Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,283,842 KM2 as at 30-Jun-2023

- Area gain on this day 77k, 17 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.22 million km2, 1.68 million km2 (17.0%) less than the 10 year average of 9.90 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 118 days this year

- AREA is  2,226 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,476 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,176 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,372 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,050 k (18.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,623 k (22.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,581 k LESS than 1980

- On average  75.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 79 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.28 million km2, 4.88 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 3.22 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.65 million KM2, 51%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.18 million KM2, 30% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.51 million km2, 1.65 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

Lots more to post on the Antarctic, but it will have to wait until tomorrow.

Butbefore I go it looks like the Ross Sea and perhaps the Weddell Sea and the BellinhausenAmundsen sea are set to lose some sea ice over the next few days.

[kiwichick16]

@  gerontocrat  .... we are definitely getting those cold blue temps in NZ at the moment ..... snow in the hill suburbs of Dunedin last night and to 150 metres on the Maungatua Ranges to our west.

First widespread snowfall this winter.

[gerontocrat]

& on the North Coast of Scotland we have had overnight what felt like an Autumn equinoxial gale, dying down gradually as I am writing this.  Not supposed to happen on July 1-2.

meanwhile...

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,309,929 KM2 as at 01-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 139k, 40 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 99k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.36 million km2, 1.60 million km2, (13.4%) less than the 10 year average of 11.96 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 134 days this year

- Extent is  1,592 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,404 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,175 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,355 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,461 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,644 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  75.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 79 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.26 million km2, 1.75 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.31 million km2, 5.7 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.95 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.75 million KM2, 44% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.54 million KM2, 15% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA: Another month gone so here is a look at June data.

The June 2023 monthly average sea ice area was 8.36 million km2, 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 2.07 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 1.02 million km2 below the June 2022 average.

If daily sea ice area gains and losses are at the average of the last 10 years for the remaining 6 months of the year, 2023 daily average area for the year will be 6.88 million km2,  lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 1.84 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 1.15 million km2 below the 2022 average.

June increased the extreme deviation from the linear trend.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):

The 365 day trailing average in June fell by 82k km2 to 7.78 million km2, 1.12 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 0.14 million km2 below the previous record low in October 2017.

Average sea ice extent loses and gains from now would see this trailing average falling by more than 0.8 million km2 by the end of the year.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,385,493 KM2 as at 01-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 102k, 18 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 84k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.33 million km2, 1.66 million km2 (16.6%) less than the 10 year average of 9.99 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 119 days this year

- AREA is  2,189 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,508 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,175 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,382 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,042 k (17.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,597 k (21.7%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,539 k LESS than 1980

- On average  76.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 78 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.39 million km2, 4.77 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 3.14 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.63 million KM2, 52%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.08 million KM2, 30% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.53 million km2, 1.63 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,352,145 KM2 as at 02-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 42k, 40 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 82k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.40 million km2, 1.64 million km2, (13.6%) less than the 10 year average of 12.05 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 135 days this year

- Extent is  1,611 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,520 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,240 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,382 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,514 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,678 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  75.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 78 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.22 million km2, 1.79 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.35 million km2, 5.65 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.87 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.79 million KM2, 46% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.45 million KM2, 15% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,377,416 KM2 as at 03-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 25k, 55 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.43 million km2, 1.70 million km2, (14.0%) less than the 10 year average of 12.13 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 136 days this year

- Extent is  1,659 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,612 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,245 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,469 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,573 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,717 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  76.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 77 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.16 million km2, 1.84 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.38 million km2, 5.63 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.79 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.84 million KM2, 49% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.36 million KM2, 15% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[HapHazard]

IDK what to think about this any more. Just along for the crazy ride.

[kiwichick16]

@  HapHazard  ..... +1   ..... i had hoped things were heading back towards more normality last week .... we are now at 5.4 NZ's below the previous lowest for this date ..... and we are now 12 days past the shortest day and the trend for extent gains is declining

[Renerpho]

I am starting to wonder if recovery to the previous levels is even possible. Does the old equilibrium still exist, or is this just the new normal? Or will we see record highs in a year or two, because all this is is increased volatility?

[kiwichick16]

@  renerpho   .....if we keep adding more GHG's to the system , its hard to see ice levels increasing

[be cause]

CR records a 4.5'C jump in Antarctic temps in the last 4 days . Not ideal considering current circumstances .

[gerontocrat]

In reply to Renerpho's post above

For Antarctic sea ice not to be a record low maximum by a large amount would be astonishing given over 75% of average sea ice gains completed.

The Guardian has identified a growing debate by climate scientiats.  Is 2023 (& 2024?) seeing a one-off event due to a combination of el nino & AGW, or are we seeing the beginning of a new climate state? This adds to my speculation that chaos may be the new order..

Extracts follow to show the different views

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/03/a-perfect-storm-scientists-ponder-if-climate-has-entered-a-new-erratic-era
Will El Niño on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?

Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather

Very unusual”, “worrying”, “terrifying”, and “bonkers”; the reactions of veteran scientists to the sharp increase in north Atlantic surface temperatures over the past three months raises the question of whether the world’s climate has entered a more erratic and dangerous phase with the onset of an El Niño event on top of human-made global heating.

Since April, the warming appears to have entered a new trajectory. Meanwhile the area of global sea ice has dropped by more than 1 million sq km below the previous low.

“If a few decades ago, some people might have thought climate change was a relatively slow-moving phenomenon, we are now witnessing our climate changing at a terrifying rate,” said Prof Peter Stott, who leads the UK Met Office’s climate monitoring and attribution team. “As the El Niño builds through the rest of this year, adding an extra oomph to the damaging effects of human-induced global heating, many millions of people across the planet and many diverse ecosystems are going to face extraordinary challenges and unfortunately suffer great damage.”

.....  prompted some commentators to wonder if something unforeseen – a black swan event – was taking place in the climate system.

Calmer heads explained that it was more likely the result of El Niño and other natural factors being amplified by the greenhouse gas emissions from cars, factories and forest clearance.

Michael Mann, the presidential distinguished professor at the University of Pennsylvania, warned against “cherry picking” one set of data from one region over a relatively short period of time. It was more important, he said, to focus on the bigger picture: that burning fossil fuels was leading to more powerful and destructive hurricanes as well as providing the energy in the atmosphere to fuel extreme weather events, such as droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and floods. “We need to step back and look at the big picture. And it is alarming. The truth,” Mann said, “is bad enough.”

Katharine Hayhoe, the chief scientist with the Nature Conservancy and distinguished professor at Texas Tech University, said the north Atlantic temperature anomaly was the result of long-term loading of the climate system by 380 zeta joules of extra heat from human emissions of heat-trapping gases. “Nearly 90% of it has been going into the ocean; and it’s that gradual but inexorable increase in ocean heat content over time scales of decades rather than years that most worries climate scientists,” she said.

However, rather than seeing the north Atlantic spike as a one-off event, Richard Betts, the head of the climate impacts division at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter said: “We can expect this kind of event to happen more often – which of course is a major cause for concern. For me, these graphs [of Atlantic surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice] are like yet another hammer blow driving home the urgency of the climate situation we are now in.”

While human emissions and El Niño are likely to be the two main drivers of the north Atlantic spike, Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with the Breakthrough Institute, said more time was needed to disentangle other possible contributing factors, such as this year’s unusual dearth in Saharan dust levels, the large amount of stratospheric water vapour, the slowing of ocean circulation and the increasing frequency of El Niño events.

More broadly, Hausfather said, the trends were in line with climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that showed warming would accelerate in coming decades unless emissions were reduced. “I’m reluctant to say that it’s worse than we expected, because what we expect in a world where we don’t reduce emissions is bad enough.”

[be cause]

Has El Nino come back from the future ?

[kiwichick16]

@  because    ......could you explain what your comment means please ?

[be cause]

If el nino hasn't really got going yet with regard to impact , how is it already causing havoc ?
   '' calmer heads explained it was more likely the result of El Nino etc.  ''

[kiwichick16]

@  because  ....thanks ..... the sea temps are already close to  El nino levels in the Pacific Ocean where the SOI is calculated ..... and there is some speculation that the last 3 years of La nina and a Neutral year with ongoing addition of GHG's has suppressed global temps ......and we are now starting to see that heat coming to the surface , as well as the air temps . i also wonder if we are seeing the acceleration in temperatures from about 1980 now overcoming the time lag in heating the oceans...... although that doesn't really fit with the high sea ice levels in Antarctica in 2013 and 2014.

Just my totally amateur musings !!

[grixm]

wtf

[John_the_Younger]

Don't forget the effects of the Tonga eruption might be having.  One report (from a year + ago) said it would take 18 months for the stratospheric H2O to reach the South Pole (so it has now reached there) and would stick around for 5-10 years.  What I have no clue of is how much heating this is expected to add (and the cooling sulfate aerosols that eruption sent up wouldn't last very long because not much was sent up).  These affects, of course, would be on top of the leaving-la-nina ENSO regime.

Edit: Carbon Brief reported on research in January 2023:

The eruption of Tonga’s underwater volcano in 2022 may cause global temperatures to rise, raising the risk that at least one year in the next five will temporarily exceed the 1.5C warming threshold, new research finds.

[HapHazard]

This adds to my speculation that chaos may be the new order..

That's been my instinct for a few years. I liken it to a spinning top. It's very stable... until it starts slowing down, at which point it gets more wobbly & chaotic. That's where we are now, regarding climate. How much more wobbly will it get? IDK, nor do I know how long it'll last. But volatility will be the norm until a new regime/equilibrium settles in. I imagine that is a long ways off, so enjoy the ride & banging our heads off the wall trying to model/predict it.

Aside: I feel bad cluttering up this data thread, but there's no real Antarctic analogue to the Arctic chatter threads... Perhaps, given the activity here this season, we should start one?

[gerontocrat]

Aside: I feel bad cluttering up this data thread, but there's no real Antarctic analogue to the Arctic chatter threads... Perhaps, given the activity here this season, we should start one?

Don't feel bad, HapHazard. It's nice to have company. It has been a lonely thread until a year or so ago.

Once again, NSIDC are late with the data. Independence day is no excuse.
I will hang on until 10 p.m. British Summer Time....

[kassy]

The effects of the Tonga eruption are small on the grand scheme of things so they do not explain this. The science article on declining AABW formation noticed changes going back to the nineties. You don´t see them on the ice but there is a lot of energy going into the system over a long time.

The refreeze being slow after last seasons big melt is no surprise, it is not the Arctic so it can not fill up which means the outer edges are always exposed to wave action. As noted above the change has been building over a number of years.

Maybe current global temperatures are simply enough to do this. We always assumed it would happen much later but we never checked it. We never expected the AABW thing or Thwaithes collapse to happen this soon either.

It will be interesting to see where we end up this freeze season and after the next EN influenced melt season.

[FishOutofWater]

Melting from below began to disrupt AABW formation decades ago, probably since the 90s. For a while the extensive melting of glaciers from both above and below created a fresh water layer that caused the winter sea ice to extend northwards. However, with the recent 3 year La Niña the storm track and winds tightened up around Antarctica churning up the water and ice on the outer edges of the pack.

That's the best hypothesis I can synthesize here based on the professional publications I have read.

Another hypothesis is that natural variability hid the effects of climate change and rising ocean heat until the last few years. What ever the case on the details, climate models did predict a decline in Antarctic sea ice and it is happening now.

[Renerpho]

In reply to Renerpho's post above

For Antarctic sea ice not to be a record low maximum by a large amount would be astonishing given over 75% of average sea ice gains completed.

The Guardian has identified a growing debate by climate scientiats.  Is 2023 (& 2024?) seeing a one-off event due to a combination of el nino & AGW, or are we seeing the beginning of a new climate state? This adds to my speculation that chaos may be the new order..

Maybe I should clarify: I am almost certain that we'll see a record low maximum this year. I'd also be surprised if this was a one-off event.
The question is, what happens during the next melting season, and after that? Does it stay low, or does it swing back, even to unusually high values next year? The large negative anomalies we saw in late 2016 were preceded (and followed) by positive anomalies on either side, with sharp swings back and forth. Will this continue?
I am not arguing either that this is any better than the more obvious idea that we're just in a downward spiral. Just less predictable. And this can still be on top of a long term downward trend.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

I have always wondered how much real-life merit there is to the discussion surrounding enthalpy of fusion/stabilization of temperature flux due to higher ice volume, and if the risk due to loss is as impactful is some claim, whether significant additional energy will be absorbed by the Southern Ocean system due to the massively reduced albedo and energy spent on melt this coming season. Maybe the ice truly has little to no memory, but I am very curious to see how SSTs will respond to this anomaly given its scale.

[kiwichick16]

@ foow  .....+1  .... plus the La nina years have tended to hold the heat in the oceans  and we are 30 plus years since the acceleration of temperature rise in the 1980's.

https://skepticalscience.com/SkS_Analogy_04_Ocean_Time_Lag_2022.html

i assume there are people trying to get an accurate scientific reasoning on what we are seeing ..... at least i hope so

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,378,501 KM2 as at 04-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 1k, 103 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 104k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.43 million km2, 1.80 million km2, (14.7%) less than the 10 year average of 12.23 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 137 days this year

- Extent is  1,798 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,675 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,378 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,535 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,648 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,802 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  76.9% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 76 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.06 million km2, 1.95 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.38 million km2, 5.63 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.68 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.95 million KM2, 53% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.27 million KM2, 16% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[oren]

Simply amazing. Every day the anomaly grows.

[kiwichick16]

@ oren  ..... assuming the temperature anomaly map on ClimateReanalyzer is accurate , it is showing areas up to 18 degrees C above average, particularly the Weddell Sea

[grixm]

Two daily century breaks in a row 🤡🤡🤡

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,558,039 KM2 as at 04-Jul-2023

As the data is the 5-day trailing average the narrative below is before the full effect of the last 2 days large sea ice area losses kicks in

- Area gain on this day 19k, 47 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 66k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.50 million km2, 1.69 million km2 (16.6%) less than the 10 year average of 10.19 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 122 days this year

- AREA is  2,067 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,661 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,325 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,400 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,137 k (18.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,605 k (21.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  77.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 75 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.56 million km2, 4.6 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.94 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.67 million KM2, 57%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.99 million KM2, 36% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.49 million km2, 1.67 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

All three graphs from Nico Sun @ https://cryospherecomputing.com/

2 million to 2.75 million km2 of sea ice has been missing from the Southerm ocean for a couple of months, that is more than 25% of the land area of the contiguous United States (the Lower 48), or about 10 times the area of the UK. Last year was not much better.

Surely such a vast area transformed from ice cover to open water must have big influence on heat transfer to and from the ocean and the atmosphere, and therefore influence the weather locally, regionally and maybe globally.

As yet I have not seen a paper on the impact of declining sea ice in the Southern Ocean on climate and weather. Has anybody?

[kassy]

It´s too early for that i think. Most concerns were with other processes (Thwaithes etc) and in general this is not a topic that got mentioned as a possibility very often.

[RoxTheGeologist]

@  HapHazard  ..... +1   ..... i had hoped things were heading back towards more normality last week .... we are now at 5.4 NZ's below the previous lowest for this date ..... and we are now 12 days past the shortest day and the trend for extent gains is declining

Usually you get a few days and it bounces back but .... this is crazy

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,434,120 KM2 as at 05-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 56k, 45 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 101k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.48 million km2, 1.85 million km2, (15.0%) less than the 10 year average of 12.33 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 138 days this year

- Extent is  1,895 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,682 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,413 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,555 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,661 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,842 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  77.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 75 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.01 million km2, 1.99 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.43 million km2, 5.57 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.58 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.99 million KM2, 56% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.2 million KM2, 17% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[anaphylaxia]

Nobody wants to touch Antartic sea ice papers with even a 10 foot pole after the rapid fluctuations in 2013-2016. No hypothesis even remotely plausible was presented as to why it would have such huge swings, and i have the feeling now everyone is just watching from the sideline astonished.

[kiwichick16]

@  anaphylaxia   .... well i'll put forward one ....... global warming accelerated in the 1980's and with the 30 year ocean time lag that could be playing out now . The period from the 1940's to 1980's coincides with the marginally positive sea ice extents up to 2014/15 , then we had a Super El Nino in 2015 / 16 on top of the constantly increasing heat in the oceans.

[oren]

I think the Antarctic is mostly dependent on wind patterns, as there is a huge block of ice in the middle and an unbounded ocean around it, quite opposite to the Arctic. Plus a colder winter and warmer summer, and the ice is in much lower latitudes, so very little surviving MYI, therefore a much lower interannual "memory".
Should the winds spread less tight around the continent, the sea ice cover could bounce again.

[kiwichick16]

@  oren ..... +1  ...the winds are incredibly variable  ..... i think back to the research ship stuck in the ice in 2013 for example , however the oceans are absorbing approx 90 % of the extra heat being added to the system each year and that heat is increasing year after year , regardless of what the Southern Oscillation Index or the winds are doing.

The other significant change is the decline in the formation of the Antarctic deep bottom water, the cold water which a major driver of the global ocean circulation , with recent studies showing a 30% decline since the 1990's. This decline means less CO2 and less heat is being transported down to the deep ocean , leaving more to heat both the atmosphere and the sea surface.

And another factor , mentioned previously by others , is the decline in aerosols due to both the continuing increase in electricity from renewables, which is at least helping to offset the continued use of coal, and the reduction in sulpher in fuel for ships...with regulations requiring a 80 % reduction from 2020, reducing the global dimming effect.

And we also have the transition from LaNina to El Nino underway.

 My partner often reminds about  the best History teacher he ever had ,who used to say  ...... there is hardly ever just one reason for something  happening , there is almost always multiple factors leading to a final trigger..... the classic example usually given being the slaughter we now call the First World War.

[Renerpho]

My partner often reminds about  the best History teacher he ever had ,who used to say  ...... there is hardly ever just one reason for something  happening , there is almost always multiple factors leading to a final trigger..... the classic example usually given being the slaughter we now call the First World War.

Very true! And like with history, it's even worse than you suggest: Even when people agree on all the facts, their interpretations may still be very different. WW1, again, is a good example for this.
I think that, even if we had a nearly complete understanding of what's happening to global climate, that still wouldn't put an end to the arguments.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,551,574 KM2 as at 05-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 6k, 76 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.49 million km2, 1.77 million km2 (17.2%) less than the 10 year average of 10.26 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 123 days this year

- AREA is  2,106 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,781 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,451 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,449 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,239 k (19.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,668 k (21.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,800 k LESS than 1980

- On average  78.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 74 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.55 million km2, 4.61 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.86 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.74 million KM2, 61%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.01 million KM2, 40% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.42 million km2, 1.74 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[Stephan]

Quote from gerontocrat:
"To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.74 million KM2, 61%, above the average."
Some weeks ago this was 25 or 30%.
Will it reach 100%

[Renerpho]

Will it reach 100%

Probably, yes, and I expect it to reach infinity shortly after.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,497,358 KM2 as at 06-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 63k, 32 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 95k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.55 million km2, 1.88 million km2, (15.1%) less than the 10 year average of 12.43 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 139 days this year

- Extent is  2,002 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,791 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,410 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,562 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,659 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,882 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  78.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 74 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 15.98 million km2, 2.02 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.5 million km2, 5.51 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.49 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 2.02 million KM2, 58% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.15 million KM2, 19% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,536,818 KM2 as at 06-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 15k, 91 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 76k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.48 million km2, 1.86 million km2 (18.0%) less than the 10 year average of 10.34 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 124 days this year

- AREA is  2,217 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,902 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,580 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,541 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,327 k (19.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,744 k (22.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,969 k LESS than 1980

- On average  78.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 73 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.54 million km2, 4.62 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.79 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.83 million KM2, 66%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.01 million KM2, 44% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.33 million km2, 1.83 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[kiwichick16]

@ gerontocrat   ......sea ice anomaly  = area of Japan x4, or NZ x 5.7, or UK x6.3

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,572,893 KM2 as at 07-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 76k, 13 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 89k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.62 million km2, 1.89 million km2, (15.1%) less than the 10 year average of 12.52 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 140 days this year

- Extent is  2,052 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,823 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,403 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,579 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,645 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,889 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  78.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 73 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 15.97 million km2, 2.04 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.57 million km2, 5.43 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.4 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 2.04 million KM2, 60% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.12 million KM2, 21% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[Stephan]

Sea Ice Extent anomaly (2023 vs 2000s average) is 7,7 * the size of Germany.