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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3700 on: August 15, 2023, 09:50:06 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,030,877 KM2 as at 14-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 21k, 46 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.08 million km2, 1.79 million km2, (12.0%) less than the 10 year average of 14.87 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 178 days this year

- Extent is  1,797 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,924 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,137 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,817 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,612 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,813 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  93.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 35 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.07 million km2, 1.94 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.03 million km2, 2.98 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.04 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.94 million KM2 or 186%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.56 million KM2, 50% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3701 on: August 15, 2023, 10:21:58 AM »
& this is what Hansen et al have to say about it in his latest screed at
https://mailchi.mp/caa/uh-oh-now-what-are-we-acquiring-the-data-to-understand-the-situation

Extract - my italics

Quote
Feedbacks. As the Sun rises in the sky this year, as seen from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, the flux of energy from the Sun will beat down on a surface that is notably darker than at any time in the satellite era (i.e., since the 1970s), thus surely darker than at any time in the period of good temperature data.

Sea ice cover in the Southern Hemisphere has declined dramatically to a level well below prior records (Fig. 5). Increased absorption of sunlight will increase Earth’s energy imbalance further and increase global warming. The effect on sea surface temperature will be less than the effect on surface air temperature, so temperature compilations (such as GISTEMP) that use sea surface temperature rather than surface air temperature, will not register the full effect on surface air.

The important matter is the effect on Earth’s energy imbalance, which is now being measured reasonably well by the combination of satellite measurement of planetary radiation balance and in situ measurement of ocean heat content (Fig. 6). We have not yet calculated the expected effect of the reduced sea ice on Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) because it depends crucially on how sea ice cover changes as the Sun rises high in the sky as seen from the Southern Ocean. The calculation needs to accurately account for cloud shielding. However, it is clear that the reduced sea ice cover will cause a significantly increased drive for global warming.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3702 on: August 15, 2023, 01:18:52 PM »
sunrise at Scott Base  ..... 77 degrees South  166 degrees  East  .... on the 18th August ......only for about 30 minutes , but daylight time increases rapidly each day

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3703 on: August 15, 2023, 06:34:13 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,749,190 KM2 as at 14-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 11k, 39 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.69 million km2, 1.62 million km2 (13.2%) less than the 10 year average of 12.31 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 163 days this year

- AREA is  1,924 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,753 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,606 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,894 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,229 k (15.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,583 k (18.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,210 k LESS than 1980

- On average  93.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 34 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.75 million km2, 2.41 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.81 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.6 million KM2, 196%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.03 million KM2, 149% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, just 36% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.56 million km2, 1.60 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3704 on: August 16, 2023, 08:08:20 AM »
A daily extent gain of 160k a real surprise. A blip or a sign of things to come?

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,190,955 KM2 as at 15-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 160k, 119 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.24 million km2, 1.67 million km2, (11.2%) less than the 10 year average of 14.91 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 179 days this year

- Extent is  1,654 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,832 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,049 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,780 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,496 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,688 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  93.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 34 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.19 million km2, 1.82 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.19 million km2, 2.82 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.82 million KM2 or 182%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.6 million KM2, 60% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3705 on: August 16, 2023, 09:50:12 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,784,828 KM2 as at 15-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 36k, 20 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.72 million km2, 1.64 million km2 (13.3%) less than the 10 year average of 12.37 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 164 days this year

- AREA is  1,963 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,736 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,556 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,961 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,235 k (15.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,588 k (18.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,238 k LESS than 1980

- On average  94.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 33 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.78 million km2, 2.37 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.76 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.62 million KM2, 213%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.05 million KM2, 171% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, just 40% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.54 million km2, 1.62 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3706 on: August 17, 2023, 07:08:11 AM »
quotes from gero's posts:
"Area: To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.22 million km², 88%, above the average."
"Extent: To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.62 million km², 91% above the average."

We are not too far away from 100%. Will this threshold be reached soon?
The latest numbers are
Area 213 %
Extent 182 %
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3707 on: August 17, 2023, 02:25:55 PM »
As yet no published updates from JAXA or NSIDC.

But Nic Sun's images of one-day data for the 16th August show a big increase in Antarctic Sea Ice area.  A blip or a trend to follow the example of 2007?

Looks like those who voted for a max of < 12 million in the poll are kaput.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3708 on: August 17, 2023, 05:55:34 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,865,404 KM2 as at 16-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 81k, 38 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.81 million km2, 1.61 million km2 (12.9%) less than the 10 year average of 12.41 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 165 days this year

- AREA is  1,965 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,660 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,484 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,962 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,170 k (15.5%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,526 k (17.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,119 k LESS than 1980

- On average  94.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 32 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.87 million km2, 2.29 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.71 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.58 million KM2, 221%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.03 million KM2, 185% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, just 47% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.58 million km2, 1.58 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3709 on: August 18, 2023, 02:30:01 PM »
A big surprise from the JAXA daily sea ice extent increases in the last 2 days. A blip or a seachange?

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,636,072 KM2 as at 17-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 160k, 122 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 38k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.69 million km2, 1.29 million km2, (8.6%) less than the 10 year average of 14.98 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 181 days this year

- Extent is  1,231 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,489 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,745 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,444 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,136 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,295 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  94.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 32 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.57 million km2, 1.44 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.64 million km2, 2.37 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.93 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.44 million KM2 or 154%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.59 million KM2, 70% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3710 on: August 18, 2023, 04:31:48 PM »
@  gero ...barely believable   ..... Scott Base at 77 degrees South has its 1st sunrise today , 19th August at 12.32 pm

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3711 on: August 18, 2023, 11:12:13 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,957,577 KM2 as at 17-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 92k, 51 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.90 million km2, 1.55 million km2 (12.5%) less than the 10 year average of 12.45 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 166 days this year

- AREA is  1,946 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,573 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,454 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,928 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,107 k (15.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,446 k (17.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,023 k LESS than 1980

- On average  94.9% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 31 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.96 million km2, 2.2 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.67 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.53 million KM2, 227%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.98 million KM2, 193% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, just 51% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.63 million km2, 1.53 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3712 on: August 19, 2023, 10:47:11 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,675,724 KM2 as at 18-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 40k, 5 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 45k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.73 million km2, 1.30 million km2, (8.6%) less than the 10 year average of 15.02 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 182 days this year

- Extent is  1,218 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,474 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,780 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,443 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,129 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,283 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  94.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 31 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.56 million km2, 1.44 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.68 million km2, 2.33 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.89 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.44 million KM2 or 162%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.55 million KM2, 74% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3713 on: August 19, 2023, 01:36:22 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,043,124 KM2 as at 18-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 86k, 63 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.98 million km2, 1.49 million km2 (12.0%) less than the 10 year average of 12.48 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 167 days this year

- AREA is  1,929 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,499 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,469 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,850 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,027 k (14.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,356 k (16.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,965 k LESS than 1980

- On average  95.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 30 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.04 million km2, 2.12 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.65 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.47 million KM2, 225%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.88 million KM2, 188% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, just 54% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.69 million km2, 1.47 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3714 on: August 20, 2023, 01:51:52 AM »
I did an analysis of the Antarctic daily sea ice minimum per year. I don't see a trend, as we can see in the Arctic. The AASIE is declining but the decrease is not significant. In the last eleven years, we can find 5 years that are close to the minimum daily record, but also 3 years that are at the maximum daily record. I highlighted them in red and blue.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3715 on: August 20, 2023, 02:09:32 AM »
I don't plan to make it on a daily basis, but I have to recognize that the last couple of years, the action has been in the Antarctic. So, I decided to make a table, like the one I post for the Arctic.

Very impressive the Antarctic these last years!

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Antarctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 18th, 2023:
       15,675,724 km2, an increase of 39,652 km2.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3716 on: August 20, 2023, 02:56:00 AM »
Thanks Juan  ......and thankyou for your  ongoing effort bringing us the latest data  ......it is very much appreciated.

The "action " in the Southern ocean has me worried that we are witnessing a tipping point..... given that is largely the AABW that drives ocean circulation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01695-4#:~:text=AABW%20circulates%20from%20its%20formation,the%20abyssal%20ocean3%2C4.

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3717 on: August 20, 2023, 08:52:06 AM »
Were the recent extreme extent gains a blip, or do we have more large wobbles to come?
The Antarctic continues to confuse this watcher


JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,657,930 KM2 as at 19-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 18k, 50 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.71 million km2, 1.35 million km2, (8.9%) less than the 10 year average of 15.06 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 183 days this year

- Extent is  1,362 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,513 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,847 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,479 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,189 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,313 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  94.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 30 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.51 million km2, 1.49 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.66 million km2, 2.35 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.86 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.49 million KM2 or 174%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.5 million KM2, 75% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
« Last Edit: August 20, 2023, 09:03:17 AM by gerontocrat »
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Renerpho

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3718 on: August 20, 2023, 10:39:59 AM »
Were the recent extreme extent gains a blip, or do we have more large wobbles to come?
The Antarctic continues to confuse this watcher

Could this be a correction, rather than an actual sudden change? Maybe the numbers of the past month didn't reflect the real situation, and we have finally caught up.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3719 on: August 20, 2023, 12:41:36 PM »
Were the recent extreme extent gains a blip, or do we have more large wobbles to come?
The Antarctic continues to confuse this watcher

Could this be a correction, rather than an actual sudden change? Maybe the numbers of the past month didn't reflect the real situation, and we have finally caught up.
I've been looking a lot at the GFS forecasts on climatereanalyzer recently. There are to my eyes significant variations in temperatures in the various regions that are sometimes brief and sometimes sticky. My inclination is to say is that we are seeing very high wobbles earlier than usual as the freezing season draws to an end.

It still looks like a record low maximum by a large number, though who knows what a strengthening El Nino will bring

Only time will tell.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3720 on: August 20, 2023, 01:01:53 PM »
a 275000 km gain in ice looks like an anomaly to me  ..... is there precedence for such a large gain ?

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3721 on: August 20, 2023, 03:01:21 PM »
Were the recent extreme extent gains a blip, or do we have more large wobbles to come?
The Antarctic continues to confuse this watcher

Could this be a correction, rather than an actual sudden change? Maybe the numbers of the past month didn't reflect the real situation, and we have finally caught up.
I've been looking a lot at the GFS forecasts on climatereanalyzer recently. There are to my eyes significant variations in temperatures in the various regions that are sometimes brief and sometimes sticky. My inclination is to say is that we are seeing very high wobbles earlier than usual as the freezing season draws to an end.

It still looks like a record low maximum by a large number, though who knows what a strengthening El Nino will bring

Only time will tell.
On this day looks more like Renerpho's got it right
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3722 on: August 20, 2023, 03:43:08 PM »
a 275000 km gain in ice looks like an anomaly to me  ..... is there precedence for such a large gain ?
The largest daily extent gain in August from 2000 to 2022 was 219k.
So it was probably a record. But this is the year for records.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3723 on: August 20, 2023, 03:49:28 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,138,195 KM2 as at 19-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 95k, 81 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.08 million km2, 1.41 million km2 (11.3%) less than the 10 year average of 12.49 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 168 days this year

- AREA is  1,931 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,408 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,503 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,728 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,934 k (13.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,248 k (15.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,848 k LESS than 1980

- On average  95.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 29 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.14 million km2, 2.02 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.64 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.38 million KM2, 217%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.8 million KM2, 182% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, just 64% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.77 million km2, 1.38 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3724 on: August 20, 2023, 04:04:20 PM »
Looking at the climate reanalyser images of Antarctic temperatures just shows how variable they are. I certainly cannot even make a guess at what that means for sea ice gains and losses in the next few days.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3725 on: August 21, 2023, 08:28:59 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,691,090 KM2 as at 20-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 33k, 1 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.74 million km2, 1.35 million km2, (8.9%) less than the 10 year average of 15.09 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 184 days this year

- Extent is  1,451 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,568 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,781 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,417 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,199 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,310 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  94.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 29 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.51 million km2, 1.49 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.69 million km2, 2.31 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.82 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.49 million KM2 or 181%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.48 million KM2, 79% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3726 on: August 21, 2023, 12:54:43 PM »
a possible maximum 1.4 million sq kms lower than the previous record low...... and the record minimum is 1.8 million sq kms     .......could be an interesting southern summer

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3727 on: August 21, 2023, 07:31:14 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,225,054 KM2 as at 20-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 87k, 67 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.17 million km2, 1.34 million km2 (10.7%) less than the 10 year average of 12.51 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 169 days this year

- AREA is  1,943 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,341 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,534 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,619 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,871 k (13.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,150 k (15.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,822 k LESS than 1980

- On average  95.3% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 28 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.23 million km2, 1.93 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.62 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.32 million KM2, 213%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.72 million KM2, 180% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, just 78% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.84 million km2, 1.32 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3728 on: August 21, 2023, 07:46:13 PM »
NSIDC 5 day average daily sea ice area data has been showing very high increases over the last few days, more than matching 2007's daily increases.

However, the one-day sea ice area data (from Nico Sun at https://cryospherecomputing.com/) is telling a somewhat different story, with the high increases reducing in recent days to a paltry +4k on this day. But what will happen tomorrow? Always a mystery at this time of year.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3729 on: August 22, 2023, 02:49:58 AM »
Scott Base will have 3 hours and 45 minutes of daylight time

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3730 on: August 22, 2023, 07:44:31 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,746,733 KM2 as at 21-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 56k, 14 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.80 million km2, 1.33 million km2, (8.8%) less than the 10 year average of 15.13 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 185 days this year

- Extent is  1,448 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,628 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,744 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,394 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,181 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,299 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  95.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 28 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.53 million km2, 1.48 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.75 million km2, 2.26 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.78 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.48 million KM2 or 190%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.45 million KM2, 86% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3731 on: August 22, 2023, 04:46:48 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,267,736 KM2 as at 21-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 43k, 11 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.21 million km2, 1.33 million km2 (10.6%) less than the 10 year average of 12.54 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 170 days this year

- AREA is  1,999 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,356 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,575 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,581 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,841 k (13.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,117 k (14.7%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,849 k LESS than 1980

- On average  95.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 27 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.27 million km2, 1.89 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.58 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.31 million KM2, 223%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.66 million KM2, 185% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, 92% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.85 million km2, 1.31 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3732 on: August 23, 2023, 05:24:32 AM »

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3733 on: August 23, 2023, 08:33:28 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,861,691 KM2 as at 22-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 115k, 70 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 45k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.91 million km2, 1.26 million km2, (8.3%) less than the 10 year average of 15.18 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 186 days this year

- Extent is  1,451 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,616 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,664 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,366 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,103 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,241 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  95.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 27 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.60 million km2, 1.41 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.86 million km2, 2.14 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.74 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.41 million KM2 or 191%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.46 million KM2, 99% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3734 on: August 23, 2023, 10:05:38 AM »
16.5 - 17 million sq kms  by 5th September?

1 -  1.5 million below previous record low ?

This could have a big effect on the minimum in February 2024 ...... hopefully the planes are off the Ross ice shelf by then .

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3735 on: August 23, 2023, 02:59:53 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,306,142 KM2 as at 22-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 38k, 10 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.25 million km2, 1.32 million km2 (10.5%) less than the 10 year average of 12.57 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 171 days this year

- AREA is  2,048 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,419 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,593 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,513 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,826 k (12.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,099 k (14.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,817 k LESS than 1980

- On average  95.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 26 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.31 million km2, 1.85 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.56 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.3 million KM2, 233%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.62 million KM2, 191% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, 97% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.86 million km2, 1.30 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3736 on: August 24, 2023, 09:26:54 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,891,602 KM2 as at 23-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 30k, 29 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.94 million km2, 1.29 million km2, (8.5%) less than the 10 year average of 15.24 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 187 days this year

- Extent is  1,545 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,667 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,705 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,421 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,103 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,255 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  95.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 26 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.57 million km2, 1.44 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.89 million km2, 2.11 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.68 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.44 million KM2 or 213%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.44 million KM2, 113% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3737 on: August 24, 2023, 01:41:59 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,350,854 KM2 as at 23-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 45k, 4 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.29 million km2, 1.32 million km2 (10.5%) less than the 10 year average of 12.61 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 172 days this year

- AREA is  2,049 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,478 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,581 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,475 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,810 k (12.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,087 k (14.5%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,804 k LESS than 1980

- On average  96.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 25 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.35 million km2, 1.81 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.52 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.29 million KM2, 251%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.56 million KM2, 204% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2015, 99% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.87 million km2, 1.29 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3738 on: August 25, 2023, 09:17:29 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,998,224 KM2 as at 24-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 107k, 74 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 33k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 14.05 million km2, 1.22 million km2, (8.0%) less than the 10 year average of 15.27 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 188 days this year

- Extent is  1,532 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,598 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,647 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,340 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,021 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,162 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  96.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 25 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.64 million km2, 1.36 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 16 million km2, 2.01 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.64 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.36 million KM2 or 212%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.29 million KM2, 100% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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HapHazard

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3739 on: August 25, 2023, 10:55:52 AM »
the little engine that won't
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3740 on: August 25, 2023, 03:10:28 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,405,358 KM2 as at 24-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 55k, 20 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.35 million km2, 1.30 million km2 (10.3%) less than the 10 year average of 12.65 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 173 days this year

- AREA is  2,001 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,486 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,569 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,429 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,775 k (12.5%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,057 k (14.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,769 k LESS than 1980

- On average  96.3% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 24 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.41 million km2, 1.75 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.48 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.27 million KM2, 265%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.48 million KM2, 208% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2012, 160% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.89 million km2, 1.27 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3741 on: August 26, 2023, 07:55:16 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,067,745 KM2 as at 25-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 70k, 1 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 69k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 14.12 million km2, 1.22 million km2, (8.0%) less than the 10 year average of 15.34 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 189 days this year

- Extent is  1,447 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,572 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,625 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,392 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,988 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,133 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  96.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 24 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.64 million km2, 1.36 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 16.07 million km2, 1.94 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.57 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.36 million KM2 or 238%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.17 million KM2, 104% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3742 on: August 26, 2023, 04:58:51 PM »
Antarctic sea ice definitely in catch-up mode at the moment

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,471,348 KM2 as at 25-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 66k, 42 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.41 million km2, 1.26 million km2 (9.9%) less than the 10 year average of 12.67 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 174 days this year

- AREA is  1,923 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,444 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,561 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,336 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,722 k (12.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,001 k (13.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,704 k LESS than 1980

- On average  96.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 23 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.47 million km2, 1.69 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.46 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.23 million KM2, 270%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.39 million KM2, 205% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2012, 177% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.93 million km2, 1.23 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3743 on: August 26, 2023, 09:06:07 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average): A look at the Southern Ocean regions - where there is a great deal of variation

BellinghausenAmundsen - sea ice gains continue at a high rate

Ross Sea - daily sea ice area lowest on this day and  in the satellite record for 32 days this year
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3744 on: August 26, 2023, 09:17:00 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average): A look at the rest of the Southern Ocean regions - where there is a great deal of variation

West Pacific - end of season wobbles?

Indian Ocean - daily sea ice area lowest on this day and in the satellite record for 77 days this year
                    - currently high daily sea ice gains

Weddell Sea  - daily sea ice area lowest on this day and in the satellite record for 108 days this year
                              - sea ice area currently stalled
The Weddell Sea has by far the greatest area of multi-year fast ice deep inside the embayment.
If a low maximum allows melt next summer to start eating away at that ice it would be a real gamechanger.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2023, 09:42:19 PM by gerontocrat »
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3745 on: August 27, 2023, 01:56:49 AM »
daylight hours are increasing at Scott Base   77' South

https://dateandtime.info/citysunrisesunset.php?id=6620787

Solar energy starting to compete with the freeze

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3746 on: August 27, 2023, 01:38:58 PM »
Antarctic sea ice area in serious catch-up mode

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,576,630 KM2 as at 26-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 105k, 87 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 18k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.52 million km2, 1.17 million km2 (9.2%) less than the 10 year average of 12.69 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 175 days this year

- AREA is  1,805 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,324 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,499 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,215 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,645 k (11.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,900 k (13.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,689 k LESS than 1980

- On average  96.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 22 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.58 million km2, 1.58 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.44 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.15 million KM2, 262%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.3 million KM2, 196% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2014, 186% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 13.01 million km2, 1.15 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3747 on: August 27, 2023, 01:42:33 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):

Much of the sea ice area gains are from very high daily gains in the BellinghausenAmundsen Sea
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3748 on: August 28, 2023, 07:28:02 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,231,787 KM2 as at 27-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 45k, 24 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 14.28 million km2, 1.11 million km2, (7.2%) less than the 10 year average of 15.39 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 191 days this year

- Extent is  1,307 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,323 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,538 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,285 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,903 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,023 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  96.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 22 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.75 million km2, 1.26 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 16.23 million km2, 1.77 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 0.52 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.26 million KM2 or 242%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.17 million KM2, 125% above the average (in 2007).
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore still almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3749 on: August 28, 2023, 10:56:09 PM »
Very high sea ice area gains continue with little sign from the one-day data of abating.

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,693,940 KM2 as at 27-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 117k, 93 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 11.63 million km2, 1.08 million km2 (8.5%) less than the 10 year average of 12.71 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 176 days this year

- AREA is  1,688 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,178 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,413 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,126 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,567 k (11.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,786 k (12.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,635 k LESS than 1980

- On average  96.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 21 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 12.69 million km2, 1.47 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.41 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.05 million KM2, 254%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.32 million KM2, 218% above the average (in 2014).The next highest gain was in 2007, 192%
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 13.11 million km2, 1.05 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)