn't opt for Clinton a short history lesson might be in order.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/05/the-big-con-what-is-really-at-stake-on-election-day


From The Guardian it's an intriguing look back. Very well written & something every voter should read before punching his chad.  ;)


Terry

magnamentis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #412 on: November 07, 2016, 05:26:01 PM »
But think about this:  We also have a FAKE NEWS CHANNEL THAT LIES ON A DAILY BASIS.  In fact....THEY HAVE TRIED TO THROW THE CURRENT ELECTION.

FOX News is not much better than listening to Russian television.  It's a disgrace to democracy.

If we manage to get through this election.......it won't be because of FOX News did any JOURNALISM.

sorry about that one, i definitely forgot about he "holy cow" the media who are the 4th and a very subtle power beside, justice, legislative and exectutive in our systems. thing is to find the way between censorship which is wrong of course and influencing through lies and half truth which is more subtle but still totally wrong.

the very root of things is that people compete permanently and are raised like that instead of colaborating. as long as competition is part of the "good tone" and not seen as what it is, an animalic instinct and not worthy for entities that consider themselves "human" or "superior" which in itself might be a key error. if you're interested you can have a look at some excerpts for my several books i'm working at under http://magnamentis.com they are work in progress and probably will be published only after my demise and for free. thing is that money and fame have too bad an influence as do all the negative feedback and i don't think i need that during my old days haha....

but in short, you're right, media are key nowadays, directly after banks and insurance companies and more and more big information enterprises like google which as well has taken a doubtful path recently. "don't be evil" as google's motto can obviously not withstand monetary temptations in the long run as it seems.

i love this kind of conversation by the way but for a healthy spirit it's important to accept the limitations that only time will help to overcome, this acceptance is needed to stay content and keep
a peaceful mind (way of thinking ) i often say that a few guys, including myself are lucky that i have no say on the matter if you know what i mean LOL
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 05:57:12 PM by magnamentis »

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #413 on: November 07, 2016, 05:40:04 PM »
I'll take these one at a time:

Quote
OTOH, if Trump gets elected President this year, we are likely to see a Democrat controlled House and Senate in 2018.

Sorry....that is not even CLOSE to what will happen.  You apparently have NOT looked at who is up for re-election in 2018 on the Senate side. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018#/media/File:2018_Senate_election_map.svg

In 2018....there are 23 senate seats that are NOW DEMOCRAT up for election + 2 left leaning INDEPENDENTS....and only 8 that are now Republican. THAT is a HUGE advantage for the Republicans. So even if the Republicans don't manage to take the senate this year (even though the risk is 50/50 right now).....the Republicans are almost ASSURED of taking back the senate in 2020....perhaps by a large margin.

So....if Trump were to win this year....AND....the Republicans were to keep the Senate (which right now...is a 50/50 bet).....the Republicans HAVE THE WHITE HOUSE.....THE SENATE....AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.  What could possibly go wrong ;)

And now....think about this:  The Supreme Court....AT LEAST 2 SEATS AND POSSIBLY 3 SEATS WILL BE PICKED IN THE NEXT 4 YEARS.  Any you....Budmantis.....are OK with that happening?  Really?  What do you think that will do over the next 20 - 30 years NO MATTER WHO IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE?

Quote
We are also likely to see a Democrat get elected President in 2020, and hopefully that individual will have a lot fewer skeletons in the closet. There are no guarantees of course, but given the scenario I've just laid out, this country will be in the best possible position to enact climate change and other legislation after the 2020 election

Are you sure you don't live in Vegas?

Anyone who is SERIOUS about dealing with global warming....is voting for Hillary Clinton.  Anyone who is NOT....will vote for someone else. It really is that simple WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE FACTS.

I don't mean to sound so harsh.....but EITHER you have not looked at the facts:
1)  senate seats up for re-election in 2018
2)  the loss of the Supreme Court to RIGHT LEANING FOLKS LIKE FOSSIL FUEL COMPAIES

Or you are willing to roll the dice.....
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 06:23:13 PM by Buddy »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #414 on: November 07, 2016, 08:11:25 PM »
And some more interesting news from "camp Trump".   Who would be in his cabinet?

1.  Newt Gingrich:  The Congressman from Georgia that THE REPUBLICANS kicked out of the House Speaker position in the 1990's.  A man of "strong ethics" (lol)....and ONLY cheated on his first two wives (taking the divorce papers to his second wife while she was in the hospital suffering from cancer).  Yea.....that's my Newt.   Oh....he's married to wife 3 now.  No word on if he has cheated on her yet.

2.  Rudy Giuliani:  The guy that....a couple weeks ago was working with FOX News and a few rogue FBI agents to COME UP WITH A LIE THAT CLINTON WAS GOING TO BE INDICTED.    Which...of course....was a bald faced lie.  But that didn't stop Guiliani or FOX News.  THAT....is who Trump is going to have as his ATTORNEY GENERAL 

And no....I'm not kidding.  Like I have said before.....Trump will could not draw ETHICAL...QUALIFIED people to his cabinet.  When you are THAT...ethically challenged....nobody with any ethics is going to get near you.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #415 on: November 07, 2016, 08:18:12 PM »
Here is the most recent "Nate look"

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

A couple weeks ago I said it would be between 63% and 67% chance of Clinton winning....with popular vote between 4% - 5% difference in favor of Clinton.

Looks like I missed on both.  Chance of winning is slightly above my range...at 68%.  And the popular vote is below my range....currently Nate has it at 3.4% difference.

Also....Nate has her taking North Carolina (I have NC going to Trump...but CLOSE).

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

ritter

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #416 on: November 07, 2016, 10:41:43 PM »
And the popular vote is below my range....currently Nate has it at 3.4% difference.


This is entirely depressing to read.  :(

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #417 on: November 07, 2016, 10:50:45 PM »
Quote
This is entirely depressing to read.  :(

3.4% isn't THAT close.  Don't get me wrong...it IS close....but not as close as it sounds.

IF....as I suspect....the polling models are UNDERESTIMATING Hispaic voter turnout....especially in battleground states.....a 3.5% polling difference might actually be 4% or more, and will likely give Clinton over 300 electoral votes.

Just watch Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina tomorrow night.  We will get an EARLY LOOK at whether it will be an EARLY NIGHT......or a LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

Anything is POSSIBLE.....but we're dealing with PROBABILITY HERE.

Just relax....make sure YOU VOTE....and make sure ANYONE YOU KNOW WHO CAN VOTE....VOTES FOR HILLARY.

Concentrate on WHAT YOU CAN CONTROL....
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #418 on: November 08, 2016, 12:47:54 AM »
Are you sure you don't live in Vegas?


Well Buddy, I expected to hear some strong words from you in response to my recent posts. I've enjoyed our back and forth this fall during the campaign season and am not offended by your comments. Everytime I post something I know you disagree with, I expect your avatar (the duck), to jump even higher! (lol).

I am aware of the long odds the Democrats face in 2018 with the Senate races. If Clinton is elected President in 2016, the Senate will most certainly remain in control of the Republicans after the mid-term elections in 2018. With a Trump presidency in 2016, there is a better chance the Democrats will gain control of the Senate in 2018 despite the long odds because I believe a Trump presidency will be a train wreck. This will also result in gains sufficient in the House for the Democrats to gain a majority.

That is my opinion and I'm going to stick with it. That being said, I would never live in Vegas because when it comes to betting, I'm not lucky. I don't even go to the Hard Rock Casino in Tampa anymore. (Mostly because they don't serve free drinks!).

Taking a look at how the stock market did today after the FBI cleared Clinton for a second time, I'm convinced of one thing; a vote for Hillary is likely to be a plus for my stock portfolio so yes, I will vote for Hillary, but I don't expect much to happen in the next four years. She is a deeply flawed candidate who will spend most of her time dealing with inquiries and possibly scandals in her first and likely only term in office.

http://money.cnn.com/data/hotstocks/?iid=H_MKT_QL

« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 01:05:48 AM by budmantis »

magnamentis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #419 on: November 08, 2016, 01:01:34 AM »
Quote
This is entirely depressing to read.  :(

3.4% isn't THAT close.  Don't get me wrong...it IS close....but not as close as it sounds.

IF....as I suspect....the polling models are UNDERESTIMATING Hispaic voter turnout....especially in battleground states.....a 3.5% polling difference might actually be 4% or more, and will likely give Clinton over 300 electoral votes.

Just watch Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina tomorrow night.  We will get an EARLY LOOK at whether it will be an EARLY NIGHT......or a LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

Anything is POSSIBLE.....but we're dealing with PROBABILITY HERE.

Just relax....make sure YOU VOTE....and make sure ANYONE YOU KNOW WHO CAN VOTE....VOTES FOR HILLARY.

Concentrate on WHAT YOU CAN CONTROL....

you're right, no reason to worry IMO, i predict (leaning out of the window a bit) a close to 10% difference or higher in numbers while your system of states and electoral votes can distort things a bit so my 10% +/- something refer to the total number of votes US-Wide

Sigmetnow

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #420 on: November 08, 2016, 01:14:47 AM »
Satire!  Here's a quick laugh (groan?) to break the tension.  ;D

IN FINAL APPEAL TO VOTERS, CLINTON CHANGES SLOGAN TO “WON’T BLOW UP PLANET”
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/in-final-appeal-to-voters-clinton-changes-slogan-to-wont-blow-up-planet
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #421 on: November 08, 2016, 02:38:15 AM »

you're right, no reason to worry IMO, i predict (leaning out of the window a bit) a close to 10% difference or higher in numbers while your system of states and electoral votes can distort things a bit so my 10% +/- something refer to the total number of votes US-Wide
[/quote]

Hope you're right Magnamentis, the larger the majority, the larger the mandate. I think it will be a bit closer though.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #422 on: November 08, 2016, 02:39:18 AM »
Quote
Satire!  Here's a quick laugh (groan?) to break the tension.  ;D

LMAO so hard I was crying....especially the part about kellyanne Conway.... ;D

Good one...
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #423 on: November 08, 2016, 02:39:26 AM »
Satire!  Here's a quick laugh (groan?) to break the tension.  ;D

IN FINAL APPEAL TO VOTERS, CLINTON CHANGES SLOGAN TO “WON’T BLOW UP PLANET”
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/in-final-appeal-to-voters-clinton-changes-slogan-to-wont-blow-up-planet

Thanks for the humor Sigmetnow!

Pmt111500

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #424 on: November 08, 2016, 03:33:31 AM »
", the demographic, who have historically been opposed to...", :-). Pretty funny yes.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #425 on: November 08, 2016, 05:26:43 AM »
I was looking at other recent Borowitz articles. This one is even funnier.

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/queen-offers-to-restore-british-rule-over-united-states

"Long live the Queen!"

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #426 on: November 08, 2016, 11:23:20 AM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37893294

"U.S. election: Black Republicans seek converts in Trump's 'war zone'."

Thought this article by Jessica Lussenhop would add some contrast to our discussion.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #427 on: November 08, 2016, 03:43:09 PM »
Quote
so my 10% +/- something refer to the total number of votes US-Wide

This will NOT be a 10% spread election.  The POPULAR VOTE will LIKELY be between 1.5% for Clinton....and 5% for Clinton.  Now....it obviously COULD be outside of that....but that is NOT LIKELY.

The ELECTORAL VOTES is something completely different.  If Clinton wins the popular vote by 4%.....she is likely to have 300 or more electoral votes to Trumps 235ish.

But the popular vote will NOT be a 10% difference.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #428 on: November 08, 2016, 04:57:28 PM »
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/john-weaver-axe-files/index.html

"GOP strategist: Clinton will win, but Congress wont work with her."

Excerpt: I believe she's going to win in an electoral landslide and be the most unpopular president in electoral history, which is quite the paradox, John Weaver told David Axelrod on the "Axe Files" podcast.

magnamentis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #429 on: November 08, 2016, 05:38:07 PM »
Quote
so my 10% +/- something refer to the total number of votes US-Wide

This will NOT be a 10% spread election.  The POPULAR VOTE will LIKELY be between 1.5% for Clinton....and 5% for Clinton.  Now....it obviously COULD be outside of that....but that is NOT LIKELY.

The ELECTORAL VOTES is something completely different.  If Clinton wins the popular vote by 4%.....she is likely to have 300 or more electoral votes to Trumps 235ish.

But the popular vote will NOT be a 10% difference.

ok, to agree on terms and clarify what i meant:

my prediction is that if for example 250'000'000 americans vote for president, that clinton will win with a gap of 10% against trump, that would "for example" be: 112'500'000 votes for trump nation wide and 137'500'000 for clinton, gap 25'000'000 = 10% of 250'000'000.

this was just meant to define the 10% because there are other ways to calculate percentages and yes, i'm aware of the fact that there are others on the list. should not be that a detailed thing, it's a rough guess as opposed to a tight race, that's all, let's see, soon we'll all know

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #430 on: November 08, 2016, 08:51:44 PM »
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-melania-voting-photo_us_58220b22e4b0e80b02ccfcee

"Interpret this photo of Donald and Melania Trump voting however you will, but it sure is funny."

I think he's checking to make sure she votes for him.

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #431 on: November 08, 2016, 09:51:39 PM »
Quote
my prediction is that if for example 250'000'000 americans vote for president, that clinton will win with a gap of 10% against trump, that would "for example" be: 112'500'000 votes for trump nation wide and 137'500'000 for clinton, gap 25'000'000 = 10% of 250'000'000.

In your example....it would be 55% to 45%.  And what I am saying...is that it will likely be a "gap" of 2% - 5% (at most...half of your 10% gap).

I would LOVE to be wrong.  Looks like the black voter turnout will be much lower this time....and the Hispanic turnout much higher this time.

Ten percent would be a blowout....and the models would have DEFINITELY "missed something big" (like voter mix...etc).  It could happen....it just isn't LIKELY to happen.

Nate has the gap as 3.5%......and the range from 0% (tie) to 7% basically.

We'll see.......

We will know how race is going early:  Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania....I think all those polls are closed by 8 pm EST.

Michigan will be interesting to watch for all the "chatter" about it.  Also Minnesota.

As Yogi Berra said....."it anit over till it's over."



FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

magnamentis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #432 on: November 09, 2016, 02:36:57 AM »
Quote
my prediction is that if for example 250'000'000 americans vote for president, that clinton will win with a gap of 10% against trump, that would "for example" be: 112'500'000 votes for trump nation wide and 137'500'000 for clinton, gap 25'000'000 = 10% of 250'000'000.

In your example....it would be 55% to 45%.  And what I am saying...is that it will likely be a "gap" of 2% - 5% (at most...half of your 10% gap).

I would LOVE to be wrong.  Looks like the black voter turnout will be much lower this time....and the Hispanic turnout much higher this time.

Ten percent would be a blowout....and the models would have DEFINITELY "missed something big" (like voter mix...etc).  It could happen....it just isn't LIKELY to happen.

Nate has the gap as 3.5%......and the range from 0% (tie) to 7% basically.

We'll see.......

We will know how race is going early:  Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania....I think all those polls are closed by 8 pm EST.

Michigan will be interesting to watch for all the "chatter" about it.  Also Minnesota.

As Yogi Berra said....."it anit over till it's over."

yeah i got that and 45 - 55 is what i mean, the gap is 10 :-) 45+10=55 :-)

however i tend to be an optimist hence you could be spot on. i as well did never expect that GWB was elected the second time and that the swiss people freely chose their own speed limits (low ones) and since then the entire population has paid already for that mistake. this second example is subjective of course while i'm still quite often caught by surprise how many people can be so s...d, even though it's a know fact. right now each red point is one too much IMO and helps to keep me awake LOL

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #433 on: November 09, 2016, 04:30:01 AM »
Looks like it will be a lot closer Buddy and Magnamentis. As of 10:30PM EST, Trump leads in the popular vote as well as the electoral vote. Once California is factored in, Clinton will likely take the lead in the popular vote, but Trump has a very real possibility of winning.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #434 on: November 09, 2016, 04:38:59 AM »
Calling it Early.

Nate wiffed badly.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #435 on: November 09, 2016, 05:31:50 AM »
Calling it Early.

Nate wiffed badly.

Sure looks that way. Wonder what Buddy will have to say about that?! I expect his avatar (the duck) will be jumping to new heights!

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #436 on: November 09, 2016, 05:54:03 AM »
Clinton is struggling in Wisconsin and Michigan.  If she loses either of those....then she loses.  If she is able to somehow win those.....then she will win as long as she takes Nevada.  Certainly not looking good for her now.   :'(

And......this will unfortunately not do great things for global warming.  Understatement of the century.

If Trump wins.....the winner will be comedians.  They will have a field day.  And fossil fuel companies.

The real effect.....other than the stock market tanking......will be unrest I am afraid.   As Stevie Wonder said......."having Trump as president...is like me driving".  And Stevie Wonder is blind....

There will be unrest by scientists for sure.... Also unrest internationally.....as there is little respect for Trump. 

As I always say.....it ain't over till it's over...


FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #437 on: November 09, 2016, 05:59:06 AM »
The one vote we know for sure.....is the stock market.  They are voting against Trump.   Futures down about 5% right now......and international markets are tanking as well.  Mr. Market does not like this news at all.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

magnamentis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #438 on: November 09, 2016, 06:01:06 AM »
Clinton is struggling in Wisconsin and Michigan.  If she loses either of those....then she loses.  If she is able to somehow win those.....then she will win as long as she takes Nevada.  Certainly not looking good for her now.   :'(

And......this will unfortunately not do great things for global warming.  Understatement of the century.

If Trump wins.....the winner will be comedians.  They will have a field day.  And fossil fuel companies.

The real effect.....other than the stock market tanking......will be unrest I am afraid.   As Stevie Wonder said......."having Trump as president...is like me driving".  And Stevie Wonder is blind....

There will be unrest by scientists for sure.... Also unrest internationally.....as there is little respect for Trump. 

As I always say.....it ain't over till it's over...

hard to believe what's going on here, that should be moved to the "human stupidity" thread :-(

as it seems the wish was the father of my thoughts. another big step down the ladder for that country.

my sincere condolences
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 06:46:35 AM by magnamentis »

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #439 on: November 09, 2016, 06:03:24 AM »
The one good thing that will happen if Trump wins.....is that we will all get to hear the reason why he won't show his tax returns.  Because he will NEVER show them....
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Buddy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #440 on: November 09, 2016, 06:22:25 AM »
Japanese market down 6%......DOW futures down 800 points.  Congratulations Donald.  ;D

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #441 on: November 09, 2016, 06:25:42 AM »
You can kiss the Paris accord goodbye. Rs in the White house, Senate and large majority (still) in the House. No real chance to take it back for 4 years. Lots of time to do damage.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #442 on: November 09, 2016, 06:26:08 AM »
Luckily we have snow, I'll go for a dip. Nude.


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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #443 on: November 09, 2016, 06:26:38 AM »
Jesus, this is a full-on rout. She might lose MI, WI AND PA at this point.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #444 on: November 09, 2016, 06:43:00 AM »
oops !
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

magnamentis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #445 on: November 09, 2016, 06:51:32 AM »
i declare my self the worst poll analyzer ever, i obviously lack the necessary imagination for certain things to be possible. not the first time really. :-)

but then it's probably even bias, looking and talking around a bit would have given sufficient hints.


Sleepy

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #446 on: November 09, 2016, 07:02:03 AM »
Whatever the final outcome will be, this is a revolution agianst science, evolution and human progress. It also confirms the populistic trends all over this planet and will make it easier for the other populistic parties on this planet. It's a fucking disaster.

budmantis

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #447 on: November 09, 2016, 07:03:12 AM »
i declare my self the worst poll analyzer ever, i obviously lack the necessary imagination for certain things to be possible. not the first time really. :-)

but then it's probably even bias, looking and talking around a bit would have given sufficient hints.

Don't feel too bad, imagine how Nate Silver feels!

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #448 on: November 09, 2016, 07:19:08 AM »
Nate Silver unlike most at least kept entertaining the possibility of a Donald victory, his model was the most bullish on it by far.

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Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« Reply #449 on: November 09, 2016, 07:28:00 AM »
Sleepy, that sounds like a good idea. Those 'murican f*******s may rot in hell they've created. Should we start a forum only for peoples who accept science?
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.