Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[kiwichick16]

i would suggest that the late surge in area , which reduced the deficit at the maximum , resulted in ice which didn't have much time to thicken/ strengthen , before it was subject to increasing solar radiation.

This would suggest the deficit could increase again and the energy being absorbed by the open water could start a positive feedback loop

[Yuha]

Maybe the projections could be based on proportional rather than absolute losses. For example, if a given year loses 90% of ice from current date to minimum, the projection for this year is 90% loss too.

Note: This may work for melting seasons but freezing seasons should still use absolute gains.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,563,038 KM2 as at 24-Sep-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area loss on this day 27k, which is 22 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.81 million km2, 0.41 million km2, (104%) more than the 10 year average of 0.40 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 204 days this year

- AREA is  1,177 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,304 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,549 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,527 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,887 k (13.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,106 k (14.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 153 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 1.12 million km2, 0.15 million km2 above the 2023 record low minimum of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[oren]

I do think that while the current model is more complicated to implement (for which you deserve high praise), it is also closer to physical reality and gives better results.

A question for clarification and some "tire-kicking".
I see several years end up at 0.45, which leads me to assume that this is the model cutoff of 67% of the 21st century min.
A reverse calculation gives 0.67 for the 21st century min.
Did I get that correctly? The table shows a min of 0.73 but it only lists the years since 2005 so I assume 0.67 occurred sometime in 2000-2004.

[anaphylaxia]

How about instead of forecasting how low will the area/extent go forecast the probable date of the BOE (is it under 1M for Antarctica as well?) I fear that will be a more important metric in the coming years.

[gerontocrat]

I do think that while the current model is more complicated to implement (for which you deserve high praise), it is also closer to physical reality and gives better results.

A question for clarification and some "tire-kicking".
I see several years end up at 0.45, which leads me to assume that this is the model cutoff of 67% of the 21st century min.
A reverse calculation gives 0.67 for the 21st century min.
Did I get that correctly? The table shows a min of 0.73 but it only lists the years since 2005 so I assume 0.67 occurred sometime in 2000-2004.

Weddell 2006 minimum was  678,152 km2.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,598,062 KM2 as at 25-Sep-2023

- Extent loss on this day 33k, which is 27 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.39 million km2, 0.11 million km2, (40.4%) more than the 10 year average of 0.28 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 220 days this year

- Extent is  1,445 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,292 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  977 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,593 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,703 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,447 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,867 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,991 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 148 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[oren]

I do think that while the current model is more complicated to implement (for which you deserve high praise), it is also closer to physical reality and gives better results.

A question for clarification and some "tire-kicking".
I see several years end up at 0.45, which leads me to assume that this is the model cutoff of 67% of the 21st century min.
A reverse calculation gives 0.67 for the 21st century min.
Did I get that correctly? The table shows a min of 0.73 but it only lists the years since 2005 so I assume 0.67 occurred sometime in 2000-2004.

Weddell 2006 minimum was  678,152 km2.

Thanks, sorry I failed to see it in the table.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Antarctic 5 day trailing average - Minimum projections of the regional seas

Having made a long post about the Weddell Sea, I attach just the projections for the other 4 regions of the Antarctic ocean.

The constraint on the assumed maximum possible reduction in the minimum takes effect on all of the regions to a varying degree, being universal, i.e. for all years in the table , in the Ross & Indian Ocean regions.

[oren]

The Ross and Indian tables are amazing. Goes to show both how out of whack the current situation is, and why the limit projection model is necessary.

[Phil.]

The Weddell is the only area where a significantly above zero minimum might be expected unless there is a very unusual melting season.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,568,761 KM2 as at 25-Sep-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 6k, which is 12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.80 million km2, 0.40 million km2, (100%) more than the 10 year average of 0.40 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 205 days this year

- AREA is  1,160 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,295 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,488 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,507 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,849 k (12.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,096 k (14.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 152 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2023 of 1.13 million km2, 0.16 million km2 above the 2023 record low minimum of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[Unaffiliated]

205[/b] days this year

Can we get a count of consecutive days for daily lows? Last year record low conditions were present across the turn of the calendar year. How would this consecutive daily record streak compare to the arctic 2012?

[gerontocrat]

205[/b] days this year

Can we get a count of consecutive days for daily lows? Last year record low conditions were present across the turn of the calendar year. How would this consecutive daily record streak compare to the arctic 2012?

JAXA sea ice Extent data

Antarctic
Consecutive days at lowest 2023    160    20/04/23   26/09/23
2012 Arctic
Consecutive days at lowest              83  25/07/12   15/10/12

Given average melt will stay lowest until end of 2023 and well beyond.
Average melt has to fall well below average for 2016 extreme Nov Dec melt to take over No 1 position

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,559,678 KM2 as at 26-Sep-2023

- Extent loss on this day 38k, which is 59 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.43 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (66.9%) more than the 10 year average of 0.26 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 221 days this year

- Extent is  1,573 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,358 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,075 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,591 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,664 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,531 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,887 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,048 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 147 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:

The 7 day average of daily freeze and melt shows more clearly the late season surge in freeze followed immediately by fast melt of the late season sea ice.

[Unaffiliated]

JAXA sea ice Extent data

Antarctic
Consecutive days at lowest 2023    160    20/04/23   26/09/23
2012 Arctic
Consecutive days at lowest              83  25/07/12   15/10/12

Given average melt will stay lowest until end of 2023 and well beyond.
Average melt has to fall well below average for 2016 extreme Nov Dec melt to take over No 1 position

Thank you. I don't know why the data speaks louder to me in this expression. If this low anomaly continues across the turn of the year as it did last year and is reasonably prejected, I hope you choose to include this count in your daily extent and area post

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,601,642 KM2 as at 26-Sep-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 33k, which is 38 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.77 million km2, 0.36 million km2, (89%) more than the 10 year average of 0.41 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 206 days this year, and for 125 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  1,104 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,258 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,419 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,460 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,797 k (12.5%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,061 k (14.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.1% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 151 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.13 million km2, 0.16 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA & EXTENT(5 day trailing average):

While sea ice area is increasing, sea ice extent data is decreasing. The effect is a sudden uptick in sea ice conentration.

With extent going down and area going up it could mean sea ice is being spread out, making it more prone to melt as warmth head south.

[gerontocrat]

Whereupon JAXA data on this day shows an increase in sea ice extent of over 100k km2.

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,663,263 KM2 as at 27-Sep-2023

- Extent gain on this day 104k, which is 86 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 18k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.32 million km2, 0.09 million km2, (35.8%) more than the 10 year average of 0.24 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 222 days this year

- Extent is  1,662 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,256 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  966 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,419 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,456 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,396 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,774 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,966 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 146 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,637,208 KM2 as at 27-Sep-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 36k, which is 52 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.74 million km2, 0.31 million km2, (74%) more than the 10 year average of 0.42 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 207 days this year, and for 126 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  1,025 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,209 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,373 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,424 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,736 k (12.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,013 k (13.7%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 150 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.12 million km2, 0.15 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[oren]

Some discussion moved to the season thread.

[gerontocrat]

The last two days of very high sea ice extent gains have had as yet no influence on the results in the modified projections table Ant-1.

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,748,872 KM2 as at 28-Sep-2023

- Extent gain on this day 86k, which is 72 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.24 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (5.8%) more than the 10 year average of 0.22 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 223 days this year

- Extent is  1,759 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,196 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  933 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,315 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,339 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,292 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,675 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,892 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 145 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,168,069 KM2 as at 28-Sep-2023

- Extent gain on this day 95k, which is 37 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.67 million km2, 1.14 million km2, 16.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.81 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 159 days this year

- Extent is  4.95 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  2.30 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  1.81 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1.51 million km2 LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1.60 million km2 LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1.49 million km2 LESS than 2019
- Extent is  1.92 million km2 LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1.84 million km2 LESS than 2022

On average 77.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 36 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2023 of 23.20 million km2, 0.57 million km2 below the record low of 23.76 million KM2 in 2016, and at position #1 in the 45 year satellite record
__________________________________________________________
There are only 4 years out of the last 18 where sea ice gains from now would make the 2023 maximum greater than the record low of 23.76 million km2 in 2016. Therefore history says the possibility of a new record low this year is 7 to 2.
___________________________________________________
In an average year sea ice reaches the false maximum in late June/ early July and the false minimum in early September, and then sea ice extent is makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November
This year, the false maximum was  reached on the  18th July at 21.76 million km2.
This was the lowest false maximum in the 45 year satellite record, 1.23 million km2 below the previous record low in 2019 of 22.99.
The lowest false minimum was in 2012 at 21.91 million km2. The 2023 false minimum was  20.49 million km2, 1.42 million km2 below this previous record low.
___________________________________________________
In 2016 the maximum for the year was reached on the 7th July at 23.76 million km2, 0.13 million km2 more than the November maximum of 23.63 million .
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,779,540 KM2 as at 29-Sep-2023

- Extent gain on this day 31k, which is 41 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.21 million km2, 0.03 million km2, (11.8%) less than the 10 year average of 0.23 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 224 days this year

- Extent is  1,859 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,150 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  927 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,267 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,262 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,186 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,636 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,867 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 144 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

The increase in sea ice area seems to start to look like a trend, and at the moment Nico Sun's one day area graphs show the same - convential wisdom seems to have it that an El Nino can have a cooling effect on ocean temperatures in the Southern Ocean, so maybe......

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,749,336 KM2 as at 29-Sep-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 75k, which is 83 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.62 million km2, 0.18 million km2, (41%) more than the 10 year average of 0.44 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 209 days this year, and for 128 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  836 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,097 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,249 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,322 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,591 k (11.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,894 k (12.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 148 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.14 million km2, 0.17 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,757,784 KM2 as at 30-Sep-2023

- Extent loss on this day 22k, which is 11 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 11k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.23 million km2, 0.02 million km2, (6.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.24 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 225 days this year

- Extent is  1,923 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,213 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  976 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,276 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,250 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,116 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,656 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,891 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 143 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,821,424 KM2 as at 30-Sep-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 72k, which is 85 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.55 million km2, 0.10 million km2, (21%) more than the 10 year average of 0.46 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 210 days this year, and for 129 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  713 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  998 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,172 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,212 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,518 k (10.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,826 k (12.5%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 147 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.15 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):

Another month gone, so here is a look at what happened in September.

The September Monthly Average sea ice Area was 12.98 million km2, lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 1.56 million km2 below the longterm linear trend, and 1.09 million km2 below the Sept '22 average.

The 365 day trailing sea ice area average on Sept 3oth was 7.45 million km2, a  decline of 87k km2 in the month, and is now 0.47 million below the previous record low in October 2017, and 1.42 million km2 below the longterm linear trend.

If daily sea ice area change is at the 10 year average, the average would decline by a further 0.5 million km2 in the next 12 months.

Uncharted waters indeed.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,735,266 KM2 as at 01-Oct-2023

- Extent loss on this day 23k, which is 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 17k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.25 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (4.3%) less than the 10 year average of 0.26 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 226 days this year

- Extent is  1,965 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,251 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  983 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,264 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,282 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,065 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,686 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,903 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 142 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,878,908 KM2 as at 01-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 57k, which is 71 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.49 million km2, 0.02 million km2, (5%) more than the 10 year average of 0.47 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 211 days this year, and for 130 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  621 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  909 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,119 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,137 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,460 k (10.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,768 k (12.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 146 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.17 million km2, 0.20 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):

& attached are the projections of the minimum when there is no constraint on the minimum in the calculation.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,745,510 KM2 as at 02-Oct-2023

- Extent gain on this day 10k, which is 30 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.24 million km2, 0.04 million km2, (14.7%) less than the 10 year average of 0.28 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 227 days this year, and for 166 consecutive days since 20-Apr-2023.

- Extent is  1,966 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,202 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  980 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,233 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,311 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,059 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,673 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,872 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 141 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,723,796 KM2 as at 03-Oct-2023

- Extent loss on this day 22k, which is 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.26 million km2, 0.03 million km2, (9.4%) less than the 10 year average of 0.29 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 228 days this year, and for 167 consecutive days since 20-Apr-2023

- Extent is  1,987 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,219 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,046 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,275 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,329 k LESS than 2021
- Extent is  1,117 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,682 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  1,884 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and about 140 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.31 million km2, 0.64 million km2 BELOW the 2023 record low minimum of 1.95 million km2 which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
Note that the projected minimum for each year is constrained by a maximum 33% reduction to the current 21st Century record low
_______________________________________________________________
Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,968,924 KM2 as at 03-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 39k, which is 43 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.40 million km2, 0.07 million km2, (15%) less than the 10 year average of 0.48 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 213 days this year, and for 132 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  581 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  747 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,110 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,084 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,390 k (9.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,677 k (11.5%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 144 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.17 million km2, 0.20 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Looks like the Antarctic sea ice may be about to resume the melting season

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,976,184 KM2 as at 04-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 7k, which is 12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.40 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (17%) less than the 10 year average of 0.48 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 214 days this year, and for 133 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  602 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  699 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,179 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,093 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,376 k (9.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,668 k (11.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 143 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.13 million km2, 0.16 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,978,240 KM2 as at 05-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 2k, which is 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.39 million km2, 0.09 million km2, (19%) less than the 10 year average of 0.49 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 215 days this year, and for 134 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  624 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  693 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,227 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,090 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,361 k (9.5%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,663 k (11.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 142 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.10 million km2, 0.13 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,988,304 KM2 as at 06-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area gain on this day 10k, which is 22 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 12k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.38 million km2, 0.11 million km2, (23%) less than the 10 year average of 0.50 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 216 days this year, and for 135 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  608 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  669 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,235 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,054 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,323 k (9.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,646 k (11.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 3.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 141 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.10 million km2, 0.13 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

While we await JAXA (ADS) coming back on line, here is some JAXA (ADS-VISHOP) data from a resurrected spreadsheet.. While sea ice area is still not resuming the melting season, sea ice extent continues to decline.

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE Extent (5 day trailing average):  16,700,978 KM2 as at 06-Oct-2023

- Extent loss on this day 36k, which is 24 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 12k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.26 million km2, 0.01 million km2, (2%) more than the 10 year average of 0.25 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 239th day this year, and for 161 consecutive days.

- Extent is  1,411 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,293 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,467 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,262 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,592 k (8.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,041 k (10.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 141 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC Extent-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice Extent minimum in Feb 2024 of 0.73 million km2, 1.06 million km2 below the 2023 record low minimum of 1.79 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE Extent (5 day trailing average):  16,700,978 KM2 as at 06-Oct-2023

The September monthly average at 16.78 million km2 is lowest in the satellite recird by far, being 1.71 million km2 below the linear trend and 1.26 million km2 below the Sept '22 average.

With only 3 months of the year to go, the annual average daily sea ice extent is virtually cdertain to be a record low - the only question remaining is "by how much"

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE Extent (5 day trailing average):

In the last month the 365 day trailing average has fallen by 0.11 million km2 to 10.04 million km2, which is 0.51 million km2 below the previous record low in Dec 21, and 1.62 million km2 below the longterm linear trend.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,957,675 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area loss on this day 17k, which is 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.42 million km2, 0.14 million km2, (25%) less than the 10 year average of 0.55 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 218 days this year, and for 137 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  547 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  688 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,209 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  986 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,308 k (9.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,650 k (11.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 139 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.11 million km2, 0.14 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE Extent (5 day trailing average):  16,620,776 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2023

- Extent loss on this day 36k, which is 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.34 million km2, 0.05 million km2, (16%) more than the 10 year average of 0.29 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 241th day this year, and for 163 consecutive days.

- Extent is  1,401 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,453 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,564 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,317 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,622 k (8.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,087 k (11.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 1.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 139 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC Extent-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice Extent minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.20 million km2, 0.59 million km2 below the 2023 record low minimum of 1.79 million km2.
The projections have been modified to restrict the minimum in each year to 67% of the record 21st century low to date or above.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,902,640 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area loss on this day 55k, which is 29 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.47 million km2, 0.11 million km2, (18%) less than the 10 year average of 0.58 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 219 days this year, and for 138 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  560 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  744 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,199 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,004 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,355 k (9.5%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,681 k (11.5%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.3% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 138 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.13 million km2, 0.16 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[kassy]

It will be interesting to see how strong the early losses are. Since quite a bit of the ice is from last seasons end sprint it´s probably not that thick.

[gerontocrat]

Today I have restricted the projected minimum in each year to 50% of the record low to date just to see if it makes much difference.

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE Extent (5 day trailing average):  16,588,541 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2023

- Extent loss on this day 32k, which is 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.37 million km2, 0.06 million km2, (18%) more than the 10 year average of 0.31 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for 242 days this year, and for 164 consecutive days.

- Extent is  1,370 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,510 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,566 k LESS than 2006
- Extent is  1,341 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  1,641 k (9.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,096 k (11.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 2.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 138 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC Extent-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice Extent minimum in Feb 2024 of 0.90 million km2, 0.89 million km2 below the 2023 record low minimum of 1.79 million km2.
The projections have been modified to restrict the minimum in each year to 50% of the record 21st century low to date or above.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,823,172 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area loss on this day 79k, which is 55 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.55 million km2, 0.05 million km2, (8%) less than the 10 year average of 0.60 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 220 days this year, and for 139 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  602 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  800 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,235 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,061 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,419 k (10.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,731 k (11.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.5% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 137 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.15 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  12,724,775 KM2 as at 11-Oct-2023

N.B. Projections are based on the sum of the results for each of the 5 regional seas

- Area loss on this day 98k, which is 72 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- AREA loss from maximum on this date is 0.65 million km2, 0.02 million km2, (3%) more than the 10 year average of 0.63 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 221 days this year, and for 140 consecutive days since 25-May-2023

- AREA is  669 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  881 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,297 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,118 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,520 k (10.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  1,795 k (12.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average 4.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and on average about 136 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC ANTARCTIC AREA-1)
The projections in this post are the sum of the projections for each of the 5 regions. When individual years in individual regions produce a result for the minimum of less than 67% of the 21st Century minimum, that is the minimum used

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a sea ice area minimum in Feb 2024 of 1.14 million km2, 0.17 million km2 above the record low sum of the 2023 5 regions minima of 0.97 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Without modification, the projection (from the last 10 years average sea ice loss) of the minimum still approaches zero, which would require a catastrophic loss of multi-year fast ice in the Weddell Sea.

[kiwichick16]

@  gero  .....do we have an idea of volume of ice in the Weddell Sea ?