JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,648,269 km2(February 12, 2019)
Extent loss of 48k, 14k more than the average loss of 34k for this day.
Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum
Extent loss from maximum is 393k km2 (2.5%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 98.9% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 7 days to minimum (19th February).
The Perils of Projections
We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero. On the 5th February the linear projection was for a minimum on the 12th February, with an R2 correlation of 0.7 usually reckoned of some meaning. Now the projection is a minimum on the 5th March, with an R2 correlation of 0.14 usually reckoned as meaningless.
The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 320k km2 more than the record low in 2017. Using the average remaining melt from this day to minimum of the 2016 to 2018 years would give a minimum of 2.55 million km2, 400k km2 more than the record low in 2017.
Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone, the remaining ice being solid and close to the coast, melt has been below average every day for well over one month - until the last 2 days. Late season extra melt? Maybe, maybe not.