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Author Topic: Albedo-Warming Potential  (Read 31562 times)

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #50 on: January 17, 2017, 06:31:39 PM »
So far I've only calculated anomaly values of the Albedo-Warming Potential (AWP). This is great when comparing individual years against each other, but it doesn't directly show us which regions contribute most to the overall warming. My first calculation with absolute values are for 2016. On the cumulative map you can see that the southern Beaufort Sea had higher AWP then the always open ocean around Svalbard. It's more southern latitude is more significant then ice free conditions during the first month of the astronomical summer.

The daily animations are great to get a feeling for solar intensity. Let me know how useful you find the absolute AWP.

Link for daily animations(loads 30MB, not great for mobile users)
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/project-description/absolute-values


Some details
Snow/Ice energy absorption is approximated to 20% of that of water
Cumulative values saturate at 1200 kwh/m2 (55N)
Daily values saturate at 8kwh/m2 (60N) on 21st June
The average values are calculated over all ocean pixels and are not very relevant.

Although the solar radiation on top of the atmosphere near the north pole is highest on earth on 21st June, not all of it makes it to the surface. Due to the low solar angle the atmosphere absorbs/reflects more of the incoming radiation and the surface radiation is slightly lower then further south. This must be considered when accessing the albedo effect. (It is not a total radiation balance)

jdallen

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #51 on: January 17, 2017, 06:38:44 PM »
Unsurprisingly, the Bering and Barents stand out as troubling, though parts of the Beaufort may be as well.

The Barents warming potential far and away strikes me as the most dangerous change... And this year's freezing season may be further proof of it.
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Pi26

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #52 on: January 18, 2017, 08:10:02 AM »
Thanks Tealight, for me your AWP-image is the best arctic overview.
But You should additional show the numbers of Albedo-Melting-Potential in meters of ice -  would be 1/60 of Kwh numbers?
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 08:15:44 AM by Pi26 »

Rob Dekker

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #53 on: January 21, 2017, 09:30:17 AM »
Tealight, your work received special attention in the SIPN post-season report :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/post-season

With two paragraphs, some graphics, and some pretty intelligent responses. Stuff like this :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.

Looking forward to your reply on that assessment, and keep up the great work you are doing !
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #54 on: January 21, 2017, 02:22:28 PM »
Tealight - I can only repeat Rob's sentiments. Well done.

However, may I make a small suggestion as regards your section on Freezing Degree Days. This section begins with the text...

The "Freezing Degree Days" (FDD) is a different quantification of average temperature. It combines the absolute temperature (2m) below the freezing point with the duration of the cold period.

Example:
1. Day: average Temp: -3°C
2. Day: average Temp: -5°C
3. Day: average Temp: -7°C
Total: 15°C


I may be indulging in a spot of pedantry, but the term "absolute temperature" is normally only used when one is referring to a temperature measured in Kelvin. Also, it can be helpful to a reader if one makes it very clear when one is talking about the difference between two temperatures, rather than an actual temperature. A technique for doing this is to use "3 Celsius degrees" to refer to the difference between two temperatures, and only use "minus 3 degrees Celsius" when referring to an actual temperature.

An alternative form of words could be something like...

"The "Freezing Degree Days" (FDD) is a different quantification of average temperature. Sea water typically freezes at around -1.8°C, and the "Freezing Degree" aspect refers to the amount by which  the average daily temperature (measured at a height of 2 metres above the surface) is beneath this benchmark. The cumulative FDD is simply the summation of each of these daily differences. It thus combines the temperatures below the freezing point with the duration of the cold period.

Example:
Day 1 average Temp = -3°C; Temp below freezing = 1.2 Celsius degrees
Day 2 average Temp = -5°C; Temp below freezing = 3.2 Celsius degrees
Day 3 average Temp = -7°C; Temp below freezing = 5.2 Celsius degrees

Cumulative FDD after 3 days = (1.2 + 3.2 + 5.2) = 9.6 Freezing Degree Days


(NB I am quite familiar with the NSIDC section on thermodynamic processes, as I helped edit it about 5 or 6 years ago.)

If you have not seen it already, you might be interested in this PNAS article on the observational determination of albedo decrease...

http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3322.full

On a lighter note, for your amusement, you may also want to have a look at this denialist article from about 11 years ago. The scientific rigour used in the analysis perhaps leaves a little to be desired.

http://www.warwickhughes.com/cool/cool13.htm
« Last Edit: January 21, 2017, 02:28:59 PM by Bill Fothergill »

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #55 on: January 21, 2017, 07:23:40 PM »
Tealight, your work received special attention in the SIPN post-season report :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/post-season

With two paragraphs, some graphics, and some pretty intelligent responses. Stuff like this :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.

Looking forward to your reply on that assessment, and keep up the great work you are doing !

Well of course it received special attention. After all i volunteered to be part of the Action Team and offered my calculation to be included in the meltseason review. But my main intend to join the Action team was to promote other forcasting metrics besides extent and highlight the very low compactness of last years melting season. This is an issue we discussed heavily on the forum its time for professionals to consider other metrics than extent too. I feel with these two main inputs the SIPN if better prepared for the future. My participation is the reason why I put my real name on my maps and graphs. For scientific publications it's more appropiate. Under "Report Credits" I'm mentioned as an Action Team Member.

Quote
Action Team Members:
Gisele Arruda; Oxford Brookes University.
Ed Blockley; Polar Climate Group, Met Office Hadley Centre.
Frank Kauker; Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research.
Alek Petty; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and University of Maryland.
François Massonnet; Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Brussels and Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3, Barcelona, Spain).
Nico Sun; CryosphereComputing.

With 25 years  I'm still at the beginning of my career, unlike most of the forum members. Maybe being part of the report could help me with my future endeavours.

@Bill Fothergill
I'm not really happy with the description and calculation of FDD myself, but we would need to discuss it in another thread. There are specific reasons why I created it as I did.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2017, 12:08:02 AM by Tealight »

Rob Dekker

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #56 on: January 22, 2017, 09:16:30 AM »
That's nice, Tealight.
I am sure that you will obtain a decent job, given your commitment to science and your bold stand on issues. These are valuable traits, which are appreciated in the commercial world.

But I was asking specifically about your response to this comment in the SIPN report :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2017, 09:23:51 AM by Rob Dekker »
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DrTskoul

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #57 on: January 22, 2017, 03:28:17 PM »
That's nice, Tealight.
I am sure that you will obtain a decent job, given your commitment to science and your bold stand on issues. These are valuable traits, which are appreciated in the commercial world.

But I was asking specifically about your response to this comment in the SIPN report :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.

The most important thing is natural curiosity and aptitude in learning new things.... Which he has amply displaued...
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Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #58 on: January 23, 2017, 12:36:45 AM »
But I was asking specifically about your response to this comment in the SIPN report :
Quote
Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.

This section is partly my own work and I've know this exact part for over a month (The majority of the report was written in November and December. In January we did mostly polishing work). What do you expect me to reply to myself? It is just a much better wording then what I said in May 2016 on the "Quantifying albedo effect" thread.

Quote
...The model doesn't calculate if the energy is used for melting more ice or if it increases water temperature which delays refreezing and limits ice thickening in winter

Of course I'm happy that my model encouraged the SIPN network to consider forecasting fall sea ice concentrations as well. The cumulative AWP is good at showing the rough regions for low fall sea ice concentration, but there needs to be a forcing component. The Beaufort Gyre for example rotated all of the Beaufort anomalies clockwise.


ktonine

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #59 on: January 24, 2017, 03:56:27 PM »
Tealight, your work received special attention in the SIPN post-season report :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/post-season

Yes, Tealight, congratulations on work well done :)

rboyd

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #60 on: January 28, 2017, 08:38:12 PM »
This paper on the impact of an ice free Arctic in September got mentioned in the Scribbler comments section. It assumes a worst case of 2040 as the date for an ice-free September, with no deterioration after that, which leads to a 50% cut in the global carbon budget for a 2 degree temperature rise (including overshoot and negative emissions).

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000429/full

I am not a climate scientist, but their assumptions of (i) 2040 as the earliest possible date for an ice-free September; (ii) no worsening due to feedback - e.g. August becoming ice free; and (iii) the heat imbalance assumptions seem to be a tad conservative. If I understand the paper correctly, less conservative assumptions could more than wipe out the carbon budget. Comments from more qualified individuals would be welcome.

I do have training as an economist, and their assumptions of the ability to ramp up a fossil fuel replacement infrastructure with no bottlenecks or delays as the timeframe shrinks and scale increases means that they very significantly underestimate the costs involved. Such "frictionless" models are the standard unfortunately for the Integrated Climate Models.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #61 on: January 29, 2017, 02:14:24 AM »
This paper on the impact of an ice free Arctic in September got mentioned in the Scribbler comments section. It assumes a worst case of 2040 as the date for an ice-free September, with no deterioration after that, which leads to a 50% cut in the global carbon budget for a 2 degree temperature rise (including overshoot and negative emissions).

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000429/full

I am not a climate scientist, but their assumptions of (i) 2040 as the earliest possible date for an ice-free September; (ii) no worsening due to feedback - e.g. August becoming ice free; and (iii) the heat imbalance assumptions seem to be a tad conservative. If I understand the paper correctly, less conservative assumptions could more than wipe out the carbon budget. Comments from more qualified individuals would be welcome.

I do have training as an economist, and their assumptions of the ability to ramp up a fossil fuel replacement infrastructure with no bottlenecks or delays as the timeframe shrinks and scale increases means that they very significantly underestimate the costs involved. Such "frictionless" models are the standard unfortunately for the Integrated Climate Models.

Any paper that only considers carbon emmisions will fail to predict the current Arctic warming trend. Especially this and last years warming is driven by heat and moisture import from lower latitudes. Combined with low albedo in spring these effects have far more influence than CO2.

Regarding the CO2 emissions scenario projecting a decline by mid-century. This is wishful thinking even if we eliminate all fossil fuel burning. Humans have been emitting CO2 and CH4 for over 8000 years due to agriculture. The increased land use (at least in Australia and America) and intensity of agriculture since the industrial revolution should at least keep the CO2 levels at a constant high level.

I'd suggest this presentation from the American Geophysical Union (AGU) for a more detailed view on past emissions:

rboyd

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #62 on: January 31, 2017, 07:11:51 PM »
Thank you Tealight. I am amazed by the amount of inertia in the general scientific community with respect to actual events in the Arctic. Given the albedo potential, the implications could completely upend the current climate policy assumptions.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #63 on: January 31, 2017, 07:31:14 PM »
I think Mother N. is taking over our role of placing GHG aloft?

Albedo flip has fed this change by allowing ever earlier exposure of the northern permafrost/soils to the sun as ( increased?) snow ablates ever earlier.

Not only does the loss of Sea ice impact temps 1,500km away surely the early loss of snow impacts temps in a similar way?

The ever earlier loss of snow cover ( and its albedo) since the turn of the Century has increased melt forcing across the Arctic Sea ice so increasing the albedo impact but also a double whammy for the already warmed Northern lands. The run of record high temps on land areas around the Arctic Basin is no 'fluke'.

I believe we are now seeing yearly CO2 reaching record highs, even as we try and reduce our imputs, because of the warming, ongoing, across the north. This is a self reinforcing feedback loop which will remove man's CO2 emissions from the equation and lead to continued warming well beyond 2c!
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Steven

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #64 on: March 01, 2017, 05:00:57 PM »
New paper by Y. Zhan and R. Davies:

September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation

http://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/1.4975531

Abstract:
Quote
A significant three-month lag correlation between June top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation (RSR) and the subsequent September sea-ice extent (SIE) is found within the Arctic, and the predictability of September SIE is examined by both satellite observations and reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficient between de-trended June RSR and September SIE reaches up to 0.88 for MISR, and the forecast skill of 0.36 using MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset is similar to or better than complex prediction models. Results confirm the particular importance of the early summer surface energy budget and help to explain the abrupt declines of September SIE in the past decade (2007, 2012, 2015).




Buddy

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #65 on: March 01, 2017, 06:06:14 PM »
Quote
September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation

For some of the more "scientifically inclined"....I have a question:

What is PRECISELY meant by "top of the atmosphere reflected solar radiation (RSR)?"

Is it:

A)  Amount of solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere"?
B)  Amount of solar radiation FROM the top of the atmosphere?
C)  Other...

A non-scientific inquiring mind would like to know.... :)
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Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #66 on: March 01, 2017, 07:19:43 PM »
Quote
September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation

For some of the more "scientifically inclined"....I have a question:

What is PRECISELY meant by "top of the atmosphere reflected solar radiation (RSR)?"

Is it:

A)  Amount of solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere"?
B)  Amount of solar radiation FROM the top of the atmosphere?
C)  Other...

A non-scientific inquiring mind would like to know.... :)

C)  Amount of reflected solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere" (measured by satellites)

This is affected by many metrics like snow cover, sea ice, melt ponds and cloud cover. The more solar radiation is reflected from the earth the less energy is absorbed.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2017, 08:37:34 PM by Tealight »

Buddy

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #67 on: March 01, 2017, 08:04:31 PM »
Quote
C)  Amount of reflected solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere" (measured by satellites)

Thanks....I assumed as much....but I don't like to assume.

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Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #68 on: March 24, 2017, 11:25:44 PM »
I prepared the daily updates of my AWP model for this melting season. In April I have some more time for polishing and might update all regional graphs as well. Until then you can follow the bright colour spectacle on:

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs


oren

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #69 on: March 25, 2017, 08:33:56 AM »
Thanks Tealight. I expect your graphs will be very busy this year.

Darvince

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #70 on: March 25, 2017, 08:42:38 AM »
It tells me that permission is required to view the graphs updated for 2017.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #71 on: March 25, 2017, 09:04:48 AM »
It tells me that permission is required to view the graphs updated for 2017.

Ah sorry I forgot to make the images public. It should be fixed now.

oren

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #72 on: March 25, 2017, 10:58:26 AM »
It tells me that permission is required to view the graphs updated for 2017.

Ah sorry I forgot to make the images public. It should be fixed now.
For some reason I still find many of the images on the site appear as broken icons and are not loading. Not sure why.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #73 on: April 03, 2019, 01:19:03 AM »
BAM! Two years have gone by without an update.

I finally have the processsing power and coding skills to take the AWP model to where I intended it to be. Instead of only calculating the anomaly of potentially absorbed solar radiation. I now calculate the raw accumulated values, the anomaly and a percentage of the current year to the maximum possible (complete Ice-free conditions). From the 1980s to 2010s this percentage has gone up from roughly 52% to 62%. Generally from August onwards the Arctic is 75% icefree and from September onwards the Arctic is 90% icefree.

Everything is now much better presented with interactive graphs and sliders to compare individual years. The regional data is already calculated, but needs even more work for proper presentation. Near-real time data for 2019 is in the works too.

Fancy new webpage:
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/awp

Still too short documentation of AWP model:
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/doc.


Viggy

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #74 on: April 03, 2019, 01:27:03 AM »
Stumbled on to it while looking at your AMSR2 tab and I have to say it is absolutely beautiful in its presentation.

Please keep up the amazing work and cannot wait for the near real time data additions!

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #75 on: April 03, 2019, 01:45:58 AM »
Stumbled on to it while looking at your AMSR2 tab and I have to say it is absolutely beautiful in its presentation.

Please keep up the amazing work and cannot wait for the near real time data additions!

Thanks Viggy, it really means a lot to me. The presentation takes up about 75% of the time, but is also the most important part.

oren

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #76 on: April 03, 2019, 05:40:57 AM »
Please keep up the amazing work and cannot wait for the near real time data additions!
Indeed. I am sure many feel the same.

gerontocrat

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #77 on: April 03, 2019, 12:56:43 PM »
Please keep up the amazing work and cannot wait for the near real time data additions!
Indeed. I am sure many feel the same.
This person does, and like Oliver Twist, I ask for more, more, more. Tealight is a victim of his success. (Or perhaps Nico Sun is to blame).

I am sure when the regional AWP graphs come out, the cumulative change especially in the peripheral seas such as the Bering and Barents displayed from Tealight's system will be spectacular. The story is almost complete, reduced sea ice ramping up AWP, which in turn allows the seas to gobble up heat.

I wonder if we will ever have the data to show much additional heat has been swallowed by the Arctic Seas over the years from increased AWP and how much is still locked up in storage below the top few metres of the ocean.

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Neven

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #78 on: April 05, 2019, 02:35:45 PM »
Question from new member:

Good day,
I have been an attentive and permanent lurker for a couple of years, and really appreciate the profound knowledge and experience contributing to this forum.

There is an issue that has been nagging at the back of head for the last years, and that this open water, and more precisely the total time (days during the year) that the seas / oceans / bays that constitute the Artic Sea area have open water during the year. And also how soon there is already open water and the potential feedback that has on issue as jet stream movement, water favor, ocean currents and the like.

I understand that every year there is day by day analysis of what record will be smashed (or has been smashed) and whether there will be a BOE. I agree with the seriousness of these implications and the effects we are already witnesses around the globe.

However, if we look at 2012 when a ´perfect storm´ resulted in the current min. Arctic sea ice extent and compare this with for instance 2016. Yes the min. sea ice extent in 2016 was much higher (around 4 million km2), but there as already more open water during the period april till half july in 2016 then in 2012 (only in mid July of 2012 did the extent descrease in value in comparison to 2016). So my question would be to those that have more accumulated knowledge that I, has there been calculations on the effect that each day of open water has issues such as jet stream movement, water favor, ocean currents and the like?

And has this been expressed in some form? Perhaps km2 open water per day? Or accumulative open water during the year? Could taking the area of each of the seas be taken as a starting point.

Somehow looking at developments this year (2019) it is clear that every 1 km2 of open water that is added on a daily will start to absorb heat till it freezes over again (if it does) when winter arrives.

Appologies if the post is what long, but looking forward to feedback. Thank you Jeroen
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ijgosse

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #79 on: April 05, 2019, 03:47:24 PM »
Thanks Neven

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #80 on: April 05, 2019, 04:09:49 PM »
Perhaps one way to look at an open seas metric is to consider it the inverse of ice cover.

If its not covered by ice - it's open water.

e.g. (basin extent - ice cover) = open seas

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #81 on: April 05, 2019, 04:39:42 PM »
There is an issue that has been nagging at the back of head for the last years, and that this open water, and more precisely the total time (days during the year) that the seas / oceans / bays that constitute the Artic Sea area have open water during the year. And also how soon there is already open water and the potential feedback that has on issue as jet stream movement, water favor, ocean currents and the like.


....and has this been expressed in some form? Perhaps km2 open water per day? Or accumulative open water during
the year? Could taking the area of each of the seas be taken as a starting point.

For maps of ice-free days and anomalies go to Tealight's stunning website https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays
and for Tealight's equally stunning maps of Albedo Warming potential and anomalies thereof go to ... https://cryospherecomputing.tk/awp.html

Last year I  looked at area, ice-free days and open-water percentages by each Arctic sea and groups of seas from 1979 to 2018. If you have the patience and time, the results up to end 2018 are shown as a  series of posts starting here...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2223.msg185727.html#msg185727

But from that to calculating the  potential feedback that has on issues as jet stream movement, water favor, ocean currents and the like.? The people who do that, if ever, will get the Nobel Prize for physics and the Field Prize for Mathematics.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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ijgosse

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #82 on: April 05, 2019, 08:41:10 PM »
Thanks gerontocrat, these are very usefull!! And they indicate worrying developments.
kind regards Jeroen

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #83 on: April 07, 2019, 12:11:26 AM »
The new near-real-time Albedo-Warming Potential script is programmed. If it updates tomorrow as intended I post the website link. The regional data has to wait until I structure the regional data from the previous 40 years.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2019, 01:04:08 AM by Tealight »

Klondike Kat

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #84 on: April 07, 2019, 12:23:58 AM »
Very nice tealight,

gerontocrat

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #85 on: April 07, 2019, 10:48:19 AM »
The regional data has to wait until I structure the regional data from the previous 40 years.

Patience, Gerontocrat, patience !

The graphs demonstrate so well that it is early melt that matters most. Although 2012 extent minimum extent was so far below all others the melt happened relatively late in the season.  2016 AWP cumulative anomaly was so much higher due to being at lowest extent in late April to late June.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #86 on: April 07, 2019, 06:41:31 PM »
IIRC 2016 also had a lower area to extent ratio, which also drove the AWP.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #87 on: April 07, 2019, 08:00:31 PM »
Outstanding work, Nico. There is an added feedback that could kick in this year. All the heat is generally extracted from Pacific water before it passes into the Arctic from the Bering strait. With the exceptionally early clear out of Bering sea ice and the strong southerly winds across the strait this year, and the anomalously warm water already in the Aleutian region, we may see significant ocean heat advection from the Pacific to the Arctic this summer. That will cause a rapid wipe out of Chukchi and Beaufort sea ice if it happens and the melt out could progress into the central Arctic ocean.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #88 on: April 07, 2019, 10:37:28 PM »
Thanks for the patience and support everybody.

Here is the AWP NRT link:
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp

By the way I added a website icon which should be displayed next to the page name in the tab. Right now it's some melting sea ice in Beaufort Sea (2016) at super low resolution. Maybe I make a logo in the future.

Viggy

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #89 on: April 08, 2019, 12:21:39 AM »
Page added to my daily favourites! Thanks again for amazing work and all the effort you've put into this!

Also, the head start the AWP anomaly has over any another year is extremely concerning for the rest of this melt season!

Viggy

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #90 on: April 09, 2019, 10:57:37 PM »
Thanks for the patience and support everybody.

Here is the AWP NRT link:
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp

By the way I added a website icon which should be displayed next to the page name in the tab. Right now it's some melting sea ice in Beaufort Sea (2016) at super low resolution. Maybe I make a logo in the future.

Some feedback - not sure if you are aware but images don’t seem to load on mobile. When I hold down on the empty space and ask to open image though, it does show up on the next tab.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #91 on: April 11, 2019, 12:11:44 AM »
Some feedback - not sure if you are aware but images don’t seem to load on mobile. When I hold down on the empty space and ask to open image though, it does show up on the next tab.

I still have to upload daily updated images to google drive and insert a shared link into the website. (I don't know yet how put them on the github server)

Oren had the exact same problems and it had something to do with his googleaccount. Can you try opening the webpage in incognito mode?

Viggy

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #92 on: April 12, 2019, 12:37:38 PM »
Some feedback - not sure if you are aware but images don’t seem to load on mobile. When I hold down on the empty space and ask to open image though, it does show up on the next tab.

I still have to upload daily updated images to google drive and insert a shared link into the website. (I don't know yet how put them on the github server)

Oren had the exact same problems and it had something to do with his googleaccount. Can you try opening the webpage in incognito mode?

Hmm yea, that’s odd but it worked perfectly fine in incognito mode!

gerontocrat

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #93 on: April 18, 2019, 03:19:45 PM »
The graphs already show that early melt matters. Longer time at max radiation on a larger area of open water increasing extent and depth of Arctic Seas' heating.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #94 on: April 20, 2019, 05:33:12 PM »
Two images to show the current massive regional differences. First a Peak Watt map showing maximum solar intensity at noon. It might be important to get the initial punch to turn snow into a melt pond. The high Arctic never receives this intensity and relies entirely on imported warmth.

For daily averaged energy values the Sea of Okhotsk, closely followed by Bering Sea currently absorbs over ten times more energy than the central Arctic.

Arctic mean: 6.1 MJ/m2

Sea of Okhotsk   18.711
Bering Sea   16.264
Hudson Bay   4.977
Baffin Bay   9.695
East Greenland Sea   8.159
Barents Sea   8.567
Kara Sea   2.753
Laptev Sea   2.387
East Siberian Sea   2.462
Chukchi Sea   3.255
Beaufort Sea   2.598
Canadian Archipelago   2.75
Central Arctic   1.601

gerontocrat

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #95 on: April 20, 2019, 10:23:21 PM »
Two images to show the current massive regional differences. First a Peak Watt map showing maximum solar intensity at noon. It might be important to get the initial punch to turn snow into a melt pond. The high Arctic never receives this intensity and relies entirely on imported warmth.

For daily averaged energy values the Sea of Okhotsk, closely followed by Bering Sea currently absorbs over ten times more energy than the central Arctic.

Arctic mean: 6.1 MJ/m2

Sea of Okhotsk   18.711
Bering Sea   16.264
Hudson Bay   4.977
Baffin Bay   9.695
East Greenland Sea   8.159
Barents Sea   8.567
Kara Sea   2.753
Laptev Sea   2.387
East Siberian Sea   2.462
Chukchi Sea   3.255
Beaufort Sea   2.598
Canadian Archipelago   2.75
Central Arctic   1.601

The Bering and the Okhotsk Seas have had a lot of early melt.
The Greenland and Barents look as if they may be going into melt mode.
Baffin extent is pretty low.

So a double boost to AWP - low ice area + high insolation due to relatively low latitude.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #96 on: April 20, 2019, 11:28:47 PM »
Tealight than you again for your amazing cryosphere computing resources. I keep wondering how the extra added insolation, the AWP anomaly, affects the melting  season. It is certain that extra AWP in the inner Arctic basin has a significant effect. 2016 was a great example, where the extra AWP in April and May was the background that enabled the GAC in August, and also delayed the freezing season significantly, so that winter 2017 saw the lowest volume by far on record. All this despite the cloudy weather in June and July 2016 that prevented a new September extent record.
I am also quite confident that AWP anomalies in connected peripheral seas, such as the Bering and the Barents, affect the melting season progress in the central Arctic, where the minimum is set. However, I believe AWP anomalies in the following seas do not have much effect on September minima, though  they do contribute to general AGW:
Hudson Bay - far and geographically disconnected  from the central arctic, melts out anyway every summer.
Sea of Okhotsk - same as above.
Gulf of St. Lawrence - same as above.
Baffin Bay - downstream (in terms of main currents) of the CAA and central Arctic, melts anyway every summer. Its gained heat flows south.
Greenland Sea - downstream of the central Arctic, its ice in September is ice that was exported from the central Arctic late in the melting season. Its gained heat flows south.

I personally would be happy to see a "central basin and connected seas" cumulative AWP anomaly graph, excluding the seas listed above, in addition to the pan-arctic graph.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #97 on: April 21, 2019, 11:58:18 AM »
Oren I just finished summarizing the regional data. The Bering Sea and Beaufort Sea are already very close to icefree. If I do another central Arctic Graph for the pack ice region then they have to drop as well. In my view the Barents Sea is just like Greenland Sea, mostly for export of central Arctic Ice. The Bering Sea is too far south to affect the Central Arctic, at most it affects southern Chukchi Sea but not more. 2012 has shown that the Pacific side of the Arctic can get a huge melt even with a record bad Bering Sea melt.


« Last Edit: April 25, 2019, 10:02:22 AM by Tealight »

oren

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #98 on: April 21, 2019, 12:32:32 PM »
Thanks Tealight. My thinking about the Bering and Barents is that they are partly upstream of the central Arctic in terms of currents and sometimes winds, but certainly the effect is much lower than the inner regions. I'll be perfectly happy with a central Arctic graph without them.

Tealight

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Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« Reply #99 on: April 27, 2019, 07:04:48 PM »
Before working on all region graphs I created another section for the High Arctic. This one should be more useful for determining the record low in September. It only includes the following regions: Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Central Arctic.

For the high Arctic 2012 still holds the record high followed by 2016 in second and 2007/2011 tied in third. The far higher average ice cover also significantly increases the gap to a completly ice-free state. On one hand the 2010s just reach 40% of the ice-free conditions compared to 61% for the whole Arctic. But on the other hand the 2010s absorb 32% more than the 1980s. For the whole Arctic it's just 15% more. So the last ten years really impacted the high latitudes more than the lower ones.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/awp

Note: Before doing this recalculation I increased the ice albedo from 80% to 85% relative to ocean albedo. This is more in line with the values I measured from satellite images. The result is slighly lower absolute values, but hardly any change to anomaly values. The near-real time data will be updated tomorrow.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 10:11:36 PM by Tealight »