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magnamentis

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #300 on: December 14, 2018, 11:28:23 PM »
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.
Everybody chill. I didn’t even insult her.

But If you consider “alarmist” an insult, and/or you are in the mood of banning someone, yeah go ahead, use the power :-)

a scientist who acts like al gore is a clown and considering who you were talking about it is an insult, further the way of posting was insulting in tone and words and yes, alarmist in the way you and other mean it, to discredit someone, put him/her into a specific drawer with little credibility, is indeed insulting and not only that, it's one of the worst insult of all insults to destroy or damage someone's credibility without other reason than not liking what a person has to say, at least as long as it's not obvious that a statement is either wrong or very improbable.

but even then we could ask for opinions and explanations before making unnecessary bold statements that have no other purposes than to either vent anger or self-profiling. the first, just to say, would be not insulting to say and i did not decide which of the two applies ;) ;)
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Sterks

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #301 on: December 15, 2018, 01:36:02 PM »
All right  :-X

Steven

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #302 on: January 19, 2019, 10:03:33 PM »
Bad news about NASA's Operation IceBridge:

Shutdown imperils NASA’s decadelong ice-measuring campaign

Quote
The spreading effects of the partial U.S. government shutdown have reached Earth’s melting poles. IceBridge, a decadelong NASA aerial campaign meant to secure a seamless record of ice loss, has had to sacrifice at least half of what was supposed to be its final spring deployment, its scientists say. The shortened mission threatens a crucial plan to collect overlapping data with a new ice-monitoring satellite called the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)-2.

PS. This was also posted by Kassy in the ICESat-2 thread.

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #303 on: January 24, 2019, 04:48:57 PM »
The UK mainstream media is playing catch-up with this forum....

1. We have discussed this a lot - especially on the Northern Sea Route thread. Where military development goes, pollution and economic development will surely follow.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/military-buildup-in-arctic-as-melting-ice-reopens-northern-borders
Military buildup in Arctic as melting ice reopens northern borders
As ice melts and shipping lanes open up, geopolitical tensions are growing and old cold war bases are being reopened

Quote
The climate crisis is intensifying a new military buildup in the Arctic, diplomats and analysts said this week, as regional powers attempt to secure northern borders that were until recently reinforced by a continental-sized division of ice.

That so-called unpaid sentry is now literally melting away, opening up shipping lanes and geo-security challenges, said delegates at the Arctic Frontiers conference, the polar circle’s biggest talking shop, who debated a series of recent escalations.

Russia is reopening and strengthening cold war bases on the Kola peninsula in the far north-west of the country. Norway is beefing up its military presence in the high Arctic.

Last October, Nato staged Trident Juncture with 40,000 troops, its biggest military exercise in Norway in more than a decade. A month earlier Britain announced a new “Defence Arctic Strategy” and promised a 10-year deployment of 800 commandos to Norway and four RAF Typhoons to patrol Icelandic skies. The US is also sending hundreds more marines to the region on long-term rotations and has threatened to send naval vessels through Arctic shipping lanes for the first time.

2. Atlantification - also a major theme in this forum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46976040
'Tipping point' risk for Arctic hotspot
A rapid climate shift under way in the Barents Sea could spread to other Arctic regions, scientists warn.

Quote
The Barents Sea is said to be at a tipping point, changing from an Arctic climate to an Atlantic climate as the water gets warmer.

A conference in Norway heard that the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea – both further to the east - are likely to become the new Arctic frontier.

The scientists warn that it will affect ecosystems.
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mabarnes

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #304 on: January 24, 2019, 06:07:54 PM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

What's up with this SST hotspot off Svalbard (and its little brother to the east)...?  18.5 C ... I wouldn't even need a wetsuit...!

I took this shot off null school out of curiosity over 3 weeks ago, and it's still there.  Is this normal?  An upwelling?  Volcanic?  Super curious.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2019, 12:55:40 AM by mabarnes »

Neven

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #305 on: January 25, 2019, 12:23:20 PM »
It's been discussed several times in the melting/freezing season threads, but I've forgotten what the potential explanations are.
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Stephan

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #306 on: January 25, 2019, 05:33:36 PM »
I remember this hot spot being there for at least two years(and the second SE of Svalbard which is not so warm as well). I doubt whether this is real. I think there should be a fact check by measurements.
The two hot spots are also visible and persistent at http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_sst_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png

b_lumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #307 on: January 25, 2019, 06:01:50 PM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

Hey Mabarnes,

noob here myself. Welcome to the forum.

I don't know if it helps, but i found the following link on the topic:

Quote
“The halocline has grown much weaker in recent years,” Polyakov says, “allowing the Atlantic water heat to penetrate upward and reach the bottom of sea ice.” The phenomenon, which began near Svalbard in the late 1990s, is now accelerating and spreading east into Arctic waters above Siberia.
Link >> https://e360.yale.edu/features/alien-waters-neighboring-seas-are-flowing-into-a-warming-arctic-ocean

My pet theory (and total speculation) is that due to the high amount of melting water the AMOC is changing currents slightly. Or, better to say, expands them. The persistent negative SSTA in the south of Greenland is a hint. The cold water sinks down making its way towards equator when a surface current delivers hot water via golf stream to the north (you can also see a strong positive SSTA where the Gulf Stream is). Since there is more meltwater now, the hot water could possibly go up higher latitudes than before.

uniquorn

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #308 on: January 25, 2019, 07:04:20 PM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

What's up with this SST hotspot off Svalbard (and its little brother to the east)...?  18.5 C ... I wouldn't even need a wetsuit...!

I took this shot off null school out of curiosity over 3 weeks ago, and it's still there.  Is this normal?  An upwelling?  Volcanic?  Super curious.
It's warm, but probably not that warm. Thread about it here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg134595.html#msg134595

mabarnes

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #309 on: January 26, 2019, 01:32:55 AM »
Thanks Uniquorn...!

So I missed it ... but that spot was around back in 2017 at least.  What's puzzling is why Argo floats would say 8 C in August, but nullschool says 18.5 C (on my screenshot).  What gives?

I traced down the source for nullschool ... dang spots are on there (in yellow).  Weird!

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_newdisp_sst_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png

Rod

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #310 on: January 26, 2019, 05:22:19 AM »


So I missed it ... but that spot was around back in 2017 at least.  What's puzzling is why Argo floats would say 8 C in August, but nullschool says 18.5 C (on my screenshot).  What gives?


The Argo floats provide real data (assuming they are working).  Nullschool presents modeled data.  Models are certainly helpful, but always beware they might be wrong. 


binntho

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #311 on: February 10, 2019, 01:52:39 AM »
Polar bears invade Novaya Zemlya according to the BBC. The town is on the west coast of the island, but is this year in some way different from previous years when it comes to ice coverage? Is the late freezing of southern Kara perhaps to blame?

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #312 on: February 13, 2019, 09:11:33 PM »
Fossil Fuels, Not Wildfires, Biggest Source of Arctic Black Carbon, Study Finds

Five years of testing at sites across the Arctic tracked seasonal fluctuations and sources of a climate pollutant that contributes to global warming and ice melt.

...

Some people think it's biofuels and wildfires, but our main takeaway is that fossil fuels are the main source of black carbon in the Arctic," said Patrik Winiger of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the lead author of a study published today in the journal Science Advances.

His team found that about 70 percent of the black carbon in the Arctic currently comes from fossil fuel burning in Northern countries. They tracked changes in black carbon levels in the atmosphere through the seasons over five years and used chemical analyses to determine the pollution's origins.

During winters, they found that emissions from fossil fuel burning made up the majority of black carbon accumulations.

During the summer, when overall black carbon concentrations are lower, emissions from wildfires and agricultural burning were bigger sources.

for details see:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13022019/arctic-warming-greenland-black-carbon-source-fossil-fuels-wildfires-studyhttps://insideclimatenews.org/news/13022019/arctic-warming-greenland-black-carbon-source-fossil-fuels-wildfires-study

Ravenken

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #313 on: February 20, 2019, 06:57:56 AM »
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

Yeah, I've seen that too but I have a different theory then other presented. Check out the continental shelf in relation to this 'thermal' exchange. Also, notice that there is a current of hot water running north along the european coastline for some time even when we get that cool area south of Greenland. Heat is still making its way north and I think that it HAS heated the methane clathrates in the continental shelf area. If you go over to NOAA MetOp-1 and look near the surface (around 930mb) you will see the methane signature.
Methane hydrates are a temp/pressure. When you have heavy release you will change the density of the water above you (i.e. pressure).
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vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #314 on: March 07, 2019, 06:05:15 PM »
Report to Congress on Changes in the Arctic
https://news.usni.org/2019/03/06/report-congress-changes-arctic-5

March 4, 2019 Congressional Research Service report

... Record low extents of Arctic sea ice over the past decade have focused scientific and policy attention on links to global climate change and projected ice-free seasons in the Arctic within decades. These changes have potential consequences for weather in the United States, access to mineral and biological resources in the Arctic, the economies and cultures of peoples in the region, and national security.

... Changes to the Arctic brought about by warming temperatures will likely allow more exploration for oil, gas, and minerals. Warming that causes permafrost to melt could pose challenges to onshore exploration activities. Increased oil and gas exploration and tourism (cruise ships) in the Arctic increase the risk of pollution in the region. Cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters will be more difficult than in other areas, primarily because effective strategies for cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters have yet to be developed.

Changes in the Arctic could affect threatened and endangered species, and could result in migration of fish stocks to new waters.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Ktb

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #315 on: March 15, 2019, 08:49:06 PM »
Quote
Unless humanity makes very rapid and deep pollution cuts, Arctic winter temperatures will rise 5.4° to 9.0°F (3° to 5°C) by 2050 — and will reach an astounding 9° to 16°F (5° to 8.8°C) by 2080 — according to a report by the U.N. Environment Program released Wednesday.

https://thinkprogress.org/devastating-arctic-warming-locked-in-warns-un-48e55348514b/

Cool, cool, cool.
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Stephan

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #316 on: March 16, 2019, 08:27:00 PM »
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube . The channel's name is "Just have a Think". The author will put more videos like this online over the next weeks. They are based on the latest Arctic Report Card subjects.

Juan C. García

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #317 on: March 17, 2019, 04:17:14 AM »
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube

Excellent video Stephan!

Makes me wonder if, apart from the "like" button, we could have a "keep" button, in which we can mark the posts that we really like and we want to have a way to keep them mark for future reference.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #318 on: March 27, 2019, 02:51:04 AM »
Maybe this UN document is already in another topic. It is new for me!  ;)
Quote
Temperature rise is ‘locked-in’ for the coming decades in the Arctic

Nairobi, 13 March 2019 – Even if the world were to cut emissions in line with the existing Paris Agreement commitments, winter temperatures over the Arctic Ocean would rise 3-5°C by mid-century, finds a new report by UN Environment.
Meanwhile, rapidly thawing permafrost could even accelerate climate change further and derail efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting the rise in global temperature to 2°C, warns Global Linkages - A graphic look at the changing Arctic.
https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/temperature-rise-locked-coming-decades-arctic

Quote
Based on satellite monitoring from 1979 to the present, Arctic sea ice area has declined by around 40 per cent (Parkinson and DiGirolamo, 2016). There is a clear link between CO2 emissions and the extent of summer sea ice. Climate models predict that at the current rate of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, the Arctic will be ice-free in summer by as early as the 2030s (AMAP, 2017a), although there is considerable uncertainty between model estimates (Jahn et al., 2016).                                                                                   [page 14]

Document: "Global Linkages - A graphic look at the changing Arctic"
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27687/Arctic_Graphics.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

« Last Edit: March 27, 2019, 03:04:09 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tealight

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #319 on: March 28, 2019, 02:17:41 PM »
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays

b_lumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #320 on: March 28, 2019, 03:36:38 PM »

mabarnes

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #321 on: March 28, 2019, 06:56:47 PM »
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays

GREAT tool there, Tealight. 

I noticed something, maybe interesting, I dunno ... but I'm an economist, lurking here as a concerned citizen.  I'm used to doing stochastic analysis, versed in Chaos, etc - it's remarkable how much the same tools apply to dynamic systems in "Econ" and those in the natural world.

Anyway, one thing I always like to do is LOOK at data graphically.  Your tool reveals a (maybe?) interesting phenomenon and I'd like to ask - am I seeing things?  Or does this mean something?

What I'm seeing:  If you look at the Antarctic anomaly visualization, start the slider at 1979 and advance it year by year (my right arrow worked for me) at a steady pace.  I can't help seeing some kind of pattern, a rotation in the areas of more or less anomaly, that seems to persist over the entire data set.

Is this my imagination, or is there some serially correlated melt/freeze pattern that "rotates" around the continent...?  I have no idea ... just thought I'd share, since I've found viewing complex data can sometimes lead one to pick up patterns that might go missed.  Once upon a time I did some work in this area (the power of visual pattern recognition, with an eye to AI simulation). 

Curious!  Thanks.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2019, 07:02:41 PM by mabarnes »

Tealight

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #322 on: March 29, 2019, 01:10:00 AM »
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays

This site is just awesome! Very well done Tealight.

Thanks, there is still some more content in the works. Currently I'm working on a new version of my Albedo-Warming Potential model. My computation speed has improved significantly due to hardware and coding improvements.

The very first AWP version in 2016 would have needed over 1.5h for the entire 40 year dataset. With some coding improvement it came down to 30min last year and now with mutiprocessing (using all CPU cores) I'm down to 3min 52s!

edit: actually in 2016 with my old CPU it would have been more like 3h. 1.5h is on my new CPU without coding improvements.


What I'm seeing:  If you look at the Antarctic anomaly visualization, start the slider at 1979 and advance it year by year (my right arrow worked for me) at a steady pace.  I can't help seeing some kind of pattern, a rotation in the areas of more or less anomaly, that seems to persist over the entire data set.

Is this my imagination, or is there some serially correlated melt/freeze pattern that "rotates" around the continent...?  I have no idea ... just thought I'd share, since I've found viewing complex data can sometimes lead one to pick up patterns that might go missed.  Once upon a time I did some work in this area (the power of visual pattern recognition, with an eye to AI simulation). 

Curious!  Thanks.

Hmm, I don't a consistent pattern over the entire dataset but some years clearly show a rotation of the anomaly areas like 1987-1991 or 2007-2009.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2019, 01:38:36 AM by Tealight »

mabarnes

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #323 on: March 29, 2019, 01:49:23 AM »
What I'm seeing:  If you look at the Antarctic anomaly visualization, start the slider at 1979 and advance it year by year (my right arrow worked for me) at a steady pace.  I can't help seeing some kind of pattern, a rotation in the areas of more or less anomaly, that seems to persist over the entire data set.

Is this my imagination, or is there some serially correlated melt/freeze pattern that "rotates" around the continent...?  I have no idea ... just thought I'd share, since I've found viewing complex data can sometimes lead one to pick up patterns that might go missed.  Once upon a time I did some work in this area (the power of visual pattern recognition, with an eye to AI simulation). 

Curious!  Thanks.

Hmm, I don't a consistent pattern over the entire dataset but some years clearly show a rotation of the anomaly areas like 1987-1991 or 2007-2009.
[/quote]

Well first thanks for looking at it.  I was mostly wondering if there was some known phenomenon hence I asked.  I have no idea what's under the hood of the models you guys use, but I appreciate your taking the time to look at it.  You never know, as the guys at Santa Fe used to say.   :D

oren

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #324 on: March 29, 2019, 10:49:09 AM »
Thank you Tealight, I have long looked at ice-free days as a measure of advancing loss of sea ice, but this visualization tool really takes it to the next level. Amazing.
One small thing - could you add 2018 to the slider?
Another comment/request - I believe the anomaly would be better when compared to the more stable baseline of the 1979-2000 average, rather than to the all-year average that already includes a part of the signal (loss of ice-covered days).
« Last Edit: March 29, 2019, 11:01:50 AM by oren »

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #325 on: April 02, 2019, 04:50:00 PM »
GRACE Follow-On - encouraging news from GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany

Also says NASA is dumping Ftp protocol for data and info access. Ftp files are dead easy to load and plonk into excel files. I wonder if yet again the interested amateur will be blocked from easy access to the data.


https://media.gfz-potsdam.de/gfz/sec12/pdf/GRACE_FO_SDS_newsletter_No2.pdf
Quote
GRAVITY RECOVERY AND CLIMATE EXPERIMENT Follow-On
1
GRACE Follow-On
Science Data System Newsletter
Report: Jan-Mar 2019 (No. 2)
Frank Webb, , Frank Flechtner, Felix Landerer, Michael Watkins, Christoph Dahle
1 Jet propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
2 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
3 Center for Space Research, University of Texas, Austin, TX

GRACE Follow-On Science Team & Highlights:
On Jan 28, 2019, the mission exited Phase-D (in-orbit-checkout) and entered Phase-E and the
beginning of science operations.

During the first 120 days of Phase-E, the project’s Science Data System (JPL, CSR, GFZ) team will conduct the validation and verification of the flight system operations and data processing approach to obtaining monthly gravity fields at a precision equivalent to that achieved with GRACE. Preliminary results from Phase-D and early Phase-E show that the system performance meets the Level 1 science and technology requirements of continuity with the 15-year record from GRACE.

Since launch (May-22, 2018), GRACE-FO has collected approximately 7 months of the science
data which will be part of the first Level-1A/B data scheduled for release on or before May 28,
2019.


The Level-2 gravity products and the observations from the LRI (Laser Ranging
Interferometer) technology demonstration will be released as planned on or before July-27,
2019. The Science Data System will release the data through the US PO.DAAC
(http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov) and the German ISDC (https://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/grace-fo-isdc)
data portals (see important updates for PO.DAAC data access below). Detailed documentation
of the Level-1 data processing and the adopted calibration strategies will be released
concurrently with the data.

Important Information for JPL PO.DAAC Users:
NASA is in the process of deprecating the use of the FTP protocol for data and information
access. PO.DAAC is pleased to offer PO.DAAC Drive as a robust FTP alternative for browsing and
retrieving data at PO.DAAC (https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/). It offers file navigation
and download through an interface served directly through your browser, and with a familiar
look and feel. It also allows users to access data via a command line so that interactions can be
easily scripted. The entire PO.DAAC archive can also be mounted to a local computer as a
virtual data store.
[/size]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #326 on: April 02, 2019, 08:47:32 PM »
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays

Please please, please, Tealight,

Are you going to set in motion the AWP graphs for 2019 data on https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/arctic-graphs

I love the maps but my old-fashioned and aged brain still works better with graphs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Steven

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #327 on: April 04, 2019, 08:58:31 PM »
The Operation IceBridge campaign for spring 2019 has started yesterday:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/nasa-begins-final-year-of-airborne-polar-ice-mission

Quote
During this 6-week campaign, IceBridge expects to complete about 24 flights in total, 11 of which are of the highest priority and are repeated every year to gauge annual changes in elevation of land and sea ice. This year, following the launch of ICESat-2, IceBridge will not only attempt a few new targets but many of the longest-running surveys have also been tweaked to underfly the satellite directly wherever possible.

Stephan

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #328 on: April 07, 2019, 05:22:20 PM »
Another interesting video from the Just Have A Think (JHAT) series:

Main topic is the Blue Ocean Event and its main consequences.
Worth listening to.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #329 on: April 08, 2019, 01:06:32 AM »
A screen print from that presentation:
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #330 on: April 08, 2019, 07:07:35 PM »
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017
Jason E Box, et al. in Environmental Research Letters (2019)

Phys.org review includes
Quote
"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic," according to lead author Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland in Copenhagen.

Who'd 'a thought!


Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #331 on: April 21, 2019, 01:48:28 AM »
Jason Box video explaining the new paper — titled Key Indicators of Arctic Climate Change: 1971–2017



World Economic Forum: The Arctic Has Entered an ‘Unprecedented State,’ Researchers Warn 
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/the-arctic-has-entered-an-unprecedented-state-researchers-warn/
« Last Edit: April 21, 2019, 01:55:26 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #332 on: April 29, 2019, 08:52:57 AM »
Behold America's New And Desperately Needed Heavy Icebreaker
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27647/behold-americas-new-and-desperately-needed-heavy-icebreaker

After years of back and forth, the U.S. government has finally issued a contract for the U.S. Coast Guard's first new heavy icebreaker in decades.

-------------------

One down, 65 to go ...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg190395.html#msg190395


h/t to gerantocrat
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 09:04:30 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #333 on: May 03, 2019, 05:08:58 AM »
Russian Arctic Researchers Evacuate Station as Polar Ice Cracks   
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-ecology/2019/05/arctic-campers-evacuate-polar-ice-cracks

Researchers from the Russian Hydrometeorological Institute, Roshydromet, had to flee from their Arctic station on Monday when the ice floe they were working on started to vanish from under their feet.

The scientists, who are studying pollution in Russia’s Arctic region, had been on the ice for more than a month when the emergency struck and they had to pack up their equipment and evacuate. The whole process took less than three hours, the camp organizers say.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #334 on: May 04, 2019, 10:34:16 AM »
Pour one out for old Arctic sea ice, because it’s basically a goner.

The severe toll of climate change at the top of the world is becoming clearer with each passing day. The latest sign comes courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which released its monthly sea ice update on Thursday. It shows that just 1.2 percent of ice in the Arctic Ocean is older than four years. Just 35 years ago, ice that was four years old or older made up nearly a third of all Arctic sea ice.

...

he loss of old sea ice is intimately tied to the disappearance of Arctic ice cover more broadly. As it melts out, it’s been replaced by younger, thinner ice that breaks up more easily when storms come through and melts more readily in the warming waters.

If this is the four-plus year old ice finally disappears, it will mark the first time on record the Arctic has been without it. There’s a chance it could come back as the winter refreeze happens depending on what happens to ice in the 3-4 year age range over the course of the summer. If some of this ice makes it through the summer, it would age another year thus replenishing four-plus year old ice.

..

Mark Serreze, NSIDC’s director, told Earther 5-10 years is a “more reasonable” timeframe for old ice finally melt away. Research shows the Arctic could see ice-free summers as early as the mid-2030s.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-last-of-the-arctics-old-sea-ice-is-on-the-verge-of-1834510753

uniquorn

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #335 on: May 04, 2019, 01:01:42 PM »
whoi's new glider
Quote
To understand just how thin the ice cover has become, WHOI scientists are developing a new autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) that will measure ice thickness from below the surface for thousands of miles at a time, all with the power draw of a cell phone.
https://www.whoi.edu/news-insights/content/navigating-the-changing-arctic/

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #336 on: May 07, 2019, 01:13:41 AM »
Navy Plans to be More Active in the Arctic
https://www.ktoo.org/2019/05/04/navy-plans-to-be-more-active-in-the-arctic/
https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-military/2019/05/06/northcom-arctic-now-americas-first-line-of-defense/

The U.S. Navy is increasing its presence in the Arctic, and Navy Secretary Richard Spencer said he’d like to send a ship through the Northwest Passage this summer.

“We’re still exploring to see if we could do a full passage. There’s still ice up there in some places,” Spencer told a U.S. Senate Appropriations subcommittee this week.


... Spencer said his wake-up call came at his first Arctic Council meeting, shortly after he became secretary of the Navy in 2017.

“It truly was an eye-opener for me,” Spencer said, “because sitting across the table was our Russian counterpart, talking about the 10,000 spetsnaz (special operations troops) he has up there, and the runways that he’s bringing back to life for ‘search and rescue.’”

The secretary made air quotes with his fingers, suggesting he doesn’t believe the build up is just for civilian purposes.

Russian forces are preparing to monitor airspace and secure the Northern Sea Route, which has the potential to turn the Arctic into a geostrategic thoroughfare on par with the Strait of Malacca — a major shipping channel connecting the Indian and Pacific oceans — and the Suez Canal, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

...

The U.S. Navy added Arctic exercises in 2018 and 2019 and is planning more. Spencer said the Navy and Marines are considering using Adak for an exercise in September.

“While we do not have a requirement for a port, yes, having a deepwater port such as Nome would be an advantage in the area.”

-----------------------------------

Admiral: The US Is ‘Operating Blind’ In the Arctic
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/05/admiral-us-operating-blind-arctic/156781/

U.S. defense officials announced at the Sea Air Space forum here on Monday that September Arctic sea ice is receding at a rate of roughly 13 percent per decade.  ... When it comes to predicting fluctuations in Arctic weather, the United States is “operating in the blind,” the U.S. Navy’s chief meteorologist said Monday.

The northern polar region is heating up about twice as fast as the rest of the globe, creating wildly variable weather and conditions that don’t happen anywhere else. As climate change makes the Arctic more accessible, the Navy’s ships, subs, and aircraft need better weather models to help them operate in the region’s chaotic seas, Rear Adm. John Oko told an audience at the Navy League’s Sea-Air-Space conference on Monday.

Okon said relatively small atmospheric events in the Arctic, sometimes called polar lows, can be as dangerous as hurricanes at lower latitudes. They “develop quick and move really fast,” he said.

Over the next three years, the Navy Research Lab, NOAA, and other partners will work to develop better predictions through the Earth System Prediction Capability, which Oko described as “a national effort to develop and deliver a fully-coupled air, ocean, ice and land models.”

... “In the Arctic, traditional sensors that provide the bulk of observations in the mid and low [latitude locations] just don’t work,” he said. “Things like geostationary satellites that provide the environmental observations, gliders, argo floats; they don’t provide the access or persistency required of the Arctic Ocean,” he said.

As a result, the Navy doesn’t have the hard data to make predictive models run as well as they are supposed to. “The current amount of observations that we have in the Arctic are similar to the amount of observations we had over the U.S. and in the Atlantic during WWI,” he said.


“One of the limiting factors for unmanned vehicles right now is battery technology. Right?” He says he’s looking for “low-cost persistent sensors that can operate…in the upper two or three hundred meters where the runoff from the Ice and the snowpack from the land are affecting that acoustic signature.”

...

Native Alaskans have an acute understanding of ice-flow, melting conditions and shifting weather patterns, Okon said.

“We need them. I need to tap into that local knowledge," said Navy Rear Adm. John Okon, commander of Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command.

“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”

Tapping into that knowledge will be critical because the region remains an operational enigma for much of the military, he added.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

wdmn

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #337 on: May 07, 2019, 02:30:18 AM »
Lurk, is there a specific survey/poll you're thinking of?

Human Habitat Index

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #338 on: May 07, 2019, 08:21:02 AM »
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”

IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.

They don't have a word for "nature"
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Pmt111500

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #339 on: May 07, 2019, 09:48:08 AM »
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”

IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.

They don't have a word for "nature"

Indigeneous knowledge is pretty rapidly becoming obsolete with these.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

El Cid

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #340 on: May 07, 2019, 11:42:44 AM »
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”

IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.

Ancient cultures destroyed their surroundings just like us, eg. Greeks/Romans destroyed the soil of their homeland, Sumerians detto, even neolithic farmers wreaked havoc on Nature. I strongly suggest reading Mongomery's: Dirt, the erosion of civilizations

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #341 on: May 07, 2019, 11:45:52 AM »
They may not have known better. We do!
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #342 on: May 07, 2019, 11:55:10 AM »
US Climate Change Refusal Sinks Arctic Declaration
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-climate-arctic-declaration.html

Members of the Arctic Council meeting in Finland's far north on Tuesday failed to issue their traditional final declaration due to a US refusal to mention climate change, delegates said

... Notably, in a speech in Rovaniemi on the eve of the council meeting, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not mention "climate change" once, even though, according to scientists, global warming is progressing twice as fast in the Arctic as in the rest of the world.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 12:04:04 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #343 on: May 07, 2019, 12:10:27 PM »
US Climate Change Refusal Sinks Arctic Declaration
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-climate-arctic-declaration.html

Members of the Arctic Council meeting in Finland's far north on Tuesday failed to issue their traditional final declaration due to a US refusal to mention climate change, delegates said

... Notably, in a speech in Rovaniemi on the eve of the council meeting, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not mention "climate change" once, even though, according to scientists, global warming is progressing twice as fast in the Arctic as in the rest of the world.

The good thing about it is that the usual fudge, i.e. finding a form of words that satisfy no-one, did not happen. It's about time the Trump Administration received "Nyet" from some Governments. Unfortunately, the current UK Government is more likely to say "Yes Sir, anything you say, Sir". However, the streets of London will be full of those who do not agree come June.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 01:24:06 PM by gerontocrat »
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seancoulter

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #344 on: May 08, 2019, 08:17:35 PM »
whoi's new glider
Quote
To understand just how thin the ice cover has become, WHOI scientists are developing a new autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) that will measure ice thickness from below the surface for thousands of miles at a time, all with the power draw of a cell phone.
https://www.whoi.edu/news-insights/content/navigating-the-changing-arctic/
Thanks for the article. It's really interesting, and the video there supports that article. I started to read a lot of literature about the Arctic and its current condition in recent time, so I'm trying to collect valuable materials.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #345 on: May 09, 2019, 09:49:50 AM »
Hello and welcome to the forum Sean.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #346 on: May 11, 2019, 05:44:09 PM »

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-04-08-russian-glacier-moving-much-faster

This is something that has always worried me, that some glaciers might just collapse when they reach a tipping point.

vox_mundi

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Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« Reply #347 on: May 14, 2019, 05:22:03 PM »
Underwater Arctic Forests Are Expanding With Rapid Warming
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-underwater-arctic-forests-rapid.html



Today, climate change is altering marine habitats such as kelp forests on a global scale. In western Australia, eastern Canada, southern Europe, northern California and eastern United States, kelps are disappearing due to warming temperatures. In other areas, kelps are being heavily over-grazed by sea urchins. Coastal conditions in the Arctic are changing dramatically and the region is warming faster than the rest of the world, but these changes could actually be good for kelp.

Kelp forests have been observed throughout the Arctic by Inuit, researchers and polar explorers. The Canadian Arctic alone represents 10 per cent of the world's coastlines, but we know little of the hidden kelp forests there.


Arctic Kelp

Kelps have adapted to the severe conditions. These cool water species have special strategies to survive freezing temperatures and long periods of darkness, and even grow under sea ice. In regions with cold, nutrient-rich water, they can attain some of the highest rates of primary production of any natural ecosystem on Earth.

Arctic kelp forests provide a key example of the diverse responses to climate change. Predictive models and experiments suggest that Arctic coasts are in line to become one of the most impacted environments in the world under changing climate. Yet the possible expansion of kelp forests should provide new habitats for fish and other marine organisms, and enhance a suite of valuable ecosystem services along Arctic coastlines.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late