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Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #150 on: December 12, 2016, 06:04:46 AM »
There are huge areas(pics below) of ice in bad shape.Some of these patches probably meet the minimum percentage to be counted, making them seem to disappear even faster. It will be interesting to see what happens to Weddell Sea, which always seems to hold out to the end.


Lord M Vader

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #151 on: December 12, 2016, 08:33:44 PM »
More than 800K sea ice gone in just 3 days.

The NSIDC values were for

December 9:   -178K
December 10: -262K
December 11: -367K

and we are now down to 9,043 Mn km2. The 5-day average is at 9,628 Mn km2. Still, the 5-day average needs to drop another 3,3 Mn km2 until December 30 to remain lowest on record. That means we need to see roughly another 165K drop every day now.

Buddy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #152 on: December 12, 2016, 09:19:48 PM »
Quote
and we are now down to 9,043 Mn km2. The 5-day average is at 9,628 Mn km2. Still, the 5-day average needs to drop another 3,3 Mn km2 until December 30 to remain lowest on record. That means we need to see roughly another 165K drop every day now.

At 200K a day....that could "go quickly".  That would be slightly over 4 million (IF.....that 200K per day came to fruition).  Looking at prior years....it looks like we have about 10 days of REALLY STEEP LOSES....followed by another 10+ days of losses not quite as steep...but still "plenty steep".

A 3.5 - 4.0+ million loss is "doable" I'm afraid.....  Again, we find ourselves in the land of "unexpected happenings"....where the previously unthinkable....actually happens.

 
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #153 on: December 13, 2016, 01:21:02 AM »
i think that the extre huge amount of blue instead of white surface will make it very probably that this continues. even within extent area there is a lot of dark blue that would absorb a lot of energy that was reflected in earlier years.

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #154 on: December 13, 2016, 04:47:56 AM »
For Dec. 12th JAXA has posted 8,769,622 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 309,180 km2.

kiwichick16

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #155 on: December 13, 2016, 05:22:00 AM »
wow!

dingojoe

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #156 on: December 13, 2016, 05:51:27 AM »
For all the attention on the Weddell side, a week to 10 days ago it was plausible for the Ross side to start lagging in melt.  There was a large dense pack and the polynya along the front of the Ross Ice Shelf wasn't especially large for the first week of Dec.  Well, the polynya has expanded quite rapidly over the last 10 days and while the pack on the East side is still large it's become much more pockmarked.  A full melt out of the Ross Sea (which doesn't always occur) seems much more likely now than 10 days ago.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #157 on: December 13, 2016, 12:36:07 PM »
I understand that most Antarctic sea ice is first year ice, so even as sea ice loss is earlier/faster than ever this year, by late summer (austral) other years are sure to 'catch up'.  Early melt will cause some amount of extra stresses on the ice systems due to diminished albedo and extra waves, though, I'm sure.  With the oceanic heat that is melting glacial tongues and (probably) ice shelves 'from the bottom' in recent years (decades), will the extra surface forces help foster some shelf or glacier collapses? (Or do the surface issues pale compared with the deep down ones?)
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Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #158 on: December 13, 2016, 02:08:13 PM »
I understand that most Antarctic sea ice is first year ice, so even as sea ice loss is earlier/faster than ever this year, by late summer (austral) other years are sure to 'catch up'.  Early melt will cause some amount of extra stresses on the ice systems due to diminished albedo and extra waves, though, I'm sure.  With the oceanic heat that is melting glacial tongues and (probably) ice shelves 'from the bottom' in recent years (decades), will the extra surface forces help foster some shelf or glacier collapses? (Or do the surface issues pale compared with the deep down ones?)
I posted an article in the What's New in Antarctica thread yesterday. They now have found out that Antarctic land ice is honeycombed with sub-surface lakes and streams much the same as Greenland. The problem is that some of these lakes run from land ice out to and maybe into shelves. So, they fear that when shelves break off, the lakes will dump all the water from even what's held under land ice. Obviously, this makes the whole situation less stable than anyone knew.

Buddy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #159 on: December 13, 2016, 02:24:54 PM »
Quote
December 9:   -178K
December 10: -262K
December 11: -367K

Adding in the loss from the 12th of 309K......Antarctica has now lost an area the size of California AND Texas...COMBINED for that 4 day period. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_area
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Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #160 on: December 13, 2016, 04:22:13 PM »
I am starting to think that a lot of this accelerated melt of sea ice is from sst's. There is warmer waters very close by and the ocean is know for being rough around Antarctica.


Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #161 on: December 14, 2016, 04:25:45 AM »
For Dec. 13th, JAXA has posted 8,519,734 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 249,888 km2.


Pmt111500

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #162 on: December 14, 2016, 04:53:52 AM »
For Dec. 13th, JAXA has posted 8,519,734 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 249,888 km2.



That looks like the Weddell Gyre has plenty of heat surfacing. Where this heat has come about is a good question, if someone knows please inform... I haven't followed Southern Ocean so well I could say if this is the sole reason for large drops and continued deficit of ice compared to normal, but it's one possibility.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #163 on: December 14, 2016, 05:14:01 AM »
That is what I was looking at in post 160. How close the warm surface waters are, in the first image. Then the waves in the second image, which could bring in warm waters from nearby surface. Not saying this is the sole source, but a contributor. You will note that where the ice is gone wave action is moving in.

johnm33

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #164 on: December 14, 2016, 02:42:19 PM »
I've been looking at this for a while, I'm begining to suspect that the Agulas cuurrent has filled the Agulas basin and is backed up past the point of breakout, mainly for the lack of other ideas. I can't think of any test to falsify it, nor any real evidence that it's true. I've animated the shown product/dataset/variables back at http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/ and the temp. at various depths and it certainly appears to be melting from below, which could mean the local Weddel sea/Queen Mauds land ice shelves are in danger this summer. Animation icon bottom left, I ran it from 11/13 2fps.


Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #165 on: December 15, 2016, 05:08:03 AM »
For Dec. 14th JAXA has posted 8,278,712 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 241,022 km2.

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #166 on: December 15, 2016, 05:51:00 AM »
The sea ice in Weddell sea has, as far back as I could tell, always held on to the end of melt season.
Maybe the Peninsula served to protect it or something. This year it is already showing early signs that it may not fare so well.


Lord M Vader

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #167 on: December 15, 2016, 06:18:23 PM »
For December 14, NSIDC reports a drop of -259K.

Buddy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #168 on: December 15, 2016, 07:27:11 PM »
Quote
For December 14, NSIDC reports a drop of -259K.

Average for the last 7 days is 266K per day (including a single day of 178K).

We have blown through 1,866,000 sq. kilometers in last 7 days.

This actually looks to be only a slightly "steeper" angle of descent than normal.  What WILL be interesting to me....is how long will this go on....and where will it end up?  Will it be a new record low by a little bit...or will it blow it away?  Right now...it looks like we are still about 5 standard deviations BELOW the mean for this time of year.

   
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kiwichick16

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #169 on: December 15, 2016, 07:28:41 PM »
@ tigertown......re Weddell Sea ....my understanding is that the peninsula protects it from the prevailing westerly winds

magnamentis

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #170 on: December 15, 2016, 11:09:45 PM »
@ tigertown......re Weddell Sea ....my understanding is that the peninsula protects it from the prevailing westerly winds

yes and the wave action and the mixing that comes with it. it's a very normel "lee" phenomenon" as it happens quite often, just that this is a big one and the result is quite obvious.

Tealight

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #171 on: December 15, 2016, 11:30:36 PM »
@Buddy

A new record low is of course highly likely, but the difference to other years will become smaller. The average minimum is around 2.88 million km2 and we are currently 2.4 million km2 below the average. An extent of only 0.4-0.5 million km2 is pretty much impossible.

For area the minimum would have to be negative to keep the current anomaly.

wehappyfew

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #172 on: December 16, 2016, 01:40:23 AM »
I can see the next denier talking point...

"Antarctic negative anomaly diminishes at record pace!!! New Ice Age starting????!!!!11!!???"



Buddy

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #173 on: December 16, 2016, 01:59:02 AM »
@Tealight

I pretty much agree with you.  I expect a record low....and I don't expect it to end up at .4 or .5 in Feb.  Although I would caution about using phrases like "pretty much impossible".  We are now entering a period of time over the next few years where we have a pretty good chance of being "shocked" from time-to-time by things that we thought were nearly impossible.
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Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #174 on: December 16, 2016, 04:23:38 AM »
For Dec. 15th JAXA has posted 8,047,850 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 230,862 km2.

diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #175 on: December 17, 2016, 01:58:06 PM »
Lowest years of the 1973-2016 time series (2016 updated until December 16th):




Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #176 on: December 18, 2016, 08:40:28 AM »
For Dec. 17th JAXA has posted 7,685,353 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 362,497 km2 from that of the 15th.

andy_t_roo

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #177 on: December 18, 2016, 09:36:10 PM »
Given that the ice melts back to the coast in many areas, even on an normal year, is anyone able  to split out the area graphics by region, or longitude?

This would allow the discussion to be split into 'the area was probably going to melt anyway so what does extended exposure to sea temps for the coast/ glaciers mean? '  and 'will the higher rate of melting mean this area will melt?'

Rattle

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #178 on: December 18, 2016, 11:09:30 PM »
For area the minimum would have to be negative to keep the current anomaly.

Should there be a thread monitoring loss of land ice?

In seriousness I agree that the anomaly will have to reduce eventually, it looks to me like the chart is tracking closely with previous years but about 1 week early.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #179 on: December 18, 2016, 11:19:43 PM »
Just keep an eye on Weddell as that generally holds onto a lot of ice but there is already open water there and those 'fohn winds' might also mess with the ice closest to the peninsula as summer progresses?
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Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #180 on: December 19, 2016, 06:46:57 AM »
For Dec. 18th JAXA has posted 7,529,128 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 156,225 km2.

Darvince

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #181 on: December 19, 2016, 09:50:43 AM »
There seems to be a slight possibility of catching up with other years by the end of the year.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #182 on: December 19, 2016, 01:29:35 PM »
The problem , to me, is not the final figures ( even though I think that they will be low) but the heat that the lack of ice has been able to be taken up, compared to years when ice albedo was higher due to there being more ice present?

We are post Nino and a number of folk are looking to see Global temps fall as they did after the 98' Super Nino that had a following Nina until 2001? Global Temps are already appearing to recover from the post nino dip and I think Southern ocean temps will be playing a part in that if not the anomalous temps over both Poles?
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Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #183 on: December 19, 2016, 01:50:33 PM »
JAXA just updated there imaging.

kiwichick16

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #184 on: December 19, 2016, 01:54:40 PM »
Winter rainfall over Australia was extreme this year ...possibly caused by the southern ocean lows moving slightly northward
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/rranom.aus.0608.58473.hires.png

kiwichick16

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #185 on: December 19, 2016, 02:00:01 PM »
followed by much lower average Spring temperatures over Australia .....admittedly only down to the long term average

http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/tmean.aus.0911.29881.hires.png

andy_t_roo

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #186 on: December 19, 2016, 09:42:10 PM »
Winter rainfall over Australia was extreme this year ...possibly caused by the southern ocean lows moving slightly northward
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/rranom.aus.0608.58473.hires.png
Sorry kiwichick16,  but both your links are 'page not found'

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #187 on: December 20, 2016, 05:33:06 AM »
For Dec. 19th JAXA has posted 7,313,591 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 215,537 km2.

Edit: Warning! Big drops coming up. There are huge areas of ice that have degraded very rapidly, but still have enough concentration to count in SIE. When these go, they will probably go fast.
Example.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2016, 06:13:09 AM by Tigertown »

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #188 on: December 20, 2016, 07:41:51 AM »
Weddell sea ice from Dec. 1st til now plus forecast to the 29th
Click image for action

johnm33

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #189 on: December 20, 2016, 12:44:55 PM »
Good work TT. I've been looking at these too



I'll be surprised if all of the ice shelves in the area remain intact.

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #190 on: December 20, 2016, 03:46:14 PM »
That's almost shocking that 49 cm down makes that much difference. The temperatures really surprised me. I probably checked the surface a dozen times, wondering why everything was happening so fast.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 01:12:21 AM by Tigertown »

Tigertown

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #191 on: December 21, 2016, 05:39:14 AM »
For Dec. 20th JAXA has posted 7,149,895 km2 for SIE around Antarctica.

Down by 163,696 km2.

Darvince

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #192 on: December 21, 2016, 07:54:37 AM »
There seems to be a slight possibility of catching up with other years by the end of the year.
Welp, that slim chance is gone now.

Adam Ash

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #193 on: December 21, 2016, 11:20:18 AM »
Just keep an eye on Weddell as that generally holds onto a lot of ice but there is already open water there and those 'fohn winds' might also mess with the ice closest to the peninsula as summer progresses?

I imagine that winds blowing west-to-east across the peninsula into the Weddell Sea will push ice away from the coast.  The already exposed water between the ice shelves and the free ice will then be pushed away from the coast leading to a turn over - with the deeper (warmer?) water being pulled up to replace it.  Which will further erode both the ice shelf and the adjacent sea ice - opening more water surface to the roll-over effect... etc.  A pretty feedback loop indeed.

georged

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #194 on: December 21, 2016, 11:26:49 AM »

I imagine that winds blowing west-to-east across the peninsula into the Weddell Sea will push ice away from the coast.  The already exposed water between the ice shelves and the free ice will then be pushed away from the coast leading to a turn over - with the deeper (warmer?) water being pulled up to replace it.  Which will further erode both the ice shelf and the adjacent sea ice - opening more water surface to the roll-over effect... etc.  A pretty feedback loop indeed.

I was thinking about exactly that. When fresh melt is of a sufficient volume it pulls in warm water, creating a giant heat export pump. Under certain conditions, this could be self sustaining and create an ongoing feedback.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #195 on: December 21, 2016, 11:56:11 AM »
A recent NASA article about Antarctic (& global!) sea ice:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89280

Quote
It remains to be seen how much Antarctic sea ice will melt during the remainder of the season; sea ice usually reaches its annual minimum extent in February. In some places around the continent, sea ice can melt completely before starting the annual cycle of refreezing.

In recent years, notably from 2012 to 2014, the period of refreezing has culminated in record-high maximum extents. On an annual basis, the total Antarctic sea ice extent has increased about 1 percent per decade since 1979. Still, the long-term trend still shows a global decline in sea ice.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Lord M Vader

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #196 on: December 21, 2016, 04:52:55 PM »
NSIDC reports a mammoth century break today with a 378K drop.

For the dates the drops were

December 15: 125K
December 16: 205K
December 17: 114K
December 18: 149K
December 19: 57K
December 20: 378K

The daily value for December 20 is now down to 7,167 Mn km2.

diablobanquisa

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #197 on: December 21, 2016, 07:34:17 PM »
Updated until Dec. 20th




frankendoodle

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #198 on: December 21, 2016, 07:40:45 PM »
I usually only follow Arctic Sea Ice March through September but this year (for obvious reasons) has me keenly interested in Antarctica. 

The JAXA measurement for December 20th 2016 is 3,164,640 km2 lower than the 2010-2015 average for this date & 2,289,662 km2 lower than the 2000's average for 12/20.

I am starting to think that Antarctic Sea Ice might fall to or below one million km2 in February.
What is everyone's opinion on this?

magnamentis

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #199 on: December 21, 2016, 08:27:15 PM »
I usually only follow Arctic Sea Ice March through September but this year (for obvious reasons) has me keenly interested in Antarctica. 

The JAXA measurement for December 20th 2016 is 3,164,640 km2 lower than the 2010-2015 average for this date & 2,289,662 km2 lower than the 2000's average for 12/20.

I am starting to think that Antarctic Sea Ice might fall to or below one million km2 in February.
What is everyone's opinion on this?

- as to 1M i agree as to the possibility being real

- as to only watching north (because it was more interesting and because most of us live north of the equator) i think this is not the right approach. after all we have one planet we live on and space ship earth is definitely one system and it's sections cannot and should not be artificially seen separately. just another one of those splitting everything up into tiny niches where some can
play know it all and in the process mankind is using the bigger picture that is so much needed to make good decisions.

to make this clear, i don't mean you, your post just gave me the trigger to repeat this whenever an opportunity occurs because IMO it's part of the problem that we so much specialize and in the process divide things that in reality belong very much together.

cheers.