JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,805,727 km2(February 7, 2019)
Extent GAIN of 10k, 55k less than the average LOSS of 45k for this day. Since the year 2000, only one other year had an extent gain this early - 2017 on this day and just 2k.
Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 only goes back to 2003. Damn.
Extent loss from maximum is 372k km2 (2.4%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 97.8% of extent loss for the season done and on average 12 days to minimum (19th February).
The Perils of Projections
The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.45 million km2, 300k km2 more than the record low in 2017. Using the average remaining melt from this day to minimum of the 2016 to 2018 years would give a minimum of 2.59 million km2 440k km2 more than the record low in 2017.
Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone, the remaining ice being solid and close to the coast, melt has been below average every day for approaching two months. Indeed, a simple linear projection of recent 2019 trends in melt gives a remaining melt to minimum of around 50,000 km2, resulting in a minimum of around 2.75 million km2 around the 10th February.