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Ken Feldman

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2200 on: December 10, 2019, 10:59:56 PM »
...
Well, if you believe everything the IEA, EIA and the gas producers sell you, yeah.
...

The article and the image clearly show that this new data "... is according to experts at Rystad Energy, “an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence data firm” based in Norway."

Did you even read the article you posted?  It clearly uses the IEA as a source:

Quote
Indeed, Rystad’s bullish outlook for U.S. shale is hardly alone. The Paris-based International Energy Agency reported in November that the U.S. will supply 85% of the new oil and 30% of the new gas through 2030. The current bear oil and gas market will not last forever - nothing ever does. Surviving through the pain of lower pricing, the industry has so sharpened its knife that higher prices will offer drastically easier times.

But aside from the IEA, let's look at Rystad's outlook:

Quote
Rystad says the U.S. shale industry will continue to mount production even if prices drop. The reality is that oil and gas companies already have. Oil prices have been sliced in half since the triple-digits seen in mid-2014, yet U.S. crude oil production has still jumped over 50% to nearly 13 million b/d. For 2019 alone, the weekly oil rig count has plummeted 25% to 663 rigs as of Friday, yet weekly output has risen another 1.2 million b/d. Natural gas prices have fallen 17% this year and gas rigs are down 34%, yet gas U.S. output has still risen over 10%.

Perhaps in Norway, you don't need money to actually produce things.  In the US though, you do.

https://www.npr.org/2019/11/20/780879474/as-oil-prices-drop-and-money-dries-up-is-the-u-s-shale-boom-going-bust

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As Oil Prices Drop And Money Dries Up, Is The U.S. Shale Boom Going Bust?

November 20, 2019

The shale oil boom that catapulted the U.S. into being the world's largest oil producer may be going bust. Oil prices are dropping amid weakening demand, bankruptcies and layoffs are up, and drilling is down — signs of a crisis that's quietly roiling the industry.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/U-S-shale-sector-shrinking-to-survive-14833356.php

Quote
US shale sector shrinking to survive
Jordan Blum Nov. 14, 2019

The U.S. shale industry is finally learning to live within its financial means, shrinking to survive amid an environment of depressed crude prices and Wall Street animosity toward nearly all things oil and gas.

https://www.stltoday.com/business/columns/david-nicklaus/as-us-nears-energy-independence-its-oil-and-gas-sector/article_81fe27e3-2035-51b8-974b-a757f5747782.html

Quote
As US nears energy independence, its oil and gas sector is ailing
Nov 12, 2019

The U.S. is tantalizingly close to energy independence for the first time in 76 years, but the future doesn’t look bright for the firms that got us there.

Bankruptcies are rising in the oil patch, with Texas law firm Haynes and Boone counting filings by 33 producers in the first nine months of this year, up from 28 in all of 2018. Even Chesapeake Energy, a shale-gas pioneer, was forced last week to acknowledge “substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.”

Big banks reportedly are trying to reduce their exposure to oil and gas loans, and stock-market investors are none too keen on the sector either.

https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2019/11/29/tapped-out-as-investors-ditch-the-energy-industry.html

Quote
Tapped out: As investors ditch the energy industry, producers try to keep above ground
 By Chris Mathews  – Reporter, Houston Business Journal
Nov 29, 2019, 2:00am EST

Despite the shale boom oil and gas companies made billions on, investors are shying away from pumping more money into the industry.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/11/22/reduced-access-to-credit-making-life-harder-for-shale-operators

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Reduced access to credit making life harder for shale operators
By Kriti Gupta on 11/22/2019

NEW YORK (Bloomberg) - Banks have begun trimming back the credit lines of America’s shale producers, further undercutting a beleaguered industry that’s been struggling to rebuild investor confidence.

Laredo Petroleum Inc. and Oasis Petroleum Inc. are among at least six producers whose ability to secure short-term loans against their oil and natural gas reserves have dropped by 10% or more, according to data in earnings statements and filings. The declines offer the first hint of results from a semi-annual bank review of the industry’s borrowing capacity that generally runs through December.

For the first time since 2016, an industry survey done prior to the review found most respondents expected to see declines. The noose is tightening at a time when producers have seen their market values plunge 21% this year. Meanwhile, at least 15 producers have already filed for bankruptcy during the year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-Big-Oil-Wasting-Its-Time-in-The-US-Shale-Patch.html

Quote
s Big Oil Wasting Its Time in The US Shale Patch?
By Nick Cunningham - Nov 19, 2019

Growth in the U.S. shale industry is dramatically slowing down, with cash-strapped drillers slashing spending and scrapping rigs. At the same time, the oil majors are consolidating their position and moving forward with aggressive drilling plans.

The business model for small and medium-sized drillers has been shaky at best, and arguably unworkable since it depends on a steady diet of capital even as constant drilling fails to produce profits. But the story is not over yet. The oil majors have promised to succeed where the rest of the industry has mostly failed, using economies of scale, better technology, and larger contiguous plots of land to cut costs.

But just because the majors are pumping billions of dollars into the ground doesn’t mean that they will succeed either.

In fact, there are some signs that things are not going well for the majors.
ExxonMobil recently redefined its strategy in U.S. shale, characterizing its operations as one of long-term value creation instead of the “short-cycle” cash generation, as it previously described its shale venture. Results “will take time, but we’re confident they will bear fruit,” Staale Gjervik, president of XTO Energy, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil, said at a recent industry conference.

The rephrasing may seem trivial, but it amounts to an admission that the oil major’s shale operations are taking longer than previously thought to become a financial success.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2201 on: December 10, 2019, 11:23:58 PM »
...
Perhaps in Norway, you don't need money to actually produce things.  In the US though, you do.
..

In the US all you need is a company that is willing to loan money for the fracking operation, and enough capital/revenue to make monthly payments on the loan.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2202 on: December 11, 2019, 12:44:06 AM »

Given that we can measure the concentration of methane in the atmosphere and thus calculate the total net emissions (all sources minus all sinks), if two sources were underestimated that implies that another source (or multiple sources) were overestimated or that the sinks were underestimated.


The attached NOAA plot of the atmospheric methane concentrations at the South Pole from 2006 to Dec 2, 2019 indicate that the trend line of this methane concentration is accelerating; thus if some methane sources are not changing then other sources are currently accelerating, and may accelerate even more in the future due to global warming.

...

While studies can't point unequivocally to the explosion of fracking in the US over the past decade as a cause for the rise, the timing of the shift from the stabilization period and the growth of fracking may be more than coincidental.

...
I would suggest that increased fracking of natural gas and oil is more likely to be the cause of the recent resumption of methane concentration increases and that reducing and eventually eliminating the use of fossil fuels will lead to a big decrease in the concentrations of methane in the atmosphere.  I've read similar statements from James Hansen but can't find links to them at the moment.

Certainly fracking of natural gas is one source of atmospheric methane; however, the northern wetlands (including the tundra) is another significant source and the attached atmospheric methane concentration graph from Barrow, Alaska (from 2005 to Dec 9, 2019) shows a recent surge in local methane concentrations suggesting a local methane emission source (such as northern wetlands).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2203 on: December 11, 2019, 03:12:59 AM »
The linked reference provides a convenient summary of consensus climate science's understanding of climate feedbacks and their prospects for evaluation.  However, the reference does not evaluate the risks of a near-term collapse of the WAIS could trigger a cascade of tipping points leading to an abrupt slowdown of the MOC (THC in the reference), due to the potential warming of the tropical ocean's SSTA by 5C.  Instead, the reference categorizes ocean-atmosphere feedbacks as slow but makes the following statement about a possible stability-altering feedback for the MOC (THC):

"However, all projections agree that in the warming climate, increased heating and freshening at the ocean surface in the high latitudes will enhance the stability of the water column at the deep-water formation sites, resulting in positive feedback due to weaker mixing of excess heat downward. An apparent monostable mode of the AMOC in a state-of-the-art ESM may, however, be due to the tropical ocean salinity bias in these models (Liu et al., 2014) so that no final conclusion can be drawn on the possibility of stability-altering feedback, with potentially complex implications for sensitivity-altering feedbacks as well."


Heinze, C., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C., Balkanski, Y., Collins, W., Fichefet, T., Gao, S., Hall, A., Ivanova, D., Knorr, W., Knutti, R., Löw, A., Ponater, M., Schultz, M. G., Schulz, M., Siebesma, P., Teixeira, J., Tselioudis, G., and Vancoppenolle, M.: ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/379/2019/

Abstract
Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for providing climate projections under different scenarios of human-induced forcing. ESMs include a large number of additional processes and feedbacks such as biogeochemical cycles that traditional physical climate models do not consider. Yet, some processes such as cloud dynamics and ecosystem functional response still have fairly high uncertainties. In this article, we present an overview of climate feedbacks for Earth system components currently included in state-of-the-art ESMs and discuss the challenges to evaluate and quantify them. Uncertainties in feedback quantification arise from the interdependencies of biogeochemical matter fluxes and physical properties, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of processes, and the lack of long-term continuous observational data to constrain them. We present an outlook for promising approaches that can help to quantify and to constrain the large number of feedbacks in ESMs in the future. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research (researchers, lecturers, and students). This study updates and significantly expands upon the last comprehensive overview of climate feedbacks in ESMs, which was produced 15 years ago (NRC, 2003).

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2204 on: December 11, 2019, 03:29:31 AM »
The linked article discusses the just released '2019 Arctic Report Card', and its conclusion that the Arctic permafrost has already become a net emitter of GHGs; which will act as an increasingly positive feedback for global warming:

Title: "The Arctic may have crossed key threshold, emitting billions of tons of carbon into the air, in a long-dreaded climate feedback"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/10/arctic-may-have-crossed-key-threshold-emitting-billions-tons-carbon-into-air-long-dreaded-climate-feedback/

See also:

Title: "Arctic Report Card: Record territory for warm temperatures, loss of snow and ice"

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/arctic-report-card-record-territory-for-warm-temperatures-loss-of-snow-and-ice

&

Title: "Arctic Report Card: Update for 2019"

https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019

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wili

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2205 on: December 11, 2019, 04:51:28 AM »
"uncertainty is not our friend"

Indeed!!

I have a feeling that if his doctors told him "The circulation of blood to your brain may be failing rather quickly" then Hef would jump up and down with joy because the 'may' in the warning expressed some uncertainly ! :)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Hefaistos

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2206 on: December 11, 2019, 06:36:24 AM »
"uncertainty is not our friend"

Indeed!!

I have a feeling that if his doctors told him "The circulation of blood to your brain may be failing rather quickly" then Hef would jump up and down with joy because the 'may' in the warning expressed some uncertainly ! :)

Here's the graph of those blood vessels attached )

From the same article: "Away from the region of watermass transformation, these southward flowing waters are deep, isolated from atmospheric ventilation, and thus store energy and chemical compounds for hundreds of years. This property of the ocean—storing anomalies at depth—gives the ocean a longer memory than the atmosphere, with the potential to influence climate variability on long timescales."

We know not much about what's hidden down there in that ocean memory of earth's historic climate. Changes to the AMOC both herald and drive climate shifts.
I feel good about the results of this research, that AMOC is not in decline, otoh it's been over its 30 year historical average for the last 5 years.
And again, oceans store more than 99% of earth's thermal energy.

« Last Edit: December 11, 2019, 06:42:33 AM by Hefaistos »

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2207 on: December 11, 2019, 08:34:09 AM »
Certainly fracking of natural gas is one source of atmospheric methane; however, the northern wetlands (including the tundra) is another significant source and the attached atmospheric methane concentration graph from Barrow, Alaska (from 2005 to Dec 9, 2019) shows a recent surge in local methane concentrations suggesting a local methane emission source (such as northern wetlands).

At AGU Saunois et al (submitted) think growing methane emissions come entirely from South East Asia and Africa. See these tweets from Zeke Hausfather:
https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1204549028333023232

And the submitted paper by Saunois et al:
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/essd-2019-128/

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2208 on: December 11, 2019, 08:59:05 AM »
Also see Turner er al 2017, who think the methane sink may have shrunk:
https://www.pnas.org/content/114/21/5367

kassy

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2209 on: December 11, 2019, 12:04:42 PM »
And again, oceans store more than 99% of earth's thermal energy.

As they always do and still we see all these interesting and sometimes quick changes in the historical record so clearly that cannot be used to argue that future changes can not occur or occur rapidly. 
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Hefaistos

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2210 on: December 11, 2019, 04:06:54 PM »
And again, oceans store more than 99% of earth's thermal energy.

As they always do and still we see all these interesting and sometimes quick changes in the historical record so clearly that cannot be used to argue that future changes can not occur or occur rapidly.

How quick was that, at the quickest?

Given:
i) that renewables already are cheaper than coal for power generation, and soon will be cheaper than natural gas;
ii) that transportation will be based on battery powered vehicles with a ban on new FF cars already in place in 10 years in some countries, and say 20 years in most other OECD countries;
iii) that climate policy is getting ever more active;

I hypothesize that we only need say 30-40 years (1 investment cycles of e.g. power generation installations, or 2 investment cycles for e.g. car production) to get off enough of the fossil fuels to save the world without too much climate change drama.

The brutal forces of the capitalist market mechanism supplemented with more active climate policy incentives will be enough to solve the more burning climate issues.
We don't even need to assume direct CO2 capture/sequestration tech to arrive at such conclusion. I further suppose that this will be the mainstream view of the fortcoming IPCC report (AR6) in 2022.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2019, 04:20:25 PM by Hefaistos »

Mozi

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2211 on: December 11, 2019, 04:15:56 PM »
You have to be joking.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2212 on: December 11, 2019, 04:21:58 PM »
It may be a quick timeline, but I don't see why it is impossible, and it would save us a lot of climate misery (not all but a lot).
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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2213 on: December 11, 2019, 04:42:20 PM »
The  reposted first image illustrates how complicated it is to identify current sources of methane emissions as there are so many different sources, and it also shows that in the observed record permafrost has contributed little to total methane emission.  That said, the reposted second image suggests that in 2019 permafrost degradation has likely increased atmospheric methane concentrations in the Arctic, and the linked articles offers several different reasons to be concerned that this source may currently be accelerating:

Caption for the first image: "Comparison between current day estimates of geological and other methane sources. Geological emissions are based on the bottom-up and top-down estimates discussed in this work (see Fig. 1 and text). Other natural and anthropogenic emissions refer to the average (and range) of bottom-up and top-down estimates reported by Saunois et al. (2016). Note that a downward revision of the geological source requires an upward revision of the same magnitude for the fossil fuel industry (Section 4). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.383.f2"

Cain Silvey, Karla M. Jarecke, Kristine Hopfensperger, Terrance D. Loecke, Amy J. Burgin. Plant Species and Hydrology as Controls on Constructed Wetland Methane Fluxes. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 2019; 0 (0): 0 DOI: 10.2136/sssaj2018.11.0421

https://dl.sciencesocieties.org/publications/sssaj/abstracts/83/3/848

Abstract: "Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas. Hydrology and species composition are important controls on wetland CH4 emissions. Few studies target interactive effects on CH4 fluxes, but rather study variables in isolation. Therefore, we asked: How do hydrology and plant species interact to affect CH4 fluxes from wetland soils? We measured CH4 fluxes under stable water tables in mesocosms planted with Asclepias incarnata L. and mesocosms planted with Alisma triviale Pursh. We then tested the interactive effects in saturated and unsaturated restored field locations by measuring CH4 fluxes from the plants and the surrounding soil. In mesocosms, CH4 fluxes from A. incarnata were 8-fold greater than fluxes from control (no plant) or A. triviale mesocosms. Alisma triviale mesocosms had higher CO2 to CH4 ratio (less methanogenic dominance) than control mesocosms but did not differ significantly from A. incarnata mesocosms. In the field, hydrology was the dominant control of CH4 flux; both plant species produced approximately 10-fold more CH4 in saturated plots than in unsaturated plots. Incorporating hydrology and species composition into modeling will better predict CH4 fluxes from wetland soils, which in turn could aid in designing restored wetlands that offset greenhouse gas emissions."

&

Title: "Unexpected culprit: Wetlands as source of methane"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/06/190619085703.htm

Summary: "Wetlands are an important part of the Earth's natural water management system. The complex system of plants, soil, and aquatic life serves as a reservoir that captures and cleans water. However, as cities have expanded, many wetlands were drained for construction. In addition, many areas of land in the Midwest were drained to increase uses for agriculture to feed a growing world."

&

Strack, M., Hayne, S., Lovitt, J. et al. Petroleum exploration increases methane emissions from northern peatlands. Nat Commun 10, 2804 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10762-4

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10762-4

Abstract: "Peatlands are globally significant sources of atmospheric methane (CH4). In the northern hemisphere, extensive geologic exploration activities have occurred to map petroleum deposits. In peatlands, these activities result in soil compaction and wetter conditions, changes that are likely to enhance CH4 emissions. To date, this effect has not been quantified. Here we map petroleum exploration disturbances on peatlands in Alberta, Canada, where peatlands and oil deposits are widespread. We then estimate induced CH4 emissions. By our calculations, at least 1900 km2 of peatland have been affected, increasing CH4 emissions by 4.4–5.1 kt CH4 yr−1 above undisturbed conditions. Not currently estimated in Canada’s national reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, inclusion would increase current emissions from land use, land use change and forestry by 7–8%. However, uncertainty remains large. Research further investigating effects of petroleum exploration on peatland GHG fluxes will allow appropriate consideration of these emissions in future peatland management."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2214 on: December 11, 2019, 04:48:50 PM »
It may be a quick timeline, but I don't see why it is impossible, and it would save us a lot of climate misery (not all but a lot).

Certainly, the various Earth Systems that may increase nonlinearly in the next 30 to 40 years will not be anthropomorphically moved by how misery they could save mankind from by holding-off; as they will accelerate in accordance with the laws of physics no matter how much wishful thinking mankind engages in.
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nanning

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2215 on: December 11, 2019, 05:25:56 PM »
What a great metaphore wili :)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2216 on: December 11, 2019, 05:50:35 PM »

And again, oceans store more than 99% of earth's thermal energy.

The first reference confirms that the oceans absorbs only 93% of the Earth's Energy Imbalance (not 99%); while the second reference and attached image shows that the lion's share of the change in ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015 has ended up in the Southern Ocean; where it is contributing to an expansion of the CDW:

Benoit Meyssignac et al (20 August 2019), "Measuring Global Ocean Heat Content to Estimate the Earth Energy Imbalance", Front. Mar. Sci., https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00432

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00432/full

Abstract: "The energy radiated by the Earth toward space does not compensate the incoming radiation from the Sun leading to a small positive energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (0.4–1 Wm–2). This imbalance is coined Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI). It is mostly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and is driving the current warming of the planet. Precise monitoring of EEI is critical to assess the current status of climate change and the future evolution of climate. But the monitoring of EEI is challenging as EEI is two orders of magnitude smaller than the radiation fluxes in and out of the Earth system. Over 93% of the excess energy that is gained by the Earth in response to the positive EEI accumulates into the ocean in the form of heat. This accumulation of heat can be tracked with the ocean observing system such that today, the monitoring of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and its long-term change provide the most efficient approach to estimate EEI. In this community paper we review the current four state-of-the-art methods to estimate global OHC changes and evaluate their relevance to derive EEI estimates on different time scales. These four methods make use of: (1) direct observations of in situ temperature; (2) satellite-based measurements of the ocean surface net heat fluxes; (3) satellite-based estimates of the thermal expansion of the ocean and (4) ocean reanalyses that assimilate observations from both satellite and in situ instruments. For each method we review the potential and the uncertainty of the method to estimate global OHC changes. We also analyze gaps in the current capability of each method and identify ways of progress for the future to fulfill the requirements of EEI monitoring. Achieving the observation of EEI with sufficient accuracy will depend on merging the remote sensing techniques with in situ measurements of key variables as an integral part of the Ocean Observing System."

&

Lijing Cheng et al. (10 Mar 2017), "Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015", Science Advances, Vol. 3, no. 3, e1601545, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601545

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601545.full

Abstract: "Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study."

Extract: "It is evident that all six ocean basins have experienced significant warming since 1998 but that heat was mainly stored in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean from 1960 to 1998 …"

Partial caption for attached image: "Fig. 5 OHC changes from 1960 to 2015 for different ocean basins. (A) For 0 to 2000 m …"
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2217 on: December 11, 2019, 06:16:21 PM »
The linked reference finds that: "… EffCS is a better predictor than TCR of future transient warming under RCP8.5."  This is likely the case because with strong forcing more feedback mechanisms become nonlinear faster.

Sanderson, B.: Relating Climate Sensitivity Indices to projection uncertainty, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-77, in review, 2019.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-77/esd-2019-77.pdf
https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-77/

Abstract.
Can we summarize uncertainties in global response to greenhouse gas forcing with a single number? Here we assess the degree to which traditional metrics are related to future warming indices using an ensemble of simple climate models together with results from CMIP5 and CMIP6. We consider Effective Climate Sensitivity (EffCS), Transient Climate Response at CO2 quadrupling (T140) and a proposed simple metric of temperature change 140 years after a quadrupling of carbon dioxide (A140). In a perfectly equilibrated model, future temperatures under a non-mitigation scenario are almost perfectly described by T140, whereas in a strongly mitigated future, both ECS and T140 are found to be poor predictors of 21st century warming, and future temperatures are better correlated with A140. However, we show that T140 and EffCS calculated in full CMIP simulations are subject to errors arising from control model drift and internal variability. Simulating these factors in the simple model leads to 30 % relative error in the measured value of T140, but only a 10 % error for EffCS. As such, measured values of EffCS can be better correlated with true TCR than measured values of TCR itself. We propose that this could be an explanatory factor in the previously noted surprising result that EffCS is a better predictor than TCR of future transient warming under RCP8.5.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2218 on: December 11, 2019, 07:16:19 PM »
It may be a quick timeline, but I don't see why it is impossible, and it would save us a lot of climate misery (not all but a lot).

Certainly, the various Earth Systems that may increase nonlinearly in the next 30 to 40 years will not be anthropomorphically moved by how misery they could save mankind from by holding-off; as they will accelerate in accordance with the laws of physics no matter how much wishful thinking mankind engages in.

The faster we decarbonize the better off we will be. Even if things get really bad, they could always get even worse.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2219 on: December 11, 2019, 09:01:53 PM »
The faster we decarbonize the better off we will be. Even if things get really bad, they could always get even worse.
I've posted on Arctic Permafrost CO2 emissions at...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2546.msg240382.html#msg240382

Things certainly could get a good deal worse.
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HapHazard

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2220 on: December 11, 2019, 09:53:15 PM »
The faster we decarbonize the better off we will be.
  • faster
  • decarbonize

In today's global political & economic reality, it is only possible to choose 1 of the above.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2221 on: December 11, 2019, 09:55:42 PM »
While the linked reference is a few years old, it is after AR5, and it indicates that at least CMIP5 models were missing some positive feedbacks (such as possibly ice-climate feedbacks and/or fire related feedbacks) that were active in the Holocene:

Zhengyu Liu, Jiang Zhu, Yair Rosenthal, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Axel Timmermann, Robin S. Smith, Gerrit Lohmann, Weipeng Zheng, and Oliver Elison Timm (August 11, 2014), "The Holocene temperature conundrum", PNAS, 111 (34) E3501-E3505; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1407229111

https://www.pnas.org/content/111/34/E3501

Significance
Marine and terrestrial proxy records suggest global cooling during the Late Holocene, following the peak warming of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (∼10 to 6 ka) until the rapid warming induced by increasing anthropogenic greenhouses gases. However, the physical mechanism responsible for this global cooling has remained elusive. Here, we show that climate models simulate a robust global annual mean warming in the Holocene, mainly in response to rising CO2 and the retreat of ice sheets. This model-data inconsistency demands a critical reexamination of both proxy data and models.

Abstract
A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198–1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2019, 10:04:20 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2222 on: December 11, 2019, 10:26:18 PM »
The linked 2015 reference finds that the disintegration of the Thwaites Ice Shelf (both the eastern ice shelf and the ice tongue) is accelerating due to basal melting and warm CDW intrusion beneath the eastern ice shelf since 2000), together with the shear stress between the eastern ice shelf and the residual ice tongue due to differential ice flow rates:

Kim et al (2015), "Disintegration and acceleration of Thwaites Ice Shelf on the Amundsen Sea revealed from remote sensing measurements", GIScience & Remote Sensing, Volume 52, Issue 4, DOI: 10.1080/15481603.2015.1041766

Abstract: "Thwaites Ice Shelf in the Amundsen Sea is one of the biggest ice shelves in West Antarctica and is well known for significant mass changes. In the shear zone between Thwaites Glacier Tongue and its eastern ice shelf, shear stress forced by different flow rates of the ice shelves is causing the ice to break apart. A time series analysis of remote sensing data obtained by Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), TerraSAR-X, and airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) revealed that the shear zone has extended since 2006 and eventually disintegrated in 2008. We quantified the acceleration of Thwaites Ice Shelf with time by using the feature tracking method. The buttressing loss induced by the extension of the shear zone and progressive disintegration accelerated the flow of Thwaites Glacier Tongue, which in turn increased the shear stress on its eastern ice shelf. We determine causes of disintegration in the newly formed shear zone to be oceanic basal melting and structural weakening induced by Circumpolar Deep Water intrusion beneath the eastern ice shelf since 2000. The structural weakening was examined by using the density distribution of rifts and crevasses on the ice shelf, which were well identified from high-resolution SAR and optical satellite images."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2223 on: December 11, 2019, 10:41:08 PM »
As the linked reference has many different bathymetries for the ASE, I provide the following information and associated images that clearly shows how the 'Big Ear' cavity at the base of the Thwaites Ice Tongue leads directly into the Byrd Subglacial Basin:

Millan et al. (2017), "Bathymetry of the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector of West Antarctica from Operation IceBridge gravity and other data", Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1360-1368, doi:10.1002/2016GL072071

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL072071

Abstract
We employ airborne gravity data from NASA's Operation IceBridge collected in 2009–2014 to infer the bathymetry of sub–ice shelf cavities in front of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica. We use a three‐dimensional inversion constrained by multibeam echo sounding data offshore and bed topography from a mass conservation reconstruction on land. The seamless bed elevation data refine details of the Pine Island sub–ice shelf cavity, a slightly thinner cavity beneath Thwaites, and previously unknown deep (>1200 m) channels beneath the Crosson and Dotson ice shelves that shallow (500 m and 750 m, respectively) near the ice shelf fronts. These sub–ice shelf channels define the natural pathways for warm, circumpolar deep water to reach the glacier grounding lines, melt the ice shelves from below, and constrain the pattern of past and future glacial retreat.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2019, 10:56:04 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2224 on: December 11, 2019, 11:01:40 PM »
The linked reference evaluates the implications of more accurately considering a 3-D viscoelastic Earth models as opposed to the less accurate assumption of elastic response on the sea-level fingerprint implications of an abrupt collapse of the WAIS.  Their findings conclude that "… when viscous effects are included, the peak sea-level fall predicted in the vicinity of WAIS during a melt event will increase by ~25% and ~50%, relative to the elastic case, for events of duration 25 years and 100 years, respectively."  This is important w.r.t. global sea level rise as the further the local sea-level drops around West Antarctica, the higher sea level will raise at distance away from West Antarctica.

Carling C. Hay, Harriet C. P. Lau, Natalya Gomez, Jacqueline Austermann, Evelyn Powell, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Konstantin Latychev, and Douglas A. Wiens (2016), "Sea-level fingerprints in a region of complex Earth structure: The case of WAIS", Journal of Climate, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0388.1


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0388.1


Abstract: "Sea-level fingerprints associated with rapid melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) have generally been computed under the assumption of a purely elastic response of the solid Earth. We investigate the impact of viscous effects on these fingerprints by computing gravitationally self-consistent sea-level changes that adopt a 3-D viscoelastic Earth model in the Antarctic region consistent with available geological and geophysical constraints. In West Antarctica, the model is characterized by a thin (~65 km) elastic lithosphere and sub-lithospheric viscosities that span three orders of magnitude, reaching values as low as ~4 × 1018 Pa s beneath WAIS. Our calculations indicate that sea-level predictions in the near field of WAIS will depart significantly from elastic fingerprints in as little as a few decades. For example, when viscous effects are included, the peak sea-level fall predicted in the vicinity of WAIS during a melt event will increase by ~25% and ~50%, relative to the elastic case, for events of duration 25 years and 100 years, respectively. Our results have implications for studies of sea-level change due to both ongoing mass loss from WAIS over the next century and future, large scale collapse of WAIS on century-to-millennial time scales."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2225 on: December 11, 2019, 11:05:19 PM »
Hopefully, future models of Antarctic Ice Sheets will use the geothermal heat flux information provided by the linked reference:

Yasmina M. Martos, Manuel Catalan, Tom A. Jordan,Alexander Golynsky, Dmitry Golynsky, Graeme Eagles & David G. Vaughan (6 November 2017), "Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL075609 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075609/abstract?utm_content=buffer4cbb3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Antarctica is the largest reservoir of ice on Earth. Understanding its ice sheet dynamics is crucial to unraveling past global climate change and making robust climatic and sea level predictions. Of the basic parameters that shape and control ice flow, the most poorly known is geothermal heat flux. Direct observations of heat flux are difficult to obtain in Antarctica, and until now continent-wide heat flux maps have only been derived from low-resolution satellite magnetic and seismological data. We present a high resolution heat flux map and associated uncertainty derived from spectral analysis of the most advanced continental compilation of airborne magnetic data. Small-scale spatial variability and features consistent with known geology are better reproduced than in previous models, between 36% and 50%. Our high-resolution heat-flux map and its uncertainty distribution provide an important new boundary condition to be used in studies on future subglacial hydrology, ice-sheet dynamics and sea-level change."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)
« Reply #2226 on: December 11, 2019, 11:18:34 PM »
For those not too familar with the Pope, Smith and Kohler marine glaciers and their ice shelves: Crosson and Dotson (all in the ASE), I provide the following linked open access reference and associated image:

Lilien, D. A., Joughin, I., Smith, B., and Shean, D. E.: Elevated melt causes varied response of Crosson and Dotson Ice Shelves in West Antarctica, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-248, in review, 2018.

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2017-248/
https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2017-248/tc-2017-248.pdf

Abstract. Crosson and Dotson Ice Shelves are two of the most rapidly changing outlets in West Antarctica, displaying both significant thinning and grounding-line retreat in recent decades. We used remotely sensed datasets to investigate the processes controlling their changes in speed and grounding-line position over the past 20 years. We combined these observations with inverse modeling of the viscosity of the ice shelves to understand how weakening of the shelves affected this speedup. These ice shelves have lost mass continuously since the 1990s, and we find that this loss is primarily a result of melt beneath Dotson. High melt rates persisted over the period covered by our observations (1996–2014), with the highest rates beneath areas that ungrounded during this time. Grounding line flux exceeded basinwide accumulation by about a factor of two throughout the study period, consistent with earlier studies, resulting in significant loss of grounded as well as floating ice. The near doubling of Crosson's speed in some areas during this time likely is the result of weakening of its margins and retreat of its grounding line. This speedup contrasts with Dotson, which has continued to move slowly despite high, increasing melt rates near its grounding line. Our results indicate that changes to melt rates began before 1996, and suggest that observed increases in melt in the 2000s compounded an ongoing retreat of this system. Advection of a channel along Dotson, as well as the grounding-line position of Kohler Glacier, suggest that Dotson experienced a change in flow around the 1970s, which may be the initial cause of its continuing retreat.


Caption: "Figure 1: Overview of study area a) 1996 surface speed overlaid on the mosaic of Antarctica (MOA) (Haran et al., 2013).  Yellow and green lines show grounding line positions in 1996 and 2011 respectively (Rignot et al., 2014). Black lines indicate catchment boundaries of Crosson and Dotson used for flux calculations. b) Surface elevation relative to the EGM2008 geoid from WorldView/GeoEye stereo DEM mosaic (Shean et al., 2016). c) Ice bottom elevation relative to the EGM2008 geoid, which represents bed elevation over grounded ice."
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AbruptSLR

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The linked reference demonstrates that to model significant amounts of ice-climate feedbacks requires a significant degree of nonlinear feedback behavior:

Tigchelaar, M., Timmermann, A., Friedrich, T., Heinemann, M., and Pollard, D.: Nonlinear response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to late Quaternary sea level and climate forcing, The Cryosphere, 13, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2615-2019, 2019.

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/2615/2019/

Abstract
Antarctic ice volume has varied substantially during the late Quaternary, with reconstructions suggesting a glacial ice sheet extending to the continental shelf break and interglacial sea level highstands of several meters. Throughout this period, changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet were driven by changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions and global sea level; yet, so far modeling studies have not addressed which of these environmental forcings dominate and how they interact in the dynamical ice sheet response. Here, we force an Antarctic Ice Sheet model with global sea level reconstructions and transient, spatially explicit boundary conditions from a 408 ka climate model simulation, not only in concert with each other but, for the first time, also separately. We find that together these forcings drive glacial–interglacial ice volume changes of 12–14 ms.l.e., in line with reconstructions and previous modeling studies. None of the individual drivers – atmospheric temperature and precipitation, ocean temperatures, or sea level – single-handedly explains the full ice sheet response. In fact, the sum of the individual ice volume changes amounts to less than half of the full ice volume response, indicating the existence of strong nonlinearities and forcing synergy. Both sea level and atmospheric forcing are necessary to create full glacial ice sheet growth, whereas the contribution of ocean melt changes is found to be more a function of ice sheet geometry than climatic change. Our results highlight the importance of accurately representing the relative timing of forcings of past ice sheet simulations and underscore the need for developing coupled climate–ice sheet modeling frameworks that properly capture key feedbacks.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Perhaps the cited attribution studies will be completed in time to impact CMIP7:

Noël, B., van Kampenhout, L., van de Berg, W. J., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Wouters, B., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Brief communication: CESM2 climate forcing (1950–2014) yields realistic Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-209, in review, 2019.

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2019-209/

Abstract. We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) using a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ~ 11 km) to dynamically downscale the climate of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2; ~ 111 km). After further statistical downscaling to 1 km spatial resolution, evaluation using in situ SMB measurements and remotely sensed GrIS mass change shows good agreement, including the recently observed acceleration in surface mass loss (2003–2014). Comparison with an ensemble of eight previously conducted RACMO2 simulations forced by climate reanalysis demonstrates that the current product accurately reproduces the long term average and inter-annual variability of individual SMB components, and captures the recent increase in meltwater runoff that accelerated GrIS mass loss. This means that, for the first time, an Earth System Model (CESM2), without assimilating observations, can be used to reconstruct historical GrIS SMB and the mass loss acceleration that started in the 1990s. This paves the way for attribution studies of future GrIS mass loss projections and contribution to sea level rise.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson