JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 17,626,202 km2(August 23, 2019)
Things are changing - slowly but persistently
- In the last week extent gains mostly above average.
- As a result 2019 is now 6th lowest in the satellite record (was lowest for 84 days this year).
- Extent is above 2018, 2017, 2008, 2007, and 2003, and all by small amounts. See Table Ant3),
- Extent gain on this day 68 k, a variation of 29 k from the average gain of 39 k on this day,
- Extent gain from minimum is 14.201 million km2, 0.007 million km2 (0.0%) MORE than the average of 15.194 million km2 by this day,
- 95.6% of average extent gain done, with 27 days to the average date of maximum (19 Sept).
The Perils of Projections
From this date to maximum both 2003 and 2007 gained extent far above average.
Remaining average freeze of the last 10 years gives a max of 18.32 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record (above 2017, 2018 and 2008), 0.24 million km2 greater than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
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** 2008 was an outlier low maximum extent year.
In contrast, it looks likely 2019 will be the 4th year of a stabilised low Antarctic maximum of between 18 and 18.5 million km2. Or will it?
Speculation..
On another thread, there is a posting about an unusual warming event expected in early September in part of the Antarctic Stratosphere. Could this cause a change in the troposphere temperatures affecting sea ice formation or melting in the Antarctic Spring?