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AMOC slowdown

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sidd:
Kelly et al. trace AMOC slowdown to Agulhas leakage.

doi:10.1002/2016GL069789

No role for salinity,  AMOC slowdown not due to freshening in the north, rather they see increased salinity from precipitation decrease. This is a new development, Ruth Curry saw the opposite earlier.

johnm33:
I read that as coincident rather than causative/consequential.  I'm still looking for some work which convinces me that it's not the inertia of melt/arctic waters hugging the coast through Labrador/Newfoundland impeding the flow of the gulf stream across to the east. My thinking is that these two streams cause each other to back up, and when mixed to flow east slower. Most of the meltwaters from the Arctic and Greenland make their way south by this route.

AbruptSLR:
Per the linked reference: "In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies.":

S. S. Drijfhout, A. T. Blaker, S. A. Josey, A. J. G. Nurser, B. Sinha and M. A. Balmaseda, (2014), "Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins" Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061456

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061456/abstract

Abstract: "The first decade of the twenty-first century was characterised by a hiatus in global surface warming. Using ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses we show that heat uptake between the 1990s and 2000s increased by 0.7 ± 0.3Wm−2. Approximately 30% of the increase is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Other basins contribute via reduced heat loss to the atmosphere, in particular the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans (30%), and the subpolar North Atlantic (40%). A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies."

See also:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/heat-uptake-by-several-oceans-drives-pause-says-study.html


Also, for the important influence of the Agulhas Current on amplifying global temperatures see: Turney, C. S.M. and Jones, R. T. (2010), Does the Agulhas Current amplify global temperatures during super-interglacials?. J. Quaternary Sci., 25: 839–843. doi: 10.1002/jqs.1423.

jai mitchell:
Stefan Rahmstorf October 9th Iceland presentation of recent science confirming AMOC slowdown.



prokaryotes:

--- Quote from: jai mitchell on October 11, 2016, 11:03:03 PM ---Stefan Rahmstorf October 9th Iceland presentation of recent science confirming AMOC slowdown.



--- End quote ---
Btw. made the same mistake, but per video info from University of Iceland on May 27th 2016 at the conference "The Past, the Future. How Fast, How Far? Threats Facing the Climate System"

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