Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,188,659 km2（October 8, 2019）

Extent dithered around the maximum and the melt season is very slow in getting under way. Perhaps the recent and ongoing Southern  SSW has had an effect?

- 2019 is still 5th lowest in the satellite record since 2002 (but not by much),
- Extent is above 2018, 2017, 2016, & 2008,
- Extent decrease on this day 8 k, 31 k less than the average extent loss (last 10 years) of 39 k on this day,
- Extent loss to date 0.16 million km2, 0.19 million (55%) less than the 10 year average of 0.35 million km2 by this day.
- 2.2% of the season done, with on average 135 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.48 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,153,837 km2（October 9, 2019）

For a changeextent loss greater than average on this day

- 2019 is still 5th lowest in the satellite record since 2002,
- Extent is above 2018, 2017, 2016, & 2008,
- Extent decrease on this day 35 k, 10 k less than the average extent loss (last 10 years) of 25 k on this day,
- Extent loss to date 0.19 million km2, 0.19 million (50%) less than the 10 year average of 0.38 million km2 by this day.
- 2.4% of the season done, with on average 134 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002.
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[gerontocrat]

The University of Bremen image shows a lot of 50% sea ice. I think the extent data disguises the degree of meting to date.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,136,162 km2（October 13, 2019）

Extent loss has stalled in the last three days - to the extent of a net increase in extent

- 2019 is 6th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, but 13th since 1987
- Extent is below the 1980's average by a mere 32k, and oly 84 k below the 990's average
- Extent increase in the last 3 days 12 k, compared with average extent loss (last 10 years) of 132 k in these 3 days,
- Extent loss to date 0.21 million km2, 0.32 million (60%) less than the 10 year average of 0.53 million km2 by this day.
- 3.3% of the season done, with on average 130 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.61 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002.

i.e. the Antarctic melting season has not got going. What a contrast with the Arctic
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,976,906 km2（October 17, 2019）

Extent loss stalled for another three days - but on this extent loss well below average. Just maybe the melt season is getting underway at last.

- 2019 is 6th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, but 14th lowest for the years since 1987,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by a mere 61k, and 127 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 74 k, 16 k les than the last 10 years' average of 58k,
- Extent loss to date 0.33 million km2, 0.29 million (47.1%) less than the 10 year average of 0.70 million km2 by this day.
- 4.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 126 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.62 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002 and 0.47 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,744,356 km2（October 21, 2019）

Extent loss well below average on this day & for 4 of the last 5 days. Just maybe the melt season is getting underway at last.

- 2019 up to 4th lowest from 6th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 10th from 14th lowest for the years since 1987,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 129 k, and 109 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 79 k, 32 k less than the last 10 years' average of 46 k,
- Extent loss to date 0.60 million km2, 0.26 million (30.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.86 million km2 by this day.
- 5.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 122 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.57 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002 and 0.43 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,456,855 km2（October 25, 2019）

Extent loss well below above average on this day and for most of the last week or so. The melt season is underway at last.

- 2019 up to 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 8th lowest for the years since 1987,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 229 k, and 137 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 100 k, 43 k more than the last 10 years' average of 57 k,
- Extent loss to date 0.89 million km2, 0.17 million (16%) less than the 10 year average of 1.06 million km2 by this day.
- 6.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 118 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.51 million km2, 6th lowest since 2002 and 0.36 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,108,909 km2（October 29, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so, and on this day the first century break of the season.
The melt season is properly underway.

- 2019 up to 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 10th lowest for the years since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 324 k, and 225 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 104 k, 43 k more than the last 10 years' average of 57 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.24 million km2, 0.06 million (5%) less than the 10 year average of 1.30 million km2 by this day.
- 8.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 114 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.42 million km2, 5th lowest since 2002 and 0.27 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,988,192 km2（October 31, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so

- 2019 up 4th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 10th lowest for the years since 1979, but the 2011 data for these few days looks a bit odd.
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 308 k, and 247 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 53 k, 11 k more than the last 10 years' average of 42 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.36 million km2, 0.06 million (4.2%) less than the 10 year average of 1.42 million km2 by this day.
- 8.9% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 112 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.42 million km2, 5th lowest since 2002 and 0.27 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,796,070 km2（November 2, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so increasing to a century break on this day

- 2019 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 9th lowest for the years since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 360 k, and 299 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 119 k, 42 k more than the last 10 years' average of 77 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.55 million km2, 0.03 million (2.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.52 million km2 by this day.
- 9.5% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 110 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.34 million km2, 4th lowest since 2002 and 0.20 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,652,131 km2（November 3, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so increasing to a 2nd century break in a row on this day

- 2019 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 7th lowest for the years since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 428 k, and 364 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 144 k, 49 k more than the last 10 years' average of 95 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.70 million km2, 0.09 million (5.9%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.61 million km2 by this day.
- 10.1 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 109 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.29 million km2, 3rd lowest since 2002 and 0.15 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,493,884 km2（November 4, 2019）

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so increasing to a 3rd century break in a row on this day

- 2019 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 4th lowest for the years since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 521 k, and 472 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 158 k, 47 k more than the last 10 years' average of 111 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.85 million km2, 0.14 million (7.9%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.72 million km2 by this day.
- 10.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 108 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.25 million km2, 3rd lowest since 2002 and 0.10 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,296,365 km2（November 5, 2019）

I am posting every day while these very high extent losses continue.

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so increasing to a 4th century break in a row on this day, on this day nearly a double century

- 2019 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 652 k, and 618 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 198 k, 121 k more than the last 10 years' average of 77 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.05 million km2, 0.26 million (14.7%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.79 million km2 by this day.
- 11.2 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 107 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.13 million km2, and 0.02 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[blumenkraft]

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,137,172 km2（November 6, 2019）

I am posting every day while these very high extent losses continue.

Extent loss above average for most of the last 2 weeks or so with a 5th century break in a row on this day.

- 2019 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 737 k, and 716 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 159 k, 75 k more than the last 10 years' average of 84 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.21 million km2, 0.35 million (19.6%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 1.86 million km2 by this day.
- 11.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 106 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.05 million km2, and 0.10 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[Stephan]

Thanks gerontocrat for the updates, tables and graphs! 
At the moment it seems that 2019 daily losses follow the path of 2016. The next two weeks will reveal whether 2019 can keep up with the extraordinary losses of 2016.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 15,955,855 km2（November 8, 2019）

- 2019 2nd lowest (just) in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 740 k, and 841 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 109 k, 16 k more than the last 10 years' average of 93 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.39 million km2, 0.32 million (15.3%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.07 million km2 by this day.
- 13.0 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 104 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.07 million km2, and 0.08 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 15,828,374 km2（November 9, 2019）

- 2019 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 836 k, and 779 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 127 k, 35 k more than the last 10 years' average of 92 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.52 million km2, 0.34 million (15.8%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.18 million km2 by this day.
- 13.6 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 103 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.05 million km2, 0.11 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 15,632,294 km2（November 10, 2019）

- 2019 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 963 k, and 871 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 196 k, 88 k more than the last 10 years' average of 108 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.72 million km2, 0.43 million (19.0%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.29 million km2 by this day.
- 14.3 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 102 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 15,442,675 km2（November 11, 2019）

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,074 k, and 64 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 190 k, 61 k more than the last 10 years' average of 129 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.90 million km2, 0.49 million (20.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.41 million km2 by this day.
- 15.1 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 101 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.88 million km2, 0.26 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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This early melt at this time (40 days before the southern summer solstice) will have the maximum impact on increasing the AWP in the southern ocean.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 14,981,034 km2（November 15, 2019）

In November, daily sea ice extent loss mostly at or above average until this day

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,133 k, and 1,009 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on this day 70 k, 63 k less than the last 10 years' average of 133 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.37 million km2, 0.44 million (15%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.93 million km2 by this day.
- 18.3 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 97 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 14,382,143 km2（November 20, 2019）

- 2019 is down from 2nd to 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,155 k, and 922 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on this day 163 k, 21 k more than the last 10 years' average of 121 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.97 million km2, 0.38 million (10%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 3.60 million km2 by this day.
- 22.5 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 92 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still rather early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.01 million km2, 0.14 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[Stephan]

It seems obvious now that 2019 will not follow that extraordinary year 2016, but does closely follow 2017 and 2018.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 13,911,151 km2（November 23, 2019）

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,168 k, and 941 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on this day 154 k, 23 k more than the last 10 years' average of 131 k,
- Extent loss to date 4.44 million km2, 0.45 million (11%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 3.99 million km2 by this day.
- 25.0 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 89 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still rather early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 13,153,027 km2（November 28, 2019）

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 121 k, 44 k less than the last 10 years' average of 166 k,
- Extent loss to date 5.19 million km2, 0.45 million (9.5%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 4.74 million km2 by this day.
- 29.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 84 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.93 million km2, 0.22 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 12,508,624 km2（December 2, 2019）

- 2019 is 4th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 170 k, 18 k less than the last 10 years' average of 188 k,
- Extent loss to date 5.84 million km2, 0.39 million (7.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 5.45 million km2 by this day.
- 34.2 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 84 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.00 million km2, 0.15 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 12,261,662 km2（December 3, 2019）

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 247 k, 62 k more than the last 10 years' average of 185 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.09 million km2, 0.45 million (8.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 5.64 million km2 by this day.
- 35.3 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 79 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 12,008,820 km2（December 4, 2019）

A second double century extent loss on this day
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 253 k, 48 k more than the last 10 years' average of 205 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.34 million km2, 0.50 million (8.6%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 5.84 million km2 by this day.
- 36.6 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 78 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.89 million km2, 0.26 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,767,601 km2（December 5, 2019）

A third double century extent loss on this day
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 241 k, 56 k more than the last 10 years' average of 185 k,
- Extent loss to date 6.58 million km2, 0.57 million (9.5%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 6.01 million km2 by this day.
- 37.7 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 77 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.83 million km2, 0.31 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,073,060 km2（December 8, 2019）

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 274 k, 70 k more than the last 10 years' average of 204 k,
- Extent loss to date 77 million km2, 0.71 million (10.8%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 6.56 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,097 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 36 k more than 1982 on this day,

- 41.1% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 74 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.68 million km2, 0.46 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which would be astonishing.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,478,488 km2（December 10, 2019）

A triple century extent loss is unusual, though not rare at this brief period of maximum extent loss
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 310 k, 61 k more than the last 10 years' average of 249 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.87 million km2, 0.87 million (12.4%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 7.00 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,080 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 503 k less than 2018 on this day,

- 44.0% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 72 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.56 million km2, 0.59 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which would be more than astonishing.
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[lurkalot]

Shouldn't the legend for the pink line on your latest Ant2.png be 2016/7 not 2012/3?

[PragmaticAntithesis]

It's notable that 2016 had a lot of below average losses in the coming month, allowing minimum extent to remain reasonably close to other years. Could the 2019-2020 freezing season embark on the same path and not smash the records?

[gerontocrat]

Shouldn't the legend for the pink line on your latest Ant2.png be 2016/7 not 2012/3?

Well spotted, that man.

There is me, trying to rationalise my web of spreadsheets, so a couple of entries tells them to show two years during the transition, and then switch back in early 2020, and change all the dates to the new year.

The inevitable price of developing spreadsheets like topsy (i.e. they just growed). There will be more gremlins, I am sure. Half the time I have forgotten how I did the algorithms.

Corrected.

[gerontocrat]

It's notable that 2016 had a lot of below average losses in the coming month, allowing minimum extent to remain reasonably close to other years. Could the 2019-2020 freezing season embark on the same path and not smash the records?

That is a very possible outcome - though my guess is for a record low, but not by much.

[Stephan]

Thank you gerontocrat for keeping us updated.
A little note on the "projected minimum": If the above average ice losses continue the resulting minimum for the entry 2010/2011 will become negative.
We are on a bad track concerning sea ice area and extent.

[gerontocrat]

Thank you gerontocrat for keeping us updated.
A little note on the "projected minimum": If the above average ice losses continue the resulting minimum for the entry 2010/2011 will become negative.
We are on a bad track concerning sea ice area and extent.

That a projection produces a nonsense it has not shown before, such as a -ve extent, shows the spreadsheet has its limitations.

It will be interesting to see how long the -ve value persists. Not long, I suspect.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,978,061 km2（December 12, 2019）

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 259 k, 46 k more than the last 10 years' average of 214 k,
- Extent loss to date 8.37 million km2, 0.93 million (12.6%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 7.44 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,208 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 430 k less than 2018 on this day,

- 46.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 70 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.52 million km2, 0.63 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which would be more than astonishing.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,127,094 km2（December 16, 2019）

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 193 k, 25 k less than the last 10 years' average of 218 k,
- Extent loss to date 9.22 million km2, 0.95 million (11.5%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 8.27 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,246 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 153 k less than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 79 k more than 1979 on this day,

- 52.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 66 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.54 million km2, 0.61 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which is unlikely.
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[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,949,169 km2（December 21, 2019）

- 2019 is 4th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 265 k, 35 k less than the last 10 years' average of 230 k,
- Extent loss to date 10.40 million km2, 1.03 million (11.0%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 9.37 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 941 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 256 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 430 k more than 1979**on this day,

- 59.3% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 61 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.52 million km2, 0.63 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which is very unlikely.

Mind you, I did read one (and only one) comment on the recent Antarctic SSW that is giving an extra impetus to Australia's fire season that suggested the SSW could encourage sea ice melt in January and February.
______________________________________________________________
** Yes, 1979. 1979-1980 was a very low extent year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 76,903,970 km2（December 26, 2019）

- 2019 is 5th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 138 k, 53 k less than the last 10 years' average of 191 k,
- Extent loss to date 11.44 million km2, 0.95 million (9.1%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 10.49 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 772 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 644 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 140 k more than 2005 on this day,
- Extent is 346 k more than 1979**on this day,

- 66.5% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 53 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.61 million km2, 0.53 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which is very unlikely.

Mind you, I did read one (and only one) comment on the recent Antarctic SSW that is giving an extra impetus to Australia's fire season that suggested the SSW could encourage sea ice melt in January and February.

However, at the moment extent losses have become very much below average.
______________________________________________________________
** Yes, 1979. 1979-1980 was a very low extent year.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,357,201 km2（December 30, 2019）

- 2019 is 6th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 163 k, 48 k less than the last 10 years' average of 210 k,
- Extent loss to date 11.99 million km2, 0.66 million (5.9%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 11.33 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 670 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 740 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 196 k more than 2005 on this day,
- Extent is 13 k more than 1996on this day,
- Extent is 206 k more than 1979on this day,

- 71.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 52 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.86 million km2, 0.29 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.

I read one (and only one) comment on the recent Antarctic SSW that is giving an extra impetus to Australia's fire season that suggested the SSW could encourage sea ice melt in January and February.

However, at the moment extent losses have become very much below average.
______________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  5,966,632 km2（January 2, 2020）

- 2019 is 6th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 102 k, 73 k less than the last 10 years' average of 175k,
- Extent loss to date 12.38 million km2, 0.52 million (4.4%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 11.86 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 743 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 851 k more than 2019 on this day,
- Extent is 317 k more than 2006 on this day,
- Extent is 61 k more than 1997on this day,
- Extent is 56 k more than 1980on this day,

- 75.0% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 49 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.00 million km2, 0.15 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.

I read one (and only one) comment on the recent Antarctic SSW that is giving an extra impetus to Australia's fire season that suggested the SSW could encourage sea ice melt in January and February.

However, at the moment extent losses have become very much below average.
______________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  5,363,378 km2（January 7, 2020）

From the 24th December until this day extent losses have been well below average.

- 2019 is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 160 k, 11 k MORE than the last 10 years' average of 149k,
- Extent loss to date 12.98 million km2, 0.34 million (12.7%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 12.64 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 532 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 880 k more than 2019 on this day,
- Extent is 641 k more than 2006 on this day,
- Extent is 389 k more than 1997 on this day,
- Extent is 313 k more than 1981 on this day,

- 79.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 44 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.17 million km2, 0.02 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,839,647 km2（January 11, 2020）

From the 24th December until this day daily extent losses have been well below average on almost every day.

- 2019 is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 149 k, 12 k less than the last 10 years' average of 161k,
- Extent loss to date 13.51 million km2, 0.25 million (1.9%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 13.26 million km2 by this day.

- Extent is 588 k more than 2006 on this day,
- Extent is 572 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 196 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 811 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 5 other years in the 1980's and 1990's on this day,

- 83.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 40 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.25 million km2, 0.10 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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[Stephan]

My best guess for the next week(s) is that the decrease of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent will be slightly above average. If you look at Climate Reanalyzer almost everywhere around Antarctica the sea  surface temperature is slightly above average along the sea ice edge. I wouldn't even be surprised if we have a late minimum this year.

[gerontocrat]

Slowing of sea ice loss in late season - a speculation

In several of the posts by AbruptSLR are references to a process whereby increased surface melt melt on the ice shelves and marine terminating glaciers are/will cause an increased influx of freshwater at near freezing temperatures into the near-shore surrounding ocean, and it will form a layer that inhibits freezing / melting.

My speculation that belongs to me is that we are seeing this in the melting season pattern in the last 4-5 years since the extraordinary events of 2016.

If you look at the first image - the graph, you will see that in the previous 4 years and the current year melting in the early pat of the season until November is well above the average for the 5 years before that. This seems logical as AGW and warmer seas cause a quick melt of the thinner sea ice at lower latitudes.

But as the sea ice edge moves south closer to the continent, sea ice loss slows to below the average of 5 to 10 years ago, and is very pronounced in 2019-20 data. By December 24th, sea ice loss was 1 million km2 above average. On January 11th, just 0.25 million km2 above the average for the year. i.e. Sea ice loss from Dec 24th to January 11th was 0.75 million below average.

If you look at the surface ice melt on the graph and map attached, you will see that this has been at record levels this year, starting in November. Much of this melt of very cold freshwater at the continent's edge will have exited to the ocean. Has this significantly slowed further sea ice loss?

AbrupSLR has highlighted research that suggests that rather than being a -ve feedback, the result is to trap incoming deeper warmer water to well below the ocean surface, and thus can attack the ice shelves and marine terminating glaciers from beneath.

What I hope to do is get the regional data file from Wipneus's database and compare the sea ice loss trends in the individual regional seas with the surface ice melt on the map. I don't suppose the model used gives data by these regional seas?

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Oh, that's interesting. As freshwater has a much higher freezing point than saltwater, and its less dense (so stays on the surface), a freshening of the water would lead to much higher sea ice extent (enough higher to overpower the effects of AGW!).

I wonder if this trend will continue as glaciers melt more rapidly.

[gerontocrat]

Oh, that's interesting. As freshwater has a much higher freezing point than saltwater, and its less dense (so stays on the surface), a freshening of the water would lead to much higher sea ice extent (enough higher to overpower the effects of AGW!).

I wonder if this trend will continue as glaciers melt more rapidly.

The surface melt is in addition to the influx of freshwater from sub-surface melting of the ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers which is increased if the surface is covered in a layer of cold freshwater i.e. a classic feedback mechanism.

A battle between warmth moving south towards Antarctica and cold freshwater spreading north across the surface of the Antarctic Ocean?

Some links and extracts

https://www.carbonbrief.org/melting-antarctic-ice-could-slow-global-temperature-rise-study
Cold meltwater running off Antarctica’s ice sheets and into the ocean could dampen the pace of global temperature rise, a new study suggests.

The research, published in Nature, finds that the rate of ice-sheet melt in a high-emissions scenario could see the oceans cooled by the influx of frigid water. This could knock as much as 0.4C off global temperature rise, the researchers say, potentially delaying exceeding the 1.5C and 2C Paris temperature limits by around a decade.

However, the study adds that the meltwater could have wider impacts on the Earth’s climate, increasing the formation of Antarctic sea ice, reducing rainfall in the southern hemisphere and increasing rainfall in the northern hemisphere. It could also cause warming of the ocean beneath the surface layer around the Antarctic coast, the researchers add, leading to further ice-sheet melt and additional sea level rise.

Scientists not involved in the research tell Carbon Brief that while the results are intriguing, some caution is warranted given that the study relies on a single climate model. It also uses a speculative ice-melt scenario and focuses on a region – the Southern Ocean and Antarctica – which climate models can struggle to simulate accurately.

Additional work, including running similar simulations using other climate models and including the impact of meltwater from Greenland, may provide a more complete picture of the climate impacts of melting ice sheets, the scientists note.

Adding Antarctic meltwater to climate models
While climate models seek to include various different elements of the Earth’s systems, many are still limited in their modeling of changes in global ice sheets. While models include the role of ice melt on global sea level rise, they generally do not include the impact of the effect of meltwater from ice sheets and ice shelves on the climate

The broader climate impacts of ice-sheet and ice-shelf melt are not included in the current generation of climate models – CMIP5 – and are not expected to be accounted for in the upcoming CMIP6 models either.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30455421/
Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater

Meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to cause up to one metre of sea-level rise by 2100 under the highest greenhouse gas concentration trajectory (RCP8.5) considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the effects of meltwater from the ice sheets and ice shelves of Antarctica are not included in the widely used CMIP5 climate models, which introduces bias into IPCC climate projections. Here we assess a large ensemble simulation of the CMIP5 model ‘GFDL ESM2M’ that accounts for RCP8.5-projected Antarctic Ice Sheet meltwater. We find that, relative to the standard RCP8.5 scenario, accounting for meltwater delays the exceedance of the maximum global-mean atmospheric warming targets of 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius by more than a decade, enhances drying of the Southern Hemisphere and reduces drying of the Northern Hemisphere, increases the formation of Antarctic sea ice (consistent with recent observations of increasing Antarctic sea-ice area) and warms the subsurface ocean around the Antarctic coast. Moreover, the meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming could lead to further ice-sheet and ice-shelf melting through a positive feedback mechanism, highlighting the importance of including meltwater effects in simulations of future climate.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/annals-of-glaciology/article/effect-of-increased-fresh-water-from-antarctic-ice-shelves-on-future-trends-in-antarctic-sea-ice/3F0B83DB48A15767F77340ED0796AC66
The effect of increased fresh water from Antarctic ice shelves on future trends in Antarctic sea ice

Observations show that, in contrast to the Arctic, the area of Antarctic sea ice has increased since 1979. A potential driver of this significant increase relates to the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet. Subsurface ocean warming causes basal ice-shelf melt, freshening the surface waters around Antarctica, which leads to increases in sea-ice cover. With climate warming ongoing, future mass-loss rates are projected to accelerate, which has the potential to affect future Antarctic sea-ice trends. Here we investigate to what extent future sea-ice trends are influenced by projected increases in Antarctic freshwater flux due to subsurface melt, using a state-of-the-art global climate model (EC-Earth) in standardized Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate-change simulations. Virtually all CMIP5 models disregard ocean–ice-sheet interactions and project strongly retreating Antarctic sea ice. Applying various freshwater flux scenarios, we find that the additional fresh water significantly offsets the decline in sea-ice area and is even able to reverse the trend in the strongest freshwater forcing scenario that can reasonably be expected, especially in austral winter. The model also simulates decreasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with the SST trends exhibiting strong regional variations that largely correspond to regional sea-ice trends.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,302,765 km2（January 16, 2020）

From the 24th December until this day daily extent losses have been well below average on almost every day.

- 2019 is 10 13th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 96 k, 21 k less than the last 10 years' average of 117k,
- Extent loss to date 14.04 million km2, 0.09 million (0.6%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 13.95 million km2 by this day.

- Extent is 553 k more than 2006 on this day,
- Extent is 788 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 318 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 672 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 6 other years in the 1980's and 1990's on this day,

- 87.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 35 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.37 million km2, 0.22 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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