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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1350 on: January 17, 2020, 01:20:13 PM »
UPDATE - Slowing of sea ice loss in late season - a speculation

In several of the posts by AbruptSLR are references to a process whereby increased surface and sub-surface melt on the ice shelves and marine terminating glaciers are/will cause an increased influx of freshwater at near freezing temperatures into the near-shore surrounding ocean, and it will form a layer that inhibits freezing / melting.

My speculation that belongs to me is that we are seeing this in the melting season pattern in the last 4-5 years since the extraordinary events of 2016, and even more so this year due to record high surface melting along much of the coastal fringe of Antarctica.

If you look at the first image - the graph, you will see that in the previous 4 years and the current year melting in the early part of the season until November is well above the average for the 5 years before that. This seems logical as AGW and warmer seas cause a quick melt of the thinner sea ice at lower latitudes.

But as the sea ice edge moves south closer to the continent, sea ice loss slows to below the average of 5 to 10 years ago, and is very pronounced in 2019-20 data. By December 24th, sea ice loss was 1 million km2 above average. On January 16th, just under 0.1 million km2 above the average for the year. i.e. Sea ice loss from Dec 24th to January 19th was 0.9 million below average.

If you look at the surface ice melt on the graph and map attached, you will see that this has been at record levels this year, starting in November. Much of this melt of very cold freshwater at the continent's edge will have exited to the ocean. Has this significantly slowed further sea ice loss?

AbrupSLR has highlighted research that suggests that rather than being a -ve feedback, the result (including subsurface melt) is to trap incoming deeper warmer water to well below the ocean surface, and thus can attack the ice shelves and marine terminating glaciers from beneath. There are science papers - see previous posts - that suggest this could lead to significantly increased ice mass loss and thus accelerated sea level rise.

i.e.
The possible recovery in sea ice extent (good?) could be a +ve feedback to accelerated sea level rise (bad)

One might see a confrontation in the Southern Ocean between cooling at high latitudes and warmth heading south from lower latitudes


Surface melt link....
http://climato.be/cms/index.php?climato=the-2020-melt-season-over-antarctica-as-simulated-by-marv3-10
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kassy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1351 on: January 17, 2020, 02:34:34 PM »
Interesting idea.

How far back in years can you calculate the polynomials?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1352 on: January 17, 2020, 09:01:22 PM »
Interesting idea.

How far back in years can you calculate the polynomials?
Without too much effort I can add the 2000s, 1990's and 1980's  10 year daily change averages.
Might make the graph look very crowded.

But tomorrow is another day
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1353 on: January 18, 2020, 08:42:20 PM »
Interesting idea.

How far back in years can you calculate the polynomials?
Without too much effort I can add the 2000s, 1990's and 1980's  10 year daily change averages.
Might make the graph look very crowded.

But tomorrow is another day
I added the 2000's 10 year daily change averages to the graph. Basically the same result. There is a difference in extent loss at the beginning/middle and the last part of the melting season in the last 5 years, especially this year. But could be a temporary change. I'll look at it again in early 2021 if the technology (and me) holds out until then..

Meanwhile, maybe a peek at any pattern change in extent gains to maximum would be a good idea. Tomorrow is another day.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1354 on: January 21, 2020, 11:36:35 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  3,914,464 km2(January 20, 2020)

From the 24th December until this day daily extent losses have been well below average on almost every day.

- 2019 is 12th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 93 k, 6 k less than the last 10 years' average of 99k,
- Extent loss to date 14.43 million km2, 0.02 million (0.1%) LESS than the 10 year average of 14.45 million km2 by this day.

- Extent is 536 k more than 2006 on this day,
- Extent is 752 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 329 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 533 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 5 other years in the 1980's and 1990's on this day,

- 90.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 31 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.45 million km2, 0.30 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1355 on: January 24, 2020, 01:32:38 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  3,775,153 km2(January 23, 2020)

From the 24th December until this day daily extent losses have been well below average on almost every day. I think one month is long enough to call this an event.

- 2019 is 15th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 53 k, 25 k less than the last 10 years' average of 78k,
- Extent loss to date 14.57 million km2, 0.18 million (1.2%) LESS than the 10 year average of 14.75 million km2 by this day.

- Extent is 583 k more than 2006 on this day,
- Extent is 851 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 490 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 550k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 6 other years in the 1980's and 1990's on this day,

- 92.5% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 28 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.58 million km2, 0.43 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1356 on: January 24, 2020, 01:55:35 PM »
UPDATE 23 January 2020 - Slowing of sea ice loss in late season - a speculation (continued)

Several science papers suggest a process whereby increased surface and sub-surface melt on the ice shelves and marine terminating glaciers are/will cause an increased influx of freshwater at near freezing temperatures into the near-shore surrounding ocean, and it will form a layer that inhibits freezing / melting. That also traps relatively warmer water at depth thereby increasing melt at depth of ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers.

My speculation that belongs to me is that we are seeing this in the melting season pattern in the last 4-5 years since the extraordinary events of 2016, and even more so this year due to record high surface melting along much of the coastal fringe of Antarctica.

If you look at the first image - the graph, you will see that in the previous 4 years and the current year melting in the early part of the season until November is well above the average for the 5 years before that. This seems logical as AGW and warmer seas cause a quick melt of the thinner sea ice at lower latitudes.

But as the sea ice edge moves south closer to the continent, sea ice loss slows to below the average of 5 to 10 years ago, and is very pronounced in 2019-20 data. By December 24th, sea ice loss was 1 million km2 above average. On January 23rd, just under 0.2 million km2 above the average for the year. i.e. Sea ice loss from Dec 24th to January 23 was 1.2 million below average.

If you look at the surface ice melt on the graph and map attached, you will see that this has been at record levels this year, starting in November. Much of this melt of very cold freshwater at the continent's edge will have exited to the ocean. Has this significantly slowed further sea ice loss?

If you compare where surface melt has been high with NSIDC's image of Antractic Sea Ice, you will see some correlation between where surface melt has been highest and where sea ice extent is at or above the 1981 to 2010 average.

The possible recovery in sea ice extent (good?) could be a +ve feedback to accelerated sea level rise (bad)

One might see a confrontation in the Southern Ocean between cooling at high latitudes and warmth heading south from lower latitudes


Surface melt link....
http://climato.be/cms/index.php?climato=the-2020-melt-season-over-antarctica-as-simulated-by-marv3-10
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1357 on: January 28, 2020, 11:22:29 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  3,531,504 km2(January 27, 2020)

From the 24th December until this day daily extent losses have been well below average on almost every day. (Extent loss in this period 24th Dec to this day just over 1.25 million less than the average.) I think 5 weeks is long enough to call this an event.

- 2019 is 14th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 75 k, 4 k MORE than the last 10 years' average of 71k,
- Extent loss to date 14.82 million km2, 0.24 million (1.6%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.06 million km2 by this day.

- Extent is 553 k more than 2006 on this day,
- Extent is 904 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 529k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 477k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 5 other years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 94.3% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 24 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.62 million km2, 0.47 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________
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roger white

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1358 on: January 31, 2020, 08:00:31 AM »
So, sea ice extent in the antarctic has remained pretty  much the same over the past 40 years.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1359 on: February 01, 2020, 03:13:53 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  3,355,358 km2(January 31, 2020)

From the 24th December until this day daily extent losses have been well below average on almost every day. (Extent loss in this period 24th Dec to this day just over 1.3 million less than the average.) I think 40 days is long enough to call this an event.

- 2019 is 14th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 41 k, 11 k LESS than the last 10 years' average of 52k,
- Extent loss to date 14.99 million km2, 0.33 million (2.2%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.32 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 906 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 574k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 437k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 5 other years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 95.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 20 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.68 million km2, 0.54 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1360 on: February 01, 2020, 03:21:02 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  January 2020 Average Extent 4,473,583 km2

The 41 Year Linear Trend of January Average extent is just about zero, as is the R2 coefficient.

The deviations from that trend do show, however, the massive gain in extent 2015 and massive loss in 2017, which is now declining.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1361 on: February 01, 2020, 07:10:32 PM »
UPDATE 31 January 2020 - Slowing of sea ice loss in late season - a speculation (continued)

In which I continue attaching graphs to support my speculation that belongs to me that we are seeing that surface melting can add to the effect of sub-surface melting in creating a cold water layer around Antarctica thus inhibiting sea ice loss at the end of the melting season,  evidenced even more so this year due to record high surface melting along much of the coastal fringe of Antarctica.

Surface melt link....
http://climato.be/cms/index.php?climato=the-2020-melt-season-over-antarctica-as-simulated-by-marv3-10
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1362 on: February 04, 2020, 12:03:41 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,172,457 km2(February 3, 2020)

From the 24th December until 3 days ago daily extent losses were well below average on almost every day. (Extent loss in this period 24th Dec to this day just over 1.3 million less than the average.) I think 40 days is long enough to call this an event.

But in the last 3 days extent loss has been above average. Wil this continue? Who knows? Not I.

- 2019 is 14th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 55 k, 7 k MORE than the last 10 years' average of 48k,
- Extent loss to date 15.18 million km2, 0.30 million (1.9%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.48 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 790 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 562k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 304k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 5 other years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 96.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 17 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.63 million km2, 0.49 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1363 on: February 08, 2020, 12:49:35 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,041,809 km2(February 7, 2020)

Extent loss continues to be more below than above average.

- 2019 is 14th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 48 k, 5 k MORE than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 43k,
- Extent loss to date 15.31 million km2, 0.37 million (2.4%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.68 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 687 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 673 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 236 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 5 other years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 97.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 13 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.69 million km2, 0.54 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1364 on: February 11, 2020, 02:18:01 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,964,387 km2(February 10, 2020)

Extent loss continues to be more below than above average.

- 2019 is 16th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 48 k, 5 k MORE than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 43k,
- Extent loss to date 15.38 million km2, 0.41 million (2.6%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.79 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 709 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 621 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 219 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 7 other years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 98.5% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 10 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1365 on: February 13, 2020, 12:03:40 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,944,343 km2(February 12, 2020)

Extent loss continues to be more below than above average. I did not expect to write
- 2019 is 20th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,

- Extent loss on this day 9 k, 27 k less than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 36k,
- Extent loss to date 15.40 million km2, 0.46 million (2.9%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.86 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 717 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 627 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 296 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 10 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 98.9% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 8 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.77 million km2, 0.62 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________________________
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roger white

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1366 on: February 14, 2020, 11:01:55 AM »
Or to put it another way 2019 is the 20th highest sea ice in the satellite record.
With the 40 year record showing sea ice increasing in extent.
( 2010's more ice than 1980's).

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1367 on: February 14, 2020, 11:30:26 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,929,959 km2(February 13, 2020)

Extent loss continues to be below average.

- 2019 is 20th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 14 k, 18 k less than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 32k,
- Extent loss to date 15.42 million km2, 0.47 million (3.0%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.89 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 708 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 624 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 332 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 10 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.1% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 7 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.79 million km2, 0.64 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1368 on: February 15, 2020, 12:30:05 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,896,304 km2(February 14, 2020)

Extent loss continues to be below average - except on this day

- 2019 is 20th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 34 k, 5 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 29k,
- Extent loss to date 15.45 million km2, 0.48 million (3.0%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.93 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 669 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 598 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 308 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 10 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.3% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 6 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.78 million km2, 0.63 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1369 on: February 16, 2020, 02:22:31 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,868,673 km2(February 15, 2020)

- 2019 is 23rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 28 k, 11 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 17k,
- Extent loss to date 15.48 million km2, 0.47 million (2.9%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.95 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 638 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 563 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 292 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 12 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 5 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.77 million km2, 0.62 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1370 on: February 16, 2020, 04:02:37 PM »
- 2019 is 23rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
Which means that there are more years since 1979 with a lower sea ice extent than with a higher sea ice extent.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1371 on: February 17, 2020, 12:43:43 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,827,598 km2(February 16, 2020)

- 2019 is 20th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 41 k, 23 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 18k,
- Extent loss to date 15.52 million km2, 0.45 million (2.8%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.97 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 595 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 536 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 262 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 9 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.5% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 4 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.75 million km2, 0.60 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1372 on: February 17, 2020, 01:22:48 PM »
- 2019 is 23rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
Which means that there are more years since 1979 with a lower sea ice extent than with a higher sea ice extent.
Hullo Stephan,

If one looks at the minimum sea ice extent for 2020 and compare it with previous years' minima,the result is even ore extra-ordinary.

If the current day's extent is the 2020 minimum, then 2020 is the 29th lowest (12th highest) minimum in the satellite record, and if not for some later than average date extent losses, even lower.

click on the table and click again for a more readable table.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1373 on: February 18, 2020, 09:01:43 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,797,521 km2(February 17, 2020)

- 2019 is 19th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 30 k, 15 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 15k,
- Extent loss to date 15.55 million km2, 0.44 million (2.7%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.99 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 573 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 527 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 222 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 9 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 3 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.74 million km2, 0.59 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1374 on: February 19, 2020, 10:38:43 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,763,545 km2(February 18, 2020)

Sea ice extent has changed from 23rd lowest to 18th lowest in the last three days.

- 2019 is 18th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 34 k, 25 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 9k,
- Extent loss to date 15.58 million km2, 0.42 million (2.6%) LESS than the 10 year average of 16.00 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 564 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 523 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 187 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 9 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.7% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 2 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
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steve s

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1375 on: February 19, 2020, 05:11:16 PM »
Extent may be high, but concentration seems not to be. Wish we had yearly concentration-weighted sea ice extents to compare.

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1376 on: February 19, 2020, 06:46:31 PM »
I expect a further extent loss for another week at least.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1377 on: February 20, 2020, 03:23:30 AM »
   .   .   but it's freezing fast in the southern Weddell Sea   .    .   

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1378 on: February 20, 2020, 11:39:37 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,759,291 km2(February 19, 2020)

[/i]
- 2019 is 19th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 4 k, 6 k less than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 10k,
- Extent loss to date 15.59 million km2, 0.42 million (2.6%) LESS than the 10 year average of 16.01 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 566 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 551 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 224 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 10 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 1 day to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.73 million km2, 0.58 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1379 on: February 21, 2020, 11:29:33 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,759,291 km2(February 19, 2020)

It is possible that the minimum was reached on 19th February @  2,759,291 km2

- 2019 is 19th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 15 k, 17 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 2k,
- Extent loss to date 15.57 million km2, 0.44 million (2.7%) LESS than the 10 year average of 16.01 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 575 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 544 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 281 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 10 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 0 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.76 million km2, 0.61 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1380 on: February 23, 2020, 11:20:06 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,825,962 km2(February 22, 2020)

Given three days of sea ice extent increases I am assuming that the minimum was reached on 19th February @  2,759,291 km2. Another foolish hostage to fortune.

- 2019 is 24th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 34 k, 24 k more than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 10k,
- Extent gain to date 0.07 million km2, 0.01 million (8%) more than the 10 year average of 0.06 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 634 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 570 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 361 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 15 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 0.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 211 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.74 million km2, 0.68 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.

Look at the 1st Table (projections) ANT1 with a cwt. bag of salt.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2020, 11:30:22 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1381 on: February 23, 2020, 11:29:33 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- ASSUMING MINIMUM OF 2,759,291 km2 on February 19, 2020,

Given three days of sea ice extent increases I am assuming that the minimum was reached on 19th February @  2,759,291 km2. If so, that minimum was 29th lowest, 12th highest in the satellite record..
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1382 on: February 25, 2020, 11:09:16 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,842,849 km2(February 24, 2020)

- 2019 is 22nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 3 k, 7 k less than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 10k,
- Extent gain to date 0.08 million km2, 0.01 million (6.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.09 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 680 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 540 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 418 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 13 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 0.6% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 209 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.73 million km2, 0.67 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.

Look at the 1st Table (projections) ANT1 with a cwt. bag of salt.
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1383 on: February 25, 2020, 09:24:23 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,842,849 km2(February 24, 2020)

- 2019 is 22nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,


Do i overlook something, on first glance something doesn't fit but then perhaps I don't get it right ?

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1384 on: February 25, 2020, 09:35:29 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,842,849 km2(February 24, 2020)

- 2019 is 22nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,


Do i overlook something, on first glance something doesn't fit but then perhaps I don't get it right ?
The table (Ant3) only goes back to 2003. Extent is now so high that it is greater than a number of years back in the 1980's and 1990's. Shows a major recovery in Antarctic Sea Ice that may be a bad thing - a consequence of accelerated melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1385 on: February 26, 2020, 09:51:56 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,815,532 km2(February 25, 2020)

- 2019 is 18th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent decrease on this day 27 k, 47 k less than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 20k,
- Extent gain to date 0.06 million km2, 0.05 million (48%) less than the 10 year average of 0.11 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 647 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 511 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 373 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 12 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 0.7% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 208 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.68 million km2, 0.62 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1386 on: March 02, 2020, 04:27:28 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,780,405 km2(March 1, 2020)

In recent days extent has gradually fallen instead of increasing. As a result sea ice extent has changed from 24th lowest (22 Feb) to 12th lowest (1 March). The extent changes have been modest, showing how close many years extent data are at this time.

- 2019 is 12th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent decrease on this day 6 k, 32 k less than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 26k,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 0.02 million km2, 0.19 million (90%) less than the 10 year average of 0.21 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 633 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 328 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 284 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 6 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 1.3% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 203 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.55 million km2, 0.49 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1387 on: March 02, 2020, 06:32:37 PM »
Due to the latest small ice extent reductions the actual value is only 0.02 M km² above the minimum from Feb 19. If this continues for some further days a new minimum might be possible. It will be also one of the latest minimums since the satellite observation started in 1979, on March 02 tied with 1986 and 2017.
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1388 on: March 03, 2020, 10:07:18 PM »
There is probably no chance for a new Antarctic Sea Ice Extent minimum this fading austral summer.
Ross Sea is freezing over rapidly. Last week there was only open waters, now a lot of very fresh young ice is visible.

See attached picture from EOSDIS.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1389 on: March 04, 2020, 12:33:12 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,879,021 km2(March 3, 2020)

Sea ice extent increases in the last 2 days seem to confirm Stephan's conclusion that there will not be a surprise 2nd minimum this year.

- 2019 is 12th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 62 k, 17 k more than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 45 k,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 0.12 million km2, 0.17 million (58%) less than the 10 year average of 0.29 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 720 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 384 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 315 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 6 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 1.8% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 201 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.57 million km2, 0.51 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1390 on: March 06, 2020, 02:26:00 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,045,608 km2(March 5, 2020)

- 2019 is 14th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 106 k, 56 k more than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 50 k,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 0.29 million km2, 0.10 million (26%) less than the 10 year average of 0.39 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 859 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 415 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 463 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 8 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 2.5% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 199 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.64 million km2, 0.58 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
[/quote]
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1391 on: March 07, 2020, 07:02:55 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,179,488 km2(March 6, 2020)

Sea ice extent gain on this day of 134k the highest since at least 2002 for this day.

- 2019 is 17th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 134 k, 79 k more than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 55 k,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 0.44 million km2, 0.01 million (5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.45 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 982 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 492 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 580 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 7 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 2.8% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 198 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.72 million km2, 0.66 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1392 on: March 08, 2020, 07:49:05 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,179,488 km2(March 6, 2020)

- 2019 is 18th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase in the last 3 days 370 k, 200 k more than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 170 k in these 3 days,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 0.55 million km2, 0.04 million (9%) more than the 10 year average of 0.51 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,064 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is  561 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is  667 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 11 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 3.3% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 197 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.78 million km2, 0.72 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1393 on: March 09, 2020, 12:52:35 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,417,440 km2(March 8, 2020)

In the last 4 days 4 days of 100,000+ km2 extent gain, unprecedented at least since 2002 at this time of year.

- 2019 is 23rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase in the last 4 days 478 k, 23 k more than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 239 k in these 3 days,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 0.66 million km2, 0.08 million (14%) more than the 10 year average of 0.58 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,096 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is   604 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is   748 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 14 of the years before 2002,

- 3.7% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 197 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.82 million km2, 0.76 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1394 on: March 14, 2020, 11:41:54 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,805,664 km2(March 13, 2020)

In the last 5 days extent gain mostly above average.

- 2019 is 24th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 1.05 million km2, 0.11 million (11%) more than the 10 year average of 0.94 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,250 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is   453 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is   888 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 14 of the years before 2002,

- 6.3% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 191 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.84 million km2, 0.78 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1395 on: March 15, 2020, 12:37:58 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,914,572 km2(March 14, 2020)

- 2019 is 24th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain on this day 109 k, 45 k more than the 10 year average of 64 k on this day.
- Extent gain from minimum to date 1.16 million km2, 0.15 million (15%) more than the 10 year average of 1.01 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,299 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is   526 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is   953 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 14 of the years before 2002,

- 6.7% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 190 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.89 million km2, 0.83 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1396 on: March 20, 2020, 09:38:10 PM »
Ross Sea is freezing over rapidly. Last week there was only open waters, now a lot of very fresh young ice is visible.
17 days later Southern and Central Ross Sea is almost 100 % covered by young sea ice.
See attached picture.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1397 on: March 21, 2020, 12:00:21 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,321,406 km2(March 20, 2020)

Extent gain in the last week pretty much average, only half a million km2, twice the area of the UK. Everything in the Antarctic is on an enormous scale.

- 2019 is 21st lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 1.56 million km2, 0.14 million (10%) more than the 10 year average of 1.42 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,341 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is   477 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 1,031 k more than 2019 on this day,
- Extent is   188 k more than the 1980's average on this day,

and Extent on this day is more than in 12 of the years before 2002,

- 9.8% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 184 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.88 million km2, 0.82 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
__________________________________________
ps:- In the Arctic it is a case of the warmer it gets, the less sea ice.
This may now not be true in the Antarctic, and could even end up being untrue in the Arctic.

This is perhaps due principally to the accelerating melt of the AIS and GIS.
I am hoping to have a look at that during my lockdown of 95 days to go (enforced by my daughter).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

nanning

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1398 on: March 21, 2020, 04:16:16 PM »
You have a loving daughter gerontocrat.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1399 on: April 03, 2020, 12:00:13 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 5,351,771 km2(April 2, 2020)

Extent gain in the last 2 weeks a bit more below than above average.

- 2019 is 17th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 2.59 million km2, 0.07 million (2.7%) more than the 10 year average of 2.52 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,567 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is   339 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 1,067 k more than 2019 on this day,
- Extent is 162 k more than the 1980's average on this day,

and Extent on this day is more than in 9 of the years before 2002,

- 18.8% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 171 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.80 million km2, 0.74 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
__________________________________________
ps:- In the Arctic it is a case of the warmer it gets, the less sea ice.
This may now not be true in the Antarctic, and could even end up being untrue in the Arctic.

This is perhaps due principally to the accelerating melt of the AIS and GIS.
I am hoping to have a look at that during my lockdown of 95 82 days to go (enforced by my daughter).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)