Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,188,659 km2（October 8, 2019）

Extent dithered around the maximum and the melt season is very slow in getting under way. Perhaps the recent and ongoing Southern  SSW has had an effect?

- 2019 is still 5th lowest in the satellite record since 2002 (but not by much),
- Extent is above 2018, 2017, 2016, & 2008,
- Extent decrease on this day 8 k, 31 k less than the average extent loss (last 10 years) of 39 k on this day,
- Extent loss to date 0.16 million km2, 0.19 million (55%) less than the 10 year average of 0.35 million km2 by this day.
- 2.2% of the season done, with on average 135 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.48 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,153,837 km2（October 9, 2019）

For a changeextent loss greater than average on this day

- 2019 is still 5th lowest in the satellite record since 2002,
- Extent is above 2018, 2017, 2016, & 2008,
- Extent decrease on this day 35 k, 10 k less than the average extent loss (last 10 years) of 25 k on this day,
- Extent loss to date 0.19 million km2, 0.19 million (50%) less than the 10 year average of 0.38 million km2 by this day.
- 2.4% of the season done, with on average 134 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002.
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[gerontocrat]

The University of Bremen image shows a lot of 50% sea ice. I think the extent data disguises the degree of meting to date.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,136,162 km2（October 13, 2019）

Extent loss has stalled in the last three days - to the extent of a net increase in extent

- 2019 is 6th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, but 13th since 1987
- Extent is below the 1980's average by a mere 32k, and oly 84 k below the 990's average
- Extent increase in the last 3 days 12 k, compared with average extent loss (last 10 years) of 132 k in these 3 days,
- Extent loss to date 0.21 million km2, 0.32 million (60%) less than the 10 year average of 0.53 million km2 by this day.
- 3.3% of the season done, with on average 130 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.61 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002.

i.e. the Antarctic melting season has not got going. What a contrast with the Arctic
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,976,906 km2（October 17, 2019）

Extent loss stalled for another three days - but on this extent loss well below average. Just maybe the melt season is getting underway at last.

- 2019 is 6th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, but 14th lowest for the years since 1987,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by a mere 61k, and 127 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 74 k, 16 k les than the last 10 years' average of 58k,
- Extent loss to date 0.33 million km2, 0.29 million (47.1%) less than the 10 year average of 0.70 million km2 by this day.
- 4.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 126 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.62 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002 and 0.47 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,744,356 km2（October 21, 2019）

Extent loss well below average on this day & for 4 of the last 5 days. Just maybe the melt season is getting underway at last.

- 2019 up to 4th lowest from 6th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 10th from 14th lowest for the years since 1987,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 129 k, and 109 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 79 k, 32 k less than the last 10 years' average of 46 k,
- Extent loss to date 0.60 million km2, 0.26 million (30.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.86 million km2 by this day.
- 5.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 122 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.57 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002 and 0.43 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,456,855 km2（October 25, 2019）

Extent loss well below above average on this day and for most of the last week or so. The melt season is underway at last.

- 2019 up to 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 8th lowest for the years since 1987,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 229 k, and 137 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 100 k, 43 k more than the last 10 years' average of 57 k,
- Extent loss to date 0.89 million km2, 0.17 million (16%) less than the 10 year average of 1.06 million km2 by this day.
- 6.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 118 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.51 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002 and 0.36 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,108,909 km2（October 29, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so, and on this day the first century break of the season.
The melt season is properly underway.

- 2019 up to 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 10th lowest for the years since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 324 k, and 225 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 104 k, 43 k more than the last 10 years' average of 57 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.24 million km2, 0.06 million (5%) less than the 10 year average of 1.30 million km2 by this day.
- 8.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 114 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.42 million km2, 5th lowest since 2002 and 0.27 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,988,192 km2（October 31, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so

- 2019 up 4th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 10th lowest for the years since 1979, but the 2011 data for these few days looks a bit odd.
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 308 k, and 247 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 53 k, 11 k more than the last 10 years' average of 42 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.36 million km2, 0.06 million (4.2%) less than the 10 year average of 1.42 million km2 by this day.
- 8.9% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 112 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.42 million km2, 5th lowest since 2002 and 0.27 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,796,070 km2（November 2, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so increasing to a century break on this day

- 2019 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 9th lowest for the years since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 360 k, and 299 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 119 k, 42 k more than the last 10 years' average of 77 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.55 million km2, 0.03 million (2.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.52 million km2 by this day.
- 9.5% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 110 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.34 million km2, 4th lowest since 2002 and 0.20 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,652,131 km2（November 3, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so increasing to a 2nd century break in a row on this day

- 2019 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 7th lowest for the years since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 428 k, and 364 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 144 k, 49 k more than the last 10 years' average of 95 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.70 million km2, 0.09 million (5.9%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.61 million km2 by this day.
- 10.1 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 109 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.29 million km2, 3rd lowest since 2002 and 0.15 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,493,884 km2（November 4, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so increasing to a 3rd century break in a row on this day

- 2019 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 4th lowest for the years since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 521 k, and 472 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 158 k, 47 k more than the last 10 years' average of 111 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.85 million km2, 0.14 million (7.9%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.72 million km2 by this day.
- 10.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 108 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.25 million km2, 3rd lowest since 2002 and 0.10 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,296,365 km2（November 5, 2019）

I am posting every day while these very high extent losses continue.

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so increasing to a 4th century break in a row on this day, on this day nearly a double century

- 2019 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 652 k, and 618 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 198 k, 121 k more than the last 10 years' average of 77 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.05 million km2, 0.26 million (14.7%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.79 million km2 by this day.
- 11.2 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 107 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.13 million km2, and 0.02 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[blumenkraft]

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,137,172 km2（November 6, 2019）

I am posting every day while these very high extent losses continue.

Extent loss above average for most of the last 2 weeks or so with a 5th century break in a row on this day.

- 2019 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 737 k, and 716 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 159 k, 75 k more than the last 10 years' average of 84 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.21 million km2, 0.35 million (19.6%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.86 million km2 by this day.
- 11.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 106 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.05 million km2, and 0.10 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[Stephan]

Thanks gerontocrat for the updates, tables and graphs! 
At the moment it seems that 2019 daily losses follow the path of 2016. The next two weeks will reveal whether 2019 can keep up with the extraordinary losses of 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 15,955,855 km2（November 8, 2019）

- 2019 2nd lowest (just) in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 740 k, and 841 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 109 k, 16 k more than the last 10 years' average of 93 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.39 million km2, 0.32 million (15.3%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.07 million km2 by this day.
- 13.0 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 104 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.07 million km2, and 0.08 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 15,828,374 km2（November 9, 2019）

- 2019 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 836 k, and 779 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 127 k, 35 k more than the last 10 years' average of 92 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.52 million km2, 0.34 million (15.8%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.18 million km2 by this day.
- 13.6 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 103 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.05 million km2, 0.11 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 15,632,294 km2（November 10, 2019）

- 2019 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 963 k, and 871 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 196 k, 88 k more than the last 10 years' average of 108 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.72 million km2, 0.43 million (19.0%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.29 million km2 by this day.
- 14.3 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 102 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 15,442,675 km2（November 11, 2019）

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,074 k, and 64 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 190 k, 61 k more than the last 10 years' average of 129 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.90 million km2, 0.49 million (20.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.41 million km2 by this day.
- 15.1 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 101 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.88 million km2, 0.26 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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This early melt at this time (40 days before the southern summer solstice) will have the maximum impact on increasing the AWP in the southern ocean.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 14,981,034 km2（November 15, 2019）

In November, daily sea ice extent loss mostly at or above average until this day

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,133 k, and 1,009 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on this day 70 k, 63 k less than the last 10 years' average of 133 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.37 million km2, 0.44 million (15%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.93 million km2 by this day.
- 18.3 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 97 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 14,382,143 km2（November 20, 2019）

- 2019 is down from 2nd to 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,155 k, and 922 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on this day 163 k, 21 k more than the last 10 years' average of 121 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.97 million km2, 0.38 million (10%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 3.60 million km2 by this day.
- 22.5 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 92 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still rather early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.01 million km2, 0.14 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[Stephan]

It seems obvious now that 2019 will not follow that extraordinary year 2016, but does closely follow 2017 and 2018.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 13,911,151 km2（November 23, 2019）

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,168 k, and 941 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on this day 154 k, 23 k more than the last 10 years' average of 131 k,
- Extent loss to date 4.44 million km2, 0.45 million (11%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 3.99 million km2 by this day.
- 25.0 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 89 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still rather early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 13,153,027 km2（November 28, 2019）

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 121 k, 44 k less than the last 10 years' average of 166 k,
- Extent loss to date 5.19 million km2, 0.45 million (9.5%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 4.74 million km2 by this day.
- 29.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 84 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.93 million km2, 0.22 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 12,508,624 km2（December 2, 2019）

- 2019 is 4th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 170 k, 18 k less than the last 10 years' average of 188 k,
- Extent loss to date 5.84 million km2, 0.39 million (7.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 5.45 million km2 by this day.
- 34.2 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 84 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.00 million km2, 0.15 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 12,261,662 km2（December 3, 2019）

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 247 k, 62 k more than the last 10 years' average of 185 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.09 million km2, 0.45 million (8.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 5.64 million km2 by this day.
- 35.3 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 79 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 12,008,820 km2（December 4, 2019）

A second double century extent loss on this day
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 253 k, 48 k more than the last 10 years' average of 205 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.34 million km2, 0.50 million (8.6%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 5.84 million km2 by this day.
- 36.6 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 78 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.89 million km2, 0.26 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,767,601 km2（December 5, 2019）

A third double century extent loss on this day
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 241 k, 56 k more than the last 10 years' average of 185 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.58 million km2, 0.57 million (9.5%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 6.01 million km2 by this day.
- 37.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 77 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.83 million km2, 0.31 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,073,060 km2（December 8, 2019）

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 274 k, 70 k more than the last 10 years' average of 204 k,
- Extent loss to date 77 million km2, 0.71 million (10.8%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 6.56 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,097 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 36 k more than 1982 on this day,

- 41.1% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 74 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.68 million km2, 0.46 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which would be astonishing.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,478,488 km2（December 10, 2019）

A triple century extent loss is unusual, though not rare at this brief period of maximum extent loss
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 310 k, 61 k more than the last 10 years' average of 249 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.87 million km2, 0.87 million (12.4%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 7.00 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,080 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 503 k less than 2018 on this day,

- 44.0% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 72 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.56 million km2, 0.59 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which would be more than astonishing.
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[lurkalot]

Shouldn't the legend for the pink line on your latest Ant2.png be 2016/7 not 2012/3?

[PragmaticAntithesis]

It's notable that 2016 had a lot of below average losses in the coming month, allowing minimum extent to remain reasonably close to other years. Could the 2019-2020 freezing season embark on the same path and not smash the records?

[gerontocrat]

Shouldn't the legend for the pink line on your latest Ant2.png be 2016/7 not 2012/3?

Well spotted, that man.

There is me, trying to rationalise my web of spreadsheets, so a couple of entries tells them to show two years during the transition, and then switch back in early 2020, and change all the dates to the new year.

The inevitable price of developing spreadsheets like topsy (i.e. they just growed). There will be more gremlins, I am sure. Half the time I have forgotten how I did the algorithms.

Corrected.

[gerontocrat]

It's notable that 2016 had a lot of below average losses in the coming month, allowing minimum extent to remain reasonably close to other years. Could the 2019-2020 freezing season embark on the same path and not smash the records?

That is a very possible outcome - though my guess is for a record low, but not by much.