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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1400 on: April 03, 2020, 12:18:26 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT - MONTHLY AVERAGES

being in isolation means some tidying up is possible.

Here are monthly averages for Jan, Feb, March 1979-2020, with deviations from the linear trend.

Note:-
Al graphs show...
- the R2 value is vanishingly small,
- the linear trend is a miniscule annual increase,
- the deviations from the linear trend (both +ve & -ve) get greater as the years go by.

So what is one supposed to make of that?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1401 on: April 08, 2020, 09:53:51 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 5,746,534 km2(April 7, 2020)

Extent gain in the last few days much more below than above average.

- 2019 is 17th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 2.99 million km2, 0.04 million (1.4%) LESS than the 10 year average of 3.03 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,327 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is   472 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is   899 k more than 2019 on this day,
- Extent is 92 k more than the 1980's average on this day,

and Extent on this day is more than in 9 of the years before 2002,

- 23.4% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 166 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.9 million km2, 0.63 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
__________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1402 on: April 12, 2020, 08:44:52 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,091,776 km2(April 11, 2020)

Extent gain in the last few days is once again much more below than above average.

- 2019 is 16th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 3.33 million km2, 0.11 million (3.2%) LESS than the 10 year average of 3.44 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,254 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is   443 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is   917 k more than 2019 on this day,
- Extent is 44 k more than the 1980's average on this day,

and Extent on this day is more than in 8 of the years before 2000,

- 27.4% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 162 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.63 million km2, 0.57 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
__________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1403 on: April 16, 2020, 12:29:49 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,413,989 km2(April 15, 2020)

Daily extent gain so far this month persistently much more below than above average.

- 2019 is 16th 12th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 3.65 million km2, 0.21 million (5.3%) LESS than the 10 year average of 3.86 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,105 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is    512 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is    807 k more than 2019 on this day,
- Extent is  53 k more less than the 1980's average on this day,

and Extent on this day is more than in just 5 of the years before 2000,

- 32% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 158 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.53 million km2, 0.47 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
__________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1404 on: April 18, 2020, 07:32:40 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,545,195 km2(April 17, 2020)

Daily extent gain so far this month persistently much more below than above average.

- 2019 is 16th 12th 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain from minimum to date 3.79 million km2, 0.34 million (8.3%) LESS than the 10 year average of 4.13 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,023 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is    423 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is    723 k more than 2019 on this day,
- Extent is   148 k less than the 1980's average on this day,

and Extent on this day is more than in just 3 of the years before 2000,

- 26% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 156 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.39 million km2, 0.33 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.
__________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1405 on: April 25, 2020, 08:07:17 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,372,464 KM2 as at 24-Apr-2020

- Extent gain on this day 138k, 18 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 120k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 4.61 million km2, 0.22 million km2, (4.6%) less than the 10 year average of 4.83 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record
- Extent is higher than in 5 of the years before 2000.
- Extent is  774 k MORE than 2019,

On average 30.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 149 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.52 million km2, 0.46 million km2 above the 2017 maximum of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1406 on: April 26, 2020, 11:52:54 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,511,964 KM2 as at 25-Apr-2020

- Extent gain on this day 140k, 16 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 124k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 4.75 million km2, 0.21 million km2, (4.1%) less than the 10 year average of 4.96 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 5 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  -673 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,005 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  853 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,007 k MORE than 2019

- On average 31.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 148 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.53 million km2, 0.47 million km2 above the 2017 maximum of 18.06 million km2.
_______________________________
After a long period of mostly well below average extent gain, freezing has accelerated..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1407 on: May 01, 2020, 01:04:21 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,108,934 KM2 as at 30-Apr-2020

- Extent gain on this day 104k, -2 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 106k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.35 million km2, 0.12 million km2, (2.3%) less than the 10 year average of 5.47 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 5 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  -423 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  1,094 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  976 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,180 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  77 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 34.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 143 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.61 million km2, 0.55 million km2 above the 2017 maximum of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1408 on: May 01, 2020, 01:08:50 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: April Monthly Average

In common with other months, the monthly average graph shows that the variation of extent between years has increased considerably in recent years. Does this suggest the climate & ocean dynamics in the Southern Ocean are becoming more unstable?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1409 on: May 01, 2020, 01:28:05 PM »
In some formerly stable systems with an intrinsic variability a move towards a tipping point can result in higher variability of the observed values, maybe even with erratic deviations from the long-term trendlines. It is above my pay grade to decide whether Antartic Sea Ice is in (or moves towards) such a state.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1410 on: May 03, 2020, 11:33:05 PM »
NSIDC have recently started to post daily extent and area data of Antarctic sea ice by region.
You can find it @ https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/
(see first attached image).

I also attach a map of the 5 Antarctic Regional seas. It does help to know where things are.

I also attach a graph to show how stable things were until 2016.

& finally the sea ice area graph for the seas in total. Regional data starts tomorrow.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1411 on: May 04, 2020, 08:24:50 PM »
And here are the area graphs for  the seas excluding BeliingHausen-Amundsen, which is on the western shore of Antarctica from the tip of the Peninsula to 135 West (see next post).

Of note is that for all of these seas there is a marginal increase in the maximum over the decades, and it is at and around maximum that becomes noisy, i.e. significant ups and downs in area.

At and around minimum the graph lines are smooth curves.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1412 on: May 04, 2020, 08:43:05 PM »
BellingHausen -Amundsen Sea.

It is on the land which this sea borders where the most dramatic ice-sheet melting is happening. The theory, often quoted by AbruptSLR, is that these high and increasing melt volumes are spreading over the bordering ocean as a relatively thin layer of close to freezing fresh water. Being  fresh water, it is less dense than the relatively warmer sea-water underneath. This encourages formation of additional sea ice.

It is in this sea that one can see the most pronounced increase in the 2010's average maximum. A demonstration of the theory?

It is also in this sea that the variations in sea ice at & around maximum are most pronounced within years and between years. Which brings me to the speculation that belongs to me.

We have on the one hand a process pushing sea ice and therefore cold, further North.
But there is AGW, heating the oceans & the atmosphere in the tropics & beyond. And no matter how slowly, heat moves inexorably from the tropics to the poles. This must increase the temperature gradient between the southward moving warmth and the northward moving cold, and where they meet must be very high energy weather.

As long as AGW continues (and for many years after CO2 emissions stop rising), I'm putting my money on warmth triumphing in the end.

So what matter for Antarctic Sea Ice is not the minimum, but the maximum. I've been looking at the wrong thing all these years. The same applies to sea ice in the Arctic Peripheral seas - what matters is the continuous reduction in sea ice at maximum.


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oren

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1413 on: May 05, 2020, 10:23:06 AM »
Thanks for these charts. I think a lot of the warmth moving towards Antarctica is below the ocean surface, so the maximum will not necessarily tell you about it. But it should be interesting to follow these trends.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1414 on: May 08, 2020, 12:48:51 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,721,813 KM2 as at 07-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 86k, -42 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 128k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.96 million km2, 0.36 million km2, (5.6%) less than the 10 year average of 6.32 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 5 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  -487 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  896 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  541 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,010 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  -119 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 39.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 136 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.38 million km2, 0.32 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
In the week before last, extent gains well above average
In this week, extent gains well below average.
Predictions are even more perilous.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1415 on: May 12, 2020, 11:14:29 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,229,723 KM2 as at 11-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 89k, -13 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 102k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.47 million km2, 0.27 million km2, (4.0%) less than the 10 year average of 6.74 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 5 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  280 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  907 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  637 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,037 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  135 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 42.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 132 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.47 million km2, 0.41 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 11:30:42 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1416 on: May 13, 2020, 09:30:20 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,288,089 KM2 as at 12-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 58k, -62 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 120k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.53 million km2, 0.33 million km2, (4.8%) less than the 10 year average of 6.86 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 5 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  290 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  813 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  537 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,001 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  196 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 42.9% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 131 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.41 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 02:46:39 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1417 on: May 15, 2020, 11:02:36 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,457,655 KM2 as at 14-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 57k, -55 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 112k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.70 million km2, 0.41 million km2, (5.8%) less than the 10 year average of 7.11 million km2.
- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record of which 4 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  365 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  706 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  366 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  957 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  200 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 44.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 129 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.35 million km2, 0.29 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1418 on: May 16, 2020, 09:02:55 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,527,341 KM2 as at 15-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 70k, -43 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 113k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.77 million km2, 0.46 million km2, (6.3%) less than the 10 year average of 7.22 million km2.
- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record of which 4 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  400 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  617 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  324 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  937 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  195 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 45.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 128 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.35 million km2, 0.29 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1419 on: May 17, 2020, 10:25:49 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,625,663 KM2 as at 16-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 98k, -28 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 126k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.87 million km2, 0.48 million km2, (6.6%) less than the 10 year average of 7.35 million km2.
- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record of which 3 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  452 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  592 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  293 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  922 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  223 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 46.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 127 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.25 million km2, 0.19 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1420 on: May 22, 2020, 10:38:28 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,311,356 KM2 as at 21-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 151k, 37 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 114k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 7.55 million km2, 0.35 million km2, (4.4%) less than the 10 year average of 7.90 million km2.
- Extent is at position #13 in the satellite record of which 6 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  275 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  790 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  274 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  964 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  76 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 49.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 122 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.39 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1421 on: May 26, 2020, 12:08:54 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,840,929 KM2 as at 25-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 110k, 30 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.08 million km2, 0.24 million km2, (2.8%) less than the 10 year average of 8.32 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 9 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  041 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  956 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  579 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  997 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  55 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 52.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 118 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.50 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
In the last week daily sea ice extent gains well above average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1422 on: June 01, 2020, 02:34:38 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,575,710 KM2 as at 31-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 126k, 15 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 111k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.82 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (0.9%) less than the 10 year average of 8.90 million km2.
- Extent is at position #15 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  464 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  980 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  603 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,176 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  112 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 55.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 112 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.65 million km2, 0.59 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
Mostly above sea ice extent gains in the last week.
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1423 on: June 01, 2020, 02:55:39 PM »
The May monthly average ended up somewhat below the linear trend - which has an R2 value of 0.00.

Those who wish to find a trend are welcome to try
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1424 on: June 02, 2020, 02:15:54 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,781,319 KM2 as at 01-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 206k, 89 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 117k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9.02 million km2, -0.01 million km2, -(0.1%) more than the 10 year average of 9.02 million km2.
- Extent is at position #18 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  514 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  1,103 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  690 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,280 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  251 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 56.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 111 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.74 million km2, 0.68 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
A double century extent increase
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1425 on: June 07, 2020, 01:33:54 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,188,359 KM2 as at 06-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 95k, -27 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 122k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9.43 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1.7%) less than the 10 year average of 9.59 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  077 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  738 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  593 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,080 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  75 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 60.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 106 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.58 million km2, 0.52 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1426 on: June 09, 2020, 10:34:32 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,382,431 KM2 as at 08-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 74k, -41 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 115k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9.62 million km2, 0.20 million km2, (2.0%) less than the 10 year average of 9.82 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  035 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  639 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  447 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  993 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  64 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 61.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 104 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.54 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
In June so far more below than above average extent increases.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1427 on: June 15, 2020, 01:58:32 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,125,212 KM2 as at 14-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 150k, 41 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 109k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.37 million km2, 0.08 million km2, (0.8%) less than the 10 year average of 10.45 million km2.
- Extent is at position #21 in the satellite record of which 14 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  022 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  908 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  358 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,139 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  157 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 65.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 98 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.66 million km2, 0.60 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
This week gone back to mostly well above average daily extent gains - as is the case for the last month or so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1428 on: June 17, 2020, 11:41:06 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,307,804 KM2 as at 16-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 65k, -41 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 106k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.55 million km2, 0.14 million km2, (1.3%) less than the 10 year average of 10.69 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  053 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  778 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  346 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,157 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  59 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 66.9% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 96 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.60 million km2, 0.54 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1429 on: June 18, 2020, 02:37:27 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,334,573 KM2 as at 17-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 27k, -72 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 99k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.58 million km2, 0.21 million km2, (2.0%) less than the 10 year average of 10.79 million km2.
- Extent is at position #14 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  99 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  735 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  357 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  1,092 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  36 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 67.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 95 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.53 million km2, 0.47 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1430 on: June 21, 2020, 11:29:18 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,590,668 KM2 as at 20-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 108k, 12 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 96k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.83 million km2, 0.24 million km2, (2.2%) less than the 10 year average of 11.07 million km2.
- Extent is at position #13 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  188 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  821 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  301 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  981 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  76 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 69.3% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 92 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.50 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1431 on: June 25, 2020, 09:53:17 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,052,320 KM2 as at 24-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 66k, -13 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 79k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.29 million km2, 0.16 million km2, (1.4%) less than the 10 year average of 11.46 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  46 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  821 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  326 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  948 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  1 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 71.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 88 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.57 million km2, 0.51 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
No drama -
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1432 on: June 26, 2020, 08:43:21 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,102,139 KM2 as at 25-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 50k, -39 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 89k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.34 million km2, 0.20 million km2, (1.8%) less than the 10 year average of 11.55 million km2.
- Extent is at position #14 in the satellite record of which 8 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  63 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  809 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  256 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  857 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  40 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 72.3% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 87 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.53 million km2, 0.47 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1433 on: June 30, 2020, 10:40:23 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,447,175 KM2 as at 29-Jun-2020

- Extent gain on this day 55k, -37 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 92k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.69 million km2, 0.24 million km2, (2.0%) less than the 10 year average of 11.92 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 6 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  101 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  878 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  179 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  770 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  118 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 74.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 83 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.50 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1434 on: July 01, 2020, 09:16:40 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,484,667 KM2 as at 30-Jun-2020

The month ends with a bit of a flourish - 2 days of very low extent gains.

- Extent gain on this day 37k, 44 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 81k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.73 million km2, 0.28 million km2, (2.3%) less than the 10 year average of 12.00 million km2.
- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record of which 6 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  157 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  852 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  099 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  767 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  188 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 75.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 82 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.46 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1435 on: July 01, 2020, 09:25:41 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  JUNE AVERAGE GRAPH


I attach the June monthly average graph. The 2020 Average was 13.18 million km2, some 1.02 million km2 above 2019. It was also 252k below the linear trend of an increase of 3.4k per year. But as the R2 value of the trend is a measly 0.01, not really significant.

I also attache the plume of projections to the maximum from the last 10 years of remaining extent gains. The range of maxima is more than 1.5 million km2.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1436 on: July 03, 2020, 12:31:19 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,606,667 KM2 as at 02-Jul-2020

- Extent gain on this day 51k, 25 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 76k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.85 million km2, 0.33 million km2, (2.7%) less than the 10 year average of 12.17 million km2.
- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record of which 4 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  225 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  734 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  014 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  711 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  259 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 76.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 80 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.41 million km2, 0.35 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
A week of mostly below average extent gains changes the extent from 17th to 10th lowest in the satellite record
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1437 on: July 07, 2020, 10:46:37 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,087,784 KM2 as at 06-Jul-2020

- Extent gain on this day 58k, 45 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 103k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.33 million km2, 0.19 million km2, (1.5%) less than the 10 year average of 12.52 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 9 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  193 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  799 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  180 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  757 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  68 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 78.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 76 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.54 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Reply #1438 on: July 12, 2020, 10:38:15 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,405,526 KM2 as at 11-Jul-2020

- Extent gain on this day 45k, 30 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 75k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.65 million km2, 0.25 million km2, (1.9%) less than the 10 year average of 12.89 million km2.
- Extent is at position #14 in the satellite record of which 7 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  295 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  745 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  115 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  508 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  117 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 80.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 71 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.49 million km2, 0.43 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)