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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1150 on: February 13, 2019, 11:56:49 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,648,269 km2(February 12, 2019)

Extent loss of 48k, 14k more than the average loss of 34k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 393k km2 (2.5%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 98.9% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 7 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero. On the 5th February the linear projection was for a minimum on the 12th February, with an R2 correlation of 0.7 usually reckoned of some meaning. Now the projection is a minimum on the 5th March, with an R2 correlation of 0.14 usually reckoned as meaningless.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 320k km2 more than the record low in 2017.  Using the average remaining melt from this day to minimum of the 2016 to 2018 years would give a minimum of 2.55 million km2, 400k km2 more than the record low in 2017.

Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone, the remaining ice being solid and close to the coast, melt has been below average every day for well over one month - until the last 2 days. Late season extra melt? Maybe, maybe not.


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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1151 on: February 13, 2019, 02:24:22 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 12 February 2019


Total Antarctic area and extent basically stalled but now a nudge downwards.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1152 on: February 13, 2019, 02:30:31 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 12 February 2019


Weddell Sea Ice area and extent nudging upwards.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1153 on: February 13, 2019, 02:34:31 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 12 February 2019


Bellingshausen & Amundsen Sea Ice area and extent going down - especially area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1154 on: February 13, 2019, 02:37:46 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 12 February 2019


Ross Sea Ice area and extent gradual decline continues.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1155 on: February 13, 2019, 02:41:01 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 12 February 2019


West Pacific Sector Sea Ice area and extent decline continues quite strongly.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1156 on: February 13, 2019, 02:45:47 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 12 February 2019


Indian Ocean Sector Sea Ice area and extent confusing - area and extent diverging.
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Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1157 on: February 13, 2019, 10:02:53 PM »
Thanks for these analyses. It is good that you follow these data in detail.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1158 on: February 14, 2019, 09:12:59 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,597,635 km2(February 13, 2019)

Extent loss of 51k, 30k more than the average loss of 31k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 374k km2 (2.4%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 99.1% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 6 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.45 million km2, 300k km2 more than the record low in 2017.  Using the average remaining melt from this day to minimum of the 2016 to 2018 years would give a minimum of 2.51 million km2, 360k km2 more than the record low in 2017.

Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone, the remaining ice being solid and close to the coast, melt has been below average every day for well over one month - until the last 3 days. Late season extra melt?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1159 on: February 15, 2019, 08:02:39 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,588,423 km2(February 14, 2019)

Extent loss of 9k, 24k less than the average loss of 33k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 407k km2 (2.6%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 99.3% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 5 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 320k km2 more than the record low in 2017.  Using the average remaining melt from this day to minimum of the 2016 to 2018 years would give a minimum of 2.51 million km2, 360k km2 more than the record low in 2017.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1160 on: February 16, 2019, 09:42:06 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,576,884 km2(February 15, 2019)

Extent loss of 12k, 10k less than the average loss of 22k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 409k km2 (2.6%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 99.4% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 4 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.48 million km2, 330k km2 more than the record low in 2017.  Using the average remaining melt from this day to minimum of the 2016 to 2018 years would give a minimum of 2.50 million km2, 350k km2 more than the record low in 2017.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1161 on: February 17, 2019, 04:04:09 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,565,914 km2(February 16, 2019)

Extent loss of 11k, 10k less than the average loss of 21k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 419k km2 (2.6%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 99.6% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 3 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.49 million km2, 340k km2 more than the record low in 2017. 
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1162 on: February 18, 2019, 08:52:23 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,575,601 km2(February 17, 2019)

Extent gain of 10k, 27k less than the average loss of 17k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 446k km2 (2.8%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 99.7% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 2 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.52 million km2, 370k km2 more than the record low in 2017.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1163 on: February 19, 2019, 06:54:29 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,576,051 km2(February 18, 2019)

Extent loss of 0k, 12k less than the average loss of 12k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 458k km2 (2.9%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 99.8% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 1 day to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero. The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.54 million km2, 390k km2 more than the record low in 2017.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1164 on: February 20, 2019, 10:04:38 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,535,448 km2(February 19, 2019)

Extent loss of 41k, 32k greater than the average loss of 9k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 426k km2 (2.7%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 100.0% of extent loss for the season done and on average Zero days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero. The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.51 million km2, 360k km2 more than the record low in 2017.

The projection Ant1 attached has now passed its sell-by date, and will be retired until it re-emerges as a projection of possible maximum values later.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1165 on: February 21, 2019, 06:59:42 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,493,014 km2(February 20, 2019)

Extent loss of 42k, 42k greater than the average gain of 0.2 k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 386k km2 (2.4%) less than the 10 year average, with on average 100.0% of extent loss for the season done and on average -1 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero. The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 320k km2 more than the record low in 2017.

The projection Ant1 attached has now passed its sell-by date, and will be retired until it re-emerges as a projection of possible maximum values later.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1166 on: February 22, 2019, 10:26:02 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,479,307 km2(February 21, 2019)

Extent loss of 14k, 25k greater than the average gain of 12 k on this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 365k km2 (2.3%) less than the 10 year average, with on average 100.0% of extent loss for the season done and on average -2 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1167 on: February 23, 2019, 07:29:06 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,464,770 km2(February 22, 2019)

Extent loss of 15k, 28k greater than the average gain of 13 k on this day.

Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 332k km2 (2.1%) less than the 10 year average, with on average 100.0% of extent loss for the season done and on average -3 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero. Just waiting for extent loss to finish.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1168 on: February 24, 2019, 07:21:06 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,442,463 km2(February 23, 2019)

Extent LOSS of 22k, 42k LESS than the average GAIN of 20 k on this day.

Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017 and 2011, and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 292k km2 (1.8%) less than the 10 year average, being  4 days after the average date of the minimum on 19th February. Only in the record low year of 2017 was the date of minimum later (1 March).

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for extent loss to finish.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1169 on: February 24, 2019, 08:23:38 AM »
So it would need another 0.36 M km² to go down to make "my 2.08 M km²" guess come true. I do not believe any more that this will happen...

magnamentis

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1170 on: February 24, 2019, 01:05:58 PM »
So it would need another 0.36 M km² to go down to make "my 2.08 M km²" guess come true. I do not believe any more that this will happen...

probably you're right ;)

while, each year we dodge the canon ball the probability that it will be a nuke is increasing.
one could as well say that the bow is being stretched or the gun is being loaded, charge increasing
each year that will pass.

what i mean is that each of the past years there was a chance for a collapse, given the right conditions which, probably due to various feedbacks, were turning out in favour of the lce.

nevertheless the heat in the water is accumulating and co2 is on the rise and given the right conditions we shall probably observe events in awe.

(applies to the NH even more IMO )
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Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1171 on: February 24, 2019, 03:24:46 PM »
I am also more and more concerned. You just have to look at the yearly increase of CO2 (Keeling curve, Mauna Loa) in the atmosphere, combined with the steady increase of methane and nitrous oxide. So it once will turn out that all this thermal load added together starts the domino tiles to fall, one after another.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1172 on: February 24, 2019, 09:11:33 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 23 February 2019


I was expecting to post the Antarctic sea ice area and extent final graphs for the minimum. But perhaps there is a bit more ice loss to go. Here they are, anyway.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1173 on: February 24, 2019, 09:17:00 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 23 February 2019


I was expecting to post the Antarctic sea ice area and extent final graphs for the minimum. But perhaps there is a bit more ice loss to go. Here they are, anyway.

Weddell Sea
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1174 on: February 24, 2019, 09:24:45 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 23 February 2019


I was expecting to post the Antarctic sea ice area and extent final graphs for the minimum. But perhaps there is a bit more ice loss to go. Here they are, anyway.

BellingsHausen & Amundsen Sea
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1175 on: February 24, 2019, 09:29:58 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 23 February 2019


I was expecting to post the Antarctic sea ice area and extent final graphs for the minimum. But perhaps there is a bit more ice loss to go. Here they are, anyway.

Ross Sea
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1176 on: February 24, 2019, 09:48:11 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 23 February 2019


I was expecting to post the Antarctic sea ice area and extent final graphs for the minimum. But perhaps there is a bit more ice loss to go. Here they are, anyway.

West Pacific Sector
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1177 on: February 24, 2019, 09:56:41 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 23 February 2019


I was expecting to post the Antarctic sea ice area and extent final graphs for the minimum. But perhaps there is a bit more ice loss to go. Here they are, anyway.

Indian Ocean Sector
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1178 on: February 25, 2019, 10:05:41 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019)

Extent LOSS of 18k, 32k LESS than the average GAIN of 14 k on this day.

Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017 and 2011, and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 259k km2 (1.6%) less than the 10 year average, being 5 days after the average date of the minimum on 19th February. Only in the record low year of 2017 was the date of minimum later (1 March).

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for extent loss to finish.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1179 on: February 26, 2019, 06:56:10 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,442,482 km2(February 25, 2019)

Extent GAIN of 18k, 12k LESS than the average GAIN of 30 k on this day.

Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017 and 2011, and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

The Perils of Projections

Current minimum is 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019.

Has extent loss finished ?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1180 on: February 27, 2019, 08:57:15 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,469,025 km2(February 26, 2019)

Extent GAIN of 27k, 1k more than the average fgain of 26 k on this day.

Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017 and 2011, and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

The Perils of Projections

Current minimum is 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019.

Has extent loss finished ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1181 on: February 28, 2019, 07:11:00 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,477,312 km2(February 27, 2019)

Extent GAIN of 8k, 22k less than the average gain of 30 k on this day.

Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017 and 2011, and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

The Perils of Projections

Current minimum is 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019). Has extent loss finished ? Probably.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1182 on: March 01, 2019, 10:23:11 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,483,470 km2(February 28, 2019)

Extent GAIN of 6k, 39k less than the average gain of 33 k on this day.

Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018 & 2017 , and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

The Perils of Projections

Current minimum is 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019). Has extent loss finished ? Probably.
So assuming that....
-  Extent gain from minimum is 59k, 167k, 74% less trhan the average of 226k by this day,
- 1.3% of the freezing season done, with 200 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 18.3 million km2, 230k > 2017.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 10:32:22 AM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1183 on: March 02, 2019, 10:04:12 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,496,269 km2(March 1, 2019)

Extent GAIN of 13k, 22k less than the average gain of 35 k on this day.

Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018 & 2017 , and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

The Perils of Projections

Current minimum is 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019). Has extent loss finished ? Probably.
So assuming that....
-  Extent gain from minimum is 72k,  203k (74%) less than the average of 275k by this day,
- 1.5% of the freezing season done, with 199 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 18.27 million km2, 210k > 2017 (record low max year).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1184 on: March 02, 2019, 01:09:18 PM »
March 2nd is the date of latest minimum (1986) in the satellite record, and Antarctic minimums tend to be very 'neat' and obvious just three or so days after the minimum, so I would say the melting season is over.

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1185 on: March 03, 2019, 09:40:15 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,496,269 km2(March 1, 2019)

Extent GAIN of 13k, 22k less than the average gain of 35 k on this day.

Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018 & 2017 & 2016 , and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

The Perils of Projections

Current minimum is 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019). Is that it ? Yes.
So assuming that....
-  Extent gain from minimum is 118k,  201k (63%) less than the average of 319k by this day,
- 1.8% of the freezing season done, with 198 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 18.29 million km2, 230k > 2017 (record low max year).

I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1186 on: March 06, 2019, 11:53:53 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,582,606 km2(March 5, 2019)

3 days of low gains makes quite a difference.

Extent GAIN of 13k, 48k less than the average gain of 61 k on this day.
Extent is 4th 2nd  lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018  2017 & 2016 , and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

The Perils of Projections

-  Extent gain from minimum is 158k,  339k (68%) less than the average of 597k by this day,
- 2.9% of the freezing season done, with 195 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 18.15 million km2, 90k > 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1187 on: March 09, 2019, 09:59:08 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,582,606 km2(March 5, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains makes quite a difference. 2019 now sharing open space on the graph with 2017 and 2018 again.

Extent GAIN of 27k, 45k less than the average gain of 72 k on this day.
Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017.

The Perils of Projections

-  Extent gain from minimum is 244k,  452k (65%) less than the average of 696k by this day,
- 4.1% of the freezing season done, with 192 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 18.04 million km2, 20k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1188 on: March 14, 2019, 03:01:11 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,918,094 km2(March 13, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue. )Though note on Table Ant3 the year 2006)

Extent GAIN of 41k, 37k less than the average gain of 78 k on this day.
Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 493k,  573k (54%) less than the average of 1,066k by this day,
- 6.4% of the freezing season done, with 187 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.92 million km2, 140k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1189 on: March 15, 2019, 09:20:48 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,961,965 km2(March 14, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue. )Though note on Table Ant3 the year 2006)

Extent GAIN of 44k, 33k less than the average gain of 77 k on this day.
Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017 and 2006.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 537k,  612k (53%) less than the average of 1,149k by this day,
- 6.9% of the freezing season done, with 186 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.88 million km2, 180k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1190 on: March 16, 2019, 06:47:57 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,979,119 km2(March 15, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue.

Extent GAIN of 17k, 48k less than the average gain of 65 k on this day.
Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017 and 2006.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 554k,  661k (54%) less than the average of 1,216k by this day,
- 7.3% of the freezing season done, with 185 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.83 million km2, 230k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1191 on: March 17, 2019, 12:31:32 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,019,384 km2(March 16, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue.

Extent GAIN of 40k, 28k less than the average gain of 68 k on this day.
Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017 and 2006(just).

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 595k,  685k (53%) less than the average of 1,280k by this day,
- 7.7% of the freezing season done, with 184 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.81 million km2, 250k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1192 on: March 18, 2019, 06:17:59 PM »
Thank you for this gerontocrat. I would think once every 2 weeks would be adequate.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1193 on: March 23, 2019, 09:30:35 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,425,076 km2(March 22, 2019)

In the last week extent gain has been at or below average.

Extent GAIN of 68k, 0 k  different from  the average gain of 68 k on this day.
Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 1,000 k, 728k (42%) less than the average of 1,728 k by this day,
- 10.6% of the freezing season done, with 178 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.76 million km2, 300k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1194 on: March 25, 2019, 12:43:20 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,552,481 km2(March 24, 2019)

Extent gain has below average last 2 days contributing to Global Sea Ice loss..

- Extent GAIN of 56k, 30 k less than the average gain of 86 k on this day.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 1,128 k, 765k (40%) less than the average of 1,893 k by this day,
- 11.7% of the freezing season done, with 176 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.71 million km2, 350k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1195 on: March 31, 2019, 12:16:44 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 4,011,238 km2(March 30, 2019)

Extent gain has mostly at or below average in the last week.

- Extent GAIN on this day 65k, 25 k less than the average gain of 90 k on this day.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, 464 k above extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 1,587 k, 841k (35%) less than the average of 2,428 k by this day,
- 15.0% of the freezing season done, with 170 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.63 million km2, 430k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1196 on: April 06, 2019, 08:37:04 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :4,580,044 km2(April 5, 2019)

Until this day, extent gain was mostly at or below average in the last week.

- Extent GAIN on this day 119k, 22 k greater than the average gain of 97 k on this day.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, 355 k above extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 2,155 k, 881k (29%) less than the average of 3,037 k by this day,
- 18.6% of the freezing season done, with 164 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.63 million km2, 430k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1197 on: April 08, 2019, 11:55:20 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 4,847,913 km2(April 7, 2019)

For three days , extent gain has been well above average, a change from mostly at or below average for the last few weeks.

- Extent GAIN on this day 130k, 23 k greater than the average gain of 107 k on this day.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, 428 k above extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 2,423 k, 831k (26%) less than the average of 3,254 k by this day,
- 19.9% of the freezing season done, with 162 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.69 million km2, 370k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1198 on: April 13, 2019, 10:02:31 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 5,313,645 km2(April 12, 2019)

In the last 5 days, for three days extent gain has been well below average, followed by 2 days well above average.

- Extent GAIN on this day 139k, 33 k greater than the average gain of 106 k on this day.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, 371 k above extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 2,889 k, 912k (24%) less than the average of 3,801 k by this day,
- 23.2% of the freezing season done, with 157 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.62 million km2, 440k less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1199 on: April 20, 2019, 06:48:28 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 5,967,618 km2(April 19, 2019)

In the last week, extent gain has been more below average than above average.

- Extent GAIN on this day 66k, 27 k less than the average gain of 93 k on this day.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, 246 k above extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 3,543 k, 1,075k (23%) less than the average of 4,618 k by this day,
- 28.1% of average extent gain done, with 150 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.48 million km2, 580k less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2019, 07:44:12 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)